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tv   Counting the Cost  Al Jazeera  October 15, 2022 1:30am-2:01am AST

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tim's are a fighter with the janine brigades group and a doctor who was shot outside the hospital policy infections of call for a day of rage at least 119 palestinians have been killed by israeli forces in the occupied west bank since the beginning of the year. will arise, sign of protest has been seen in beijing, head of the communist party congress. anti government banners are put up on the side of an overpass. reading. let us remove the dictatorial traitor. she ging ping . we want to eat, we want freedom. we want to vote. plumes of smoke was also seen blowing from the bridge. are the banners called for the end of judging things rule and an enter strict covered regulations? according to some of the pictures seen on twitter. now the actor robbie coltrane, who played hagrid in the harry potter films, has died at the age of $72.00 scottish actor played the hub woods gamekeeper and all 8 harry potter films. he also appeared in the james bond movies, golden. i and the world is not enough. coltrane's agent confirmed the actor died in
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hospital near fall kirk in scotland. ah, quick look at the main stories of following this. our versions prime minister list trust is sacked, her chancellor, quasi quite tang, and made another major policy. you turn, her government has reversed controversial economic policies that a triggered financial market turmoil quoting is going to be replaced by jeremy hunt . the back trust is main rival during this years leadership contest trust says she's trying to reassure the markets. my, if it is clear that parts of our mini budget went further and faster the markets were expecting. so the way we are delivering our mission right now has to change. we need to act now to reassure the markets of our fiscal discipline. the international monetary fund is slashed, its economic forecasts for europe,
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funders predicted growth in develop european countries will fall from 3.2 percent this year to just point 6 percent in 2023. it's as the warren ukraine is hitting europe's pose. pandemic recovery along with sky energy prices and a rising cost of living. coming in to 2022 things stood a strength, coordination and solidarity displayed in policy response. a still carried 19. europe was on its way. ready to exit depend emerick. meanwhile, rising inflation was expected to gradually subside as commodity prices and supply bottlenecks would ease. but russia's invasion of ukraine changed or pitcher completely, and it is now taking a growing toll on europe's economies. or ukraine. officials has russia call for residents to feed the harrison region amounts to deportation, not evacuation. kiva saying it's forces have made significant gains in the southern region. but the areas that russian control leader is calling on civilians to
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evacuate on thursday, citing daily rocket attacks by advancing ukrainian troops. ukraine rejects accusations that it targets its own civilians. an iran supreme leader is warn people protesting against the government that these lamb it were public can't be destroyed. it's exactly 4 weeks as the death of 22 year old massa. mimi protested say she died after being beaten by morality, police for inappropriate attire. those are the headlines this hour, counting the cost is the program coming up next, but there will be more news from it go higher in about 25 minutes time. the chinese communist party holds it. 20th congress, delegates for me to discuss constitutional change, economic challenges, and phone policy with president jean ping likely to secure at that time. will he be given even more power to pursue his vision for the future? for his story on which is era. i
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it . hello, i'm hasn't seeka. this is counting the cost on al jazeera, your weekly look at the world of business and economics. this week, it was seen as a slap in the face to president biden. opec classes moved to cut oil output, has drawn angry criticism from washington. why did they do it? and how will a u. s. respond also this week, the world's financial fire fighter. a few people like it's harsh lending conditions . we look at the role of the international monetary fund in his gloomy economic times. is it losing relevance? and while some african countries aren't ready yet to let go of fossil fuels, others are turning to green energy sources to lower their carbon footprint. ah, of
