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tv   Counting the Cost  Al Jazeera  June 25, 2022 12:30pm-1:01pm AST

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now they are painted in vivid colors. the initiative is trying to revive iraq's artistic history by highlighting portraits of renowned iraqi figures. this one here depicts the late poet mother for noah, who was revolutionary poems in his play of the many across the arab warrant. a mutilate, this takes was done long hours to complete. from day to night was dan wants to complete 20 murals and she hopes the initiative will is spread to other provinces. so like baghdad that wants to stood as a mini ret of that up culture. they'll also re capture some of their last a prime with abdougla had algebra, though that ah, the watching out there with me still robbed in doha reminder of all top stories
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and tables and demonstrators have been celebrating in the united states out to the supreme court. struck down a landmark ruling that allowed the procedure that dozens of states all moving to ban or restrict abortion. 8 the president has promised to support women's acts as to abortion. other ways including protecting their right to travel to other states . joe biden urged voters to make their voices heard in november's midterm elections . make no mistake. this decision is a combination of a deliberate effort over decades of shed balance of our law. it's a realization of an extreme ideology in a tragic error by the supreme court. in my view, the coroner's done what is never done before. expressly take away a constitution, right? it is so fundamental to so many americans, lardy,
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been recognized. police noise say they're not treating as shooting on side. the gay nights have been also as an act of terrorism. 2 people were killed in the attack and more than 14 injured please. of arrested a 42 year old suspect moroccan authorities say 18 migrants have been killed while storming the border. separating the spanish enclave of malea from morocco. spain said about 130 people succeeded in breaching the face. a powerful aftershock has killed at least 5 more people in the remote area of of gun is down. that was hit by devastating earthquake on wednesday. at least 1100 people have been confirmed dead people. in fact ticker province are desperate for food, shelter, and clean drinking water. as humanitarian aid is slow to reach the region, the governor of ukraine's east and the hands region says his forces are to withdraw from the city of several denounced rough russian troops now in control of most of
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the city and a close to surrounding the neighbouring area. of the sea chance, the mirror of cat eyes in cairo to meet with egyptian present a bill for the unceasing and shake to mean been hammered. al tanny's 1st visit since he took office is also his 1st since egypt, saudi arabia and the u. a as well. as bahrain lifted the blockade on katara that lasted for yes, that was the headlines see of it by. ready too often of canister as portrayed through the prism of war. but there were many of van astound thanks to the brave individuals who risk their lives to protect it from destruction . an extraordinary film archives span for decades reveals the forgotten truth of the country's modern history. the forbidden real part one, the birth of afghan cinema on just either i lose
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hello, i'm petty and obligate. this is counting the cost on al jazeera, your weekly look at the world of business and economics this week. central banks take decisive action and increase interest rates. to try and bring store and consumer prices under control. we ask, what more needs to be done? also this week, we take a look at what's in store for the global ag ation industry after it was plunged into a financial crisis during the pandemic. and this year is tough or you can make for him, saw movers and shakers descend on doha top of the agenda, the global economic recovery. plus we count the cost of protecting hundreds of thousands of loans on businesses as rising sea level threaten communities in the u . k ah,
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the cost of living keep sliding higher and now central banks have sprung into action. the u. s. federal reserve, the bank of england and swiss national bank all increase their key interest rates and the european central bank has indicated it will move in a similar direction in july targeting inflation as a central banks main goal. and it helps to maintain price stability, but it's not been working. we've seen protests around the world over the higher cost of food services in the past week. a little inflation can be a good thing if everyone salary rises at the same pace as prices. but they haven't been so let's look at why inflation has been going up around the world recently. they're all prices which have slumped at the start of the pan demik, but demand has rocketed since the war and ukraine has effected this to be crude. had an 8 year high and of course, petrol is more expensive. the cost of everyday items has risen since 2020. many
