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tv   Counting the Cost  Al Jazeera  April 18, 2022 7:30pm-8:01pm AST

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holt: and at times dangerous were some it's their only hope to provide for themselves and their families. mo, trina ultra 0, tripoli, dozens of refugees. microns have been rescued near the canary islands. 61 people, including 9 children, were picked up by the spanish coast guard. they were taken to a port on grand korea. ah, it's heavy with us. hello, adrian. and i can hear it though, how the headlines allows 0. at least 7 people have been killed in levine by russian missiles. the pounded a series of buildings in the western ukrainian city, 11 others were wounded. russia has continued hitting cities across ukraine with miss highland rocket of salts, despite withdrawing ground forces from some parts of the country. hot abdel hamid is following developed and sid look beach. this is the phrase deadly attack in this city since the beginning of the war
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a 7 weeks ago. now the mayor says that 3 of these missiles have a truck, military installation, of which one was an empty storage depot. and the 4th one actually hit a car repair workshop near the railway. and we've been there, we've seen it. it was on fire, where you could look out of the balcony earlier this morning here living with plumes of smoke everywhere, especially in the north west of this city. russia's president vladimir putin has told a televised, meeting of top economic officials that western sanctions a fact firing. he says that moscow is withstanding what he describes an acre as an economic blitzkrieg by the u. s. and europe. maybe this does have been sworn in 2 weeks after shrill anchor's entire cabinet resigned bits the latest attempt to quell protest against the government which is led by the raja parks of brothers. a number of palestinians had been injured during dawn raids carried out by his ready
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forces in the occupied west bank more than a 1000 people that arrested in villages near janine and ramallah. local palestinian groups say that they were detained on charges of resisting the occupation and taken to investigation camps thousands more south african soldiers. a pitching in to help the recovery after the worst floods in 60 years. the governor of the sent them to quote, zulu natal province where at least 443 people have died and thousands remain missing . what is austin's cause billy $700000000.00 worth of damage? dozens of people have been arrested after a 4th to have riots in sweden. violence was triggered by a far right groups, plans to burn copies of the koran in muslim neighborhoods. and those, the headlights on these continues here on out 0 right after counting the cost, which is coming up next me ah
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ah ah ah, ah hello, i'm getting opposite. counting the cost on al jazeera, you know, we can look at the world of business and economics this week. and inflation nightmare returns to hong latin america once again. central banks throughout the continents have increased interest rates sharply to chain prices, but are the financial measures working. also this week struggling with a full blown financial meltdown, lebanon reaches a preliminary deal with the international monetary fund. but are politicians ready
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to implement economic reform? and west africa is facing the worst food crisis in a decade. that while more than a quarter of africa, the population is facing hunger. so what can be done to feed the continents vulnerable people use so inflation and dipping into people's pockets almost everywhere, but latin americans are among those most severely heads. central banks throughout the continent were quick to take action, implementing aggressive interest rate increases, but the measures have done little to bring down the cost of living. if anything, consumer prices, sword, and many nations last month, the situation could get worse as the war and ukraine drives the prices of commodities up. well, the surgeon, fuel and fuel prices the sparking discontent among many latin americans. thousands of peruvians have taken to the streets to protest the rising cost of living.