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a months president joe biden has lobbied saudi arabia and the other oil producing countries to help ease energy prices by pumping more oil into the market. but in a major policy reversal opec plus that includes russia, decided to cut output by $2000000.00 barrels a day in november. the u. s. is calling the decision short sighted. it is accused the kingdom of siding with moscow, which relies heavily on its oil revenues. opec plus says the move is purely economic, a response to uncertainty about future demand for oil. our priority now is stabilizing market. now, we could be accused of wanting to influence market in negative way. everybody's broke, we'll and others. we'll see how we conduct our sales in the months to come. a biden has vowed what he calls consequences for saudi arabia over the opec plus
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decision to slash output. it is the biggest reduction by the group since the height of the pandemic in 2020. but actual costs are likely to be smaller because many opec members aren't meeting their targets. the price of about brent crude jumped to more than $93.00 after the announcement last week. it was on a downward trend in late september from highs of about $130.00. the u. s. has pledged to release $10000000.00 barrels from its stop piles next month in an attempt to keep oil prices down. and the u. s. is considering steps to reduce opec's control over energy prices. include the know oil producing and exporting cartels or no peck built. it's meant to protect american consumers and businesses from engineered oil spikes. it's been debated for more than 2 decades in a senate judiciary committee passed it in may, but in the past the full senate and house and signed by the president to become law . the bill would enable us to revoke the sovereign immunity,
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which protects opec plus members and their national oil companies from lawsuits. the u. s. attorney general would have the option to sue the oil cartel members in federal court. so to discuss all of this, i'm join now from new york by antwan, how former chief oil analyst at the international energy agency. and currently an adjunct senior research scholar at the center on global energy policy at columbia university. and the co founder and chief all analyst at k ross good to have you with us. so i'm opec, and now the opec plus alliance has never cut out. put this much in this quickly. why now it might seem surprising. it's much more proactive cats than we've seen in the past. if you look at her satellites or imaging over inventories today, there's no sign of overhang. there's no, all the supply to the stocks have been fairly flat for the last few weeks. but i
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think this concerns that they are going to increase. there's concerns about the looming we session. and the fact that stops have been flood might be seen as a warning signal because normally stocks globally tend to decrease in september in october. so it's a. ready somewhat surprising it's, it's unusual for opec to cat supply in the, in the face of a recession. typically, the language is more that the opec is willing to take a price cut to have the economy. but it's understanding and i think most people who are watching balance is supply demand mattresses. we are expecting a fairly significant cut, obviously is taken the u. s. government by supplies for our pike passed says it's trying to get ahead of the curve. but are there any indications of a slumping demand and how soon could that happen? there's clearly severe impacts from the, the ruddy in that for gas prices and the,
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and the constraints on the gas market. if you look at industrial, the activity in europe, in germany, in other countries, in europe, there's been a very sharp decline in activity on demand guidance on most didn't is on the consumer side. on the other side, specifically, the impact is less flagrant. right now. there's been a bit of a lack of a boost in demand in the summer. for example, the summer driving demand in the us in europe with a weak airline demand. this is tina, very, very or diminished and they all concerns looking forward. so they are, they are on the expectations of a decline. it hasn't really materialized in the oil market as much as in other aspects of the energy spectrum. but there's concerns about future contraction. that's for sure. but the cuts are likely to be less than $2000000.00 barrels, because many countries are meeting how put targets. so how effective is this rock reduction going to be on prices then?
