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tv   The Pulse  Bloomberg  March 30, 2015 4:00am-6:01am EDT

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anchor bank -- francine: we will hear from the labour leader, ed miliband. deadlocked before the deadline. iranian and western diplomats. greece's redline as talks continue to receive bailout money. the prime minister alexis tsipras will not agree to recessionary measures. francine: welcome to "the pulse." i am francine lacqua
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we have a very packed show. the iranian negotiations and the latest from the reporter who has been traveling with the secretary of state john kerry. and the launch of the u.k. election. guy johnson will join me later today. he is covering labour leader, ed miliband. his manifesto and we will bring his first interview of the day following the that at 12:30 p.m. u.k. time. a grease negotiating with creditors -- and degrees negotiable with creditors. the prime minister tsipras will talk about the reforms later today. in athens, we are joined by hans nichols. hands, let's kick off with you. what kind of a reforms are needed that will satisfy? hans: specific reforms is what
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we hear out of brussels and berlin. what we had submitted on the weekend, yes, they talk about another $3 billion in revenue. several like on -- and they are relying on optimistic growth projections. for this year, it allows them to get to 1.5 target. 2.5 of the has to do with property tax which mr. tsipras railed against. more money and value added tax. nothing specific on what he plans to do with pension reforms or labor reforms. those are two areas from mr. schaeuble they want to see specifics. they have deadlines. on their calendar, they made the deadline today. this march 30 and they submitted their list of reform. later in the week, a meeting of
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the ecb, none monetary policy meeting and they will most likely decide if they will increase liquidity. and then april 9, the payment due to the imf. unclear if they can make the payment without getting some of them $7.2 billion left over from the bailout. they have another day in april april 14, rollover treasury bills and what billion euros on april 17. can greek banks by them? will the ecb allow them? the ecb is torn. they do not want to lose the most as it may have a supervisory role. that is the mix of things going on right now. we have a greek minister over the weekend saying confrontation is really the only way out of it. i am carries to see what the markets has to say -- markets
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has to say. francine: let's get to marcus. what will tsipras say to lawmakers? marcu a chance fors: tsipras -- marcus: a chance for tsipras to justify what it needs to happen and also a big question of what kind of rhetoric we will see today and whether it is gearing up for more battle or conciliatory. it has been a cup -- tough couple of months. probably more so then expected. getting a tough ride domestically as mentioned the energy minister considered a harder line on the party's left and really got -- i really coming out over the weekend. the government came under
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criticism after last month for the extension on february 20 for not taking get to a vote in parliament. it is a chance to let a lot of it out and event. francine: hands if we go back what are the growth assumptions? hans: in terms of meeting that one .5% primary surplus target. here is the target you have seen over 50% capital flight. -- in terms of meeting that 1.5% primary surplus target. from january and february numbers are down. it doesn't suggest expansion. it is on the idea a greek economy that is going to continue to grow. we will not get official figures i believe until made. it is unclear if the germans and
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eurogroup are going to allow these optimistic growth assumptions and then figure out how to allow greece to go over. francine? francine: there is this payout that they have to give to the imf. it is likely they will be able to pay but also a chance they will not. are people talking about it or people ignoring it? marcus bensasson: there are a lot of mixed signals by and large. there have been some difficulties without it. it is hard to gauge. and there is some backtracking. as with the cash situation in greece, it depends on how much money is in the bank. the payment itself is not huge. they know that will not to get more bailout dispersed.
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but that will find a way to find cash by april 9. as we said numerous times before, it is an extremely tough month and put a big strain on the public finances. what kind of state they are in. francine: marcus bensasson thank you. and hans nichols. for more on greece's challenge, let's bring in our guest. great to have you on the program. give me a sense of how worried you are about greece. we do not know how much they have in their coffers and if they can make it. guest: we are getting close where they are running out of the cash flow. they have quite a bit measures to extricate because many of the greek people have delayed making payments and so there are incentives to try payments to accelerate.
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but i think there are more immediate issues and they will a -- barely been to get through the pension payments. it is as dire as it is going to get. and the flight of capital out of the banking system. and that means capital controls will not be that far away unless something gets done very quickly. i think the power is basically waning away from the greeks to the eu. francine: you said as dire as it gets, your optimistic, not as had as it is now? ashok shah: the payments in the next two or three months, there needs to be a a credit extended or the ecb -- a new line of credit extended on the ecb. and that it needs to be replaced by eu or ecb money in place or it will be taken away.
