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tv   Inside Story 2018 Ep 186  Al Jazeera  July 5, 2018 8:32pm-8:51pm +03

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in this and you want to do nothing up to now you've gone has actually shown a lot of restraint even though the americans decided to believe the deal irani is at least attempting to continue to deal with the europeans nevertheless the trumpet ministration is trying to make that very difficult and we'll have to wait and see to actually see what the europeans would be able to do not to celebrate is iran to be applauded for standing up to the trump of ministration here by issuing a threat of a veiled like this or you think it's panicking no it is not panicking iran is an independent country and every independent company has the legal right to defend its interests the forthcoming american sanctions against iran are considered a war declared efficient economy and trade war declared against iran and iran has to defend itself when its say is that if it is prevented
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from exporting its and or an oil it will prevent others from benefiting from their exports now that was taken as a threat to close the strait of hurdlers and that threat should be taken seriously because closing it doesn't mean physically closing it it means minding it with the hope that one will hit a mine and that will fry it in other than cars from coming through the gulf or by an iranian threat to damage it tanker or some bankers which are prevent tank at us from all around the word from coming to the gulf area across the state of our owners and thus. preventing oil supplies coming out it will have the same effect on. of an oil prices by raising oil prices
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possibly one to one twenty one thirty dollars during the crisis but of course prices will go back to normal afterwards so the threat should be taken seriously and there are other methods iran can use and a member of that there are several tadg methods which it i can use and saudi arabia has the biggest oil is set is sions in the eastern part of saudi arabia on the gulf so any sub with cash bought a ticket in the us and nora the biggest loading being held in the world would impact very effectively on saudi exports to add to that and remember that most of the gulf countries have no other that they have but to use the set of formulas with the exception of the united out up and that it which has built three
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years ago its on oil pipeline from abu dhabi to fujairah thus bypassing the state of total miles all the out as have to pass with their export through the strait of hormuz saudi arabia has a bit of usa in having and and in the oil pipeline from the east on pot of gumbo are on their red sea which was built with iraqi money during the iraq iran war it had a capacity of two million barrels a day but i understand that this out is a quietly increasing capacity to four billion that would still be around fifty per cent or less of saudi oil exports so all in all the threat should be taken seriously and. phase of the world should try to deal with victimizes and that full and peaceful and wise way ok tactful peaceful and wise some may have the
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a week we could get that sort of response do you think from from any of the countries involved here what do you make of of washington's warnings to other nations to stop imports of iranian oil when u.s. sanctions against iran go into effect on in or else. that's bullying tactics isn't it. it is bullying tactics and trump is an expert to these bullying tactics however what is interesting is that we now live in an age where u.s. is no longer the sole head german of the world you have the likes of china and russia standing up to us foreign policy does not implying that they are knights in shining armor but it's the reality that there is more of a power equilibrium being established in the world the reason why i say this is because what's very interesting is that india has already stated that it is more inclined not to obey the sanctions on iran china itself has indicated that it may
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not accept the sanctions on iran and the e.u. is contemplating how to save the new can a deal france in particular wants airbus to benefit from its deals with iran and is desperately seeking some sort of arrangement the washington is aware of this and the proof of that is that trump has recently announced that he will assess the sanctions case on a case by case basis suggesting that there is room for leeway for opening up certain sectors or or preventing certain sectors from being subject to sanctions trumper should be well aware perhaps he is one of or at least his policy advisers will be well aware that this time implemented ascensions will be far more difficult because the world to jump on the iran nuclear deal it sped to sign agreements with iran and now all of a sudden it's been told it's not allowed to implement them so i think washington is in a very difficult position when it comes to iran in terms of trying to keep the line of allies in check and as i said earlier remember he's made
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a very very big problem with the e.u. i mean let's look at the the dutch prime minister's visit to washington whereby trump said you know what if this is just a problem and then we'll sort it out and the dutch prime minister rebuked him in front of the reporters something that's perhaps some would say unprecedented to be done in the white house in such a manner suggesting there are very deep divisions so even if true. wants to implement sanctions on iran i don't think countries are going to rush to obey these particular sanctions and i don't think the us will necessarily have the clout it once had to to enforce those sanctions on the likes of china on the e.u. and the russian and india and. as we said at the beginning of the program foreign ministers from france germany britain china russia are meeting with the iranian officials in vienna on friday how key are the responses of european states in particular to these threats and counter threats those who vowed to stay
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in the iran nuclear deal in particular. i think it's very important i think it iran's reaction will very much depend on how the europeans decide to go forward. the e.u. is supposed to give iran a so-called package on friday and iran was says whether iran will stay in the deal or not we have to remember that when donald trump decided to leave the deal the rouhani government came under a lot of criticism domestically within iran because prior to trump leaving the deal rowhani had actually threatened that if the united states withdraws than an iran would also withdraw and that's not something iran has done of course so so iran is really waiting to see what the europeans will do whether they will be able to keep at least hope for the a major part of the deal the problem here is that donald trump does not only did not only decide that he wants to withdraw from the deal but
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essentially that he wants to kill the deal so he's implementing all these sanctions . maybe from his part to hope that iran would withdraw regardless of the europeans and i think this package will really much depend on what iran's reaction will very much depend on what the europeans will do on friday. from the. president has been treating criticism of opec members say that they must reduce prices and that the u.s. defends them for very little dollars what do you make of that does the president misunderstand how the oil market works. absolutely spot on he doesn't add that to stand the mesh initiations of the global oil market a case in point is he claimed he tweeted that saudi arabia can add two million but is it a he got mixed up between spare capacity and ability to produce or you know and
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despite so he is to some extent not of faith with the economics of oil furthermore he is talking putting a pressure on up it to reduce prices but he forgets that do not the states has been minute manipulating oil prices all these seeds years through the petro dollar when if there is the value of developer or reduces it and through claims about how increases how greatly increasing u.s. share oil production in admission to claims about eight pieces own crude and put it back invented it and do that since all of them intended as a ploy to depress or to prices but he failed completely because the global oil market has seen through it talking over importance is that since the sanctions.
