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tv   Inside Story 2018 Ep 243  Al Jazeera  September 1, 2018 2:32pm-3:01pm +03

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he boarded a flight on friday night after the government allowed him to leave the country and says he was beaten while and detention he has been charged with treason there's been a law and fighting between armed groups and libya after several days of battles left almost forty people dead and more than one hundred injured most of the casualties are civilians gun battles and shelling a cause serious damage to residential and commercial areas around the tague airport near tripoli brazil's former president ways and also a little to silva has been officially blocked from running into october's election the majority of judges on the like toral court confirm that ban he is serving a twelve year prison sentence for corruption but party right destroyed him anyway it says that they will keep up the fight to ensure he can stand those are the headlines the news continues keep it here on al-jazeera more to com inside story is next.
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the battle for the syrian government and its main russia appear to be preparing for an all out offensive for the rebels it would likely be the last stand after more than seventy years of fighting beyond the military and human cost what will an assault on it live tell us about syria's future this is inside story. hello and welcome to the program. syria's civil war may soon and but not without one final humanitarian crisis as the government of bashar al assad has reclaimed
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one city and region after another its opponents have been driven into smaller areas many are now considered traitors in the northern province of idlib recent statements from the government and the russia. push to retake this last major rebel held area may begin soon we began with this report from stephanie decker who's just across the border from it live in the turkish city of antakya. all eyes now on the rebel held province of the syrian government has always said it was going to take it back and it seems an offensive is now imminent what form will this offensive take that remains the question will it be limited will it be an all out war while there's intensive negotiations going on behind the scenes between turkey between the russians and also rebel groups on the ground particular group called hired to handle shadow this group formerly associated with al qaida known as the mr front
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that is the main issue this is what russia and syria say are terrorists and why they're going to be undertaking this offensive while the u.n. special envoy to syria staffan de mistura put their number at around ten thousand fighters but of course more importantly is the humanitarian situation almost three million people are inside it province hauffe of those are people internally displaced from other conflict zones inside syria also a lot of people who left areas under these so-called reconciliation deals rebels and their families who didn't want to stay in government controlled areas came to they now have nowhere to go so there is talk of potential humanitarian corridors where will they go because there's no more opposition held territory people are terrified of what will happen to them if they cross into regime areas and of course the borders here in turkey remain firmly shut turkey's nightmare situation is of tens of thousands of people begging to be left benteke begging to be left inside
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turkey already hundreds of thousands of tents of internally displaced lie in the border so this is why intensive negotiations going on turkey trying to avoid an all scale offensive but we're going to have to wait and see how exactly this is going to play out and what. was a stake in problems the last may's a rebel russia has called it a hold of terrorists your own voice upon the mr i believe thousand al qaeda linked fighters it's home to nearly three million people almost. for them displaced from territory by the syrian government including. and the province nato has reported russian naval buildup in the mediterranean sea where russia is holding exercises from saturday. let's introduce our panel of experts in our man. a military analyst and retired air force general in moscow. nick of
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a middle east expert of the russian international affairs council and in london they're consulting a research fellow on syria chatham house welcome to you or these seem to be quite significant moment in syria. do you think that a final push to recover. is just a matter of days or weeks diplomacy is working right now with the negotiation also with the militant but the question is whether their friends will start or to see the summit in that iran which is going to be next week and that iran. this is the gift and this might lead to. i could say diplomacy might be too late but i think there is some strategic points which is really want to get back to.
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just a short south. and the merely the highways in five and four these are very strategic for him so it's highly likely we might see a very limited attack getting this area back and you might give some concession with the end the standing with. meeting i think to get this sent over. the border with this either of course. but it's highly likely we might see some attacks or some of launching some of. which i mention when you see the naval the russian naval build up in the mediterranean coupled with statements from the russian missile for another saying russia is determined to wipe . is this is a genuine. indication of russia's going to go to war in libya is just
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trying to put more pressure on here to. well the station is not that simple in the first place of course russia is committed to its consistent policy of the mitten terrorists and in the first place but also we need to remember that in recent months russia declared a new priority in syria which is the return of the refugees document there in aid and reconstruction so if we hypothesize and assume that russia and damascus are preparing a large scale offensive on it lip that will definitely produce another huge refugee flow which goes contrary to moscow's interest and also to talk these interests so this is why as my colleague or already mentioned i think the now the negotiations between russia took in damascus are going trying to find a delicate. deal agreement which will define how
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large a military invasion against jihadists are is going to be in the area and how to minimize all possible consequences and risks connected with that. i mean it's the talk of the town now. and its future what's the general sentiment among the city is now as everyone seems to be preparing for this final minute to push. well if we took nearly a war those who are staying in in the area that will soon be attack. people there are scared because they don't know what will happen to them. the first concern is that there is no safe place for them to good tool because turkey closed the border and will most likely not allow anyone to cross to turkey because second
