tv BBC Business Live BBC News June 19, 2019 8:30am-9:01am BST
this is business live from bbc news with maryam moshiri and sally bundock. global trade tensions, slowing growth and gee—political uncertainty — it's rattling the rationale of the world's top central bankers. live from london, that's our top story on wednesday 19thjune. today, the us federal reserve — later this week the bank ofjapan and the bank of england — all deciding on the cost of borrowing as they focus on keeping their economic engines from stalling. also in the programme... talking trade — president trump says he's had a "very good" chat with chinese
leader xijinping on the phone, a good precursor for next week's 620 summit injapan. and the markets are open and, as you can see, they are looking flat. and we'll be getting the inside track on clean cosmetics. we care about what we eat, but what about the stuff we put on ourface? we will find up about the make up dos and don'ts. and did you watch the bbc leadership debate last night? we would like to know, what did you make of the candidates? are you confident one of them could steer the uk economy and the uk out of europe? get in touch, use the hashtag bbc biz live. hello and welcome to business live. we start with global trade tensions and geo—political uncertainty.
it's playing on the minds of the world's top central bankers this week. the most important — the us central bank — will tell us later today if it plans to cut the cost of borrowing to shelter its economy from the fallout. this week, the us federal reserve, bank ofjapan and bank of england all tell us the direction of rates. while the european central bank, which met on tuesday, said it's willing to cut rates or launch more stimulus if needed. as tensions rattle the global economy, central banks around the world are moving toward looser policy to keep their economic engines chugging along. in australia, russia, india and chile, central bank bosses recently lowered rates. the cost of borrowing has become political — and the us president has hit out at the ecb boss mario draghi, who stressed he's ready to boost the flagging eurozone. trump said it would weaken the euro against the dollar, unfairly helping european firms.
the bbc‘s samira hussain looks at the issues the us central bank will be taking into consideration. first, over to you sally. with us now is candice bangsund, portfolio manager for fiera capital. good morning. so, where are you on what the fed might do today and then maybe injuly? what the fed might do today and then maybe in july? lots of speculation about the meeting today and i think the fed is going to have to be very careful in its message so as not to spook the markets, there are lots of dovish expectations going into the meeting today, so they will have to strike a fine balance between acknowledging the risk out there and the willingness and readiness to act if necessary, but without succumbing to what the market is pricing right now. and the market is pricing in a cut injuly? now. and the market is pricing in a cut in july? fully priced forjuly until the 2023 rate cuts, which in oui’ until the 2023 rate cuts, which in our view is quite aggressive,
considering the us fundamental economy is quite sound. and will he be trying to keep across the trade discussions that will happen next week injapan? discussions that will happen next week in japan? i think that is part of the rationale, for remaining sideline today, it is waiting to see the outcome of the trade discussions that are going to take place later this month and then having the option, if needed, to move should they deteriorate. what about the politics of all of this? last night, president trump launched his re—election campaign in florida and he was asked there by a journalist what aboutjerome he was asked there by a journalist what about jerome powell? he was asked there by a journalist what aboutjerome powell? is he going to be kicked out of hisjob as head of the federal reserve? he is very vocal about the fact that he wa nts very vocal about the fact that he wants the fed to cut rates as soon as possible. the federal reserve is an independent business, right? so powell is going to be focusing on the dual mandate, the fundamentals of it all, the fact that the economy is in good shape and inflation, while subdued, is still stabilised,
