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tv   Inside Story  Al Jazeera  January 28, 2022 3:30am-4:01am AST

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texas disease specialist who poses cove with vaccines, the children. hundreds of fish have died after freezing temperatures hit a lagoon in western greece. the fish are all sea bream which can't survive in temperatures lower than 4 degrees celsius. they're part of a fish from and weren't able to be move fast enough to allow them to swim, to warmer waters. the east mediterranean has been affected by a cold front, but heavy snowfall in athens and then a sample. ah . so this is out a 0, and these are the top stories, and you as president, joe biden has reiterated to, as you creating counts pot, washington's readiness to respond decisively if russia invades ukraine, the u. s. has requested a public un security council meeting on monday to discuss what it calls, rushes, threatening behavior. rushes for ministry meanwhile says the idea of a war with ukraine is unacceptable. but another official from the ministry warned
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a nuclear missile crisis, where the u. s. is inevitable if checks aren't in place to turn tensions down, ought to promote together to james base is more from the un. some experts believe that president putin may not have decided yet whether he's going to invade ukraine . the 1st meeting of the un security council on the current crisis is expected on monday, and russia were looking for the support of china. and that's why some diplomats believe the russians may wait to launch minute reaction until the event that china has so much about the beijing winter olympics is over in mid february. because if i says, new military leader says the country will return to constitutional order when conditions are right. the tenant colonel pull on read the amoeba as address the nation for the 1st time since seizing power in a qu on monday. the 1st female president of honduras has been sworn and see a martyr. castro takes over from to turn, present one, orlando another's a 62 year old castro faces high expectations to solve the dispute over who leads
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the newly elected congress. us president joe biden has confirmed he will nominate the 1st black women to the supreme court is praised. outgoing justice stephen bry, for his 27 years on america's highest judicial body. u. k. prime minister abroad johnson has confirmed he intends to release in full report into parties at his residence during long term police, conducting their own inquiry into potential reaches of current of our us restriction spotify. as we're moving neil young's music out to the rock star platform to choose between him and podcast, the j reagan young accuses reagan has spread uncovered misinformation. the j reagan experience of the top podcast is put a fi with an estimated $200000000.00 downloads per month. table headlines. one used right after inside story. ah,
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can europe be weaned off russian gas? lead is worried that moscow will turn off to taps, if tensions with ukraine wilson. but will the alternative be enough to fill europe energy needs? this isn't sensory. ah, i walk into the program, i'm in ron con rushes, the biggest source of natural gas for your it's crucial fading up homes, especially during the winter. moscow's disrupted gas flows in the possible political pups is, for example, when russia annexed crimea in 2014, so as tensions on ukraine,
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worse than european leaders are worried about history being repeated. the united states is scrambling to help in europe in ally, secure alternatives. it's negotiating with oil and gas supplies. in north africa, the middle east and asia, the mayor of got that. the world's largest producer of liquefied natural gas rollin g is due to meet the u. s. president. on monday, washington concedes diverting global glass supplies will be a huge task. no question. there are logistical challenges of especially moving natural gas. we. we know that that's part of our discussion with a lot of these companies and countries. um, but again, these conversations are ongoing and we don't intend to fail him here of guess more than 40 percent of his natural gas and russia. but a 3rd of that passes through ukraine. moscow has already reduced the amount flowing into europe, causing shortages and pushing prices to record levels. now russia that threatened to cut supplies further if sanctions are imposed and they're not just on gas,
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but also on oil and metals. some countries depend on russia more than others. germany gets more than half of its gas supplies from russia. and that dependency would increase if the german government gives its final approval to the nord stream to pipeline. ah, let's bring our guests in moscow puzzle. failed in our a defense and military analyst in burn cornelia mayor, seo of mayor resource and the specialist in oil. and gas and in berlin. o, rick brooklyn, a professor of political science at stanford university in berlin. welcome to the program. let's begin. inborn with a colina maya calling. this is not as easy as russia, switching off the gas pipeline. and america coming to rescue with lots of new natural gas is it's a lot more complicated than that. oh, it's much, much more complicated because you know, the, some gas pipelines, the pipeline gas from russia that bates 5060 years back. and these are old
