tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg May 26, 2015 6:00am-8:01am EDT
number three will buy number two in cable tv, leaving number one at the altar. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we are live from our world headquarters in new york. i'm tom keene. joining me brendan greeley. let's get straight to top stories right now. vonnie: let's start with a story breaking right now. the takeover in the cable tv industry per charter communications agreeing to buy time warner cable, and also right house networks. we are looking at $100 cash and more than half a share per-share of time warner cable. that would value the deal at $78.7 billion. we were looking for the deal to happen this morning.
charter's biggest shareholder is billionaire john malone. charter tried last year to buy time warner cable, but that offer was rejected. once again greece is trying to resolve its differences with europe, so yet more bailout money. talks resumed today between greece and the imf. greece is running out of money but european lenders will not release the bailout funds unless the greeks' promise reforms on labor and rules. the biggest political up saint a decade. polish bond yields rose after andres bruno was elected president. he also said -- said vice chairman sally fisher says the central bank is playing a waiting game when it comes to interest rates. says of the fed raises rates too quickly, it will be difficult if
the fed -- if the economy does not take off. >> we have another phrase. our processes are not date determined, they are data determined. wait and see what happens. we do not have to announce we are going to do it in september. if the economy is growing slowly, we will wait. vonnie: stanley fischer says putting too much importance it on the economy is -- and pro basketball, houston state alive in the western conference finals. james harden scored 45 points to lead the rockets to a 128-115 win over the warriors. the warriors lead the series three games to one. steph curry took a nasty fall in the second quarter. he went to the locker room for an hour before returning, ending up with 23 points. you always return after going to the locker room.
brendan: i cannot even deal with that footage right there. i would never want to feel that much pain. durable goods orders show up at 8:30 a.m. hopefully they will not be in as much pain as steph curry. 9:00 a.m., case schiller, we will see what housing looks like. more home sales data. and also the consumer confidence index. tom: i want to get a quick look at greece before we get back careful analysis of this historic television and cable tv merger. risk off decidedly this morning. nymex crude and the euro under a 1.10. on to the next screen, please. the vix showing complacency. of course, the greek two-year is worse than it was two hours ago, showing the tension. that is not a typo or a 25.8%
per you -- per year yield. i don't not know what we learned over the weekend. here is the catharsis of two ugly moves. what is the immediate thing you are looking at brendan, monday, tuesday, wednesday, and into this week? brendan: i do not think there is any specific thing. we had a "new york times" article. we had a young is verified guess op-ed yesterday. we are going to talk about that, featuring roughly the same thing. i think the movement we are seeing is more defiance. tom: i like the word there defining it as we saw it in our story out of athens this morning. let's go to breaking news. this is our most interesting
transaction. i'm flabbergasted, but i will also be flabbergasted at the government response. chris marangi is with us and alex is with us as well. i want to go with us -- why would the government allow this transaction if it did not allow the last one? >> they probably have to break up comcast as is. even when you put these three companies together -- charter time warner cable, and bright house, you end up with a company that is smaller than current comcast. i would think that if the government had a problem with the transaction, they would also have a problem with comcast has comcast also owns nbc universal. they are a much bigger company. tom: the distinction is broadband. through your prism of reporting, what does this mean within
broadband, not our espn or that but what this mean for the internet connection that we get at the house? even then this company is going to be a smaller company than current comcast. i would guess that we already know tom wheeler called the two ceo's of these companies and the fcc and said because we rejected comcast is not mean we will reject all cable deals. that is a strong signal that this deal will go through. brendan: but the justice department has been out in front of the fcc and worrying about some of these deals. i worry about when we tried to figure out what the competition is for, we are not talking about competition for the consumer. all these cable groups have monopolies in their own foot trends, on their own wires. we are looking at the way they compete for suppliers. alex: the fcc had a problem with
comcast time warner cable because it had no public benefit. it was not that it was bad, is the -- it is that it was not good. how is this good? tom: i am thunderstruck by the valuations at $195.71. 5.5 times debt to equity. this is like an old-style john malone transaction. this is like back in our youth. chris: this all started back in june of 2013 when john pronounced charter, his horizontal acquisition machine. he got sidetracked, but it looks like he has finally gotten his prize. tom: is this dinosaurs mating? chris: no, it is all about broadband. tom: it has nothing to do if my