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people had more disposable income to spend on household goods during locked downs. firms of struggle to keep up with demand. and let's not forget the us china trade war, which drove up tariffs. there are shipping firms which have been on busier because of the surge. and as a result, retailers have to pay more to get those items into the shops. that cost has been passed on to consumers. millions, quit the workforce or change jobs as a result of the pandemic. and some sectors increased wages to attract new stuff. again, that's driven up prices. severe storms and droughts, hurt harvests around the world. the war in ukraine has seen its great harvest and exports affected. plus governments have been ending support to businesses impacted by the pandemic. subsequent tax rises have contributed to the cost of living squeeze felt by many will turning us from london is david coker who's a senior lecturer and finance at the university of westminster. welcome to al
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jazeera, so thanks so much for your time. so we were covering the some of the main drivers behind the rising costs of inflation and central banks, as we've been saying, have increased key interest rates to try and keep that inflation down somewhat more can central banks and governments do are during thank you so much for having me today, the central banks are really in a tough spot. inflation globally is surging. it's not all supply side or as we're led to believe. and the only weavers they really have at least talking about the said, are the balance sheet as well as interest rates. those are the 2 broad leavers that the fed can can, can pull. and they're really in a rush position. because inflation surging, the rising, increasing interest rates very sharply to try to get control of it. they ideally would like to do it without causing a recession. but their track record is very poor there. and we also have to keep in mind that the consumer is getting the message. we saw the consumer confidence in
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the states fall to a record low of this month to drop 14 percent in one month. and it's down 41 percent from a year ago. so the consumer is increasingly worried because of these hawkish messages and actually actions from the fed center or bank. so really all they can do is just bring on a recession, right. let's drill down into some of the, the reasons why inflation is so high and we were mentioning earlier on that a part of this can be as a result of the us china trade war. do you agree with that? how much of a driver is that issue? and if the u. s. actually removed terrorists on chinese goods, do you think that could help in some way or? no, no, i don't. i don't agree it's, it's totally, we'd like to come back to that, but we'll, i'll talk about this point, but i don't agree. it's totally because of the us china trade. we're no, not totally can be one of the reasons is or not. oh sure. it's a contributor, but it's difficult to quantify exactly what before terrorists were levied. chinese
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export definitely were a major, deflationary force that we enjoyed for, you know, 15 years perhaps. now removing the terrorists are definitely lower the cost to imports into the states. that's good, but we have to keep in mind and this is something the western media misses. sometimes the chinese economy has been restructuring very rapidly, and china is going to transition to what we call a high income country sometime in late 2023. in many ways, this puts china on a par with the u. s. and other western democracy. it's not the low income nation. it was perhaps 5 years ago, heavily reliant upon export. ok. and what about the u. k? i mean, you're speaking to us from london, and as you know, of course, the bank of england increase their base rate for the 5th time in a row last week to 1.25 percent. but inflation has had another 40 year high and may reaching 9 point one percent. it's pretty astounding. how much higher do you think it could go? oh, i can't talk detail about the, about the, the u. k. but i can look at the states. i've done
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a lot of research in that area. all right, if we look at the last period of high inflation america, one thing we have to understand is that inflation is sticky. and once it's established, it's tough to get rid of. so inflation in the states at a high or low 14.6 percent march $980.00. the fed started sharply increase and interest rates to get ahead of it to try to bring it down. they brought interest rates up to 19 point one percent by june, 1981. and in spite of these higher interest rates, inflation didn't drop down below 3 percent until june. 1983 are roughly 3 years from the peak of inflation. so my feeling is we're going to see interest rates rise above inflation, not for a long time, but rise above it. and we like, we will see rates approach inflation. at some point. do you think that the mortgage rate raises in the u. s. is something to be concerned about. so why? oh, i okay. i should reveal this i, i'm active property,
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other property business. i do have assets in the states as well as the u. k. all right. i think it's a. yeah, i think it's a good thing. what's happening both in the u. s. and you can wishing? sharpening chris's in house prices totally stunning. and just for some perspective in america, i took a look at the median house price and the median wage it. if we express it in racial form, we can learn a lot about the scale of the bubble. there's some context in queue for 2021. the medium house price divided by the median wage. that ratio was a 160 per cent houses really, really wildly over value compared to wages for context. if you look at q $12006.00, that same ratio was a 141 percent. and we all know what happened in 2007, a huge property collapse. it's coming again, doreen of the markets already slowing down. j. p. morgan announced plans to lay off or reassign about a 1000 staff and their mortgage business. we seen other mortgage lenders doing the
