i'm kasia madera in london. the headlines: the bank of england warns that the uk could face a deep recession and a collapse in the pound if there's a no—deal brexit. the direction of the effects of the reduction in openness is clear. with lower supply capacity, weaker demand, love the exchange rate and higher inflation. -- lower exchange rate. with less than two weeks until a brexit vote in parliament, how will these forecasts affect theresa may's compromise deal? i'm rico hizon in singapore. also on the programme: not airworthy. indonesian investigators probing the lion air disaster say the plane should have been grounded after problems on earlier flights. and the world chess champion, norway's magnus ca rlsen, has retained his title after a series of rapid fire wins. live from our studios in london and singapore.
this is bbc world news. it's newsday. hello and welcome to the programme. it's 8am in singapore and midnight here in london, where the huge risk to the uk economy from brexit has been laid bare by the governor of the bank of england. according to mark carney, leaving the eu without a deal would send the pound crashing, and spark a worse recession than the financial crisis. the projection is very much a worst case scenario. but it will be seized by the prime minister's supporters. theresa may is struggling to convince mps to back her compromise deal with brussels. simonjack reports. enter brexit centrestage. a man with a warning. leaving the eu without a deal could trigger an economic crash worse than the one that followed the financial crisis. we have constructed
a worst case no deal, no transition brexit scenario, where you have a series of events including friction at the border, difficulties at ports, sharp falls in financial markets would costs more for people and businesses to borrow, a series of events that all happen at the same time. now, this is not a prediction orforecast, merely a possibility. in the bank's worst—case scenario, gdp is down 8% in one year, house prices down 30%, unemployment almost doubles to 7.5% and prices rise by 6.5%. it's in these marble halls that economists look into their crystal balls to see what could, what might happen in the future, and some scenarios are pretty grim, but the bank says
it's not here to scare us, in fact it's there to reassure us that if we get a no deal, no transition brexit creating a financial emergency, the bank will be ready. but is the real economy ready? the bank says 80% of small businesses have done no planning for a no deal scenario, an outcome this furniture maker from high wycombe would like to avoid. for us, we'd like to get on with it. a no deal would be difficult because i think it would increase the damage to consumer confidence, presumably it would damage the strength of the pound, which makes our life more expensive. and i think itjust... simplicity would be good for us. the worst case is only one unlikely scenario. others analysed include staying in the eu, the orange line at the top, staying in the eu, a trade deal similar to the one proposed by the prime minister is underneath and the no deal disorderly brexit at the bottom. remember, this bank report was requested by mps who asked a simple question —
does the bank of england think the uk will be better or worse off than it predicted before the referendum 7 in some respects it is very simple. for a period of time, if we reduce the degree to which we can trade with our largest trading partner, the economy has to undergo an adjustment. during that period of time, it is likely, all things being equal, that the economy will grow less rapidly. the government's own analysis reached a similar conclusion today, but it says that delivering brexit requires and is worth the economic compromise. simon jack, bbc news. let's take a look at some of the day's other news. indonesian investigators have said the lion air plane that crashed last month killing 189 people was not airworthy and should have been grounded. the boeing 737 crashed into the java sea shortly after departing from jakarta. a preliminary report found technical problems had been reported on previous flights, but investigators did not give a definite cause for the accident. lion air has insisted that the plane was airworthy. rebbece henschke reports.
