england's lockdown could last longer than four weeks — if coronavirus infection rates don't fall quickly enough. cabinet minister michael gove says the government can't guarantee the new restrictions will end in a months time but he's hopeful. if we ensure that all the steps that we're taking now are taken appropriately,
we'll have an opportunity, in advance of december 2nd, to review the progress that we're making. we'll be looking at the impact of the new restrictions, and what needs to happen before they're eased. also tonight: rescuers continue to search for survivors in the turkish city worst hit by the earthquake which has killed more than 60 people. with two days to go before the us election, last minute campaigning from both candidates in states where the vote could go either way. and manchester city retain the fa cup at wembley after beating everton in extra time. good evening.
england's four—week lockdown could last longer that its scheduled end date of december 2nd. the cabinet minister michael gove said ministers will be "guided by the facts". and that the government wanted to get the coronavirus reproduction rate below the critical level of 1. the new measures, which come into force on thursday, include the requirement to stay at home — only leaving for specific reasons such as work or education. outdoor exercise is encouraged, but you can only meet up to exercise with one person outside your household. there's no household mixing indoors or in private gardens, unless part of a support bubble. and pubs, restaurants and non—essential shops will have to close. we'll have more on all the measures and their implications shortly, but first, here's our political correspondent, jonathan blake. a round of golf while it's still allowed. here in hertfordshire, only the minimum restrictions are currently in place but, like the rest of england, people are now preparing
for a new national lockdown. i think it's frustrating here because the cases aren't that bad and we have all been, you know, following the rules that we were given. while people may not agree with it, we've got to stick with it. so it's a bit frustrating, yes, but rules are rules. the lockdown is due to last until the 2nd december but a senior government minister said that was a hope, not a guarantee and left open the option of restrictions staying in place for longer. if we ensure that all the steps that we're taking now are taken appropriately, we'll have an opportunity in advance of december 2nd, to review the progress that we're making and in advance of december 2nd, we can then communicate to those areas where some restrictions may be required, what they will be and also other areas where we've managed to beat back the virus, we can explain where liberties can be restored. labour say they'll support the plan but their leader is adamant it should have happened sooner. if what they announced yesterday had been announced when i said it should have been, two or three weeks ago,
we could have had the lockdown and schools shut because of the natural break of half term. you know, people will be waking up this morning and thinking, how on earth did it get to this? the government has to keep its side of the bargain here because if they don't use this time to fix test, trace and isolate, then i think the 2nd december will be a review date, not an end date. with labour's support, the national lockdown is likely to pass a vote in parliament later this week, but some conservatives are dead against it. the senior tory backbencher sir graham brady has told the bbc this repetitive cycle of lockdowns is immensely damaging to people's livelihoods and causing a huge toll. he and others are unlikely to be able to stop the government's plans but they are speaking out in the strongest terms. there is concern, too, about where the lockdown leads. one scientist advising the government said a return to regional restrictions is unrealistic. what mustn't happen is whenever that date comes, 2nd december or a little bit later, that suddenly the world
goes back to normal. it's not going to go back to normal immediately. i think it will be at least what is currently tier 3 or tier 3+ across the country. i don't think it makes sense to go back into regional variation in the restrictions that are in place immediately after this set of more draconian measures are lifted. in scotland, a new five tier system of regional restrictions comes into force tomorrow. wales is midway through a month—long firebreak lockdown and slightly looser restrictions are in place across northern ireland. police said up to 700 people attended this illegal rave near bristol last night, openly breaking the rules already in place. but this week will bring new limitations for everyone in england, as the government's last resort becomes a reality. jonathan blake, bbc news. i'm joined by our deputy political editor, vicki young. vicki, a busy last 2a hours,
and a busy week ahead? yes, and you think about the foreign secretary, it seems a long time ago he was on the tv saying it would be desperately unfair to go for a national lockdown. that was just two days ago and it does show how suddenly the government abandoned this local approach and has gone for what boris johnson this local approach and has gone for what borisjohnson called the nuclear option. politically, this is extremely problematic for him. partly the warnings were never in the scientists quite some time ago and the labour leader called for just this kind of approach. but he also has a problem with some of his own mps. the prime minister has to go to parliament at least twice this week asking for their support. some of them, as we have heard, extremely unhappy about this, on libertarian grounds. 0ne mp calling it like a totalitarian state. they are also worried about an exit strategy. what michael gove said there is not going to help. the idea it is a hope it ends on the 2nd of december and lots of people fearing that for many,
maybe millions in england, it could go on for a lot longer than that. there is another concern and that is about the decision making in downing street, the way that this really important decision tumbled out in quite a chaotic way. they are worried that it makes it look like they are incompetent. as one minister put it to me, he said we all know the virus is hard to control by the government has to be able to control its own message at this time. vicki, thank you very much. the latest government figures show there were 23,254 new coronavirus infections recorded in the latest 24—hour period. that means that the average number of new cases reported per day in the last week is now 23,016. 162 deaths were reported — that's people who died within 28 days of a positive covid—19 test. it means on average in the past week, 260 deaths were announced every day. it takes the total number of deaths so far across the uk to 46,717.
