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tv   No- Deal Brexit  BBC News  July 10, 2019 3:30am-4:01am BST

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an outcry from human rights activists. now on bbc news, panorama. a no—deal brexit could be on the cards as both candidates in the race to be prime minister talk it up. we must leave the eu on october the 31st. if the only way to the european union is without a deal i would do that. the man who led the brexit planning for the government speaks out for the first time. everyone should be worried about what happens in a no deal situation, it is fraught with risk. from sea to shore some businesses fear it could force them under. it could put us out of business. others say it will bring
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new opportunities. i think no deal is preferable to a deal, there is an immediate benefit. i travelled across the uk and beyond to ask, are we ready for a no—deal brexit? if a no—deal brexit happens this is where the greatest impact could be felt. the roads of britain pays my arteries and lorries, the lifeblood, carrying much of what we need, make and sell. i'm hitching a ride to europe. hello. i'mjane.
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matt, nice to meet you. matt is one of the hundreds of thousands of lorry drivers in the uk. so matt, what have you got in the back? hanging fresh lambs. can we take a look? his yorkshire lamb is worth more than £100,000 and will end up in france and austria. it's a nice little family—run company and we have 18 drivers, one driver per truck. we're on our way to dover and over then to calais. i do not think people realise the sheer volume that travels in and out of ports around the country. if there's a no—deal brexit, there would be extra checks cross into the eu, and matt fears delays. it's going to cause problems is what we carry is perishable, all fresh meat, and we cannot afford to be sitting waiting to clear customs.
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as things stand, there would be new tariffs or taxes under global trading rules. the government is going to waive tariffs temporarily on most goods coming in, but the eu could impose them on things we sell abroad. it will affect us. i have heard that there will be a tariff, a premium for welsh, or british lamb, and at the end of the day if it is going to cost more, people won't buy them. tariffs and charges could make this lamb up to 70% more expensive and that could mean less business. we are not doing as many loads in and out of the uk, the company is not making as much money and we could take a loss in earnings. i am worried, it is a dark cloud over us but not really spoken about but i think a lot of people are worried.
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if there is a no—deal brexit on october the 31st it means that we would leave the eu without a specific agreement on trade. there are big questions about the impact that that would have across the uk, and whether we're ready for it. phillip rycroft knows all about what might happen if there is no deal. until march, he helped oversee the government's brexit planning. this has been an extraordinary exercise to which the civil service is responding brilliantly well. planning for exit, and in particular no deal exit, has been i think the biggest exercise across government that we have seen over the past few decades. there's nothing really to compare with this, this is an unprecedented situation. the government set aside billions and the planning involves almost
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every area of our lives, but how much can it control what would happen? no deal is a step into the unknown, and it is a venture fraught with risk, there's no doubt about that. is britain ready for no deal? i think the planning is absolutely in good shape but what that does not mean is that they won't be an impact from brexit, and particularly a no—deal brexit, because that is a major change and it would be a very abrupt change to our major trading relationship. as an island nation, those trading relationships are vital. i'm in the english channel, between britain and the rest of europe. seven years ago, john honeyard began farming mussels here.
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he voted to remain in the referendum. tell me about these mussels. like the bulk of the mussels end up on european plates and he fears his business could go under if there is no deal. i have spent 12 years growing this business and this is potentially our first big year of production. his mussels would be subject to more bureaucracy on both sides of the channel. any delays could be disastrous. there's going to be potentially there will be a lot of delays at the ports. every minute that they spent in the truck is less shelf life. some will die, as they lose value being out of the water for so long. with no deal does tariffs that the eu could impose would mean thatjohn‘s mussels cost 10% more.
