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tv   Inside Story  Al Jazeera  August 3, 2022 2:30pm-3:01pm AST

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calling states to make their own abortion laws were pro abortion rights. activists gathered in a suburban town near kansas city where they celebrated the decision. i worked so hard for you to last couple of months to really do need a key with motor is about with in really what and what was the state was our constitutional rights in our freedom. and so, you know, a coalition of voters across the political spectrum keep together today and voted no a voted no to protect their neighbors. anybody know, i'm changing the constitution and really demonstrated are free hearing cancer alive a law. ah, this is al jazeera and these are the top stories. us how speak and nancy pelosi has left taiwan not for visit denounced by china. she repeated washington's commitment
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to protect democracy on the self governing island, which beijing considered as part of its territory. china has conducted live at 5 military drills around taiwan in retaliation for those his visit. the time when these defense ministry says the exercises violate on and sovereignty and breach un rules. sure, she chose told you this is an out and out father. the united states is violating chinese sovereignty under the guise of so called democracy, taiwan, sighing when and her ill, according to the us, and turning their backs on national justice. these behaviors that go against the trend of times will not change the international consensus of one china and will not change the historic trend that taiwan will inevitably return to the motherland . those who play with fire will not come to a good end. and those who have been china will be punished. top southeast asian diplomat. so meeting income both for the sea and the summit. both russian foreign
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minister certainly lovegrove and us secretary state antony blinking a set to attend security concerns on top of the agenda. those include the crisis in min more intention about taiwan. for than 5000 indonesian u. s. and other troops holding a joint military training exercise until august 14th, the us on its asian allies of express growing concern about china's increasing influence in the pacific. washington says the drills aren't aimed at any country, an inspection of the 1st grain cargo ship to leave ukraine since the russian invasion has been completed off the coast of turkey. a team board of the need to carry out checks before the vessel has to lebanon. the ship is being monitored by the new joint coordination center in istanbul, turkish, russian, ukrainian, and you and staff are taking part on the deal, signed last month. iraq's influential, surely the macarthur of southern has told his supporters to leave parliament,
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continue their protest outside. thousands of them stores the building in bagdad on saturday. feather had called on all the rockies to join what he calls a resolution. but his opponent say it's a cute. there's not the headline. small news on i'll just say, are off the inside story to stay with us. ah, one miscalculation the world face is nuclear annihilation. the head of un warns were at the most dangerous time since the cold war, nuclear armed nations calling for disarmament. but do they have the wilt eliminates you can with it. this is the inside story. ah
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blow welcome to the program on cam vanelle. the treaty on the non proliferation of nuclear weapons has been credited with keeping the world safe. nearly every country has signed the agreement known as the m p t, which aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and promote the peaceful use of atomic technology. but the un secretary general warms the world, is just one dangerous miscalculation away from nuclear conflict. and toner. quoterush says the threat is at its highest level since the end of the cold war. ashes invasion of ukraine has dramatically raised the stakes. their concerns about china's rapid uptake of nuclear weapons. the u. n. is hosting a conference to review ways to strengthen the treaty. and some nations believe to hold nuclear weapons including israel, india, and pakistan. i'm not attending. we'll bring in our guests in a moment at 1st,
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this report from kristen salumi at un headquarters in new york. the un secretary general kicked off the 10th review conference of the n p t by sounding the alarm to the day humanities. just one muse, understanding one miscalculation away from me at an e. lation. we have been extraordinary lucky so far, but lucky is not the strategy. his pessimism stands in sharp contrast to when russia in the united states signed on to the treaty in 1970. this is indeed an historic occasion. it was the height of the cold war and the goal was to prevent a nuclear conflict. nations of the world moved from a period of confrontation to a period of negotiation and a period of lasting peace. as recently as january, the 5 permanent members of the un security council, who also happened to be the officially recognized nuclear weapons states, the united states, the united kingdom, russia, china, and france,
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all pledge not to further disseminate nuclear weapons. but a month later, russia invaded ukraine, while russia claims full compliance with the n p t. others consider that a threat, and it's engaged in reckless, dangerous nuclear saber rattling with its president warning that though supporting ukraine self defense, quote, risk and consequences such as you have never seen in your entire history. and then there's the iran nuclear deal agreed in 2015. it was heralded as a step towards reducing proliferation until the u. s. withdrew. now iran says it has enough uranium to build a nuclear weapon. you don't need to enter, you don't motor a little bit while few nations have gone as far as north korea and trying to build them. and i nuclear campaign or say other countries are expressing a new willingness to host them as a deterrent. that's what frightens valerie. a has a nuclear expert from ukraine attending the conference. so there is