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in the global oil market has changed go bleakly in twenty sixth of march this year china lowish the petro yuan and in the first two hours over the slow shit it over it has over the a can the brant exchange and now it accounts for twelve per cent of the top at a global oil market estimated at fourteen trillion before the end of the year it will hit fifty percent and it will undermine the petro that out of completely and that's why i. i have been saying frequently that sanctions on iran when up course it is single better of all a loss it is a the twenty fiftieth's sanctions before twenty fifteen succeeded is b.s. for two reasons the european union then impose sanctions on any company is
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insurance companies or cowgirl companies transporting iran's oil export the autopia neon is not going to do that now and they and mouse they will comply with their with the. nuclear agreement and they will continue to buy in iranian oil exports as for us sanctions on banking and preventing iran like in twenty fifty and from getting payment for its oil exports in dela iran doesn't believe that because all oil exports of that's the majority of its oil exports go to china it would be paid by the better you are and will kiss up book and buy gold it will be a big buy you are all from the european union and buy bought out of three of with russia and india all right. what do you make of what you heard just
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a you talked about how the us is diminishing influence and that russia china likely to ignore this this threat of u.s. sanctions if they continue to buy iranian oil what about what other nations might buy see it ignore that a japan for instance that which is wanted its the economy would be severely hit if it couldn't continue to import iranian oil what about the european nations are they good a ride out this threat from donald trump. i think agent to be honest it is true that the nations are not very receptive of trump sanctions over we should also remember that there is a very great danger here in the way that we are discussing that we paint iran as a victim of the machinations of the us remember the reason why many countries in the gulf are lobbying the us to be harsh on iran it is because iran's foreign policy has irked and disturbed many nations in the region iran has numerous militias in iraq it is heavily involved in syria in propping up the assad regime
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and it has hezbollah in lebanon which has a gun pointed towards the lebanese government and we have to remember that iran is not a victim in this region and that the chapter that we see today with regards to the oil is only one chapter of of a big long book of relationship between iran the gulf and the us and let's also not forget iranian involvement in yemen iran seems today like it's a victim and it's true perhaps in this it may well have been wrong but let us not to give the impression that this has emerged from nothing it is more than just an issue of oil price it is also about curbing iranian activity in iraq for example in iraq it is dominated by iranian influence the us are now second to iran in iraq you can see now in the way government goshi asians are taking place in iraq a general carson city many of the kids force in iran is the one conducting negotiations between the various shiite parties to ensure a pro iran majority government this is why there are all these attempts in order to
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curb iran's capabilities in the region itself so whilst i agree today that perhaps iran is being hard done with regards to its oil exports while i agree that trump is being very harsh on iran and while i agree that trump is pursuing these policies for market value and reasons let us not be hoodwinked by what iran is doing in the region this does not suggest that saudi and u.a.e. are good parties or that they are victims or the like the reality is in this very day. political game being played in the region iran is a major player nobody can deny that even during sanctions it was still able to pursue an aggressive foreign policy and it is still pursuing an aggressive foreign policy despite its economic situation despite its political situation so we should be very much aware nations want to deal with iran that's very much true but they want to deal with iran because they know also that iran remains a very strong country with significant influence in the region i would disagree we're running out of time here what do you make of what you've just heard there
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iran is irked and disturbed its neighbors it's not a victim here to some extent it's brought the situation upon itself. well i would actually say that the major source of instability in the region has not been iran rather it's been the united states in israel let's remember that a lot of the instability in the middle east was created out of the illegal war of two thousand and three when the united states decided to invade iraq yes iran does have influence in iraq but we have to remember that iraq is iran's neighbor in over sixty percent shia i mean we never talk about the united states having influence in canada because we see it as somewhat somehow natural so why would you want influence in iraq in terms of international relations be this the norm of the rather we should be talking about the united states bullying the countries in the region and also we have to remember that iran does not have bad relationship with everyone rather only with saudi arabia israel and perhaps the u.a.e.
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or so i mean i know i know that you want to come in the can you give me a ten second answer and then i was just saying the comparison with america in iraq and canada is wrong because america has no militias in canada iran's interference is not that of a neighborly it's that of almost a colonizer i'm certain that that we could go we could go on just a bit of afraid we're right out of time we're going to have to stop there many thanks deed done to us on a. sunday how do you thank you as always for watching the program so you can see it again any time by go to the web site website at al-jazeera dot com for further discussion please join us at our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash a.j. inside story and don't forget you can join the conversation on twitter handle at a.j. inside story from adrian for the going to the whole team here see you again but.
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where were you when this idea popped into it when they're on line it's undoubtedly chief call of poverty inequality in our society today or if you join the sunset criminal justice system is dysfunctional right now this is a dialogue what does it feel like bring you to go back for the first time everyone has a voice and allow refugees to be the speakers for change join the colobus conversation announces iraq i really feel liberated as a journalist while. getting to the truth as it always does with this job.
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this is al-jazeera. hello i'm barbara sarah this is the news hour live from london thank you for joining us coming up in the next sixty minutes. a sad end rush hour brown up their offensive to capture a serious southwest the u.n. says three quarters of a million lives are at risk plus. it is now time that the russian state comes forward and explains exactly.


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