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relationships and, and europe only gets that much m l n g guess which can, which comes partially from the u. s. m. so it's not quite, it's not quite that easy. and for russia, it's also different than it was last time around, which is 2014. when the crimean ukraine crisis happened, because at that time, russia was totally dependent for 8 and a 2 revenues on europe. now about 30 plus percent of its own all goes to china, 40 plus percent were shamia. and in terms of gas, also the chinese are off take is increasing. so we'll see it's still 72 percent it's, it's dwindling. so we're in a very, very different economic and cio political environment or pover hogan. however,
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does that mean the russia has in some respect, some regards the upper hand. it can actually threaten to cut supplies, but not completely because it doesn't have the money. but that does have an impact on europe. well, the russian official position is that russia will not threaten or cut supplies. but if there's going to be a further escalation, may be been there was some fighting on the border there with more or less effectively, actually technically cut the gas if and suppliers we through ukraine and the so that's a situation where russian of gas surprised the europe could be drastically cut and maybe could be cut altogether, and that would be bad for everyone. because russia, yes, it has right now. so it means applying some natural gas to ukraine through
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china, or we're building up the capability to exports liquefied gas in the north. but still the main russian suburban of a rain russian client is europe. and of course, russia itself. russia gives a surprise, a lot of gas to its own people and some industries, but europe is of course, very important. you can't really divert right now. technically, the gas that goes to europe, again diverted to china that just simply or some other kind of market debt that won't work. so this is going to be, if there is going to be a, caught that boy but, but all of try to make it very short, because it's going to be disastrous for all sides. alert over a broker in berlin. this is not just the case of kind of geo politics being played out, but it's also g a business as well. these pipelines on just run by countries. they run by corporations. a lot of those corporations are going to lose billions of dollars. if this goes on for any length of time, did they have
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a site in what russia might be able to do? well, i wouldn't think too much of the influence of corporations, but it is very clear that it's not only about politics, it's also about business. the united states became in december, the largest produce produce of liquefied gas. and they are fracking to st all over the country urgently needs to explore new markets. so it was very hard for everyone in the united states to understand why an ally like germany signs a deal with russia to enhance the dependency. when the united states provide security and germany bias, even war gas from russia at times when we declared that because of climate change, we will reduce energy hunger that stands from fossil fuels. if that's a very interesting point to i. busy miss my let said take up with you. there is
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a like when we're talking about not just business, but we're talking about politics as well. however, we have an interesting point that the americans provide security to germany. germany is buying gas from russia is wise that well, you know, and the days of a historic relationship between russia and germany and, and determine the ross. so german business goes well beyond the gas but, but yeah, you, germany needs gas to heat, it's houses. and when you look at what happened over the last few months in terms of escalating gas prices and inflation coming from it, it was, was quite em something you know, a 400 percent more, 500 percent more. so dad was quite quite a bit. so in dad sent some if you r e, it did that, this is important and yes,
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we all want to do. we will want to be less dependent on fossil fuels. but that energy transition is not going to happen over night and let us not forget that gas is the cleanest fossil fuel. so it's a good transitional fuel. so in that sense, it's important that billions of dollars have been invested into the north stream to pipeline a possible. this is not just about then the, the west worrying about energy supplies. russia relies on this foreign currency the, the money it makes from orland gas pipelines like so. russia, this is going to home russia as well, or is it any kind of a break up buffer relationship with europe or harm russia? immensely. europe, as russia's biggest, i mean european union is russia's biggest trading partner ago in terms of nations though, china right now, it's number one, but as a block, europe,
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europe is more important and there's a lot of old, a real, a business relationship, especially between mosque or russia and germany, there's a lot of connections on different levels. i mean, russian president, redeemer portion is very fluent and german and addressed the bundle stark, once speaking german. so the, the russia was always looking to, for a special relationship with germany and germ drive, very much wants to make germany a kind of hub for russia and gas supplies to all of western europe, and possibly bypassing ukraine. and that would be our kind of break up of that through a while and break up of those relationship would be very costly in terms of poetical and in terms of money to or this isn't the 1st time we've seen energy being used as
