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tv   Inside Story  Al Jazeera  April 15, 2022 3:30am-4:01am AST

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shall data in the last week. there hasn't been a single gang killing compared to $62.00 murders in just one day last month. and the president is winning gang seriously, don't behave. he'll take it out on their imprisoned colleagues by reducing their meals from to a day to none at all. to see you, newman al jazeera. ah, what's your dessert with me? said robin. a reminder of our top stories. the biggest ship in russia's black sea fleet has been sunk by a blast, forcing its 500 member crew to evacuate. the russian defense ministry says ammunition exploded on board its warship moskva, but the ukrainian military says it hit the vessel with cruise missiles. russell said that has more from keith early in the day, i have talked to a senior army official in euchre in union official here. and he told me that they
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have a, he had the dis worship, despite rushes or russians allegation that it was caused by an explosion. he said that they have here there that, that the worship by a neptune a cruise missile. so i asked him, how is that possible while a dis, a most were worship, is having a very advanced e m l defense systems. israeli army says dozens of palestinians have been arrested and had weapons confiscated as part of what israel calls counter terrorism operations in the occupied west bank. it's forces of also kill 6 palestinians, including a 14 year old boy in the past 24 hours. more rain is expected to in south africa were flooding, already killed at least $341.00 people. the disaster near the east coast city of durban follows the heaviest rain in 60 years. the british prime minister has announced that some asylum seekers trying to enter the u. k will be center one
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death of processing. the plan has been criticized by rights groups and opposition politicians. the world's riches man wants to buy twitter. isla mass cars put in a beta amount due to more than $43000000000.00 for the entire company. i recently bought a 9 percent state meeting. he's already its largest shareholder. twitter says it will carefully review the offer must says twitter full shorter it's free speech principles and needs a complete overhaul. campaigning is underway for the french presidential run off later this month. far right, kansas. marine. the pen has been avenue in the south of the country. her rival president amendment neck roll that voters in the northern port city of the of the final vote will be on april 24th for the stories on our website at delta 0 dot com, more news and half now inside stories next on onto the ah,
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the war in ukraine is creating what the un calls a perfect storm of crises for developing countries. fighting has driven up global food and fuel prices. 1.7000000000 people could go hungry. so what are the solutions? this is inside story. ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm a jim jim. rush's invasion of ukraine has up ended the flow of food, fuel and money around the world. the u. n. warns the conflict. cascading effects
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could have an impact on nearly 1700000000 people. that's because russia and ukraine, our major food and energy suppliers, they grow much of the wheat, barley, mays, and sunflower oil. the developing nations depend on prices for the staple items have reached record high since february, when the war began. the conflict and western sanctions have also disrupted fertilizer exports from russia and bellows. global oil and gas prices are up as well as countries limit transactions with russia doughty, super charging. as soon as i mentioned, cries is full of energy and finance. that is bumbling. some of the world's most vulnerable people, countries and economies. and all these comes at the time when developing countries are already struggling with the slate of challenges, not of data making. russia and ukraine produce about 30 percent of the world's wheat and barley. the u. n. says at least $36.00 nations,
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including some of the poorest to get the majority of their wheat from them. food prices are up 34 percent compared to last year. the highest levels ever recorded by the u. n. food and agriculture organization. crude oil prices have risen 60 percent compared to last year. russia and beller was also exported roughly one 5th of the world's fertilizers and their prices have more than doubled. all right, let's go and bring in our guess in a surgery, italy of dollars a boss in a senior food market analyst and a former senior economist with the you and food and agriculture organization. in johannesburg, marvin gala a development and humanitarian specialist and a regional director at oxfam for horn east and central africa. and london, chris, we for a specialist in emerging markets and chief executive officer of macro advisory, a strategic consultancy focused on russia and eurasia. a warm welcome to you all, and thanks so much for joining us today on inside story. marvin,
