hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. a uk recession lasting until the end of next year — the grim forecast today from the bank of england. with inflation set to hit 13%, the bank has just annonced the steepest rise in interest rates for 27 years. china fires missiles across taiwan and into japanese territory, as it continues the build—up of military exercises. and a russian court has given the us basketballer player brittney griner a nine—year sentence for carrying cannabis oil through airport security. tonight with the context, former conservative cabinet secretary justine greening, and the long—time capitol hill correspondent and now washington post live anchor, leigh ann caldwell.

stagflation has been... after announcing the single biggest great ride since 1995, interest rates now at 1.75%, the governor told us the recession later this year will be long, and as long as the one we endured through the financial crisis, as deep as that in the 19905. crisis, as deep as that in the 1990s. on top of that, they forecast the average household energy bill will be three times what it was a year ago, will be three times what it was a yearago, by will be three times what it was a year ago, by october, atjust under £300 a month.

here's the governor of the bank of england, andrew bailey. through energy prices. we've got to be blunt about this, it's coming from the actions of russia. gas prices since may is a big impact, _ gas prices since may is a big impact, as_ gas prices since may is a big impact, as what off gem announced this morning. i'm afraid it's passing _ this morning. i'm afraid it's passing directly into inflation and it will_ passing directly into inflation and it will have an effect on the economy. as you say, yes we are forecasting — economy. as you say, yes we are forecasting a recession. our business presenter, tadhg enright, told us more about the blunt warning from andrew bailey. we have known for some time that a recession was coming, but the forecast of the duration was a surprise. we are not talking about a short recession, it will actually be prolonged. they have forecasted to continue throughout next year, inflation caused by the surge in

energy prices the main cause. energy forecast to peak at 13% in october this year and well into next year. —— inflation. this year and well into next year. -- inflation-— -- inflation. justine, lot of inflation — -- inflation. justine, lot of inflation at _ -- inflation. justine, lot of inflation at the _ -- inflation. justine, lot of inflation at the moment i -- inflation. justine, lot of inflation at the moment is| inflation at the moment is supply—side driven, andrew bailey says a lot is down to the rising cost of energy. so a lot of people watching will wonder how, when they are already struggling to pay their bills, putting up interest rates that will in turn put up their mortgage payments, how on earth is that the answer?— that the answer? yes, and i think it's bad news _ that the answer? yes, and i think it's bad news for _ that the answer? yes, and i think it's bad news for everyone - that the answer? yes, and i think it's bad news for everyone in - that the answer? yes, and i think i it's bad news for everyone in terms of what andrew bailey, the governor of what andrew bailey, the governor of the bank of england, was saying today. the monetary policy committee that took this decision was 8—1 in favour, so no ambiguity around whether or not the rates were going to go up. it's bad forfamilies facing higher interest payments on mortgages, debt, and we are seeing the wider inflation problem, it's

bad for business as we have heard today, that we are looking at a prolonged recession that is both deeper and longer than we had previously expected. it's also worth bearing in mind that it's bad for government, who have significant debt, and for every 0.25% rise in interest rates, we saw a 0.5% rise today, it adds £6 million in interest debt payment per annum to the coffers of the treasury. so effectively they will see a squeeze in public finances the more that interest rates go up. the challenge for the bank of england, it has to take these steps it thinks, to bear down on inflation. similar step taken by the european central bank, the fed, and many economists would criticise the bank of england for not acting earlier on interest rates, but it is bad news for people and businesses across the country. it does upend the entire fiscal

debate, the numbers that the entire leadership contest has been fought on. they have perpetually talked about this £30 billion a head room that they have, but they don't, because the cost of borrowing is about to go up and payments are about to go up and payments are about to go down. it about to go up and payments are about to go down.— about to go up and payments are about to go down. it shows you are onl auoin about to go down. it shows you are only going to _ about to go down. it shows you are only going to get — about to go down. it shows you are only going to get through - about to go down. it shows you are only going to get through this - only going to get through this crisis by not having a short—term economic strategy but also a longer term economic strategy, and we need to have a clear analysis of what element of inflation we are facing is prolonged and bedded in versus these covid supply chain driven bits of inflation that we think can steadily pass through. in the meantime, government will need to take formal steps in order to support people on the front line, caught up in this crisis, particularly the most vulnerable, the elderly and people on fixed incomes and welfare. and the elderly and people on fixed incomes and welfare.— the elderly and people on fixed incomes and welfare. and that it is also the hardest _ incomes and welfare. and that it is also the hardest hit _

incomes and welfare. and that it is also the hardest hit in _ incomes and welfare. and that it is also the hardest hit in america - incomes and welfare. and that it is also the hardest hit in america as. also the hardest hit in america as well. credit card balances are ballooning in america at the moment in the quickest rate in decades. looking at credit card debt, it has surged a0 $6 billion in the last quarter, a 13%jump from last surged a0 $6 billion in the last quarter, a 13% jump from last year, the biggest increase in 20 years. 233 million new accounts between april and june, which tells me a lot of people are putting their groceries and fuel, things they can't afford, on credit.- can't afford, on credit. that's riaht, can't afford, on credit. that's right. but _ can't afford, on credit. that's right. but the _ can't afford, on credit. that's right, but the data _ can't afford, on credit. that's right, but the data is - can't afford, on credit. that's right, but the data is also - can't afford, on credit. that's - right, but the data is also showing that people are still spending on retaii— that people are still spending on retail goods, and other things as well, _ retail goods, and other things as well, still— retail goods, and other things as well, still going out to eat in the united _ well, still going out to eat in the united states. the biden administration points out that as why we — administration points out that as why we are not currently in a recession. _ why we are not currently in a recession, despite two consecutive quarters _ recession, despite two consecutive quarters of— recession, despite two consecutive quarters of negative growth. they point _ quarters of negative growth. they point to _ quarters of negative growth. they point to people still spending, they say the _ point to people still spending, they say the job numbers are still extremely low, we are going to get new extremely low, we are going to get newjob _ extremely low, we are going to get newjob numbers tomorrow morning.

but there _ newjob numbers tomorrow morning. but there is— newjob numbers tomorrow morning. but there is a huge debate on if there _ but there is a huge debate on if there is a — but there is a huge debate on if there is a recession or not, and tied _ there is a recession or not, and tied into — there is a recession or not, and tied into that debate is of course inflation, — tied into that debate is of course inflation, which is the biggest concern — inflation, which is the biggest concern to americans now, the cost of gas, _ concern to americans now, the cost of gas, even — concern to americans now, the cost of gas, even though it has gone down consecutively for the past seven weeks _ consecutively for the past seven weeks or— consecutively for the past seven weeks or so, it is still increasingly high. so as far as the administration is doing, they say it's a _ administration is doing, they say it's a difficult economy in some respects— it's a difficult economy in some respects but a good economy in other respects _ respects but a good economy in other respects as — respects but a good economy in other respects. as bailey in your country said, _ respects. as bailey in your country said. there — respects. as bailey in your country said, there could be a recession, but our— said, there could be a recession, but our officials are still denying that is— but our officials are still denying that is the — but our officials are still denying that is the case, they say that even though it's — that is the case, they say that even though it's tough, there is no guarantee of recession in the united states _ guarantee of recession in the united states. , , , . ., states. interesting, it seems clear to everyone _ states. interesting, it seems clear to everyone here _ states. interesting, it seems clear to everyone here that _ states. interesting, it seems clear to everyone here that the - states. interesting, it seems clear- to everyone here that the government will have to provide far more support than it has put on the table so far. the national energy action projects one in three houses will be in fuel poverty by the end of the year. tonight, rishi sunak and liz truss were on sky news, so what is

the solution?— the solution? what the bank of encland the solution? what the bank of england have — the solution? what the bank of england have said _ the solution? what the bank of england have said today - the solution? what the bank of england have said today is - the solution? what the bank of england have said today is of l the solution? what the bank of - england have said today is of course extremely worrying, but it is not inevitable. we can change the outcome and we can make it more likely that the economy grows. what's important is first of all that we need to help people struggling with the cost of living. i would immediately reverse the national insurance increase. i would also have a temporary moratorium on the green energy levy to save money on fuel bills. i would also keep corporation tax low, to make sure we are attracting investment. is corporation tax low, to make sure we are attracting investment.— are attracting investment. is that the answer? _ are attracting investment. is that the answer? national— are attracting investment. is that the answer? national insurance | are attracting investment. is that| the answer? national insurance is not going to make a great difference to families, particularly the hardest hit. corporation tax has not been introduced yet so it won't affect inflation, and it doesn't help households. what have you heard from these two candidates about how they are going to support people when they are paying energy bills of