the almost new plane crashed within minutes after takeoff. this woman's was on the flight with his cousin. translation: he was a really good kid. nothing about him was bad. now he and other grieving families have heard that the plane was not a worthy and should have been grounded today before. the head of the investigating committee told the bbc there were a number of serious technical issues with the plane on the previous flight from bali to jakarta. minimum of four problems appeared in the run flight. this, in oui’ appeared in the run flight. this, in our opinion, while the condition
occurred, the aircraft is no longer airworthy. what happened instead is after the pilot managed to land safely in jakarta, the plane took to the air again with a different pilot. information from the flight data recorder shows the pilots repeatedly fought to override an automatic safety system installed in the boeing 737 max 8 that pulled the plane's nose down. the system was responding to faulty data that suggested the plane's nose was higher than it was. the head of the investigating committee saying they had not found details in boeing's flight manual about how pilots should deal with such an about how pilots should deal with such an emergency about how pilots should deal with such an emergency situation. we haven't found the information in the manual related to the new feature of the 737 —8, or 737 max. some families have launched a legal challenge against boeing. boeing has
since warned against all airlines for addressing faulty readings, and they insist the model is as safe as any other aeroplane. any accident can be prevented. we are waiting and we're watching for that. we're watching for that, not only for ourfamily, that. we're watching for that, not only for our family, but also for indonesia, for safety and travel in indonesia, for safety and travel in indonesia, and also the world. the final report is not expected until next year. rebecca henschke, bbc news, jakarta. also making news today: the fire danger warning in the australian state of queensland has been raised to catastrophic, the highest level, for the first time. thousands of people are evacuating their homes as more than 130 bushfires threaten properties across queensland. they're being fuelled by strong winds, a heatwave and dry vegetation. at least ten people have been killed in an attack on the compound of the british security
company, gas, in kabul. 19 people were injured including children. the afghan interior ministry says gunmen stormed the complex after a car bomb was detonated outside. the taliban says it carried out the attack. a chinese scientist who claims to have created the world's first genetically edited babies has defended his work. speaking at a genome summit in hong kong, hejiankui said he was proud of altering the genes of twin girls so they could not contract hiv, but his work has not been verified. us senators have strongly criticised the absence of the cia director at a senate hearing on relations with saudi arabia. the us secretary of state, mike pompeo, and defence secretary jim mattis, gave evidence, but gina haspel did not. one democratic senator described the non—appearance of gina haspel, who's heard audio of the murder of jamal khashoggi, as a cover—up. the duke and duchess of cambridge have paid tribute to the five people killed in a helicopter crash at leicester city's ground. william and kate laid flowers and met leicester city players, as well as the family
of the club's thai owner, vichai srivaddhanaprabha. he died with four others when the helicopter came down in october. now to the annual event which helps to ring in the christmas holiday season in the us. it's that time when the national christmas tree is officially lit in washington. isn't it beautiful and so colourful? president trump and his wife melania were present for the festivities, along with hundreds of others who came to the white house for the event which has been running for 96 years. let's get more on our top story, the warnings from the bank of england that there could be a deep recession in britain if it leaves the european union without a withdrawal agreement
or transition period. the british prime minister theresa may will be hoping the analysis puts pressure on the dozens of members of parliament who right now say they won't support her deal with the eu. i asked bbc‘s uk westminster correspondent, nick eardley, if the bank of england's worst case scenario might actually help theresa may in some way. well, yes, because it allows her to turn round and said two members of her own party, and members of other parties too, if you try and block my deal, if you stop this getting through, you are risking a situation in which the uk economy could tank. that's exactly what the bank of england are warning today. it was what was in some uk government papers that were published this morning as well. it suggested that no deal is the worst of all worlds are considerably worse for the economy will than what the prime minister is suggesting. i must say, from hanging out in parliament
tonight and from speaking to some of the brexiteers who've been extremely dismissive of her plan, that equally dismissive of her plan, that equally dismissive of her plan, that equally dismissive of what the bank of england is saying tonight. they quite simply don't believe these worst—case scenario quite simply don't believe these worst—case scenario predictions. one of the leaders of the brexit campaign, jacob rees—mogg, told me that project fear had got even worse and was now turning into project hysteria. in fact he launched a pretty personal attack on the bank of england governor, mark carney as well, saying that he is a second rate canadian failed politician. i wouldn't expect this would suddenly turned the numbers in theresa may's favour. she's also worried that on the other hand, those that want a closer relationship with the european union than the one she's proposing, are going to say, well, actually, according to some of these analyses, if you stay in the european union the economy will be better of. the uk chancellor was
