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tv   Inside Story 2018 Ep 208  Al Jazeera  July 27, 2018 8:32pm-9:01pm +03

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and of his lambs holiest sites was prevented for three hours following that violence said the u.a.e. coalition aircraft have launched air strikes on the any city of her data or data hostess to egypt important seaport which is the main entry point for most of the country's food eight rescuers in lives searching for more than one hundred people still missing after monday's dam collapse twenty seven people and confirmed dead as water levels recede people are returning to their homes and questioning why they weren't moved to safety earlier there are conflicting reports on when the cracks in the dam were first spotted those are your current headlines you're up to date i'll be back with a full news hour in just over twenty five minutes time right after our daily look behind the headlines on inside story hope to have a company that. how
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big a threat to the syrian regime the group says if carried out coordinated attacks killing dozens in southern syria as the army backed by russia and iran continues to crush the rebellion by the opposition to be white type two this is inside story. hello and welcome to the program eisel fights as have carried out their deadliest attacks for months in southwest syria suicide bombers targeted a vegetable market a hospital and a public square in the government held city of the way to own weapons day all the
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gunmen raided nearby towns and villages dozens were killed including pro-government fights as some activists and doctors say the number of fatalities is at least two hundred forty also wait which is home to the druze community has mainly managed to avoid attacks during the conflict which is now into its seventh year. well control of syria is largely divided between four main players in the northeast of the country kurdish groups control one third of all territory and they aim to establish their own autonomous government so the west turkish backed rebel forces control much of italy province and western aleppo home to around three million internally displaced syrians the asset regime backed by iran and russia have regained control of the majority of syria's provinces eisel stronghold in southern syria is under russian and syrian bombardment after losing territory seized in both syria and neighboring iraq eisel continues to control scattered patches of land regime forces
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are battling to regain control over the border with the israeli occupied golan heights that's close to where i saw launched suicide attacks on the city of the weight of let's bring in our guests today here on inside story joining us from vermont on skype is joshua landis he is the director of the center for middle east studies at the university of oklahoma in london we have hate haid a syria consulting research fellow at chatham house and here in doha we're joined by marwan he's a syrian academic and writer welcome to you all meaghan in doha coming to you first what we're talking about in suede was a suicide mission we haven't seen an eyesore suicide mission for many months how significant is that. i think it is important in my being in but it doesn't that it presents an existential threat to the syrian regime i think. as it loses more territories in syria whether in the southwest part of the conflict or even in
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the and the east of the contrary it will be actually resorting to the sort of tactics that was actually using in iraq especially. during the u.s. occupation of that contrie so most probably we're going to see more of these attacks in fact about as i said before that is not going to be representing and the existential threat for the syrian regime because. eisen is being actually confronted by most of the powers who are interested in the syrian conflict that would include the united states russia iran the sunni our countries turkey so i said actually is almost fighting almost against everybody in this conflict so there is no chance in my being and for i said towards this sort of existential threat for the syrian regime what we are going to see as i said is more of these attacks and less we have the sort of political solution to the syrian crisis understood hate
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hate in london there was a particularly vicious element to what i saw was doing with this suicide attack because after the bombs went off they were going round door to door killing people in their own homes but leaving one survivor what's the message that i still is trying to get out now well it's it's not surprising to see or hear about this tactic because from the beginning isis has been trying to basically brought cuz to fire its brutality and is to mainly scare its enemies but also to realize its allies and supporters around and what we saw in the way that is just another tactic. basically aimed to make their at the to the headlines and living survivors to tell the stories about what happened will make sure that syria's and the rest of the war will continue to fear
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isis for years to come and i think that is the main message and joshua what does this tell us about the preparedness of the syrian forces. well this is a classic isis attack isis today is a is a cornered tiger it's lashing out as a diversionary tactic to show that it's still lethal even as it's being destroyed in southern syria so it it attack the jebel druze and the jurors minority of course is seen as an evil minority by isis their ninth issue of their davetta magazine was about the druze and how they all their shakes their religious leader should be killed their women could be sold into slavery like the use e.t.s. so the druze have long been a target for isis it's a way to sow. in a sense distrust between the syrian regime and a bruise because the druze were very upset they said it how come this could happen