£300 per month? i when they are paying energy bills of £300 per month?— when they are paying energy bills of £300 per month? i think both of them have tried to — £300 per month? i think both of them have tried to set _ £300 per month? i think both of them have tried to set out _ £300 per month? i think both of them have tried to set out plans _ £300 per month? i think both of them have tried to set out plans but - £300 per month? i think both of them have tried to set out plans but the - have tried to set out plans but the reality is they are not going to go far enough to help people who are the hardest hit by the cost of living crisis. tax cuts will help people who pay tax, most likely those in work or with wealth generating tax. less likely to help people on fixed incomes and welfare. national insurance, not going ahead with that, can supportjobs and i recognise that liz truss is talking about measures to support growth, but in the short—term... it’s but in the short-term. .. it's universal— but in the short-term. .. it's universal credit, _ but in the short—term... it's universal credit, isn't it? you have to target money at the hardest hit. indeed, and when you have tight fiscal finances, indeed, and when you have tight fiscalfinances, it's all indeed, and when you have tight fiscal finances, it's all the indeed, and when you have tight fiscalfinances, it's all the more important to make sure every single penny achieves its objective of supporting people through this cost of living crisis over the coming months. in the medium and longer term you need to make sure you have

insulation, smart metres, the broader issue notjust about energy security at a national level but at household level. so they are more in control. and in the longer—term, it comes back to government strategy around levelling up, it's always the same people stuck at the bottom of the economic model in the uk, because where you start tends to be where you stay financially in this country. it's breaking that fundamentally, it's notjust how we will economic growth, because of the potential, it's also how we can put people more in charge of helping to get through the cost of living crisis we are facing today and in the future no doubt.— the future no doubt. they are high-stakes _ the future no doubt. they are high-stakes issues, - the future no doubt. they are high-stakes issues, but - the future no doubt. they are i high-stakes issues, but because the future no doubt. they are - high-stakes issues, but because both high—stakes issues, but because both countries are heading to elections, yours in november. the democrats think they have this answer, the inflation reduction act making its way through congress, $a33 billion in new spending. two things about this, they have lumped a lot into

one bill, climate and energy provision there as well. and as yet they don't have the senator from arizona on board, coast and cinema. they absolutely don't, i just came they absolutely don't, ijust came from _ they absolutely don't, ijust came from capitol hill, everyone still trying _ from capitol hill, everyone still trying to— from capitol hill, everyone still trying to figure out if she is going to sopport — trying to figure out if she is going to support this. they are now trying to support this. they are now trying to frame _ to support this. they are now trying to frame this legislation, the reduction act... republicans dispute that, _ reduction act... republicans dispute that, they— reduction act... republicans dispute that, they say there is little that is going — that, they say there is little that is going to be done by this legislation to reduce inflation. the democrats are claiming it that way even _ democrats are claiming it that way even though they know the most important part of the legislation is the climate component, the biggest spending _ the climate component, the biggest spending ever in this country on climate — spending ever in this country on climate provisions, nearly $400 billion _ climate provisions, nearly $400 billion. and what's not included in this biti— billion. and what's not included in this bill is— billion. and what's not included in this bill is a — billion. and what's not included in this bill is a lot of stuff for care econonry~ _ this bill is a lot of stuff for care economy. you asked justine what the government would do to help those

most in _ government would do to help those most in need as the economy gets more _ most in need as the economy gets more difficult, well, that is not what _ more difficult, well, that is not what the — more difficult, well, that is not what the us congress is talking about— what the us congress is talking about at— what the us congress is talking about at all. all the care economy provisions— about at all. all the care economy provisions have been dropped from this legislation because they couldn't— this legislation because they couldn't get the support in order for it— couldn't get the support in order for it to — couldn't get the support in order for it to pass. there will be some health— for it to pass. there will be some health care, _ for it to pass. there will be some health care, prescription drugs sopport— health care, prescription drugs support for seniors, but ultimately that is— support for seniors, but ultimately that is it — support for seniors, but ultimately that is it. ., support for seniors, but ultimately thatisit. ., , ~ support for seniors, but ultimately thatisit. ., ., . that is it. today off gm announced the rice that is it. today off gm announced the price cap _ that is it. today off gm announced the price cap will _ that is it. today off gm announced the price cap will be _ that is it. today off gm announced the price cap will be reviewed - that is it. today off gm announced the price cap will be reviewed and| the price cap will be reviewed and updated quarterly rather than every six months, meaning that prices will rise more quickly for consumers to reflect higher wholesale prices as well as falling more quickly when they dip. but what if people can't pay or won't pay? there is now a grassroots campaign calling for collective action. don't pay uk are calling on a million households to boycott their bills, so far 70,000 have signed up and one of them. iamjoined byjake, a young professional in london whojoined

the don't pay campaign recently tell us why things have got so difficult? i tell us why things have got so difficult? ., ~' tell us why things have got so difficult? ., ~ ., ., ,, difficult? i would like to make it very clear— difficult? i would like to make it very clear that _ difficult? i would like to make it very clear that i _ difficult? i would like to make it very clear that i would - difficult? i would like to make it very clear that i would like - difficult? i would like to make it very clear that i would like not l difficult? i would like to make it| very clear that i would like not to be here. i am here because i work hard for my money, and every single month, the amount i get to take home and spends on my life is reducing. it's getting to the point where we have to ask ourselves, where is this money going, who is benefiting from this, and is it serving a purpose? and don't pay are saying it's not serving a purpose other than profit. the increase in bills we are seeing is manufactured. it does not need to be this way, despite the fact wholesale prices are going up, and we face international pressures, the reality of the situation is large energy companies are taking

advantage of the situation in ukraine to make a profit. to the point where they are draining the wallets of 27 million households, and to the point where one in three will be in fuel poverty... share and to the point where one in three will be in fuel poverty. . ._ will be in fuel poverty... are you makin: will be in fuel poverty... are you making a — will be in fuel poverty... are you making a moral _ will be in fuel poverty... are you making a moral stand _ will be in fuel poverty... are you making a moral stand or - will be in fuel poverty... are you making a moral stand or are - will be in fuel poverty... are you making a moral stand or are you j will be in fuel poverty... are you i making a moral stand or are you in a position, bluntly, where you won't be able to afford the payments? i be able to afford the payments? 1 simply won't be able to afford it, it's both moral and a reality of the situation that the prices are rising so fast, it is narrowing to the point that individuals who are not part of the top 10% won't be able to pay, and that is reflected across the country, and that's why we are asking people to pledge to join the movement. you asking people to pledge to 'oin the movement. ., ., ., , ., , movement. you are a smart guy, you are a professional, _ movement. you are a smart guy, you are a professional, i _ movement. you are a smart guy, you are a professional, i don't _ movement. you are a smart guy, you are a professional, i don't need - movement. you are a smart guy, you are a professional, i don't need to - are a professional, i don't need to explain what a lot of people have already said which is, if you don't pay, of course it will have an

impact on your credit rating... sure. , , , sure. debt collectors will be knockin: sure. debt collectors will be knocking on _ sure. debt collectors will be knocking on your _ sure. debt collectors will be knocking on your door, - sure. debt collectors will be knocking on your door, it i sure. debt collectors will be i knocking on your door, it might sure. debt collectors will be - knocking on your door, it might cost you more in the long run... what about people who say to you, if you don't pay, their bills will be higher? i don't pay, their bills will be hiher? ., ,, .., don't pay, their bills will be hither? ., ,, . ., ., , ., higher? i appreciate that question because a lot of _ higher? i appreciate that question because a lot of people _ higher? i appreciate that question because a lot of people ask i higher? i appreciate that question because a lot of people ask and i higher? i appreciate that question | because a lot of people ask and it's a valid question. firstly, i would like to point out that we are asking for pledges, and that's important because it shows energy companies that we are not satisfied, that we are not going to accept their extortionate price gouging. that's really important. if you are at home watching and you are nervous about this, you can still pledge and it is still an effective action. secondly, you can cancel your direct debit and still pay within 28 days without any legal proceedings. energy companies rely on direct debits as a way to pay their reliably every month, and