espn, my nhl? chris: importantly, the cable companies control the last mile. they control the connection to the consumer. brendan: to alex's point, do you see any consistency value would say yes or no about this deal? chris: i definitely do not see consistency. the -- broadband was -- brendan: we have been behind. we were four downturn why do we go up to 25 gekko chris: even netflix says that you do not need 25 down to get good service from netflix. but you have to pick a number, that is the number that they picked. this new combination will be about 24%. tom: can we have a moment of silence for robert marcus? alex sherman, have we ever seen
this in the cable industry where he patiently waits and waits it is courted at the altar, and here we go? alex: you could say today is a victory day because charter landed's prize, but charter could have acquired time warner cable. now they are buying them for $195 per share. tom: is this stupid money? alex: charter stock would have plummeted if the deal did not go through. i was talking to various advisors and people around the deal over the weekend. they describe this as manifest destiny for john malone. tom: your cfa book, it says if you see manifest destiny, run. alex: -- chris: it is not as big a gap.
alex: but this company all teas -- but this company, altice just forced charter to pay more. tom: charter meeting with time warner cable. manifest -- can we get manifest destiny? brendan: we are sticking with it for our twitter question of the day -- how much do you lows your cable provider? 's cable consolidation good or bad for the consumer? tweet us @bsurveillance." this is "bloomberg surveillance" and cable report. good morning. ♪
risk off in the markets. we have a big megamerger in charter acquiring time warner cable. let's get to our top headlines on a tuesday, not monday morning. vonnie: he is responsible for the look and feel of apple 's most important products. he worked closely with apple cofounder steve jobs. tim cook has expanded johnny i've's role. the wall street journal says federal prosecutors will probably bring charges. the sticking points are the size of the fine and whether gm will need to plead guilty. it is the worst memorial day weekend for 2001. -- since 2001.
"tomorrowland" had significantly less than expected. it is the first time in three years -- tom: the movies yeah, big deal, but it really was a nonevent for hollywood over the memorial day weekend. let's look forward into our show, bloomberg surveillance. chris marangi is with us. we will talk about the game theory behind charter's acquisition. they were forced into doing this expensive deal, some would say. productivity -- brendan has a phenomenal chart on why america is different than europe. and we visit with -- they are not chanel but hermes somehow gets it right. i will try to score another bow tie off it. shameless plug.
brendan: you are on your own when you talk hockey and bow ties. tom: greece deteriorates. also italian and german officials -- they opine that will they opine decidedly -- will they opine decidedly against athens? hans nichols what did we learn over our three day weekend? hans co. we learned the germans are not moving, greeks are not moving, and greeks are increasingly concerned. nothing has changed from a month ago. brendan: at what point does a flutter of news turn into risk? hans: before, greece would not be able to pay their imf interest. they have a june 15 deadline now. this morning has more weight because previously there was a letter reported after the fact
from alexis tsipras to madame lingard -- two to madame lagarde. that is a real deadline. i sit real deadline so many times, though, i do not even believe myself anymore. brendan: we saw two pieces of news about yanis varoufakis over the weekend. about how he deals with economics in general. there was this project syndicate op-ed in which he was defiant. does it feel like he is pre-writing his own obituary here? hans: if you are thinking of a way for maybe him to exit and for him to clinch a deal, his exit could be one bank. for he and sue reza are one and the same and he and sippers are
one and the same. the idea of compromising on austerity is anathema. that is what they are saying -- we will not reform or cut back on pensions reform labor laws. yesterday it was said that the civil servants are too bloated and their pension payments are too high. there is no coming together. tom: what is the position of germany? i saw angela merkel's photograph over the weekend. is there a nuance to what you observe in berlin of berlin? hans: there is a difference between angela merkel and her finance minister. he is clear that it is up to greece to do what it is -- what is best. merkel is thinking ahead -- if there is a second or third bailout package, what does she
need to do to keep her coalition together? she is thinking about speeches more about what if you do get an agreement, what is the next step ? the german public is not prepared nor in the mood for more money for greece. tom: bring up the euro, if you would. this is really important. we are back on parity watch. we are coming back on a weaker euro, and you get down to 1.10, and the markets tell you what to do. brendan: let's talk hail marys. from where you are, is there any hope that sue reza might make it easier to cut a deal? tom: that is exceedingly to different -- exceedingly difficult to do when you look at the numbers. pay the imf or compromise on your core principles -- he won that vote 95-75. that means 75 members will be comfortable defaulting if defaulting meant keeping true to principles.