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inflation hit its highest level in a quarter for century in peru, and the central bank has raised interest rates to a 13 year high to take the prices. the president petro castillo was facing cost to resign, has cut fuel taxes, and increase the minimum wage in an attempt to calm the protesters. prices are not only going up in peru, inflation has surpassed expectations right across different latin american countries in march. take a look at chili's consumer prices which posted the biggest monthly gain and almost 3 decades as bread served by around 6 percent. and energy rose by just under 3 percent, brazil, monthly inflation sort the most since 2003 as gasoline skyrocketed by almost 7 percent. the annual figure had a 20 year high in mexico, driven mainly by cooking gas and gasoline prices. and argentina's consumer prices have risen by more than 6 percent, the highest level into decades. inflation is expected to hit 60 percent by the end
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of the year. that while the region's economy is expected to grow by less than 2.4 percent this year, down from a 6.8 percent expansion in 2021. but the continent is a major global producer of commodities at a time. the world's faces supply crunches chilly is the world's leading producer of copper, whose price had an old time high in march, while brazilian columbia are among the regions biggest exporters of crude oil. well, to discuss the inflation challenge and latin america joined by carlos desousa, carlos is the director for emerging market debt portfolio manager and vanderbilt asset management. he's joining us from 0. welcome to the program, carlos desousa. so as we've been reporting, inflation forecasts and latin america are worse than expected in many countries. they're reaching levels that they haven't reached in decades. and countries like brazil, for example, tell us why that is. and are there specific reasons? inflation specific reasons to latin america. thank you for having me. yes,
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inflation in several countries is quite high, multi year high level phenomenon or franklin. so there are not that many particular reasons why inflation is high enough in america, and in fact nothing. america is a very similar level spending the rest of the world. brazil is perhaps one exception where you have inflation at the moment of 11.3 percent, which is higher than in the united states and in the rest of latin america as well . for brazil in particular, i would say that the fiscal stimulus that brazil imposed in 2020 demick was larger than the majority of the latin american countries. and in the majority of emerging markets, it was more comparable to the interest of the united states. and i also have to say that the congress related restrictions in brazil's, where much less stringent bending the rest of the world. so brazil actually started recovering faster and that's why inflation also came earlier in brazil. and the
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last reason that weakness of the brazilian embryo doing the last 2 years. however, what i have to say for brazil also was the 1st country to start hiking rates very aggressively. and he's the only country we're real interest rates. so interest rates minus inflation are actually process. so brazil already to the interest rates, to 11.75 percent. and the resilient reality has been recovering quite strongly this year. so what you're saying is the governments have taken including brazil, other countries in the continent took that measure to implement interest rate hikes . that measure has been working to tackle inflation, hiking res, things time. ready to, to faculty inflation because with central banks can influence via interest rates in aggregate demand. that usually takes some 6 months to take effect. so i would not say that it's not working. i would just say that the central banks have to be
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patient. they have to hi, grace and then maybe 6 months later, you will see inflation slowing down. moreover, central banks control or influence aggregate demand. they don't influence supply. and we are now in the world. seeing a lot of supply stops, we've seen much higher commodity prices. we're seeing the global trade has a lot of disruption. there's nothing sometimes going to do about that. and that's not particularly america, that's the global dominant. right. and that is of course, down to the ukraine war. but do you expect more price increases, especially as a warrant crate, as driving commodity prices up, prices will continue to increase because inflation is quite high and inflation is not going to drop to 0 tomorrow. therefore, prices will have to continue increasing, but that's different than inflation accelerating much more than today. so if you frame the question asked, do i expect inflation to accelerate much more? perhaps only a little bit, not very much more. do i expect prices to continue increasing?
