do with, this is bbc news with the latest business headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. fears of supply chain chaos as covid surges again in china, plunging millions back into lockdown. plus: a million pounds donated every hour. we look at the huge fundraising response to the humanitarian crisis in ukraine.

we start with the global cost of borrowing because the federal reserve has raised its key interest rate for the first time since 2018 despite concerns about the war in ukraine. at the start of the pandemic, the us central bank slashed borrowing costs to almost zero, flooding the global economy with cheap money. but now with us inflation soaring at its fastest rate in a0 years, it's turning off the taps. as the bbc�*s north america business correspondent michelle fleury now reports from new york. the united states like many countries is struggling with higher living costs, for rent to food and especially fuel. it's gone up 25,20 6

to food and especially fuel. it's gone up 25, 20 6 cents. it's gone up 25,20 6 cents. t his_ it's gone up 25,20 6 cents. this drive — it's gone up 25,20 6 cents. this drive is being squeezed by record high petrol prices. they have surged even more since russia invaded ukraine. this is m rent russia invaded ukraine. this is my rent money— russia invaded ukraine. this is my rent money and _ russia invaded ukraine. this is my rent money and my - my rent money and my bill money. if i can't drive this takes the money out of my pocket. it's harderfor me takes the money out of my pocket. it's harder for me to take care of my rent.- pocket. it's harder for me to take care of my rent. that pain at the punt— take care of my rent. that pain at the punt also _ take care of my rent. that pain at the punt also felt _ take care of my rent. that pain at the punt also felt by - take care of my rent. that pain at the punt also felt by the - at the punt also felt by the super driver.— at the punt also felt by the super driver. the car is run on as but super driver. the car is run on gas but the — super driver. the car is run on gas but the economy - super driver. the car is run on gas but the economy runs - super driver. the car is run on gas but the economy runs on | super driver. the car is run on i gas but the economy runs on gas as well, the whole house of cards comes down.- as well, the whole house of cards comes down. trying to sto the cards comes down. trying to stop the house _ cards comes down. trying to stop the house of _ cards comes down. trying to stop the house of cards - cards comes down. trying to | stop the house of cards from collapsing the world's most powerful central bank, the federal reserve raised its key interest rates by a quarter percentage point signalling six more rate hikes is year. the chair said he thought the economy was strong enough to withstand efforts to tape inflation, currently at a a0 year high. inflation, currently at a 40 year high-—

inflation, currently at a 40 ear hiuh. ~ ., , ., year high. we need to use our tools to guide _ year high. we need to use our tools to guide inflation - year high. we need to use our tools to guide inflation back . tools to guide inflation back down to 2%, and that will be in the context of extraordinarily strong labour market, we think this labour market can handle, as i mentioned, tighter monetary policy. in the overall economy can as well.- monetary policy. in the overall economy can as well. some fear a rerun of— economy can as well. some fear a rerun of the _ economy can as well. some fear a rerun of the great _ economy can as well. some fear a rerun of the great inflation - a rerun of the great inflation of the 1970s, when the government hit by all prices worsening living standards for years. worsening living standards for ears. " :: , worsening living standards for ears. " i: , ., years. the 1970s were a haunting _ years. the 1970s were a haunting error - years. the 1970s were a haunting error and - years. the 1970s were a | haunting error and there years. the 1970s were a - haunting error and there is the risk of stagflation out there, they don't want to see the inflation we have got become more entrenched and over a period of time there were two decades the 1960s and 1970s, he road living standards. the s - ectre road living standards. the spectre of _ road living standards. the spectre of the _ road living standards. the spectre of the 1970s - road living standards. the spectre of the 1970s loom large, policy makers keen to avoid a repeat of fighting inflation back then. the fed is

trying to perform a delicate balancing act moving fast enough to keep a lid on runaway inflation but not so fast tips the world �*s largest economy into recession. all eyes now turn to other central banks around the world, who find themselves facing similar dilemmas. michelle fleury, bbc news, new york. as we heard from michelle there, all eyes are now on the world's other top central banks. in a few hours time, the bank of england is expected to follow suit — raising rates by a quarter of a percentage point. it would take uk borrowing costs back to where they were before the pandemic. kallum pickering is senior economist at berenberg private bank here in london. welcome to the programme. before we look at the bank of england, whose meeting is later today, give us your thoughts on the federal reserve, we were

