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tv   Inside Story  Al Jazeera  July 26, 2022 2:30pm-3:01pm AST

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that is also very important to war and psychological aspect with the children to help him to get out from that the images of the war and find a hub to place ship jenko is retired now, but was voted the best footballer in the world in 2004, he paid for chelsea. ac milan as well as captaining and then coaching, ukraine's national team. he knows better the most the benefits of physical activity plan running around you know, and singing narr planned the different games. oh, is kind of do relief. just tried to, you know, for the game forgot about dev within just play a smile. oh, the worn ukraine has no doubt left a mark on these children and many others. but schools like this a helping them recover, provide education, and maintain that mental well being to ensure they have a bright future. ha, ha,
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ha ha, they've stokes out his era. ah, it's good to have you with us. hello, adrian for the get a hearing. so how the headlines on al jazeera, you members have reached the deal on making emergency gas cuts this winter. europe is facing an energy crisis. as the rush owned from gas prom reduces supply from the board stream. one pipeline to 20 percent capacity out a series of de la al shami has more from brussels. the you aims to a store about 45000000000 cubes and cubic meters of gas for this next winter. and at the same time that he has also given a exemptions to a member states who are not part of the european gas network. and indeed the at that point, they will not have to enforce the amandito gaskets if it has to come to it. so the u a has been able to kind of a come to midway between the countries that saw it as you know,
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and not really possible to enforce that this kind of mandate he got at the same time been able to secure what it says it needs for the next winter, protests have been held outside man mars embassy in bangkok to condemn the execution of for pro democracy activists. all folder accused of helping a civilian resistance movement that was for the military since last year's crew. the execution at the executions. while the report widespread condemnation o the condemned ye action by the hunter to execute the 4 activities, we feel that this is a crime against humanity. ah, i believe to foreign ministers when we meet in the non pent. on the 3rd of august, we'll look into this is really forces of rated the palestinian village of cutaway bonnie hassan and the occupied west bank. demolishing the homes of 2 palestinians had been charged with killing a guard in april. at the illegal is really settlement of arielle schools. a
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reopened have re open its royal anchor after the government said that it would provide fuel so the children to get to class. they were shot daily a month ago because of widespread shortage is caused by the worst economic crisis in decades. 5 protests as have been killed in demonstrations of the un peacekeeping base in the democratic republic of congo. they say that peacekeepers have not protected them from violence in the region and want them to leave others, the headlights that he's continues for you here on our 0 after today's inside story . next. ah, hunger is prime minister victor. all van says sanctions on russia have failed, but you crate insisted can win the war as its force is appeared to be making some
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gains in the east. willie, you maintain its top stands and risk winter gas shortages. this is inside stored. ah hello, welcome to the program. i'm burnett's, congress prime minister says sanctions against russia and not working victor or vance as a new strategy is needed. one that focuses on peace talks and negotiations in a speech in romania or been reiterated his country, which is a nato member, will stay out of the war in neighboring ukraine. hunger is economy relies heavily on russian gas, and the government in budapest doesn't want to support embargoes on russian energy imports or ban says since russia want security guarantees. talks should be held
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between washington and moscow. not keith. we started off to check on medical appoint job as a new strategy as needed, which would focus on not winning the war, but instead on piece talks and drafting a good piece proposal. the european union is taxed now is not to stand on the side of the russians or on the side of ukrainian, but the stand between russia and ukraine. this should be the essence of a new strategy. this is how the situation is. we are sitting in a car that a puncture and all 4 tires is absolutely clear that the war cannot be won in this way. ukraine will never win the war against russia with american training personnel and weapons, quite simply because the russian army has a symmetrical dominant. the 2nd fact that we have to face up to is that the sanctions are not weakening moscow. the 3rd is that europe is in trouble in economic trouble, but politically to and government are collapsing like dominoes. only since the war, the governments of britain, it leap, a guerria and a stony f collapsing. and the autumn is not even here yet. the problem is that
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everywhere in europe, when a large part of european countries is certain, that there will be a recession, and this will cause political instability. why should i have to say that if we would have been a bit more lucky at the us, president of the size of our would have been donald trump, and we've managed to miss angler merkel not to leave. if donald trump would have been us president and anglo merkel, german chancellor, the war would never have started. but we didn't have luck. so we are in this war problem. we have to reach a new agreement with the russians, and your agreement has to be reached between hungry and the chinese. and a new agreement has to be reached with the united states as it would be easier with the republicans than with the current democrats. right now, despite severe rounds of sanctions of russia's economy is still standing. moscow continues to receive billions in revenue from energy exports. some 20 european bies of russian gas, i believe, to have opened accounts in the russian rouble. a kremlin decree in march required all gas payments from what it called unfriendly countries to be made in the
