tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg May 14, 2015 2:00pm-3:01pm EDT
gathering in manhattan. the u.s. senate is moments away from a key vote on trade legislation which would give president obama fast-track authority. we will bring you the headlines as they crush. scarlet: tired of reality television? you are not alone. amazon is giving the cold shoulder to viacom. mark: good afternoon from bloomberg world headquarters in new york. scarlet: let's get you straight to the financial markets. as julie hyman was telling us, s&p 500 currently at 2118 but just shy of its intraday high. have been a resistance
level, so we can see if we can get past 2120. the dollar weakening to a four-month low. if you look at treasuries, we are seeing a comeback. inflection point, it is this a policy in the selloff, or how we turn the corner? mark: a tough week for bonds with lisa abramowicz telling us about that $400 million route. scarlet: blame europe. mark: now a look at the top stories this hour. the death toll in the amtrak crash is now eight with the discovery of another body inside of a mangled railcar today. meantime, the amtrak ceo expects to have some service restored by monday. officials believe they have now accounted for all 243 passengers and crew members believed to have been on board. investigators want to talk to the engineer at the throttle.
they say it was going 106 miles for our before it derailed in philadelphia, more than double the speed limit. the engineers lawyer says that he remembers trying to reduce speed before being knocked out by the crash. his clientalso says was not on his cell phone or using drugs or alcohol. the national transportation safety board says the fatal crash point out the need for what is called positive train control, and automatic braking system installed on the tracks. >> we have called for positive train control for many years. it is on our most wanted list. congress has mandated be installed by the end of this year. we are very keen on positive train control. based on what we know right now, we feel, had such a system been installed in the section of track, this accident would not have occurred. mark: the automatic braking technology has already been
installed in most of the rail lines between washington and boston. scarlet: president obama and leaders from six persian gulf nations are leading -- meeting this hour and iran is on the agenda. the summit is taking place at camp david. the party is try to work a disagreement with iran over its nuclear program. thatare seeking reasserts u.s. overtures to the iranians will not leave their own security at risk. saudi arabia saudi arabian king solomon is not there but other members of the royal family are not there. the royal family insists that is absence is not a snob. senate leaders agreed on a compromise to legislation that would give the president the ability to fast-track approval of the trade agreement. the senate today is voting on two related bills that democrats want and then lawmakers will vote on the trade bill. ron wyden says it is a smart move. >> taken together, the bill
forms a package of trade policy that is going to help our country create more high skilled, high wage jobs, in my state, and across the land. democrats say the deal is bad for american workers and will cost jobs and depress wages. mark: a new report shows inflation is under control. inflation at the wholesale level fell last month. the producer price index fell .4% in april due to lower energy and food prices. other reports underscore re-strengthen the labor market. fewer americans than expected filed first-time claims for unemployment benefits. the average of those claims reached a 15-year low. there is a senate floor fight ahead over government phone surveillance. voted overwhelmingly to limit bulk collection of americans calling records. many senators feel the same way but majority leader mitch mcconnell techie is not one of them. secret security program
was unveiled by edward snowden. scarlet: the field for the democratic nomination could be expanding. martin o'malley says he will announce the 30th whether he is in or out. the former maryland governor would be the third democrat in the field joining hillary clinton and vermont senator bernie sanders. it is getting cheaper to live in moscow. rents from the most exclusive neighborhoods have fallen as much as 40%. the reason, european and u.s. executives are leaving town. they are cutting back due to the fall in oil prices as well as western sanctions in russia for their involvement in the ukraine. a terrifying crash at the indianapolis speedway but the driver walked away unhurt. he hit a wall at the film the brickyard -- famed brickyard. he was practicing for the indy 500, which is raised. he is a three-time winner, but
again, fortunately, he walked away unhurt. those are some of the top stories we are following this hour. coming up next, it may be one sign of a stronger economy. more young adults skipping college and going straight to the workforce. the road butgs on with no drivers. forget the driverless car. we will show you the semi trucks that steer itself. scarlet: maybe america is getting tired of reality tv. amazon's tv service is dropping several of icon's reality -- viacom's reality shows. mark: we are seeing the beginnings of a recovery over the past months. stephanie ruhle is in manhattan for a gathering of some of the top commodity investors in the world. she is with the head of commodities. stephanie: we have to start with your performance.