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francine: at the end of the day -- it is a political decision right? one has to reform the institutions to give a little bit of a less tough time. do you think that they will? marcus bensasson -- ashok shah: i think the greek government will have to agree to some of the measures for austerity and perhaps at a lower level or not at all. a question of politically this was all kind of going to go against what has been promised to the greek people. francine: we have a very busy day. we are covering the iranian negotiations. what do you worry about the most? ashok shah: ultimately you talk about oil producers and the oil market for it in the short-term, it is fairly neutral. you look at the run and even if an agreement is reached -- iran
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and even if an agreement is reached, their supply is one million barrels a lot. francine: they have 30 million they are storing so would that not flood the market? ashok shah: at a steady pace and other opec members have to make room for supply that will come out of iran otherwise the prices are going to take a big dive. it is a real issue but much slower than perhaps a quarter way from when it becomes a real issue. a slow steady and maybe two quarters before it comes in. they want access to the international market and so on. to get a capital to flow in and out and developments to take
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place for now. francine: ashok shah stays with us. and we will be talking about nigeria as well. what else is on the radar. another day of toes between iranian and western negotiation taking place in switzerland. the two sides have 48 hours for the deadline before deal over iran's nuclear power. the limits being imposed on the program. and vote counting in nigeria as presidential elections extended into a second today yesterday after an equipment malfunction. tensions rose in a key oil-producing reason -- region. and they u.k. general election campaign officially begins today and prime minister david cameron will visit buckingham palance to meet with the queen for the
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formal start of the most uncertain election campaign for a generation. polling indicates conservatives nor ed miliband labour party will win enough seats to govern alone. in enough seats to govern alone. coming up -- ed miliband will be here at bloomberg and will unveil his manifesto and will will bring his first interview of the day at 12:30 p.m. the twitter question -- how are you trading the u.k. election? you can tweet. we will see you in a second. ♪
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francine: welcome back to "the pulse." foreign ministers from six world powers are meeting in switzerland in an effort to reach a framework deal on the nuclear program. the two sides are trying to reach a tuesday night deadline. we are joined by indira. both sides are saying to the other needs to make tough decisions. indira: this was happening simultaneously. on the ground floor of this hotel where the talks are taking place overlooking lake geneva we
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have the iranian deputy saying the other side has to make hard choices and we have made compromises and it is their time to make compromises. as speaking on the other end of the hallway in the lobby, the british foreign minister hammond was saying the same thing to the press. the other side it means to make harder decision and the decision has come now. on one level, it may be last-minute negotiating tactics and every body trying to get the best possible deal. it may be that everybody has got into their best possible position and this is as far as they can go. it seems as though the talks i do not want to use the word "deadlock" but at a turning point where one side is going to have to give. francine: what are the chances other two sides reaching a deal before the deadline?
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indira: they have until tuesday night, to midnight to make their self-imposed deadline. there are several things that can happen. they could make that. if it looks like they will not get to that, they can decided they will extend. that is not like anything happens after midnight. they do not turn into pumpkins. they made the deadline because they wanted to make sure they had enough time to craft a deal tactical details over the next few months. i've been literally no one knows not even that negotiators themselves about whether they will make it or not. they are making a big push so they can avoid a fight with congress back home in washington if they do not get a deal. that would be a fight getting a further extension. we will see. i will keep you posted. francine: i know you will. indira lakshmanan. back with us in london is capital investment director
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ashok shah. in terms of a run t1 -- iran, thank you for sticking around. even if they find an agreement they will flow to the market with oil because it will take six months of a gradual lifting of sanctions. ashok shah: it is not going to happen immediately but much more longer-term. the oil market will need to try and main road for the increased supply that will come if a deal is reached. more likely to be on the back of the opec itself getting a quarter up to increase. in a way, i think when you look at is the oil price, and the short-term, it doesn't have a big impact. in the medium-term, a big negative impact.
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francine: we have not talked about nigeria. we had elections and filings in a state where there is a lot of oil. couldn't they balance out? ashok shah: not really. nigeria is at of the lower level from all of the politics and uncertainty to so on. it remains at subdued levels for now. that chance in terms of canada production be increased going forward? they are starting at a low level. the chances are if you get a political resolution in nigeria and calm a longer-term situation were more capital investment is to be done and more security needs to be provided and more environmental controls need to be put in place. before it gradually picks up and longer-term, the supply is much more. another big negative for the medium-term on the oil price.
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francine: thank you for joining us. london capital investment director ashok shah. prada's profits hit by a slowing china. the disappointing results. ♪
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francine: welcome back to "the pulse." now let's get a check on your
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role dollar -- euro-dollar. cpi numbers. up a little bit. 1.0849. this is a two-week rally against the dollar. there are greece concerns and cute ease started by the ecb which put it in direct contrast with the fed;'s hike. a little bit of news from the spanish minister saying greek eurozone exit will not happen. overall he is confident that the european economy will go to the upside. and he sees the economy growing at 2% overall and greece at least a respect commitments but he doesn't see greece leaving the eurozone. that is the spanish prime minister. the impact of china's slowdown look no further than prada's latest products.
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they posted a 20% drop. let's bring in bloomberg intelligent. very key messages from prada and it has to do with china. reporter: if we look at asia their sales and they are down 3%. if we look at china in particular down 17% last year. big exposure to hong kong and chinese tourists are going elsewhere. francine: how crucial it is hong kong? it is the hub where luxury goods get bought. and the city state coming under a lot of pressure from protests area will there be believe? deborah: we are seeing relief. we can talk about -12% in the second half. we can look also at what -- said
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in hong kong they are seeing relief because of their consumers moving to lower-priced brands. it is doing very well for them. overall, overhand from the protests in october. there is a lots of inventory in store. francine: when we look at prada very disappointed but the share price did not move so much. deborah: it had to do with the growth. it is selective. it is buying back more and more retail. it is bit more holds on infrastructure and more management and infrastructure in bringing out -- and not to negate from the higher points but to extend. we saw the same about euro-dollar. and the same with tiffany's going forward. they said 25% of their sales in
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the u.s. and in the new york luxury and they saw it, down. -- come down. francine: we are watching. we are focusing on a lot of luxury. in there's also a rumor of -- looking to sell forte. deborah: we heard that riche would take a look at forte. and could amazon be interested question mark -- interested? it is the interest of the italian retail internet retailer doing well. 17% growth since the end of last year. it would be richemont and if it
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could work out. francine: deborah aitken thank you. we are back in 2. we will hear from ed miliband arriving at bloomberg shortly. ♪
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francine: welcome back to "the pulse." i am francine lacqua. elections in full focus in the u.k. as campaigns kickoff today. david cameron will be in front of parliament. ed miliband unveils his manifesto here in bloomberg headquarters. we are joined by my coanchor guy johnson. you are missed. guy: we are in the wrong chair. we will get over it. ed miliband will be here. he will be trying to will business. he has struggled with this on till now.