disrupting that is a way to get their attention. disrupting that is a way to get theirattention. it's disrupting that is a way to get their attention. it's the only way we can get their attention, otherwise this will continue get worse. ~ . otherwise this will continue get worse. . ., ., otherwise this will continue get worse. ., ., ., worse. what would you have the government _ worse. what would you have the government do? _ worse. what would you have the government do? they _ worse. what would you have the government do? they must i worse. what would you have the j government do? they must help worse. what would you have the i government do? they must help pay the bills in government do? they must help pay the mus in the _ government do? they must help pay the bills in the short-term, - government do? they must help pay the bills in the short-term, so i government do? they must help pay the bills in the short-term, so they i the bills in the short—term, so they need... and i'm not talking about this measly £37 billion, which is just going to go back to the energy companies. i'm talking about furloughs, and assistance programme for the hardest—hit, to reduce prices, from the energy companies. people have tightened their belts post covid, energy companies need to do the same because that is where the money is going. the increase in prices for all households in the uk amounts to £a0 billion, which is enough to build the channel tunnel twice over. �* . enough to build the channel tunnel twice over. . ., ., enough to build the channel tunnel twice over. �* . ., , ., enough to build the channel tunnel twice over. . ., ., , ., ., twice over. again, what you are advocating _ twice over. again, what you are advocating is — twice over. again, what you are advocating is it _ twice over. again, what you are

advocating is it is _ twice over. again, what you are advocating is it is targeted i twice over. again, what you are advocating is it is targeted at i twice over. again, what you are. advocating is it is targeted at the very lowest paid, whether by solo or universal credit? hat very lowest paid, whether by solo or universal credit?— universal credit? not 'ust the lowest paid. * universal credit? not 'ust the lowest paid, but i universal credit? not just the lowest paid, but everyone i universal credit? not just the i lowest paid, but everyone needs help. the government could introduce social energy, essentially a system... because smart metres nowadays, fortunately, can tell what appliance you are using. so we can use that technology to ensure people can heat their homes and cook food, the absolute basics, for a lower price than to say heating one's pool price than to say heating one's pool, which i think we can all argue is not the same. just quickly on the legality and the risk, i would like to point out that there is an inactivity bias going on here. there is a risk of withdrawing your funds, that's absolutely true, but there is also a risk of taking no action.

that risk is pointing out to these energy companies that we are all going to stay with our heads down, pay through our noses and they will continue to increase prices. they have been doing this for the past year, they have realised it works as a business model so they will continue to increase prices. we are saying that we stop paying now rather than in two years' time when hundreds of billions of pounds has left the uk public purse, which will increase inflation, as fewer people have disposable income, and it will accelerate the spiral we are in. very brave of you to come on tonight, we appreciate you telling us your story. justine greening, on this, a number of energy companies have gone out of business, and there is a danger that this starts to grow. some people might encourage it to grow, but it could turn into a poll tax moment where we have millions of people refusing to pay their bills. i

millions of people refusing to pay their bills. ~' millions of people refusing to pay their bills. ~ .., ,., their bills. i think the campaign started a month _ their bills. i think the campaign started a month ago and i their bills. i think the campaign started a month ago and had i their bills. i think the campaign i started a month ago and had about a000 people and it's already up to 70,000, which underlines politically where we are at now is not sustainable. that is not a purely political dilemma facing all the parties, but particularly of course liz truss and rishi sunak. it's to do with the fact that, actually, people slip into debt, and we could end up with a short—term cost of living crisis having a long—term financial scar on the very families we are trying to improve the prospects for, when we talk about improving opportunities and extending more to communities that haven't had enough in the past. so taking action now is crucial to allowing us to succeed in driving more opportunities more fairly in the future. irate more opportunities more fairly in the future-— more opportunities more fairly in the future. ~ , ., ., ., ,, the future. we must move on, thank ou for the future. we must move on, thank you for that- — china has never before sent missiles across the territory it claims as its own. but today two missiles "flew

directly over the main island of taiwan" and landed in the sea in japan's exclusive economic zone. in total, the chinese army launched 11 ballistic missiles into the waters around taiwan, not such much a live fire exercise as a full dress rehearsalfor an invasion. the map shows you where the drills are happening in seven different areas. three of them cross taiwan's maritime border. the taiwanese defence force said it would "uphold the principle of preparing for war, without seeking war". the us secretary of state antony blinken is in cambodia meeting the asean foreign ministers. i hope very much that beijing will not manufacture a crisis or seek a pretext— not manufacture a crisis or seek a pretext to — not manufacture a crisis or seek a pretext to increase its aggressive military— pretext to increase its aggressive military activity. we and countries around _ military activity. we and countries around the — military activity. we and countries around the world believes that escalation serves no one and could have _ escalation serves no one and could have unintended consequences that serve _ have unintended consequences that serve no _ have unintended consequences that serve no interests including the members — serve no interests including the members here and china.

we have had plenty of reaction in recent days from washington. what about the europeans? china is germany's biggest trading partner. finbarr bermingham is the europe correspondent for the south china morning post. eu officials have been reluctant to wade in, but what is being said in private? wade in, but what is being said in rivate? ~ , , .,, wade in, but what is being said in rivate? ~ , , private? absolutely, there has been a reluctance — private? absolutely, there has been a reluctance to _ private? absolutely, there has been a reluctance to get _ private? absolutely, there has been a reluctance to get involved, - private? absolutely, there has been a reluctance to get involved, the i private? absolutely, there has been a reluctance to get involved, the eu| a reluctance to get involved, the eu has been very happy to hitch its wagon to the g7, which put out a statement on wednesday. in private, a little bit of reluctance, officials are saying, why would we get involved, this is not ourfight, it's all about the united states and china. it is not directly affecting the european union... there are some european union officials behind the scenes voicing concerns about potential supply chain spill—overs, we see the chinese banning the export of sand to tie one, will that affect the microchip supply chain?

we shall see. —— to thailand. we had the european union counterpart of anthony blinken who didn't mention ty anthony blinken who didn't mention ty wann whenever he was addressing the algae and foreign ministers forum. they are very careful to hitch their wagon to the g7, they don't want to rock the boat, there is a balancing act going on and they want to access the microchipped from taiwan. it is a close ally of the united states, so the eu find itself in a bit of a pickle, it doesn't want to get involved and might find it trickier as time goes on, and as we see more visits from european politicians to tie one, just as nancy pelosi visited this week from the united states.— the united states. china is so important _ the united states. china is so important to _ the united states. china is so important to germany - the united states. china is so important to germany for i important to germany for manufacturing. a blockade would have a massive effect on top of the

energy crisis germany is already facing. presumably they are looking in private at the contingency planning?— in private at the contingency ”lannin ? ., ., , planning? yeah, we have seen some comments on _ planning? yeah, we have seen some comments on the taiwanese - planning? yeah, we have seen some i comments on the taiwanese ambassador in brussels today, saying there are contingency plans to get things out. this seems to be part of the european concern. ever since the start of the covid crisis, there has been some level of determinations in bottles and other european capitals to reduce reliance on this region, to reduce reliance on this region, to not have so many eggs in the china basket. and semiconductors, they are highly exposed to thailand. this is a highly volatile part of the world. what has happened this week is not much of a surprise. —— highly exposed to taiwan. the missiles going over, yes, that has taken us back but it is not a new issue, this conversation has been going on for some while now about

leading to diversified supply chains. the eu and the us meet regularly to discuss this, creating networks of semiconductors in the west, they haven't got far with it. it's complex. but this incident will certainly, i guess, amplify the need to continue with that dialogue. thank you very much. justine greening, listen to the chinese ambassador who has been speaking to french television today. about how they intend to re—educate people in taiwan. translation: 20 years ago, ten years ago, the majority . of the population of taiwan were in favour of reunification. so why now are they against it? it's because of democratic progressive party propaganda.