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national currency. but some european energy companies are voluntarily paying through russian bank accounts, saying the payments are in line with e u sanctions. ah, let's bring in our guests in vienna. we have roger hilton, a defense fellow at a globe sack, a security and geopolitical think tank in the ukrainian city levine. we have, michael bought a qx, a senior fellow at the atlantic council, and in oxford, samuel romani, and associate fennel fellow at rou. see the royal united services institute, a warm welcome to you all. roger, i'll start with you. will europe be able to maintain unity on ukraine as an ottoman winter approaches? oh, good evening, bernard, and thank you so much for having me. before getting started, as we heard on the introduction to org, i made a very spirited each that ukraine will not be able to win this war. so before we go any further, i just want to make the statement that i mean that we disagree with this position
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of the year, the prime minister. i think a lot of the cards are now are a wine you for ukraine, long term to move forward in winnie and obviously gotcha. got his comments about europe on the side is also a position. i don't agree with the european meaning itself is an institution based on values and morals. and right now it's not only a moral imperative, but it's also in their strategic interest when he cut me when he comes to the european union holding up. yes, of course, you know, you've had these 5 government that fall already, but it could be argued that it could have fallen earlier and it took 6 months for this to actually happen. so while the current implementation of the european union strategy against russia is imperfect, it has been impactful, and i think moving forward that it just need to be adjusted to move forward with the bad as the opposed to moving on. michael, do they see in ukraine? what openness saying as a, a, perhaps a commonly held view, do they worry it will become a commonly held view in europe, or they think or body speak on his own. i think a big fear in the ukraine is i,
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yes, your report become divided and that the interest in the war will wayne. and that as pressure increases on democratically elected government in europe and elsewhere that, you know, they will come to, you know, the economic costs that are happening. but look, it's very, very important for western governments to keep together when it comes to policy towards ukraine. and then i have to say as well, that is a canadian, it's very important that countries like my own stick to the sanctions they committed to. i was very, very disappointed and disillusion one prime minister trudeau recently watered down his own side in order to return those generators for north stream one back to rush up. so look, mister bond is one of the most dangerous politicians on the planet. he gave many speeches recently, some of them quite racist. he's an ally of russia, so, you know, he's, he's playing on the russian playbook. and i don't think we can believe much. and
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what he actually is, as samuel, do think europe will be able to maintain unity over ukraine, is also min winter approaches a cold weather comes. so i think that when you look at the question of european unity in several different angles, i think that certainly european countries are going to continue to supply armstrong grant. there are some disagreements, obviously with hungary not wanting to be a party in the war. and also in bulgaria that the vast majority. busy of european countries are willing to send. ready artillery air defense systems and other equipment. so in terms of army grant, i think they'll certainly be entity. but where we'll get complicated is on the next at 8th package of sanctions against russia. will they move towards the gas embargo? there was a remarkable coalescence of european countries on the swift sanctions, even on the oil embargo after a testy period on individual sanctions, sanctions and russian entities. ready and i think that that unity might start to frame when it comes to natural gas. even big players, a germany might balk, we're seeing hungary already expand it's purchases of natural gas and keep russian nuclear energy. so i think that that will be the area and,
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and also there will be divisions not just between members dates, but the biggest divisions will happen within countries. so between far right and far left marvellous parties and the governments that are in power. so we need to look at internal. busy cleavages as being the biggest source of discord for europe, binding the military support, we're likely stay. roger. despite his more outrageous statements, victor robin does have the challenges that are not unique in european countries. rising energy costs have re reliance on the russian energy on sanctions. haven't particularly worked on play rushes, triple the amount of money is earning from high energy costs. so does that need to be another look at how we treat russia in this conflict? if i could just respond very quickly to them who brings up some good point? i think for all of our views there, it's very important to recognize that the beginning of july, the czech republic is taken over the president of the european union and the czech republic for all of our years, who might not know it or part of a group that grad for which includes hungry, slovakia, poland,
