tv Business Live BBC News December 30, 2016 3:30am-4:01am GMT
in response to evidence that hackers tried to subvert the us presidential election. the us also says american diplomats have been harassed in moscow. kremlin offcials say they will retaliate. president—elect trump has said it's "time to move on, to bigger and better things." but nevertheless, he said, in the interests of the us he will meet intelligence chiefs next week, to be updated on the facts of this situation. a partial ceasefire in syria has come into effect in the past few hours. president putin, who helped broker it, says the warring parties have declared their readiness to start peace talks. but he described the agreements as "fragile". extremists from the so—called islamic state and the group formerly known as the nusra front are not covered by the truce. now on bbc news, it's time for business live review 2016. this is business live, from bbc news. as 2016 draws to a close, we are going to look back on a year
which featured two events which will shape the global economy for decades to come. welcome to business live‘s review of 2016, with aaron heslehurst and maryam moshiri. yep, this year saw the uk take that momentous decision to leave the european union. we are going to take a look at what lies in store for the next 12 months. and he did it. the billionaire businessman donald trump wins the race for the white house. he has made some bold announcements, but was it all talk and no action? and, of course, it has been a turbulent year for the global market. oil prices hit that historic low. there is light at the end of the tunnel, of course, following a landmark deal between members of the 0pec countries. and exploding phones, driverless
cars, and virtual reality. it has been an eventful 12 months in the world of tech, but what can we look forward to in 2017? we will speak to our resident gadget guru, rory cellan—jones. and, indeed, a very warm welcome to a very special edition of business live. this year saw two of the biggest political results of the decade, as the recent trend towards globalisation kind of took a step back. there are now dark clouds of uncertainty hanging over two of the world's biggest economies, europe and the united states. so let's start by taking a look back at what happened following the uk's decision to leave the european union. tonight at 10:00pm, the voters decide that, after four decades, it is time for britain to leave the european union. i do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination.
across asia today we have seen shares fall on the major markets, like japan's nikkei, down more than 7%. now look what happened. it tumbled down to levels not seen since the 1980s. many people in the financial markets caught, perhaps, unawares by this decision. brexit means brexit, and we are going to make a success of it. it is a victory against the big merchant banks, against the big businesses, and against big politics. at the end of the day, jamie dunham, jp morgan, goldman sachs, have a good holiday. because i will give you a clue, guys. you will be back. we are joined by economics editor kamal ahmed. we sought brexit back in the summer. we are looking ahead to 2017. where do we stand in terms of uk negotiations? everything looks so uncertain, doesn't it? i think the phoney war will come to an end. 0bviously britain voted to leave the european union injune,
and actually, the practicalities of that will start next year. so the british government wants to spark what is called article 50, that starts the process of exit, by the end of march. that is a two—year process, so that process should be completed, we think, by 2019. i think their are tensions on both sides. in britain, there are tensions between those who want what is called a hard brexit, fully out of the single market, out of the customs union, able to sign trade deals around the world itself, with no reference to the european union, and those that want a softer brexit, still having preferential access to the single market, possibly still in the customs union. that is a tension on one side. 0n the european side, the 27 other member states, there are tensions between those who want to ensure that britain doesn't get a better deal by coming out of the european union, politically unpalatable as that is. but also, britain is the second—largest economy in europe. they don't want to set up trade barriers such that the european economy itself suffers by losing the british market. and of course, london, the city, is one of the global leading financial centres.