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the regime under russia has been systematically targeting civilian facilities so even though they are not on the front line their areas may still be targeted the other thing is basically their humanitarian aid will most likely be cut and terminated because of the security situation saw most of them who depend on that to survive will most likely have to find either another way or to survive without that which will be extremely difficult as for the rest of syria's who either stay in region controlled areas or they are refugees outside they don't know what the capture of it will mean for the future of syria will basically. embolden to say that there will be nor more political talks in syria or will at least be a first step into reaching some sort of agreement with turkey and with the syrian opposition to at least provide some sort of deal that would allow
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a recently but will allow others to survive mr i want to what i mean if so the diplomacy could bear some fruit and not see any military confrontation however let's talk about all the possible scenarios if diplomacy collapses what would be the next step are we going to see something similar to past scenarios by the russians and the syrians whether to seize areas into starvation and submission. it's highly likely we're going to see that like the the thing is that he doesn't have two options either they fight to death or set ender to do dream and there is no place to go all of this and i mean the lip is quite different from other areas normally they put them in the bus and the deport them to but here there's no place to go and people cross the border you're just saying and she want to get the center
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of all the border because of the that's it's a strategic depth concerning the g. and the issue so. i think it. can. go ahead for the fighting but i don't think. realizing that they don't have an answer for the air supremacy of the russian air power which is completely they're going to devastate up wife will wipe them off and that's this should be considered very highly the other option is it is willing to push the free syrian army jet there what the new year two to fight the nostra i don't think this is. going to happen and turkey would not. such situation so this is this jewish and now but i think a likely would see some strike and possibly a limited fight and then we'll see some settlement consenting to dissolve it on
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dismantling. getting into business with the. annex a if this comes down to a final military push would it be different than what we've seen in places like in . well. it's true that during the last. years we saw a quite familiar pattern of syrian government in russia's dealing with this question zones first it was east aleppo then is older and lastly it was that but it's worth noticing that over this time russia's involvement was limited to limited. airstrikes in support of syrian government forces attacks so now it is the last remaining discoloration zone which is not under us its control russia definitely wants it to be under this
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control the entire story is different with this because turkey is involved then kurdish issue is also on the agenda here in this and this issue and this is why it's more complicated on the one the one hand moscow needs to continue its consistent approach to demonstrate that it backs it l.-i and wants it to take the territory and then turkey is a partner important punk partner for russia and it also needs to take into account its own interests. hides the most powerful man in. the lead at the head in a sham said basically of the. of the nostra front said basically that his group is determined to fight to the death in. is this something that could give us an indication about what might happen next in italy. well definitely
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because first of all we have to take into consideration the. basically manpower that. but also the manpower that other groups have in italy where we are talking of are the more even radical groups they hate the who like. the dean and others or we're talking about groups that are radical more moderate like a lot and the other groups so in total if you talk about the numbers there we are we have more than forty to fifty thousand fighters and that number which we don't see in other places so for sure we'll most likely see basically more resistance on the ground and more destruction on all sides that's one issue the other issue is that as the other two guests said hey if the who is sharon many other rebel groups don't have any or any other option but to fight and i disagree
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a bit with what the two guests said so far about the horse fight is about hate the haitian because it's not completely true that russia and the regime want to eliminate hate to hate but also they want to eliminate other rebel groups who are controlling those areas because the ultimate goal for the regime is to restore its author if you are italy and that can only be done if all groups are eliminated i would would like to talk a little bit about the regional implications we have three bigger players with different agendas russia iran and turkey is it possible to see the three countries with the meat into how to set aside their differences and agree on the future with syria with. still in power the price with ultimately be defeating the rebels in italy. yes but let me highlight a. very important point saying that the rebels are the militants.
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that if. they're like a contractors' now to a foreign nation foreign players so they don't have the decision of did this to me or decide what's going to happen in the future of syria they don't have any military or political project let me say. or a vision for the in game or in syria now. but you know russia would like to keep the partnership with turkey she's a very careful about and she use you want to get turkey you know some space between nato and turkey or this sense of. this supporting to you know in diplomatic manner an economical matter and you have this four hundred and this is the the military aid which like to support. but as iran iran would like also to get this area back because this base their bases their cetera so i think there they
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have some understanding and the future of what's going to happen but that's all depending concerning the reconstruction of cd and you have to let deshaun of c.d.'s and retaining of refugee and how come this supports of such a brutal regime to kill this people back again this is the problem and i don't think the european or other nation would support said or russia and russia doesn't have that its sources to build syria again and she's in deep trouble now with that . sort of take. you know drain resources and c.d.'s well this is very important logical point and you don't have any you end piece a bland peace political process for syria it's all dead now ok as i said is winning the game. and he would negotiate in good what with whom this is where you get the big question now ok and how was will be the endgame or the structure or syria
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war will end this probably interesting it is not committed for peace and it will keep on killing and not people syrian people will come back and there is and that is due if the turks decide to. give the go ahead for the military push by the russians and the syrian government in what would be the price would pay with their for example allow the turkish government to have some sort of political influence in the northern part of syria i think it's definitely on the agenda and under discussion now because and as i see it i think that moscow or on korea and damascus the three of them want limited joint military offensives target which targets. particularly the radical groups including.