so while subdued, is still stabilised, soi while subdued, is still stabilised, so i think that taken together should allow the fed to remain on the sidelines for now. and what is your long—term outlook for the world was my biggest economy? you have mentioned that markets are pricing in three rate cuts between now and the end of 2020. where are you in this whole debate about how weak or strong the us is? it all comes at a very interesting time when the global economy and the us economy are infairly global economy and the us economy are in fairly good shape. the consumer in the us, which makes up two thirds of the us economy, labour trends are very positive, wages are on the rise, unemployment at rock bottom levels, so we are actually quite constructive on the state of the us economy. what does that mean, you are constructive? it means we are positive. to what extent you think it might grow? we think it is going to grow in line with its trend. we are not going to see the 396 trend. we are not going to see the 3% consistently, things are going to roll over, fiscal stimulus will be coming out of the equation in the coming out of the equation in the coming year as well but still very much growing in line with its
potential, which is enough to place a floor under inflation and send rates higher. thank you very much for your time and expertise and when we hear from the for your time and expertise and when we hearfrom the fed, we will for your time and expertise and when we hear from the fed, we will make sure we update you. let's take a look at some of the other stories making the news. and the head of the private equity firm blackstone, stephen schwarzman, has pledged to donate £150 million — roughly $190 million — to oxford university to fund a centre for humanities. the offering is the single biggest donation in the university's history, and will also boost research into the ethics of artificial intelligence. the uk government said it was a "globally significant" investment in britain. facebook‘s ambitious plans for its own digital currency has recieved a cautious response from international lawmakers. in the us, the financial services committee called for social media giant to postpone the project, until regulators had reviewed the firm's plans. and in france, the finance minister has asked the country's central bank to assess the risks of the project. uk luxury bag maker mulberry says it made a loss last year as it took a $2.6 million hit from the collapse of department store
group house of fraser. the company, whose bags sell for around $1,000, reported a loss of $6.3 million for the year, compared with £6.9 million profit from the previous year. at the paris airshow, the latest buzz has been about british airway‘s owner iag putting its faith in boeing's about british airways owner iag putting its faith in boeing's troubled 737 max jet, despite it being grounded worldwide since two deadly crashes in the past year. 0ur correspondent theo leggettjoins us now from the paris air show. theo, talk us through exactly what ba and iag have been saying about this purchase and what the mood is about what they have done. well, it is hard to overestimate just how important this is for boeing. international airlines group has signed a letter of intent saying it wa nts to signed a letter of intent saying it wants to buy 200 737 aircraft. that
is not the same as a firm order but it would be very surprising if it rowed back on that. iag is saying it has confidence that boeing can fix the 737 max and software fixes will ultimately work, make the aircraft com pletely ultimately work, make the aircraft completely safe and enable it to be sold for many years to come. for boeing, that is incredibly important, this is its flagship aircraft. it has a backlog of about 5,500 aircraft. a400 of aircraft. it has a backlog of about 5,500 aircraft. 4400 of them are 737 maxs, so it needs to get it back in the air. it is still building 41 of them every month, so this is really important. iag says that at list prices, this would be worth about $24 billion but we know willie walsh isa $24 billion but we know willie walsh is a savvy executive. really, he can call the shots at the moment and he says he has negotiated a substantial discount, i think it is probably very substantial indeed. theo in paris at the airshow, thank you very much. let's talk some more about the story we have mentioned already, the
us president says he has a very good telephone conversation with chinese leader xi jinping telephone conversation with chinese leader xijinping on telephone conversation with chinese leader xi jinping on tuesday. and their trade talks would continue at next week's g20 summit injapan. the news sent financial markets higher. monica miller is in our asian business help. it is what markets have been waiting to hear and we really saw the asian markets, for example, bounce higher. yes, in fa ct, example, bounce higher. yes, in fact, asian shares hit a week highs as investors a re fact, asian shares hit a week highs as investors are just hoping that this protracted trade war may finally come to an end. today, we saw the shanghai blue chips rose about1.9%, saw the shanghai blue chips rose about 1.9%, that is a six peak. japan‘s nikkei got1.8 about 1.9%, that is a six peak. japan‘s nikkei got 1.8 while australia added 1.1 to its highest in11 australia added 1.1 to its highest in 11 years. this is also to do with the rba yesterday saying a rate cut was imminent. investors are showing that potential confidence in this