admitting pretty much that this morning. yes, this will in some ways aged theresa may as she tries to strong arm some of those wavering within her own party, and perhaps on opposition benches too, but many of the positions in the parliament are really entrenched, and they're not going to change overnight. nick, briefly, would you, as i from snipes at mark carney, in terms of between now and the vote itself, on thursday we're going to hear about the security situation. we're going to keep hearing about different aspects of what could happen and the spin will be in favour of supporting theresa may's brexit deal. yes, i can theresa may's brexit deal. yes, i ca n safely theresa may's brexit deal. yes, i can safely assure you that there will be a uk political story on brexit between now and the big vote on an element of december. theresa may is currently touring the uk, trying to win people over, saying this is the best deal on the table, it helps the economy and delivers on what brexit promised people. g has a
huge mountain to climb to do that. there are dozens of her own mps saying they won't vote for it. none of the opposition parties at the moment are signed up to coming to her rescue. so getting that boat through on the 11th of december is a gargantuan task and at the moment, anything can happen in uk politics at the moment. if recent history's taught us anything it's that nothing's off the table, but getting that deal through is a big ask. westminster colleague nick eardley beating earlier to kasia. —— speaking. every year, thousands of young people from across the world head to australia to look for work as au pairs. but new research says too often they are being ripped—off, treated poorly by host families, and can be fired with just a day's notice. our sydney correspondent, hywel griffith, has been finding out more. being an au pair means you've often got your hands full. but for riley
from england, working in australia has, at times, been overwhelming. she feels happy and included with her current family, but says others have treated her like a house—mate on the cheap, leaving her isolated farfrom home. i felt the help, farfrom home. ifelt the help, like, theyjust needed an extra pair of hands, not, like, oh, we want someone to live with us and look after our kid. we didn't communicate face—to—face, and the overtaxed, and when they came home they would take him and, like, go. the au pair system is meant to bea go. the au pair system is meant to be a cultural exchange, looking after a family's children in return for experiencing new country. australia's reputation of sun, sand and surf brings young people from around the world here looking for work. and, in theory, being an au paircan bea work. and, in theory, being an au pair can be a really good deal, a roof over your head and regular income. leaving plenty of time to enjoy all this. but for another riley, who is from the us, it was
farfrom rewarding. riley, who is from the us, it was far from rewarding. i felt like there was a lot of exploitation because having an au pair is cheaper than putting your kids in childcare in australia. because you live under their roof, you have no choice but to do what they're asking you. au pairs pays the same problems as many other backpackers, like fruit pickers, with evidence of exploitation and underpayment. ourfindings show most exploitation and underpayment. our findings show most families were taking advantage of a large supply of working holidaymakers to actually get cheap house making services as well. the lack of effective regulation has also caused a start power inbalances between families and au pairs and. for instance, of the au pairs asked to leave early, fully a third were only given a day's noticed or less to leave the home when they were found out. australia doesn't have a specific visa for au pairs, which means less regulation and no way of knowing exactly how many there are. industry bodies and said changes needed, but
stress most au pairs do have a good time. overwhelmingly, au pairs are happy with the experience. a family engages with an au pair, au pair shares their culture, that's cultural exchange. it's very hard to measure currently, but we know it happens in most cases. we can stay, we will stay and look at the ducks then. for riley, life in australia hasn't been what she hoped for. her warning to others is to do your research before you leave home. hywel griffith, bbc news, sydney. you're watching newsday on the bbc. still to come on the programme: feeling stressed out with not enough hours in the day? we'll be hearing from a scientist working to find a solution. also on the programme: after 12 draws in 12 games, world chess champion magnus carlsen retains his title after a rapid—chess tie—breaker. president kennedy was shot down and died almost immediately.
the murder ofjohn kennedy is a disaster for the whole free world. he caught the imagination of the world. the first of a new generation of leaders. margaret thatcher is resigning as leader of the conservative party and prime minister. before leaving number 10 to see the queen, she told her cabinet, "it's a funny old world." angela merkel is germany's first woman chancellor, easily securing the majority she needed. attempts to fly a hot air balloon had to be abandoned after a few minutes, but nobody seemed to mind very much. as one local comic put it, "it's not hot air we need, it's hard cash." cuba has declared nine days of mourning following the death of fidel castro at the age of 90. castro developed close ties with the soviet union in the 1960s. it was an alliance that brought the world to the brink of nuclear war with the cuban missile crisis. this is newsday on the bbc.