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does he actually understand business? you understand what business is all about. you kind of since he is never had the level of interaction with the commercials tied of this economy -- side of this economy to generate the understanding. and if you look at how they kicked off the campaign and talking about the company's ability to make profits within the nhs. francine: he has to appeal large populations and fatcats. how do you keep the business community insight? he is basically attacking the tories. guy: that is where he sees the opportunity. the problem is the idea of talking about the u.k. referendum is not a new. the business community is aware on this subject. why does the fact he will make the streets today change anything in the business community particularly at a time
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with the s&p question mark -- s&p -- snp? francine: the worst outlook would it be a scottish coalition. guy: it would not be a coalition. it is more likely to be a conference which is almost too formal. a vote i vote basis -- by vote basis which will be quite unstable but will give the snp quite a bit of leverage if they do as well as some people are expecting north of the border. you wonder if ed can form a government without them. when it comes to business community, a less than centrist view of how the economy works. they talk about austerity and how the business community needs to bear the burden or more of the burden. that is the difficulty. francine: ed miliband is showing
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here at bloomberg to deliver his first speech of the campaign. it is something to be excited about. he is trying his best to look. guy: he is but whether or not the message will be expensive or not to change anybody's mind is yet to be seen. if the message is strong what i thought about labour this week is not what i thought about labour last week. judging by the pre-road to this i am not sure. francine: guy johnson will be speaking to ed miliband later and all of the main political parties in the run-up to the general election on may 7. guy is back to talk about u.k. politics. that brings us to the twitter question. how are you trading the u.k. campaign? a time of the top stories. switzerland has agreed to buy a stake for 1.3 billion euros. the price of 10.25 per share is
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22 percent of the average price. the sales from the family is expected in the third quarter. the european -- sad compensation cost fell 20% last year. goldman sachs international said an average of over $537,000. they cut a portion of revenue it pays in the financial crisis as it seeks to boost returns. in german exchange operator to hold stake in a market developed by the stock exchange. bse will also take a hold in the new stock trading venue. africa's largest economy, nigeria host presidential elections this weekend and the
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official results are not announced. some are calling it rigged. our correspondent has been following all week. uche, what is the latest? uche: we are waiting for the results. they are saying it will be around 12:00 p.m. today so results are trickling in and we are waiting to see what the official results are and they took place on saturday and were extended for an extra day. it was generally peaceful. i went to a couple of polling stations are around the city and it seemed peaceful. we have tensions in the southeastern part of the country, in a key oil-producing state where the opposition has marchers today, alleging that
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saturday's ballots had been rigged. that is what is going on on the ground right now. francine: take -- tell us about the two main candidates. uche okoronkwo: is a very contentious election and people expecting it to be quite close friend president jonathan has been in office for five years. his party has yet to see a huge challenge like of they are seeing in this election with the progressives and that is led by general muhammadu buhari a former military dictator. he to power in 1983 after a military coup. this is fourth consecutive time running for president. both sides. when they will win -- feel strongly they will win this time. they are divided along religion
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and ethnic groups. goodluck jonathan is a christian and muhammadu buhari is a muslim. francine: they are facing economic problems. what does it mean? uche okoronkwo: boko haram rom is one the biggest issues and nigeria. -- is a one of the things issues and nigeria. that is what nigerians are looking for the leader in two -- is looking for the leader to take care of. human rights -- over 5000 people have been killed. we delayed our elections after security issues and the northeast as well. besides boko haram, falling oil prices, political uncertainty
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and the currency even. the next president has to deal with the fact that the africa's biggest oil producer, two thirds common from oil and the falling oil prices will have an impact and nigeria's currency has lost about 18% against the dollar. these are some the issues that nigeria's next president will have his hands full with. receiving uche okoronkwo -- francine: uche okoronkwo thank you. coming up, a longtime supporter of the labour party in one of their biggest parties. keep it right here. we are just getting started. ♪
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francine: welcome back to "the pulse." later today, labor leader ed miliband will be at bloomberg's headquarters setting got his party's pledges. let's talk to a major labour backer. in a bloomberg exclusive interview. john, great to have you. do you feel that ed miliband understands business? guest: the labour party really do. the speech, the very beginning of the campaign is to the business community about britain and shows how committed labour
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is to make sure relations between the labour party and business is really good. francine: a lot of people we speak to our skeptical about raising taxes and making an environment less friendly to startups and entrepreneurship. how does he square it? john mills: i am not sure that is the case at all. i think the conservative policy of trying to take 35 billion pounds out of public expenditure is going to be much more damaging to this is an to everybody else than the labour party policy of reducing the deficit more slowly. i think is very, very unfair that labour is antibusiness. francine: when you speak to ceo's they are afraid of it. from their perspective, the tories, whether unfair or not, but for ceo's.
