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tv   [untitled]    August 31, 2021 10:30am-11:01am AST

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the challenge that lies the heads for the taliban, if they're having to explain that running their fairport is more than just making sure you've got men with guns outside the i said the perimeter fence, i mean this is going to be a long projects. is it not sure, but the airport, to be honest, maybe the importance of a porch is it's a bit exaggerated when you tickets within the context of the larger country where the population centers are the need for food and fuel to be transported. and so it is important, but it's not the main crisis in the short term. it's very important though, in the short term, was very important in terms of getting fruit and humanitarian medical late into the country. while you can only get a drop in the ocean through air lift, what the real aid has to come through borders crossing points, and that is what is required. now, there is a threats to production have dropped by about 40 percent over the last few months
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and the consumer due to the drought. you can't lift all of this. and as i said, it's important for diplomats, it's important for the un agencies. it's important for me that agencies, for even for the taliban to continue to communicate with the rest of the world. but there are many other priorities that should also be considered as far as the role of puts out. i think everyone agrees now that they play the remarkable role over the last few months. if you weeks they were instrumental in allowing the human children corner door from around capital into the airport. and i think the best as it is the ability to communicate with the taliban and communicate in a way where there is a feel of mutual respect and understanding of the concerns. but at the same time, they have also evacuated. many of the position to the taliban, particularly, and g o leaders,
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women leaders allowed them free access and continued to support both sides to have this conversation. and i think dimensions now facing the taliban is the announcement of the government. they have made a promise to make it inclusive, and the world would be watching now to see, to what degree that in cosivity is going to be taken. and of course, until now they haven't spoken clearly about declaration of the marriage, which we take as a good indication. ok. in addition to some other moves. yeah, yes. well we will be watching very closely indeed to see what form the government will take. there's going to be a lot to talk about. hedge fund barracka, but for now, thank you very much in deeds. bring you more news now from afghanistan. our coverage will continue to keep it here and i'll just 0. we'll be back with you with more from afghanistan after inside story, which is up next. stay with us. the taliban has taken control of afghanistan,
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20 years also, it was the whole from power. the country now faces a new reality. how will that impact people fall in the world? stay with us. the latest news and analysis from unknown to hearing. it's cleaned the worst attack and i've gone a sun since the taliban returned to power. the islamic state for a sun is not the greatest challenge, but what is it and how much of a threat is it to the country and i'm the world. this isn't side story. ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm daddy and abigail. the u. s. is hours away from ending its longest war, but with its 20 your mission and i've got to stop finally coming to an end. that
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leaves behind a new threats. i saw horse on, also known as ice. ok has claimed responsibility for the cabin airport attack on thursday. it killed scores of people including 13 u. s. service members. the highest number of debts in a day for the american military. in a decade. the arm group was formed in 2014 and has been responsible for some of the worst attacks. and i've gone on in recent years and it's been labeled one of the world's most dangerous terrorist organizations. so was i f, okay, found a new safe haven and taliban controlled gun, a son. and is it a serious threat to stability in the nation? let's get into today's discussion with our guests. joining us from fancy wales is a me and joe ad. tammy, he's a research fellow at george washington university's program on extremism in chancellor virginia. come around bacardi, who's the director of analytical development at new lines, institutes for strategic policy. and over in his mom about joining us from maris the had be in news, a security analyst, independent researcher on militancy. welcome to the program. thanks so much for
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your time with us on inside story for her over to you 1st. you said this, that from 2016 there have been a number of counterterrorism operations against this group i f o k. and the thought that it was dismantled. but the recent attacks you say, have reinforced the threat from this group. so how big a threat is ice? ok, and i've got to stop right now. basically realize this a day, the goblin put it, i before this has been a young report. several reports which have pointed out the fact that the type of i sell k to not be discounted out. there has been lighting this incredible and they had been the 2nd efforts in and around public. but that was not something which was which could not have been anticipated. there wasn't just about the attack . so in a way we can say that they have this formidable spent in and around god because of which they were able to last. but to what extent for her has the group and weekend
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throughout the years with the u. s. and i've got military counter terrorism efforts as well as you'll remember back in 2017, the u. s. dropping what it called the mother of all bombs in eastern afghanistan. on this group is the group has been in a restructuring phase ever since i met, you need a shabby hodge it. so what chance been doing is kind of recruiting the new official, a military and a racial come under some other restriction in order to consolidate and was boosted capabilities. and because of the radio, we have seen that they haven't been launched this high profile. i'm going over and wells, do you agree with this assessment? and i think that when you look at the course on probing, i say that you've been more mixed bag over the years in terms of their own, their own success. and actually some of them in terms of their,