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how do you let them get here why did they did massacre us so there's a lot of internal squabbling the syrian opposition has blamed this on aside and said that isis an aside are one that they're working together in a conspiracy to punish the druze are not wholeheartedly being a loyalist this is. seems to me rather conspiracy theory but but it has so in dissension and it's diverted the gaze from the real defeat that isis is undergoing today it's nothing like it was two years ago when it had a big caliphate the size of great britain and today it's its last little enclaves are being wiped out but it's still a lethal force and it can carry out these very dangerous attacks with a small number of men paid what does this attack by ice so the perpetrating of this attack by so tell us about those people who are perhaps rushing to judgment say
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bashar al assad is actually very close to a complete victory well it's was two main issues the first one is that there is jeanne as. still unable to secure the areas that it has been with the support of its allies able to capture so far and the other thing is that their region has been depending mainly on short term. strategy or tactics that leads to basically brutal results at a later stage meaning. what just two hours referring to here why not only opposition groups but people from the way that themselves then assert for because most of the fighters who carried out that and so way the people said that they came from the countryside of damascus and from basically maly from the refugee camp here move in damascus where the regime brokered
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a deal with some isis fighters and basically allowed them to be looking to basically area that is close to the way that and the desert of eastern syria and this is why i think that the problem here is that assad is moving basically one problem or solving one problem now creating ten others later on and the other issue i think that people are basically blaming us at for and the russians as well is that because recently there has been some russian led efforts to demobilize and this local militias and do it and so whether. after that there were no measures taken by the regime or the russians to protect those areas and then after that the isis fighters took advantage of that security vacuum and attack and this is why also another reason the for what for for why people are blaming assad and the russians for a moment coming back to you here in doha i mean what are the chances here that
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bashar al assad starts going after the druze because the government forces don't control the specific area that is obvious on the one hand and. on the other hand the troops the young male druze do not sign up they refuse to sign up to this conscription system but he's got going for the syrian army. and yes indeed i think that there was in fact in a very awkward position because on the one hand as you said they are not playing they are in fact trying not to be part of this war which is waged by assad against i mean in the sunni majority of syrians so they don't want to be part of that on one hand on the other hand they are seen by as not really muslims so they are on one hand attacked by ice and on the other hand they are not very well protected by the assad regime and in fact what the recent attack by isis demonstrates is that as as as your other two guests actually have been suggesting it shows that the
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syrian regime is still in fact very vulnerable very weak and cannot provide the sort of protection that those people who are under its control actually are expecting him to to to to provide and this also demonstrated that military solution to this crisis will not actually end it we still need to see a political solution because analysts will bring almost everybody on board. in order to end this conflict we are going to see as we said earlier more attacks by isis and more of the colonization not only by ice who are going to see more of the colonization of among them moderates sunny's who who have seen actually their houses destroyed they are they are their brothers killed by the cities and after all that is sort of wives and after all the regime actually has. as it has changed some of the most of their of the of the of the contras so i think it's the really
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important here to see the sort of political solution to this conflict. despite the progress with the progress on the ground that has been made by the regime and its. on this a lie so it's not the end yet we are not there yet i think the end will not be. when it will not be see it unless we see the sort of constitution that i was talking about and you joshua landis in vermont if what we're talking about here with the druze community is like a microcosm of the broader conflict how does that mesh with where we are the point that ma was making the how does that mesh with where we are in the political arena there are kurds in damascus having discussions with the asset regime as we speak on the one hand and on the other hand the reality is what if eisel is not defeated what if iceland's just regrouping and kind of returning to it's the gold standard of what it does is just regrouping well isis is regrouping. and it's attacked
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recently in libya and yemen and other places but it isis can only grow where there is a power vacuum and quite clearly isis book the united states which was backing the syrian rebels to destroy the syrian government in a syrian army under assad but america turned away from that support because it appeared that isis or al qaida would be the beneficiaries of this so ultimately they looked. the united states look to iranian backed militias in iraq and russia and assad in syria to provide that security and they've gone to the kurds in the north but ultimately this is the dilemma i think that both everybody has underlined here is that we're going back to the status quo assad is clearly winning he has asserting himself he is destroying these various rebel groups as he's been
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doing down in debt on the question is whether he can provide stable rule in syria and both your other commentators have said no way he can't do that unless he brings in more opposition but that's very unlikely to happen assad is not going to. find a political solution to this war he is finding what he believes a political solution but one that will not satisfy most the syrian opposition he is talking with the kurds and marco rubio american senator just accuse the kurds and north syria the white b.g. of being a rebellious organization and and in a sense of treason for talking with us side but the united states is not willing to really back them up and that's the that's the problem what shortens do the groups these other groups have other than to fall in line with assad we've seen the jordanians we've seen the lebanese we've seen even the israelis began to talk about
