another roller-coaster ride for oil prices as the iran-israel conflict escalates and uncertainty remains over us involvement. a reprieve for tiktok: donald trump extends the deadline for the sale of the social media site in the us for a further 90 days. also on the programme: planning for the future - we hear from india's commerce minister on why now is the right time for businesses to make the most of the upcoming uk-india trade deal. and scaring tourists away: as protests against overtourism grow, locals and businesses worry that visitors may be put off - we report from mallorca.

live from london, this is business today. i'm lukwesa burak. we start with the ongoing conflict in the middle east and the impact on oil and markets. as we've been reporting, president trump has said he'll decide in the next two weeks whether to get involved in israel's war against iran. he added that he believed there was a significant possibility of negotiations. well, oil prices have been on a roller-coaster over the last 24 hours. brent crude rose almost 3% on thursday amid the escalation of the conflict and uncertainty about potential us involvement. it's now gone down again and is trading at around $77 a barrel after donald trump delayed his decision on whether the us will get involved in the conflict. joining me now is gaurav

sharma, energy analyst at oilholics synonymous. lovely to have you with us. can you explain, normally with uncertainty we see things go up so why suddenly they drop back down to levels we saw a number of weeks ago? good to be back. what you are witnessing now is the market has taken stock of the situation and concurred there is some backup point in the system because a lot of oil is right now coming from non-middle eastern sources such as the united states itself, canada, brazil, norway, you name it, so essentially if this conflict happens ten years ago ahead of the us summer driving season he would have seen

prices overshoot, head towards $100, but because there is a lot of buffer in the system right now you and they are talking about $80 or not, last week before the hostilities began we are somewhere in the region of 65, 67, and now it is $10 up. the only reason there has been a bit of a lid on prices is because there's a lot of non-middle eastern oil in the market. there was a recent opec plus decision made on oil capacities apply demand. remind us that viewers are not up-to-date the context and why that is significant? even opec, before this began the day signal it will book book oil onto the market, the saudis threatened the facts that opec was losing market share and they wanted to have the market more than they did, they

reacted and opec up the stakes by putting somewhere in the region around 400 million back onto the market, and that also kind of calm the waters a bit before all this began. the northern hemisphere countries, i imagine, and the energy markets, some of those will be watching oil prices are very closely. there is gas within the supply chain as well but if the iran oil is eventually cut off, who will be the hardest hit? we should be most concerned? most definitely china. iran is currently sitting around 1.6 5 million barrels per day out to china, most of this is not heading to other countries because of restrictions caused by international sanctions, so the chinese are buying a lot of discounted crude because they have their own system in terms of payments. were there to be a

massive disruption in the national markets, the chinese will be the first to supplement. a pleasure, thank you. president trump has granted a third reprieve to tiktok, allowing another 90 days for the social media platform to find a non-chinese owner on national security grounds. the white house had signalled the new extension earlier this week, saying mr trump did not want to see tiktok go dark for its us users. more than half of americans have an account. speaking on thursday, the white house press secretary, karoline leavitt, explained why president trump had given tiktok a further reprieve. the white house counsel office in the department of justice strongly believe in the legal rationale for this executive order, they are not have the president do it if they didn't analytical reasoning is because the president made a promise to keep tiktok on. there are 100 million americans who use it,

it is wildly popular, he also wants to protect american data and privacy concerns and he believes we can do both at the same time. he is making an extension so we can get this deal done. let's speak now to ryan calo, a professor of law at the university of washington, who specialises on tech. welcome to the programme. listening to what karoline leavitt had to say there, within the context of the legal framework where it is the decision is it? it has been unlawful since 19 january to support tiktok in any way in reaching americans. what the present administration has done has been to an ounce a forbearance on enforcing the law which is in effect, it is very clear it is a legal right

now. many people will say why is it illegal? because there was an act of congress that said it is unlawful to support tiktok reaching americans in any way, if they do not divest by 19 january. congress provided a pathway for an extension of 90 days where if the sitting president were to certify to congress that there was a path towards divestiture, meaning some other company, american company, would buy tiktok as opposed to china, there could be a pause. but the trump administration has completely ignore that and with three successive executive orders simply told the department of justice not to enforce the law. in other words, the law is in effect and has been for months but the trump administration is simply not enforcing it. let's just go back and remind people why this

was, when you talk about the law, the decision yesterday being illegal. what was the evidence that made it illegal? obviously the defence and the allegation is national security, what is the bytedance defence? let me just say that personally i do not think it was a very wise law. i do not think congress made the right choice in banning an entire platform like tiktok that hundreds of millions of americans use. on the mere speculation it was possible that tiktok would share information with the chinese government or manipulate the perceptions of americans. i do not think that was a smart thing for congress to do. that said, it is what they did, and that it was challenged all the way up to the supreme court, and the supreme court said that

