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tv   Counting the Cost  Al Jazeera  June 25, 2022 1:30am-2:01am AST

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idea of soldier by accident, ah, israel's military also says the palestinian authority should hand over the bullet to kill touring and take part in a joint investigation. but the palestinians say they can't trust these railey military to conduct a transparent investigation of itself. law at aris memorial service, the palestinian prime minister said that instead these railways should hand over the rifle, but its military admits may have been you that you and human rights chief michelle bartlett, once israel to open a criminal investigation into serene arbor, atlas death and 24 senators wont present joe biden to get the us involved in its own investigation. bernard smith, outer sarah, west jerusalem, one person has been killed and dozens injured in ecuador capitol, quito on the 12th day of anti government protest. demonstrations have been taking place across the country with indigenous groups, demanding cuts of fuel prices, and price caps on food. clashes between protest isn't security forces have turned
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increasingly violent over the past few days. ah. look at the main stories now. in the united states, millions of women are expected to lose access to abortions. after the supreme court struck down the ruling making is a constitutional right. ah anti bush and demonstrators cheered the decision outside the course in washington. the conservative dominated court voted 6 to 3 in favor of overturning roe vs wade, which was passed almost 50 years ago. republican members of congress have held it as a momentous victory, huge demonstrations in support of abortion rights as well outside the court. and so we've seen protests in cities around the country. the ruling has been condemned by eating democrats, including president joe biden,
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to realization level extreme ideology and a tragic error by the supreme court. in my view, as the attorney general was made, clear women, most of rain free to travel safely to another state to seek care they need. my administration will defend that bed rock right. for any state or local official hire low drives interfere with the one is ex, exerciser basic growth to travel. i will do everything in my power to fight that deeply on american attack. and are the top stories today, a powerful aftershock? i say afghan is thought killing at least 5 more people. 3 days out of the country of the country's most destructive, earthquake, and 20 years. humanitarian aid is arriving, but it's hard to get essential supplies to remote places. at least 1100 people, including a 121 children were killed in wednesday's quake. and the governor of ukraine's
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eastern lands region says his forces will be withdrawing from the city of savari done yet. said he got die, said remaining positions have been smashed to pieces. so staying doesn't make sense . russian troops are now in control of most of the city in a close to surrounding its neighboring city of las a chance. after weeks of bombardment, those of the headlines this our counting the cost is the program coming out next. we'll see you tomorrow. own calling is preparing to march 25 years since britain handed it back to china. life was changed to a matic. critic safe. we do have been stripped away in china, is toys. it's good to won't hold. no, for the one country to systems, one's promise spot aging. the hong kong handle special cover on all jazeera ah, i,
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i hello, i'm setting obligated. this is counting the cost on al jazeera, your weekly look at the world of business and economics this week. central bank take decisive action and increase interest rates to try and bring soaring consumer prices under control. we ask what more needs to be done? also this week, we take a look at what's in store for the global aviation industry after it was plunged into a financial crisis during the pandemic. and this year is katara economic forum saw movers and shakers descends on doha top of the agenda. the global economic recovery, plus we count the cost of protecting hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses as rising sea levels threatened communities and the u. k. ah, the costs of living keep sliding higher and now central banks have sprung into
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action. the u. s. federal reserve, the bank of england and swiss national bank all increased their key interest rates, and the european central bank has indicated it will move in a similar direction in july targeting inflation as the central banks main goal. and it helps to maintain price stability, but it's not been working. we've seen protests around the world over the higher cost of food and services in the past week. a little and lation can be a good thing if everyone's salary rises at the same pace as prices, but they haven't been. so let's look at why inflation has been going up around the world recently. there are old prices which have slumped at the start of the pan demik, but demand has rocketed since the war and ukraine has effected this to brent crude had an 8 year high and of course, petrol is more expensive. the cost of everyday items has risen since 2020. many people had more disposable income to spend on household goods during locked downs.