your 12-month performance, up 48.2%. what is in your special sauce? fair to say we had been in a friendly environment to trend followers and that is due to a lot of as a price trends across where we trade. this helped to encourage our machines. stephanie: you are all technology-based. i don't attribute the performance to the fact that we are driven by technologies as opposed to humans, but i think it is the case that the way in which we invest, the systematic approach we take, has been productive in the market environment. youhanie: given how will are doing, are you taking us further to not even needing a human element? >> know, and i don't think that
ever happens really. time,ill happen over inexorably, machine will play a larger part in the investment process, the same thing that we have seen in virtually every other industry. we trust machines to perform medical procedures, drive cars, why not trust them to move money around? why is thethen branding around this type of trading so bad, even if it does not affect your asset class, investors and outsiders will say, remember the flash crash, can you trust machines? say, people are not afraid when there is a laser beam shooting across your eye. we do, of what medium-term trend following, gets conflated with high-frequency trading, which is a different space than the one we inhabit. so there is a bit of confusion about that. the other natural human psychological feature is what is called an algorithm or version. people tend to forget humans when they make mistakes but not
humans -- machines. you think about one of the positives, there is obviously no emotion in a computer's trading decisions. madedruckenmiller said he mistakes because he got emotional. is that the edge? >> one of our most fundamental edges and is the inherent discipline of letting a machine do its work. it would not be fair to say that there is no human involvement because a humid has to write the lines of code and they have to turn the machine on to let it do its job, but once that system is running, the ability to step completely disciplined in the investment process, i think is one of our edges. of trend: in terms following, one would want to think that you would want to be a predictor. do you care if boone pickens says that oil is going to $100 or citibank says it will go to $20, that means nothing to you? me if ians a lot to
have an oil position, but as to my day-to-day running of the book, we are designed not to worry about that. if i were to be concerned about some nights -- about the headlines, my response would be, i would write a model to read headlines and then interpret those in a systematic way. stephanie: how does that work? >> that is actually an active space of research, text or sing in big data analysis based on text. stephanie: so you could have parts looking for the words oil, boone pickens, bull. >> if we chose to cut three-putted loose that way, they would. stephanie: what is the biggest risk to your business right now? >> the biggest risk in some sense is what i have not thought of, right? throughlook at 2011 2013, correlation tended to be high and asset classes all moved
together. that is an inherently unhealthy thing for us. were we to return to a post crisis environment like that, probably less help pull. broadly speaking, we run an extremely diversified port olio, we are careful about risk management, so we do not get too stressed out about that. all doie: do cta's basically the same thing even though you are running your own code? everyone was013, going in the same direction. >> hopefully we have demonstrated with our investors. if you look at the dispersion of returns over the last several years, they broadly move in the same direction, but in any given year, some will do better and someone do worse. stephanie: lucky for you it has been better. mark crumpton, that to you. mark: thank you both. scarlet: still ahead, college
we are above the record close level. if we close at this level, it will be a record. however, the intraday record is over here, 2125.92. nevertheless, interesting that we have three days of declined being wiped out and then some by the rally we are seeing today with all three major averages up at least 1%, right now rising to the highs of the session. if you look at what is leading the gains, it is technology. it is a broad-based rally but technology is doing the best. take a look at the big cap tech stocks doing well. apple on the rise, microsoft, facebook. obviously, all of these are heavily weighted. the fact that they are rising is how the matters. -- helping matters. i want to look at another tech stock that we got news on. computer sciences. a report that the company may plan to split itself into that --will and that deal could
itself into have that deal could be announced soon. to mention the strain situation with a bond today. the company calling itself ptg, came out in a filing today and said it was acquiring avon for $18 a share but it looks to be a hoax. shares on holding onto all the gains but some of them. scarlet: i can't wait to see what happened with that investigation. it will inevitably happen. interesting how something was reported and then it did not pan out. thank you so much. mark: let's get to our top stories this hour. were down asl's much as 12% this morning after reporting quarterly sales that missed estimates. sales picked up in march and april after a week february.