expecting a quarter point rates rise, it was priced in. what about your own pal had to say an indication he sees as well each next meeting next year we are seeing rates go up in the us? . are seeing rates go up in the us? ., , ., , us? . the fed has found itself in an unfortunate _ us? . the fed has found itself in an unfortunate position - in an unfortunate position where it will have to add to the cost of levelling problem to tape inflation. it wants to. now it faces a lot of uncertainty and it's essentially tapping the brakes and history tells us it's very hard to achieve a soft landing drone powell is aiming for. also he kept the door open for increments to be larger than a quarter percentage each time, indicating we could see a half % rise at some of these meetings depending on what's happening?— meetings depending on what's haueninu? . ., happening? central banks have

clumsy tools. _ happening? central banks have clumsy tools, they _ happening? central banks have clumsy tools, they are - happening? central banks have clumsy tools, they are good . happening? central banks have clumsy tools, they are good in | clumsy tools, they are good in a crisis they can flood the world with cash, with liquidity, but during the upswing you need to see into the future to see how much you need to act, but no—one can see into the future so we have a central bank guessing how much the brakes need to be supplied we have war, high inflation and severe supply chain issues coming from china false. let's talk about _ coming from china false. let's talk about andrew _ coming from china false. let's talk about andrew bailey - coming from china false. let's talk about andrew bailey and l talk about andrew bailey and his team at the bank of england, your thoughts on what they will announce today? everyone is expecting it to follow bed and hike interest rates they have done that twice, we might be surprised the bank of england will remain on hold. the risk to inflation on hold. the risk to inflation on the war are two sided, in the near term commodity prices and energy will go up, if people engage in precautionary behaviour because of the fear factor that comes with war that may depress demand, it will be two months before we know what

is more likely so it makes sense for central banks not to do anything for a while. you are saying _ do anything for a while. you are saying we _ do anything for a while. you are saying we should - do anything for a while. you are saying we should air on the side of caution, some criticising the bank of england for not being proactive sooner. i was there in the middle of last year when they should have hiked interest rates earlier, now the outlook for the economy is unclear and this may be a just inflationary event, it makes sense for the banking community to be data dependent and see what is coming. by made we will know if will tip the economy into recession or it will create more inflation, at that point you can easily compensate. let's stay with the soaring cost of living. the conflict in ukraine has of course seen prices for basic commodities — like fuel, fertilizer and food sky—rocket around the world. businesses here in the uk are calling for help from the chancellor, ahead of next week's spring statement.

as our business editor simonjack reports now, from south shields, in the north east of england. as cheap as chips. doesn't quite ring true when you look at the prices of what goes into making those british favourites, story of food price inflation in a box. since last year the price of white hair which russia is a major supplier is a 50%, the price of potatoes up 30%, even peas, have seen a 100% increase. and the energy to cook it, a whopping a00% russia related rise, to businesses who are not protected by a price. the owner richard says many local chippies won't survive. irate richard says many local chippies won't survive. we have seen lots of _ chippies won't survive. we have seen lots of shocks _ chippies won't survive. we have seen lots of shocks already - seen lots of shocks already that haven't been able to recover the price increases, unfortunately, things are getting worse, the sooner we can get something sorted with

the price increases the bit or we will see a lot of fish and chip go. ah. we will see a lot of fish and chi no. �* , ., we will see a lot of fish and chi co. m ., , chip go. a similar story in the su -l chip go. a similar story in the supply chain- _ chip go. a similar story in the supply chain. these - chip go. a similar story in the supply chain. these local - chip go. a similar story in the j supply chain. these local chip sho -s in supply chain. these local chip sheps in the _ supply chain. these local chip shops in the north _ supply chain. these local chip shops in the north of - supply chain. these local chip| shops in the north of england. this potato grower is cutting back production and won't be sewing in this field. straightaway the fertiliser has tripled, electric has tripled, the haulage has not doubled but it will be there very shortly. we will definitely lose money if we plant this year, i dread to think we will be losing this and this one little field. there is sunshine on the coast but the outlook for businesses and their customers seem bleak. the war in ukraine seems a long way from the speech but the soaring price of potatoes, fish, oil, the energy to cook them part due to that conflict, it's causing a cost of living in a cost of doing business emergency, which has arrived on