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a widespread belief that nuclear weapons have prevented a big war. and it turned out not to be true signatories to the n p t. r. meant to gather every 5 years in an attempt to advance the goal of disarmament this year. thanks to global tensions. experts say there's little hope of action. christine salumi al jazeera, the united nations. well, the head of a round atomic agency says his country has the ability to make a nuclear bomb, but doesn't plan to an advisor to iran supreme leader made similar comments to algebra last month. so by the us it's no secret that we have become a nuclear threshold states and this is a reality. it's also no secret that we have the technical capabilities required to manufacture a nuclear bomb. but we don't want that global watchdog say, despite a small decrease in the number of warheads. now, thea,
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the total nuclear arsenal is expected to grow in the next decade. just 9 countries hold the world's estimated stock pile of 12700 nuclear warheads. more than 90 percent of them belong to russia in the us. the 2 nations have been jointly retiring there. austin, on getting rid of a total of $3660.00 warheads, but many still remain. the u. s. has been scaling back, its non strategic nuclear weapons, which are shorter and range and have less explosive force while russia has largely kept its stockpile. ah, that's bringing our guests in vienna, robert kelly, a distinguished fellow at the stock home international piece research institute. he's also a former director at the i the international atomic energy agency in the hor, robbie ok, sorry, director at the center for security and policy research at the university of la whore and author of the book. the blind i u. s. non proliferation policy towards pakistan from ford to clinton and in washington,
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richard cubits. a senior fellow and director at partnerships and proliferation prevention at the stimson center. he has previously worked for the state department on counter proliferation. very one, welcome to all i got with you, robert. kelly antonio potato says he's worried that crises with nuclear undertones could escalate. how serious is the threat right now that nuclear weapons could actually be used? i don't tutor large between the designated nuclear weapons states the permanent 5. i would be very concerned about south asia and india and pakistan maybe using some of their reserve to might use nuclear weapons. the concerns and ukraine right now, probably real, but i don't see them as, as prizing to a very high level where it now. okay. richard can fit the u. s. secretary of state gave a big speech about how invested the u. s. is in lowering the threat of nuclear war,
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but do the main nuclear powers that we've talked about? do they actually want nuclear weapons eliminated, or do they just want to stop others from having them? well, thank you for the invitation. i certainly believe there's an interest, at least in the part of the bio ministration, which you can see in president biden statements for the reducing the u. s. nuclear nuclear arsenal. but i think the question is always been how to do that without actually increasing the risk of nuclear conflicts in the process. i'm not so sure about some of the other nuclear powers at this point in particularly given the russian federation. as you notice, noted in your report, it's references to nuclear weapons in its current recent unprovoked threats. and there may be other countries that also have limited interest in nuclear disarmament at this time. for me,
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i work with so under secretary work, she's the un secretary general derossi's were a miscalculation away, i would point and side with professor scott sagan, leaving that the more states with nuclear weapons, the greater the risk of accident, sabotage or miscalculation. so i think there is a, it's not necessarily a hypocritical position to be in to want to try to reduce your weapons stockpiles while preserving and making sure that you, you increase actually increase the risk of use of nuclear weapons in the process. ok, robbie ox are in the hor, you see the, the nonproliferation treaty is as a sort of gatekeeper with these, with these main players. can you just walk us through that? thank you so much for having me on the show. i've always been game this. the vision that in the nation non issue jean, can you best categorized as organized boxy,
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and we all leave it organized to offer. she is an inherent fond of the conflicts international system where states behavior is inconsistent, the norms and principals. it rhetoric you endorse, and the international system we all understand is unpredictable and complex and the rules and norms of the system they constantly josh, is a states national interest making it difficult to remain consistent behavior. so one would argue that if these inconsistencies and behavior exist, the new norm should be established, but you're seeing there are several decades, no new norms have been established to deal with the inconsistency. and i believe that, you know, this organized the ball chrissy has been a development of popular nowadays. and there has been selected norms of nonproliferation that have been projected in on to offices. and we had,
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there's plenty of examples you know, that leader should be, that is in the interest of countryside, us and others, allies of their allies to pick and choose country that benefit from the selected. can you give an example in the interest? yeah, so for example, you know, when in 2013 us where to go shading, read it on in order to stop at the program or not having the ambition she develop nuclear weapons. it was signing a nuclear cooperation rebate. and it decided that it is going to provide, you know, heavy fuel for, you know, the non reactive and new rate. and i'm at that point in time also had very additional human rights. there was no to gene for nuclear security in play. yes. this elective case offer liberation was happening. while on the other hand,
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i want to throw it over to robert kelly to get your take on that is this organized hypocrisy by some of those main powers. i'm thinking about all costs that the deal between the u. s. and the trailer in the u. k. to let us trailer get nuclear power submarines which, which china is obviously very concerned about. you know, is there some pump chrissy going all there's nature boxy there and i think given this over to lawyers and accountants as shown there, easy to get the wrong end of the stick. the problem right now is that australia has 6 small diesel submarines that they used to coastal defense and some where the french offered them replacements for those same machines. what has happened is the u. s. u k way. then they stab the french in the back and condense the australians that they need 8 nuclear submarines that are capable of launching missiles at the chinese main. where from the south china sea,