before today, the stock was up 22% for the year. right now, shares are down almost 12%. canadian airplane maker bombard ea is cutting nearly 800 jobs due to shrinking demand. the company is slowing production of its biggest business jet. singer sarah brightman will not be visiting the international space station anytime soon. she was planning to blast off in a russian rocket in september but adventures, the company helping her prepare for the journey, says that the mission is on hold for personal family reasons. she was working with composer andrew lloyd webber, her husband, to create a song that she would sing in space. those are your top stories this hour. education is supposed to be the path to career success, but maybe not so much
for millenial's. college enrollment is down almost 2% from the same time a year ago. if you look at those bars on the far left, it shows for-profit institutions and two-year community colleges are hardest hit. the steepest drop was among students who were at least 24 years old. this is according to the national student clearinghouse research center, a nonprofit group. mark: this reopens the debate on is called for everyone? theave heard stories from president and mrs. obama, from that theyrco rubio, could not pay off their student loans until they were in their 40's. so it's a question of you want the education, when will you be settled with student debt throughout your 30's and 40's, and if you cannot get a job that is commensurate with your skill set or education, how will you pay back the loan? of itt: that is one part
and some are asking whether the economy has gotten better where you can take a short-term reward and not worry about the long-term in the spin of a college education. president has also made that the centerpiece of his educational thrust saying that in order for the u.s. to be more competitive on the world stage, our students will have to go to college. president, the proposed making community college entirely free. so there is that aspect as well. scarlet: as a mother of two, i am considering sending them abroad, maybe to the u.k., where it is cheaper. i have a child as well. these are things to think about. this is a great story on bloomberg.com. scarlet: i think about it day and night. our education reporter has some great things on the terminal that you want to look up as well. coming up, forget driverless
scarlet: we talk a lot about driverless cars but obstacles could hold them back for years to come. meantime, one of the person driverless semi trucks is driving legally on the highways of nevada. sam grobart to vegas for a test drive. people have been talking about the driverless car for a while now. almost every week it seemed to herald a new record or test drive all with the fiddler caveat that such technology is still a ways away. but the first self driving vehicles on the road may not be the one taking you to work. they will likely come from an industry where safety concerns and environmental issues demand a better solution than a human
constantly behind the wheel. the first self driving car will not be a car at all. it will be a truck. this is the freightliner inspiration, a prototype truck that is legally roaming the highways of nevada. >> ready to go. as soon as highway pilot is available, we will get an indication. it is activated once this button is pressed. notice i'm not doing anything, i peter off the pedals. i can look at you and steer. we are in autonomous mode. inspiration uses a combination of gps, radar, and video cameras to achieve what is called level three autonomy. which means it can drive itself when the conditions are right but a driver needs to be ready to take over control in around 20 seconds, if needed. >> that means it is requesting me to take control.
>> if you don't, it will slow itself down and will apply the brakes. a level three system like freightliner's means good sense for a truck. cruising along in this stretch of freeway, let the computer takeover. but once you pull into the city and have to negotiate the traffic cop, a human is better at the controls. in a given year, more than 3 million trucks carry 9.2 billion tons of cargo into the u.s. get drowsyters never and distracted and can shoulder some of that burden, so human drivers will be more rested and alert when they need to drive. >> fuel efficiency impact, safety, me it's. all of those things are benefits to moving freight across the country. truck is a prototype of the technology inside is actually pretty mature.
