tv World Business Report BBC News October 18, 2021 5:30am-6:01am BST
this is bbc news with the latest business headlines, for viewers in the uk and around the world. china's third quarter growth disappoints, coming in at 4.9% from a year ago, below market expectations. despite a recent drop in container freight prices, they remain at record highs. and the cost of care. $30 billion a year in wages as they take unpaid leave to support those closest to them. data out in the last hours showing that china's economic
recovery is losing steam. third quarter gdp showing that growth has fallen to 4.9% — well below a poll of analysts that reuters conducted. also a sign that power outages and supply chain bottlenecks are taking a toll on the world's second largest economy. it's the weakestpace since the third quarter of 2020 and slowing from 7.9% in the second quarter. joining me now isjinny yan, chief china economist at icbc standard bank. welcome, great to see you, what do you think these figures tell us? actually, things aren't too bad. i think the key indicators suggest that the main slowdown is coming from the industrial activity. we also know that we had flooding, power outages, and obviously those emission targets set by the central government trying to be delivered by local government.
but obviously perhaps too quickly, causing some outages in the certain sectors. and of course we have had local covid outbreaks, so given all of that i think isn't about performance. let's also remember, the first quarter gdp was double—digit growth, so evenif was double—digit growth, so even if we had 0% gdp growth in the final quarter of the year, china is still on target to achieve roughly between 7% and 8% gdp growth, which is still a remarkable pace. the key worry remains that the new drivers of the economy, particularly consumption, is still relatively weak, given that this will be at the main driver of gdp growth going forward. most major investment banks have trimmed their estimates
for the year, and we are seeing power cuts causing slumps and the market, are you seeing a drag down in growth ahead? it depends on your expectations for the entire year. certainly, there is enough tolerance. at there is enough tolerance. at the moment that a zero tolerance for high—risk sectors, particularly in the property sector but incredibly, in terms of the tolerance for reckless investment and leverage is certainly evidence to suggest policymakers won't act too quickly to support the economy. and of course let's not forget that policy support for the real economy — small and medium enterprises — those really weak sectors remain in place. given that the labour market is relatively strong, i do expect the continued policy to try and the risk of the
economy away from very risky assets, and asset bubbles will continue. sol assets, and asset bubbles will continue. so i do think that a slower gdp but a relatively robust consumption and capital remain. and what about evergrande, the indebted real estate developer? what is the expectations for china and the global economy? certainly for china, the property market has been very frothy. we have seen continued efforts to try and defrost that sector of the economy. overreliance on the sector, so notjust property developers but land sales, local government started to really mmp government started to really ramp up land sales in order to use land as collateral for further lending. all of that suggested this sector, in time, will need to be restricted and
controlled, particularly when property developers are taking advantage of higher property prices to invest into other sectors. fundamentally, ithink property developers will start to rain and their investments, particularly their debt overseas in order to serve the domestic market. of course, housing property affordability perhaps will start to improve from now on. jinny yan, great to see you, thank you for your thoughts. another issue that's weighing on chinese growth is of course the crisis over at property developer evergrande, as fears of contagion has intensified in recent weeks due to signs of trouble at other chinese developers. let's go to sarah toms in singapore who's following the story. hello, yes, as you said, one of the main strains on the chinese economy at the moment is of
course property sectors. in a rare public statement, chinese central bankers have come out to talk about the crisis of debt at evergrande, and that is after other property companies have been struggling to make payments themselves. central bankers are basically singling out the managers at evergrande and saying it is down to risk management that is causing the problem. they say the risks can still be contained and first off there will be looking at preventing the problems of evergrande from spreading to other property companies. they are also keeping an eye on companies and banks that could be at risk of default as a result. their highest priority is protecting consumers, they say, and also homebuyers. but, of course, we need to remember that investors of evergrande haven't heard a word about how