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and the czech republic. and it's been very clear with their new government and been on for andre. bob is that they are going to prioritize the platform of the need or sort of as a mechanism toward the policy which was common before. i mean, also within that hungry has the president, the, the for under traditional ally polling is actually not in lock step with them moving forward onto the next point. as i said in my earlier statement, i think that you would need to adjust what's going on. now it goes without saying that when it comes to energy, different areas we're going to be, are going to be more vulnerable to others. obviously here, just across the board in low vacuum, they have major issues going on. but at the same time, there are other sources of energy coming from the south. you know, and you've had a bit of an issue right now with the, with being portugal and pulled. and also saying that the energy that they have, they might not be distributed equally as this proposed earlier this week with germany. so i'm not, you're seeing that there's a quick to this, but i do think that there is a solution to be had on the political level and trying to figure out how to maximize the got to europe that's have access to without putting too much money in
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the coffee, the russian at the same time. michael, you took it before, but i mean, there was over 5000000 ukrainian refugees across europe now is their concern that the welcome for them is waning? oh, absolutely. in fact, i just finished a tour of europe and even in poland, which has been one of the strongest supporters of ukraine. this coming september 700000 you credit school children will be admitted into polish schools. so that's a huge burden on them or thing and some other countries as well that support, for example, free ground railway tickets, things like that are being withdrawn and also people are having a lot of records are having problems funding for example, their accommodations. so it isn't an easy slog, but going back to the original quote, if i may look, i think your european government top to get their citizens ready that they have to accept short term pain for long term game. the only thing mister putin understands
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is for us, and if your pin countries begin to buckle when it comes to supplying arms to ukraine or strength of sanction, he's going to go further and further into europe. so there can be no divides when it comes to sending optimist equipment. ok, but samuel europeans take the northern europeans aren't used to having to put up with short term pain. the u commission on those gas gas shortage is the commission wants huge powers to mandate gas rationing a many european countries already resisting it. do you think b e u will manage to get that policy through? why does that could be a bit of a complicated measure? we're already seeing some nation states within the european union, normalizing the notion of gas rationing. i think there was a statement coming from the german economy ministry. so robert had back even several months ago talking about that, the netherlands was also warning about that at the same time. so gay d, as this might be inevitable, has been normalized by existing governments, but certainly it's going to be very unpopular and at rest,
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emboldening. the far right elements within those countries, the welders type politicians and the netherlands are inside germany, the f d are in italy now with mario druggie being removed, the 5 star movement in de leon ard. so they're, i think that those concerns about emboldening populace may prevent many european countries. i'm actually going through to through on this and they'll be others like hungry and so like, yeah, which i think that could drag their feet entirely and be does as you measure. roger, what do you think about that is not going to work this a 10 by the commission to give you some enormous powers to, to mandate gas rationing. if there's one thing that i think we've all learned here is not to under evaluate the grid, the creativity, and also the policy grid averse love on the lion as president of the european commission. so, i mean, look, it again, as i said earlier, this is going to be a tough decision. but i think on the political level, a lot of people thought that the massive the look that happened earlier in the 2000 that wasn't going, that wasn't going to happen in that. there was, you know,
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it talk about the greek economy and then crashing out of the euro. so i do whole hard to believe that given what that, both in the short term medium and long term that the deal will be had. will there be some tough tell this was actually maybe among german. absolutely. especially now sort of with germany 30 percent buying the unit for there is no doubt that the energy sector is hurting. but as i said, when there's a will, there's a way and i think moving forward especially to some of the slovak, like vice president richards, the president and vice president commission. i think there will be a lot of momentum to try to get this over the finish line with them winners and losers. but roger, when you say where there's a will, there's a way, i mean, there is resistance to this, particularly, you know, a lot of the view that this is to save germany. and the greeks might particularly be a bit upset about that, considering their request for 5th school lini a c years ago during the financial crisis is that you does have you guys currently have currency i think for the moment and makes great quick bait. it's great headlines, but at the end of it in there are other mechanisms within the european you need to
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try to get the ball moving forward. as i said, i mean, is it retribution is it? have been everything german shot and point it could be, but i still think long term without being you know, we're still in the early days of this conversation. winter season is still a little bit. he didn't even a little bit of way, and i think it's not to be underestimated the check president the rule they'll play in it me very famously. i think it is their interview managers that if we have to we will burn everything to stay alive to a warm. so again, you are very early days on this and i think moving forward it will be compromised, given and we'll see what happens. michael. all the further sanctions tools, the europeans and the americans, the north atlantic or countries can use against russia that haven't been employed that they should be considering. yeah, i think so. there are more banks that can be sanctioned. i think the strategy though of using sanctions to cause perhaps harm or paint otherwise from people