europe needs the city to fund its own businesses. indeed it does. talking of financials, let's bring up the board, because i want to talk about that. we can bring it up, because i want to talk about the ftse and the pound. this is how they ended as of the 21st of december. everyone talked about how, if there was a vote for brexit, we would see that pound plunge. exactly, investors would think that assets in the uk may be less valuable in the future, so that money would be better employed on the european continent, and frankly in america, and so the pound has fallen in value. i think what is interesting, and maybe slightly more surprising,
is how good equities have been, and the markets have been. i think, in a way, although brexit is incredibly important, politically and economically, the fundamentals haven't changed that much yet. and so equities are still very attractive, because of the hyper—low interest rates, very loose monetary policy, no signal yet from britain, really, the central bank in the uk or the central bank in europe, that interest rates are going to rise anytime soon, and certainly not quickly. so the equities run has been very powerful. of course, a lot of those equities in the ftse, the london market, are companies that are global. the profits are in dollars. and so, as sterling falls, their profits actually — yes, their actual profits are then sparked upwards. so you get to a situation where those equities are doing rather well. so you have this sort of clash. eequities positive, sterling having a tough time. you touched on europe, the european project. how is it looking, going into 2017? again, brexit is important, but i wouldn't suggest it is the most important thing
going on in europe in 2017. you have elections in the netherlands, you have elections in france, you have elections in germany, and each of those elections will be a big test about the kind of europe that the voters in europe want. a reformed europe. they still have higher levels of unemployment, problems with growth. what types of europe? will people who support the project win those elections, or will people who want to rip up the project, and cause more tension in europe, and possibly split up the european union, will they win? it's going to be a fascinating year. we are going to wrap it up, but let's put the cards on the table. could we see a european shock, like we have seen brexit, and the election of donald trump? all the polls — i know we have to be very careful. all the polls suggest not. but at the end of 2017, what might be described as the establishment parties have put themselves back at the centre of europe. the european project is incredibly important to the european governments, at the end of 2017,
but the polls suggest that they look more victorious than those who want to break up the european union. one thing we learnt this year was, don't listen to the polls! kamal ahmed, thank you for your time this year. happy new year. thank you, and to you. the uk's decision to leave the european union certainly surprised the markets, but investors didn't have to wait long for the next upset. he did it. the billionaire businessman donald trump swept to power, in certainly one of the most divisive political campaigns in living memory. let's take a look back at some of those highlights. right now, 92 million americans are on the sideline, outside of the workforce, and they are not a part of our economy. it is a silent nation ofjobless americans. donald was one of the people who rooted the housing crisis. he said, back in 2006, gee, i hope it does collapse, because then i can go in and buy some, and make money.
well, it did collapse. that is called business. 9 million people. we will build the wall, 100%, and mexico will be paying for the wall. just imagine how many more automobile jobs will be lost if the tpp is actually approved. it will be catastrophic. we can't continue to allow china to rape our country, and that is what they are doing. donald] trump, the billionaire property developer, with no previous experience of public office, is the 45th president of the united states. companies are not going to leave the united states anymore, without consequence. it is not going to happen, it's not going to happen. 0ur number one priority is going to be the economy,
getting back to 3%—4% growth, we believe that is very sustainable, and focus on things for the american worker. that is absolutely our priority. nice, thunderous music there. i love it, i love the drama. pippa malmgren, a former white house adviser, is here to add to the drama. and pippa, you did it. you picked brexit and you picked trump. when you want to talk about the economics, trump's vision for the economy, this is what we have been hearing day in and out over the last couple of weeks. the team that he is building, what do you make of it? the last one was mr navarro, who wrote one of his books, death by china. yes, exactly.
one thing that is interesting, he's picking people with very different points of view. they will have a cabinet which actually argues, which may not be a bad thing. they are going to have debates and proper punch—ups about what is the right direction to go. so that is one thing. second thing, the establishment is very upset about all these new people, because they are not. the electorate said i want the establishment out, i want something new in, something that looks after my interest more. that is what i think they are going to deliver. it is kind of — i think someone described it as bonfire of the agencies. trump has been brought in to literally burn the house down and start again, reconstruct this thing. and washington was overgrown, in many ways. so will there be accidents along the way? look, every president makes mistakes, so we are going to see those, for sure. but, on the other hand, the upside here may be greater than people expect, just because they don't like him personally. but the markets are going to like his policies. we have seen that with the dow, haven't we?
the wild card, though, is trade, and the trade policy, and whether that is going to harm growth in the future. what is your take on that? so again, i suspect... i don't know, these are my personal views, but i think that there is a lot of bluster about trade policy. but, in the end, what they want to do is sell more american goods, have better—quality imports. so the end goal is to actually have trade, theyjust won't use that word. we will hear "free trade" less and less. we will hear more things like "smart business." but does it really mean something profoundly different? maybe not. because they are saying, you can't see the us as an island, it can'tjust act as an island. it has to trade in the world. it does, although to be fair, less than 2% of us gdp depends on exports, so as a nation we are incredibly lucky. we can be an engine, even if the rest of the world isn't growing very well. trade is are relatively small part our economy, compared to most others.