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john: i am not sure they have done well. the quality is lower for people then a 2008. that was now seven years ago. that is a terrible record. francine: we are growing in the u.k. compared to the rest, we are doing much better. john: because everybody else is doing so bad. compared to the far east and pacific rim our record is incredibly bad. our average gdp in the countries in the east along the pacific is 30% since 2008 where our standard living is lower. that is an appalling results for francine: appalling compared to the rest of the world and we are not doing as badly. i am not the one saying it. the imf is. give me a sense of what ed miliband needs to do to change the perception, at the moment,
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ceo's, does he need to implement his policy today does he need to give more tax reductions or more tax proposals for the business community? john: what helps the business community is getting the economy to grow and that's what the labour party is committed to achieving. there will be trade-offs for francine: -- trade-offs. -- francine: nothing specific? john: no intention of changing the 20% and commitments given and the exchanges in the house of commons about insurance. it is a high tax policy government, i do not think it is fair at all. for his event you one the biggest labour backers a you supported in eu referendum -- and you supported and eu referendum. jenna bank the cup -- john: the
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company is split -- country is split on whether we should have another referendum. the majority think we should not. that is the policy of not having a referendum that does appeal to businesses in this country. smaller businesses take a rather different view. francine: what is the view of a referendum? do you think it will make use of it? john: if you have a referendum -- i think the country is very split on it. if you look at the polls, about half of the country once you step out of the european zone and other half in favor of it. the country is very split on it. francine: you are very pro-referendum. why are you still voting for labour and supporting labour if
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they do not want to put this to referendum? john: i am labour through and through and i want to see ed miliband as the prime minister. but, the balance across, i really am keen about having a labour government. francine: do you think there are a lot of labour supporters in support of a referendum? john: yes. francine: he is giving something to the this community? john: the problem is you cannot please everybody. there is a lot of people who would prefer not to have a referendum, especially bigger companies. i do not think that true of smaller companies. and as a britain of which i am cochair wants to have a referendum. you cannot please everybody. francine: what you want to hear
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from ed miliband today? john: i want to hear a positive speech about labour's relationship with the business. it is about business and relationship with the business community and i think that's a really good, positive step forward. firstly bank without giving -- francine: without giving -- john: taxes what not to go up a ed miliband first step is to make a speech to build relationships is very important. and he labour government has to get on well with the business community to be successful. i'm sure ed miliband knows this. francine: if i am a ceo, why would i vote for ed miliband? john: it may will tip the economy into a recession that's not good for anybody.
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francine: i still get business support because small businesses have [indiscernible] john: that's because we have a low corporation tax regime a very flexible labor market and it will continue. francine: what does one of the things thrown at ed miliband he does not have the charisma of head of state. do you meet irregularly question mark -- irregularly? -- regularly? john: i have. he has unfair press. when he was able to get on television so people could see him in the flesh and here now, the result was very positive. you see an enormous bounds in the polls. francine: initially the polls gave it two days cameron and then ed miliband -- to dave
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cameron and then ed miliband. why do you think that? john: it could be the initial favorable response came from westminster where the poll results over the whole country gave a different picture. i would not be surprised if that is what happens when we get the seventh of may. francine: wife -- why? because people like approachability? john: he came across as articulate" earned and how people -- and concerns and how people are linking -- thinking. that is the the perception people saw. francine: is there anything in his image he needs to change? john: to make sure labour's relationship with the business is to have the speech at
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bloomberg to launch the election. francine: a lot of people talk about the referendum you support. he will say, vote for me. it will be uncertainty if you vote for the referendum. it seems like a lot of of what the tories are doing wrong. is that fair? john: elements are fair. britain has lukewarm support. i think we need to have a referendum to sort out if we will stay in the european union or if we'll find ourselves somewhere else in a more independent direction. i think sooner or later it will have to be taken by the british people. when it is taken kevin -- taking, it will disappear. i am not sure that is the case. it depends on what we can renegotiate. i do have a good chance are
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renegotiating our membership with which we are not very happy with. i think the majority of the british people will want to stay in. francine: john, thank you for joining us. john mills. perfect timing. they were just watching on tv. john mills area stay with us, the labor leader will be visiting bloomberg later to unveil his manifesto. his first interview of the day following at 12:30 p.m. and we will be speaking members of all of the main political parties in the run-up to the general election on may the seventh. coming up -- deadline for greece for its proposal. what could happen if the country leaves the euro? we will take a closer look after the break. ♪
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francine: welcome back. in france, both former presidents sarkozy and le pen made gains. sarkozy's party took twice as many departments as hollande. the nation's growth rate has fallen too far and policy makers need to respond. it underscores further monetary easing and the second largest economy. magnitude 7.5 earthquake off the
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coast of popeye new guinea -- poppa new guinea. and the solomon islands. after 70 years of struggling to stay in the eurozone does seven years of struggling to stay in the eurozone, greece is fallen short. they could fall out. reporter: the next steps stand of the euro to catastrophic divorce. going against his party, greek prime minister tsipras will have to accept austerity in exchange for a long. greece has cash, how long will the government last? no compromise bailouts will stall and emergency assistance is rationed. capital controls. they could force tsipras to backtrack. the majority agreed to want to stay in the euro.