after reunification there will be re—education. i am sure then that the taiwan population will again become favourable towards reunification, will become patriots again. not under duress, with re—education. some of that rhetoric sounds familiar, it sounds like what the kremlin are doing in ukraine. it is kremlin are doing in ukraine. it is uuite kremlin are doing in ukraine. it is quite shocking — kremlin are doing in ukraine. it 3 quite shocking to hear the ambassador talk, to be honest, about the problem is, as they say it, with democracy. there are parallels, no doubt about that. taiwan being put under pressure by its neighbouring power, that thinks it has territorial rights, just like we are seeing with ukraine and russia, but there is also a warning to the democratic world, to the west, around the fact there is a broader

economic issue at stake. in ukraine, we have seen russia playing energy politics with gas supplies. it's worth bearing in mind that, for some time, china has made claims to the south china sea straits. about a third of global maritime trade goes through those straits. you can easily see how we could also see some economic war is waged by china in relation to limiting passage through that the. really challenging times, and it will require a wider world to think about how it confronts the risks. {cf} world to think about how it confronts the risks. 40 seconds left, confronts the risks. 40 seconds left. does _ confronts the risks. 40 seconds left, does congress _ confronts the risks. 40 seconds left, does congress recognise l confronts the risks. 40 seconds l left, does congress recognise the economic threat?— left, does congress recognise the economic threat? they do, and that is why they — economic threat? they do, and that is why they have — economic threat? they do, and that is why they have recently _ economic threat? they do, and that is why they have recently passed i is why they have recently passed legislation to ensure the united states— legislation to ensure the united states is— legislation to ensure the united states is not as reliant on china. this— states is not as reliant on china. this is really important to the united — this is really important to the united states congress right now. they say— united states congress right now. they say this is probably part of the reason, just part of the reason, why china _

the reason, just part of the reason, why china is — the reason, just part of the reason, why china is escalating tensions now _ why china is escalating tensions now. ~ , why china is escalating tensions now. . , ,., . ~ why china is escalating tensions now. ~ , . " ~ now. we will be right back. we will talk about some _ now. we will be right back. we will talk about some very _ talk about some very interesting court cases, one in moscow, one in texas, stay with us. hello there. hosepipe bans are starting to come into force over the next few days. for hampshire and the isle of wight, we've got a ban coming in place for friday. then, across south east england next week and the week after that, parts of southern wales hit by one as well. it's all because we've not seen so much in the way of rain over the course of this year. so far, only two thirds of the amount of rain we'd normally see has fallen across parts of england. not quite as dry as 1976, but not too far behind, and there is no rain in the forecast across those very driest areas — not just for the next five days, but next week looks completely dry as well. now, on thursday, we had some fine spells of sunshine across england and wales, but for scotland and northern ireland, a few passing showers — one of these captured there in the highlands — and there'll be more showers to come overnight across scotland,

northern ireland and a few for the northwest of england and wales. one or two heavy one mixed in as well, but further southwards, southern wales, the midlands, east anglia, southern england, it's dry. a comfortable night's sleep for all of you, temperatures 8—1a degrees. we get off to a fresh start to the day on friday. lots of sunshine across the whole of the country, but again, there will be a few passing showers for scotland, northern ireland, the northwest of england and wales, but for the south, it's dry again with no showers in the forecast. temperatures very similar to those of thursday. high teens across northern areas, the warmest spots about 24—25 across eastern areas of england. and it means, again, we've got more fine weather for the commonwealth games. the athletics, perfect conditions — 20 degrees and light winds, lots of sunshine. as we head into the weekend, there will be some thicker cloud just working into the northwest of scotland, bringing a little bit of rain here, but further southwards, again, it's the same old story of dry conditions, lots of sunshine and just starting to creep up a little bit.

18 for belfast, 23 for cardiff and 26 in london. now, looking at the weather patterns through the second half of the weekend and into next week, we get this area of high pressure becoming much more dominant. that means the winds will be lighter and with lots of sunshine around, we'll see those temperatures start to build day by day. so, a very warm or even hot spell of weather with temperatures across the warmest spots of england peaking back into the 30s, but getting warmer as well for scotland and northern ireland with a lot of dry weather and sunshine for next week. that's your forecast.

hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. a russia court has sentenced the us basketballer star britney griner to 9 years in prison for trying to bring cannabis oil into the country i made an honest mistake and i hope that in your ruling that it doesn't end my life here. but if all goes to plan, she might home soon — with a swap deal for a notorious russian arms dealer already on the cards. the us conspiracy theorist alexjones is about to discover how much he'll pay in damages, for repeatedly lying about the sandy hook massacre. tonight with the context, former conservative cabinet secretary justine greening and longtime capitol hill correspondent and now washington post live anchor leigh ann caldwell.

the american basketball star brittney griner is now the subject of an extraordinary tug of war between russia and the united states. today a russian court sentenced her to 9 years in prison for drug smuggling. griner, an olympic gold medallist, admitted, she had vape cartridges containing cannabis oil in her possession, when she was detained in february. she told the court she had not intended to break the law but she got the maximum sentence and was also ordered to pay one million roubles, just over fifteen thousand dollars. in a statement released shortly after the verdict, the us presidentjoe bident said griner�*s sentence was �*unaccapetable' and that his administration would pursue every possible avenue to bring griner home. and that is the key part of the story. because the state department has already offered the kremlin a prisoner swap; in exchange for griner and another

american paul whelan they are prepared to hand over the highest—profile russian in us custody. the notorious arms smuggler viktor bout. griner�*s lawyers say they will appeal. here's their reaction outside the court. we feel disappointment. when we saw britney i think it was tuesday and we told her see you on thursday and she said see you on doomsday. it looks like she was right. will you appeal to biden again? it's up to britney, it's up to her family, it's up to her agents. we are only responsible for legal aspects here in russia. and what are your next steps? we will file in appeal. a short time ago, i talked to jamison firestone. he's a us lawyer who's worked in moscow and he says the russian authorities needed a long sentence, to try to engineer a prisoner swap. i don't think the court made this decision. i think there is zero chance that the judge at any leeway

here. i think the judge was instructed to perform as a state wanted her to. and so whether it was going to be nine years or 8.5, it was going to be a sufficiently long period of time so the us would have to bargain for her release. what did you make of the evidence presented? i mean, she accidentally did apparently enter russia with apparently a very small amount of canvas oil amount of cannabis oil in a cartridge, which is a violation of the law. but it's draconian to give somebody nine and half years for that. but let's be realistic, there are lots of countries that would do that. china, would do that, singapore would do that, saudi arabia would do that and russia would do that. and all that considered, this sentence you suggested because putin needs a pawn for his swap negotiation with the united states. how much do you think that would be uppermost in the mind

of thejudge? well, again, thejudge has been told to do. so, thejudge has simply been told, you are going to give for x amount of time. i don't think... it didn't matter what she said in court, really. and the judge what really wasn't making the decision here. this is going through a show trial to get to the result the state wants. a prisoner swap for victor bout, he's he is the most prolific arms dealer that russia, he's a sanction buster, russia says he it won't trade greiner and the other american for him. how important do you think he is to the kremlin? he's really good at what he does, which is trafficking weapons. which is very useful to the kremlin which funds all sorts of operations all the world, all of africa today. he's an extremely person to them. i don't believe that the kremlin isn't going to trade for him but i think they want more.

they've indicated through back channels that they want a state assassin who went to germany and killed somebody in germany. obviously, the united states can't give up that person because it's got no jurisdiction over that person and germany should not give up that person. it could be horse trading. we're going to go back and forth until we make a deal. as you say, a germans i wouldn't think would agree to release a convicted hit man. knowing it might encourage future detentions inside russia. right, i agree. if we caught the people who poisoned the skripals, i don't think this country would be willing to release the person nor should we. putin always asked for as much as he can get, right? and then he takes what he can get. no real bread cited for

griner. what do people think about handing over viktor bout? maw; griner. what do people think about handing over viktor bout? many think this needs to — handing over viktor bout? many think this needs to be _ handing over viktor bout? many think this needs to be dealt _ handing over viktor bout? many think this needs to be dealt with _ this needs to be dealt with immediately. we also have to look at this in the context of what is happening. this is notjust the tit—for—tat for prisoner swap, this is happening is the united states has imposed very tough sanctions against russia because of the war in ukraine. this isjust another element making the relationship in the communication and the diplomacy very difficult and very fraud. and difficult in these negotiations. fir difficult in these negotiations. 0r replaying the diplomatic game. andrew bailey seeing this is not going to ease the economic problems in the 2023 and his sister and brother rushmore in ukraine, barbie

not doubling down and why do we not see, here's another load of sanctions, is another load of sanctions, is another load of sanctions until you hand over these prisoners and pull out of ukraine? it is a matter for the prisoners and pull out of ukraine? it is a matterfor the us but prisoners and pull out of ukraine? it is a matter for the us but we have _ it is a matter for the us but we have to continue to ratchet up on russia _ have to continue to ratchet up on russia. there really is no other way if we _ russia. there really is no other way if we are _ russia. there really is no other way if we are going to limit our military— if we are going to limit our military action to supporting ukraine _ military action to supporting ukraine and find other routes, including — ukraine and find other routes, including economic and diplomatic to take action _ including economic and diplomatic to take action and for the uk, we have been _ take action and for the uk, we have been able _ take action and for the uk, we have been able to get back and assume the situation _ been able to get back and assume the situation where there was quiz training — situation where there was quiz training that had to happen in order to get— training that had to happen in order to get people out of the country but it is really worrying that you see people — it is really worrying that you see people caught up in the much broader geopolitical situations and in the case of— geopolitical situations and in the case of pretty griner, disproportionate sentences that are utterly— disproportionate sentences that are utterly politically motivated.