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a diplomatic political weapon this happened in the seventy's when opec decided it wasn't going to supply the west with oil over a variety of different things, including actually how much money they were getting for, for their oil. so at the, had there been lessons learned from previous situations like this, or is it a once again, it's going in blindly. this is actually something that history seems to repeat itself because the situation in the 1970 is when opec entered the scene as a cartel. that drastically increased the, not only the energy costs, but the political costs of energy for energy hungry industrialized countries like germany. we had a social democratic government and the social democratic government used the trade relations with. ready russia as a trust building instrument to widen the scope of dialogue with soviet union counterparts to paved the way forward then happened as the end of the cold war
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and the re unification of germany and the you re only vacation of the divided continent. now, again, we have a social democratic government and a lot of the older person. now, this flirting with the idea that we could do something similar, try to understand russians vested interests, and try to build a bridge and be less confrontational. this is also strongly supported by governors in the eastern part of germany will also believe that russia has a point in its line of argumentation. but germany is isolated in that perspective. and every one else believes that it would be far better if the west speaks with one voice and sense of strict sickness to russia, that it should never have our cross right. lions. and again violate international law. so in this mish mash and she is not just a question of will our homes be warm but also will germany pay a prize?
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i dropped the north street to coney meyer. i see you kind of disagreeing that with a guest in berlin. how to say why, why, why you disagreeing? well, i'm agreeing and i'm disagreeing. i think yes, germany and the german government am, are very and especially in the eastern part of our some of germany. they're very close to that they did, they do want to see that that, that and the to relationship with russia going on where i disagree slightly. is that the previous government with, with mrs. marco, it was very clear that that norms north stream too was non negotiable and it would go ahead and i was thinking of the billions of dollars that have been invested. you can understand why that is the case. whereas now, yes, all of sholtes. he's a social there muskrat, and he wants to see no strain to come on stream, but he is in bed or in coalition with the greens who are very look they differently
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at a fossil fuels of which gas this one and b, especially the foreign minister landing and that lena bear book is very skeptical of russia and human rights policy and so on and is made no call about it. so yes, wilson, i think all of shall still wants to see no extreme. still going ahead. it's not quite as clear cut as that as i think it was before. the new government puzzles hogan. how the amir of cattle. one of the biggest supplies of ellen, g. liquid notch for i can never say rush. ellen delicious, cooler guess, has been we'll be meeting with biden, very short is of concern to the russians. i will. this is an opportunity, of course, for the american or gas industry to increase its share of the european market. actually have new sports or facilities coming online and soon and they
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can increase their sports of gas and natural gas. and shelley, as a european market is a reliable market. so yes, the for them, that's an opportunity. and also there's a political agenda there to put the europeans into i and, and kind of lead them in the quest to against russia. and that's kind of what that, how it works during the cold war often. and now apparently it's the old card table, the old cards, but with the new meaning, i mean one sanctuary in during the $67.00 warren and middle east america was, which was then an oil exporter helped a year about when there was an arab. i break off of europe in oil exports that time. it didn't work, of course in 73,
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it was already very different. and then it didn't work very well by the for opec, but american now is taking on that position. and that's for them very advantageous . what do you think over a group that america is taking on effectively energy diplomacy, energy policies that are going to help it with europe? i mean, is it that simple? i kind of think it isn't. well, i was really surprised a few years ago when the congress sanctioned companies that are located in ally countries in nato countries. because this was unheard of that a country flexes muscles with such an obvious economic interest. although we keep them dependent on each other and we are in the same boat when it comes to the security alliance. but coming back to the previous question, maybe i didn't make myself clear. what i wanted to say is,