the company intends to repay any of its $300 billion of debt. you need to remember company has also missed three interest rate bond payments. adding to this is the fact that other property companies are also saying that they could be struggling to make loan payments due this week. this is all stoking fears that contagion could be spreading across the 5 trillion us dollars sector, really powering the chinese economy for the past few years. 0cean freight rates have been soaring this year as demand for goods picked back up after the pandemic triggered a sharp slump across sectors. 0n sought—after routes, such as from shanghai to rotterdam, freight prices have increased by an eye—watering 570% in the last 12 months. but shipping costs between asia and the us also dropped i6%
to rotterdam, freight prices have increased by an eye—watering 570% in the last 12 months. but shipping costs between asia and the us also dropped i6% last week, marking the first significant dip since august. costs for shipping containers have fallen by more than 51% on some routes between september and october. the spot rate for shipping a 40—foot container from china to los angeles has dropped from us $17,500 to us $8,500. joining me now is lars kenson, independent shipping analyst and ceo of vespucci maritime. welcome, hopefully you can explain this to us. this is a sign of the market being extremely unsettled. there was a massive bottleneck leading up to the holiday in china where everybody tried to move their cargo as early as possible. this basically means there wasn't enough space for everybody. now you have a slump, slowly some of these
massive port bottlenecks are beginning to improve slightly but there should not be taken as a sign that we are out of the woods yet. you would normally see this kind of effect right around now. there is still a significant risk that once you get to december things will pick up again and we may actually see bottlenecks becoming worse than what we have seen recently, and we may see freight rates soar to record high levels. why do you think that maybe? normally, you have another surge of cargo leading up to chinese new year which, in 2022, is a february one comment leading to a stampede of cargo in the month leading up to that. but, as people have added to their dismay, the supply change are extremely strained right now and you need to factor in several weeks of additional delay. so there is a high likelihood that all importers will basically do their homework and say, we need to build a buffer, we need to book earlier so you could see a potential stampede of cargo that wants to move in december,
and that will make matters worse. why has the cost of shipping containers dropped on at some of the roots? because you have the seasonal slump right now, you have all that cargo you want to cram it through the pipeline here a couple of weeks ago. so now you have a little bit of room, that is the effect you see but it is likely the effect may be temporary. and what about the wider picture? have more guards been transported around the world or is it pretty much at the usual pace? —— woods. slightly more than the usual pace. we are up some 3% or 4% compared to before the pandemic, globally. we have seen a fairly normal and benign growth over the past year. what has caused problems as especially in places like the us. the us imports have seen a substantial boom in volume, but that hasn't been the picture here. lars kenson, thank you for your thoughts and for being with us.
let's get some of the day's other news. facebook says it will will recruit 10,000 people in europe in the next half—a—decade, but the uk will be losing out. it's part of plans to create what it calls a �*metaverse�* — an online world where people exist and communicate in shared virtual spaces. last month the social media giant said it will invest $50 billion in the virtual reality project. melbourne is lifting stay at home orders this week. it comes as the double vaccination rate in australia's victoria state nears 70% vaccination. people in melbourne have faced a total of six lockdowns, amounting to 262days, since march 2020. australia is moving away from a covid—zero strategy toward living with the virus. hundreds of boeing workers have staged a protest over the planemaker's latest vaccination requirements. it follows boeing's announcement that it will require its 125,000 us employees to be vaccinated by december eight. the aerospace giant is complying with an executive order by presidentjoe biden, requiring federal contractors to make vaccines mandatory
for their employees. the uk chancellor rishi sunak is considering a cut to the 5% rate of value added tax on household energy bills, according to the financial times. such a move would come at a cost of roughly 1.5 billion pounds, or 2 billion dollars, but would allow prime minister borisjohnson to deliver a supposed brexit dividend and help families through a tough winter. some conservative mps have demanded sunak reduce the vat rate in his october 27 budget to show the government is responding to a looming cost of living crisis. joining me now is russ mould, investment director, aj bell. energy prices soaring is a huge worry, so this could be a big boost? i think the chancellor, if he decides to go down this path will be able to pitch this is good politics because it shows the government is listening. as you said, the government will