from moscow to austin texas, where far right conspiracy theorist alex jones is on trial for defamation. the infowars host has been telling his listeners for years that the 2012 sandy hook massacre was all a big hoax. under oath he finally admitted he was lying and the jury is now deliberating how much he much pay in damages to the grieving parents, who have suffered appalling abuse from his followers. but before they retired to consider the case, an attorney for the sandy hook parents revealed this. did you know that 12 days ago, 12 days ago your attorneys messed up and sent you an entire digital copy of your entire cell phone with every text message you sent for the past two years and when informed, did not take any steps to identify this as privileged or protected in any way and as of two days ago, it fell free and clear into my possession and that is how i know you lied to me when you said you didn't have a text

message about sandy hook? did you know that? i told you the truth, this is your perry mason moment. indeed it was the perry mason moment. but that is not all. there is now a surreal intersection between that trial and the investigation into the capitol hill riot. today, the january 6 committee confirmed it has subpoenad the digital records from his phone. jones boasted that when interviewed by the committee over his role in the events of that day, he pleaded the 5th around 100 times. let's bring in will sommer — who has been covering the trial for the daily beast. i can't stop watching the video and looking get alex jones lawyer with his hands to his mouth wondering what was going through his head. it is amazing that he had not prepared him for it. it’s is amazing that he had not prepared him for it. d ., , him for it. it's remarkable, throughout _ him for it. it's remarkable, throughout this _ him for it. it's remarkable, throughout this trial, i him for it. it's remarkable, throughout this trial, alex| him for it. it's remarkable, i throughout this trial, alex jones legal team hasjust throughout this trial, alex jones legal team has just been throughout this trial, alex jones legal team hasjust been making mistake after mistake and again, it seems frankly but they did not realise they had given the

plaintiffs lawyers the cell phone data because it was only today that they try to, as the jury is out considering the case, thejones lawyers tried to mark the cell phone is privileged and prevent the attorneys from using it. there is much more to come after this trial more severe cases to come but also should mention, the january six community is interested. the plaintiffs lawyers as of the law enforcement agencies are interested. so, this mistake and really echoing a big way for alexjones. what so, this mistake and really echoing a big way for alex jones.— a big way for alex jones. what is his le . al a big way for alex jones. what is his legaljeopardy _ a big way for alex jones. what is his legaljeopardy because i his legaljeopardy because obviously, with the lawyer was driving at was he had sent texts and e—mails about sandy hook to friends and colleagues, but on the stand, he told the court that he never sent any texts or e—mails. is he guilty of perjury? he any texts or e-mails. is he guilty of perjury?— any texts or e-mails. is he guilty of perjury? of per'ury? he certainly looks like it to of perjury? he certainly looks like it to me but the _ of perjury? he certainly looks like it to me but the question - of perjury? he certainly looks like it to me but the question is i of perjury? he certainly looks like i it to me but the question is whether or not it was going to prosecute them. throughout this case, alex jones and his legal team heavily flouted the rules of the courtroom

procedure to the that it does seem to reach a criminal level. he has to be constantly reminded to tell the truth in trial but there's a reason, it's a very unusual trial because avery ruled that he has lost because he essentially broke the legal rules so often. so now, thejury is only deciding how much she has to pay. notably in the clip though, the lewises, do you know what perjury is, are you aware of that? because he said he had not sent any text messages or e—mails about this. this is the guy who runs an extremely online media empire in the reason that he doesn't send text messages or e—mails about what is covered in this programmejust for the this programme just for the stretched this programmejust for the stretched belief in now, we have proof of that. stretched belief in now, we have proof of that-— stretched belief in now, we have proof of that. would about israel the january _ proof of that. would about israel the january six — proof of that. would about israel the january six riots _ proof of that. would about israel the january six riots and - proof of that. would about israel the january six riots and on i proof of that. would about israel the january six riots and on the l the january six riots and on the day, how influential he was. perhaps there are number of people in his circle, the oath keepers, the proud

boys, all of these groups is interacting with. perhaps there for feeling a bit uncomfortable at the moment. , , , ., , ., moment. the web between people have been charged — moment. the web between people have been charged with _ moment. the web between people have been charged with sedition _ moment. the web between people have been charged with sedition and - been charged with sedition and rioting in people is seen as the ringleaders of the riot, they're very close to alex jones. that of the oath keepers as a friend of his well fingers on the shelf. the head of the proud boys, same thing. it is interesting that is the moment was happening, alexjones, saying, be peaceful, whatever. he spent days robbing people up in advance of the riot and now, potentially these messages could tell us a lot about the organisation of the riot in the days leading up to it stop returning to the damages, he's on the old furniture $50 million. but in those records the produced, there were receipts coming into it.— receipts coming into it. receipts for the lies _ receipts coming into it. receipts for the lies he _ receipts coming into it. receipts for the lies he was _ receipts coming into it. receipts for the lies he was telling. i for the lies he was telling. extraordinary profit. it’s

for the lies he was telling. extraordinary profit.- for the lies he was telling. extraordinary profit. it's a really rofitable extraordinary profit. it's a really profitable business. _ extraordinary profit. it's a really profitable business. in - extraordinary profit. it's a really profitable business. in effect, i extraordinary profit. it's a really i profitable business. in effect, he's been taking steps to hide the money in this trial and others by essentially moving money to other businesses controlled by his family, and tempting to declare bankruptcy through shell corporations. but this is a lot of money, alexjones is trying to portray himself as this brave man speaking truth in the wilderness, why can't we just leave this man alone even if his ideas are kinda crazy. but the reality is, does the plaintiff lawyers have shown, he's making a of money to make money. he is monetising these tragic murders in these harassing families. he is making as much as per day on some of these and four wars. now that he is claiming poverty and that it will sink his business, itjust doesn't stand up to the facts. business, it 'ust doesn't stand up to the facts.— to the facts. that is an extraordinary - to the facts. that is an extraordinary amount l to the facts. that is an l extraordinary amount of to the facts. that is an - extraordinary amount of money to the facts. that is an _ extraordinary amount of money per day. thank you for that. for me, this is the shining example of the

post truth moment that we are living in. in which people can get rich from amplifying lies in the only time they seem to tell the truth is when they're put on the stand. that is exactly right. _ when they're put on the stand. that is exactly right, when i watched and i've is exactly right, when i watched and i've been— is exactly right, when i watched and i've been paying _ is exactly right, when i watched and i've been paying attention— is exactly right, when i watched and i've been paying attention to - is exactly right, when i watched and i've been paying attention to this i i've been paying attention to this trial, _ i've been paying attention to this trial, that's — i've been paying attention to this trial, that's what _ i've been paying attention to this trial, that's what keeps - i've been paying attention to this trial, that's what keeps coming i i've been paying attention to thisi trial, that's what keeps coming to me. trial, that's what keeps coming to me the — trial, that's what keeps coming to me the fact— trial, that's what keeps coming to me. the fact that _ trial, that's what keeps coming to me. the fact that we're _ trial, that's what keeps coming to me. the fact that we're living i trial, that's what keeps coming to me. the fact that we're living in. me. the fact that we're living in this age — me. the fact that we're living in this age of— me. the fact that we're living in this age of disinformation - me. the fact that we're living in this age of disinformation suchl me. the fact that we're living in. this age of disinformation such as misinformation— this age of disinformation such as misinformation the _ this age of disinformation such as misinformation the sake - this age of disinformation such as misinformation the sake of- misinformation the sake of misinformation— misinformation the sake of misinformation —— - misinformation the sake of- misinformation —— disinformation. this an _ misinformation —— disinformation. this an agenda _ misinformation —— disinformation. this an agenda behind _ misinformation —— disinformation. this an agenda behind it _ misinformation —— disinformation. this an agenda behind it that - misinformation —— disinformation. this an agenda behind it that is i this an agenda behind it that is monetary— this an agenda behind it that is monetary and _ this an agenda behind it that is monetary and it's _ this an agenda behind it that is monetary and it's happening i this an agenda behind it that is i monetary and it's happening among media _ monetary and it's happening among media stars— monetary and it's happening among media stars and _ monetary and it's happening among media stars and also _ monetary and it's happening among media stars and also among - media stars and also among politicians _ media stars and also among politicians as _ media stars and also among politicians as well. - media stars and also among politicians as well. refusingj media stars and also among i politicians as well. refusing to admit — politicians as well. refusing to admit that— politicians as well. refusing to admit that the _ politicians as well. refusing to admit that the 2020 _ politicians as well. refusing to admit that the 2020 election i politicians as well. refusing to i admit that the 2020 election was legitimate — admit that the 2020 election was legitimate. joe biden— admit that the 2020 election was| legitimate. joe biden legitimately won the _ legitimate. joe biden legitimately won the election _ legitimate. joe biden legitimately won the election and _ legitimate. joe biden legitimately won the election and it's - legitimate. joe biden legitimately won the election and it's because| won the election and it's because of their political— won the election and it's because of their political campaign _ won the election and it's because of their political campaign donations i their political campaign donations and it— their political campaign donations and it helps— their political campaign donations and it helps them _ their political campaign donations and it helps them to _ their political campaign donations and it helps them to get - their political campaign donations| and it helps them to get reelected nothing to— and it helps them to get reelected nothing to make _ and it helps them to get reelected nothing to make money. - and it helps them to get reelected nothing to make money. in - and it helps them to get reelected nothing to make money.— nothing to make money. in the committee, you _ nothing to make money. in the committee, you know- nothing to make money. in the i committee, you know everything nothing to make money. in the - committee, you know everything about everything going on in the january six committee. are you expecting them to go through this with a fine