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yeah, nobody expects $2000000.00 obviously in to me on paper. in fact, case is going to be less than $1000000.00 expectations very from $700.00 to $8900000.00. but that, that's going to be less than the this. the shock at the shock value, the sticker shock of the $2000000.00 is not going to be mass in practice. and if you look at the market reaction, the price does not increase so much. so i think the market that is depends. i've had a comfortable that the market can take these kind of get an, a u. s. is accusing saudi arabia siding with russia in, in making this decision. so how much would these cuts then benefit masika? well, any cat, this is beneficial to moscow because there's a reduction in export. so even if there's no reduction in exports or price increase, we obviously have moscow maintain export revenue and finance. it's worth it. so there's obviously concerns there. and the russian economy has got the resilience 2
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sections that hasn't been a collapse in the, in the, in the russian economy. but there are signs of fiction, of, of tension. and i think over time, moscow is clearly going to feel the impact of sanctions and of the impact of it's worth it on the on budget. and the usaa saying that it could release oil from its national stockpiles as appropriate. it says, but how much could they release and how much of a difference is that going to make them prices where the u. s. s. p r is to very large. it's the largest in the world, and there's a significant for drawing capacity in the u. s. the u. s. has been drawing on it's on the reserves and has accelerated the pace of the stocking of the s p r since march. i think that was a great decision, mr. the come the market when the market was concerned about in the bus stop in the, in the question supplier with actually was, did not happen. and probably the u. s. should that stuff should be more as i, in adjusting in the pace of the stocking. of course,
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from this job earlier on. now the s p r cut is completely offset by the d opec production cut. the s p r releases is completely offset the u. s. obviously has the option of increasing the pace of the stocking. i don't think would be necessarily a wise idea. it would deplete the reserve and it would not really serve any purpose . not bring any benefit right now, but it's an option if the market gets too tight and there's no peck bill, the so called no peck bill that's being considered in the, in the u. s. right now. could that, could that become a law? and i mean what, what difference will it make, i mean, is, is it going to affect opec's dominance on the, the energy prices? isn't this clearly and that poor in washington, a sense of her to sense of pain and her an eagerness to examine what kind of policy tools but kind of measures could be taken to express displeasure. and no back is it is one of those 2 was it's, it's a bit ironic because it just 2 years ago,
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everybody in the us was begging opec to pet supply from the president to, to producers, to local authorities. and was willing to participate in the supply in the supply cuts at the height, the could be fantastic. so i don't think based on this recent experience that the, that the legislation has any legs, but it certainly can be a nuisance, can be a distraction. and can, can, can be an irritant in the relationship, and there's a strong likelihood that this is going to be a sustained interest in reviving this piece of a decision. what other options does the us have, if any, at this point to get an oil prices down where to get all places done? if there's a need to really bring them done in a big way that could suddenly increase the s p. all that good. there's no the industry could pick up the pace of fucking in the shade much and there could be an effort to, to bring supply from areas that have been restricted like been with us like you on
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. and i think it's no coincidence that we have some interest in trying to lift the, the foot from the pedal or ben is within sections of the money and negotiations are continuing. and there is now some strong interests on the market sense in bringing them to fruition. all right, anton house. good to get your analysis. thank. he added me, but i the international monetary fund is often called the lender of last resort. countries look to it for financial assistance in times of crisis. it was created more than 7 decades ago to promote economic stability after world war 2. but the world has changed a great deal since then. and now the pandemic as well as the war in ukraine are threatening economic conditions around the world. it's leading many people to question the i m. s. relevance in 2022. the critics have taken aim at its demand
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for reforms and austerity in exchange for bailout loans. for many countries at risk of defaulting on that, that are still seeking financial help from the i m. f. pakistan has political turmoil and devastating floods to deal with. they just secured a loan of around $1000000000.00. sri lanka is close to finalizing almost $3000000000.00 while egypt is also in talks for a new loan. a lending programs are expected to increase as the i m. f paint's, a gloomy outlook for the global economy. the institution has cut global growth for cost the next year to 2.7 percent, and warns the worst is yet to come. in many blames rushes invasion of ukraine. the cost of living crisis and china's economic slowdown for the downturn. the i'm f predicts, the world's output will shrink by 4 trillion dollars between now and 2026. that is
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almost the size of the german economy. and more than 100 nations requested bailouts from the i m f. more than 2 years ago. at the height of the cobra. 1900 health crisis. and the institution has around a $140000000000.00 in our standing loans to $44.00 member countries. argentina is the biggest data with a total outstanding amount of more than $42000000000.00, followed by egypt that around $17000000000.00. the i m. s. s. 60 percent of low income countries are now at high risk already in debt distress, and a growing number of middle income countries of suffering from high debt service birds. the un estimates 54 countries that's more than half the world's poorest people need immediate debt relief to avoid extreme poverty. for washington d. c. i'm joined now by scott morris, senior fellow at the center for global development. good to have you with scott. so 1st off, 3 lank passed on are among the did the countries facing debt distress?