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it could mean the start of a new coalition involving pro-european partners or the populace may respond badly and capital controls force the government to print a new currency. and banks and companies to the fault in the country is left and financial limbo. greece will leave the euro in a messy default. banks and the government collapse. the new depression forces europe back into recession. francine: we were out plenty more greece gulf. for those listening on the radio, first word is next. for our viewers, a second hour of "the pulse." we are all over the u.k. elections. ed miliband will be visiting bloomberg with his manifesto. follow that that is 12:30 p.m. u.k. time. the 20 question -- how are you
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trading -- the twitter question -- how are you trading the u.k. election? i will see you in a couple of minutes. ♪
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francine: battle for number 10. the u.k. election campaign kicks off. we will hear from ed miliband right here. deadlock from the deadline. iranian and western diplomats. greece's read a line continue with the creditors for prime minister tsipras said he will not agree to recessionary measures. ♪ francine: good morning to our viewers in europe a good evening
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to those in asia. i am francine lacqua and this is "the pulse." we are getting breaking news. we are seeing your role area economic confidence rise to 3.9% and the estimate was 1.03%. we had some inflation figures from germany. it is creeping up a bit. we have a very packed show. major topics we are covering the iranian negotiations in switzerland. we will have more. and greece, the country is negotiating with creditors for bailout funds and the official launch of the u.k. election campaign. labor leader ed miliband will be visiting to unveil his manifesto for british businesses. we will give you his first interview. more of the u.k. elections and we are joined by guy johnson for
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a look ahead. i am missing you in the studio but you are focusing. guy: we are getting ready and we are looking for to hosting ed miliband as he unveiled his manifesto for british business. the central way he is going to try and meet with the business community is saying, you know what? we would not bring you years of chaos. the reason why is that we are not going to have a referendum on eu membership and as a result of which, you're better off supporting us. and the allies is exactly, david cameron will be saying he is going to say, the labour party is going to bring economic chaos. the labour party coming here in ed miliband coming here. once he performs some kind of bond which you struggled to do the us far as a way he will do this is by the eu. that is what he will use. francine: how concerned is
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british about the british snp? guy: extremely fearful. we do not understand yet how this going to happen. the expectation is the party will win a huge a number of seats and that is the expectation and was in the polling is saying. we will not know that the because the votes have not been counted. the snp is confident. salmon is talking and trying to may be throw a little bit of concern amongst the business community and the prospects of people of the u.k. business is deeply concerned about this. we just do not know how does add to this stage and we do not know how the labour party would react. business is concerned. the problem is in the run-up, people say one thing and was the reality of government, they may
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say another. francine: that's often the case. thank you. guy johnson will be doing a great interview with ed miliband at 12:30 and that is his first interview of the day. he will on sell his manifold debt manifesto for british business. we will be speaking to members of all of the u.k. main political parties and the run-up to the general election. that brings us to the twitter question -- how are you trading the u.k. election? some of you answering that you are not working and others focusing on the pound. tweet us. the discussion of the u.k. election, the campaign get underway. we are joined by christian great having the program. a lot of the focus, labour chose to launch their first campaign. is the bow to not only on equality but business?
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christian: that is where labour is lacking the most, confidence that people can have and convincing people that they have something to offer to business. that you question and getting that message out especially where the eu relationship may play the biggest role is quite a smart move. francine: do you think that ed miliband understands business? people are still looking at the tories? they need to come up with a concrete plan and how they alleviate business concerns. christian schulz: absolutely and going into the details of what labour is planning, many reasons to scratch your head and are they really understand what businesses need and to really understand less red tape then more and businesses want more tax cuts and need to be more competitive on a european and
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international scale? that is where he has a lot of convincing to do. first the bank christian christian schulz stays with us that francine: christian schulz stays with us. alexis tsipras will update creditors today. we are joined by hans nichols. let's kick off with eu. some words and he says the government must respect commitment but he doesn't see a greek exit. hans bank -- hans: his comments are a little contradictory. the current government has said they will not do it and they were elected with the mandate not to implement some of the measures. that is what is expected here in germany and berlin and brussels. part of the initial bailout agreement and they have some flexibility namely on the surplus.
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the proposal they submitted was according to the german press, just done electronically. that tabloid is having a lot of fun with the proposals were shown on ipad and e-mailed on smartphones. an official reform list, we do not have yet. later this evening, mr. tsipras will address congress and it will be about the property taxes. mr. tsipras campaigned against that. nothing specific and no pledges to make labor reform or pension refunds. when we got to the timeline of what is due when today, march 30, the day for submitting reform. later this week, and ecb meeting and they will more than likely increase liquidity. the big date is april 9, forge or 58 million euros are due to the imf -- 458 million euros are
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due to the imf. as a the treasury bill refinancing. the question is -- will the ecb allow groupings to refinance every purchase some of that debt? it is not credit worthy. it is credit worthy technically but we saw the downgrade from fitch "substantial risks.” we are waiting to hear from brussels and specifics for mr. tsipras. francine? francine: let's cross to marcu what wills. tsipras -- let's cross to mar cus. what will tsipras say? marcus bensasson: the credit has held the feet to the fire.
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but that alone is coming under pressure domestically. and in this is what he has to address today in the speech to really get ahead of developments lyrically. -- politically. he is going to have major objectives. one is the death of lawmakers and own party who are the left wing of the party starting to make particularly strong arguments over the weekend. some comments from the energy minister who is their leader. tsipras will have to get them to rally behind the party. he is going to want to reach out to build consensus among centrist parties. that could prove important in the months ahea as youd see a realignment of his party. the big question we want to see
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is to what extent is he willing to take some of the hardliners in the party? he hasn't generally been willing to do so so far but to the government is coming under a lot of pressure. francine: it is coming under more and more pressure. marcus bensasson in athens hans nichols in berlin. we are back with christian schulz. we are talking about the u.k. elections for you are you more worried about greece are the u.k.? christian schulz: definitely greece. the fact the u.k. doesn't really need a big shakeup like the greek economy or italian economy do. what the u.k. needs its continue on the path at the moment at any kind of government coalition government makes it more likely rather than a clear victory for one or the other side. francine: what are you worried more about in greece?