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that's the big problem. they're not nuclear missiles, they want to launch, but land attack missiles, it, australia has turned its entire program upside down from coastal defense to attacking china. and if you don't think that's going to cause problems, just watch what's happening with china. they that you as a major threat and to the earlier come, would like say that russia has made some very threatening comments. donald trump made the same comments about his red button a couple of years ago. and the hell that he would rain down north korea. so lot of people can make big talk, but let's see if you're a real need just before we move on, mr. kelly from year you told her about, you know, russia, i guess it's been accused of nuclear saber rattling but then at the beginning of this, of this conference, these told happening president putin wrote, we proceed from the fact that it can be no win isn't a nuclear war and it should be, it should never be unleashed. so is that really nuclear saber rattling or is
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a rush, or i think the door for discussions. i think what we're missing here is there are several different scenarios we should be looking at. if there's a problem between, but mostly the americans and the russians who don't, whether it's are decades with arms control and then there are larger issues of the perm 5 and they're larger. and she's yet of the perm 5 plus states and capital employer items. but are not part of the mpg where you put north korean, that is difficult to say. so i think what we're thinking here is the bi lateral issue between russia and the united states. you know, there's danger there, but that it's complicated by nato, of course, because the other natal members are nuclear umbrella states, but that i think is where we might be concentrating where you can fit in washington d. c. how has the war in ukraine changed the calculation around warfare and around u. k weapons and around nuclear deterrence?
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well, i think that's the impact is, is still to be determined. but the immediate situation is, i think it's hard in some positions in terms of those who are supporting the ban treaty, for example. but at the same time, it is moved some other states that has not been in prior in prior years, support of let's say, an extended nuclear umbrella. nate, mainly sweden and gentlemen, towards nato, which i think russia did not really anticipate or, or hope what happened as a result of the 2nd invasion of ukraine. so i certainly think it does have some additional impacts. we personally, having worked at the united nations as well as state department, i would have it. i think it's going to be very difficult for us diplomats to trust
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their counterparts on the other side given what's instead. and in addition, i think, i think another thing that's another development is though, there may be some more serious discussion of, of the safety insecurity of nuclear power plants, which given the what's happened in ukraine. but it is 7 pillars idea that's been endorsed by the governors that came from director general grossi. i think those that, that's a, that's a discussion that needs to be moved to the forefront. because we're, especially as we see an increase in interest in nuclear power around the world in order to address some of the issues related to climate change. i want to come back to you, robert after to talk a little bit more about this idea of hypocrisy. because when we talk about the main nuclear power is the u. s. u. k, russia, china,
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france. what about the other suspected nuclear powers? israel india, pakistan. why is it ok for them, i guess u. s. allies to, to have these weapons, but not there is a theory. say iran i can get the great question. and then also, you know, to deal with the gatekeeping of the kind of power they have a vide, you're writing the roles into, has and has not. and even, you know, where it is right in there and it's better outside 3, nbc, and have new services. i considered to be illegitimate, nuclear weapons states they're calling nuclear states, possess the states, but not too big. so even with their electric on, you know, you're trying to control power and as to what it means to these countries. i believe that, you know, increase like is right. for example, there is hardly any conference that i have on your residence in which, you know,
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it drives invisible. nobody talks about his eyes, you can read and nobody talks about, you know, what you're shopping, the lease from achieving and nuclear and treason. very all the other countries on board, except for right now you're backing it. and also with this idea that, you know, one country was there, thing you get written has a different sense of rationality as compared to the b 5 who have as it, you know, they really be more rational their years. and these images are actually outside the be irrational when i do that, the ones from where do you think that stem from this idea that you know, the pin 5 would take rational decisions. * and, you know, other nations would not, where does that come from? so it has always been, you know, about the broader security studies, music studies, nija they're, you know, united states being the bus country to requiring generated this managers that,
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you know, the other ones more responsible. there's new and any other new stake, you know it's, it's not going to be responsible. so this whole idea about nuclear responsibility somehow has been in generic. and now you know what to do to decades. it has come to this game, sort of the pay, the district to nuclear weapons and responsibility that, you know, i think it needs a new out there that needs it, needs new generation to base this forward and question as to how are you was responsible when you are the ones who are the only country in this who have use use the ribbon on the country in the world who has had more number of accidents leading . if those accidents, you know, actually detonated, you know, the world would have seen those, you know, residence detonated. you have, hi jacob,