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same. they're doing this in response to their customer demand. it's it's collapsing . we're also seen some other signs. if we look at the number of properties listed for sale, it's growing. and keep in mind that just 3 to 6 months ago, the market was so red hot, a large number of properties were sold without even being listed. these are significant changes. i. i welcome them because they can take some froth off the market, bring homes down to a point where the average american, or even the average of british worker could, could afford the right. now it's very tough. if you can just give me your outlook or sort of the best and worst case scenario for the u. s. in europe going forward. oh, boy, on american. so naturally optimistic a with optimistic i'll just say the best case is a short, sharp recession of the harder and deeper and the shorter the best recessions eliminate excess capacity recessions, as we just discussed, a reduced demand. and all this would be welcome in this economy. now the worst case,
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and i really hope we don't see this is stagflation. now, stagflation, a definition is above average unemployment, in a macro environment of above average inflation. stagflation is much, much worse than a, even the most harsh recession. we haven't seen stagflation in the u. s since mid 7, these 2 are early eighties, and during that time the misery index. and again, this is def, i wrote an article, but it's defined as the sum of unemployment and inflation sort. well, it's going to happen to gender e, cause we're going to start to see unemployment tipped up. inflation is already fairly high. the misery index will soon be rising. alright, i did want to end on a positive note with you, but i thought actually who were going to have to leave it there we run out of time . they would coker we really appreciate your time. thank you. so much taker, thanks a gender in the cat. our economic forum took place and our hi, this week major business leaders and heads of state met to discuss a road map to
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a global economic recovery. one of the topics was the rising cost of energy as from alberta has more a deal that's taken years to finalize. gotta energy is teaming up with giant gas companies to expand its production of liquefied natural gas, or l n g. that drive comes at a crucial moment for europe as it moves towards cutting natural gas imports from russia. and it's katara that is most likely to meet europe's gas demands. an opportunity that cement the tiny gulf nation's role as a global energy player. if you look at what you are doing and i thought we started in 2017 to embark on on the largest ellen g expansion in the world. and we're going to be increasing our production from 707-1268 1000000 tons for and by 2026, which will help greatly,
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the requirement of gas and underworld rushes invasion of ukraine has shaken. and as you markers, prices are rising and energy ex waters are capitalizing on growing demands. namibia has recently announced major oil discoveries that will double the countries did it be by 2040. but it's minutes of energy remains confident. the new fines won't stop investments in renewables, africa, the continental bro. we only contribute less than 2 percent of a mission. in any case and for an amoeba, we are now as in a very good position. here we are leveraging our resources, which is possible for resources. and as the same time we're going to produce hydrogen that can actually help the global vehicle. and i here in doha leaders, ceos and economists discussed ways to combat poverty,
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reduce carbon emissions, and maintain economic growth of the global economic outlook seems somber. inflation is rising, prompting governments to increase interest rates are the path to achieving any soft landing may be longer than initially thought. a slowdown is difficult because you lose a job or slow down is difficult because your business has less revenues or you have less orders or your less activity have less customers. if at the same time of having less air revenues for your company, your costs are authorizing that has implications for unemployment. that has implications for our government revenues. the ability for governments to, to then reinvest back into the economies. food prices are also continuing to rise. hundreds of millions of people could find themselves unable to pay for staples such as bread, meat and vegetables. 2022 is the year many hoped would end the fall off of the
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coven 19 pandemic. and that emotion a global economic recovery. then came the warning ukraine, which has led to an increase in energy prices and a shortage of grand supplies. all these factors along with high inflation, unlikely to store the konami growth and be even lead to a prolonged recession. hash marbella for al jazeera, counting the call, the head of global ation body. i ta says he's confident the industry will return to profitability in 2023. be global. pandemic plunge the global ation industry into its worst financial crisis in its history. losses are estimated at more than $200000000000.00 over 2 years. during that time, the air transport action group reports that more than 2000000 jobs were touch. and now there's a scramble to hire tens of thousands of employees. but security screenings are causing delays, shortages have left to flight cancellations, especially in europe,
