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tv   [untitled]    August 7, 2021 2:30pm-3:01pm AST

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organizing scene told me any new facilities are designed to have a lasting impact. we have in sun, southern year territory, which is very young, but very poor. so, and we will build quite a lot of facilities that will offer you put unity for people to do sports after the games. we build also houses for this territory because there is a big need in terms of houses. so the legacy will be the biggest useful for the population paris game to hoping to prove it is possible to light the olympic flame without burning a hole in the public's pockets. and richardson al jazeera, tokyo, ah, us, the, our here on, out to the, were these are the headlines purchased as in thailand have been facing off with police in the capital bank, calling back? i still are 16 in the evening. dow demanding the resignation of the prime minister and calling for urgent reforms. the monarchy,
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at least one person has been arrested so far. the headlines and the taliban says it's captured a 2nd city in an intensifying campaign against the african government. the groups of it took control of sugar gun, the capital of the northern province of judge john, shot a bell with more from campbell. we just spoke to her a local contact. insure the guy who said that and this person is affiliated with the government saying that the city has fallen to the taliban. although it does appear to be quite fluid and subjective because it seems that the taliban don't have control of all major government buildings like the police headquarters, the army compound, the governors compound, the intelligence offices. but there are still security forces at the airport as a 6 day mess vaccination drive underway in bangladesh. the government has set a goal of inoculating 3200000 people above the age of 25. i'd also plans to start offering jobs to ringo refugees. by early next week, parts of libya, though,
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including the capital tripoli of now into another full lockdown in an attempt to curb the spread of coven 19 a 3rd time such measures have had to be imposed since the pandemic began. mass evacuations, north of athens as wildfires tear through the vast areas of pine forest and get closer to the great capital. thousands of people have now fled their homes. more than a $1005.00 fighters and 15 aircraft baffling defies across grief. with the reinforcements, arriving from other parts of the year, while in turkey, tens of thousands of fact as a forest have been destroyed and while finds there, they've been described as the worst. in decades, at least 36000 people have been displaced from their homes. in the southern province of nuclear, where their art highest resorts, it's my lot for today. thank the company can vanelle will take you through the next few hours of news on out to 0. that will be after in such story i
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lose the will the long run i found off in venezuela finally come to an end. the government and opposition are now with spectrum. the whole talk of the country real from a different the prices. but what will it take to reach a deal? this isn't side story. ah, ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm daddy and abigail van, as well as political nightmare, could soon be over. president nicholas madura and his main rivals on by doe have
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agreed to hold talks and mexico in august to try to resolve their differences. it wasn't long ago, venezuela was considered one of latin america's most economically stable countries . but the oil producing nation has seen 8 years of recession fuel by an ongoing political crisis since 2018 tough us sanctions on multiple attempts to overthrow the government. and that's without the added complications of covered 19. the stakes are high, but will then as well as leaders, leave their rivalry aside to rescue their country. all. introduce our guest and just a moment for inside story. but 1st, let's take a look at how as well i got to where it is right now. so in 2019 nicholas madura was sworn in for a 2nd term as president. but the opposition, which had boycotted the elections accused madura a vote rigging and refused to accept his when. then opposition leader one, why though declared himself into rem president, he was quickly accepted by the united states and least 50 other countries has been as well as legitimate presidents. madura responded by cutting ties with the u. s.
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who he accused of working with quite whoa, and then refused to allow humanitarian aid set by washington to help with an ongoing food crisis. with us under former president, donald trump reacted by imposing crippling sanctions on missouri government. and then as well as main lifeline oil exports. the political crisis led to a lack of investment, food shortages and the migration of up to 5000000 van as well, and thousands of whom were considered part of a skilled workforce. ah, let's, i'll bring in our guests for inside story. joining us via skype from the venezuela capital card, i guess, is phil johnson, who's a senior analyst at the international crisis group from new york. vanessa women is the founder and ceo of a symmetrical, and that's a political risk research and strategic communications firm and from metadata and venezuela pull dobson, who's an analyst at venezuela analysis dot com. thanks for joining us on inside
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story. phil over to you 1st, previous attempts at negotiations between the government and the opposition have failed. as you know, most recently in 2019. will these negotiations in mexico this month differ from the previous times? well i, i think it's fair to say, as you mentioned, the previous talks of failed. and in particular, when the opposition gave up on the talks, very similar tools that were taking place in 2019 in september of that year, they declared that this process facilitated by the norwegians was exalted. there was no further point. and in fact, they then turned to an attempted violent overthrow, the government. so it's not clear why they think if indeed they do think this time around is likely to succeed. in fact, the opposition side is but weaker than it was in 2019 the 2 side seem in some ways
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almost as far apart as they were than have been some minor adjustments to the position, but they're still very, very far apart. and so i think we have to be skeptical going into this restaurant. ok. important points raised we'll get into them in a moment. vanessa over to you in new york, just way in on, on whether you think the talks this time around have any chance of succeeding. hi. yeah, it's, well, i think it's very, it's, i agree that it's very challenging. i think that the opposition, which as you know, i was sort of, you know, officially a part of the investor to the u. k for why though, is, is, is very, is quite weak. they are trying to unite, they are trying to present a united fund, but you still have the factions. i think that the strong hand that they do have to play is that the regime has not been able to really secure a lot of the foreign assets in countries where why the continues to be recognized. including the u. s. united kingdom and many current and most of the countries in europe. and so what my daughter was trying to do is to try and get some sort of