i'm rico hizon in singapore. i'm kasia madera in london. our top stories: the bank of england has warned that leaving the european union without a deal could hit the british economy harder than the financial crisis a decade ago. a preliminary report into last month's deadly indonesian plane crash has found that the jet involved was not airworthy. a serious papal security breach. a young argentinian boy broke free of his mother's clutches to play with pope francis and one of his guards during a vatican audience, much to the pope's delight. i love that
story. let's take a look at some front pages from around the world. starting here in the uk with the financial times, which leads on the two stark reports today that brexit may leave the country worse off. it calls the forecasts made by the bank of england "blood cu rdling" and reports on the prime minister's acknowledgment that all options could leave the uk worse off. the japan times focuses on the country's foreign labour bill which is moving through to the upper house. the bill is expected to allow blue—collar workers in certain sectors to move to the country, but japan's opposition party has said the bill lacks detail. and singapore's straits times features its asians of the year award, honouring those who put their lives in danger to help others following natural disasters. this year's winner is a late singaporean paraglider recognised for his rescue work after the indonesian earthquake. so you up—to—date with the papers.
now, how's your morning routine going? feeling a little rushed? for people smack in the frenzied mid—life rush of managing full—time careers, dependent children, and aging parents, nothing feels like it's in short supply as much as time. but don't worry — there is a way to get it all done, apparently. just delay starting full—time work until you're 40, and retire by 80. professor carlson told me what it involved. the story here is that we we re involved. the story here is that we were handed a gift of time by our a ncestors were handed a gift of time by our ancestors on the 20th century. essentially with no strings attached, an extra 30 years. and we need to think seriously about how best to use those years. it is right now we have a deadline. 65 years old and we have to retire. right. just
as you were saying, if you ask people today what their biggest challenges, most people say it is time. there isn't enough time. and i say, we've got 30 extra years. we have more time than any generation is proceeding us. because men and women can live past their 80s. so why should we be in a hurry? why should we, right, exactly. but also, the way we are living our lives is based on life expectancy is half as long. the culture that guides us through life was based on a life expectancy of about a7. and that means you have to sprint through life. you get an education. you marry. you have a couple of kids and you work like a dog, you get to retire and euro —— you are dead a couple of years later. now we have so much more time, but what we are still doing is packing everything in early and then having long leash at times at the end of life. neither model is good. —— leisure time at
the end of life. i plan to follow the end of life. i plan to follow the template of my father, to work and never retire, even in my 80s or 90s. what about people in their 50s and 60s? what about education? can they still go back to school? absolutely. we need to rethink all domains of life. if we are going to working to 80s and 90s it makes no sense to finish education in our early 20s. it is good for you to learn. we need to continue to learn. employers can play a role in that with on—the—job training and education, but universities need to rethink the populations they serve. and to begin to include older people in their programmes. the world number one norwegian, magnus carlsen, has retained his world chess championship title, beating us opponent fabiano caruana in a tie—breaker event. carlsen's victory, decided in three dramatic time—limited games, ended the american's hopes of becoming the first us champion since bobby fischer won in 1972. the showdown in london followed a record—breaking streak of 12 drawn games of regular chess.