what needs development are not new sensors or microprocessors not laws and regulations that will govern how these machines will exist in the world. >> we want to have the conversations with the federal and state governments. that is what we see as the next step in order to bring autonomous driving to the roads. it is interesting, when i see sam grobart, i sit up and pay attention. he gets some fascinating stories. as you were telling me, it will take a while for people to wrap their heads around it. scarlet: we cannot accept it even though we have planes on autopilot all the time. wheng takeoff and landing the need to, but otherwise it is pretty much autopilot. mark: navigating the streets would be difficult. if you are in new york city during rush hour, you probably want someone whose hands are on the wheel and the foot of the pedal. when i saw that, i
thought, is a truck drivers juggling to be obsolete? the most common job in every state is a truck driver, so does that mean that the most common job is going to go away with the advent of these trucks? sounds eerily like banks and teller's away because of atm machines. a good story. i'm out. scarlet: we will see you tomorrow. in the meantime, goodbye reality tv. dropsviacom -- amazon drops viacom's programs. ♪
the death toll in the amtrak train crash is now at eight with the discovery of yet another body inside a mangled railcar earlier today. amtech's ceo says the company expects to have service restored by monday. -- amtrak's ceo. investigators want to talk to the engineer at the throttle. he was going one earned six miles per hour before derailed in philadelphia. more than double the speed limit. -- 106 miles per hour. his client was not on his cell phone or using drugs or alcohol. the ntsb says the fatal crash -- an automatic braking system installed on the tracks. >> we have called for positive train control for many years. it's on our most wanted list for congress has mandated that it be installed by the end of this year.
positivery keen on train control. based on what we know right now, we feel had such a system been installed in this section of track, this accident would not have occurred. braking the automatic technology has already been installed on most of the rail line between washington and boston. warns thee government u.s. after a chase in the south china sea. china's navy will closely guarded its territory. this warning comes after u.s. ship sails close to islands claimed by china. president obama and leaders from six persian gulf nations are meeting at this hour with iran on the agenda. the summit is taking place at camp david. are trunked workout disagreements caused by u.s. negotiations with iran over its nuclear program. -- trying to work out disagreements. those are your cap headlines.
we have breaking news -- president obama's trade initiative just took a major step forward. the cement wrapped up a test vote on a bill giving the president fast-track trade authority. -- the senate wrapped up. this deal finally has the votes it needs. peter: there were enough democrats to join with republicans to back the president on this fast-track trade authority. they can take up this legislation and begin the real debate. this was a procedural vote. but one with big applications for the president and his economic agenda. he lost this vote on tuesday with only one democrat joining republicans. forward.s a big step forward for the president. but not a final step. scarlet: sounds like a few hurdles to clear.
it has to pass the house as well. what is the outlook there? peter: it has to pass the senate first. soon as nextpen as week. then it will go over to the house of representatives. , the topnancy pelosi democrat in the house saying she remains on the fence, a lot of democrats reluctant to support this right now because of the ghost of nafta, concerns about currency minute relation, they want that language in this legislation. you have john boehner singh republicans will step up and support this, but the new democrats to come on board as well. john boehner: republicans will do our part. thesuccess will require democrats putting aside politics and doing what's best for our country. clear how manyt democrats will be prepared to support this on the floor, not only in the senate in the day, but in the house as well. still a few hurdles to clear.
this is not a done deal, but it's a big day for the president. and for all those companies so eager to be able to do more business in places like the pacific rim in europe. his trade agenda looked down and out and came back in a big way. unlike the washington capitals. peter: i knew that was coming. scarlet: especially after you tweeted out your seats. peter: it was a good game last night. some great goaltending. that guy in the net for the rangers is pretty good. scarlet: pretty handsome, too. , oil futures pulled back on an ample global supply. the movements in the oil market as the commodities general crystal does mcchrystal retires after serving 34 years. jeb bush has a tough time in reno, nevada.
the controversial accusations made at his recent town hall. tired of reality tv? you're not alone. viewer fatigue is spreading online. amazon subsumption video service is dropping several by, shows. -- viacom shows. another blood to the network hosting channels like mtv and comedy central. -- blow to the network. with us is paul sweeney of bloomberg intelligence. not buying upis reality shows. programmers are still making these shows. lucas: there was a time when reality tv seems to be the most popular genre because you can make it for a popular cost. -- for a lower cost. now, you are seeing more and more of these networks move away from it. because they are not as popular in repeat viewings, which is
what netflix and amazon are. they will spend a lot of money for the rights for shows. you can't really binge on teen mom. we talk about the golden age of television. with lots of critically crammed -- acclaimed scripted dramas come everyone is looking for the next madman. paul: what's happening in the television business is this move towards original programming. it's no longer good enough to show reruns of tv shows. it's all about original programming and hbo started that with the sopranos. it has expanded beyond the premium networks to basic networks. -- that is no longer holding up.