tooth comb? because presumably, this is a treasure trove of information that they were just weren't expecting a special and trying to get the information from homeland security. get the information from homeland securi . �* �* get the information from homeland securi .�* . , security. and alex jones was in touch with _ security. and alex jones was in touch with a — security. and alex jones was in touch with a lot _ security. and alex jones was in touch with a lot of _ security. and alex jones was in touch with a lot of these i security. and alex jones was in | touch with a lot of these people were _ touch with a lot of these people were on— touch with a lot of these people were on the _ touch with a lot of these people were on the rally _ touch with a lot of these people were on the rally and _ touch with a lot of these people were on the rally and in - touch with a lot of these people were on the rally and in touch i touch with a lot of these people i were on the rally and in touch with presumably, — were on the rally and in touch with presumably. with— were on the rally and in touch with presumably, with the _ were on the rally and in touch with presumably, with the january six i presumably, with the january six committee — presumably, with the january six committee is _ presumably, with the january six committee is thinking, _ presumably, with the january six committee is thinking, with- presumably, with the january six committee is thinking, with the. committee is thinking, with the trump — committee is thinking, with the trump administration, - committee is thinking, with the trump administration, people i committee is thinking, with the i trump administration, people close to donald _ trump administration, people close to donald trump _ trump administration, people close to donald trump. the _ trump administration, people close to donald trump. the generally- trump administration, people closel to donald trump. the generally sick select— to donald trump. the generally sick select committee _ to donald trump. the generally sick select committee has _ to donald trump. the generally sick select committee has been- to donald trump. the generally sick select committee has been trying i to donald trump. the generally sickj select committee has been trying to wrap up _ select committee has been trying to wrap up their— select committee has been trying to wrap up their investigation - select committee has been trying to wrap up their investigation but - wrap up their investigation but they keep getting — wrap up their investigation but they keep getting more _ wrap up their investigation but they keep getting more and _ wrap up their investigation but they keep getting more and more - keep getting more and more information— keep getting more and more information as _ keep getting more and more information as the _ keep getting more and more information as the walls i keep getting more and more information as the walls are i keep getting more and more - information as the walls are closing information as the walls are closing in on _ information as the walls are closing in on this— information as the walls are closing in on this movement _ information as the walls are closing in on this movement and _ information as the walls are closing in on this movement and the - information as the walls are closing i in on this movement and the general is six _ in on this movement and the general is six select — in on this movement and the general is six select committee _ in on this movement and the general is six select committee is _ is six select committee is interested _ is six select committee is interested but— is six select committee is interested but i— is six select committee is interested but i would i is six select committee is i interested but i would expect is six select committee is - interested but i would expect and i do not _ interested but i would expect and i do not have — interested but i would expect and i do not have confirmation _ interested but i would expect and i do not have confirmation on - interested but i would expect and i do not have confirmation on this. interested but i would expect and ii do not have confirmation on this yet but the _ do not have confirmation on this yet but the department _ do not have confirmation on this yet but the department of— do not have confirmation on this yet but the department ofjustice - do not have confirmation on this yet but the department ofjustice is - but the department ofjustice is also going — but the department ofjustice is also going to _ but the department ofjustice is also going to be _ but the department ofjustice is also going to be interested - but the department ofjustice is also going to be interested in. but the department ofjustice is l also going to be interested in this informalion— also going to be interested in this information and _ also going to be interested in this information and the _ also going to be interested in this information and the web - also going to be interested in this information and the web of - information and the web of connection— information and the web of connection between- information and the web of connection between these i information and the web of - connection between these people keeps _ connection between these people keeps growing _ connection between these people keeps growing deeper— connection between these people keeps growing deeper and - connection between these people| keeps growing deeper and deeper connection between these people - keeps growing deeper and deeper and this is— keeps growing deeper and deeper and this is exactly— keeps growing deeper and deeper and this is exactly what _ keeps growing deeper and deeper and

this is exactly what information - keeps growing deeper and deeper and this is exactly what information the i this is exactly what information the committee — this is exactly what information the committee and _ this is exactly what information the committee and the _ this is exactly what information the committee and the doj _ this is exactly what information the committee and the doj wants. - this is exactly what information the committee and the doj wants. [it’sl this is exactly what information the l committee and the doj wants. [it’s a committee and the d0] wants. it's a very interesting _ committee and the d0] wants. it's a very interesting moment _ committee and the d0] wants. it's a very interesting moment to - committee and the doj wants. very interesting moment to watch more far. a lot of people make the point on social media that he is connected with donald trump and that they have had interviews and it had communications in the past. when someone is fact checked in real time and we see the judge admonishing alexjones what he believes to be the truth, that is what he goes and says. he says, that's right though the truth was put in the court of law, that does not matter. if your real time fact checking donald trump, this is what it would look like. . ., trump, this is what it would look like. ., ,, ., ., . , like. the court appearance, 'ust incredible to �* like. the court appearance, 'ust incredible to see i like. the court appearance, 'ust incredible to see him i like. the court appearance, justj incredible to see him effectively humbled and taking the stand. the irony— humbled and taking the stand. the irony is. _ humbled and taking the stand. the irony is, this is someone who is a conspiracy— irony is, this is someone who is a conspiracy theorist. he says there are people — conspiracy theorist. he says there are people out there covering of the truth about — are people out there covering of the truth about what's really going on. well, _ truth about what's really going on. well, he _ truth about what's really going on. well, he himself is doing the very same _ well, he himself is doing the very same thing and in a court of law and

the irony— same thing and in a court of law and the irony is — same thing and in a court of law and the irony is now, we are actually going to — the irony is now, we are actually going to see this through because people _ going to see this through because people are going to see with these people _ people are going to see with these people were and it's opened up a real hornets nest in that part of american — real hornets nest in that part of american politics, it will be good to see _ american politics, it will be good to see the — american politics, it will be good to see the transparency and how it operates — to see the transparency and how it operates. will to see the transparency and how it o erates. ~ . to see the transparency and how it o erates. ~ , , operates. will bring in the news, march 550 _ operates. will bring in the news, march $50 million _ operates. will bring in the news, march $50 million in _ operates. will bring in the news, march $50 million in damages i operates. will bring in the news, march $50 million in damages is| operates. will bring in the news, - march $50 million in damages is what the prosecution is asking for. to be informed by what they might�*ve seen informed by what they might�*ve seen in this text messages and expectations may come back with quite a hefty fine for him. now, it is time for the panel. yesterday on the programme, we focused on this extraordinary result in kansas, the referendum on whether or not to take out abortion rights from the constitution in kansas and conservative state voted no. they should stay within it and want some