this latest lockdown has been prompted by the recent rises in infection rates, but what are the other key indicators which would allow restrictions to be eased? here's our health correspondent, lauren moss. from thursday, the message in england will once again be stay home to save lives. nonessential shops and hospitality will close, schools and hospitality will close, schools and universities will stay open. the prime minister has said the measures are to prevent a medical disaster, with the nhs being overwhelmed. are to prevent a medical disaster, with the nhs being overwhelmedlj think with the nhs being overwhelmed.” think the prime minister had no choice but to act on very clear evidence that the trajectory of hospital admissions, demand on the health service were such that we just would have been overwhelmed in the coming weeks, to the point that it wouldn't just be the coming weeks, to the point that it wouldn'tjust be a case of not managing the surge in patients with covid but the nhs would not have been able to provide services to
large numbers of non—word—macro patients. there are more than 9000 people with covid in english hospitals. some, including those in liverpool, lancashire and nottinghamshire are treating more coronavirus patients now than during the peak in the first wave. getting the peak in the first wave. getting the reproduction number of the virus below one is crucial. anything above that means it is spreading. in september, scientists looked at the effect different interventions could have on the r number which is thought to be around 1.2 at the minute. a full lockdown, like we had in march, which included schools closing, would have the biggest impact. it's thought the measures introduced in the spring reduce the rby introduced in the spring reduce the r by about 75%. they estimated closing pubs, bars and cafe should have a moderate impact, bringing it down by 0.1— 0.0. they also considered the closure of nonessential retail and stand on its own this would have a minimal impact. there's a level of uncertainty around these figures and
they are based on data before cases reach the severity they are at now but it is hoped the measures being introduced will bring that r number down. lockdown isn't a long—term solution, though. you have to use it as an opportunity to improve the test, trace and isolation. that is an exit strategy and until we get massed testing up and running with fast turnarounds massed testing up and running with fast turna rounds and massed testing up and running with fast turnarounds and it's a fast turnaround, there is no point having a system that had to wait five days for the test result to come because you cannot get ahead of the virus. the prime minister has promised a roll—out of rapid testing, which will give results within 15 minutes, is imminent. care has also advanced since march. the sickest patients can now be treated with a steroid and some nightingale hospitals are on standby. many hopes are pinned on a vaccine, with scientists predicting positive results by the end of the year. until then, reducing the spread of the virus and
limiting its effect are the only ways of indicating how long this latest lockd own ways of indicating how long this latest lockdown will last. lauren moss, bbc news. one of the key differences between this second lockdown and the first is that schools in england will remain open. but there are questions already about how sustainable that is, with england's biggest classroom teachers union saying secondary schools should move to a rota system, to help control transmission. 0ur education editor branwenjeffreys has been looking at the issues. these classrooms will be full again tomorrow, but cases are arising in secondary schools in england, so should they stay open? harrogate schools so far not badly hit, so what do parents here think? i think it's a good thing. i think the kids need to be socialising and better for their mental health and keeping their learning progress going. i think that it's a mistake. as much as, you know, them not being at school is not good for them, it's going to mean that we're ultimately going to be dragging out
this lockdown for even longer. i think it's quite important for the nation to carry on as best they can, so if lots of children are at home then people can't work at all, can they? whether that be at home or in their office or a shop or whatever it is that they're actually. this graph shows why scientists are worried. secondary schools have the fastest rising rate among all age groups, closely followed by sixth forms, colleges and young adults. the largest teachers union says one change would help — secondary pupils taking it in turns to learn at school and at home. sage have suggested that rota operation in schools could reduce virus transmission as much as closing the whole of hospitality. we have examples in sixth forms where children are being taught half the time at home and half the time in school. every lesson‘s still taught by teachers and support staff who are in college every day. that model is something that should be being researched, examined and brought into being straightaway, we think.