these shores, and that firms we work for and services we buy are now desperate for some kind of financial lifeline. but adding to the burden on companies and consumers a planned tax hike in april, the chancellor needs to change course at his spring statement next week according to business chief. . ., , next week according to business chief. . , ., chief. increase costs from every side. _ chief. increase costs from every side, raw— chief. increase costs from | every side, raw materials, labour crisis the perfect storm so we have two key asks for the chancellor, one is delay the national insurance increases in april and let's find a way to protect businesses from some of the energy price rises with a price. the energy price rises with a rice. ., price. the government said it recognises — price. the government said it recognises the _ price. the government said it recognises the impact - price. the government said it recognises the impact gas . recognises the impact gas prices are having on businesses and looking the best way to support them, this global crisis is making economic and political waves, crisis is making economic and politicalwaves, right crisis is making economic and political waves, right here at home. let's bring in swetha ramachandran — investment manager at gam investments. good morning to you. i'm sure

you were listening to that report. do you think the chancellor would have something for businesses, and for households in his spring statement? i households in his spring statement?— households in his spring statement? ~ , , , statement? i think the pressure is on household _ statement? i think the pressure is on household in _ statement? i think the pressure is on household in terms - statement? i think the pressure is on household in terms of - is on household in terms of disposable income is getting squeezed from rising energy prices and other inflationary shocks have risen to a level where a policy response seems highly likely stop there is pressure on him and the government to do something about what's been called the cost of living crisis. but about what's been called the cost of living crisis.— cost of living crisis. but the psychology _ cost of living crisis. but the psychology behind - cost of living crisis. but the psychology behind this - cost of living crisis. but the psychology behind this is i psychology behind this is important, as callum was saying when it comes to consumer confidence, and what they think might happen in the weeks and months ahead that pink arab economy? i months ahead that pink arab economy?— economy? i think recent geopolitical _ economy? i think recent geopolitical tensions - economy? i think recent i geopolitical tensions have dampened that feelgood factor in place as the country was exiting the pandemic and had a way forward, it will be important considering household

spending constitutes 65% of uk gdp to give consumers their confidence in order to carry on with our lives. in confidence in order to carry on with our lives.— confidence in order to carry on with our lives. in terms of how effective interest _ with our lives. in terms of how effective interest rate - effective interest rate increases will be, the federal reserve has made its move, the bank of england will make a decision today. how soon will it cause inflation to come down, how effective will it will be? in down, how effective will it will be? ., down, how effective will it will be? . , will be? in the near term it is hirhl will be? in the near term it is highly unlikely _ will be? in the near term it is highly unlikely these - will be? in the near term it is highly unlikely these rate - highly unlikely these rate increases will dampen inflation significantly because the source is at the root of these energy supply shocks and supply chain problems continuing. the recent problem with china going into lockdown, anecdotes from carmakers in germany stalling production because they can't get components or by harnesses from ukraine, italian fishing boats are on strike because the price of oil for fishing boats

have gone up 90% year on year. all of this is having a knock on impact on supply chain and immediate inflation, and that will take more time to time than a 25 point basis rate rise overnight stop where are you. where are you about the debate about when we could be heading into recession in the uk, europe and the us? it’s europe and the us? it's important _ europe and the us? it's important to _ europe and the us? it�*s important to remember where we were before these geopolitical tensions that, firm footing, the labour market improvement, the labour market improvement, the record high level of vacancies for everyjob advertised, suggested how strong the labour market was prior to all of this. there is no doubt current events have proved the damage to growth but we are some way off of recession just yet. recession 'ust yet. we'll take that, that’— recession just yet. we'll take that, that positive _ recession just yet. we'll take that, that positive tone. - stay with us on bbc news, still to come:

we will hear about the mammoth ukraine fundraising campaign. £1 million an hour. i had this feeling that i'm entering a prison.- i had this feeling that i'm entering a prison. there is a human story- _ entering a prison. there is a human story. this _ entering a prison. there is a human story. this is - entering a prison. there is a human story. this is our - entering a prison. there is a i human story. this is our world. they treated — human story. this is our world. they treated me _ human story. this is our world. they treated me as _ human story. this is our world. they treated me as if _ human story. this is our world. they treated me as if i - human story. this is our world. they treated me as if i was - human story. this is our world. they treated me as if i was the | they treated me as if i was the suspect — they treated me as if i was the suspect it_ they treated me as if i was the susect. �* , , they treated me as if i was the susect. . , , ., suspect. a series of documentary - suspect. a series of documentary films | suspect. a series of - documentary films revealing suspect. a series of _ documentary films revealing the human drama at the heart of world events.

this is bbc world news, the latest headlines: two british iranians have arrived back in the uk after being jailed for undermining the iranians state, which they both denied. ukrainian officials say a theatre being used as shelter for civilians in mariupol has been destroyed. russia has denied attacking it. let's move to asia now, where there are fears of chaos on global supply chains as covid infections surge again. tens of millions of people across china face restrictions, with tech hub shenzhen and the whole ofjilin province now under lockdown. several multinational firms have been forced to halt operations. 0ur china correspondent

stephen mcdonell has more. people are coming to this beijing hospitalfor people are coming to this beijing hospital for covid test and there are scenes like this right across china at the moment, from the north to the south, you will find the 0micron variant, and it is posing a major challenge to the chinese government's complete elimination, zero covid strategy. pretty much everywhere in china is facing the effect of these outbreaks, but the responses of indifferent from local government area to the next. in some parts of the country there are citywide lockdowns, with strict stay at home orders leaving streets empty. analysts are asking how long china can keep shutting down entire cities, even entire provinces, without doing massive damage to the economy. lockdowns in the high—tech factory cities of shands and and guangdong are hitting international supply

chains. —— shenzen and guangdong. within china, many products are not available to be delivered at the moment. then there is the impact on chinese companies are restricting tens of millions of consumers to their homes. international flights into shanghai are being diverted to other airports. shanghai are being diverted to otherairports. in shanghai are being diverted to other airports. in some cities, restaurants are closed and long—distance transport connections have been suspended. in the past, china has been able to squash each and every outbreak of covid. the public has been part of this by going along with the government's strategies, but you wonder how long they will keep putting up with this. china's policymakers are watching how covid progresses and other countries, with people here already starting to say that eventually, china, too, is going to have to trust in its vaccines, switch policies and learn how to live with covid. that was stephen mcdonald. another spanner in the works when it comes to global supply

chains. daniel stanton is a supply chain expert and author of the book supply chain management for dummies. he's in the us in the city of charlotte, north carolina. good to have you on the programme. from your perspective at the moment, as to what is going on in parts of china, your thoughts on the impact it will have? for sure, the regions — impact it will have? for sure, the regions that _ impact it will have? for sure, the regions that are - impact it will have? for sure, the regions that are being - the regions that are being affected are critical manufacturing hubs for electronic components and manufactured parts that going to all kinds of likes we all depend on every day, from household appliances to industrial equipment to automobiles. so the longer the shutdown lasts, the greater the probability we will see those effect, you know, the good news and the bad news is, those effects will not emerge immediately, right? but there will be a delayed impact. the products that should be being made now are things we would expect to see in factories and retail stores and 30, 60, maybe

even 180 days. so that is when we will start to feel the pain of the actions being taken now. and there could be a dual impact in terms of, we are still waiting for the impact of the war in ukraine, and how that will affect supply chains of other commodities? absolutely. we all want supply chains to be efficient. that is how we get things that we want and we get them cheaply and reliably. so supply chains like predictable, stable supply and demand. unfortunately, what we have been dealing with for two plus years now is a series of surprises and major shocks and disruptions that prevent supply chains from operating efficiently and lead to shortages, stockouts, delayed, and all of that ultimately increases uncertainty and

