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tv   Electioncast  BBC News  November 25, 2019 8:30pm-9:01pm GMT

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it's adam at westminster. it's chris at westminster. and laura at westminster. it's nice to be altogether. yeah. and we're going to celebrate this momentous moment by looking back at some of the manifestos that have been published that we haven't covered in previous episodes, for various logistical reasons. very good. 0h! i made it sound so boring! oh, well, never mind. right. we are going to be poring over the competing, compelling visions for the nation. is that better? yeah, let us make it more fun.
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50, laura, what did you do yesterday, at the weekend? there we go, that is more fun already! i went to telford. because? because there was the tory manifesto launch in the international centre, in telford. paint the picture. so, it was quite dank. quite wet and quite grey and buggy. but it was one of these weird moments where you see the comments or the poltiical world as kind of public assets for a few hours. and the even bus in the placards. they give out the placards, they are standing the placards, and then the leader arrives and the all of harar! hurray! and then it is transformed into this big event, and then they all disappear, placards get handed back in, people get back on the bus, the politicians go away, the activist go home. we then hang around the bad smell until we had finished our reporting.
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so, you know, i kind of, the news was on earlier yesterday, at half past five, it was, sort of, you know, a couple of my team and a stray dog wandering around the car park. we will talk about the contents of the document. which some people say is, kind of, manifesto light, but actually it has got quite a lot of stuff in it, really. it is not superlight,. it has a lot of stuff in it, that is true. when you compare to the labour manifesto, which is a very, very radical, very different, i was going to save blueprint, but it is a redprint. the tory manifesto does not have much to scare the horses, there were no giant surprises in it. but do not forget, the radical bit about what the tories want to do is to be out of the european union in 67 days. so, the manifesto in and of itself, as that document, it does not, sort of, read like, you know, a text that will change the world. but actually there are really big things in it. let us listen to borisjohnson and there may be some phrases in here that you have become familiar with. jeremy corbyn won't tell us whether he would even be willing to advise people to vote in favour of his own deal. he used to be indecisive, now he is not so sure.
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applause do we want... do we want that kind of leadership, my friends, do we want more delay? do we want more dither and drift and deadlock and division? do we want 2020 to be another year of defeatism and despair? no, we do not. we want to move forward, because this country has an incredible future and here, here it is. i believe it is at least the partial blueprint for that future. here is the route map to take us forward, because unlike any other party standing in this election, we are going to get brexit done. with a deal that is pre—cooked, ready to go, oven ready, as i keep saying. approved notjust by our friends in the eu, but by every single one of the 635 conservative candidates
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standing at this election. curiously, ijust went round, it is part of my mission to get a copy of all of the manifestos to rattle around in my bag. of course, one of which, at least, is going to be the thing that we consult for the next five years, in terms of holding a government to account. ijust went round to cchq and said can i have a copy of your manifesto? i told them who i was, but i could have been an ordinary voter, because it doesn't seem the most ludicrous thing to ask for. they said, "oh, we don't have any printed ones. you can go on the internet." isaid, "i know, buti want a printed one." i have got a printed one. well, you see, there in lies the difference between you and me. they give them out at the event, so i think... anyway, they printed one out and i know the signs that quite a tripod, but it does give the sense of how a party is trying to project itself to the electorate. i have just been going through, because the pictures of various candidates, if you put aside the ones who are already in the government, you get a sense of the bases and the voices that there wanting to promote. and of 17 candidates pictured, nine by my calculation work or have worked in the public centre.