be keen to pitch less as a brexit dividend, because they are now not following european union tax rules on energy, and it will help those who are the little off in society get through winter. there are potential arguments against it. the chancellor will be wary of cutting value adding tax, the second biggest owner at a time when he struggles to balance the books, and you could argue it is a bit of a blow when it helps all assaults, notjust the poorest ones. and also encouraging energy usage ahead of the cop26 in glasgow coming up of the cop26 in glasgow coming up may not look great, you should be discouraging people from using fossil fuels, should be discouraging people from using fossilfuels, this is perpetuating behaviour. this would be unprecedented? yes, i think the chancellor would be very wary of cutting the bat. he did last year on food and drink and eating out to help out a certain industries through the pandemic but it is £150 billion of income when he is looking to raise around £750 billionjust to run a deficit, so he will be
very wary about writing that and making ita very wary about writing that and making it a habit. very wary about writing that and making ita habit. 0n the fuel side, the committee is looking at how to take us to a zero carbon future and perpetuating current behaviour and encouraged to use more fossil fuels, and encouraged to use more fossilfuels, burning more gas and oil would not be a step forward. a pretty blunt tool across the board, do you think they will look at other measures to help the poorest in society more specifically? i think that is perhaps the path he will go down. it may lower the overall cost from the 1.5 billion beggar. there are other mechanisms already in place. there is a winter fuel subsidy, a warm home subsidy for those over 65, and there's also a coldweather payment at the goes below 0 degrees for so many days. russ mould, great to see you. stay with us on bbc news, still to come: the cost of care. $30 billion a year in wages as they take unpaid leave to support those
closest to them. a historic moment that many of his victims have waited for for decades — the former dictator in the dock, older, slimmer and, as he sat down, obedient enough. dawn, and as the sun breaks through the piercing chill of night on the plain outside korem, it lights up a biblical famine, now, in the 20th century. the depressing conclusion — in argentina today, - it is actually cheaper— to paper your walls with money. we've had controversies in the past with great britain but as good friends, we have always found a good and lasting solution. concorde bows out in style after almost three decades in service. an aircraft that has enthralled its many admirers
for so long taxies home one last time. this is bbc world news. the latest headlines: mps from across the united kingdom will come together in the house of commons later to honour their murdered colleague, sir david amess. prime minister borisjohnson will lead the tributes. in an exclusive interview with the bbc, a taliban spokesman from the afghan ministry for vice and virtue denies banning girls from secondary education and puts the blame on them for not attending. every year, millions of people take on the burden of looking after loved ones in need and many are leaving theirjobs to do so. in the united states alone it is estimated that more than 50 million people about twice the population of texas serve as unpaid caregivers. and those caregivers
are missing out on at least $28.9 billion a year in wages as they take unpaid leave to support those closest to them. here's the story of one carer, zoe, who's been dealing with these problems firsthand. my my mother has alzheimer's and she is also in remission from breast cancer. she can't really do a lot for herself, unfortunately. i don't feel like people always understand how emotionally exhausting it can be because, quite frankly, i'm looking at the end of life for my mum. she is dying. if, for my mum. she is dying. if, for example, something goes wrong, it my mum is not being given medication, if the house has been left in a mess and even as i'm talking in my head
i'm thinking" oh, no, forgot to text this person about my mum. i've got to do the list for my mum." because i'm working full—time now, i would still consider myself as her primary carer, because if there was anything that were to fall through the gaps i would be the main contact. in terms of support at work, i would say that it has been a varied experience. i've had individual team leaders or supervisors that have been very, very understanding. however, are used to get about three hours of sleep a night, the consequence is that one time i did full asleep at work in a meeting in i was pulled aside by my manager and he told me quite bluntly that he didn't care about my personal circumstances, that i shouldn't be bringing them into work. there have been times that i've had to stop working because i