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yes, absolutely. ok. got, let's look at, for example, president castillo, who announced tax cuts an increased minimum wage. do you think that has helped the situation in this country and what other measures should governments to talk take on to tackle this problem in your opinion? i don't think that's going to make a big difference, to be honest. what the governments can do today is number one, let the banks do their job, which so far they're doing. so be patient on that sense. and what this should do, perhaps a bit more is to increase transfers of direct cash transfer as do the work so that they are not as effective. for example, a week ago there were, this brought us in peru and the professors were saying that it was high. so that wasn't one of the main reasons that protest, but inflation and bruce actually the low, it's not in america, it's about 6.2 percent, which is low, much lower than in the united states and much lower than the euro zone. and in most
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countries, quite frankly. so it's not so much the people were protest, have been cars in place on high, but because they are very poor now cannot afford their usual founder of living and can be tackled by governments by transferring money. specifically to the very people that are the most. okay. and just put a sort of all into context for us and inflation. obviously, the fact is that it is increasing in countries in latin america, economic growth expected to slow down or it has been slowing down up until this point. what does this mean for, for latin american economies going forward? so again, that's also level phenomena. we see growth slowing down at a global level. the same us we see inflation accelerating at a global level. so i would not say that this particular of latin america in fact because commodity prices are so high and many american countries are commodity exporters. they are actually better position to recover from,
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from the currency circus. and hi, commodity prices is likely to increase medium term growth in a lot of that. that's an american economist. so i was confused by saying that in the middle term, this to be relatively positive for growth. and more importantly that because central banks in america have been hiking, raise much more aggressively and much earlier than in the rest of the world. even though in that america we see quite a lot of translation right now. it may be the region that end, so controlling inflation much earlier than the rest of the world. ok, we'll leave it there. thank you so much. carlos, this is for joining us from zurich. thank you. i and inflation has sorts of triple digits in lebanon, the currency last, almost 90 percent. if it's value, that's more than 3 quarters of lebanon's population are now poor. and the lebanese government is running out of cash to buy wheat medicine and fuel level on economic meltdown is one of the world's worst. and 150 years,
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the government says it's in desperate need for financial help to get out of the crisis. it's finally reached a preliminary funding deal with the international monetary funds, but the full approval of the $3000000000.00 us dollar loan over 46 months comes with a caveats. the lebanese government has to implement a series of financial reforms. they include an audit of the central bank restructuring, the countries collapse, banking sectors, improving transparency mechanisms, and unifying multiple exchange rates to the spiraling lebanese pounds. now, if approved, the program would help unlock further. for an age, lebanese banks are estimated to have lost almost $69000000000.00 us dollars and have imposed informal capital controls. safer is deprived of access to their deposits are being offered checks worth a fraction of their savings. many customers have accused the banks of shifting their losses to depositors, and they've taken legal action to recover their money. then the reports from bay
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roots, more than $100000000000.00 remained stuck in lebanon's banks since 2019, when the financial system collapsed. depositors have been facing limits on withdrawals at unfavorable exchange rates. now, some banks are closing accounts of mainly british passport holders. after a u. k. court ordered a lebanese bank to give a depositor his money. depositors say they are offered a check for the balance, but they are worth less than 20 percent of their value. manager of the bank told me that i can take my check at the notary is and wander around and see who can accept or bankers check bank say they are short of cash and fear. if depositors continue winning legal challenges, they will have to declare bankruptcy. they say the answer is for the political authorities to pass
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a law that would regulate. ready the outflow of foreign currency banks have been accused of helping to politically connected transfer their money abroad. many of them are shareholders in lebanon's largest banks. critics call the financial system a ponzi scheme for decades, banks lent to the state that high interest rates, while successive governments largely plundered funds and piled up debts until capital inflows slowed and the economy collapsed. and experts believe much of the money is now gone. with people locked out of their savings as they struggle with high inflation and poverty. so there are many challenges in order to get the money back. we cannot just get it back by doing individual lawsuit. and also we have to see a restructuring of the banking sector and the public that and this is what's not happening . those in power have so far failed to reform a system that they long benefited from them to shift the losses to the people who