everyone is investing in original content. when do they make their money back? boomott channel has been a because it's been real cash for them for their programs. his binge viewing on these over-the-top services impacting the core network businesses? lucas: there are only so many shows that looks and amazon want. at the same time you are cement looks and who shrink the amount of shows their filing -- you are netflix and amazon shrink the mount of shows they are buying -- the voice is one of the highest rated shows on nbc. dancing with the stars does pretty well for abc. scarlet: even though there are
no stars on dancing with the stars anymore. these one of the reasons shows still have value is because they're are not that expensive to produce. the most expensive part of the voice is paying for the talent. scarlet: i have to think there is a ripple effect. magazine's get their subject matter, their content from people who star in these shows. paul: exactly. from the upfront selling season. we attended a lot of these presentations and there is a lot of new programming coming on the networks. both broadcast and cable networks are still investing a tremendous amount of money in programming. every network seems to have happened is a new shows coming on every year, including this year. the challenge for the networks is to find an economic model that works.
ott has been a big part of that. will it continue to be a big source of revenue? scarlet: the networks go with what works and what hasn't been working -- one of the voiceover stars of the simpson's tweeted out last night that he is leaving the show. he does the voice of net planners -- ned flanders -- the characters won't go away. lucas: they will find a way to keep them. how that will work -- he had a very malleable voice. he was at least a dozen characters. scarlet: he was also awesome and spinal tap. do you know how much the franchise is worth? paul: billions of dollars. homer simpson and bart simpson made the fox network because the fox network 20 years ago had little to no ratings until they
and lagging equity sectors today. industry groups are rising. apple and intel climbing at least 2%. materials in the middle of the pack, up only 1% and energy are the laggards here. commoditiesou how settled. crude oil has been stuck at six dollars a barrel. got bearish ellerman's -- elements -- the market is only realizing it today. bearish affect is the refinery capacity has been down 1.8%. imports did rise. production is still high. perhaps it will go to stockpiles in the future and they remain
more than 100 million barrels above their five-year average. scarlet: we have plenty of oil. alix: plenty of oil. big traders are very skeptical. >> the market is going up. -- rig counts will start going up. alix: the idea of higher prices will continue to ramp up production and that will increase production in the future and lower prices down the curve. falling dollar is not having more impact today. have been quite
inversely correlated, more so than usual over the last few months. we are definitely not sing that today. scarlet: we are keeping an eye on the stock commodities. wheat. alix: a big storm might hit the place. prices are jumping the most in six weeks. you have severe thunderstorms that could hit the great plains on friday and saturday. too much rain can hurt the crop. somequality -- there are bearish indicators out there. russia is getting ready to wrap upwheat exports -- ramp wheat exports. they could export 1.2 million tons through june 30. scarlet: russia is a big player. when they had the fires and everything, they really moved week prices because their supply was severely damaged. alix: russia and retain -- ukraine. you have the ruble rising.
russia can do things like this, eliminate the tax to get more wheat out. scarlet: that was just a sneak preview of everything to learn from alix steel when she comes back in 15 minutes. stories.ok at some top paypal is returning to its roots as an independent company. its payments division will trade on the nasdaq -- it's original sticker system before it was acquired in 2002. split lastbay announced the year. a change in the pr driver seat at uber. the head of policy and communications now leading -- leaving his post. he will take a seat on the board and work with the ceo. rachel weston will be replacing heavier mark zuckerberg is a celebrity has
31st birthday today. -- themore billions facebook founder is worth $35 billion today. increased byas more than $400 million in the past 24 hours. he became the world's youngest billionaire at 23 back in 2008. today, president obama and leaders of six states will gather at camp david for the it comes asas -- they work to reach an agreement with iran by the end of june to curb its nuclear ambitions. , stanleyhis morning mcchrystal explained why he theeves it's essential for president to reassure them that his strategy on iran will not leave them vulnerable. mcchrystal: american legitimacy and credibility in
the region needs to be reinforced overtime. we will not run the region and they will have to decide much of their future themselves. they will form coalitions to do that. american leadership and american shoulder to shoulder support for them is going to be very important. scarlet: general stanley mcchrystal is a poor start -- four-star general. when it comes to the u.s. -- the bruising winter was supposed to give way to a spring recovery which has not happened yet. consumers were reluctant to splurge in april. do we blame the recovery in gasoline prices -- on gasoline prices? kroger get on is here. we say we hit the low in december and january. if we did not see the gas price benefits there cometh not happening.