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it might take all the profit. that's a lot of money off the bottom line. we're very worried because it could put us out of business. not everyone who earns a living from the sea pinks that a no—deal brexit will be bad for business. after no—deal, the uk would explicitly manage fishing up to 200 nautical miles offshore. european boats which currently fish in british waters would have to negotiate access. beautiful dover sole. look at the sheen on that. one of the best fish you can buy. in brixham in devon, fisherman mike sharp thinks a no—deal scenario would give britain back control of its waters and the upper hand in future trading
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negotiations with the eu. i voted to leave and i would love to have a no deal for the fishing side of it. everyone would be out and then you can decide who comes in and you can lay your rules out. there will be a deal afterwards but for me to walk away without a deal would be fantastic and then negotiate. mike's not worried about potential tariffs or extra checks when europe is hungry for british fish. if you look at france and spain, massive fish—eating countries. if they do not have the opportunity to fish in our waters so much they are still going to want it. you're not worried about no deal? not at all. we export £92 billion worth of goods to the eu every year. if there's no deal, the government says its priority is to keep goods moving and to avoid delays. do you think that they will be
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delays in the early days? it's difficult to say. a lot depends on how the authorities on the other side of the border responds. a lot depends on how well businesses are prepared. if they don't have the right paperwork in place they would have to be held until they get that in order to be able to cross that border. that's going to cause delays, isn't it? that is the risk, delays at the border. delays could have the greatest impact in kent. plans have been rehearsed to stack lorries on motorways or to help them on this disused airfield. matt and i are heading through kent towards the ferry to calais. coming in to dover, down here on the right—hand side. after a no—deal, he fears this might not be the quick and easy run it is today.
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the eu would treat the uk as an outside nation. at the moment we go straight through, show our passports, they ask what we are carrying. rough weight. it's not yet completely clear how getting into the eu would work but this is what we know. british businesses that trade with the eu should submit export papers before lorries arrive at the port. those businesses would need a registration number to do that. the problem is, fewer than half of them have applied to the government to get one. if each truck has to start doing customs clearance, then there will be a backlog of trucks waiting to leave. there are no plans for routine customs checks on the british side for lorries leaving our ports, but the french may insist they can't board a ferry in the uk without all the right paperwork. lovely, thank you very much.
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cheers, mate. this ferry company carries over a million lines a year on the dover—calais route. during the crossing, they will send their paperwork to the authorities on both sides. french customs will then tell the ferry company if lorries need checks on arrival. in the event of a no—deal brexit, the ferry company effectively becomes the middleman between britain and europe for all those lorries and the freight that they are importing and exporting, and that's a big responsibility for the company. this danish ferry boss says they've been carrying out trials for months. i think we are as ready as we can be, so we're confident we will be ready and in the first couple of days.
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i'm pretty sure there will be problems with trucks coming down to different terminals in europe and the uk not prepared with documentations. so to all our customers who are waiting, there will be delays. 0n the other side of the channel, in the french port of calais, they have spent 6 million euros getting ready for no—deal brexit. it's just here you have parking. they've built parking spaces which could hold lorries that haven't completed all of the formalities. how big are these parking areas? 300 places together. you could be stopping 300 lorries? yes. we hope it will not be the case. if there is no deal, that is your responsibility but our responsibility is to organise traffic in the port of calais and we are ready. back in britain, what do truckers think about no—deal preparations? the haulage industry says
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the government needs to do more to reassure them. we have no clarity of the processes, or what is really going to happen on day one. the government would say that they have planned for this and there are contingency plans and there will be overflow lorry parks, that they thought it through. i do not think they thought it through enough, if we end up with lorry parks in kent i feel the government will have failed. lorry drivers have another big concern — if there is no deal as it stands the special licences allowing british lorries to drive in the eu are due to expire byjanuary. the default position is another permit, whether annual or short—term, and companies are applying for them. but there are currently only 6,500 permits available in the uk for 40,000 lorries. it's almost like a lottery system, that's the sense from the industry,
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in terms of how they're allocated. there are not nearly enough permits for trucks that go to europe. what will happen to british operators who cannot get a permit? they will not be allowed to go, as simple as that. the government told us it doesn't expect to rely solely on these permits and is taking responsible steps to plan for all scenarios. the hauliers association has gone public with their concerns about government brexit planning. it's been a frustrating process over the last two years. people don;t listen to the detail. richard bennett says the secretary of state for transport, chris grayling, warned him to stop speaking out following a briefing last august. we walked away from that meeting feeling like we have made no progress and we had hit a brick wall. his association immediately issued a press release about the meeting.