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hoping that they'll rise up against mr. brewton. it's not the right philosophy to follow. i think we have to get to a point and i know the american top and working on this is to get at their kind of flow starters on board. i'm talking about some of the gulf countries you a countries like that because you know, as long as the oligarch, so the people in mr. put in circle can hide their wealth or visit countries like the u. a or countries and asia for example. they will not feel the brunt of this time since we have to get to a point. and i said that before now, there, i believe it that if the oligarchs these people mr. pretend circle wants to go vacation anywhere. the only have 2 options. one would be perhaps, not korea and the others would be the illegally need island violence in the trying to see by china. so, but you know, these sanctions take a lot of work, they're not going to be employed overnight. i think there's going to be
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a lot of bilateral negotiations, for example, even with turkey, which by the way, it's trying to play media between ukraine and russia. they too are, for example, very lying on russian tourism. so it's very difficult for them to go all the way and put in the really, really tough sanctions. i believe sammy will just on, on what michael was saying that has russia had any diplomatic use success you think in limiting europe's attempts to isolate russia. we spoke, i love robes during the tour of africa, and the moment after reaching that grain deal, the middle east isn't totally behind europe. as michael just said, that why think that russia may not generally been able to leverage its relationships of populace parties or into european divisions, the sense that they would have thought. and that is not surprising because they've always overestimated their ability to create fractures within now, european societies, like i distinctly remember the heat, you rush academics in 2015 the year after the acquisition of crimea. and they were
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telling me that they were shocked that germany and many european countries ultimately sanctioned russia because they figured that their internal connections would be able to have prevented that outcome. but outside of europe, the russians are doing quite a good job at creating and moving towards the post western foreign policy. certainly, china is backing so many of their narratives are they be biological weapons as it be under version decisions, a so called peaceful solution that actively means ukraine seating and sovereignty to russia. india is looking for new investments in the russian economy. most of the middle eastern countries where the exception of turkey and sometimes intermittently, israel have really been non russia side, certainly accommodating versus divisions, and russia strengthening his ties. now, in africa with key countries like congo, uganda, egypt, ethiopia, just elaborate. sure. and in latin america, you was interesting to see marcus or the summit, not give zelinski speaking slot. so russia is post watching foreign policies embrace multiple order as outreaches to the global south have been much more successful than some people may have thought. and their narrative to say the
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sanctions for example, and not russia, bach, any of rain or causing food insecurity. those narratives are going a long way in the global west is encountering that raja is europe now having to face up to the fact that he's operating a war economy burner. if i could just again, sorry, if i could just respond to the lam, i'm really not can, if i'm just really not convinced so wholeheartedly of the success of russian, you know, soft power outreach afterwards. i think it's math in volume. a tooth, you know, to recent fighting the coons were 1st or he was any ran just the sheer fact that he was the one who's having to wait for president air. the one where he's the one who's always having to wait, which quite dramatic. and the 2nd is this really the mean ally that, you know, russia is so proud to trump it out that they had a meeting with the cola when he asked him, basically call up anybody in washington or other g 7 countries and has them also when it comes to china again, i really think this is have been year where even,
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you know, the economy is hurting quite a bit. and i think that one of the chinese companies are in court substitution or financing. they haven't that in as much as i think everybody thought they were going to procure the dragon, the dragnet a sanction, especially given the ability and the opposite of the chinese economy. and there's protest going on right now in china. so if you could just repeat the question, sorry, but well, like carry on with this thing then. okay, but even if you're not convinced by russians diplomatic successes outside of europe, putin is not going anywhere. is the sanctions haven't the stabilized him haven't threatening his removal from power? he might be playing a long game. he's. he could be a natural for a long time. he's not going to pull out of ukraine. if i could just respond to my, my colleague, even if he is playing a long game and again, i don't agree with the present. i don't agree with the position that the economy is, is ok, they're cherry picking that when you see whether i think, i mean grad, there's a sugar run or other issues we're now lot of they're coming out without,
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without technology, without the proper technology or airbag, i think it is very disconcerting and i think the silent is concerning that. what are we supposed to do with the import that and there's going to be a massive hole in the deficits in the budget moving or it is confirmed by the finance minister, and they're losing a huge amount of the federal reserve every their reserves, when it's sanction so again, on the economic level, i think things are much worse, but when it comes to the you, yes, the system is set up that while it's not great and presumably the evidence suggest that we're going to be going to recession and the cost of living is going high, which feeds into a damn about a lot of the popular parties. this is the reality we have to live in europe has gone through other big crates before. alright. michael is pushing playing the long game. it's going to make do with a don't boss stories are going to, it's enough of a face saving option all but not for domestically controls a state media. so nope, there's no particular opposition that to public up into what he's doing, what the ukrainian view of how he's going to play out. yeah,