across the north west, many teenagers have missed lessons already, raising questions about fairness in next year's exams. ministers say schools should stay open at all cost. today, labour's leader backed that plan. we have to manage the risk but it is a priority to keep schools open. we need to make sure they're as safe as possible and we need... the government should put in place effective testing at schools. but then from manchester's labour mayor, a different view. i think the evidence around secondary schools is clear that if you want to turn the figures right the way around the other way, then there has to be a period of closure. from tomorrow, older teenagers in scotland asked to wear masks. 0n school buses in northern ireland, they're compulsory too — all part of the effort to keep schools across the uk open. branwen jeffreys, bbc news.
meanwhile, religious leaders have criticised the government's decision to ban communal acts of worship during england's new lockdown period. britain's most senior catholic, cardinal vincent nichols, called on ministers to publish the evidence behind the decision. the bishop of leeds urged borisjohnson to change his mind. and the muslim council of britain said there had been "inadequate consultation". today, retailers and hospitality firms warned that companies will be driven out of business by being forced to close in a second lockdown. it will see the closure of all non—essential retail, including restaurants, pubs and bars. indoor and outdoor leisure facilities will also be forced to close, as will entertainment venues and beauty salons. katy austin reports. when pubs and restaurants have to shut, there's an impact the diners don't see for firms in the supply chain — like this hampshire food wholesaler. we depend on hospitality
for about 80% of our trade and the other 20% is care homes, hospitals, schools. so, this is a big body blow. takeaways will still be allowed, to the relief of the owner of this restaurant in essex. we'll simply revert our business back to takeaway and deliveries and hopefully we'll be doing a lot better than when we did in the earlier part of the year. and what about jobs? furlough continuing will save many but it comes too late for others. 0ne worker told us he got his redundancy notice this week, just as the old scheme was due to end. it was gut—wrenching when i got it, it was horrible and with the fact we're entering a second lockdown, finding anotherjob is ultimately going to be quite difficult. people being told not to travel abroad is another blow to aviation, while the shutdown comes just when retailers hoped to benefit from pre—christmas shopping. the original furlough scheme cost at least £40 billion and the extended version looks set to add further billions
to that price tag. there'll also be grants available to businesses in england which are forced to close, up to £3000 a month. and there's an extension to mortgage holidays for struggling homeowners. again, the government is spending to try and minimise the damage of its restrictions. before yesterday's announcement, the government had committed something in the order of £200 billion for the economy over this year. now that is a staggering fee, number. it's going to have to provide more than 10 billion again for the furlough scheme and other support schemes over this month and clearly if, as seems not unlikely, it goes on beyond this month, then the numbers grow again. in april, under the first lockdown, the uk economy shrank by a fifth. that sort of figure isn't expected again this time, but some industries fear a bleak winter. katy austin, bbc news. and for more on the new restrictions and what they mean for you,
head to the bbc news website. rescue teams are continuing to search for around a hundred people missing since friday's earthquake which struckjust off turkey's aegean coast, causing widespread damage in the city of izmir. at least 69 people were killed — and thousands have been made homeless. in izmir, survivors have been pulled out of the rubble of collapsed buildings — including a 70—year—old. from there, our international correspondent 0rla guerin reports. they have been praying here for miracle rescues. 0vernight, they got one — a 70—year—old man called ahmet citim who had been buried for 33 hours, carried out alive. he was reclaimed from this — the wreckage of an eight—storey apartment block, now all but erased from the landscape.