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assad staying and and ultimately allowing the syrian army into southern syria into the darel reason to destroy the rebels and nobody lifted a finger to help them so the writing is on the wall assad is winning and out the question is how much debility can he bring back to syria he just put a couple of building blocks together here for us if we are talking about the beginning of the end of this conflict and if it does mean indeed a victory for bashar al assad we've got the kurds in damascus we've got the rescuers being rescued in the past few days the white helmets being escorted to a different location and we've got external actors kind of laying down a line in the sand saying yes we might accept an asset victory but we will not accept the consequences of that millions of people displaced unless those millions of people go back into syria how does that work well it's difficult to see
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and basically the situation when. make everyone happy in a way because on one hand it's clear that again that the regime is winning militarily. doesn't automatically mean that basically the regime will be able to ensure again the stability of syria on one hand stop the ongoing attacks inside syria on the other and more importantly for the regional and international actors be able to allow for at least on courage refugees to go back when we go to the first basically issue which is when the syrian regime be able to stop similar attacks in the future. we have isis who has been changing its tactics in order to ensure long term or long term survival they have changed their economic model they have changed basically their structure they're depending
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mainly on sleeper cells and people who are discreetly trying to destabilize different areas you have other rebel groups who will continue to carry out a similar. like attack were all of there were like attacks and different areas and then you have a political solution that will again will not most likely happen and this we see some serious pressure from russia on the scene because there is e-mail wants to basically recapture the rest of syria militarily but there are so far not willing or unable to pressure the region to accept some kind of compromise with the rest of the groups where it counts to basically when where where does that leave us it leaves us in a place where basically the regime will continue to function to function and different areas or in the measure if syria but groups will continue to carry out
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attacks area will be will be destabilized and many refugees will not be able to go back so it will be a felt or simethicone state that we would be most likely looking at the moment if there's another else we could but not of course the diplomacy the clicks together with the politics and as much as for example we know for a fact french diplomats are being ping ponging between the routes and damascus for the last year the french under russian auspices of getting aid into the western half of syria and yet the french are being criticized for saying well for doing that because people are similar you know if you working with the russians you back in the russians if you back in the russian ship backing bashar al assad so there seems to be a circle there that has got to be squared but how do you square it will be to i mean this is the point that i was. actually to me even if assad is winning on the ground in syria i think there are so many stakeholders in this conflict most of them with bad hops now accept that assad is winning including. the united states.
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the states and others but i think there is a big that there is a big elephant in the room that we need all to see it before we can talk about an end also i mean to this conflict about from seeing a political solution between the regime and the opposition which is iran in this case i think everybody is talking now about. how to get iran out of syria if we accept assad the manning and power and for that for the next war that for the next couple couple of couple of years i mean this is something that is really on board and so now i mean i believe this is why in syria it's c.d.n. borton to get almost everybody on board that that means that the russians the americans of course i mean the russians are having the upper hand in the syrian and the syrian conflict there and the driving seat that americans might be in the back seat for the time being but we need the the people who are sitting in the backseat and the people who are sitting in the driving seat to come to agree actually on how to look to to do that i've done that the vehicle and this case i'm
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a political solution and in syria so i think we need to bring almost everybody right now in order to have a bit to go solution to this crisis in syria as far as the french or all is concerned i think i think this is somehow and debilitation of the helsinki summit between president bush and president obama the focus right now is maybe on the city and a few g.'s on trying to focus maybe on the humanitarian aspect of the seating crisis because political solution and i know it doesn't seem very likely as i said because we need to have almost everybody. on board this is why we're the french actually we have seen the french stepping in and trying to do something with the russians because they know for now that this is better hops the issues that need to be i mean to be dealt with for the time for the time being ok. and then we see an agreement between the americans and the russians on how to deal with iran ok that is about it is would be i actually have a say and let's just pick up on that point of iran that you're raising in through