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what is that? what has led us to this point with them? well, i think you have a very difficult combination of factors for both countries. some of them home grown in terms of their own policy decisions, frankly, entry long because case really, you know, really deep problems in governance to some degree with pakistan as well. but frankly, also global forces that are in play right now that are exacerbating the situation. rising interest rates, the ongoing effects of the pandemic. so it really is this confluence of forces that are, that are hitting both countries very hard and all the i m f loans helping countries like this or do they make things worse? well, you know, to some degree, i think the mouth gets a bad reputation in part because it does show up at times when countries are pe
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seem there were, there were situations in terms of crisis. but on the other hand, i think there is a long history of the, i'm not always getting things right in terms of the judgment they make. and i think you know this, this can happen in a couple of different ways. one, i think there have been periods where the i am has and pose conditions on their loans that are more harms and help too much asperity in some situations. too much reach into the decision making of the government across a wide range of issues. there are also times, frankly, when the, i enough, it's too easy. and here i think that applies more to the position of other creditors to these countries where the i and that allows the creditors, you know, too much position in the bargaining. because oftentimes would be countries need
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certainly if we look at re longer right now, their creditors are going to have to take care cuts. they're going to have to write down some of those that. and the in the plays an important role in helping navigate that situation. making sure that everyone is bearing a fair share of the cost of working out of these crises. so do you see the i am, if adapting it's approach at all to the current circumstances. so we look back to 2020 and the the panoramic as a trigger for a lot of economic problems in the world. you know, the, i really did step up, they, they, they opened their, their lending windows. they did it quickly with low conditionality. so we saw a lot of money flowing out of the institution, but frankly, since that time we, we haven't seen that kind of stands from the foreign countries have,
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has not been been borrowing. so it remains be seen. i think we, you know, these 2 countries, the, you named are probably on the front angel front as to what will be a growing number of countries in crisis. and it really will be important to see how the responds, will they provide quicker access to their money? well, they set aside traditional conditionality to ensure that countries have the financing that they need to, to, to whether that's crisis. now there are a number of countries in the world that are facing some level of debt distress. do you think the i m f is doing enough to help the global south? i think to their credit, you know, they're showing signs of preparing. so they're creating new, new lending windows, some focused on food security, distress right now, which is, is, is certainly laudable. they've created
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a new resilience trust fund. so all these trust funds they've been spending time setting up, but we haven't seen them perform yet. and these are, they are particularly targeted low income countries because if they are tapped, they offer much easier terms. financial terms, very low interest rates. but we just don't, we haven't seen yet large volumes of fund flowing out of these facilities. and i, i think the real test will be one of scale. as you say, we are likely to see significantly a larger number of countries, many of them among the poorest countries in the world. and you know, for, for a large number of these countries, you know, this truly is a shock that is not of their own making. whether it's the food security issues associated with the war in ukraine. ongoing issues of the pandemic. none of these
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things were problems created by these countries or their governments. so, you know, the issue around conditionality is, is, is a key one here. not, not necessarily the moment to try to leverage policy reforms in these governments when they're trying to deal with prices that were not of their own making. and of course, each country has its own monetary policies dealing with its own set of challenges. but do you think the i m f is doing enough to promote the stability of the, of the international monetary system as a whole? well, this is a key question right now. and this has more to do with the relationship with its rich country members. so obviously there's a lot of attention on the federal reserve here in the u. s. and their actions, which are guided by domestic requirements and domestic law. but clearly there are
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ramifications and significant negative ramifications for other countries in the world, in terms of the interest rate of facts. so what we would like to see, what we want to see is, is coordination between the us, between european governments and the i'm out on ways in which they can deal with this collateral damage for other countries. and we've seen that in the past prices, the federal reserve has opened swap lines with other central banks in the world. i think, you know, that is in coordination with the i the, i and that, and i'm not blending china today. we, we've seen them at least put on the offer of these kinds of swap line from their central bank. it's not clear yet if the terms of that offer are flexible enough for countries to make use of them, sri lanka was one case where there was a swap line open with china. but the, you know,