a local official told us residents were worried and asked for an inspection over a year ago. it concluded the building wouldn't survive an earthquake. well, the search is continuing here, hour after hour. the rubble is several storeys high, and standing here, seeing all of this crushed concrete, it's hard to imagine that anyone else could be brought out alive. but the teams are still searching by hand, with heavy equipment, and with dogs. and nearby, relatives are keeping an anguished vigil. many haven't left the site since the moment of the earthquake at 2:51pm on friday afternoon. erdil is one of them — waiting for news of his beloved sister. she worked in a dental office on the ground floor of the building. my sister's university friend and other friend,
every time call me, every time calling me, writing, on instagram, on the phone, every time, writing, calling me, every people call me. we arejust waiting. i have a hope, i need to pray. every people need to pray because we have a chance. nearby we met raheema. she hasn't lost any loved ones but isn't sure she can bear to stay in the neighbourhood. now, opposite me, there will be a building that isn't there, she said, and people who aren't there. tonight, rescue teams are still grappling with the rubble and turkey is suffering a collective after—shock. across this earthquake—prone country many now asking, could we be next? 0rla guerin, bbc news, izmir.
with just two days to go until america goes to the polls, donald trump and joe biden are making whistle—stop tours of the key battle ground states in a bid to catch undecided voters. 0ur north america editor jon sopel is in washington. thanks very much, yes, the nation's capital is preparing itself for tuesday. maybe that should be bracing itself because wherever i look shops, businesses, they are all boarded up. the fear of violence is serious. whoever loses this election. meanwhile on the road the candidates are out seeking to get every last vote. the ponderous marathon that is a us election campaign is now a sprint. hello, michigan! hello, iowa! hello, pennsylvania! hello, garrard county! multiple stops, a whirl of swing states and the person running fastest is donald trump, with polls suggesting he's lagging behind. not that you'd know it from his
confident, bullish demeanour. he's so angry. you know why he's angry? because he's losing, that's why he's angry. no, he's very agitated. i don't think he knows he's losing, i don't think he knows anything, actually. joe biden has also upped his pace and is now being helped in these closing stages by the former president, barack 0bama. tweeting at the tv doesn't fix things. making stuff up doesn't make people's lives better, you've got to have a plan, you've got to do the work. even offstage, redefining political long shot. 0h! no drama 0bama. still able to command attention. that's what i do! and america's third president and founding father of this nation would surely look down with delight at the millions who've already voted, suggesting that turnout is going to be way up in 2020. wherever you go, there are long lines of people, but there's also a mood of deep apprehension.
you can tell the tension. i mean, i think the world can even feel the tension in the us. it's like a pressure cooker, everybody's feeling. to me, it's kind of like going for, uh... the lesser of two evils. i think it's very important that people, you know, come out and vote but especially for this year. it's just almost like crisis is going on. this is the great celebration of any democracy — the moment when we, the people, decide whether our rulers get another term in office or get turfed out. it is empowering. but there is a fear stalking america, a deep unease about what might come next in this bitterly contested presidential election. and how is the nation's capital preparing for this celebration of democracy? well, everywhere you go, you see teams of workmen boarding up shops and offices. something similar happens in the deep south during hurricane season, with acts of god. but on tuesday, america seems to be
bracing itself for a very different type of storm and one that's entirely man—made. jon sopel, bbc news, washington. if britons were voting in this american election then joe if britons were voting in this american election thenjoe biden would win decisively, according to an opinion poll which showed he was way more popular than donald trump, but of course they are not. but who would be best for britain and for the special relationship, who wins the special relationship, who wins the election on tuesday night? our world affairs editorjohn simpson reports. newsreel: mr macmillan raises the partnership... it's been a partnership... it's been a partnership for decades but never a partnership for decades but never a partnership of equals and britain has faded in importance as the years have passed. this sculpture in new bond street in central london represents the way a lot of brits think about the relationship with america. best mates, essentially. churchill and roosevelt sitting side
by side, planning the second world war. but the americans don't necessarily see it that way at all. and now we are onlookers at an election which will affect us immensely. trump favours brexit and well off as a trade deal on america's terms. —— and he will offer us a trade deal. biden dislikes brexit and has said johnson isa dislikes brexit and has said johnson is a barrister —— is a trump clone. if it's donald trump, second term, i think we can get a quick free trade deal stop he will prioritise that. and ifjoe biden wins? post-brexit britain no longer sitting around the eu table can no longer be a spokesman for influence for us views on what the eu does and that used to be an important part of the
relationship. in the biden camp there's still a lot of hostility towards borisjohnson personally. his past attacks on biden‘s friend and close ally, president 0bama, haven't been forgotten. biden himself isn't at all anti—british, but he is strongly against a no—deal brexit. i reported on barack 0bama's victory as the first black president in 2008. now, after the killing of george floyd and black lives matter, race is an issue again. biden‘s biggest decision was his choice for vice president, kamala harris, of african and asian descent. she would be hugely influential if biden wins, especially to people here, who have been moved by these campaigns. she would be the second most powerful person on the planet and it's just — i can't even say how overwhelming this is going to be. it matters enormously, because it's
going to change the landscape. the last four years under trump have done tremendous damage to some key british interests, like nato, for instance, and joe biden will take america back into the paris accords on climate change, another key british interest. still, donald trump has set a new standard for america abroad. biden would have to match trump's tough approach. biden has already made noises actually about protecting american industry from chinese dumping and so on, so don't expect biden to be softer than trump. it is quite simply the most important election the world has seen in decades and in britain it will affect the lives of every one of us. john simpson, bbc news.