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this is the picture of interest in the new government. if you ask my personal opinion, the level of escalation makes not stream to dead. it's not. hampton throws your key pressure. the pressure from neighboring countries, the pressure from the united states, makes it very, very unlikely that germany can go on with conditions that have trusted. you changed wells, pulled that to both of august has begin with the calling your maya notes for him to his dead course. wrong statement, i don't think it's that yet. i don't think it's that yet, because in the end we're dealing with them or chris's and if gas prices are going to high and people know it's heat versus food and people will, will, it will, it will well go in and it's billions and billions of dollars and it's not gas from billions, it's also r w e. billions that, that went in there. and just quickly coming back to ellen, te liquefied natural gas. yes, there is u. s not l empty that can come in to europe,
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but we don't have that many re gas, if he can cation tramos yet. that can take out all d, m, all the, all the pipeline gas coming from the east. that's, that's the 1st thing. and let us not forget, in terms of cat that most of the got that a gas goes towards east and china has become very big china. this here is becoming the largest importer of l n t. after japan and korea. so we have, we'll, we'll competition here for the if are the l m t molecules of pablo. same question to you know, streams, who pipeline from russia into germany, august and berlin says is effectively dead. what do you think one long matter? of course, that would be very bad news for office depot and may be smart. that would actually be mean technically it's built, it's there. ah, if the present acute crisis, so we're ukraine, them between russia and the west. russia may go get some kind of more or less
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permanent. resolution may be more stream, could be part of that resolution. see a kind of bonus for russia, taking a bu, acting more. ah, in a more kind of concerned show matters. another place that could be part of a quid pro quo between no rush and the west, or at least may be germany with one to make it part of a quid pro quo. so that's not most likely yet dead, but it's in serious problems. that's of back. oh right brooklyn you've had well to guess have had to say anything there that might change your mind. well, if this is a bargain shaped, one can discuss it because it is very difficult to see what other outcome could be presented as a positive result that moscow can present as a victory and this confrontational situation. if this discussion would have been
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a year ago, i would have totally agreed that we talk about energy. and we are dependent on the imports given that germany is fading out from nuclear and coal at the same time. and we cannot increase renewables as quickly as necessary to feed the energy hunger in an industrial country like germany. but now that we face a $100000.00 russian troops and circling ukraine, germany is not willing to deliver our arms to ukraine. and every one else is looking at the largest country in europe. that is, doesn't live up to the expectations of nato. and what's ukraine expect from germany? and if we then continue as business as usual with opening not supreme tool that we become completely unreliable. but if this is the bargain shape, and actually what the kremlin is mostly interested in, that they don't want to dominate the billions that have been invested in not speak
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to. it might be a happy ending for everyone involved. well, let's talk about the other bargaining chip, which is catherine coline la, as i understand it. so has a number of deals with eastern countries. picky china? as you mentioned, a lot of those deals are on 25 year terms. so how do, how does that change when it comes to spare capacity? does cattle have the ability to actually give some gas to europe or is it all tied up in long term deals? is there, is there capacity for cattle to get involved at the bequest of the, the americans there is capacity for cut out to get it to get involved at the bequest us or some of us of america. but there are limitations to that. and then let's not forget days, australia, there are other 4 uses of l n g who can, who can trip in as well. but again, it becomes a matter of price. and yes, we have the geopolitical dimension. but we also math democracies. we have
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governments who need to get re elected and if, if costs are for heating people's houses and went the spiral out of control it, that becomes quite tough. so i'm optimistic that that one can find some sort of accommodation and that right. so it's very clear that this is part of their, of their bargaining strategy to find some accommodation on north stream to and let us not forget, you know, we all feel sorry for the ukraine, but you, no doubt it. if it's not been that clear, cut, clear sailing between the ukraine and russia and between the ukraine and europe. and it's, it's, it's, it gas and paying an energy bills and so on has been and has been a, has been an issue. so, so it's, it's, it's, it's just very, very complex indeed. oppo hogan how it like, where does russia back down here?