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withdraw their money at around 30 percent of its value. already depositors have lost billions of dollars. joining me now from a router cb, nobody is the chief economist and head of the economic part research analysis department at b plus a bank group. thank you so much for joining us on the program, sir. so for this deal to become final, lebanon has to implement a series of reforms. do you think these reforms are achievable, considering the state of the lebanese economy and what are the challenges going forward? and i, and that's very explicit. it statement about the actions that you've already the need to take for the agreement to be approved and become, find them by dia, my executive board at southern prior actions have to do with the banking system. the central bank of london and commercial buys, such as approving a strategy for structuring of the banking sector, modifying the banking secrecy, lo, unifying the exchange rates, the multiple exchange rates. i mean,
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i think capital control measures and i think a banking is or you can just lation. so these are all challenging, challenging points and measures. but really we do not have a choice if you want to get out of the crisis. i do not believe that is any other alternative than continuing with the i m have and and implemented forms according to this agreement with the i am. so now the responsibility is already fees to prove that they are serious in pursuing this agreement by implementing these a prior actions. diana did not put a table for the implementation, knowing that we are close to parliamentary elections on may 15th, we're getting close to that. and we should elections in october. so the argument
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actually, right, do you think the politicians will at least feel the pressure somewhat? because as you're saying time is not on the side of the lebanese and, and we do have these parliamentary elections in may. definitely not on the side of that have a nice people delivery of the economy or the private sector. additions have to feel the pressure given the living conditions in the countries, the contraction of the economy and the very vulcan population. so maybe right now it's not an idea of buying these reforms all together, but we can start with the thing that are already on track like the parliament enact thing, the budget for 2022 that they've already in parliament. the already have been completed for the government to start working on the nation and then forward it to parliament after the election. you are right under pressure
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of time and in terms of delivery. but that is, that is an opportunity there to start the process. how will the banks respond to this? because as you were pointing out just a few moments ago, some of the rules that the i m. s. had, have put forward or stated that needs to go ahead, including a central bank audit, reforming the secrecy long as you were pointing out, the evaluation of the countries major banks. these could be sticking points, and particularly for the banks themselves, will they, will the banks actually comply? well, the banks have been calling, i'm calling for a deal with the i am at the beginning of the crisis in october of 2019 and patient banks in lebanon. if basement was coming to agreement with authorities and urging to implement the banking sector and comply with the requirements of the prior action, including as you mention the external audit of the largest 14 banks in the country
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. it is in the best interest of the banking sector to facilitate as much as it can do for measures. and the banking sector has been calling since the fall of the crisis, putting capital control measures that have not been implemented. so definitely in the interest of the banking sector to proceed with all these reform for them not to be limited to the banking sector. right. is other thing that needs to be implemented afterwards, like very structured in the public sector fighting evasion. what i want to ask you about my final question, in fact, because you know, there is deep rooted corruption and financial mismanagement in lebanon. as we all know, this is going to be a major, a challenge to tackle. going ahead as a not how do you see that playing out? well, there is also a lot of skepticism in lebanon by the private sector, by the organization, by the ordinary lebanese,
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because we have been through international support and international conferences where they need to have that form in exchange for financial support and nothing much higher. so now, sponsibility is on the political class on the government, on the branch to demonstrate that they are serious in lifting that economy over current crisis to the port trinity that deals with the i have ok. and finally, let me ask you, i mean it's, it's really the lebanese people that have been feeling the brunt of this economic crisis for several years now. is this rescue plan going to bring more relief or more pain to them? that's a very good question. many people think that, you know, that perception is that the, the, i am, i mean a lot of pain, but we have been suffering for 2 and a half years already from multiple exchange rates from high inflation rates and shortages of the, for the be in the market, i'm sure some of the, for the i am,
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i agree with you already on, if demanding, if they are fully implemented, will be found by the lebanese. but for the medium, i'm not positive outcomes for, for the nice people and it's up to the government to communicate with people on the, on the importance of implementing the, the form and their outcome in the medium and long term. ok. thank you so much. no staple, but for speaking to us from beirut, thank your more than 346000000 people are going hungry across africa, but the situation is particularly a leak in the continents west. and as a whole region, that's where millions of people face the worst food crisis. in a decades, the u. n. has described the emergency as her renders and has warned resources to support the most vulnerable art. rock bottom, the world food program says the number of hungry people across west africa. this