and in that election it looks that turn out is going to be way higher than four years ago and just a word about the polls. we've had the final polls in the key swing states which are fascinating. they showjoe biden ahead in all the key places, but not by such a margin that can he can ta ke by such a margin that can he can take anything for granted and donald trump is not so far behind that he would think all is lost. tuesday is going to be a nailbiter. jon sopel, thank you, in washington. england world cup winner and manchester united legend sir bobby charlton has been diagnosed with dementia. sir bobby spent 17 years at old trafford, winning three league titles. his wife norma said she hopes the diagnosis could help others. football — and manchester city retained the women's fa cup after beating everton 3—1 in extra time at wembley. 0ur reporterjo currie was watching. being held six months later than planned because of covid, these players had had to wait a long
time for their moment on the biggest stage. it was the defending champions who leapt into the lead. sam mewis, a us world cup winner, heading them in front. but everton, they struck back. valerie gauvin had to have eyes in the back of her head for this one. neither side though could break the deadlock in 90 minutes, so into extra time they went. 19—year—old jess park finding england's georgia sta nway, who came off the bench pounce on her pass and put city in front again. with everton hearts broken, their heads dropped and janine beckie was able to make sure of the trophy on the full—time whistle. that settles the gap. the fa cup's a special trophy, not just for us as a club but myself personally. i think these finals don't come around often and when they do you want to win them. so it's a third win in four years in the fa cup for manchester city. they may not have their friends and family here to watch them but their dominance in this competition is now clearfor all to see. jo currie, bbc news. that it's from us.
now on bbc one it's time for the news where you are. hello. for some of us 0ctober has been a very wet month but there are signs of things looking drier and quieter through the first week of november. notjust yet — more rain in the forecast through this evening and overnight, courtesy of this frontal system. to the north of this we've got plenty of showers across northern scotland and northern ireland. they will tend to fade as the night wears on,some clear spells in between. that rain keeps going along the front but will tend to ease off as the night wears on, and further south we'll tend to keep a lot of cloud and that will produce some outbreaks of rain as well. very mild, though, further south, 15 or 16 celsius, more like four to six celsius further north. so our frontal system slides its way south and eastwards as we head through monday morning, but behind further showers along the spells of rain still pushing in from the west. notice the squeeze in the isobars — once again it's another windy day of the winds not as strong as what we saw through the weekend. it's the mixture, really, of sunshine and showers but those
showers will tend to merge particularly through parts of northern england and southern scotland to give a longer spell of rain at times. still some gusty winds, 50 to 60 mph, particularly for southern and western coasts and also for exposed hills as well, and just starting to feel a little bit cooler. 8 to 1a celsius the top temperature on monday afternoon. and still those showers or longer spells of rain continuing through monday evening, through northern ireland, parts of southern and western scotland, and into northern england as well. as we go from monday into tuesday, tuesday is somewhat of a transition day. it's still windy but those winds will be easing down and there'll still be some showers around. what we start to see is that colder air flooding across uk, so where recently it's been very mild, quite a difference in temperature, and also some outbreaks of rain affecting parts of southern and south—eastern england for a time on tuesday. some of that could be heavy. elsewhere, some sunshine but also some showers, particularly the further north and west you are. the winds will be lighter but still quite noticeable, particularly, again, for western and southern coasts.