gasoline has distinct seasonal transportation rises 25% the first half of the year. we are up only 5% from december levels. you are seeing a much softer rebound than that, which typically occurs. consumers are reaping a benefit from low gasoline prices. people are a bit too quick to look for this benefit. we need a little bit more patience to be sure. the march sales data looked decent. we get april discretionary spending which was still good. there was still echoes of this benefit. scarlet: the chart does show the seasonal effect and that move higher. the blue line is where we are right now. we have a ways to go compared to the in your average. -- 10 year average. the tax cut for consumers is about $120 million.
we had some weird issues in the economy with the stagnant growth in the first quarter, especially very adverse weather in february. february, there was a distinct pattern in place. easter came earlier this year, pushing those sales into march. we look at the april march average on retail, does not look too bad. scarlet: we will see. up, trouble in reno for jeb bush. our politics team joins us next to discuss. ♪
engaged in the iraq war. this comes after he said in a fox news interview that he would have authorized it. town hall event wednesday, he said he and misinterpreted the question and now did not have an answer to the hypotheticals. john heilman joins us now. this is clearly going to be a big issue for jeb. how he decideson to answer a whole bunch of questions about how his relationship -- after three horrible days of failing to enter this push and adequately, this is the day he tried to tie up the ball and move on. it surprises me that they did not have a rehearsed answer. it's inevitable that this would come up. john: this question was the single most obvious question that was going to get asked of jeb bush.
we predicted this was the major single mostthe obvious predictable question in the world. the fact that he did not have a scripted answer is almost political malpractice. scarlet: will someone get fired? campaignthe end, every , the response ability lies with the candidate. we don't know whether someone tried to coach them. a lot of people have had smart ideas for what a candidate should say in the candidate does not want to hear it. bush's this is jeb political malpractice. why theyyou wonder weren't better prepared for it. i have to ask you about the former ambassador to the one, now not running for president. to the u.n.
there was speculation about him running because he talked about running. he raised a ton of money in his super pac. he went to a lot of candidate cattle calls and gave speeches. a lot of people thought he would get in today. not a guy likely to win the republican nomination. he said openly that if he ran, he wasn't really running to try to win the nomination but to influence the debate. his decision to get out doesn't impact the race. he would have been the most strident, calm voice of the party. he's a guy with a a lot of credibility. he has had big jobs and has been a major player in republican for policy for longtime -- foreign policy for a long time. scarlet: is he running to be
vice president? john: he is not running. he would've been running to influence the debate. he won to have his voice heard and have the most ardent neoconservative views about he thinks the -- world is in a dangerous place and he wanted to make sure his posture was heard. scarlet: thank you so much, john heilman, one of the anchors for "with all due respect." that airs tonight at 5:00 p.m. we have much more coming up. julianna sarge-- will be hillary clinton's worst nightmare. ♪
scarlet: avon is the target of a takeover -- shares going 20%. crash,fter the amtrak the spotlight is on transportation safety. we look at the private jet industry which has some alarming statistics. scarlet: good afternoon. i'm scarlet fu, here with alix steel. s&p: you are looking at and clawing its way to a closing record. that's the inter-day -- we have not hit that but if we close right now, we would be at a new record for the s&p. scarlet: it's like 2014 all over again. the nasdaq doing the best of the three, but the dollar is weak or , now at a four-month