the law did not violate the first amendment and gave it the green light. so as unwise as i think the law was, because it was based on mere speculation, it became the law of the land are now the trump administration is essentially ignoring it. professor, the thing with tiktok is there is significant financial benefits to its users. was there any legal option for its users on the lost income? absolutely not. the law that congress passed, and again went into effect on 19 january this year, essentially said if tiktok does not divest from china and become an essence in american company that nobody can access it. there was no provision to compensate the many millions of americans who are now living on tiktok, which while important

is less important than the many millions of americans who are using tiktok to express themselves politically and artistically. very interesting, thank you very much. with more armed conflict around the world, spending on the military is rising once again. it's now at levels last seen during the cold war almost 40 years ago. while much of the money is going to the big established companies, there is also a new generation of smaller businesses working with drones and artificial intelligence which are receiving billions of dollars of investment. for this week's talking business, my colleague mark lobel interviewed the boss of one uk company which works with ai driven technology for drones and who's just raised $2 million of investment funding. he asked him how the war in ukraine has changed how military technology is developing.

the pace of innovation in ukraine is unheard of so they are working on development life-cycle with able deploy some equipments, the frontline will give them some feedback, they will adjust the software and hardware, redeployed again, so what it means is that what might be cutting-edge today could be completely useless and useful as a bridge in a month's time, so different is completely not used to being able to operate this life-cycle and that is why it is important for some of the slower moving companies and the to work with agile smes and start-ups. the ukrainians are adapting constantly and they are doing these are using ai to try to automate the intelligence process although you're putting tens of thousands of kilometres worth of fibre optics on the drawings so their drones become completely impervious to any enemy interference so they can navigate without things like

that. the technology they use is readily available, really cheap, and they are used to take out what could be enemy equipment that is worth tens of,000 times more than the equipment they are using. the best example of this is operation spider's web where 117 ukrainian drones caused, is that of $7 billion worth of damage to russian equipment. you are talking about the attack on 1 june they took a 41 aircraft, bombers, and spy planes? when you read the news, did you understand the technology that had been used or are you surprised it existed? i say the whole attack was immensely impressive in terms of how it had never been done before, and to actually have all these drones smuggled in on trucks to be able to remotely launch them and actually have them deliver

their successful missions, it was absolutely incredible and it has never been done before.

in the uk, the bank of england held interest rates on thursday but signalled a possible cut as soon as august after recent data showed a weakening jobs market. governor andrew bailey said interest rates remain "on a gradual downward path" but warned that the world is highly unpredictable. there are concerns that the conflict between israel and iran - a major oil producer - could send energy costs higher and drive overall prices up, which would impact further rate decisions. let's speak now to chris beauchamp, chief market analyst at ig.

first off, just your reaction to the decision on thursday? no surprise the bank of england inaudible but the emphasis remains on expecting because later in the year. it is made harder by inaudible because it raises the risk of high oil prices which when you couple that with economies we have in the uk, it does make them rather more difficult to contemplate further rate cuts. the jobs market as well, do we expect some figures to come through? perhaps next month with the public sector, is a relatively solid figures in terms of nothing too surprising for markets, but the jobs market is getting worse, the trend is to the downside, inaudible, and while that is

leaving for cuts, the fact the uk economy is entering this week patch is still a worry. inflation is above target and the job market is weakening and it is a nightmare combination for the central bank. there was a lot of discussion when we had the review, was a week or two ago? the idea that we would see a rise in taxes to pay, for example the nhs, which received - which is one of the winners in the decision. is that still factored in? it is only a worry that yes, we have only had that increase in the nhs, which is worse inaudible and if you had an increase in taxes in the autumn but will he consumer spending and the concern is if you hit consumer spending through that and you have high all prices are might be higher than they are now. that does continue to crimp the economy, it hits company activity, and that could tip us towards a

period of weaker economic growth. the bank of england would need to respond with rate cuts. if you move fast enough into cutting rates, it is important for the economy. what have we heard on the uncertainty coming out of this conflict between israel and iran? has the bank of england set anything on that and how do they factor anything into their future decisions? we had a similar thing from the us central bank as well, it was pointed out it does make the situation more volatile, does mean it could make a return, and in the uk inflation is already above targets, so the theory that the bank of england should increase rates, but the awareness is if the us through the conflict which was the oil prices continue to move $10 higher than they were at if they continue with inflation it does make life more difficult for consumers and puts pressure