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likely they will be up to pay the imf but a chance they may not be able to give back 450 million pounds. where do you stand? what exactly happens? christian schulz: they may run out of money or not is technicalities and what i am worried about is the longer run even if they say in the euro need to cut spending and do austerity and structural reforms. and the greeks are saying we do not want to do neither. the compromises do more structural reforms and less austerity. it looks like we get the other way around, more austerity. to reform the tax rate but less structural reform. that would be the worst case for both. francine: i do not understand. they are proposing tax increases but sievers is saying he will not do anything recessionary. -- tsipras is saying he would
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not do anything recessionary. last to do more -- the eu or ecb or greece? christian schulz: i do not really care who gives and more or not as long as the compromise is that greece does what it takes to get to the economy going and that is more flexibility in the labor market and long-term fiscal reform. what we are getting now is more short-term austerity to chase a primary surplus that is probably gone already in less structural reform of the reforms we have had. higher minimum wage, more power to the union and that is not will greece it needs. francine: will be back with christian schulz. we'll talk about that the fed. a look of what else is on our radar. toss between iranian and western
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negotiations in switzerland. the two sides have 48 hours before the deadline before the nuclear program expires. the limits imposed on the nuclear program. vote counting underway in nigeria's presidential election. polling was extended to a second day after delays and a equipment malfunction. tensions rose in an oil-producing region with opposition party defeated in early results. u.k. general election campaign kicks off today. prime and street david cameron will visit buckingham palace. it is the start of the most uncertain election for generation. -- prime minister david cameron will visit talking cam palace. -- will visit buckingham palace. ed miliband will be here and will on phil's manifesto -- and will unveil his manifesto and
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his first and only speech today at 12:30 p.m. that brings us to our twitter question -- how are you trading the u.k. election? tweet us. we are back shortly. ♪
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francine: welcome to "the pulse." foreign ministers from world
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powers and iran to reach a framework deal for the nuclear program before tuesday night's data line. we are joined on the phone i in deirdre. both sides saying they need to make tough choices. -- we're joined on the phone by indira. indira: on the details, the small picture has not worked out. and doing renditions of what is going on with talks in iran and the world powers at the exact same moment that he run stand the other side has to make hard choices -- iran and the other side have to make hard choices. since the last time we spoke the deputy foreign minister said iran will not give up its stockpile which was seen as backsliding because that is something we had been decided
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and the state department has said actually that had not been yet decided. and it needs to be done. clearly, not just a matter of diving to the -- dotting the i's and crossing the t's. francine: what is the chance of the meeting the deadline? indira lakshmanan: it is clear both sides want to make of the deadline especially the united states but cause of the pressure in washington and that congress is skeptical and ready to slap on more sanctions on iran or a bill to make a harder for the president to enforce any deal. if they cannot get the conditions they want, the u.s. has made it clear they are ready to walk away. we will have to wait and see if they can doubt out something in the last minute or keep negotiating going.
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it will be a nail biter here for us tomorrow night. francine: thank you so much. indira lakshmanan. we will have plenty more to route day. we are back with christian schulz. we talked a little bit about greece and the u.k. election. of course, all of this underpinned. if we have the sanctions on iran listed, -- lifted, they have 75 barrel of oil, is it a chance they flooded the market or it will be gradual? uche okoronkwo -- christian schulz: i think it will be gradual. they will phase of themselves. what it will do is it will keep oil prices lower for longer which would be great news because it would not give the upswing at the moment which is
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in part due to cheap oil more sustainable. if the oil price went up quickly again, that could derail the massive recovery. francine: the trading is between $50 and $60, do you see holding longer or could we have $40 and $50? christian schulz: that is the big unknown. with economy is picking up speed with risk of not materializing the oil price has a chance of gradually going up and beyond the $60 level and maybe by $70 is not unreal. the upswing of the risk could materialize. francine: how much does it benefit? does it benefit significantly? the prime minister saying i do not want to recessionary measures. he is not talking about
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austerity but encapsulated everything. he is really benefiting from cheap oil prices per if we do not have structural reform, it doesn't really make a difference, right? christian schulz: it would only work in the longer term. the greece economy benefits from cheaper oil and weaker euro and could benefit so much more if it were to benefit from cheap or very low interest rate. like portugal which is politically stable or spain do and that is where the big -- the damage by dragging his feet and not getting a deal done. and greek banks were safe again and ready to land, that is what would help the economy. cheap oil do help them to some degree. francine: what is fair value for euro-dollar? we have not touched parity. you hear from a lot analysts
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that say even if we have parity it would be great for the euro economy but not sustainable and will see too much volatility. christian schulz: the long-term average of the euro against the dollar is the benchmark nobody really knows where the euro should be. 1.20 1.22 is probably fair. probably undervalued. we see a trade surplus. the biggest and the world and that cannot go on forever if they euro economy grows stronger and starts kicking in. i think the euro at the moment is undervalued and long run tend to see against the dollar. francine: should we touched parity or not? christian schulz: i cannot the ruling out. where out with positive economic data. it doesn't look like we will get there. i cannot rule it out.
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data going the other way. it is within reach. francine: christian, thank you for that. christian schulz. coming up the nigerian presidential elections pretty keep it right here. we are "the pulse." ♪
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francine: welcome to "the pulse."