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despite the high numbers of people wanting to travel. and as we mentioned earlier, the war in ukraine has seen fuel prices double leading to a roughly 30 percent hike in flight prices. common and all of the in the vice president of the us off for the middle east on north africa. he thinks there are many reasons to be hopeful. just looking at how well the industry performed this year. the thought of this year, even with a hiccup like the macro man last year. the resilience of the airline, how nimble they had, just each airline adjusts its capacity and what it needs. you can see the numbers just grow month over month looking at their plans down the road even with like the rising price of oil and stuff like that. we're still looking very optimistic. yes, airlines are smart enough to not put all its capacity back into the market so, so there's still 2017 percent of that capacity not being used. and of course are
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reduces a lot of the operational costs or the fixed costs in some cases. so, so they are managing their resources more carefully achieving the profit, but don't forget, this is their achieving a profit that does not mean their profitable achieving profit, but they have 2 years of losses to, to, to recap, i think most of the airline specifically in this region calculated their manpower acquirements and their resources very carefully and accurately from what i can see . and i think the demonstration of how they restart that again. and they restarted the bank at a faster rate than anybody expected. and yet without the problems that we're facing and europe and new us cuts our air, we see a credit back and told us his outlook is positive. i am settling optimistic that that things will continue for the foreseeable future. i also don't think the price will stay at this level for enter and there's
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a shortage of capacity because badlands cannot fly. all the fans is to show that just men power pilots. fortunately, that is not the case with us. we also spoke toward brady. he's the president down chief executive of twist sport, the global evaluation services company. and he talks us through the magnitude of some of the tests that the industry has faced. government acted unilaterally in this very difficult damage. and they didn't coordinate or consult with the asian industry, whether the i also i k o. so they affect from the to jason industry. and then to expect the industry to literally restart from a very low level to affect re near 2019 levels is a very big challenge for everyone with a long and well populated coastline. the u. k. is that serious risk from climate
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change, flooding and storm damage could make many areas uninhabitable by 2015, the government is planning to spend $7000000000.00 to protect the coast. but experts say hard decisions are needed about which areas are saved and which are surrendered to the c journal hall reports from sidmouth in devon. this is sidmouth on the devon coast, a georgia town that lost a 100 meters of shoreline in a century, a rate that's now close to double in places on its east beach. the cliffs have been crumbling for years where once there was climate denial, there is now an unavoidable reality. as we watched another section fell into the sea, a certain the climate change now has changed people's perception. in the last couple years. i think the recognition that there's a tremendous danger from climate change coastal defense is already in place,
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protect the towns problem out, but they've affected the natural title drift, making things worse for the nearby cliffs. down here at the water line, you can clearly see the forces of nature weighing on this landscape down one side. this river runoff made heavier by more frequent storm activity, up above the cliffs, heavy rainfall that saturated the soil from below the waves lapping. although i pretty much up to the base of the cliffs, their own beach protections washed away. it's a 3 pronged assault making this world heritage site and others like it all the way up and down the drastic coast. vulnerable, fragile, prone to collapse. the problem is people live up here, some in large houses with majestic c views and fast receding from lawns. it is worrying, but i assume with the my age is not going to be a physical problem to myself. but the further down the road you get over asleep is
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the worry will get larger. and there are gardens that are literally falling into the sea down. absolutely. and at some stage they've got to do something to protect the town. a 2020 report by the committee on climate change found that 1200000 homes in the u. k are at high risk of flooding, and a 100000 more will succumb to coastal erosion in decades to come. there's increased funding for protection, but not everywhere can receive it. and that means hard choices lie ahead. basically telling those people who lives there, but you will not be will no longer be able to live here in the next 203040 years, you'll have to abandon your house because we can no longer afford to, to protect you. now those are really, really tough. decisions and they, they, those sorts of decisions will, will increasingly be necessary in the future. the homeowners overlooking east beach, a, clinging on for now. there are plans being worked out by the local council for