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let me start with you today. oxfam published a report this week saying over a quarter of a 1000000000 more people could crash into extreme levels of poverty in 2022 because of covered 19 rising global inequality. and the shock of food price rises, supercharged by the war in ukraine. just how much more dire could this situation get the situation as we see it really indeed is becoming more di and what i can reference. and i want to appreciate the opportunity to be able to reflect on this, especially coming from the one eastern central africa region in eastern africa. at the moment. we have approximately 2000000 people who are fixing that hunger crisis because of various factors. one of which is the climate change crisis cuts across the region. and in this case we, i think it manifested in the form of drought in such a country. but the p. o. p, somalia tenure, but also you know, other climate change manifestations in the form of floods in the done. so this has
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a multiply effect for when the quantity comes of how it's buried. then deaf featuring, in terms of behind the prices. and as we talk about the green crises, we have seen it reflected in the form of what price of the peak reference, what we do not in eastern africa region, is that the moment approximately 90 percent of the width is soft from ukraine and russia. and over the last couple of months and we know that is going to be more we've seen increases in terms of foot price and to over 20 percent. and that is a major concern for us because know, tony i, we've seen climate change, the drought, you know, flag resulting in hunger crisis, but also the prices, you know, mean even will people who will not have access to the food that they need. the other one you have mentioned indeed is about conflict. you know, we've had conflict in various parts of the continents and that becomes
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a compounding factor for not to mention how much the cream crisis also plays into the dynamic chris. the world economy was already in a pretty tough state due to the pandemic. how much worse have the war in ukraine made things? yeah, as you said, 8 to 12 economy was pretty fragile. starts this year, starting to recovery from 2 years, derek. and there's actually no doubt that this conflict to the consequences of this conflicts will add to those pressures and will delay the recovery. and the previous speakers already talked about the inflationary pressures, and it looks it absolutely, those pressures will get worse as we go through this year and probably into, into next year. so, and then that would have an impact on the job economy. so if you look at energy prices, of course, that are directly impacted by, by the conflicts,
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the potential that could be a reduction, then say russian oil or gas supply that's already led to a 40 percent increase in the oil price this year. and looks like the sanctions they even pressed the price higher. but the real impact i think of the global economy will be in the area of food. so i can already mentioned fleets. the price of fleet is up 45 percent begin this year. this is now planting season in russia, ukraine. there is no reason to assume any disruption in russia planting because it's well away from the conflict zone. but the ukraine hunting area is directly in the conflicts on. so if that planting season does not go ahead and right now, it looks like it is not. then you were likely to have minimal exports from ukraine in terms of fleets and other critical grains at the end of this year. and therefore, you're likely to have shortages of particularly of weights,
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therefore leading to flower as well as some other other products later this year. and then the other area, of course, in terms of global food is of course russia, ukraine, better roost area is a big supplier. of fertilizers of potash, which is used around the world in asia, in india and africa. they source a lot of fertilizer from russia, better is ukraine, and the prices of those product because of the input prices of gas and energy will also rise. so no matter how you look at it, we've had a bad start year in terms of food inflation. it very much looks like it's going to get worse over the rest of this year and coming in 2023. bill reza, your heard their apartment and chris both speak about the fact that even before the war, global food prices were already spiking. there were several factors that caused that . some of them include the crone of iris pandemic, as well as climate change. there's other factors as well, how much has the war in ukraine exacerbated all of this?