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let's check in on the markets. equities are doing pretty well today. look at the stoxx 600 gaining 1%. in that, it means they are being pushed to their biggest rally since 2009. a letter the optimism about the central bank and qe. the ecb will have a check on the pound very shortly. that is our twitter question of the day. focusing on the u.k. election. and the twitter question of the day -- france of all checkout counter dollar. a lot of you have to -- first of all, check out pound-dollar. pound-dollar. a lot of things that some of you have been tweeting to us. it is that 148.50. ed miliband will be at bloomberg
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shortly. he will unveil his manifesto. that is at 12:30 p.m. keep your right here. it will be interesting. we wants to know if labour understands business. that will be the main question of the day. we will be back in 2. ♪
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francine: welcome back to "the pulse." i'm francine lacqua. switzerland doagreed to buy -- the price is about 22% on the average share price. the european arm of goldman sachs said its compensation
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costs fell 20% last year. goldman international paid its employees -- goldman has cut the portion of revenue it pays employees since the financial crisis. the german exchange operator -- new indian security markets being developed. they will invest as much as 5% in the planned commodity exchange. now, let's check in on the markets. manus: thank you. these equity markets are heading for the best quarter since 2009. equity markets are rising today. you have janet yellen saying get it -- get ready for a rate
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raise. it will be unlike any other rate hike. rates can rise. that is similar to the message from france. equity markets are rising. the market is already reasonably long. oil is going to become a much more developed story over the next 24 hours. iran has about 30 million barrels of oil stored offshore. as the next 24 hours rise in terms of the political climate it is going to become much more an important issue in the overall trend for oil.
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where are we going with oil? the format. if they agree on the format for an agreement between now and june, what with that due to the price of oil? -- what would that due to the price of oil quick what would that do to the price of oil? let's look at the greek bond market. this is most interesting. insuring greek debt against default over the next five years. let's take it as a benchmark. these are five year government bonds. as you go further out, it begins to change. 10 year government bonds yielding more than five year government bonds.
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the market say there is a 72% of greece not paying their debt in the next five years. i leave you with a quick look at the euro-dollar trade. we had a conversation with morgan stanley. they said it was not the best scenario to have greek stay. euro-dollar is on the way down. back to you. guy: let's shift gears -- francine: let's shift gears. the prime minister david cameron set the tone of his party's campaign. he spoke to activists and manchester. prime minister cameron: frankly
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i don't think ed miliband has it. some people might say, don't make this personal. when it comes to who was prime minister, the personal is national. the guy who forgot to mention the deficit could be the one in charge of our whole economy. the man who was too weak to stand up to the trade unions at home, could be the one facing down our enemies at home. the leaders who think leadership is climbing aboard the bandwagon could be the one making the make or break calls in the middle of the night. francine: our westminster reporter is here. >> the main battlegrounds have tended to be the economy and the nhs. labour will wreck the economy
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when they come to power, is what cameron is saying. the tone got a lot more personal. he spoke about ed miliband's hopeless, sneering socialists. he talked about labour wrecking five years of work in five months. for labour they are accusing them of making plans that would reduce the health budget. more importantly, europe has come into focus for them. they have set their tone as a pro-business party. that is not labor's natural ground. they have rejected the idea of a referendum. francine: ed miliband shows up of bloomberg and gives his first speech of the election.
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do we know what he is going to say? >> yes, we have a good idea. business will be his main focus. his relationship with business has been checkered at best. he has come under a lot of attacks about bringing labor back to the 1970's. the referendum call is causing a lot of uncertainty. at the same time, there are other aspects coming out. their commitment is different than the tory commitment. there was a hint of more regulation for investors. the plans are quite sketchy. businesses may take some umbrage
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at the details. francine: one of the frequent questions we look at is does ed miliband understand business? businesses are worried because of everything we have been hearing so far. >> absolutely. one of the key points was his promise to cap energy prices. this is a party that has campaigned on taxing bonuses taxing banks, trying to make government policies fair or. these are messages that tend to scare business. the other points business is slightly concerned about is that labor is unlikely to get a majority even if they do win the election quest election. ed miliband has rejected the
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idea of a coalition. if the s&p is the third biggest party in parliament they will be forced to come to some kind of a deal. that is what investors have been saying and businesses have been saying would be the worst possible outcome. francine: thank you for joining us. don't miss our coverage later today. ed miliband will set out his agenda to british business later this morning. after midday, we will speak to the labor leader in an exclusive interview. still to come, we get a view on leg loss -- lagos.
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francine: welcome back to "the pulse." africa's largest economy and biggest oil producer, nigeria, held elections this weekend. the main opposition party is calling the election rigged. what is the latest? >> all eyes are on the electoral commission right now. we are waiting for them to collate the results before we can have the official numbers. they had said they would begin at 12:00 p.m. today.
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we are not seeing anything conclusive just yet. it is very contentious this time around. there have been some tensions in the southeastern part of the country. a key oil-producing state is alleging that the saturday ballot had been rigged. the opposition has asked for an annulment in that state. hundreds of female protesters took to the street to march this morning. we are hearing that security forces dispersed them with tear gas. the situation has remained relatively peaceful across nigeria, except in the southeast. the biggest concern is going -- is what is going to happen when the results are announced. francine: tell us more about the candidates. >> the two main candidates are pregnant -- president jonathan good luck -- goodluck jonathan
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and this time they are facing a real challenge with the all progressive congress the main opposition. led by a 72-year-old former military dictator. he took power in 1983 after a military coup. this is his fourth consecutive time running for president. those are our two main contenders. nigeria is somehow divided on religious and ethnic lines. the two who represent that divide jonathan is from the south. the opposition is a muslim from the north. francine: this is a very challenging election. it comes at a challenging time.