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a hell has quadruple to 41000000 between 20192022. and n g o are calling on the international community to provide at least 4000000000 dollars sought by the u. n. for the region. international donors including the you have pledged almost $2000000000.00 to help ease hunger and this a hell and lay chad region. or part of the problem is linked to high food prices, which have increased by up to 30 percent over the past 5 years in west africa. they're expected to go much higher nutrition. reserves are already decreasing in this a hell. and the war in ukraine could cause a significant reduction in wheat stocks. 6 west african countries import at least 30 percent of the grain from russia and ukraine. from senegal, capital to car, i'm joined now by my do job. he's the regional representative of action against hunger organization for west and central africa. welcome to the program. i'm a dude yoke. so we're reporting about the food insecurity, right across the continent. but why is the situation particularly bad in west
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africa and the sahara region? we should say it out and we all, several of those that were some the situation in derision and on tori in science, we have climate shows which is creating a splost, you resources causing relation disbursement and added pressure on already limited resources. these combat the lago rental, which results into that for gas shuttle. sir origins inside are generated, easy to convince, and to really come 1st most of the time before being sold by religious cetera. it's all good to go. i don't like geez, i. in addition, we would say that an attache, derision, phases, mental images, each error. so given matching was just one more on the already headed murder into. busy sales and is watching this pressure on the population often leads to long gum
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and difficulties in assessing buzzing social services when they are already limited . which plays more. busy which place many people can say in millions of people and foot in it shall, insecurity every year. ok, let's break down some of the reasons that you gave and, and 1st look at the issue of food prices. so reported a problem. how much worse could the situation get because of the war in ukraine as we know, some west african countries in port, at least up to 50 percent of their wheat from both ukraine and russia? yes, when we should say it out of the situation is already more weighty critical because for the prices are already very high. and for some countries that involve their ways from reshowing. busy can yes, we already saw them to see an increase in the price of bread, and so we produce the recurring and crisis has come to shut relations or when you're not going in, when should say dollars. however, it should be not that
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a trend of price increase was up. so you can say that before the beginning of the union credits this, inflation, our trend at the global level households increasing food prices in decider. more important and look at the porters seen or countries traded relatively little ways you can on your shock except to some countries like marines, i, ya synagogue, inference and better. or we should say, a due process increase on the food process. ease may be also we can say these additional mental factors and ready to water, sasha, my am and speculation on serial. a major role training price increase. let me ask you about the response to the, to the sahara crisis, because it is one of the worst humanitarian crises,
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yet it's the least funded or one of the least funded. that is, why do you think that is we can say we all on the spot. denise, this is a sam regarding the mitchell crisis we have under war. but our amended lease. we moved out to san glen 1st. however, we are dealing with prior to zation of the ads for coming from denise, we can say that we should be in dire responses, plans are not funded and though that a worth, nothing to be funded are suffering from a lack of funding. the income increase. you can say the increase over price in loses the all star auto trader means that missouri adept our response, which infinite, unfortunately, will go more often when you are you talking about more long term solutions rather than emergency ones. what do you mean by re adapting the response that we should,
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we should do both the credit and science needs ball. we must respond to that modem needs. my 7 the last for animal so we should work really. busy population a, have their people try to sanctioning medic services. she was from an it is to have them copies image of her shots and i do to minute their image yet needs. okay, we'll leave it there. thank you so much mama, dude. you up for joining us. from the car, thank you for that's our show for this week. you can get in touch with us by tweeting me. i said in a g n to use the hashtag a j ctc. when you do, you can also drop us an email counting the cost that al jazeera dot net is our address. but there's more for you online at al jazeera dot com slash ctc. that'll take you straight to our page, which has individual reports, links on entire episodes for you to catch up on. so that's it for this edition of
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counting costs. i'm danny navigator from the whole team. thanks for joining us. the news on al jazeera is next lou. ready with
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wherever you go in the world, one airline goes to make it for you. exceptional katara always going places to go with the aftermath of russian air strikes, at least 7 people have been killed in levine as the war. new crane intensifies. meanwhile rushes president place down the effect of western sanctions, of course, on the central bank to help relieve pressure on the economy. ah, hello adrian. this is al jazeera, alive from doha, also coming up political changes to overhaul shoreline. cuz flailing economy.


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