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well, it's very difficult to put a tag or a price tag or something that fit, obviously has raised the premium risk. quite substantially. markets were title ready and there was no expectation that in their conduct kind of a climate that would be there before. that is prices rising almost every month for the past 12 months for the previous 2 months before the war started. that you would get ourselves into the sort of a problem and not just anywhere, but where a lot of lot of the world grain use the source. if you take, for example, w p alone, he takes a lot of his grain from a crane. and now he has to report any sources or the prices. so basically what we have, what we have today is that there is that there is it added to the uncertainty about the supply, both short term and near term, and also eat. it brought back again, lot of law of issues. joe,
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politics about the shipment. not to mention the infrastructure damage, especially or primary crane, which makes it almost impossible to predict when and how much of the crane grain is going to make it to the market. so all of that means that for, if you are importing country you, you would need to source somewhere else, you need to go for plan b. and that means, you know, you have to rely on good weather this year. the harvests will start as soon, hopefully, at least 4 weeks. right now, current indications are not so bad risks of the world. but you know, we are in the climate change situation year after year. so nothing can be surprised before it's actually been harvested algorithm can i also follow up with you about something that chris mentioned he was talking about the issue when it comes to fertilizer. now, i mean it's not just wheat. we have to talk about fertilizer prices that are also
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spiking. what kind of overall impact is that going to have? or huge. in fact, there, the fertilizer issue, the order, the made headlines going back to last june. so it's not a new problem. now. you have an addition, additionally she referred to lives there, which is that russia is the biggest supporter of it. so obviously we have to see how, how the trade fertilizer will be affected. and then is the issue of the gas, which you need to import to produce the fertilizer. and that again is a huge issue now definitely adds to the cost. now, if you are a very efficient producer and you could somehow also benefit from these high prices, you will make sure that your margins are still very healthy. you would pay for those high priced, especially mean even if you find it. because that is also issue of why so it just
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in one huge new added uncertainty on top of all the other things that we had to worry about parliament, i saw you nodding along to what the rest was saying. so i'm going to let you jump in because i want to get your take on this is, well, i mean, the more that fertilizer prices rise, the harder it's going to be too far. right? yes, it's true. and i think the 2 points that i would highlight with regard to that one is the issue of price. when we look at the african palmer, you know, more often than not, for instance, in the eastern africa region, we're talking about small menu whom are women. now, if that's the case when you're talking about price, who is going to be most impacted, and then it also becomes my 2nd point. what are the mechanisms in terms of being able to support this more from us to be able to what sustain themselves. but also look at what is their future. so it, because that to multiply effect, the quality to one time in terms of immediate need, but also means on the long term if they don't have access to that, the fact that it has an impact on their production and subsequently impacts their
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likelihood. so the price ellamin is just one touch of it, but also looking at the type of community that we're talking about, many of whom are small scale farmers that don't have really good coping mechanisms . and as such, we would have to look at what are the mechanisms that might need to be put in place to support them both on the long term, but also on assessing. but eliza chris, what kind of effect is all of his having on investors? are they now more wary about the possibility of investing an emerging markets as i one of the effects here? yeah, it is. i mean we, we talked about the impact of people's, people's lives and living in emerging markets and the rising cost of food. but, you know, to develop and of any merger market requires capital requires investment essentially requires the movement of capital from developed economies into developing economies
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. and, you know, we saw that slowing down because of corona virus investors, in, in the big developed economies start to become more risk averse, which means that they would put their money somewhere safe, you know, largely in dollars based assets in developed economies and not taking risks in developing economies, and now this situation will exacerbate that, i think the global concern you talked about in more far. we really have no idea of what happens next. critically, for example, you asked area, but the impact of global economy. we talked about food, but you know, the critical supply is gas. much of europe is critically dependent on rushing gas and the better. but what the political sentiment is, the reality is that europe simply can not got the gas from anywhere else. and it certainly would not even have a chance of getting that guys from anywhere else for about 5 or 6 years minimum with huge investment. so that if that gas were to be disrupted,
