live from singapore, this is bbc news. us president donald trump declares a "complete and total ceasefire" between israel and iran. we're yet to hear confirmation from either side - but the white house says both countries have agreed to the proposal. hours earlier, iran launched an attack on a key us airbase in qatar. air defences intercepted the missiles and the gulf state has since reopened its airspace. and coming up on business today, oil prices tumble as markets breathe a sigh of relief. do this because supply won't be disrupted. i'm here for the world economic forum. policy makers will be pleased that the supply of hormuz is intact for

now, but there are plenty of other challenges to global growth to be discussed. welcome to newsday. i'm katie silver. us president donald trump has announced that a ceasefire agreement has been reached between israel and iran. he says it's set to come into effect in the coming hours. in a social media post president trump said the ceasefire would be complete and total.

it's expected to start in the next few hours. trump's announcement contains a periodic unravelling of hostilities but says that "upon the 24th hour" the war will officially end. iran and israel have yet to confirm a ceasefire has been -- iran and israel have yet to confirm a ceasefire has been reached. according to a senior white house official speaking to our us partner cbs, both israel and iran have agreed to the ceasefire - with israel agreeing to the deal on the condition that iran doesn't launch further attacks. i'm joined now from washington by our north america correspondent jake kwon. will jake, quite the quick turnaround. can you give us more of a sense of what president trump posted - including a timetable for how this ceasefire would come into effect? for peace. he said that there would be a ceasefire in a few hours and that at first the iranians will hold their fire for 12 hours then the israelis will hold their fire for 12 hours, then there will be at official ceasefire. we haven't had an official statement from the israelis. we had a few moments ago from the iranian foreign minister saying that there is no official agreement of ceasefire, but if the israelis stop their attack, the iranians will stop their response. it feels that there

is a sideway acceptance or acknowledgements that they will be a ceasefire. it looks like there has been a diplomatic offramp reached him and we had from cbs news that the american secretary of state, marco rubio, and jd vance, vice president, and the special envoy, steve witkoff, who has gone between the israelis and the iranians and, the qatari is, to arrange the diplomatic effort in ceasefire. of course, there has been this aspect here of performance and i think it feels like we have known that we were going to reach this point really since the iranians struck the us base in qatar. the iranians have notified the qataris, who notified the americans that the attack was coming. after the attack, the iranians have made a strong statement, but the message bow

down to "if you don't attack us any further, we also want to take you". and the american response to that has been, of course, you know, the iranians have attacked us, but no american but was spilt, so it is a time for peace and we can both walk away from this. i think there was enough reason and motivation on both sides to walk away from this conflict and not escalating any further. you say that, but it sounds like iran's perspective that they want israel to stop first, which is at the timetable that donald trump posted. -- isn't. he's calling it the 12-day war. it is important to look at it as two separate conflicts. there is the iranians versus israelis, and the iranians versus american. the one we were worried about was the escalation of this conflict

beyond the region into a conflict between iranians and americans. i think president trump has been very adamant, very vocal that american war goal has been reached. he has been very, you know, he spoke with almost certainty that iranian nuclear programme has been destroyed fully and now it is done americans can now walk away. the goal has been done. iranians also want to walk away from it and president trump, he sees himself as a dealmaker. so he really has, in his claim, has removed the nuclear programme and now he has a diplomatic victory, where he can say "i have," you know, "made to be still happen between the israelis and the iranians." thank you for your reporting from washington, jake kwon. as jake was saying, much is still unclear

about how firm this supposed ceasefire is - mark lowen has this assessment from tel aviv. there has been no confirmation from the israeli government or the iranians government. but we have seen israeli media coverage of suggestions that israel was passing messages, signals, to arrive and come neighbours, that it wants to wrap up this war within a couple of days. this error in mind that iranian missiles have breached the israeli defence shields, causing damage. israel is burning through its interceptors. they have been debts here from the iranian missiles. and israel doesn't want a long war of attrition. that, coupled with the fact that donald trump is 's posts after that iranians attack on the us base in qatar suggested that he saw it as an isolated attack that was telegraphed in advance. perhaps that would suggest a kind of joint approach from israel and the us to iran to say "look, let's

wind this down. " the big question is how iran is going to respond. it has been so weakened over the past ten days. it has incredible mistrust, now, of the trump administration and, of course, along mistrust of israel. will it see this post is another decoy, roots, and attempt to lull it into a false sense of security? and are the warmongers and hawks around the regime going to say "let's just carry on"? mark lowen reporting there. i'm joined now by sheida hooshmandi, from bbc persian, part of the bbc world service. sheida, thank you for joining me. no word confirming the ceasefire yet. given what you know about the damage that's been inflicted, and the level of support the leaders currently have - do you think it's likely? it is very important to sort of dissect and interpret what messages are coming out of