may actually happen, president donald trump as you mentioned said that he had a very good discussion with his counterpart, chinese president xijinping with his counterpart, chinese president xi jinping and with his counterpart, chinese president xijinping and he with his counterpart, chinese president xi jinping and he said the two sides would restart these trade talks after a long lull in order to prepare for the meeting at the g20 summit later this month in japan. monica, thank you very much indeed. let's ta ke monica, thank you very much indeed. let's take you through what the asian and european markets are doing. in terms of the asian markets, we saw a bit of a rally, the nikkei closing up. this is after donald trump described telephone talks with chinese premier xi jinping is very good and he talked about them continuing talks. the dowjones, the dow jones, that the dowjones, that is a closing figure from last night. let's move on to the european stocks, they have opened, we expected them to open higher but they are slightly lower. banks, mining stocks and auto—makers making gains. defensive stocks like consumer staples and utilities are in the red. the london market is
treading water, basically pretty flat. joining us is kathleen brooks, founder and director of minerva analysis. how are you? very good, thank you. are you keeping calm amidst all of this mayhem? are you keeping calm amidst all of this mayhem ? definitely are you keeping calm amidst all of this mayhem? definitely keeping busy! give us your take on the central bank action, we have discussed the fed but we had marie are dragging yesterday discussing that the fact —— we had draghi saying the european central bank may cut rates and trump was wading in. these are independent sovereign central banks and you have the leader of the free world saying he would like to get rid of the current fed president and get someone in more attuned to the way of his thinking, which means lower rates at the federal reserve and then basically saying the ecb are currency manipulators, which is astounding and i think the markets have done very well, considering thatis have done very well, considering that is quite an explosive event.
let's talk about japan, because we have had some pretty bad export data from japan. it is the second bad month of data, it was from may and japan did have a very long public holiday in may, so that may explain some of it but the trend for export injapan some of it but the trend for export in japan have been some of it but the trend for export injapan have been lower and also imports. this is another sign of how global trade is really suffering from this us china trade spat and this is why the g20 meeting at the end ofjune is so vital, notjust for the us and china but for elsewhere as well. japanese exports to china have fallen by over 10% already this year, so there is a huge amount going on and so much as resting on the g20 meeting. so we are keeping a close eye on that, the fed, the ecb, etc but here in the uk, ourown fed, the ecb, etc but here in the uk, our own domestic political story is getting more and more dramatic by the day, by the moment and sterling is remaining at a new six month low versus the dollar. yes, closest to its lowest levels of the year,
around the 125 mark. i think the whole outcome of the tory leadership election, who will be the next prime minister, are we going to have no—deal brexit on october the 31st? it is like the sword of damocles hanging over the pound and it is ha rd to hanging over the pound and it is hard to see the pound rallying. the dollar is a really strong currency at the moment. the ecb has obviously taken the wind out of the sails of the euro and i think the pound is likely going to stay in the position it has for the last three years. likely going to stay in the position it has for the last three yearslj wonder it has for the last three years.” wonder what trump will make of that, a weak euro, a weak pound. he won't like it but not even he can do anything for the $4 trillion a day effect market. thank you, we will see you again soon. still to come... we care about what we eat, but what about the stuff we put on our faces? recent headlines about make—up containing asbestos being pulled from the shelves. we speak to one business owner about why clean beauty is the way forward.