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firms of struggle to keep up with demand. and let's not forget the us china trade war, which drove up terrorists. there are shipping firms which have been on busier because of the surge, and as a result, retailers have to pay more to get those items into the shops. that cost has been passed on to consumers. millions, quit the workforce or change jobs as a result of the pandemic and some sectors increased wages to attract new stuff. again, that's driven up prices. severe storms and droughts, hurt harvests around the world. the war and ukraine has seen its great harvest and exports affected. plus governments have been ending support to businesses impacted by the pandemic. subsequent tax rises have contributed to the cost of living squeeze felt by many will turning us from london is david coker who's a senior lecturer in finance at the university of westminster. welcome to al jazeera, so thanks so much for your time. so we were covering the some of the main drivers behind the rising costs of inflation and central banks, as we've been saying,
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have increased key interest rates to try and keep that inflation down somewhat more can central banks and governments do or during thank you so much for having me today, the central banks are really a tough spot. inflation globally is surging. it's not all supply side or as we're led to believe. and the only weavers they really have at least talking about the said, are the balance sheet as well as interest rates. those are the 2 broad leavers that the fed can can, can pull. and they're really in a rush position. because inflation surging, the rising increase in interest rates very sharply to try to get control of it. they ideally would like to do it without causing a recession. but their track record is very poor there. and we also have to keep in mind that the consumer is getting the message. we saw the consumer confidence in the states fall to a record low of this month to drop 14 percent in one month. and it's down 41
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percent from a year ago. so the consumers increasingly worried because of these hawkish messages and actually actions from the fed center or bank. so really all they can do is just bring on a recession, right? let's drill down into some of the reasons why inflation is so high and we were mentioning earlier on that a part of this can be as a result of the us china trade war. do you agree with that? how much of a driver is that issue? and if the u. s. actually removed terrorists on chinese goods, do you think that could help in some way or? no, no, i don't, i don't agree it's, it's totally, we'd like to come back to that, but we'll, i'll talk about this point, but i don't agree. it's totally because of the us china trade. we're no, not totally can be one of the reasons is or not. oh sure. it's a contributor, but it's difficult to quantify exactly what before terrorists were levied. chinese export definitely were a major, deflationary force that we enjoyed for, you know, 15 years perhaps. now removing the terrorists are definitely lower the cost to
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imports into the states. that's good, but we have to keep in mind and this is something the western media misses. sometimes the chinese economy has been restructuring very rapidly, and china is going to transition to what we call a high income country sometime in late 2023. in many ways, this puts china on a par with the u. s. and other western democracy. it's not the low income nation. it was perhaps 5 years ago, heavily reliant upon export. ok. and what about the u. k? i mean, you're speaking to us from london and, and as you know, of course, the bank of england increase their base rate for the 5th time in a row last week to 1.25 percent. but inflation has had another 40 year high and may reaching 9 point one percent. it's pretty astounding. how much higher do you think it could go? oh, i can't talk to detail about the, about the, the u. k. but i can look at the states. i've done a lot of research in that area. all right, if we look at the last period of high inflation america, one thing we have to understand is that inflation is sticky. and once it's
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established, it's tough to get rid of. so inflation in the states at a high or low 14.6 percent march $980.00. the fed started sharply increase in interest rates to get ahead of it to try to bring it down. they brought interest rates up to 19 point one percent by june, 1981. and in spite of these higher interest rates, inflation didn't drop down below 3 percent until june. 1983 are roughly 3 years from the peak of inflation. so my feeling is we're going to have to see interest rates rise above inflation, not for a long time, but rise above it. and we likely we'll see rates approach inflation. at some point . do you think that the mortgage rate raises in the us? it's something to be concerned about. so why? oh, i okay. i should reveal the saying, i'm active property, other property business. i do have assets in states as well as the u. k. all right . i think it's a. yeah, i think it's a good thing. what's happening both in the u. s. u. k,