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by their own discourse and rhetoric, i think the biggest successes were in the very early year was announced in 2015. and then i remember the big own darby magazine, an interview with the overall he was boasting of circle time, keen or enablement in the land line console, the territory, the implementation. hispanic boys in part of the step down to stand with walking about. and that in coincides with the supposed apis de taliban and it was that refraining from implementing it planning law. but actually then that was degraded and you certainly have being very times carried out by the group of them were basically like the for example, the targeting the c minority and in cobble. but i think the tendency of done to draw and is one particular the attacking in cobb lab or
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recently to draw a big confusion about the group. and if you guys don't, i don't see that as warranted. i wonder him. and if you can just add onto this and tell us about the origins of the group, and perhaps if you have any facts and statistics, how many members does the group have currently today? yeah, i don't have the knowledge of the statistics on, on group number. i don't even like doing that in general, but like i said about the origins of a larger the, grew on the very beginning from both the afghan and pakistani taliban. so drawing people from both sides of the borders when in fact time, you know, didn't gone over into east and they did also drawn them back by elsewhere enough. but primarily today it's something operating out of the
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country and they were claiming many attacks. for example, of the lowest scales and this, of course, this bombing, which could be more of the student's date. but there were many taxes on the claims in the city of july, the bad and recent months, which they a fascinating afghan government now. and also the, came some more small scale attacks on was taking over the country attacks against the taliban. but again, to the very small scale. yeah. and yeah, this particular cobble attack, i see it that was more of a right opportunity to do it, made a very hasty and disorganized withdrawal of the u. s. and other western countries. ok, come on in virginia. do you agree with the assessment that the that the aim of the attack on thursday at cobble airport was meant to? so instability on behalf of the group. and what do you think the long term aim of ice o k is in afghanistan?
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are they looking to build some sort of caliphate, like i feel in iraq and syria? yes, to the answer to your question. the both questions is yes, but let me elaborate. so as i pointed out in my wall street journal piece from saturday that the taller bon emerett will not succeed for a simple reason that the you cannot have a group that is deeply india logical and has pretty much a similar ideology. there's very little difference in the ideology of paula bon and isis because the only differences in terms of the type of state that they want. otherwise the ideology is similar and this is a fluid battlespace both in physical and id ational terms. so the more of the taliban become pragmatic, the more they're going to lose people. and that is what i was counting on now. isis has has for many, many years beginning in iraq,
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even when it was not called isis. it's essentially immersed started this bombing campaign in the midst of a chaos. so now what you have is an afghan government that is collapse dramatically in 9 days. us forces are all but gone. the taliban have not taken over as you know, they're just putting down roots. they haven't announced the government. and so this is a transition period, very k arctic. and this is, this is the opportunity that isis is always looking for to start it's operations. and i suspect that these operations will become more and more intense and more frequent as time goes by. and yes, i mean look, if iraq and syria are places where there was dismantle and they're going to try elsewhere. and this is a place where the us forces are pulled out and there isn't any likelihood of the united states going back in, in a big way. it may send tens of thousands of troops if the situation worse than like
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they did in iraq in 2014. but they're not going to bring in the large amounts of troops into the country, and there is no states to begin with. so this from isis point of view is great. and then there, there is a lot of room where they can operate. i'm and was right that there's a huge pocket, probably taller bon presence. you know, people who are disaffected by the $500.00 bond or were in groups like less than john, be blue cross over into isis. and so this is seen as a burg pile battlespace by isis. so let me just get this straight. what you're saying also is that the group in your opinion, wants to establish a caliphate. and also, once they're re establish some sort of relevance in august on
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well, they're already relevant. they just have to expand their operations. they have to take advantage of the vacuum strategic vacuum that has been created. they will want to expand into pockets on as well, where there are files around. and you know, places in on the western periphery of pockets on that were formerly under the control at one point from 2007 to the early 20 ten's, by the possibilities all a bond. so this is a battle space that they know in the, at the end of the day isis in the hold on, right. it's enough. one is done in our people from outside. this is an ice, is parachuting, people from the mother ship that you know, in the arab world, these are locals who were battled hard and they know the terrain. and they're coming out under a new labels. and they see that they have a better opportunity to overwhelm the situation because the taliban are now veering into pragmatism because they have to govern. and these are precisely the kind of