just wasn't confident that i could find the balance between committing myself to a role at work and just being there for my mum. i've been for interviews where the recruiters recommended that i write a statement explaining how i would look after my mum and balance work with that. one of the particular questions was "what would you do if your mum walked into traffic or if she walked into traffic or if she walked out of the house?" anai was quite stunned, to be honest, was caught off guard. it did make me feel like that i now had less to give as an active member of the workforce. that i was worthless than other people and should be expecting to receive less. the thing
about caring is that until you experience it as a person you don't necessarily understand the gravity of the role. you know, it's like trying to explain the colour purple to someone who can't see. and viewers on bbc world news can see more of that on talking business with aaron heslehurst this weekend. the times are on your screen now with the first airing at 2330gmt on saturday. today is world menopause day. low awareness amongst employers about the menopause is causing thousands of women each year to be absent from work, with 12% of women resigning due to their symptoms and a lack of understanding from their workplace. according to employment specialists at law firm irwin mitchell, the problem is likely to get worse unless policies are changed and women feel supported. joining me now isjenny arrowsmith, employment partner at irwin mitchell. welcome to you. thanks for being with us. how bad is this
situation? iii being with us. how bad is this situation?— situation? if we could 'ust look at what i situation? if we could 'ust look at what the i situation? if we could just i look at what the menopause situation? if we could just - look at what the menopause is, it is a natural part of ageing, so it will affect every woman, typically between mid—40s and mid—50s. and it lasts a number of years. so if you think that for .5 million women minimum within that age bracket, it is a significant problem for employers. it is the fastest growing within the uk working population. the symptoms are in such a wide range of areas, much more than you would, in terms of hot flushes, it extends to disrupted sleep, difficulty concentrating, as you said, that is impacting the work less, because 12% of women are reporting they have less work. it goes beyond that in terms of people reporting that they need to reduce the hours in order to cope and, actually, about 50% of women will have a
period of absence due to menopause symptoms. what is it that companies _ menopause symptoms. what is it that companies are _ menopause symptoms. what is it that companies are failing - menopause symptoms. what is it that companies are failing to - that companies are failing to do to respond to these women and their situation, what it is they need?— and their situation, what it is they need? welcome i think it is a lack of — they need? welcome i think it is a lack of education - they need? welcome i think it is a lack of education and - is a lack of education and understanding. what is clear is that women are saying they are significantly impacted and about 70% feel it is a negative impact on them during this period. but that doesn't seem to be something they feel confident report within the organisation stop so what we're saying is it is a business issue and businesses need to do more about educating their own employees and empowering women to come forward and say when they have got, when they are needing some support within the organisation. so that could be training line managersjust so that conversation is easier and line managers know exactly what to do, having some good signposting, loads of employers at the moment are doing a good
amount of work on well—being, support, and this really needs to be part of that conversation to be part of that conversation to help people who are impact did. that has to be a good thing, it will help retain the skills, stop that 12% leaving work, and reduce the impact of absence in the workplace. crosstalk. because typically they won't say when they are absent. crosstalk. why do you think that is? is it seen as an ageist thing wherever women say are going through the perimenopause or the menopause that they will be aged out of the workforce? i think that is probably right. they are embarrassed about some of the symptoms, the symptoms are very sensitive. it is quite bracing to speak about it. by then there is a real fear of how they will be perceived. it isn't a protected characteristic in law. the women having to bring claims, if they are bringing claims,