so that is something to keep in mind. good to talk to you, pippa. thank you very much indeed. still to come, exploding phones, driverless cars, and virtual reality. it has all been a very eventful 12 months in the world of tech. but what can we look forward to in 2017? we are going to find out, we will speak to the guru, rory cellan—jones. you are watching business live, from bbc news. throughout the show we have been hearing about how the events of 2016 are set to shake the business landscape for years to come. 2017 is set to be a busy year. the bbc‘s theo leggett has a timeline of key events in the next 12 months. in january, president—elect donald trump enters the white house. 0nlookers will be keen to see if he follows through with plans to restrict trade and inject hundreds of billions of dollars into the us economy. fast—forward a couple of months
and we will see the first big development in the brexit story. the uk prime minister says she will trigger article 50 by the end of march. this is when britain can start formal negotiations with the european union, and we may begin to see what the new relationship could look like in years to come. this is, of course, crucial to the future of the eu project. france is one other country which will be paying close attention. the far—right candidate marine le pen is riding high on anti—establishment sentiment which is sweeping the globe. she is a staunch eurosceptic, so there could be bad news for brussels if she is voted into power. in germany, it is a similar picture. recent events have seen chancellor angela merkel come under fire for her open—door migrant policy. the public could go to the polls as early as august 27. the german leader has seen a steady decline in her popularity ratings over the last few years. if 2016 is anything to go by,
the next 12 months could be very interesting indeed. let's take a look at how the markets have fared over the course of the year, starting with stocks in europe. take a look. the sterling—to—dollar, the quid down 16%, pretty much as expected. but the ftse is up some 13%. the european markets also gained. in germany, in frankfurt, the dax, just over 9%. not a bad year. this is up until december the 20th. you call it the quid, i call it the squid. i do. let's do us markets now. in terms of the dowjones, we have seen a rise of around 15% this year. investors perhaps anticipating donald trump will follow through with his trillion dollar spending plan. that could end up providing a boost to many major american companies who, let's admit it, they need it now. it is borrow and build, but maybe they don't need to borrow. a lot of investors may throw their money into infrastructure programmes. who knows? hello.
you are watching business live, review 2016. events of the past 12 months have made for a turbulent year in global markets. at the turn of the year, the price of the black stuff, oil, was already at its lowest point for a decade. this had investors wondering whether the market could get any lower. injanuary, iran returned to international markets following the lifting of western sanctions, and crude fell below $28 per barrel. but this proved to be short—lived. in the first half of the year, the market rallied as some of that oversupply left the market, if you will. in september, some of the world's leading oil—producing nations managed to reach a landmark agreement for the first time in over eight years. members of the 0pec cartel struck a deal to limit production. initially, the market had it doubts that the deal would hold, but after iran and saudi arabia agreed to resolve their differences, the oil price surged once more.
ian reid is a senior oil and gas equity analyst. he's an expert for the bank macquarie, a good aussie institution. that is the key. what we just said there — they have all agreed, but will they stick to that? compliance is always the key on these things. they have not done it for awhile. but what encourages the market is that the core countries of 0pec, the gulf countries — arabia, uae, kuwait — they make up more than half of the cut, and they will comply. they have to comply given the budget constraints in their home countries. we think most of the rest of the countries will comply to some degree. some countries may be tempted by the slightly higher oil price to increase supply and produce more and make more money. it has been hard going for countries, especially in south america and some african countries. yes, and also libya and nigeria are coming out of a depressed position.
they will be allowed to increase. there will be some cheating, but i think there will be quite a lot of compliance with this. when we finally saw that announcement — we'd been talking about it for days, weeks, in the lead up — they have finally made this agreement, but they cut at record levels. russia was producing more than 11 million a day, something like that. will it really make a huge difference? demand is also increasing. lower prices equals that it is cheaper, so demand growth has been good. how long will that last now prices are rising? unless there is a recession in the west, i think we will see a decent amount of demand growth. it will increase the wiggle room some of the 0pec countries have. the us is also producing a lot of the world's oil at the moment. the worry is with higher prices, they'll produce even more. the americans, right? the fracas because they'll come into it once the price... they'll make money.
they will shut production when the prices go too low, but they can switch it on pretty quickly? there is a finite limit to that, to be honest. with a bit of compliance and demand growth, i think the oil price will reach $60. next year? it is $55 now, so we're not that far away. look at the chart. brent crude up 46.8% in 2016. what are your predictions for 2017? as i say, over $60 in 2017. but no $100 mark like we've seen before? unless there is a cataclysm somewhere. but don't rule that out. we have had that in the oil market over the years. but we are not forecasting that. a nice, smooth path back up to $70. we will have you back next year to work out if you were right. we have put you on the spot. thank you forjoining us. in a moment, we will be talking tech — i love talking tech — with our gadget guru. you like talking. that's rich, coming from you! rory, i can see him in the wings.
he is hanging around in the house. he's taking photos of us, by the way. then he puts it on social media. we will take a look back at the year in social. music plays these are daft people in our office playing it. jay says, "majorly disappointed. "it changed my life for a week and then, pooof, it was gone." he says, "best phone as of this year." sidney in scotland says, "no,
i would never use a driverless taxi or driverless road vehicle. " and a viewer in india, "i would be scared to sit in one in india because it might just malfunction. " i tweeted this about five o'clock this morning and have had nothing but short, sharp, shrift response from viewers about this one. it has been a very interesting year. a little bundock appearance! 2016 certainly has been an eventful year in the world of tech. we have seen driverless taxis picking up passengers for the very first time. and of course the war
between samsung and apple reached explosive... i see what they've done there — "explosive new heights. " boom—boom. ok, let's bring him in. rory, good to see you. you have bought your gadgets in. let's start with this. see that picture? you've got one! is this the future? we said 2016 was going to be the year of virtual reality, when we saw a lot of launches. we have not seen the mass take—up yet. we are now seeing the emergence of cheaper forms of it. this is an example, a cheap headset into which you put a mobile phone. much easier to get to grips with. not as good as things like the 0culus rift and htc vive, but obviously very cheap. what does it actually do? what are you doing it for, why? you are being transported into new worlds. my experience from this... that's what it's all about. i like the world i'm living in! that is a perfectly good question. my experience is the first time somebody does this — i did it with family members, with an ageing parent the other day... did you? they are quite excited by it.