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a protective barrier to be placed in the c. it's a race to hold back the rising tide. jonah haul al jazeera sidmouth. turning out from london a 20th sermon, see who's the managing director of climate and sustainability at the global insurance, giant marsh mclennan. she's also a member of the independent adoption committee that advises the u. k. government on climate risks. welcome to al jazeera talk us through the current flood risk and the u. k. and what impact that could have. hello, thank you very much for inviting me. planning is the largest climate risk that the you case pay thing and we see that already in terms of the impact on community and businesses. but going forward these trends i expected to increase and that extend to flooding from coach thought flood from river floods, but also rain rainfall event. it's been not yet. and so what are the
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socio economic rocking ramifications of such flooding? well, let right is already the most costly risks today, and there are estimates from the government, but the can damage to business side will actually need $1000000000.00 a year by 2050. that gives us a change. but there are other cation and, and our research here at mass. mclennan also looked at where, for example, infrastructure is located and where assets are being built. and this is a really important story because we see that actually quite a large number of new homes in the, in the u. k. are built in area threatened by flooding, particularly low income households, which are then disproportionate the, at risk. okay, here's the thing, i mean, how would you,
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what would your advice be on how to get countries to start to rethink their approach to flood risk and what strategies do they need to put in place? well, i mean, 1st of all, i think we really need to be up front and say, climate change is a threat, multiply and it will amplify existing or better. if you look at supply chain transport board type, pick security, all be all going to be impacted by a lot. so we really need to get that message out that i do not just the question of getting your feet wet because you can be impacted lapse without b direct. he physically flooded. okay. so that the opens up also a lot of the unity to then work to trust those supply chains. work across communities in terms of enhancing flap protection and changing particularly production processes and ultimately often moving away from out of
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palms way. burton, which country, i mean, is it possible to say what country is the best prepared or, and also who is the worst prepared at this point? while our research says that all major industrial country actually has a significant blacklist problem. but also starting to invest in breast brazilian, but it's, it's really important that what we're trying to do is basically playing almost catch shop because i'm, when we look at climate change, i mean, we already the same climate change. the we're living already with climate. and we, we know that even with emissions reduction where it can you bring to degree warming scenario. i am our estimates so that the percentages people who are paid to flood risk are expected to double from today's level. so that gives you
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a problem. and then yeah, it's down to 2 countries to take advance action and to manage that well, once the government or country rather the seems to have made some progress on this . and correct me if i'm wrong, here is the netherlands because it's spent billions of euros every year, maintaining and upgrading its defenses. can other countries learn from the netherlands model like them all these like the u. k, like other island nations who are where most at risk was certain that there is a lot that we can learn at the netherland are because of their, their exposure it's, it's a new line country where the coastline they have made flat bread management part of their national strategy for a long time. the key question is, you know, at what point are we taking these measures and, and you mentioned about the nation. the key point there is to increase back to
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passages to, to act and to, and take this action now or right. we will leave it there. we thank you very much when you're sermon ski for joining us, one to and that's for so for this wish you can get in touch with us by treating me . i debbie in a g and 0. the hashtag a j c t c. when you do so, you can also drop us an email counting the cost that al jazeera dot net is our address. but there's more for you online at al jazeera dot com slash c t c. and that'll take you straight to our page, which has individual reports, links on entire episodes for you to catch up on it for this edition of counting the cost, i'm dead in obligation from the whole team. thanks for joining us. the news on al jazeera is next how and why did soon become so obsessed with this law, we were giving them a tool to hold the corrupt individuals in human rights abusers accountable. they're gonna rip this deal apart if they take the white house of 2025. what is the world
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