iran. so right before the foreign minister of orion coming and saying that if israel stops their attacks, they will no longer attack israel, and he gives a timeline, saying "until 4am, to runtime, they have time to stop these." just before that, the feisty newsagency, the irgc associated newsagency, said that the ceasefire suggestion was all bowls and they are basically going to respond to the so-called fabrication in media. -- fars news agency. i even more attacks against israel. so while a section of the government is trying to talk about ceasefire, a part of the regime doesn't want that. when you consider the fact that

they are so weakened and have nothing more to lose, they have a commander-in-chief that is hiding, is 86 years old, paranoid - even the messages that washington sends to him doesn't reach him. considering all those facts, it seems like it is a regime that is most probably divided and there are arguments within the regime whether they should accept the ceasefire suggestion or not. or whether it is a game that is being played by washington, dc. and as you are saying there, we have heard confirmation in the last hour that the iranians foreign ministry is seen as been no agreement, but that they would stop if israel stopped. can you give me an idea of the sentiment in iran at the moment? we have a report

about many people fleeing to neighbouring countries. what are you hearing there in terms of how fearful people offer their lives every day? just a few hours before, israel idf announced that district six and seven of tehran, everyone in their, they need to evacuate their homes. and ever since then there have been attacks within these highly densely populated areas within tehran. people are terrified. what i am seeing from the messages sent is what they are seeing tonight appears to be one of the heaviest attacks on tehran in the past two weeks. people are terrified, running away, and they have panicked. they are lining up in parks, industries, and people to believe that the ceasefire is going ahead, because the amount of attacks on the scale of it was just too

much. some people say this is the worst they have seen from this - since the war started. even ctv is saying reports indicate some areas of tehran as in the most intense air defence clashes since june 13. the sentiment is that people who are pessimistic about the ceasefire and are just running away from their homes in fear of their lives. thank you for your reporting from bbc persian, part of the bbc world service. for more on this story let's speak to jon wolfsthal, director of global risk at the federation of american scientists, and former advisor to presidents obama and biden on national security affairs and nuclear security. thank you for joining me. donald trump is saying there is

a ceasefire, arising possibly not. can a world free so relieved that this conflict has been contained as donald trump is that it has been? should hope it is contained an episode want to de-escalate. but donald trump has a history of declaring victory and ceasefire is where none exists. they have been multiple ceasefire is announced in ukraine and russia that haven't held, and it is unclear whether the israelis are prepared to seize the hostilities against iran. i think we'll have to wait and see if this declaration has any back behind it. i want to talk to other claims made by donald trump that when he said that the us strikes had totally obliterated the iranian nuclear programme, how much we believe those claims? i think it is important to know that the president has said that but the president of the dressed use in his conference yesterday said it would take some time for any bomb damage assessment. it is

entirely possible that these fixed facilities have been damaged if not destroyed, but we don't know where iran's stockpile of enriched uranium as been mooted. we know it has been moved out of the targeted locations. we have good reason to believe that iran has been stockpiling enrichment equipment at other locations, not subject to international inspections. what we don't know - it is entirely possible that iran has undeclared facilities whether nuclear material could be processed and raises the question about what the israeli or american attacks have achieved. they may not have set back the nuclear programme at all and may have given iranians who want a nuclear programme and weapon justification for pursuing one. based on what we know about the damage, can you give us a sense of how the international community or is really sources can track the level of nuclear programme there and whether or not we may be able to see how much is

remaining? sure. it is unclear since most of these facilities are - at least the main one at fordow, is a buried facility. you can't assess a buy sell at or images from the ground. the only way we will know if this ability is completely destroyed is for international inspectors from the atomic energy agency to be allowed on site. i think is highly doubtful that orion will ever allow international inspectors its territory again. it raises the prospect that if they deny our -- access, it could be used for further justification of military force. it could be sometime before we know if the fixed sites have been destroyed and we may never know whether iran has been able to move its nuclear capability elsewhere our eyes. and i want to turn just overnight we saw an attack by iran on the us airbase, a crucial us airbase in qatar.

interestingly we understand that iranian foreign sources told washington added this announcement, president trump thanking them for doing so, and as a result there were few casualties. does that mean that this was symbolic? this is the weirdest war i have seen. the united states apparently told around that it was going to attack the facilities in advance, even though the secretary of defence pete agsa said there was complete operational security around this. and around it if i was going to attack the qatari airbase so missile defences be activated. it seems both sides, the stress with a domestic political purposes and performative. i hope that they have the impact of deescalating the crisis and giving some chance for all sides to back away from this conflict. but, in the end, if the conflict does stop, we are left where we

were before the conflict began. iran will still have some nuclear capability, it will still be able to pursue that, we have no diplomatic agreement akin to what we negotiated under the obama administration that would turn that off, and, at some point, is i will look at itself and ask what they achieved. they still have an iranian regime in place that they don't like and a nuclear programme that they can't control and further attack might be a solution to those problems. it is just around 2.5 hours until the alleged ceasefire is to come into effect. how do you see it playing out over the next 12 hours? do you see iran stopping the strikes? i don't think there is any incentive for iran to keep firing their limited supplies of missiles at the united states or israel. if israel refrains from attacking, i think orion will hold fire. iran has every incentive to lay