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conditions that isis, which is a hard line. perhaps the most extreme job is group in the world. definitely the most extreme you how to group in the world is going to try and take advantage of ok if i had, we've seen the u. s. responding militarily so far to the group. but does this risk, does this run the risk rather of drawing american forces back into have got to stop at some point when, you know they're supposed to be leaving an ending this war in just a few hours time? i don't think so. the american officials will be thinking about coming back to apply to someone living in a few hours from now on because i've gone, i will not be happy with this decision or even returning of american troops on regarding a fund. so they will be having, they will have to rely on a fund and have to sort of formal cooperation with them in order to deal with the
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ice is great and i just try to force on ok. we're going to talk about the relationship between the taliban and ice. ok? just a moment, but 1st amen. let me ask you this. in 2015, the group released an audio tape in which the speaker revealed the group's expansions into what he called the land of her son. and that's a term that encompasses not just going to son, but areas as well or south asia as well as reportedly parts of china. so how much of a threat does i so opposed to other countries? i would clarify i. li, yes. so originally when is planning state court on probing was announced, i'm pretty sure the idea of that was not only is dan, but why the reason for example, including pakistan and even the diamond state for son. he talked about attacks and by done in interview with dominic in 2016,
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but what you actually have seen now with these, let me say, is they designated that for sol provinces, or i see bo pack is done and india and they claim attacks and without media propaganda under those tables, so the horse on the probably leave lives the currently now only seems to apply to these by next day operating in the board that i've got to stand as we recognize there. so i g, a way, there is a, has always been a type capacity for buying. they'd be your, in the region beyond the, all orders of up get it done. and it was then, it was been formalized through the creation of these separate, separate new provinces of pakistan and india. and had been long about how was pakistan going to deal with the threat?
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right, not likely, it does not cause a fetus correct or image attached to bucks in future if for some preventive able to control in what is done on it to increase its medical and then it can possibly become just 2 bucks. right. but according to our congressional research service report for had, i mean, it pretty much outlines that many, if it's initial members, were fighters with a ton of bond in pakistan. that's an organization. in fact, the son give us some context to that is back in july 2015. when it was the 1st time prevents officer launched members directors from fox and about wanting to buy some members from oak. then it's going to be that to disperse. i believe. so there are a number of fox, any militants who joined search engines on t, t p that he could do for
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a sample. and so over the years they were able to claim attacks and bucks been due to the collaboration with local groups including us, which will allow me because of the collaboration with this book. we're able to claim are going to type of text box that i went and made $3900.00 when they formed it on slimy supper once in a way decided to work on individual basis instead of liberating with other local american goods. ok, so as you've been hearing the tell about an ice ok, aren't the only armed groups operating in and around. i've got a son, i'll keita has been a primary u. s. target and i've gone on since 2001 a report by the u. s. defense department says the group poses a limited threat because it's mainly focused on survival. there is also the ha, connie network gets an official semi autonomy component of the afghan taliban and the ally of al title. there's also a number of smaller groups like that's a headache each other by pakistan that's also known as the pakistani taliban
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fighters fought alongside the afghan taliban against the afghan government. come run back to you. so report seems to suggest that ice ok are link to the taliban via 3rd party and not party is the connie network. what is the relationship between the 3 so it's not really clear that the half gaudy network is linked to isis. it is definitely the case that these are linked to both pocket bunny intelligence and kaiser. and the ha, connie's now occupied a position in the senior leadership on the top on movement. so, and they claim my institute here at new lines is duper strategy policies. our magazine, the new lines magazine published the piece to be in by an african journalist who interviewed honest connie, the youngest son of the founder of the network. and the brother of that, i've been with godaddy who is the number 2 leader under the light. and it's all
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about leadership and then that piece, you know, it's very clear that this is all a bond. how connie's are very much paula bon. and they want to be able to gain power. and but yes, this is a fluid battlespace. the more hard line elements can, as i've been arguing, can be disillusion very easily. if it's all a bond start to make compromises on ideology. and so a lot of these have connie's can go over to, you know, the, the ice isis. and because the hard copies are linked to not just either but other foreign fighters, like people from central asia, the russian federation, even weavers. they are. there is a huge risk of this spill over becoming a conduit for people who are now under the paula bon monaco, the, the afghan,