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washing sharp increases in house prices. totally stunning. and just for some perspective in america, i took a look at the median house price and the median wage. if, if we express it in racial form, we can learn a lot about the scale of the bubble. there are some context in queue for 2021. the medium house price divided by the median wage. that ratio was 160 per cent houses really, really wildly over value compared to wages for context. if you look at q $12006.00, that same ratio was a 141 percent. and we all know what happened in 2007, a huge property collapse. it's coming again, doreen of the markets or is slowing down. j. p. morgan announced plans to lay off a reassign, about a 1000 staff and their mortgage business. we seen other mortgage lenders doing the same. they're doing this in response to their customer demand. it's it's collapsing . we're also seen some other signs. if we look at the number of properties listed
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for sale, it's growing. and keep in mind that just 3 to 6 months ago, the market was so red hot, a large number of properties were sold without even being listed. these are significant changes. i. i welcome them because they can take some froth off the market, bring homes down to a point where the average american, or even the average of british worker could, could afford the right. now it's very tough. if you can just give me your outlook of sort of the best and worst case scenario for the u. s. in europe going forward. oh boy. well, i'm american. so naturally optimistic a with optimistic person. i'll just say the best cases, a short, sharp recession of the harder and deeper in the shorter the best recessions eliminate excess capacity recessions, as we just discussed, a reduced demand. and all this would be welcome in this economy. now the worst case, and i really hope we don't see this is stagflation. now,
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stagflation or definition is above average unemployment, in a macro environment of above average inflation. stagflation is much, much worse than a, of even the most harsh recession. we haven't seen stagflation in the u. s. since mid 7. these 2 are early eighties. and during that time, the misery index. and again, this is def, i wrote an article about this. it's defined as the sum of unemployment and inflation sort. well, it's going to happen to gen dory, because we're gonna start to see unemployment picked up. inflations already fairly high. the misery index will soon be rising. alright, i did want to end on a positive note with you, but i thought exactly who we are going to have to leave it there. we run out of time david coker, we really appreciate your time. thank you. so much taker, thanks, the gender and the cats are economic for unter place and our hi this week major business leaders and heads of state met to discuss a road map to a global economic recovery. one of the topics was the rising cost of energy. asthma
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had better, has more a deal that's taken years to finalize. gotta energy is teaming up with giant gas companies to expand its production of liquefied natural gas, or l n g. that drive comes at a crucial moment for europe as it moves towards cutting natural gas imports from russia. and it's katara that is most likely to meet europe's gas demands. an opportunity that cement the tiny gulf nations role as a global energy player. if you look at what you are doing and got that, we started in 2017 to embark on the largest ellen g expansion in the world. and we're going to be increasing off reduction from 707126. a 1000000 tons per annum by 2026, which will help greatly the requirement of gas and underwood, rushes invasion of ukraine has shaken, and as you markers,
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prices are rising and energy ex waters are capitalizing on growing demands. namibia has recently announced major oil discoveries that will double the countries did it be by 2040. but its minutes of energy remains confident. the new finds wont stop investments in renewables, africa, the continental bro. we only contribute less than 2 percent of a mission. in any case and for an amoeba, we are now actually in a very good position. here we are leveraging our resources, which is fossil for resources. and as the same time, we're going to produce good hydrogen that can actually help the global dig up on ice. here in doha leaders, ceos and economists discussed ways to combat poverty, reduce carbon emissions, and maintain economic growth of the global economic outlook seem somber. inflation
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is rising, prompting governments to increase interest rates of the path to achieving any soft landing may be longer than initially thought. a slowdown is difficult because he lose a job or slow down is difficult because her business has less revenues or you have less orders or your less activity have less customers. if at the same time of having less it revenues for your company, your costs are authorizing that has implications for unemployment. that has implications for a government revenues. the ability for governments to, to then reinvest back into the economies. food prices are also continuing to rise. hundreds of millions of people could find themselves unable to pay for staples such as bread, meat and vegetables. 2022 is the year many hoped would end the fall off of the cove in 19 pandemic, and set in motion a global economic recovery. then came the warring ukraine,