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this new year. and these new countries that you and your accidents, the history of it, and have learned that you know what is not to be done. and i'm war. you know, this once again you can safety, unsecure, your g. yes, we are. the ones who are pointed thing is that i think all of this needs to be question and continuous thinking. question that one rationality. you know, it's not to be to, to the other. you know, i just want to, i want to pass that over to robert kelly. was there something you wanted to add? add to that? i think 1st, the 1st reason that one believes that there is some rationality in the weapons. lessing states is about 75 years of restraint and not using them. if we look at the enter the introduction that you can have. someone said the large countries are down about 3000 weapons. i think they're more like 330000 weapons just been removed from the russian and american stockpiles. and if we look at what countries are growing
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their stockpiles today, the largest growth is in pakistan, and pakistan will surpass the kingdom and france fairly soon in being or the 4th largest weapon states, no matter what kind of label on them. so if you're worried about who's increasing their stockpiles and who's dictating militaristic lee? i'm sorry. media followed shortly by the p r k. yeah, i want to talk about north korea, because you currently have a discussion about nuclear nonproliferation without talking about north korea. how does the, the d, p. ok, keeping nuclear weapons on the table, showing them off launching tests. how does that impacts other nations and their ability or inability to reduce their stockpile? because if you have that, you know, clear threat on display, what does it do for the rest of the nonproliferation disarmament movement? and also, what does it mean to south korea? i think one person just to look at is one of the north screening stockpile is real
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or not. they have trusted a number of weapons. most of those just, we can follow through their lineage and see what they were for. i don't think there thermonuclear test was, i was real in the sense of being weaponized with device. and there's no sign that those were had ever been to the, to a missile. and just to see if the richie target, so the p r k, maybe accumulated weapons, but they're not human rating or weapon systems that can deliver a weapon to a target. ok, richard q, but how it's a fight against climate change. complicated efforts toward the nuclear is ation because obviously energy is becoming more expensive. people are looking back towards nuclear options. so how is that kind of coloring the picture? well certainly i think a number of states have indicated that their real interest in expanding their nuclear power programs or in barking on a nuclear power program in the light of climate change,
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especially with small modular reactors, other new in advance reactors systems. so in terms of d, nuclear is ation, that's, that's an issue in terms of getting rid of nuclear weapons or preventing proliferation. it's more of, it's more of an issue of over time. you know, i think we've known from the beginning that if you learn a few things from nuclear power, they do have some application to potentially to developing programs. so the, the issue is always then, how do we promote the peaceful uses including nuclear power of nuclear energy while restraining the, any idea of moving towards a weapon system. and that's largely 3 safeguards is what we comprehensive safeguards agreement, which is what the international community is relied on the past. so it does complicate things because it creates more states that will be in
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a position if they so choose to pursue a nuclear weapons program. they, however, that that's a big yes, moving from being able to do it to choosing to do it is, is a very big step. i think there's a really interesting book recently by now rang called seeking the bomb that talks about hedging strategies. a number of states have moved to a point where they might be able to have a program, but they've so far chosen not to some others have actually maybe have more of as chosen to do so, but not tested, not move beyond that. so there's, there's a range of strategies related here, but i think the most important one is for states to be able to enjoy the peaceful uses of nuclear nuclear energy and nuclear technologies. but making sure that they don't choose to pursue a nuclear weapons. ok,
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we're coming and that is i would know i part of our nuclear cooperation agreements . yeah. and push what you're saying. we're coming to the end of the program. what about 45 seconds left. so it's a very quick question to you. robert. tar is the promise of nuclear nonproliferation essentially unfair because it keeps the power in the hands of those countries that can exploit them. i think we have much to be grateful or to the end that it has to have the numbers. no, i do believe that this bargain is and even the discussion draft on you would see that russia and address that it has made is going to dominate. and it's again, going to come back to you then that you find this on the 5 can on this on the guys there is no broader beef and international security. if you just allow me a couple of seconds. sure. you know, i agree my hand to make to make
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a comment about south asia being the nan flash point and both of my family, you know, reference to it of 2019 lama volleyball prices between india and boston crisis. nations where you rested with did not use in nuclear and words in the in di crisis in the literature coming out from the rest. david, focus on the be the 12 years. and so i think there is a change out there that you should be brought about appreciate non use coming from the rest the day. don't really have the ownership of non use new countries like india, docusign, you know, have you strain from using nuclear weapons and took several prices as much evidence to ok. we'll have to leave it there for time. thank you very much to all of i guess robert kelly robbie october and richard keep it and thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website to l just are dot com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page that facebook dot com forward slash a j inside story. you're going to join the conversation on twitter. we are at
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a j inside story for me, kim vanelle and whole team here in the ah ah ah
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ah sake that mm hm. and then international intake corpse and excellence award boat. now for your hero. ah hello, i'm adrian finnegan in doha with a summary of videos on how to sierra b u. s. how speaker nancy pelosi has left taiwan after a visit that's been denounced by china. she met.


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