my question is whether that will last. the first experience is great, and then you do begin to say, "yeah, but what is it for?" it is all about these companies... it's all fun now, but to apply it to something. a constructive... i'm seeing more of augmented reality, putting virtual objects on a real word. the great example of that in 2016 was pokemon go, wandering around with phones catching pokemon. getting arrested for wandering around on phones. we will see more of that in 2017. microsoft has a thing called the hololens, which again, takes virtual objects and puts them on the real world. it has lots of business applications. voice control! voice control. hold on a sec — aaron, be quiet. 0k, google. it works! amazing. go0gle: happy to help. you have just spoiled my demo. i'm sorry. just be quiet, one moment. 0k. 0k, google. who is aaron heslehurst? go0gle: according to wikipedia,
aaron heslehurst is a bbc world television presenter. it got it, it got it! and this is an intelligent assistant. we will see more intelligent assistants. it then goes on to offer me questions like how old is he? we will not go onto that. we celebrated our 70th birthday, didn't we? laughter we have already seen this year the amazon echo, a voice controlled speaker, take off. you have a picture of that. then we have the google rival, google home. devices you talk to, voice becoming the new interface. we have seen it in mobile phones. this is a google mobile phone using the google smart assistant. you obviously have siri in apple devices. and you've got cortana in microsoft. those are becoming so much more sophisticated. so much smarter. for instance, when i ask, "who is aaron heslehurst?" it knows a good follow—up question — "how old is he?" that is smart artificial
intelligence at work. but what kind of people actually buy this thing? they are buying these things. these voice controlled speakers are out there. it is not so much products people are going to buy. these are things that are out there. they are in the environment. voice control is becoming a thing. this is the stuff — when we were younger, we would watch the sci—fi films and they'd be on a spaceship talking to lex, or whoever. what amazes me is how blase we are about it. in star trek, there were devices where you could speak one language and it will come out in another. we've got that! we've got them. let's talk about driverless cars. there is a lot of controversy surrounding these. it feeds into the same theme — more intelligence being built into all sorts of devices, principally cars. we have come an awful long way with driverless technology, and i am expecting more demos of that kind at the big ces show in las vegas injanuary. that sort of technology leads us into, because we have about a0 seconds left, the internet of things.
yes. i have a bunch of devices here, everything connected to the internet. doorbell rings that is a smart doorbell with a camera on it. it will identify who has come to your door, and you can let them in by smart phone. smart lighting that you can control from your mobile phone. it looks like a light bulb. ijust bought this because you said to me before i came in... drone, drones, drones! he wanted a drone. lots more drones up in the sky. guess what rory‘s doing. rory turns on his christmas tree lights via phone. via phone. you are so extra. hey, siri, turn the christmas tree lights on. we love you, in the non—biblical sense, rory, but happy new year. happy new year. thanks forjoining us. that is it from business live. thanks for watching. we'll see you in the new year. take care. bye— bye. not as much fog around england and wales as friday begins but still the potential for some dense patches. do not drop your guard just yet. still worth checking
the situation where you are, windy with rainy north—west scotland and also in the northern and western isles. it could be a bit damp and drizzly at times the east of high ground you could see occasional sunshine. 0n through friday night will to fog patches developing but nowhere near as much as we have had an recent nights. it will be a milder night and the wet and windy weather continues across the north and north—west of scotland. during new year's eve that since gradually southwards and actually buy the start of 2017 they will be pulling away from scotland and northern ireland as it becomes caught behind that but this will be pushing in two parts of england and wales as those 2017 celebrations take place. welcome to bbc news, broadcasting to our viewers in north america and around the globe. my name's mike embley. our top stories:
president 0bama expels 35 russian diplomats, accusing them of interfering in the us elections. moscow says it will retaliate. president—elect trump says it's "time to move on," but he will meet intelligence chiefs for a briefing next week. president putin declares a ceasefire deal in syria, brokered by russia and turkey. it came into effect a few hours ago. road to nowhere — why this street in a french town is causing controversy. hello. president 0bama has imposed sanctions on russian individuals