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which has led to an increase in energy prices and a shortage of grain supplies. all these factors along with high inflation, unlikely to store economic growth, and may even lead to a prolonged re session pattern. marbella for al jazeera county and the head of global ation body. i says he's confident the industry will return to profitability in 2023. be global. pandemic plunge the global ation industry into what's worst financial crisis in its history. losses are estimated at more than $200000000000.00 over 2 years. during that time, the air transport action group reports that more than 2000000 jobs were touch. and now there's a scramble to hire tens of thousands of employees. but security screenings are causing delays, shortages have let to flight cancellations, especially in europe, despite the high numbers of people wanting to travel. and as we mentioned earlier, the war in ukraine has seen fuel prices double leading to
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a roughly 30 percent hike in flight prices. common and all of the of the vice president of i saw for the middle east on north africa. he thinks there are many reasons to be hopeful. just looking at how well the industry performed this year. the thought of this year, even with a hiccup like the macro man last year. the resilience of the airline and how nimble they had, just each airline adjusts its capacity and what it needs. you can see the numbers just grow month over month looking at their plans down the road even with like the rising price of oil and stuff like that. we're still looking very optimistic. yes, airlines are smart enough to not put all its capacity back into the market so, so there's still 2017 percent of that capacity not being used. and of course that reduces a lot of the operational costs or the fixed costs are in some cases. so, so they are managing their resources more carefully achieving the profit,
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but don't forget, this is their achieving a problem that does not mean their profitable achieving profit, but they have 2 years of losses to, to, to recap, i think most of the analysts specifically in this region to their manpower acquirements and their resources very carefully and accurately from what i can see . and i think the demonstration of how they restart that again. and they restarted the bank at a faster rate than anybody expected. and yet without the problems that we're facing and europe and new us cuts our air, we see a credit back and told us his outlook is positive. i am settling optimistic that that things to continue for the foreseeable future. i also don't think the price will stay at this level for enter and there's a shortage of capacity because badlands cannot fly all the fans
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just to show that just men power pilots. fortunately, that is not the case with us. we also spoke toward brady. he's the president down chief executive of twist sport, the global evaluation services company. he talks us through the magnitude of some of the tests that the industry has faced. government acted unilaterally, and this very difficult had damage. and they didn't coordinate or consult with the asian industry, whether it be i also i k o. so they effectively to asian industry and then to expect the industry to literally restart from a very low level to factor effect re near to 1000. 19 levels is a very big challenge for everyone with a long and well populated coastline. the u. k. is that serious risk from climate change flooding and storm damage could make many areas uninhabitable. by 2015, the government is planning to spend $7000000000.00 to protect the coast. but
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experts say hard decisions are needed about which areas are saved and which are surrendered to the c journal hall reports from sidmouth and devon. this is sid, my son, the devon coast. a georgian town that lost a 100 meters of shoreline in a century. a rate that's now close to double in places on its east beach. the cliffs have been crumbling for years where once there was climate denial, there is now an unavoidable reality. as we watched another section fell into the sea, a certain climate change now has to change people's perception in the last couple years. i think there's a recognition that there's a tremendous danger from climate change. coastal defense is already in place, protect the towns proven out, but they've affected the natural title drift, making things worse for the nearby cliffs. down here at the water line,
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you can clearly see the forces of nature weighing on this landscape down one side. this river runoff made heavier by more frequent storm activity, up above the cliffs, heavy rainfall that saturate the soil from below the waves lapping all the way pretty much up to the base of the cliffs, their own beach protections washed away. it's a 3 pronged assault, making this world heritage site and others like it all the way up and down the jurassic coast, vulnerable, fragile, prone to collapse. the problem is people live up here, some in large houses with majestic c views and fast receding from lawns. it is worrying, but i assume with the my age there's not going to be a physical problem to myself. but the further down the road you get oversleep is the worry will get larger. and there are gardens that are literally falling into the sea down. absolutely. and at some stage they've got to do something to protect