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in the set up so this is why. i mean they're in quite intensive negotiation mode as we witnessed a week ago. turkish foreign minister together with defense minister and head of turkish intelligence were in moscow and they discussed it lip exactly it lip and in seven days we have summit for the trust summit in in teheran where it live will also top the agenda as well as the kurdish issue the reconstruction and the return of the refugees hide seven years ago the way the syrians have to the streets there were high hopes that their movement would lead to a new vibrant democratic syria seven years later with these talks about a final push to take back. do you believe is a feeling that. many syrians feel this is the beginning of the end for the rebels
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well for the rebels it is most likely the beginning of and many people know that because even though they the rebels in play might be able to resist but they can only do that for so long so at the end they know that they would be defeated militarily so the question right now is what will happen after that and will russia or the international community be able to pressure the regime in order to reach some sort of political leader that is accepted by all groups i think thought it's important to highlight here that we orly we're only talking about italy and ripples control areas but we have to also talk about controlled areas which consist of more than twenty five percent of syria and taken over it will not solve the issue because during the king has been basically the negotiation of those groups but the negotiating negotiations are not going anywhere so there will be another issue to
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discuss but in general people feel that military. confrontation with the regime is not. available is not possible anymore and that is why the orderly demand left is the political political one way out. no are you the supreme ety of the russians will make a difference but the russians are known torrijos for the massive scale operations that leave behind thousands of civilian casualties massive destruction is this something that could create yet another huge humanitarian issue in syria it is a catastrophe if this had been a massive scale operation that's madness i mean there are three to four million people with the goal. and this will also european and the. date. this is a big thing to do and i don't think this is
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a highly likely scenario that what we're going to see i think it's going to be a very limited attack getting this point which i mentioned back but. that's what we're going to see a massive scale operation that's crazy the craziness that's madness to do this you would senator russell for the seed and people i mean they would it would it would go alex say the the russians seem to be impressed by their. by their by their military capabilities in two thousand and fifteen this stepped in and they change the ground the tilt of the ground in favor of bashar al assad but even if said takes back eighty percent of the syrian population still wants assad out of power we're back to square one well. this statistic were first the polls where it comes from so. i don't know but we
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need to see of course the u.n. process under the u.n. auspices and the elections and then transition period which actually russia advocates for and supports but what moscow view was as a prerequisite for that is the pacific nation of the conflicts which means the end of of the fight so to create conditions where the political process could be launched when the u.n. can work on the ground to monitor the election the organize election process so this is what moscow eventually pushes for you hide what is next for you the millions of people who live in no man's land in syria or pushed out of the country. claims back most of the territory in syria. would you still continue the fight first or workforce or for those who live in
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they will for sure not feel saved because many of them are wanted for the regime even if the regime has been able to take over at. risk there's an end there is begins for many are for that because there will be either arrested or killed at a later stage as for those who live outside of syria many people said publicly they we will not be able to go back as refugees for many reasons first because we are scared of what might their resume do and second because there is no options for us to go back to it meaning that there is no jobs their houses most of them are destroyed and many of the areas where they come from are completely empty n.b.c. is right now still by their by the regime like dariya close to damascus so the conditions for their return. don't exist and this is why many people feel that this will be just another basically ph that they have to turn their
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suffer will continue for their suffering will continue for a long time. alexei klebnikov of our thank you very much indeed for your contribution to the program and thank you to force you can see the program again and it's by visiting our website dot com for further discussion goes our facebook page that space well dot com forward slash a.j. inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter our handle is a j inside story for me hashem one of the whole team here by phone now.
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for thousands of years farmers and shepherds lived off this land but such a traditional way of life is on the increase in fact. al-jazeera wound travels to the jordan valley where illegal settlements are expanding and the israeli military cordons off more of the now. what will become of the palestinian families and does the palestinian authority have any power to have shepherds of the jordan valley on al-jazeera. volcano kill way erupted explosively last thing boiling clouds of steam and ash and rock high into the atmosphere scientists say it's not unusual for eruptions to stop and start up again later as for kill away a it has been spilling love of continually for more than thirty years native
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hawaiian spiritual beliefs say eruptions reflect the moods of the goddess balej. us as native hawaiians to the family is always nice to us whether she takes our home or not we accept this type of event. struggles. of souls. on the stand in times of minnesota's full of pleasure in our lives don't get out of there also as the. realities of the system an intimate look at life in cuba today be clear laugh at me funny yeah meet a long time me don't make it was a little like the first one of my cuba on trial just zero. unless we have new generations growing up to understand how the nation of shit but the natural. soon there will be nothing left and will suffer primatologist and
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conservationist dr jane goodall told to al-jazeera. with the top stories on al-jazeera the u.s. has cut all funding to the un agency supporting five million palestinian refugees around thirty percent of us funding has come from the us trumpet ministrations says the agency is irredeemably floored palestinian president mahmoud abbas calls the cut a flagrant assault on palestinians how a force it is in ramallah well this is the jealous own refugee camp just outside ramallah in the occupied west bank it's in places like this where the impact of this u.s. decision will be felt most keenly already.


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