you're with business live from bbc news. apparently, we have several obsessions in this country, i would add brexit to the list, but the two is the weather and the housing market. we know britain is called the rainy isle, true to form it's been a week of almost continuous downpour across parts of the uk. and that's not good news for many businesses. farmers are very vulnerable. last year, their incomes fell nearly 20%. so what impact will the recent wet spell have? our business correspodent sean farrington is at the royal cheshire county show this morning. for the livestock and the farmers here at the royal cheshire county show, 2019 a very different year to 2018. currently worries about the rain and how long it will go on for. last year, the beast from the east followed by the baking hot summer meant that it made it a very difficult year, that is why farmers' incomes were down, food prices were up and it was pretty tough. we've got stuart here with us,
who is a dairy farmer. hello to you, stuart. 2018, what was it like for you? well, it was rough but you just hit the nail on the head, you know, all the different scenarios we were dealing with and 2019 looks the same. different scenarios, totally opposite, and so this brings me to think that the volatility that may come with climate change could be extremely challenging and the flexibility we've got to build into our systems in order to produce food. you say volatility, with farmers' incomes down overall 20% last year. how many years of that can they survive? well, there will be ups and downs. i suppose some of these years, it can be up to five year cycles and it's very tough depending on any individual circumstances. if you are an established farmer, maybe you can talk things out. maybe you can tough things out. if you are a young farmer taking a big loan up, it's going to be, you know, it could be catastrophic. in that situation. but there are no guarantees with anything and the whole thing
about this, it is being able to be self—sufficient in food production and it is notjust us having climate change. no, it is competing with the rest of the world. it is a global thing and that will be the worry, if we rely on other countries to feed us, that will have a knock—on effect everywhere. and that'll be the challenge. stuart, we are going to have to leave it there, i'm afraid. we will keep an eye on how the rain goes this year. the downpours, if they continue, it won't be great, particularly for arable farmers at the moment. they think they have had a good start to the year but they are keeping a very close eye on those with forecasts over the next few weeks. your're watching business live — our top story... today, the us federal reserve decides on the cost of borrowing. other top central banks also meet this week,
all figuring out how to keep their economic engines from stalling. a quick look at how the markets are faring. european stocks have opened and they have opened pretty flat. if you haven't noticed, healthy living is a growing industry. we live in a world where more than ever we understand the importance of taking care of our skin and body. 0ur beauty products are starting to echo our health—conscious lifestyles. a recent study by nielsen found 15% of skin care consumers now want products without artificial ingredients. it's a thriving sector. in the us alone, annual sales of products featuring natural claims was $1.3 billion in 2017. the market is set to reach around $54 billion by 2027. well, one brand that aims to take advantage of this growing market is the bybi. founded in 2017 by two female entrepreneurs, the uk—based company makes vegan and certified cruelty free skincare products. elsie rutterford, bybi
co—founder, is with us now. good morning, and you have got some bits and bobs here on the table so we can have a look. how did this all begin? it began in our kitchens, as does every good story, so myself and my co—founder started a blog called clea n my co—founder started a blog called clean beauty insiders centred around making your own skincare in your kitchen. we grew that, we wrote a book, a recipe book, dedicated to sin care, so we book, a recipe book, dedicated to sin care, so we are book, a recipe book, dedicated to sin care, so we are talking about avocado face masks, coconut oil hair masks —— back to skincare. and we grew that and understood there was a real market for natural beauty and decided to make our own. so tell me how you differ from other products, beauty products, who have the same kind of modus operandi, they only use cruelty free products, they are very recyclable, ethical. how do you make yourself stand out in what is a very busy market? yes, very cluttered. we like to say we make skincare that works but doesn't cost
the earth, so we are a brand dedicated to great value when it comes to natural vegan is a stability is a huge part of our business but we do not compromise on the quality of the products and we market towards a mainstream, mass audience, so the look and feel of it is very accessible. and there is a lot of up cycling, is that how you describe it, going on? absolutely, so we describe it, going on? absolutely, so we work with a supplier in the uk who works with the juicing industry to collect seeds from fruits such as blueberries, strawberries and they basically collect the seeds that would otherwise be thrown away, clea n would otherwise be thrown away, clean them cock cold pressed them and use the cold—pressed oil —— may clea n and use the cold—pressed oil —— may clean them, cold—pressed and use the cold—pressed oil in our beauty range. it is a fantastic sustainability piece because the fruit isn't grown purely for the seeds, you don't throw away the pulp. so salability, ethical products, it sounds expensive. how