increases uncertainty and increases cost across the entire supply chain. but businesses _ entire supply chain. but businesses have - entire supply chain. but businesses have adapted to this, haven't they? they have learned how to work, how to roll with the punches, as it were. but as a positive now, isn't it? i were. but as a positive now, isn't it? ~ ., were. but as a positive now, isn't it? ~' ., ., isn't it? i think we have got better at — isn't it? i think we have got better at it. _ isn't it? i think we have got better at it. but _ isn't it? i think we have got better at it. but there - isn't it? i think we have got better at it. but there are l isn't it? i think we have got better at it. but there are a lot of things we can't control, things that i've seen businesses doing that i think are really positive as a result of all these disruptions is that they have focused a lot more on planning, looking ahead out what they are going to need and when they are going to need it, they focus a lot on disability, where did the products and services that they buy come from? and notjust first year, the suppliers, but the second and third tier is, to really understand what their supply chains look like. the other thing i have seen is that companies are becoming more transparent, so is bigger about visibility information, they are more willing to share it with their own customers and suppliers, so that we can all collaborate, and when we identify an issue like what is

happening in china, we are in a position to work together to try to maybe not fix it, but come up with the best solution and unfortunate circumstance none of us could really control. none of us could really control-— control. 0k, really interesting. - control. 0k, really interesting. daniel control. 0k, really- interesting. daniel stanton, thank you, and thank you for staying up for us, it is the early hours of the morning where you are. good to have you on the programme. thank you. happy to do it. over 2.3 million people have fled ukraine so far — half of them children. and according to the un, in all, 12 million people are now in need of life—saving assistance, almost a third of the country's population. the scale of the humanitarian crisis has prompted a vast fund—raising response. the disasters emergency committee, made up of 15 uk charities — says it has already raised £150 million via its ukraine appeal, receiving donations in its first four days at a rate of £1 million an hour. vishnee sauntoo is from the charity age international, which is a member of the disasters emergency committee.

an incredible response from people in the uk in terms of giving, but that is a huge responsibility for your organisation to know where to distribute and to whom, isn't it? ,., ., ., , ., it? good morning. yes, we are very grateful — it? good morning. yes, we are very grateful to _ it? good morning. yes, we are very grateful to the _ it? good morning. yes, we are very grateful to the uk - it? good morning. yes, we are very grateful to the uk public, | very grateful to the uk public, they have been absolutely wonderful, and really responded to our call for donations, and you are right, it is a big responsibility for us. however, we have got 15 members who are all very experienced in humanitarian disasters, and i galvanised and in place and i giving aid to those who need it. it giving aid to those who need it. , ., giving aid to those who need it. , . ., ., ., giving aid to those who need it. it is a great idea, to work together— it. it is a great idea, to work together as _ it. it is a great idea, to work together as aid _ it. it is a great idea, to work i together as aid organisations, together as aid organisations, to collaborate, to put all your

best ideas in place. how do you decide on allocation of all this money?— decide on allocation of all this money? decide on allocation of all this mone ? ., , ., , this money? how this works is, we have 15 _ this money? how this works is, we have 15 agencies _ this money? how this works is, we have 15 agencies of- this money? how this works is, we have 15 agencies of all- we have 15 agencies of all different sizes, they'll do different sizes, they'll do different work, my organisation focuses on older people, there are others focused on children and others on the general public. it depends on the size of the organisation and what their needs are. so each time there is a disaster, disaster emergency committee assesses that situation, what their needs are, we are on the ground and we can tell what we need and we can tell what we need and the dc allocates those funds to us.— and the dc allocates those funds to us. what is the best response _ funds to us. what is the best response for _ funds to us. what is the best response for people - funds to us. what is the best response for people who - funds to us. what is the best | response for people who want funds to us. what is the best - response for people who want to help? i know that i, as all of us, we have been involved in various fundraising efforts, but also the giving of things like sanitary products and blankets and clothing, etc. what is the best response in this situation? $5 what is the best response in