form of abortion access for people in the state. you have written about that particular question and people were asked and you wanted it rolled out to the rest of the country. explain. out to the rest of the country. exlain. . out to the rest of the country. exlain. , , ., ., explain. this question in kansas was ut explain. this question in kansas was put forward — explain. this question in kansas was put forward by _ explain. this question in kansas was put forward by anti-abortion - put forward by anti—abortion activists— put forward by anti—abortion activists and _ put forward by anti—abortion activists and this _ put forward by anti—abortion activists and this is - put forward by anti—abortion activists and this is been - put forward by anti—abortion activists and this is been a l put forward by anti—abortion - activists and this is been a tactic that the — activists and this is been a tactic that the people _ activists and this is been a tactic that the people on _ activists and this is been a tactic that the people on the - activists and this is been a tactic that the people on the right - activists and this is been a tacticj that the people on the right who oppose — that the people on the right who oppose abortion— that the people on the right who oppose abortion have _ that the people on the right who oppose abortion have been - that the people on the right who| oppose abortion have been doing that the people on the right who - oppose abortion have been doing for decades, _ oppose abortion have been doing for decades, but— oppose abortion have been doing for decades, but when _ oppose abortion have been doing for decades, but when ballot _ oppose abortion have been doing for decades, but when ballot initiativesl decades, but when ballot initiatives before _ decades, but when ballot initiatives before voters — decades, but when ballot initiatives before voters and _ decades, but when ballot initiatives before voters and they _ decades, but when ballot initiatives before voters and they have - decades, but when ballot initiatives before voters and they have had - before voters and they have had limited — before voters and they have had limited success _ before voters and they have had limited success but— before voters and they have had limited success but the - before voters and they have had limited success but the fact - before voters and they have had limited success but the fact that this major— limited success but the fact that this major one _ limited success but the fact that this major one failed _ limited success but the fact that this major one failed in - limited success but the fact that this major one failed in a - this major one failed in a conservative _ this major one failed in a conservative state - this major one failed in a conservative state in - this major one failed in a i conservative state in kansas this major one failed in a - conservative state in kansas is given — conservative state in kansas is given a — conservative state in kansas is given a lot _ conservative state in kansas is given a lot of— conservative state in kansas is given a lot of confidence - conservative state in kansas is given a lot of confidence to - conservative state in kansas is| given a lot of confidence to the pro-abortion, _ given a lot of confidence to the pro—abortion, the _ given a lot of confidence to the pro—abortion, the pro—choice l pro—abortion, the pro—choice advocates— pro—abortion, the pro—choice advocates to _ pro—abortion, the pro—choice advocates to use _ pro—abortion, the pro—choice advocates to use this - pro—abortion, the pro—choice advocates to use this tactic. pro—abortion, the pro—choice| advocates to use this tactic in states— advocates to use this tactic in states across _ advocates to use this tactic in states across the _ advocates to use this tactic in states across the country, - advocates to use this tactic in. states across the country, they advocates to use this tactic in - states across the country, they have now realised — states across the country, they have now realised that _ states across the country, they have now realised that perhaps _ states across the country, they have now realised that perhaps this - states across the country, they have now realised that perhaps this is - now realised that perhaps this is winnable, — now realised that perhaps this is winnable, not _ now realised that perhaps this is winnable, notjust— now realised that perhaps this is winnable, notjust in— now realised that perhaps this is winnable, notjust in the blue i winnable, notjust in the blue liberal— winnable, notjust in the blue liberal states _ winnable, notjust in the blue liberal states but _ winnable, notjust in the blue liberal states but also - winnable, notjust in the blue liberal states but also in - winnable, notjust in the blue liberal states but also in the i liberal states but also in the purple — liberal states but also in the purple swing _ liberal states but also in the purple swing states - liberal states but also in the purple swing states in - liberal states but also in the purple swing states in the l liberal states but also in the i purple swing states in the red states — purple swing states in the red states as _ purple swing states in the red states as well. _ purple swing states in the red states as well. so, _ purple swing states in the red states as well. so, for- purple swing states in the red states as well. so, for the - purple swing states in the redl states as well. so, for the first time _ states as well. so, for the first time since _ states as well. so, for the first time since 1992, _ states as well. so, for the first time since 1992, there - states as well. so, for the first time since 1992, there will- states as well. so, for the first time since 1992, there will be i time since 1992, there will be initiatives _ time since 1992, there will be

initiatives put _ time since 1992, there will be initiatives put forward - time since 1992, there will be initiatives put forward on the i initiatives put forward on the ballot — initiatives put forward on the ballot in _ initiatives put forward on the ballot in november- initiatives put forward on the ballot in november by- initiatives put forward on the ballot in november by these| ballot in november by these pro-choice _ ballot in november by these pro—choice advocates - ballot in november by these| pro—choice advocates hoping ballot in november by these - pro—choice advocates hoping that they can — pro—choice advocates hoping that they can start _ pro—choice advocates hoping that they can start to _ pro—choice advocates hoping that they can start to chip _ pro—choice advocates hoping that they can start to chip away- pro—choice advocates hoping that they can start to chip away at - pro—choice advocates hoping that . they can start to chip away at these limitations — they can start to chip away at these limitations and _ they can start to chip away at these limitations and access _ they can start to chip away at these limitations and access to _ they can start to chip away at these limitations and access to abortion l limitations and access to abortion state. _ limitations and access to abortion state. by— limitations and access to abortion state. by state. _ limitations and access to abortion state, by state, by— limitations and access to abortion state, by state, by state. - limitations and access to abortion state, by state, by state. fire - limitations and access to abortion state, by state, by state.- state, by state, by state. are you an uinu state, by state, by state. are you arguing that _ state, by state, by state. are you arguing that would _ state, by state, by state. are you arguing that would be _ state, by state, by state. are you arguing that would be a _ state, by state, by state. are you arguing that would be a more - arguing that would be a more reflective opinion of the country and we know there's a majority of americans want some form of abortion protection in america and are you saying that there, if you put the question on the ballot, going to full for the congressional candidates, you can get a clear idea of how many people are in favour of the screen absolutely and if you look at the kansas referendum, is 59% of kansas citizens who supported access to abortion. _ 59% of kansas citizens who supported access to abortion. and _ 59% of kansas citizens who supported access to abortion. and we _ 59% of kansas citizens who supported access to abortion. and we look - 59% of kansas citizens who supported access to abortion. and we look at. access to abortion. and we look at public— access to abortion. and we look at public polling. he _ access to abortion. and we look at public polling, he repeatedly- access to abortion. and we look ati public polling, he repeatedly shows that 60% _ public polling, he repeatedly shows that 60% of — public polling, he repeatedly shows that 60% of americans _ public polling, he repeatedly shows that 60% of americans support - public polling, he repeatedly shows i that 60% of americans support access to abortion and — that 60% of americans support access to abortion and to _ that 60% of americans support access to abortion and to really— that 60% of americans support access to abortion and to really mirror- to abortion and to really mirror access— to abortion and to really mirror access of— to abortion and to really mirror access of a _ to abortion and to really mirror access of a conservative - to abortion and to really mirror

access of a conservative statei access of a conservative state really — access of a conservative state really mirrors _ access of a conservative state really mirrors the _ access of a conservative state really mirrors the mood - access of a conservative state really mirrors the mood of. access of a conservative state| really mirrors the mood of the country — really mirrors the mood of the country and _ really mirrors the mood of the country and so, _ really mirrors the mood of the country and so, that _ really mirrors the mood of the country and so, that is- really mirrors the mood of the country and so, that is borne i really mirrors the mood of the . country and so, that is borne out and has — country and so, that is borne out and has not _ country and so, that is borne out and has not been _ country and so, that is borne out and has not been proven- country and so, that is borne out and has not been proven and - country and so, that is borne out. and has not been proven and these abortion rights— and has not been proven and these abortion rights groups _ and has not been proven and these abortion rights groups think- and has not been proven and these abortion rights groups think that i and has not been proven and these abortion rights groups think that it| abortion rights groups think that it will be _ abortion rights groups think that it will be very— abortion rights groups think that it will be very effective _ abortion rights groups think that it will be very effective moving - will be very effective moving forward _ will be very effective moving forward l— will be very effective moving forward. .., . will be very effective moving forward. , ., ., ., forward. i can see their motivation but there's — forward. i can see their motivation but there's a _ forward. i can see their motivation but there's a lot _ forward. i can see their motivation but there's a lot of _ forward. i can see their motivation but there's a lot of democrats i forward. i can see their motivation | but there's a lot of democrats want to move on single issues and will make the base more active, why, separately, will they be different? when they come out to look for this ballot initiative, _ when they come out to look for this ballot initiative, perhaps _ when they come out to look for this ballot initiative, perhaps they- when they come out to look for this ballot initiative, perhaps they will. ballot initiative, perhaps they will also vote — ballot initiative, perhaps they will also vote for— ballot initiative, perhaps they will also vote for democratic- ballot initiative, perhaps they will. also vote for democratic candidates too and _ also vote for democratic candidates too and that is— also vote for democratic candidates too and that is the _ also vote for democratic candidates too and that is the connection - also vote for democratic candidates too and that is the connection the l too and that is the connection the democrats — too and that is the connection the democrats are _ too and that is the connection the democrats are trying _ too and that is the connection the democrats are trying to _ too and that is the connection the democrats are trying to make. i too and that is the connection the democrats are trying to make. 50 too and that is the connection the l democrats are trying to make. 50 it democrats are trying to make. so it will force turnout? _ democrats are trying to make. will force turnout? you're looking at the poverty trap the fact that people who get free school meals, their life chances are diminished when they become adults. that is