under other forms if they are bringing claims, under otherforms of under other forms of discrimination under otherforms of discrimination in under other forms of discrimination in workplaces, such as disability, there have been a number of cases starting to emerge on that in recent years stop i think there is an education for women as well, because some women don't really know what is happening to their bodies and just know they are feeling more anxious or getting an increase in migraines or are waking up in the night for no reason whatsoever and perhaps not linking matt also to these changes are not going to the gp and getting support and what lifestyle changes need to be made to help reduce the symptoms. made to help reduce the symptom-— made to help reduce the s mtoms. , , ~ ., , symptoms. 0k, jenny arrowsmith, thank ou symptoms. 0k, jenny arrowsmith, thank you very _ symptoms. 0k, jenny arrowsmith, thank you very much. _ symptoms. 0k, jenny arrowsmith, thank you very much. it _ symptoms. 0k, jenny arrowsmith, thank you very much. it is - thank you very much. it is certainly a conversation we all need to be having. thanks a lot. absolutely, thanks a lot. before we go, looking at how the asian markets are faring today. tokyo stocks reversed early and entered positive as investors awaited corporate earnings injapan's upcoming earnings in japan's upcoming general election. earnings injapan's upcoming general election. some central banks are preparing for rate hikes. that is it from me for
the moment. you can reach me on twitter. i'm @samanthatvnews. if you're on bbc world news you can continue watching after the short break. goodbye for now. hello. i fancy you'll be delving into different sections of your autumn wardrobe through the week ahead. certainly some waterproofs required during the first half — we're going to see spells of wet and windy weather, punctuated by some sunnier moments, but temperatures will be a big contrast as well. to start the week, with low pressure across the atlantic, we're actually going to drag our air up from the tropics — some unusually mild air coming ourway. but as that low pressure pushes its way eastwards, we may see the return of sunshine more widely, but there will be a brief shot ofarctic air coming in from the north. that's a long way off to begin with, though, and it's the mild air taking hold through monday, beginning pretty mild notes for many for many in the morning rush hour. coolest with single—figure temperatures across the midlands, east anglia, south—east. best of the sunshine here lasting longest through the day as well. rain through the morning rush hour in northern ireland, spreading in across wales, western england and scotland during the morning and into the afternoon.
and a bit further eastwards, it's not arriving to the channel islands, east anglia, south—east until later in the afternoon, and for some maybe not even into the evening. brighter conditions to end the day in some western parts but still fairly cloudy. temperatures, though, above where we'd normally expect this stage in mid october. heavy rain to end the day, then. east anglia and south—east, that gradually clears away. some dry conditions for a time overnight. best of the clear weather to the north and east but more wet and increasingly windy weather starting to push in from the south—west. probably one of the mildest nights of the week, then, monday night into tuesday, with temperatures higher in the morning then we'd normally expect during the afternoon! and that's because we have still got that area of low pressure just to the west of us, dragging in southerly winds. the warmest of the airjust ahead of these weather fronts which are going to spread rain more extensively across the country on tuesday. some heavy bursts, fairly erratic, that movement, northwards and eastwards, some seeing higher rainfall totals than others. brightening up across ireland later on, adding some afternoon sunshine potentially in east anglia and the south—east — even if it's on the hazy side. we could see temperatures get up to around 21 degrees. this stage in october, your average temperatures are around 10—14 degrees across the country.
and we could be probably around those values through night and into thursday morning. low pressure still around across the country through wednesday night, and we're going to see more in the area of low pressure systems spreading their way northwards and eastwards. this one will bring heavy rain at times through the central swathe of the country, brightening up on the southern flank of it before more wet and windy weather arrives. not a bad day through the northern half of scotland, and sunshine and showers later in northern ireland. but whilst we'll see temperatures 17 or 18 in the south and east, it's turning cold across the north. that cooling trend continues into thursday.
this good morning, welcome to breakfast with dan walker and sally nugent. 0ur headlines today. "set aside hatred" — a plea for tolerance from the family of murdered mp sir david amess. his former colleagues will hold a minute's silence today, before paying their tributes to sir david in the house of commons. solutions for saving the planet — the first million pound winners of prince william's earthshot prize have been announced. we don't have eternity. we need to do this now, and over the next years. good morning. a big rise in the number of people falling victim to online recruitment fraud. seven out of ten job seekers came across a fake advert in the first six