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yeah. and others have, kind of, to borrow adam's phrase when we were doing the sums, kind of cuddly, in a way. an ocean conservationist. just to be clear, i was looking at the policy costings, why give looking at the pictures. an ocean conservationist, and admin assistant, a farmer's charity worker. what i'm saying is that there's not anybody here whose job description is venture capitalist. anchor. billionaire. and so, it isjust intriguing in terms of the public face that they seek to present. sure, and i think the tories know that they are still very vulnerable on the squeeze on public spending in the last two years. i mean, last two years, nearly ten years. they know that, they absolutely know that. and, you know, anyway, these are the two sort of pay competing forces in this election, and they? labour all the time is trying to get the conversation onto austerity. the tories, because they know
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they are vulnerable brexit, the tories all the time are trying to get the conversation on brexit, because they know they are vulnerable on brexit. these are the big, kind of, forces, aren't they? boris johnson was actually asked about that, whether he was really ending austerity like he said he is. by 2023 you will say, as a result of the decision, we are making 29% increase in spending, just on the nhs. the funding we are putting into the nhs, which will begin, we will continue as we are back in downing street, if i am lucky enough to be back in downing street on, in december, we will be investing, as i say, the biggest ever cash boost to the nhs. 50,000 more nurses, 50 million more gp appointments and we are bringing back the bursary for nurses, as well. i believe absolutely passionately that it is ourjob as one nation conservatives to support a step change in the funding of our great public services, particularly the nhs and that is what we are going to do. yes, of course, it is true that we're doing it in a sensible way and we are making big commitments now, we are making big commitment over the lifetime of the parliament and on public services and infrastructure. adam is very excited, laura,
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about what we are about to do. but before that, on the spending stuff and the austerity stuff, i noticed there was a line in one of the papers this morning talking about for every pound that the conservatives have pledged to spend by the end of the next parliament, labour has promised 28. but then interesting, this little nugget from torsten bell, of the resolution foundation. he worked for ed miliband, saying that whilst those numbers sound modest, the conservative ones relative to labour, it would amount to the biggest increase in the size of the state, 1.1% of stocks and shares, under any tory prime minister since harold macmillan. so, in terms ofjust that conversation about austerity and the end of austerity, money going into public services that was taken out of them under previous conservative administration or the coalition. that is right. and i think we were talking about this last week, when true? that's one of the things that this election is injunction about, it is the end of the common sort of, pull— back the squeeze on the state, the retrenchment, the kind of post—crash, you know, if you think about it
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in really big historical blocks, enormous crash, government shovels and loads and those of money to avert disaster. next government spends years and years trying to pull back that money. we are now the start of the next phase, where whoever wins is going to start reversing that retrenchment. you know, the pendulum is swinging the other way. it isjust is the pendulum going to swing 1000 miles an hour or is it going to gradually drift back? and if you took brexit out of this election, aha, that is the essence of where it is at. so, yeah, the tories, it is another good way to understand it as well as well as the one to 28, which sounds so kind of stretchy and crazy and almost impossible to get your head around, think about it this way, one of our colleagues came up with this, think about the tories were talking about tens of billions and labour is talking about hundreds of billions. so, you know, i know the difference between a tenner and 100 quid. it is a way of sort of understanding
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the scale of the differences. and what i think is interesting and it was quite, chris giles the economics editor of the fte, says, actually, the tories‘ pledge on one of the fiscal rules is to balance current spending. in other words, the day—to—day stuff at the government spends will be matched by how much they raise in tax revenues and they will only borrow to invest in big stuff, like infrastructure and stuff of the future. but if you look at the costings document, the current budget surplus in the final year of the next parliament if there is a tory majority government and they do other things they want to do, will be just over 5 billion. which economist would say is a drop in the ocean and its a guess and also, well, are you going to have to break your fiscal rules fairly soon? or are you want to have to raise taxes to make up the gap? or is this all, or is this alljust a sort of, evasion and a bit of positioning and actually all of the stuff gets forgotten? though actually, do remember, the last manifesto, "no increase in national insurance" and that came back to bite theresa may and philip hammond. yeah, it did. i think, that the first off there is a factual thing about manifestos.
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they are a bit different to a prime minister or a leader of the opposition giving a speech in saying that these are the different things that i would like to do. for a technical reason, in that the house of lords by convention does not block things that the parliament wants to do, a government wants to do, if it was in that manifesto. so, it is the kind of thing that, even if it seems outrageous to those in urban, they are not going to be in theory allows a blockage of the government gets a majority. i have to say, though, i was listening to deborah matheson, who is one of the... ugh! i don't mean that about deborah, i mean what she was staying. because i heard it, too. i didn't. it was that most people do not pay very much attention to manifestos. but they have a dynamic in terms of the campaign and they know that they can change the direction of campaigns, i'm not sure that either of them or the other parties are really changing the dynamics of this campaign, though. for what it is worth, they do not seem to have shifted the dial opinion poll wise. for what that is worth and there is still time, i guess, because the conservative manifesto is a 24—hour sword.