riaht when they become adults. that is ri . ht and when they become adults. that is right and this _ when they become adults. that is right and this is _ when they become adults. that is right and this is research - when they become adults. that is right and this is research by i when they become adults. that is right and this is research by the i right and this is research by the national— right and this is research by the national statistics that have done long—term surveys, 38 million people in britain _ long—term surveys, 38 million people in britain and what they have found out is _ in britain and what they have found out is that — in britain and what they have found out is that half of the people who free school meals at school will go on to _ free school meals at school will go on to earn, — free school meals at school will go on to earn, £17,000 or less, low income — onto earn, £17,000 or less, low income but— on to earn, £17,000 or less, low income. but the top 10% to get independent school, private schools of the _ independent school, private schools of the parents paid for by the same a-e of the parents paid for by the same age will— of the parents paid for by the same age will be — of the parents paid for by the same age will be earning 71,000 i think with that — age will be earning 71,000 i think with that underlines is these big differences that are broadly explained by the ability of people to get— explained by the ability of people to get to — explained by the ability of people to get to university and yet, this set a _ to get to university and yet, this set a time — to get to university and yet, this set a time in the uk where we are seeing— set a time in the uk where we are seeing the— set a time in the uk where we are seeing the government dissuade people _ seeing the government dissuade people from going to university and when _ people from going to university and when people do more for location roles— when people do more for location roles but— when people do more for location roles but this is showing is that actually. — roles but this is showing is that actually. it— roles but this is showing is that actually, it is important that young people _ actually, it is important that young people from lower income backgrounds will be _ people from lower income backgrounds will be able to go to university and this data _ will be able to go to university and this data shows that this is part of how they— this data shows that this is part of how they connect up with is better

paid jobs — how they connect up with is better paid jobs. and how they connect up with is better aid “obs. . ., ,., ., ., how they connect up with is better aid “obs. . ., ., ., , paid jobs. and also going to better schools in the _ paid jobs. and also going to better schools in the solution _ paid jobs. and also going to better schools in the solution is _ paid jobs. and also going to better schools in the solution is to - paid jobs. and also going to better schools in the solution is to have l schools in the solution is to have new grammar schools, is that the answer? 3 new grammar schools, is that the answer? ,, ., , . ., new grammar schools, is that the answer? ,, . ., , ., answer? s it might affect a small percentage _ answer? s it might affect a small percentage of — answer? s it might affect a small percentage of young _ answer? s it might affect a small percentage of young people i answer? s it might affect a small percentage of young people in i answer? s it might affect a smalll percentage of young people in our country, the bigger challenge is the fact that coming out of covid—19, a lot of people that there education disrupted and yet people don't have that catch and plan to make sure that catch and plan to make sure that doesn't disadvantage them throughout education as we have seen, and later adult life. it is seen, and later adult life. it is crucial now— seen, and later adult life. it is crucial now that whoever is number ten, crucial now that whoever is number ten. they— crucial now that whoever is number ten, they bring forward a much smarter— ten, they bring forward a much smarter planet education, precisely to tackle _ smarter planet education, precisely to tackle the kinds of issue that the data — to tackle the kinds of issue that the data up tonight. why to tackle the kinds of issue that the data up tonight.— to tackle the kinds of issue that the data up tonight. why do you think we have _ the data up tonight. why do you think we have such _ the data up tonight. why do you think we have such chronic- the data up tonight. why do you i think we have such chronic embedded policies among our children? the .a .s policies among our children? the a -s 0 en policies among our children? the gaps open up there. it goes into the fact that _ gaps open up there. it goes into the fact that there was connections from

people _ fact that there was connections from people from more disadvantaged backgrounds, there is not a good career— backgrounds, there is not a good career advice for the majority of people. — career advice for the majority of people, even when they get into work _ people, even when they get into work this — people, even when they get into work. this evidence shows that even if you _ work. this evidence shows that even if you come — work. this evidence shows that even if you come out of university with the same — if you come out of university with the same class of degree from the same _ the same class of degree from the same course, someone from a privileged — same course, someone from a privileged background is likely to -et privileged background is likely to get on _ privileged background is likely to get on and earn more. it's about connections. but it shows that if you're _ connections. but it shows that if you're going to get opportunity in britain. _ you're going to get opportunity in britain. it's— you're going to get opportunity in britain, it's going to be more than that it's _ britain, it's going to be more than that it's about the right advice, business — that it's about the right advice, business and employers changing and there's— business and employers changing and there's a _ business and employers changing and there's a lot going on to change what _ there's a lot going on to change what is — there's a lot going on to change what is a — there's a lot going on to change what is a very stubborn issue in this opportunity. that is all we have time for this evening. they'll be plenty of news on the leadership debate in which some of these things are coming up. a big to be coming up on schools of the moment. thank you very much indeed for your company and we will be back on monday at the same time, dojoin us for that be back on monday at the same time, do join us for that and thank you for watching this evening. good

night. the very dry weather strand of impacts with the spy band starting for hampshire in the isle of wight. more to come across south east england in the week after that, parts of southern wills as well. so for this year, we only have two thirds of a normal rainfall across england. kind of stress 1976 but thatis england. kind of stress 1976 but that is a lack of rain that has been causing big problems and there is something really in the forecast, and those parts of england and wales, notjust through this week but into the weekend but also next week is going to be bone dry as well. the state brought a sunshine across england and wales again and it was cornwall, port isaac looking stunning but we have scotland and northern ireland where we can see

mountaineer shrouded in some of those showers here during the day. friday is a very similar day of weather nationwide. shows the forecast for scotland and northern ireland in order to for than with with the ringleader wales but across southern wills temperatures are going to change very much either. high teens across much of the uk, the warm response towards east anglia in the southeast above 25 degrees them and to find whether in the forecast of the athletes of the commonwealth games for friday. temperature is about 22 degrees it should be perfect conditions really. friday and overnight, an area of clouds during the move in from the northwest of the uk and by the end of the night, scotland is french into the far north of the island, gives the bed and temperatures by eight to 12 celsius and for saturday morning. saturday was a bit of rain working infant with the front across

the north of scotland and can see mist and fog patches in the hills for a time and for the southwards, plenty of sunshine, temperatures in class: 18 for belfast, widely across england and wales in the low 205 but mid 205 and the warm response across eastern areas of england. sunday again, the northwest of the uk which was in the thickest cloud and few patchy showers. further southwards, for most it is a dry day with further spells of sunshine and notice this temperature starting to creep up in 22 degrees in belfast, 25 for cardiff and 27 in london for sunday. looking at the jet stream pattern into next week, this big rich building into the north of the uk and what that does is it because of sinking airaround uk and what that does is it because of sinking air around the british isles and that creates areas of high pressure and this is the high pressure and this is the high pressure building across the country through sunday and into the early part of next week it really does

start to become even more dominant as well. given the light winds of the long days. in august, was of this temperatures building and warmer, if not harder by the pushing back in. for the north of the uk where the weather has been to bit more changeable of late, means a subtle spell of weather with temperatures moving into the low to me 205 in a warm spell of sunshine in the forecast then it did next week. but some pause in the new mills, becomes quite hard with temperatures moving back into the low 305 and the hottest areas and find whether from manchester, low 305 and the hottest areas and find whetherfrom manchester, 25 degrees or so in the sunshine here. but of course, all the dry weather means no rain in sight and that is not going to for the bands that are coming into force.

tonight at ten... in its bleakest assessment of the economy so far, the bank of england says a recession is coming which could last for over a year. and it has another warning — soaring domestic energy prices will see inflation rising to around 13%. it's really, really hard at the moment because the rent has gone up, all the bills have gone up. it's really difficult. and all the food prices, the fuel prices. many mortgage holders will be hit by the bank now raising interest rates by 0.5% in an effort to counteract rising prices.