low, start to rebuild nuclear capabilities and missile capabilities and the hopes that they can delay any further action into something they can control. i think they will benefit from oil sales and try to prop up the regime as best they can. the question is whether bibi netanyahu will say that is enough, or say there are things that he was to achieve and find any stews to go after iran again. it is unclear what steps iran might take. remember when general saul mining was killed, it took several years to orchestrate attacks against us officials. i think the iran will play the long game, but i think there will be hope that the ceasefire will hold. -- general soleimani.

you're live with bbc new. as tensions have continued to ramp up in iran, and the situation for iranians has become more and more dangerous, some have started to flee, making their way to neighbouring armenia. the bbc's andrew harding sent this report from the border town of agarak and spoke to iranians crossing in. the sky over tehran today, crowded with giant plumes of smoke, israel's military bombing the iranian capital with what it called "unprecedented force".

among the targets within this densely populated city, the vast and notorious evin prison, where the regime detains many thousands of activists, political opponents and foreigners including, until her release, the british iranian nazanin zaghari-ratcliffe. casualties have been reported here. the israelis appear to have been aiming specifically and symbolically at the prison courthouse where so many critics of the regime have been sentenced. an israeli military spokesperson acknowledged targeting "iran's institutions of state repression". hence these scenes too - israel bombing the base of a paramilitary force in the capital, known for its role in crushing street protests. in the mountains far north of tehran, this lush valley has become a focus for some civilians trying to escape the violence.

this is the border with armenia, and we've come to the armenian side. it's maybe ten hours' drive from here to tehran but, for now, this is as close as we can get to iran and to the turmoil shaking the islamic republic. lugging their bags across the border into armenia, not a flood but a steady stream of iranians fleeing the conflict. everybody is afraid and everybody had enough. enough of what? enough of the regime, enough of the killing of the regime. do you see lots of people preparing to leave? oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, lots of them. traffic and this and that and people - they don't know where to go, how far to go. where to be safe. do you think the current leadership inside iran will survive? translation: i can't say. those who started this war want to remove the regime, but i don't know if they will succeed or if the religious fanatics in iran will hold their ground.

we will see. an iranian flag in the distance. many crossing the border here were reluctant to speak to us for fear of reprisals back in iran. what we have here is a tiny window into what's going on inside iran itself. we've spoken to dozens of people who fled the country since the bombing started. the mood overall is one of profound uncertainty. there's genuine fear too and also a very cautious sense of hope. but those seeking regime change acknowledge that could mean a long and risky war. my children, my brother also can die, ok? but this is the war and, for everything to change, some things, ok, we have to pay something. you have to sacrifice? yeah. so you think the americans have done the right thing? yes. andrew harding, bbc news on the iranian-armenian border. i'm joined now by

said shehata from bbc arabic, who is in our london newsroom. thank you for joining me. i want to ask you about the response of the region on this attack on the us airbase in qatar. i know a number of countries have condemned it. egypt, the united arab emirates, arabia, bahrain, jordan, kuwait, oman - almost all countries are condemning what happened because it is a violation of international law, a violation of the sovereignty of qatar and certainly looking for a peaceful solution for the war between israel and iran. can you give me a sense of how people there are feeling at the moment in terms of how perilous the situation feels? i understand tehran has made threats regarding various us assets within the region, which are, of course, in a number of different countries. how is all of this being seen in neighbouring countries? i think

after the iranian strike on al udeid airbase in qatar, which is calculated response by iran and informed and communicated to the united states and qatar, according to us president donald trump. it wasn't that retaliation which makes america respond. so i think the chapter is closed so far regarding the iranian retaliation against american interests in the region. a remember after the assassination of qasem soleimani, and the strike against the iranian consulate in syria, the iranian response is calculated and communicated before, in order to save the face of the regime, because the regime cannot take it like that. but the damages, you know, not great, because, like, the al udeid air base was

evacuated before, no report of any injuries or damages. so it was, at this point, it was an announcement from iran that is the end of it. after that, mr trump announced a ceasefire agreement between iran and israel, even the iranian foreign minister posted on meta platform" no agreement yet." because there is about 50 minutes now passed. --on the "x platform". so it is the calculator calculation by - a response by iran. it was welcomed, and the announcement of donald trump is welcomed. the hope is both sides commit

to the ceasefire. said,

welcome to business today. global stock markets are rising in the price of oil has taken a deep dive, as concerns over disruptions to the global oil trade eased. i am joined by our asia business correspondent. thank you for joining me. business leaders and political leaders gathering for the world economic forum, the event known as summer davos. we are