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—— 24—hour sold. well, i was going to say, another manifesto launch, from the brexit party, but it was not a manifesto launch, was it? a contract. but it is interesting, isn't it? nigel farage‘s argument is that the leader of brexit party that the word manifesto is kind of debased. well, let us hear his argument. this is not a manifesto. because a word association test with manifesto give us they word lie and is that any surprising givenjust how many broken promises be have seen in british politics over the last few general elections? manifestos are in means of telling people what they want to hear without ever having the genuine desire to implement them. in the subject of debased political language, i did try this out, actually, and i said to my wife, i pledge to do the hoovering. and there was just gales of laughter, that word pledge, which is so often associated with this particular stage of the political process... yeah. ..can be met with a skip of cynicism. derision more like. i hope you did, did you do the hoovering? i did, eventually,
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but not the full job. really? so did you only hoover one room or something? yeah. chris! what room was it? the lounge. it is the key room to do, i think, if you're going to do one. did you do it properly? well, i thought it was proper. you are probably scrutinising my domestic manifesto. we cannot spend more time scrutinising your vacuuming than we did the brexit party's contract. what are the big things in their contract? in the contract? a political revolution. yeah, it is a lot about constitutional reform, as we discussed before. because they want to change the political system, potentially to make it easier to have more brexit party mps. and then, they talk about their big brexit dividend, so they say they would raise £200 billion, they do it by scrapping hs to, keeping the £13 billion that would we would be giving the eu if we were still in, recovering £7 billion from the european investment bank,
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which is the investment bank arm, wing of the eu, and taking 50% of the foreign aid budget and spending it in the uk, which would give them a0 billion over five years. on the tv licences either? but i guess the essence of it, to be on the nitty—gritty of the contract, is this whole thing that we have seen from them in the last couple weeks, that they are saying borisjohnson is to deliver the long—term brexit solution by the end of 2020 and they are comfortable, because we know they are because this was their position until a few weeks ago, with the idea that if it comes to it and there is not an arrangement by then, to leave without one. therefore, that coming political battle 2020 is kind of there to be seen. sure, and actually, it is in the tory manifesto, as well, a commitment not to extend if there is not a trader ready. —— a trade deal ready. now, i have to say, if the tories and of getting a majority, which is still a big if, i would not be entirely surprised if ultimately they end up having
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to extend if they feel they need to do that, right? because previous, boris johnson did that before, theresa may did that before, when they did not have majority. so, if you do not have a majority, remember, if anybody has a majority we will enter suddenly a different era that will not have been getting in the last four years, when everything has been so dicey. but you are right, i mean, that kind of alignment of interest from the brexit party to some of what borisjohnson has said, that is making a difference on the ground. it is making a particular difference to the lib dems. as they publicly acknowledge. as they very publicly acknowledge. and just some other stuff in the brexit party. gone are the days when you would hear nigel farage saying at rallies maybe we should have much more get rid of the nhs or change how the energy as works or private provision, that is definitely going. there's a lot of stuff in there about investing in nhs and investing in education at the brexit party to plant loads of trees, which is what every moment city. remember where they are trying to end. they are trying to win in labour leaving areas, right?
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they are not going to in areas like that where they are looking in good and speak, how, in places where hartlepool, in former rock—solid labour parts of the country. so, saying that they're going to scrap the nhs and make everybody for private health care, that is not one to fly. so, they are, in, all of party's manifestos are always shaped by where they are trying to win, right? where they think their voters are at this time round. i know we have still to wait for the snp manifesto... wednesday. is that wednesday? but the striking theme, the theme running through all of them in one way or another, to a greater or lesser extent in all of them, contrasting the 2017 and earlier is that it is the green thing. the climate change runs three, whether it is the brexit party talking about their trees or it is a big thing in labour and the lib dems and the conservatives, that sense of this massive issue amongst all the noise of brexit and the rest of it is quite a striking change in just a couple of years. certainly, i'm not sure if the brexit party one has a carbon target in it, i cannot quite remember, but the rest of them all day. but the rest of them all do. to varying degrees of strength. lib dems have a very tough target, the greens and astringent on all of the stuff,
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but, you know, this 29 election is very poultry. -- is —— is very pro tree. the brexit party, as well, they would have net migration each year of 50000 and that would be done through work permits. which is very low. i mean nobody else is putting a figure on it and that is very low compared to where we are at right now. i mean, at the moment it is settled at about 250,000 a year. without checking a think it is around about that, it is around the population of a small city like oldham, coming every year and it is been quite stable at that level. so for anybody to say oh, we would get 50,000, that'll be massive change. you can get more details and analysis about this manifesto is on the bbc news website. now, tonight isa the bbc news website. now, tonight is a big moment in the broadcasting history of this campaign. inquisitor in chief is starting his interviews without the main party leaders on bbc two. i did not know his middle name. i do not know what it stands for. that is his twitter handle.