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the town. a 2020 report by the committee on climate change found that 1200000 homes in the u. k are at high risk of flooding, and a 100000 more will succumb to coastal erosion in decades to come. there's increased funding for protection but not everywhere can receive it. and that means hard choices lie ahead. basically telling those people who live there. but you will not be will no longer be able to live here in the next 203040 years, you'll have to abandon your house because we can no longer afford to protect you. now, those are really, really tough decisions. and they, they, those sorts of decisions will, will increasingly be necessary in the future. the homeowners overlooking east beach, a clinging on her. now there are plans being worked out by the local council for a protective barrier to be placed in the c. it's a race to hold back the rising tide. jonah haul al jazeera sidmouth
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joining us from london, a 20th sermons, he has the managing director of climate and sustainability at the global insurance giant marsh mclennan. she's also a member of the independent adoption committee that advises the u. k. government on climate risks. welcome to al jazeera talk us through the current flood risk in the u. k. and what impact that could have? hello, thank you very much for inviting me. flooding is the largest climate risk that the you case pay thing and we see that already in terms of the impact on community and businesses. but going forward these trends i expected to increase and that extend to flooding from coach thought flood from river floods, but also rain rainfall event. it's been not yet. and so what are the socio economic rocking ramifications of such flooding?
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well, let right is already the most costly risks today, and there are estimates from the government that they can make damage to business side will actually need $1000000000.00 pay. yeah, by 2050. so that gives us a change. but there are other cation and, and our research here at mass. mclennan also looked at where, for example, infrastructure is located and where assets are being built. and this is a really important story because we see that actually quite a large number of new homes in the, in the u. k. are it built in area threatened by flooding, particularly low income households, which are then disproportionate the, at risk. okay, here's the thing, i mean, how would you, what would your advice be on how to get countries to start to rethink their approach to flood risk and what strategies do they need to put in place?
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well, i mean, 1st of all, i think we really need to be up front and say climate change is a threat. multiply and it will amplify existing. or you can look at supply chain transport, board type, pick security, all be all going to be impacted by the blood. so we really need to get that message out the i j not just question of getting your feet wet because your can be impacted by blood without being direct. he physically flooded. okay. so that opens up also a lot of oppertunity to then work to trust those supply chains. work across communities in terms of enhancing flap protection and changing particularly production processes and ultimately often moving away from out of. 7 way, burton, which country, i mean,
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is it possible to say what country is the best prepared or, and also who is the worst prepared at this point. while our research says that all major industrial country actually has a significant blacklist problem. but also starting to invest in breast brazilian am but it's, it's really important that what we're trying to do is basically playing almost catch shop because i'm, when we look at climate change, i mean, we already the same climate change. the we're living already with climate and we, we know that even with emissions reduction where it can, you bring to degree warming scenario. i am our estimates so that the percentage of people who are paid to work with are expected to double from today's level. so that gives you a problem and then yeah, it's down to 2 countries to take advance action and to manage that well once the
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government or country rather the seems to have made some progress on this. and correct me if i'm wrong, here is the netherlands because expensive. billions of euro's every year maintaining an upgrading its defenses. can other countries learn from the netherlands model like them all these like the u. k, like other island nations who are where most at risk was certain that there is a lot that we can learn at the netherland are because of their, their exposure it's, it's a line country where the codes like they have made flat bread management part of their national strategy for a long time. but the key question is, you know, at what point are we taking these measures and eat and you mentioned about the nation. the key point there is to increase spec passages to, to act and to, and take this action now or right. we will leave it there. we thank you very much
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when you sermon ski for joining us, one to and that's where so for this week you can get in touch with us by treating me are dead in a g and ease the hashtag a j c t c. when you do so, you can also drop us an email counting the cost that al jazeera dot net is our address. but there's more for you online at al jazeera dot com slash c t c. and that'll take you straight to our page, which has individual reports, links on entire episodes for you to catch up on it for this edition of counts in a cost i'm getting obligated from the whole team. thanks for joining us. the news on al jazeera hatta airways official airline of the journey. ah, ah ah
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