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as for the insurgency led by boko haram, how did these issues affect the election? >> the next president will have his hands full with a number of issues. top on the list is boko haram. they have led a bloody insurgency in the northeastern part of the country. they currently control some areas. nigeria posco government has paired with cameroon, need share, and chad to put some pressure on boko haram. nigerians are looking to the next leader to solve this security issue. the other two issues on the list are oil oil prices have fallen to about 50% what they previously were and being africa's biggest oil producer it is having a heavy impact on
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nigeria's economy. also, the nigerian currency has lost about 18% against the dollar in the past couple of months. these are the top issues facing the next president. francine: for more on nigeria we are joined by our senior west africa analyst. in terms of nigeria, you have been looking at the various implications of the results. the picture is not rosy either way. >> when you look at how close the election is, we are anticipating some sort of postelection crisis. past elections in nigeria have genuinely -- generally been turbulent. there may be unrest in the event of the election. francine: what do you mean by crisis? escalated violence? >> first of all, there is likely
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to be political confrontation. the losing party will challenge the results announced by the election commission. that trickles down to the grassroots. in the event that jonathan is declared winner we could see widespread violence in the north of the country. that could be on a slightly larger level than the last time around. if the opposition wins, there could be violence in the niger delta region. military operations against boko haram have scored numerous successes in terms of reducing territorial control in recent weeks. nevertheless, it is something that certainly played into the
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balance between the two parties is shaped up. in the event of a jonathan victory, we could see boko haram exploit widespread -- in the event of an opposition when, boko haram will remain a feature that the government has to address. francine: who is best for the country? >> that is difficult to answer. both presidential candidates bring different implications. i don't think in terms of policy or ideology, there is an enormous difference between the parties. it is more about the reaction. regardless of who wins nigeria faces great challenges political and economic. when the new government comes into office, it has a lot to address. francine: also cracking down on corruption. >> that will be a major issue as
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well. there is growing frustration among the electorate expectations about progress in development and frustrations about corruption. that will be something that businesses will also need to look at. francine: you have been saying that it has huge implications for businesses. is there a clear favorable outcome for oil majors? >> for the oil majors, they are geographically concentrated in the niger delta. they will be looking at stability in the niger delta and the prospect for the passage of the bill for trading. both of those have stalled major investments in the offshore investment in nigeria.
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there could be blowback within the niger delta region if there is an opposition victory. francine: what does it mean for oil output in general? a lot of it will depend on tensions also from boko haram. so far, they have managed to keep it pretty stable. >> in terms of the potential for coordinated regional disruption to oil production, i think that scenario is relatively low in this context. there will be concerns about the potential for an uptick in militancy. militant capabilities are likely to remain more localized. they will not hit the major export terminals and platforms. yes, there are risks that will
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he to be monitored and adapted to but the potential for a major drop in production is relatively low. francine: it is clear you are expecting some sort of crisis when the winner is announced. what do you make of the last couple of days? violence has been concentrated in certain states, but overall it has been a little bit more stable than forecast. >> we anticipated the election broadly as it has played out. there were serious concerns as to whether the election would go ahead. there were some instances of violence. this is quite normal. when you look at past elections in nigeria, they are generally turbulent. broadly speaking and if you look at what the international observers are saying, the conduct at the polls was credible and there are concerns about collation of results.
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that is where there will be most opportunity to manipulate the outcome and somewhere where tensions are currently focused on. generally, the conduct at the polls was good by nigerian standards. francine: coming up, we get the latest on iran nuclear talks. the deadline. ♪
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francine: welcome back to "the
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pulse." one of our main stories -- world powers are meeting in switzerland to reach a framework deal on iran's nuclear program. the two sides are trying to meet tuesday nights deadline -- tuesday night's deadline. now, it goes down to basically both sides trying to decide on what tough choices they can make. >> that's right. things are changing by the hour as we speak. we just heard from the russian foreign minister, sergei lau from, that he is going to leave talks today. he is not planning to come back tomorrow unless he feels there are prospects for a deal. everyone is turning up the heat. we are down to the last hours. i think i mentioned before that
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there is quibbling over what concessions have been made or not made by each side. we are going to be watching. the percentage chances of a deal seems to change by the hour. guy: is it fair to say -- >> it is something that u.s. wants. iran wants to be taken out from under the sanctions. we will see if they will be able to get the deal on the terms they want. francine: thank you so much for joining us. we will have much more throughout the day. that is it for "the pulse." coming up, tom keene takes over with "surveillance." for those on the other side of the atlantic, and miliband will be speaking at bloomberg this morning. you were looking at live
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pictures of where he will make his address in just a few moments. then we will speak to ed miliband in an exclusive interview. you are also looking at live pictures of 10 downing street. ♪
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tom: janet yellen insists the fed will not be measured. it is a week of reckoning for greece. tsipras is back in athens to explain to his parliament. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." it is monday, march 30. joining me, brendan greeley. olivia sterns is off today. we need to get to our top headlines. brendan: time is running out on the go shoot and's nuclear program. -- time is running out on iran's nuclear program. the white house spokesman said that the next move is up to iran. >> we have been negotiating for more than one year. it is time for the iranians to come to the international community about whether or not they're able to make a serious c


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