this situation?— what is the best response in this situation? as you can see, the general — this situation? as you can see, the general public _ this situation? as you can see, the general public has - this situation? as you can see, the general public has been . the general public has been amazing, giving what they can. for some people that is goods and for other people it is money. fast, the best thing is money. fast, the best thing is money because then we are able to buy purchase what people need at the time, what we need today isn't quite what we need tomorrow. so the best thing is money and then we can buy and adjust as we go and give them the right age that they need. just briefly, we don't have much time left, but how much of the money given is paying for the money given is paying for the admin of all of this? you know, your salary, those others who are working, etc? 50. know, your salary, those others who are working, etc?— who are working, etc? so, the averare who are working, etc? so, the average appeal— who are working, etc? so, the average appeal is _ who are working, etc? so, the average appeal is about, - who are working, etc? so, the average appeal is about, 10%| average appeal is about, 10% will go on the organising the appeal, all the work that happens towards that and all the allocation, and the rest of it will go to where it is needed. it will go to where it is needed-— it will go to where it is needed. ~ ., ,, , ., it will go to where it is needed. ~ ., ,, ., needed. well, thank you for talkinu needed. well, thank you for talking to — needed. well, thank you for talking to us _ needed. well, thank you for talking to us about - needed. well, thank you for talking to us about the - talking to us about the disasters emergency committee and what you are doing at the moment. and of course, that

opportunity to give is still open, if you wish to give to the dec you can do so. we are now out of time, thanks for your company, you're up to date on all business and news. hello there. there's going to be a different look to the weather on thursday and a change of fortune for much of the country as well. with the rain having cleared away, we had the sunnier skies across more western parts of scotland. there was almost an inch of rain in wiltshire and, for a while, we actually had some quite heavy rain here in lincolnshire as well. with that wetter weather clearing away out into the north sea and these showers yet to arrive from the northwest, we're going to have some clearer skies developing. so, by the time we get to early thursday morning, it could be quite cold and frosty in a few places. temperatures will be close to freezing, maybe down to —a or so in the northeast of scotland. we'll find those showers coming in from the northwest across scotland and northern ireland — notjust one band of showers, but two, and they could be quite heavy as well.

some sunshine in between. those showers tending to die out as they move over the irish sea, one or two in the afternoon for northern parts of england and wales. but for much of england and wales, it will be dry with more the way of sunshine this time and lighter winds towards the southeast — temperatures here making 1a, perhaps even 15 degrees. we do have some weakening weather fronts moving down from the northwest, bringing those bands of showers, but high pressure is going to be building by the end of the week, so it looks like it'll be dry on friday. could have some moisture left over from the earlier showers, giving this patchy mist and fog across parts of wales and the midlands. that will tend to lift, and we'll see a good deal of sunshine, i think, on friday, the breeze starting to pick up in some areas later in the day, but those temperatures are tending to climb as well. 13 degrees in the central belt of scotland, 15 or 16 perhaps in the east midlands and towards the fens. the weekend remains quiet and dry as well. a lot of sunshine around this

weekend, but we're likely to have some stronger winds, too. after a chilly—ish start, i think, on saturday, it looks like a fine spring day — lots of sunshine around, dry day, but a noticeably stronger east or southeasterly wind, which means the highest temperatures are likely to be along the coast of northwest england and around the moray firth — 16 or 17 celsius. high pressure in charge this weekend. the centre of the high is drifting to the east of the uk, allowing these stronger winds to arrive and maybe threatening one or two showers in the evening on sunday in the far southeast of england. 0therwise, sunday is a dry day. temperatures a little bit lower. we may see a bit more cloud on monday and perhaps one or two showers.

good morning, welcome to breakfast with naga munchetty and charlie stayt. 0ur headlines today. the moment nazanin zaghari—ratcliffe is reunited with her seven—year—old daughter and husband after almost six years of detention in iran. she touches down in the uk alongside fellow detainee anoosheh ashoori, who was arrested in iran in 2017. crying. a long—awaited family reunion, they thank campaigning and diplomatic efforts for making them whole. in ukraine, president zelensky accuses russia of intentionally dropping a bomb on a theatre in mariupol where hundreds of people were sheltering.

translation: the world must finally l officially recognise that russia has l