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within hours, chris grayling had left him a voice mail morning and twice that he might not be included in future brexit meetings. i had intended to involve you closely. that makes it much difficult to do that. —— much more difficult. my sense of that message was either shut up or you do not engage, you either play ball with us you will not be a part of the negotiations on behalf of the industry. we have a government trying to silence an industry that is trying to help government and guide them. despite the telling—off, discussions didn't stop. the department for transport said they would continue to involve the hauliers association at every stage, and it's unfortunate when details of a conversation held in confidence are made public in a press release.
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a no—deal brexit could affect our imports from the eu as well as our exports. any delays in getting products into the uk and we could start to run low on vital supplies, so the government has already asked some businesses to stockpile. this pharmaceutical company imports ingredients to make medicines which it exports all over the world. our main products are in epilepsy and also we have some life—saving cancer medicines here, where patients need to have those regularly otherwise the tumour will re—occur. we are talking about critical life essential medicines here. many large commercial warehouses are now almost full. this company has stockpiled enough to last six months which is how long the government predicts disruption to medical supplies might last.
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in the event of delays at the border, the government could charter planes, boats or lorries to ensure medical supplies reach the uk on time. do you think the politicians had any idea of the complexity of this when no—deal was advocated? i don't think they did, to be honest i think we have all had a wake up here. what does it cost you to get ready for a potential no—deal brexit, both in terms of money and resources? so far we have spent over £10 million on our preparations, various aspects of it, and that is in hard cash. therefore it is money we would have spent on research and researching vital medicines. the government says it is providing people with the information they need to prepare, and encourages them to take action. but bigger businesses are generally better equipped to do so. can you be confident smaller businesses in particular in britain are ready for this?
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i think we are pretty confident that many larger businesses have thought hard about what they would have to do in a no—deal circumstance. the problem is greaterfor small and medium—sized enterprises. they have a lot else to deal with, planning requires energy, it is expensive and it takes time. only one fifth of the british economy involves making goods that are shipped from one place to another, the rest is made up of different types of services like banking. banking and the broader financial services sector is incredibly important to the uk economy. we contribute about 75 billion to the exchequer, it employs one in every 14 people. firms like banks have spent tens of millions planning for brexit. it's estimated 300 companies are moving staff and £800 billion in assets out of the uk
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and into europe. i think the financial services sector has been repairing for some time and it is as ready as it can be. but a no—deal brexit would be different, and not everything can be planned for. there is a risk some eu—based customers of uk banks may lose access to mortgages, unsecured loans or even their current accounts. different countries like germany, france and ireland have enacted measures to allow some, but not all, products and services to continue to flow in the event of no deal. there is an incredible gap in what we can and cannot do if we leave the european union in november with no deal. will there be disruption with no deal? absolutely. there is some of it mitigated? yes. some believe no deal would be the best option, even with the unknowns.
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i have come to dublin to visit one of the most vocal supporters of brexit. a man who owns nearly 900 pubs in the uk and ireland. tim martin has no fears about a no deal and thinks it would be good for the consumer. i voted to leave in the referendum. i think no deal is much preferable to a deal. you regain control of fishing immediately, and you can eliminate tariffs on thousands of products without damaging the uk economy so there is an immediate benefit. tim's company imports lots of its alcohol. but to avoid any delays, he's already looked to buy at home. anything you can buy from the eu, you can buy from the rest of the world or from the uk.
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we switched from german wheat beer to wheat beer from the uk and it has sold well so that is an example. what about companies trying to export products to the eu, who could face new tariffs if there is no deal? you don't export but lots of british businesses do and they are going to be worse off arguably, they believe. it certainly does not outweigh the benefits to consumers and businesses because we import more than we export, therefore the saving in tariffs on imports is more than tariffs on exports. many people say it will be a catastrophe if there
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is a no—deal brexit. they said if we didn'tjoin the euro the economy would go down the pan, it has done very well. they said if we voted leave there would be a huge catastrophe in the economy, that didn't happen. you have to look at the track record and i have been right. of course the economic impact of no deal is really difficult to predict, butjust an hour up the road in northern ireland, the stakes are high. the border here will be the uk s only land border with the eu. since the hard won peace deal, it has been kept open. on this stretch of road, i am criss—crossing it four times injust six miles. the border is so open there are no checks and hardly any sign you are crossing from one country into another and back again. people on both sides have become closely interconnected and that would be significant in the event of a no—deal brexit.