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that joshua joshua but there has been slight progress on that because the israelis surely have got exactly what they wanted because they've got russian guarantees from the iranians saying yes we will move back from where we were historically over the past several months because the israelis were beginning to get really uncomfortable with that i don't think there's a chance in hell of getting the iranians out of syria president assad has made it very clear that he. is invited the iranians and any he expects them to stay now did israel get what it wants i don't think it did israel as is busy drawing red lines by bombing everything in syria that it can find of iran's but the israeli demands were made to lab rob in a meeting just a few days ago and they want the border with lebanon close there's no rearming of hizbollah they want iran out no missile emplacements their list is very long
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very extensive and they're not going to get it so they're going to continue to bomb and as we've seen them do up near aleppo anyplace they can sense that they're iranian soldiers helping out advising or helping to build missiles they will blow up and that's you know they're they're taking care of their security and drawing red lines but i don't suspect that iran is going to lead and russia will not make iran leave russia needs iran in the sense that they have one together and they. are both interested in propping up the assad regime the moment iran leaves syria this country will be that country will be very vulnerable and we've seen that in iraq too we've seen that with hizbollah iran as a major investment and it has one it believes it has ok let's just quote one not point it's interrupted joshua because we are where across into was the end of the program hate the russians are saying we will give all those displaced people safe passage safe passage to where and to what vladimir putin is not going to put
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a million people into chechnya into the caucuses if he starts moving them around mr erdogan in ankara will react very badly turkey has got literally a footprint on syrian soil it is semi permanent presumably he wants to stay where do those people go and what kind of life do they have once they get there. well so far according to the russians that they want them to go back to their own basically areas but here we have two issues the first one is that the syrian regime has been still medically trying to prevent many people to go back to their areas malay around who are their masters basically the border with lebanon for example you have that which has been captured for more than two years it's completely empty and many other towns are completely empty so the russians cannot basically pressure the regime to allow those people to go back to their areas so as many of them can i
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will go back to their areas then there will be displaced elsewhere and that is something that people are not willing to basically risk their lives for and the other thing is that basically many of those people they still have many concerns that are not basically address one of the issue is that all those who are considered basically opponent of gene there is no protection guarantees those who are basically wanted for that to do their militaries or service and who are scared of being listed there is no guarantee that they will not be listed and this is why unless those different issues are addressed you will find it difficult to see people voluntarily go that tentative will be to force those people to go back from that region and then that will have many other consequences that will lead to destabilizing the region ok then because they will not be now and it will last point typical graham john you know just is this the beginning of the end game of
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the war in syria or if there's another swayed or is that a perfect demonstration of the fact that this war is far from over and it will continue apace for many months to come we said we said we said during the program that the assad regime might be winning militarily on the ground but i think there will be no stability in syria and yes we have a chance to. to this crisis including actually the discussion about iran i think they need russia's need for iran with decrees when this conflict militarily and there would be no need for iran to have about it because there would be no what that that at that point if we have the opposition and that agreeing on a political solution what that would be. and this should be should be leaving syria without iran leaving syria i cannot see i can do this that this conflict as it always will have to leave it there many thanks for your contribution thank you so i guess my joshua landis on hate hate and thank you too for your company you can see
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the show again any time by checking out the web site al-jazeera dot com all for the discussion check our facebook page facebook dot com forward slash page inside story you can also tweet us at a.j. inside story or tweet me i'll take you back at the one for me on the entire team here and thanks for your company will do it all again at the same time for more of .
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an insider's perspective just six months ago we were at the brink of a war of the real donald trump i think he makes comments that he probably shouldn't make from the former campaign national security director tom was in a class all by himself for the thirty years i've known donald he creates his own. reality maybe he's so good to hate with j.t. coolidge there has been no evidence that shows collusion if that's not collusion if that's not working with russians what is owned fell just zero. of struggles children quarrels of the not very well done with and with time this is the judgment that he she blew in with. full of pleasure me boy are. you going to go a bomb field or an intimate look at life in cuba today. the thought of course i'm going to boss around me when i'm out of a lot of all people i'm hanging in my cube on al-jazeera.
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this is zero. and all of this is that i'm going to do all then this is news hour live from london coming up in the next sixty minutes pakistani political groups rejects election results which the iraq iran comments prime minister and promised nationwide protests two palestinians including a fourteen year old are killed in the latest protests along the gaza israel border and it is a key on disaster for iceland images that have.


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