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follow me on monitor to go over and crossover and say, you know, we're joining isis and strengthening their ranks. we saw this in theory, you know, there are multiple groups that were not ices, but they lost a lot of fighters to isis over the years. a man how, what is the relationship like between the taliban and ice? ok, are they rivals? as many analysts seem to say or is the relationship not so black and white? no, i would say it is the black and white relationship between lying state or sun province and taliban. because in the land me space view on the view of designs, the or some province and these and also the why the group, the taliban is become a so called apis. de movement for a number of reasons. one being that they don't implemented by law properly. but it could go back to a compromises that can run mention. there's also the in the view
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that they will outreach to the minority and relations of iran. iran and also that the taliban is suppose the nationalists, new cause wants would be by the state which doesn't recognize national borders, but ultimately want a caliphate that dominate the entire glo. so there's actually a very clear ideological split between the 2. for those reasons, from the states perspective, whether all tallied by members, of course, actually a guilty activation fee or some problems makes again, that is another issue. but that's, that's you have design or some problems of taliban. and so for that reason the 2 sides are all right, so then how will the taliban then in now that the taliban is in control of most of
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have gone to sun. how's it going to ensure that ice ok doesn't gain ground in the country and doesn't continue to do attacks like the ones that we saw it airport. well, i don't think it's going to be possible to completely destroy, to destroy completely correspond probably. and then being able to stop it and conduct the operation in my line. there's always go there. always going to be people who sympathize with this project. and but i so there will be that will be a tag. they, i ease is that nation. and they could be more bombings in the future. but i am more skeptical of the idea of these by they didn't or thought or some problems being able to ca, about significant territorial control right now. and dancing is governance project, as we saw in the earlier days for robin's and also in comparison with
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the height of its power, iraq and syria camera. would you like to respond to that? because i know that the beginning of the show you were saying that you believe ice ok. does want to establish a caliphate and, and carve out the ground for them. yes, i mean if you look at the opportunities that a lot of stuff presented us with vacuum and the strategic depth, the hottest enjoy in our neighboring pockets on. i mean, this is, this is something that, you know, clearly points to isis investing so many resources into the region because of the need to establish that. i mean, they have been trying in iraq and syria. they established this a killer fate of sorts. but it was dismantled, they lost territory, and i think it's going to be some time before they regained their bearing their
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here, the conditions are far more right from their point of view. there is no government and honest on pockets on is a very, very weak state level. you cannot speaking and is already bracing for you know, a spill over from atlanta is done. so, i mean, i would be really surprised. this is not intending the car about a territorial state. i think that the problem that the united states and its allies really base now is not immediately honest on becoming a launchpad for attacks against the west. but i think that what we'll see is a lot of on becoming a nucleus for another attempt at kilo, say, 2 point. oh, so that is where i think that the focus of the united states and its allies should be in making sure that does not happen. how do you do that is actually very, very difficult because you don't have reliable allies. yes, there is,
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and the president is right, president biden. what he says, the college and interests are what going to drive them to cooperate. but it's not going to be simple. the taller man have to balance many imperatives, so they cannot be a reliable partner. and this is why this is going to be very difficult, right? and i think at some point, when you know, the situation deteriorates. you know, i can see the united states, you know, conducting some operations on its own. what does this holiday unlike it or not? but, you know, this is, i'm talking about a, a medium term, a scenario, okay? if i had the final word to you, i mean come, ron was just saying that the taliban leadership share is security now with western countries and the united states or rather the importance of security and i've gone on. so to what extent do you think that ice ok, pose a major security challenge for the taliban right now? and how is that all about going to deal with them in the short or so when to
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continue with the policy of creating panic and kill holler in the long term debt. able to get at the 3 in atlanta stock and able to give them a new medical check, then it will emerge. main tract of land valid on and in order to deal with the credit is very important that they have to ensure that the. busy file ranks under may not like them and so it does no kind of any defection, crescent ok, we'll have to leave it there. thank you so much to all our guest aimen july due to me, me coming on bahati and for having a bill. thanks for joining us. thank you for watching. you can see the program again anytime by visiting our website, algebra dot com for further discussion, you can go to our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. you can join the conversation on twitter. handle is at a inside story for myself and the whole team right here. and how thanks for watching and bye bye for now. the
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