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anyway, first up, i have no idea what they first minister of scotland middle name is. here is nicola sturgeon. ask if people are prepared to believe if jeremy sturgeon. ask if people are prepared to believe ifjeremy corbyn finds himself in a position to form a government that is going to walk away from all that these other things a month to do, because he is not prepared to concede the right of scotland to choose our own future. in terms of the andrew neil interrogate was quite a lot in it. nicola sturgeon sang westminster hatch and that our voice,... she is absolutely certain she says that scotla nd absolutely certain she says that scotland does not need its own currency in order tojoin scotland does not need its own currency in order to join the scotland does not need its own currency in order tojoin the eu. lots of scrutiny about the practicalities of independence, if scotla nd practicalities of independence, if scotland was ever to get to that. 0k, scotland was ever to get to that. ok, from scotland, we are now heading to wales. plaid cymru
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publish their manifesto a couple of days ago and earlier ob discussed with their political editor. well, couple of big things for plaid really, are a, they are anti—brexit. they say that it would be a disaster for wales and they want a second referendum, and as you know, they are also a pro—independence party and those two big messages from them, quite a bold message, if you consider that they are running in a country which has shown little enthusiasm for either. remember that in terms of independence, you know, the poll suggests it is in minority enthusiasm for welsh voters and of course by brexit, well, wales did vote to leave in 2016. but here is a flavour of what their leader adam price said about that. we must defeat the negative, hope crushing wrecking ball that is brexit. and if we want the people to have the final say, then we must encourage as many of them first to say loudly and clearly in the days ahead this brexit is not for us. it never was and never will be. and you know the single most
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effective way wales can register its european voice, find its collective voice as a nation, is by sending the largest ever contingent of plaid mps to westminster in our history. now, firstly, we love on electioncast to indulge in a bit of, looking at the granular detail of seats that may be won or lost. paint us a picture, in terms of plaid, what adam price has said there, as any leader would, he wants to win as many seats as possible, the numbers, their numbers are very tight, aren't they? do you know what, chris, they really are for plaid and, you know, there is barely anything in it between what could be their best ever result or a disasterfor them, because they are defending board seats, two of those forces are object marginals. —— to those for seats are ultra marginals. one of them has fewer than 100 votes in it and the other has just over 100 votes in it and their targets, their big target seat
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is the anglesey seat and last time i spoke to you, in fact, i was in anglesey, because that is where they launched their campaign. i was in a car park then, much more glamorous now, look, i am in a studio, nice and warm. but you can see then that with a view hundred votes, plaid could end up having their best ever result or a disastrous result for adam price, so really, really fine margins for plaid. it is going to be really interesting. thank you for coming along. i forgot to iforgot to do i forgot to do my editorial duty and say that andrew neil is going to be interviewing all the other main party leaders over the next two weeks. you mean andrey effing nail, as may be the politician emerging from an interview might call him. thank you to scout for your very quick types to eat, saying that andrew neil's middle name is ferguson. which prompted us to do a little more research about the middle name of nicola sturgeon.
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guess this! it is ferguson, t! not frozen to, but ferguson, as well. is ita frozen to, but ferguson, as well. is it a popular middle name in scotland oi’ it a popular middle name in scotland or does itjust it a popular middle name in scotland or does it just happened it a popular middle name in scotland or does itjust happened to be one of the country's most famous broadcasters and the first minister? you are undelete chef preparing material for the morning, you are undelete chef preparing materialfor the morning, what we be looking at? a story involving labour which we will be broadcasting from 10pm tonight. i will not say any more on it, but i suspect it will generate a headline. the other thing happening tomorrow is, it is the deadline for registering to vote if you're not on the electoral register. it is at the end of tomorrow, midnight on tuesday. register. it is at the end of tomorrow, midnight on tuesdaylj know tomorrow, midnight on tuesday.” know you have some stats about this any minute. i was having a look at the whole process of their solicitor earlier on and if you so choose and you want to vote, but you think you are not on the register because you might have motels or whatever since the last election, then you can just search for it online and it is
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relatively straightforward, providing you have got your national insurance number. is that i need? your address, your name and all of that, assuming it can be called that that, assuming it can be called that that the only bet you might not know off the top of your head that you need is your national insurance number. if you get your pulling card, that means you're on it and you do not have anything to any about. people should be getting those by now. i have got mine. i a lwa ys those by now. i have got mine. i always laugh, i know where the polling station is it is less than 150 sabitzer my flat, i counted it once. that could be the new social media thing, steps to pulling stations. we do not want to replace dogs that billing stations, it is the only thing we can tweet about on election day. ap stats about registering to vote. a massive 2.8 million applications to register to vote since the election was called. that is 1 vote since the election was called. that is! million more than