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you would have industrial disruption in europe. you would have a recession in some european countries, and therefore you'd have a global recession. and the reason i mentioned that is because it's a huge uncertainty that investors are aware of. and therefore, it certainly does lead to a reluctance by big investment funds to start taking risks so long as there is this uncertainty over the global economy, they tend to be more conservative, but where they put their money and inform you that means it usually leads to a reduction in the amount of money that's available for developing economies, and that makes their situation even worse. so i'm afraid it is something of a perfect storm, right? that we're now looking at which started with corona virus and has been exacerbated with the uncertainty. that's now hanging over the ukraine, russia conflict, and yeah, so your christian situation look good if i could just follow up with you as well when it comes to the developing economies,
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these developing countries that are already struggling with debt financing related to the corona virus pandemic. i mean, the economic outlook for these countries really couldn't be looking much worse. right now, could day. no, it looks pretty bad. there's unfortunately, if you're an investment strategist looking at a case for investing in most developing economies, it's very hard to see as an asset class, it simply is there right now. and then one other factor, of course is we're now talking about debt default possibility from russia for technical reasons, but it doesn't matter. once you start getting a technical debt default. and we had one last week from sri lanka that also adds to the more conservative stance by investors and they become a lot more wary of particularly, of developing economy risk. and therefore it adds to reluctance to, to, to, to invest. so yeah, i mean, unfortunately it's very difficult to look at to develop and you kind of be asked
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the class right now and say this is a good time to invest. everything sensible tells you none. and to wait and enforce that way, she is going to make the situation significantly worse for a lot of developing economies that need capital at this stage. they won't get it or is i guess one of or something else is really concerning. people is even if the war were to end tomorrow, and there is no telling how much longer this war will go on. but even if it were to come to a sudden end, it would still take quite a long time for things to get back to pre pandemic levels when it comes to global food supply and prices. right? frankly, i think we will never go back to the pre pandemic level or let me correct me in terms of the overall supply you made, but the supplies probably the supply routes will be very different. i think we need to give market time to, to channel to find new new routes. i would say,
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because obviously is not just a war between russia or crane. it's a, it's unfortunately something like a drawing line quite, quite an extensive division of our planet, i guess. so we're going to get you going to get a little bit of what used to have nicole in the sense. so are we going to have different type of countries, one side, or another friends and foes and so forth. so i think that i've actually trade will sort it all out. but as you recall, it was saying in terms of, we did the time for, for the changes in europe to adjust to the new new new world with gas not coming from russia or waters. also for food flows, we going to wait a couple of years. i think before we settle down with this new world order, and this is most unfortunate, especially for the poorest countries and the developing countries which are
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struggling. and frankly, i don't know what sort of solution could be presented there. but my wishes that the richer world would just, you know, try to not just think about itself as it did in the case of cobra, which is very shameful. but then when it comes to food day would really start coming up with the solid proposals that would at least cushion the poorer countries for, for the very bumpy years. that is going to definitely be ahead of us to me, the crisis that you're talking about today hasn't even begun. and so the real crisis is still has to come and go, right. i mean, do you have any idea on what it would take to solve any of these crises, like what could be done? well, had i or would anybody at this point? i think this is just more than anything else requires a collective measure by, by all the countries, by all the leaders, including russia. i think that i've been in this business for 30 years and i have
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not seen a situation like this. confronting at least the food sector will saw other crisis going on at the same time. so we do need some exceptional, i guess, measures in this in this, in this case. i think that when it comes to food, you would expect, especially countries like china, like russia to come along with the rest of the world. and at least for developing countries, make no excuses, that there will be no interruption in their supplies. and i think that one has to, again, not forget, the disaster that is happening in humanitarian disaster is happening and crane problem has to be resolved quickly and or cranium have to be looked after 1st and by most, not just any people. there are hard working people and basically we leave our believe on their hard work and the whole world is, is, depends on. so this is not just
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a one little war. some were going on. this is really likelihood of the planet apartment. i saw you reacting to somewhat absorb it was saying, did you want to jump in? yeah, i think one of the things i just want to record more than maybe, you know, what can we've been watching very many crisis across the world. what we've been talking about is the fact that it's not an ada, or in terms of the attention of the price in the wall. as you know, that if you back to the above and, you know, we do record mess at the moment that ukraine crisis has that significant impact across the globe. but we do also have other prices in the clinton and we're talking about him and we have done that done. you know what i'm talking about in the region in the semester region in terms of hunger prices, western africa, you know, with a health food crisis. so in a sense, it's about also the international community looking at the issues on the globe in