on the economy and clearly it worsens as well because you have a situation where inflation remains high even as a job market continues to get worse. it will be people at home who are worried as they watch this unfold and what matters as well. thank you very much. the uk and india recently concluded a free trade deal, and this week the india global forum took place in london, where the focus was on what steps british and indian business can take now to make the most of the opportunities presented by the deal - even before it has been ratified. our business reporter david waddell was at the forum and caught up with the india commerce minister piyush goyal. the legal scrubbing is currently under way. however, i think the time is now right for businesses on both sides to start engaging with each other, some planning for the future, start building up

collaborations, joint ventures, trading relationships, investment partnerships, so that it creates jobs, it creates business opportunities, both for the uk and india. turning to the us, you have had repeat visits to washington where president trump called india a serial abuser of tariffs. is that fair? are you learning to adapt? clearly india is a country that large parts of the world was to do business with and it is going to be the biggest opportunity over the next 20 or 30 years in terms of economic growth, in terms of potential for business, and i think countries across the world are now looking up to work with india to develop friendly relationships with them. you have high tariffs, your average

tariff is 12%. how do you justify such high... they are a misnomer. the real figure to be seen is the applied tariff. the applied tariff in most cases is in the low single digits. so while the tariff for wto purposes, they look at the 12,000 lines, no country trade with each other on 12,000 lines. but these lines of trade, if you adjust the tariffs? that is what happens with free trade agreements. to safeguard against countries that have unfair trading practices, against countries with predatory pricing. only to china, your trade deficit is closing in on $100 million. how concerned are you about consumer goods dumping from china? we are very concerned, we are taking appropriate action whenever we find any sort of dumping. and it is

unfortunate that about 20 years ago india only had a small trade deficit with china. unfortunately, india open the floodgates to imports from china, and in a ten year period from 2004 to 2014 our trade deficit with china became 26 times what it was. as we enter into bilateral agreements with other parts of the world, we are hoping that we will expand trade and economic activity in the developed world. and bring some more quality standards to india so that substandard goods and predatory pricing do not hurt indian economy. looking at the terrible tragedy of the air india crash this month, or serves as your government taken to improve aviation safety? it

has been a very sad tragedy, i pay my condolences to all the families who lost their near and dear ones. of course the investigation into the causes of the accident is under way, and i do believe that it will have to be a concerted effort between the manufacturing companies and all the user airlines. to learn from such tragedies and create the right framework, to avoid any such recurrence. last year's anti-tourism protests in europe drew global headlines. this summer, the tensions are back, with more protests. earlier this week, locals in spain have been shooting water guns at visitors, saying a flood of summer visitors is driving up housing costs in their cities and pushing out locals. however, many local residents and businesses are concerned that tourists may be

frightened away. simon browning reports from mallorca. touchdown majorca. summer 2025 is on. the mass migration south for sun, sea and sights is under way, but unrest remains in our favour paradise. protesting against tourism on spain's streets is back, and the the holiday industry is starting to worry. the issues of over tourism are so pertinent here in palma. i've been walking the street and come across this protest. this represents the main problem we have here in the balearic islands, especially in palma. we have a lot of problems to kind of afford to rent. if you have to pay this in the rent, it's more than your salary. it's impossible to ask. a hot issue for the local press - how the surge in visitors and a boom in our b&bs and illegal holiday apartments

is making it hard for locals to find somewhere to live. it's no surprise that spain is the uk's favourite holiday destination. just look at it. and here in palma and over in majorca, the restaurant owners and bars are keen to make sure that brits know it's still up for tourism, regardless of the protests. resorts like this, filled with bars, restaurants and shops, were built for our holidays. spain's economy has done very well from them. very few protests happen here. of course, i will tell them don't be afraid. come to us, we are grateful for having you, we need the british tourism. spain anticipates 100 million visitors this year. a record. its ambassador to the uk is keen to stress protests are small and do not represent the view of the spanish people. what does the spanish government want to say to those people who were squirted with water pistols in cafes on sunday, who've paid to come to spain to eat your food,

drink your coffee, drink your beer and enjoy the sights, and they're met with being sprayed with water? we are awfully sorry and it does not represent at all the feeling in spain. you know how well tourists are treated in spain - and british people particularly. the atmosphere in spain is not hostile at all. on the contrary, it is as friendly as ever, and we are working hard, as you know, now not on making numbers grow. we don't want numbers to grow. we want satisfaction to grow in spain. the spanish government has begun tighter regulation of holiday flats. the industry is bitter about the damage rentals have done. a long hot summer is ahead. simon browning, bbc news in majorca. stay with us because we have

all the leaders have those coming up the top of hour including news that iran has fired missiles into southern