do you keep your prices down for the consumer, what happens to your m . consumer, what happens to your margins? absolutely, we do take a hit on margins but we committed to creating a line that is affordable, so creating a line that is affordable, so everything is under £32 and we have a range of boosters that are £12 each. we too —— to take a bit of the hit on the margin but the operation exists with extremely healthy margins as a whole so it doesn't impact our business overall. and in terms of what is in your products, we have mentioned it is cruelty free and healthy but where is it coming from? you are busy making this in the uk, what about brexit? brexit is obviously in our mind, we manufacture everything in the uk and one of our biggest clients is based out of france, so it is something we are thinking about but we don't know until we know, right? in terms of ingredients, we sought as much as we can locally. it is tricky with beauty because there has been more interested in something exotic when it comes to ingredients in the past,
but we are bringing as much of it as close to the uk as we can. but if high tariffs are slapped on some of the ingredients that you used to put in your goods, you will probably have to pass that onto the customer, do you think? potentially. i think there is a lot we can do around forecasting and we can be clever when it comes to manufacturing, so it is something that we are obviously nervous about but try not to be distracted by. you sell in the uk, where else do you sell worldwide? europe, south-east asia, australia, new zealand. what is the difference between the market in south—east asia and europe? difference between the market in south-east asia and europe? there are loads of new and six. europe, they are very dedicated to performance as the key driver and south—east asia as well —— lots of new winces. australia are into clean and natural, that is the standard there, you have to come to the market with more. at the big, big players in this field, the likes of l'0real and others, they arejumping on this bandwagon and are you concerned about what that might mean for you? you are very niche, very
small and if the likes of l'0real and others grab the market, is there room? absolutely and it will be fantastic if they do, because they will raise awareness among our consumers. what we have that the likes of l'0real don't is an authentic story, with the two of us as female entrepreneur was leading that and that is something consumers connect with. good luck, thank you for coming in and we shall keep an eye. we will look through the business pages in a moment but first, how do you keep in touch? in a moment, we'll take a look through the business pages but first stay up—to—date with all the day's business news as it happens on the bbc‘s business like page. there is insight and analysis from our team of editors right around the globe. and we want to hear from you, too. get involved on the bbc‘s business live web page at bbc.com/business. on twitter, we are @bbcbusiness and you can find us on facebook, @bbcmoney. business live, on tv and online. what you need to know when you need to know it.
kathleen is back to talk through some of the paper stories. let's talk about the debate last night, thatis talk about the debate last night, that is what everyone is talking about by the office water cooler this morning, i'm sure. what did you make of what the potential leaders had to say about their plans for the economy and plans for brexit?” didn't get much clarity on that at all, on either party. there was a bit ofan all, on either party. there was a bit of an argument about whether they will definitely lead by the sist, they will definitely lead by the 31st, which means potentially no deal, with the bulk of them would probably —— academics push out the deadline to avoid no deal, that is positive, but that debate doesn't matter because we don't choose the prime minister who will make the decision for the 31st of october, the conservative members do and it seems like boris johnson the conservative members do and it seems like borisjohnson will be that person. i thought he sounded a bit more conciliatory yesterday around working with the eu to get a deal. potentially positive but it doesn't look like the fx market took it that way. it seems like if you
area it that way. it seems like if you are a sheep farmer in shropshire, you might have some clarity but the rest of us... let's talk about tweets from the viewers, lots of people understandably have feelings about this. we asked people our time to talk to us about what they think of the debate. this one says if they we re of the debate. this one says if they were ca rs, of the debate. this one says if they were cars, they would all be right offs . adrian says it doesn't matter if it is an internal tory vote, the first ballot was opened before the first debate. this is a circus to feign democratic process to imply it is not necessary. calvin chapman says i personally trust borrows the least, it is a shame rory doesn't have the leadership qualities, his attempts at realism and honesty is refreshing for a politician. what was interesting, i notice jeremy hunt talking about the sheep farmer but he also talked about the fa ct farmer but he also talked about the fact that the conservative party traditionally was the party for business and how they want to try and win back that sort of thinking,