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terms of how they do have be plenty fact if there's anything, i think all of us learned from the call. we need to find him because that we are interconnected. so what does that mean really for us, on one hand, and maybe just picking up on a pointer to being talked about around dick, you know, on the african continent in the eastern africa region at the moment in terms of servicing dick. because many of our countries, i know how to look for resources to, to address the not to respond to the quality condemning, but also to look at what recovery efforts could nucleic in terms of i think it over 35 percent of the taxes have been you wait, what did we think we had to drop, even before the ukraine crisis, we had a drop of duty by about 2.7 percent. so all of that, you know, when you're talking about multiply 6 isn't really feeding into more and more, some of which gets reflected in the, in the form of conflict. so my point around that actually is that we need to be
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able to look at, you know, systems systems wait, right? what does it mean? what are the alarming, for example, on food production, the food supply chain? yes, the been only tennyson's. well, we have had a walking, you know, our food does supply as system, but clearly there such an inconsistency needs. which mean if we have a trigger or a shock on one, pat us is seemingly small pack. it has a see a humongous effect. so it's really telling us also to look again at our mechanisms and that's why i made the emphasis with on to be to round. what are we doing, especially on sustainable food systems and how me walking, especially with small scale small for the farmers that, you know, could close the loop in immediate regional markets because we do recognize that the way we've got right now in terms of the food system well, it could very well sustain itself. small economic shocks, beep economic shocks,
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have a ripple effect apartment. i want to pick up on something you just mentioned in your answer. you were talking about multiplying effects. and you also mentioned the word conflict. and that brings me to my next question, we just have about a minute and a half left. but i'm curious to get your perspective. how concerned are you that, that this, this perfect storm of variables at the world is dealing with now, which includes a climate change covered 19 pandemic. and now the warn ukraine driving up all these prices. how concerned are you that this all threatens to turn into social unrest? well, in terms of social and rest, you know, there is that likelihood, you know, we do know of countries many of what was called the arab spring. a couple of years was based on indication of such as the prices of food. you know, if you remember what is happening to news yet, what is happening in sudan? those are the triggers for many of our communities. and you know, we wanna say, how can i put food, how can i put bread on my table, those one triggers for many of the conflicts that we have. and so in that sense,
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even now people question me, what is the increase in terms of prices for me to be able to feed my family? what does that mean in terms of looking at options? what are the options if there are no options and people take, you know, what we call negative coping mechanisms. and you know, well, on one hand, you know, you might call it conflicts, it is reflected in the form of conflicts. but the other things, people who are missing meals, what examples of families opting to marry off their young daughters because they want to have less marks to feed, get some income. so the a negative coping mechanism that people then adopt, you know, which include conflicts. and fortunately, and with the resources, whether it is ford, when it is water, you know, gas being there, sort of centers of the complex. all right, well, we have run out of time. we're gonna have to leave the conversation or thank you so much for all of our guests. abdul rosa bussey and carbon gala and chris we for and
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thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time visiting our website at 0 dot com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. you can also during the conversation on twitter or handle his ad ha inside story from him from german holton here. and uh huh. i for now a ah a shilling the debates. it is no job bad to go. you know, i mean, if anyone here talks about women that i had a seem to have been says notes. how big is of the table we were taught to see
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abortion as a one way ticket street to help all of the companies. they deny any responsibility, even though they have the resources in the power to fix it, where a global audience becomes a global community. the comment section is right here. the part of today's program, this stream on al jazeera. as the warn you, praying groins on al jazeera correspondence bring you every angle. there is a new monitor in price. it erupt in on multiple fronts. not only managed to escape the water, but also the harshness of life on the russian occupation. troy street, totally destroyed. keep central station has become evacuation central station with russian forces coming. closer pensions are going up by the hour. stay with al jazeera, for the latest developments. more and more indians are going under lunar to become tool. when i want to use to investigate the length,
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some people are willing to go to reach new hires on al jazeera from the for various of correct us. so the battle fields around most of our job is to get to the truth and empower people through knowledge. ah, you want y'all to there with me, sir robin in the hall reminder of our top news stories. the biggest ship in russia's black sea fleet has been sunk by a blast, forcing its 500 men the crew to evacuate. the russian defense ministry says i munition exploded on boarded warship most, but the ukrainian military science it hit the vessel with cruise miss solve a correspond russell's for the hospital and keith, early in the day have told to a senior army official in your, in your going official here and.


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