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is it when they get reassurance, is that ukraine won't join nato, which is a key demand. is it when they withdrawal their troops are according to the best of the americans, or is it simply when there's a gas and oil diplomacy, political solution presented to them? what was the whale for russia? melissa glennie complex situation and their complex actually opinions and masked with can it's not that we're all kind of marching here in a one a file or they are different opinions inside the crime one and a grubman administration of how to deal with this situation. oh, president, putin of course, is the ultimate decision maker, but he is more of a moderator between the for the pit as serious groups of opinions. i hope that there will be, of course, there will be lots of military maneuvers. they're happening right now. hiking state, the military readiness and all that stuff which could result in military escrow
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asia or a bit won't. and the maneuvers low and the of the situation will kind of calm down, at least in march, april. there would be time to begins, do something on the front of negotiations. and some of this very carpet is not that there is the one kind of issue that changes all the rest. it's a very complex situation and sorry with that we are running out of time. i'm sorry we are running out of time to do and i come to our guest in berlin. i mean to clearly germany is a big part of all of this. where are they hoping this situation lands are they hoping for that it will be over quickly? will, can they, are they in this for the long haul? well, it's not so much a question of timing, the demand from russia to guarantee that nato and the european union won't expand any further questions. the core principle of what western organizations stand for.
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this is the self determination off nations that can decide whether they join an organization or not. so we cannot decide other countries whether they send an application to join an organization or not. politically or practically, ukraine is far from joining ever. the european union on a door is close without saying everybody knows it. so i do not really see what russia gets out of this. and if it starts with a made a statement that it is afraid of nato is attacking the russian soil. and in the end, everything all it gets out is the opening of north street. it sounds to me, i want to thank all our guests. pablo felt going out coline and over at brooklyn, and thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by this thing.
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all websites out there, a dot com for the discussion. go to a facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. and you can also join the conversation on twitter handle is a jane side story from me. and ron, calling from the whole team, hey ah, ah, in a series of original documentary algebra, or correspondence, explore the stories which have marked their lives and careers. gabrielle is on the cover, the tragic story of 2 rain forest activists, brutally killed fighting the devastation brought about by loggers and ranches.
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returning to the amazon, gabriel learned how their campaign for sustainable development brought them on a collision course with those who sought to profit from the forest destruction are, does your correspondence february on? i'll just either china host the winter olympics, but will diplomatic boycott and the corona vibrate, overshadow the event rigorous debate them unflinching questions. up front cuts through the headlights to challenge conventional wisdom. al jazeera keeps you up to date as mason tackle the overcome, buried amid continued vaccine inequality. 11 east investigates how breakfast the pandemic and changing pace are causing the great british curry crisis. the african union holds its 35th ordinary session a 1st with israel as an observer state, with several nations campaigning against israel status and pressing issues across the continent. there is much disgust, february on al jazeera ah,
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revealing eco friendly solutions to come back threats to our planet on al jazeera. ah hello, ms. clark. this is al zera's top stories u. s. a. president joe biden has reiterated to ukraine and counterpart washington's readiness to respond decisively if russia invade ukraine. the u. s. has requested a un security council meeting on monday to discuss what it calls russia's threatening behavior. our diplomatic editor james base looked at whether there is still a chance to avoid military confrontation through diplomacy. hello, in recent weeks, have seen an unprecedented flurry of diplomacy. efforts have intensified as the threat of war grows. a war many believe could now be imminent and very dangerous.
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meanwhile, troops tanks and weapons continued.


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