as it were. which is quite interesting since we have seen so many industries leave the uk under this process of brexit and the tory leadership. we didn't get any clarity on the financial sector, manufacturing sector, the industrial sector, all things that the conservatives suggest they focus on. i think they have done awfully poorly over the last three years and that the doesn't change that, in my view. robert anderson said unimpressed by all of them, totally clueless. dan says sadly each of these men will lead the uk through brexit, it matters little that rory stewart is the only one with a pleasa nt stewart is the only one with a pleasant personality. how important his personality in business? absolutely huge. the best deals are a lwa ys absolutely huge. the best deals are always done face—to—face and if you are sitting here and thinking of investing in the uk, a couple of billion, a few hundred billion, whatever it might be, you want to do it to whatever it might be, you want to do ittoa whatever it might be, you want to do it to a guy who's in charge who is a nice guy, you don't want to do to someone who you don't trust on a personal level or just from someone who you don't trust on a personal level orjust from looking
at them and thinking they look a bit dodgy. thank you so much, good to have you on business leave. good to have you on business leave. good to have your company as well, thank you for all of your comments —— business live. goodbye. good morning. good last night, we had some really intense downpours and thunderstorms moving their way and across the south—east of england, particularly the south—east, this is the radar imaging throughout the night, intense thunderstorms pushing their way north and eastward. we had some real lightning shows. this isjust one weather watcher picture from eastbourne last night, within the space of an hour, we had about 1,000 lightning strikes around the eastbourne area and the threat of more thunderstorms today. we could see a further 20—30 millimetres falling in a short space of time in the midlands, eastern and south—eastern areas of england, with the thunderstorms moving their way out across the channel into the
south—east. elsewhere quite cloudy, some outbreaks of rain which will move eastward and then brighter skies eventually coming into western areas. a mixture of sunny spells and heavy showers for scotland and northern ireland and it will feel quite warm and quite humid, particularly in the south—east, temperatures getting into the low 20s, but the warm and humid air will slowly move away overnight tonight. just behind this cold front, the air will come back around to a north—westerly direction. it is still going to be worn but we lose the humidity. into thursday morning, the humidity. into thursday morning, the temperatures will get down to around 7—9dc in the north, 10—11 further south but a bright start to the day on tuesday, lots of sunshine, it should be dry for many of us but there will be some showers developing, especially across scotla nd developing, especially across scotland and northern ireland, if you show is running their way across northern ireland and wales in the afternoon. some could be on the heavy side but there will be lengthy dry spells with the sunshine and feeling quite warm, temperatures 16-21d. into feeling quite warm, temperatures 16—21d. into the end of the week of
a higher pressure down towards the south trying to move further northwards and as we get to friday, we are more influenced by this area of high pressure, so that will settle things down, it will become drier and brighter. there will still beast —— might still be some sherry rain across the far north of scotla nd rain across the far north of scotland but for much of england and wales, it will dry out, some cloud and some rain but temperatures 18—21 celsius. during the weekend, high—pressure sticks around during saturday so it will be dry here as temperatures continue to rise. by sunday, the chance of some rain moving its way in from the south—west and again it is going to feel pretty one. that is all from me, goodbye. —— pretty warm.
you're watching bbc news at 9 with me, annita mcveigh. the headlines... the tory leadership race heats up as candidates clash over whether the uk can leave the eu by the 31st of october in a live tv debate. none of us wants a no—deal outcome. we have to resolve this and we have to resolve this quickly. the most important thing is to win for britain and that means getting out. one of the mistakes we've made so far is by having this sort of flexible deadline. let's get on with it, let's vote it through, let's get it done. us president donald trump formally launches his re—election campaign, asking supporters to keep him in office for four more years. with every ounce of heart, and mind, and sweat, and soul, we are going to keep making america great again. and then we will, indeed,