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the prudential standards of that arrangement were too, too rigid in a way that trail longer could not make use of it before the default. scott morris could to get your perspective. thank you. my pleasure. now the race to green energy is going too fast for some oil rich developing nations. nigeria is africa's biggest export of oil, and it isn't ready to let go. it's huge reserves that have fueled its consumption and economic growth for more than half a century. and as many dream reports from port hawk or this off shall rig pumps, oil and gas off the coast of nigeria. for more than 60 years, petroleum has been the pillar of its economy. and for men, here live without oil, is simply unimaginable. we know for sure that even by 2050 i wasn't for i was still account for my 50 percent of energy and production into would not be that wasn't well is not going to go away, but of going to be combative too much martina enough well and that's is really our
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focus. petroleum contributes more than half of nigeria budget, and more than 90 percent of its forwarding. it's jeff jennings, expert, se ditching. it could devastate the economy. the world banks has 9 years dependence on oil is greater than that of many other major producers. more than half of africa, 1300000000 people have no access to power. here in the area, the figure is more than 45 percent of which is the us and they want to increase access to electricity as personally by holding the countries. portland gases also encourage growth. industry expos, say africa's oil will still find the ready market on the continent, even if the rest of the world shuts its doors, africa needs energy. we are not selling energy outside because we don't need it. we are selling energy also because we, i miss, we have misplaced priorities. nigeria wants to be seen as playing it to pot in reducing global warming. 2 years ago,
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the government declared print to $20.00 to 2030 as a decayed of gas, a 10 year period to shift focus from oil, and more to natural gas as a clean transition fuel. but that doesn't mean the country will abandon it's 37000000000 barrels of crude oil reserves. altogether a kenya is making major changes to its energy supply system. the country is now harvesting geothermal, steam consultants on the projects they were cut, greenhouse gas emissions. but also i left millions of people out of poverty. catherine, so i reports from the all cardiac power plants in neva, blast of immense heat dot dozens of vents in the great rift valley. the steam is so hot, you can boil an egg in it to appreciate the power of this heat. there is no, we're better to look the north west of kenya's capital nairobi. this energy is
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coming from the off and it's essentially limitless. anom warranty is exploring for new geothermal drill sites for the country's electricity generating company. it is producing $962.00 megawatts of power, but could do a great deal more, santi, se harnessing geothermal power for electricity is simple. their theme from the ground is one if i know of in a steam line and the steam lines end up in up our place. and that steam, of course, it is separated where the liquid face ice, the can injected back into the ground. and the steam dry steam is thick into a power plant and runs at out by generating electricity can yet derives most of its energy from clean sources. it has some of the world's largest geothermal wealth and plants. it is also the largest producer of wind and geothermal energy on the
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continent. i think africa stands out now as a viable option to bring about a change so that africa will make the, the necessary contribution to greeny, the environment. and that's why you find major economies having an interest in, in kenya, specifically. and in africa, basically, to hurry vos, the effects of what is happening elsewhere. you can, francis karaoke was recently connected to the greed through a rural electrification program. so sat on them longer. now we have light, we also have fewer cases of test at night, but there are still people in darkness. we need to light up the entire village. in most parts, people are now enjoying the benefits of renewable energy. many kenyans are connected to the national green, while others have installed us system. the government says it wants to ensure every
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home has electricity in the next 10 years. the idea is, and it's school is not just to live top the country, but the whole continent. and that is our show for this week run by you can get in touch with us by tweeting me as has a speaker, and to use the hash tag a see to see when you do or drop us an email, counting the cost at as just the dot net is our address, as well for you online at edges d n a dot com slash ctc. that'll take you straight to a page which has individual report links, an entire episode for you to catch up on that is it for this edition of counting, the cost hasn't seek from the whole team. yes, thanks for joining us. the news on it is next. the indonesia, your investment destination, the world's 10th largest economy,
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is busy transforming, ready to beat your business, partner with a robust talent pool, politically and economically stable and strong policies. being the power house, indonesia is confirmed by the g. 20 presidency. bringing opportunities for you in vest indonesia, now france once had a vast empire, spending several continents. but by the 1940s, the french were forced to confront reality and demands that dependence. in the 1st part of the documentary series al jazeera looks at how the colonial unrest grew conflict in algeria and full scale war and indo china blood and tears french. the colonization on al jazeera ah.


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