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we are standing literally on the border between northern ireland and the republic of ireland, in an area that was an economic wasteland but now is thriving. aidan connolly represents northern ireland retailers. this one stretch of road has 8500 lorries crossing it every day. many goods made here are processed on both sides of the border. if you look at a bottle of baileys there are five movements across the border until it becomes a finished product so it is that sort of integrated market we are talking about. is northern ireland business ready for a no—deal brexit? absolutely not. there is no way we can be ready for what is a systematic disintegration of the supply chains across this island. the no—deal brexit will be a disaster for the northern ireland economy.
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along the border in county fermanagh, andrew little is bringing his cows in. this is an example of how intertwined the two economies are. after a no—deal brexit, his milk would become an export to the eu. he says the tariff of around i9p per litre would destroy his profit. in theory you could be put out of business if there is a no—deal brexit. we couldn't afford to produce the milk. it would break my heart to see no cows here, going in the morning to an empty shed. what would you do? i find it very harsh. what did you vote in the referendum? i voted to leave, the people's vote was to leave and it is up
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to the politicians in westminster to do what the people say and come up with a deal to leave. i know deal scenario would be catastrophic to the agricultural industry, especially the dairy industry. i think we need a deal. under no deal, a difference in tariffs could make some products cheaper in northern ireland than in the republic. aidan is worried this price difference might attract criminals, keen to make a profit on the black market. what you do if there is a hard border is you create thousands of products that have a differential, you create a smugglers paradise and make northern ireland into the wild west. northern ireland's police service is also concerned that economic uncertainty could herald a return to troubled times.
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should the differentials on either side increase and be exacerbated in any way, that would give opportunities for organised crime groups to exploit that and we would see traditionally connections between some of those groups and more violent groups. a number of groups linked to dissident activity are still active in northern ireland. the potential impact of no deal on the economy in northern ireland is significant, and that would present potentially significant security concerns. is the ira already recruiting off the back of brexit and particularly a no—deal brexit? the new ira and other groups continue to recruit people and we believe brexit provides an opportunity for them to encourage people to recruit. again though, at this stage we don't see any upsurge in recruitment of violence being driven specifically by brexit. the government has given the police service more money for an extra
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300 officers and staff. those increased numbers are being invested in local communities along the borders and other areas where there are concerns about community tensions during the eu exit. if no deal happens this october, things could change overnight. so is the man who oversaw the planning worried about the day after? i think everybody should be worried about what happens in a no deal situation. we would be taking a step into the unknown. it is not in the uk or eu's interest to have no deal. the rational outcome over the next few months is to get a deal. lorry driver matt is now arriving at calais. there have been no hitches. there has been no delay coming off the boat, you arrive in the port and follow the signs straight up. but it has not been a smooth journey to brexit. everyone i have met has told me of their frustration at the political uncertainty.
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we are tired of the brexit, sorry but we are tired. all of the time spent, all of the discussion, i think it is enough now. i think they need to get off their backside to actually do theirjob and come up with a deal and agree a deal. for goodness' sake, guys and girls, let's do it. we weighed it up, decided to leave, let's go. we won't know until the autumn after there is a new prime minister whether no—deal will become a reality. in the short term i think it could be quite a headache.
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this is bbc news. welcome if you're watching here in the uk, on pbs in america or around the globe. i'm duncan gollestani. our top stories: the two contenders to be british prime minister face each other in a head—to—head debate, clashing over brexit and the economy. what we should be doing is getting ready and encouraging the people of this country to believe they can do it, because they can do it. being prime minister is about telling people what they need to hear, not just what they want to hear. no let—up in the diplomatic row between the us and uk as donald trump calls the british ambassador to washington a very stupid guy. 0ne life saved in
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