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vote since the election was called. that is 1 million more than a comparable pre—deadline during the last election when there was 1.7 million applications. from call of election to this point. they also say that two thirds of the two pointed million who have applied to vote so far are under the age of 35. so, that means 1.86 million people under the age of 35 have registered to vote in the last couple of weeks. president suggest, i think, that the last 24—hour is for those with the business of processing others are nine applications is a rather busy one. if youjoin as nine applications is a rather busy one. if you join as tomorrow night will be be reporting that the register to vote website has crashed, because so many people have urged to vote? interesting of course, labour are really pushing this. loads of social media activity because i think it is a way to get their votes up. particularly if it is younger people who are less likely to be on the register and therefore it could potentially register in greater proportion, relative to their core what any population at large. 80 other things to announce. channel 4 have just
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announced that on thursday at 7pm they will have a climate change deemed tv debate, withjeremy corbyn, nicola sturgeon, jo swinson and sian barry of the green party and sian barry of the green party and england and wales. invites have gone out to mrsjohnson and faraj, but no rsvp from either of those. —— mrjohnson and nigel farage. the debatable go ahead with or without them. so, iguess debatable go ahead with or without them. so, i guess potentially with an empty chairortwo them. so, i guess potentially with an empty chair or two empty chairs 01’ an empty chair or two empty chairs or whatever. an interesting one, as we talk about every day all of the ma nifestos we talk about every day all of the manifestos we have seen so far are cramp stuff about the environment. otherwise do wonder if ill end up being a massive fight as to who can announce how many trees they want to plant. and whether they are showing sufficient environment of robustness by saying that 2045 or 2050 or whatever is the appropriate and deliverable point for a carbon neutrality. rights, we have
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delivered all we have time for. thank you forjoining us. remember, you can listen to the podcast which has extra bonus stuff on it via bbc sounds, on the bbc sounds app. thanks for watching, thanks for listening points for downloading and subscribing. goodbye. goodbye. good evening. it is likely that we're going to close out the month of november as we began, with low pressure never too far away. that means more rain to come and over the next couple of days the rain chiefly across england and wales, although not exclusively. it could lead to some localised flooding, please tune into bbc local radio station for traffic and travel disruption. now, the low pressure that is going to cause the issues is this massive cloud here, that is pushing into the south—west. that is going to arrive a little later on tonight and with it we have a good band of showery rain
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that was just pushing in. a clearance behind, quite a lot of cloud around and there is that slow moving in to the dawn on tuesday. but with the cloud it is going to stay incredibly mild for this time of year, overnight lows generally of about eight to 10 degrees. so, as we start off tuesday morning that slow pressure is going to continue to push its way steadily northwards. plenty of isobars around the low, they winds very much a feature, gusts in excess of 45 to 55 miles an hour, first thing in the south—west on exposed coast. the rain heavy as it moves its way through cornwall, channel coast and up into central and southern wales. the middle part of the morning it will be heading towards northern ireland, across north—west england, the midlands and east anglia. eventually it is going to part itself across the scottish borders, and they're behind it we will see a spell of petty intense rain for turning into the south—east of england. a blustery afternoon however you look at it. but with the cloud, they went and the rain and still at our source
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coming from the south, it stays mild 9—14 degrees tuesday, as a move out of tuesday night into wednesday, the low pressure is never too far away. it gradually drifts its way steadily eastwards and so on the southern flank of that low, that is where we are likely to see struggles of the wind, gale force gusts across channel. a spell of wet by the for a time, and then by the end of the night we will see the wettest of the weather across eastern england, central and southern scotland. here that could lead to some localised flooding, as well. nine to 12 degrees, the high by then. the global gradually drift its way of into the near continent, and then the isobars are to become vertical, which means a change in wind direction for a colder source and that colder air is going to arrive during their stay and into friday. it heralds a change as we head towards the weekend. thursday into friday, slowly trying up and slowly quieter, but colder for all.
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hello, i'm ros atkins. this is outside source. we will start in hong kong. pro—democracy candidates here have seen massive gains. it's being seen as a rejection of the city's beijing backed government. of the city's beijing michael of the city's beijing bloomberg wants to be president michael bloomberg wants to be president of america. he's a multi—billionaire and former mayor of new york. more on the launch of his campaign. this is the moment thieves smashed their way into one of europe's largest and most important jewellery collections and stole them from a museum in dresden. and here in london, uber‘s been denied a new licence because of safety concerns. we'll play you some of what the company boss in europe

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