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minimal conditions so that his no collections will, will attain some sort of international recognition so that they can become the imprimatur for later presidential election. so that you can, again get the can get access to that international money that has been held, pending free and fair elections. that's the issue. my daughter wants to money, i want enough legitimacy to secure the money which then goes unfortunately into the cup aquatic regime. i want to correct you on one point though, the mother did not break your relations with united states because of quite all. the tribute hasn't broken relations with united states many years ago. it's been years since since the united states actually had a properly functioning diplomatic relations. right. right. well yeah, i mean the point, the point is that the relation has really deteriorated between the united states and, and venezuela since quite a pulled offs. and over to you,
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i know that you told our our producer before the show that in your opinion, the political crisis has already ended in venezuela. what are you basing that on? well, when we, when we had talked in 2019, during that there was a very clear confrontation between 2 fairly strong political groups in the country, the government, the one hand and a wider lead position on the other hand. now this correlation have canes quite significantly over the last 2 years. there is now we can essentially say here in venezuela, on the ground, there is no confrontation in the political arena. doesn't make sense why they've come, have essentially been removed from the political map. they have lost most of that support base here. they're losing the support based in the international arena as well. so when we look at the develop william political market, the mainland, we can see a dominant government sector. we can see a, a growing but still very more moderate, right? we know, position sector and we can see why they come with keys,
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basically in half the collapse of a moment. so i think it's incorrect to describe the current political situation, venezuela as a confrontation or a crisis. now obviously the doesn't mean to pay the toilet is, is going through a period of growth. there is an economic crisis which is going on at the same time, but politically, the situation is very different. the 2019, when the last talk came about philip mentioned, and i think and this needs to be taken into account when we, when we look at the possibility of success. the, the bargaining kits of each side in the equation are very different to what they were in 2019 ok fill. the maturer reportedly has placed conditions on any new talks and what he's calling for the lifting of the blockade against the country of the us sanctions against country and the return of frozen or seized assets. is that a likely scenario going into these talks word? no,
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it's not going to happen. the united states government has made it very clear that in order for it to be significant relief of sanctions relieve, then there has to be equally significant progress in terms of what they would see it, restoring democracy to the country. that means that it looks very much as if we would need to go very long way down the road in these negotiations because i think it's going to be a very slow process. the idea that my daughter would wish sanctions be lifted 1st and his government and all its institutions be recognized as legitimate before anything else can happen. i think that's clearly unrealistic. it's also unrealistic for the opposition. i think to demand a model that you bring forward presidential elections that he at reinstate that he, that he restore constitutional institutional rules about why the instantaneous the
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because this bible says, i mean this is a very, very popular government government that knows very well when they were exposed to the rigors of a full scale democracy if you'd like. then it wouldn't that it would lose power. not necessarily would lose power of the, those presently engaged in this negotiation. but, but one who is an unpopular leader, he's been pretty popular really for the, for the duration of his term and a half in office so far. and so he's not going to sit down and talk and, and agree to something that's going to lead to him. losing power, especially because he's wanted internationally for you know, allocations of drug trafficking, human rights abuses, or 2 cases in the international criminal court against high ranking officials including moodle. and so it's highly risky for my daughter to agree to anything like that. i, paul, can you, would you like to just respond to the claims by phil that madura right now currently is highly unpopular in the country. i would agree with fill in this
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affirmation, but we need to contextualize if there is a white bread. different common with political parties have been a trailer which has been built over the last 5 years. and it really reflected in 10 out in the election. 10 of have been decreasing in the last 6 or 7 years in every election. and i think it'll be fair to say there been a wayland from a street are really disenchanted with the political leaders, but also the opposition political leaders. it's not just the phenomenon which is unique to my lower and all of the political lead to the moment i'm massively popular and, and there's really a growing power going, we could say in terms of political leadership in the country. ok, vanessa. guido are one of those conditions going into the talks are reportedly for free and fair electoral guarantees led by you observers. but if you just look at the opposition as a whole for a moment, besides agreeing on attending the talks,
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the upcoming talks, how united are they? and their demands well, as i mentioned before, the, they are trying to put together a united front. but as you know, that we call it the g for the main for parties which is building up and actually, i think got, and it's had to go the negotiations are led by that out of a life who's been involved with the 2019 negotiations. and was involved with 2 of those 4 political parties and a member from each of those parties. i agree with the assessment pull that actually there is a growing disenchantment with the various medical parties. so from the benefit of citizen perspective, it's not what i present that do they represent? this is a challenge for the opposition. and then you also have the internal dynamics of the different political parties who pursue slightly different agenda, which is one by those party in the office. this party, you know, are more of the hard 9 are say,