our sports news correspondent richard conway reports from the championship. they will be dancing in the streets of oslo tonight, because magnus carlsen has retained his world chess title. the norwegian won over fabiano caroline are, his challenger. —— caruano. he was aiming to be the first americans as bobby fischer in 1972 to win the world championship. but carlsen proved too strong in the tie—break games, rapidfire games against the clock, and that was all due, and needed, because the first three weeks of this championship resulted ini2 tight weeks of this championship resulted in 12 tight games. it tookjust over three hours for the title to be resolved, carlsen showing why he is the number one in the rapid form of the number one in the rapid form of the game, and despatching the american inefficient style. he of
course will now cement his position as the number one player in chess. he is already the rockstar, the poster boy of the sport. he has been a guest star on the simpsons, he has got fashion contracts, he is friends with hollywood a—lister is. he will go on from this surely to more fame and fortune. so the position here is that carlsen wins yet again, and he is still the world champion. well, let's hearfrom the man himself — world number one magnus carlsen. this one is huge for me. fabiano played very well, he is an extremely strong player. so it is very special for me, for sure. clearly this time it was a very close. fabiano was very strong. and the match, although iam very very strong. and the match, although i am very happy that taiwan, it shows i have a lot to work on still. and you know, the next time i have
to raise my level again further. congratulations to magnus carlsen. to raise my level again further. congratulations to magnus carlsenlj am going to challenge magnus. watch out for me. i bet he is watching and he is worried. you have been watching newsday. i'm cassia madeira in london. and i am rico hizon in singapore. we will be talking about the wall street rally overnight, the dowjones surging 600 points after the fed hinted that rate hikes might slow. we will see how that impacts the asian markets. we will see you soon. the asian markets. we will see you soon. i have a great story, for every family, and out in gender of your baby is eight the moment. one couple in arizona thought they would do it with a bang. watch this. now, that blue powder released by the explosion indicates a boy, but that fire them cause an awful lot of damaged. —— then caused. it burned for weeks. the advice is, don't do this at home. hello there. the atlantic is set to
be pretty relentless in terms of —— in terms of telling spells of wet and windy weather alloway in coming days. this hook of cloud is the speu days. this hook of cloud is the spell of windy weather and rain that we had on wednesday. the flow centre rolling away, this one developing quite explosively as well to the south—west as we go through the early pa rt south—west as we go through the early part of thursday, promises even stronger winds than we saw yesterday and some very heavy rain. certainly not looking great for the morning rush—hour. there will be a risk of some disruption and bbc local radio is a great place to to get the details were you. this is what that which will look like, however. six o'clock, pretty much just about everywhere seeing some rain at this stage. on the plus side it isa rain at this stage. on the plus side it is a mild start, temperatures in double figures. through the morning the wettest weather will start to push north pretty quickly. the strong winds will remain an issue, i think if you are out in the morning,
especially across the western side of the uk. around the coast and across the hills, these are the guts to strengthen the black circles. you can see 50,60, to strengthen the black circles. you can see 50, 60, may be 70 miles to strengthen the black circles. you can see 50,60, may be 70 miles an hour off the coast of russia. the stronger winds as well, pushing further north into northern england and the south—east of scotland as the morning goes on. as a rough rule of thumb, 50 or 60 as possiblejust about anywhere towards the west, in exposure we could be talking 70 or a little bit more. rain pushing north to quickly through the morning. many areas actually seeing a great improvement come the afternoon. quite a few showers packing into the west and the north—east of scotland, keeping the rain until the end of the day. a mild story ends to the aircoming infrom the day. a mild story ends to the air coming in from the south—west, i3 air coming in from the south—west, 13 or ia as air coming in from the south—west, i3 oria as a air coming in from the south—west, 13 or ia as a high. quite a few showers around in western exposures through thursday evening. low pressure stays in charge. it is what is feeding on those showers. it sta rts is feeding on those showers. it starts to change that orientation slightly on friday, bringing in the airfrom the slightly on friday, bringing in the air from the north—west, slightly on friday, bringing in the airfrom the north—west, and slightly on friday, bringing in the air from the north—west, and that will be a slightly cooler direction.
still some showers thanks to that western exposure on friday, but for many, a much quieter day. yes, still easy, but nothing like the winds of thursday. many areas could escape with a dry day, temperatures a couple of degrees down on those we see on thursday. onto the weekend. another couple of these areas of low pressure look like they are going to head our way. the question is, will they be around in the daytime or come rolling in overnight? at the moment it looks like some of the wettest weather could be first thing on saturday and sunday. as the day goes on we could see increasing amounts of sunshine, but stay tuned to keep up—to—date with the detail for your weekend weather. i'm kasia madera with bbc news. our top story: a no—deal brexit could trigger a serious recession in the uk, according to the bank of england.
the warning comes after the british government's own forecasts said the economy will shrink for every brexit scenario compared to staying in the eu. indonesian investigators probing last month's lion air disaster say the plane was not airworthy. 189 people were killed when the jet crashed into the java sea shorly after take off from jakarta. and this video is trending on bbc.com. the pope's weekly address featured a surprise guest when a small boy ran onto the stage. the child amused worshippers and the pontiff alike as he ran around, before his mother came to retrieve him. that's all. stay with bbc world news. now on bbc news, it's time for hardtalk.