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definitely. he's playing the long game. i mean, let's not forget that this war actually started in 2014, not on february 24th of this year. and then, you know, in that time i saw has been inoculating itself against sanctions. for example, with a tighter alliance with china, which is something they did even during the demik with when i was traveling around . so they, they, you know, the beauty of being a dictator. of course you don't have to face viola. i got a lot of was electric, excuse me, on a level playing field. you can manipulate elections, you can get reelected and like president, she trying to empower for for life. but i do think the china is, i mean, kind of ally of russia at the moment are much, much more bands. they're much more pragmatic. and that when they see that it's not to their benefit, that roger is warring with ukraine and then also causing trouble elsewhere in the neighborhood. for example, in the central region states that they will pulled further away. and then i think
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this is the wild card, bernard, i think this is where the rush will be for us to reevaluate it's try to can you can't, but yeah, the ukrainians need desperately much, much for weaponry. and the main thing they need right now, because no interview crane can be considered safe. where i'm sitting right now is they need the ability to close those guys to the long range. russian missiles that can be shot from inside rush from the 1000 miles away. yeah, all right, so then samuel with a weapons that nato is supplying to russia, has russia got the resources to keep fighting at its, at its current levels, given the new weaponry coming in? well, that's always been an open question. how long could russia sustain itself? i mean, there were version challenges or for us there predict even back in march and april at russia would burn through is precision weaponry stocks. that's why i was relying on gauge when he choose and a lot more app for quality, less precise. so we there weaponry,
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but i think that that's less because they're running out of stocks more because they're just trying to minimize cost and they don't really care about the loss of civilian lives. i think the russia can definitely continue fighting this war for at least one did you years, at least the estimate is coming from the ground even. and also russia will be in fortifying its defensive positions even in places and sell in ukraine. so it will lab benchley minimize them with casualties clean for susie hundreds of people a day right now, which was some reports are showing and is burning through a lot of weapons docs. we shouldn't underestimate rushes long term ability to continue prosecuting this. busy for though he mars and other systems that data was given to you, grand are big advantage. you're still see, i don't a reports in the curves on camera events up at russia can sell our gun ukrainian military by 8 to one in terms of artillery. oh, that's a big advantage. the rush asked on roger lawsuit. so do you think, how's russia got the resources to keep fighting at his current levels? and if so, is the, the approach europe is taking, as you were saying at the beginning, the program you maintain the path that it's on. why do seem to be in that position
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right now where i don't going to be green, allow the remaining just like dime reference. i mean, you had to richard worth speaking at the awesome security conference. you said that russia was running out of steam before we want to sort of be your team strategy at the same time off that made some good points about them. having co bach brought in by laurie's and, you know, don't get me wrong. this is going to be quite a difficult take on her son offensive. you know, just yesterday you had the american and bothers will back. and dr. bricks you was formerly the doctors who said that united states support for ukraine will go on as long as it's needed. so if you have united states in that, i think that the tone for the rest of the countries will continue the munition. and one point that is not reported up enough is while they still have the artillery theory already in terms of the ratio for the russian, there are other long range weapons that the united states could be providing that are even better than high mars that would actually even changed about a field even more drastically. so it's not as if this is the end all be all for the equipment that can be shipped in. not to mention the massive security training
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program that's going on in the u. k. just today you had been wallet vakio looking into other issues when he comes to the you. i think finally my position is they're going to have to amend the strategy a little bit, a little bit of given take. i think we saw an example of that with a great deal will pardon me. jennifer rushed to get through the brain that they could get their fertilizer to market. so i said moving for the year. we'll have to adapt gentlemen for the mom or out of time, but thanks to our guest raja hilton to michael bus a q and to samuel romani. and thank you to watching. you can see the problem again . any time by visiting our website, al jazeera dot com for more debate, go to our facebook page, thought facebook dot com forward slash ha. inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter. we are at a inside story from me, bernard smith and the entire team here. and, oh ha. ah
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ah ah ah ah.
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