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we wanted absolute comprehensive agreement before anything happens before we agree to anything. where's the other 3 parties up? so i think i will want to cite a more step approach, which is also what norway is advocating. so dot present challenge. i do agree that i do agree that there, that's, that opposition has lost a lot of supports, mainly because it has taken so long to get out of power and, and, and because of this sort of in fighting. however, only one side in this equation is accused of crimes against humanity and only one side. and this equation hasn't documents for norco terrorism for an investigation, going back to at least 2008 so. so you know, you can't really compare the 2 sides. there is no moral equivalency. you do have social disenchantment with the political parties. but the moral equivalency between the 2 sides is simply not dollars are things that can play into the factors in this negotiation in mexico. what is happening next week is really just setting an m o u,
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for further discussions and establishing that framework for those further discussions that will continue on from september onwards, fell to what extent is the opposition coming to the negotiating table? really weakened and perhaps doesn't mean to insure its own survival. given what paul has been saying, as well as vanessa, i think you're right, but in a slightly different way than you would when you were suggesting there is a cause still this phenomenon. this is mirage. if you'd like, i'm not quite sure how to describe it of the interim government, which is recognize now by many fewer governments that it was at the beginning of 2019. but it's still recognized by washington is still recognized by the u. k. for example, what do i still recognize by them as the legitimate president? that's not going to continue indefinitely. and the u. s. is told the why those side
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that it's really unrealistic to imagine that the, the recognition of wind though and the interim government is going to go beyond the beginning of next year. so i think there's, there's a kind of a perverse incentive here on the part of the boy, the lopez faction, in particular that that's one of the factors that interfering willing to hear in these talks with any kind of genuine and negotiated outcome. i think that's why the love is decided to sit down again with the government, primarily in order to head all the alternative faction if you'd like, within the mainstream opposition, which is that led by and the company who does believe in a more gradualist approach. the approach to them as it was referring to who believes, for example, in taking part in the regional elections that are coming in in november which have been described by those sham vanessa. so was just talking about the acceptance of other countries of why do at the time, which brings me to this question,
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why are the talks being held in mexico, which was not exactly a neutral country when it came to vent as well as opposition? and the glider because of the mexican president was one. 2 in the region that did not recognize quite a back in 21900. correct. exactly. so. so mexico is a country where the why, though, why the has a representative there, but that has not been recognized by by no, i'm the manuel office or the president mexico. and he is very much in favor of of my little however, so it is not really neutral ground, i think. but there's also parallels for instance, the negotiations for the park. were that that, that sorry, that child was helped broker took place in cuba. so there is a tendency to sort of go to these rather left the spaces. i mean it's, but about mexico is certainly
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a better back for the opposition that leads to cuba. so do have it in this sort of slightly more than slightly left us terrain. that favors that favors the b minute. oh cap. definitely. it's meant to get them to the table. however, don't forget that americans do have a strong presence in mexico. it is just over the border. you do have tremendous commercial ties between mexico and the united states gas pipelines, automotive, industry, etc. so it's sort of the near abroad. it's sort of left just enough for, you know, to appeal to the my little camp and still sort of close enough to the united states . that there can be a little bit of law duration of that extreme left is in terms of hosting these talks and rather makes it convenient for washington who will be sending also some representatives to the talks. let me know about the united states and how that goes just recently been us. so the us treasury department, in fact,
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last month announced that would authorize venezuela to now import liquified petroleum gas from the united states and other sources. what is the reason behind this move by the biden administration? is there a shift, do you think in relation? well. 2 not really, i mean, i agree with those attachment that, you know, i knew those demands of recognize all of me. i'd give me all my money is really unrealistic because of the cryptography, the norco terrorism, you know, it's just not going to happen it. and because there would be no incentive to negotiate after that, once you have recognition. so, but i think that the buyer and administration is trying to also head off a humanitarian issue, and it is showing it signaling its willingness liquified petroleum guy. is really what ben as well as used to cook. so you already have, you know, millions of various ones that are burning wood to try and cook their meals at home . so it is to show that there is support for the venice wall and people are opening
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windows to help the bench with people. however, since oil for lpg is not a transaction that can happen, it's difficult to see how my buddha would do that. because he would have to spend cash, which is an international reserves which are at a low or know at a premium or have to do that. so it's slightly could smell. it shows it shows that biden is conscious of the difficulties of the everyday people. and, but that's walla, while also serves to put on the back. but you have this opportunity to help people, will you or will you not do it? and if you don't, you own that. so it's a fairly savvy diplomatic move on, on the bided administration's part, and hopefully, you know, hopefully it will help the best one. and people, though, frankly, i don't, i don't see that happening in practice teaching those positions. let's find out from appall dobson over and venezuela. how do you think the major government is viewing that move by the biden administration?
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well, we have to remember here the bite and the ministration. actually, heritage, the vast majority of the current function, the blockade against a trailer from it. mostly donald trump, professor, but also obama party member. the predecessor donald trump beaten him. how have you actually implemented in many functions since he came into office? and but this, this kind of mcmaname a picture of freedom which, which beneatha painted. you know, i'm, i agree with her funny down the line when we starting a few more measures. but at the moment we've seen bite and failed to take action on a devastating and according to the united nations illegal embargo on diesel import, which is really affecting the venezuela capacity to move food from the countryside to the cities and defeated population amongst other thing. and we seen that by the ministration really unwilling, at the moment to take can you sort of significant steps on the, on the oil embargo infinity, which is basically cutting off 99 percent of it or with national income you could
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say. and so you know that the move on the lp got was a positive and i think i have to be class, but i personally see it as a preamble. we can take to the talks and mexico, a slight softening of the position from washington to try to, to, to show that there is room to negotiate that, to convince correct that, that, you know, there is potential to lift some of the other measures. should that be taken? and i think this is really where we come to the crux of a map of every these talks and mexico will only have one real goes to show if there is political maturity from base. and if the why they come arise claiming that missouri, the power over the talks will not work because if a lack of maturity, if they could be said from the more government and of course from washing them. so paul, just back on the issue of the biden, and in some administration and the u. s, what you're saying is from the, from era through to the biden era, there really hasn't been much change in your opinion, right?
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no change or whoever in the 7 months have items been in office and since last year? correct. ok, vanessa. vanessa. go ahead. i know you want to jump in there. yes, no, i do agree with paul's analysis that you know, that biden is basically has inherited the sanctions really got going. first, sanctions runs obama. they got going much stronger under the under, under trump. and part of the reason i was personally involved, a part of that, which was the turning point was the hunger bond coach out in front of the goldman sachs headquarters, which actually helped organize, which was at the time if you remember in 2017, the protest really caught that wall and we had kids being shot at point blank range and being a nova. and at that time, goldman sachs 100 a bunch of hundreds of millions of dollars to my ludo and that really that pro chest that got really the front page of every financial media in the world really started, you know, kicked the sanctions into high gear and people realize that this is, you know,
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murderous i regime murdering it, it citizens and that better swans were standing up to that. so i think i also published yesterday in the energy advise or publication of the inter american dialogue, my personal views of how this negotiation should happen. i do agree that you know there if that the 1st things that should be negotiated in terms of lifting of oil sanctions, should be that in exchange for food and medicine and the diesel to get that to the people as well. was saying, however, that needs to be packed to the liberation of political prisoners that the political prisoners out and start setting up the credible elections range from international supervision for november. and then you can help the people that i mean it would be a win for minute or if he shows that he wants to help the people and have, you know, a big leaf of democracy. ok, let me just bring in and they're running out of time. thank you so much, vanessa. but let me just bring in phil for final words on,
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on the outcome and what you're going to be looking for specifically on that day the meeting is actually helps. i'm afraid i think the 13th of august is more refined to help achieve nothing else. i think it's unlikely, especially in the middle of an election campaign that we're going to get much progress beyond that. but if we can see the installation, all will have to be long term talks on the 2 sides. consider the table and really trash things out. then perhaps up to the november elections, we can see greater progress. i'm not really very committed, nothing much is going to come out of the 13th of august meeting. ok, we'll have to leave it there. thank you so much for guns and vanessa norman and pulled off some thanks for joining us. thanks for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website al jazeera dot com for further discussion. go to our facebook page dot facebook dot com, forward slash ha. inside story, enjoying the conversation on twitter. our handle is adrian side. story for myself,
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al jazeera, as a use all the news. i'm can vanelle the doha with the headlines on al jazeera protest is in thailand, have been facing off with the lease in the capital, bangkok that demanding the resignation of the prime minister and to calling for urgent reforms to the monarchy. they also want the government to be held accountable for the latest wave of the coven 19 outbreak. at least one person has been arrested so far. adela bon says, it has captured a 2nd city in an intensifying campaign against the afghan government. beyond group says it to control low ship gun, the camp.

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