the math does not work out. trying to think of a way to bring in hail mary and i could not do it. i am not clear. tom: ion not clear on how hair met -- how hail mary meets germany. brendan: it is basically a day where you sit outside entering here. tom: it is like a massive inside joke. not in america on sunday would we sit outside and drink beer. peter nichols -- hans the bulls -- i will get it right. thank you so much. in the next hour -- hans nichols -- i will get it right. thank you so much. in the next hour, peter or zag -- peter or zag. coming up, cannot miss this. chris marangi of gemelli, we will talk about the game theory of dinosaurs mating in the cable tv business. good morning. it is "bloomberg surveillance."
tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." tom keene and brendan greeley on your tuesday morning. we will speak of john nash tragically killed in a car accident this weekend in new jersey at 86 years. let's go to a wonderful quote that tries to explain in english -- "the new york times." i thought this was brilliant, explaining john nash. tom: that explains about 70 years of controversial mathematics and game theory,
which is a perfect jumping point to speak of this morning press merger of charter and time warner. i am sorry, chris marangi this is all about game theory. charter had to do this deal because they were inconsequential if they did not, right? chris: there are only so many women in the bar. tom: altice, the french/israeli backed method. sometimes people do mergers for reasons that are not visible. why did john malone five -- find $5 billion of cheap money for this transaction? chris: overblown fears about regulation and secular change. these are the hedge funds, and john committed. they put their money where their mouth is. i have not run all the terms. tom: i think it is just
fascinating, the gain -- the game theory involved. brendan: we have john nash to thank, in a way, for the way we think about game theory. it was a mathematical way of looking at things in the 1950's. it was john nash who made it more acceptable to economists more as a principal easier to grasp there it tom: he wrote a 32 page paper at age 21. there is a huge controversy at princeton. as you say, it is a part of everything we do now. i look at it as, what is behind the curtain. what is behind the curtain of this transaction? chris: if charter had not done this deal, they would be middling scale. it is all about scale in this industry. you need subscribers to add the programmers, to fund technology
development. comcast has it, and they have been executing well. tom: within the tragedy over the weekend, john nash of princeton, dead at 86 with his wife. i flew back from abreu dobby with john nash, his wife, and his son. he was not the most outgoing individual, but he had a huge graciousness, trapped in an airplane. john nash is dead at 86. ♪
we know this after careful research. in midtown manhattan, what a weekend. it was cold on the beach. everybody that went away froze. it was gorgeous in new york city this weekend. truly gorgeous. let's get to top headlines with the always gorgeous vonnie quinn. vonnie: tom, what a greeting. billionaire john malone has been after time warner for two years and now he may be getting it. charter communications has agreed to buy charter -- time warner cable. last year time warner cable rejected charter's takeover bid and later accepted an offer from comcast, but the comcast bid fell apart in april, opening the door for charter to try again. greece may be running out of money, but the country will not accept a cure that is worth -- that is worse than the disease. yanis varoufakis blames creditors over the impasse over bailout funds.
he says they keep insisting on more bailout moves. the two sides are meeting again today in brussels. in texas there was more rain and flash flooding overnight. five inches of rain fell near houston, and more is expected today. at least 12 people are missing after a vacation home they were staying in was swept away by floodwaters. in a case, u.s. military jets escorted an air france flight into jfk airport. the fbi says someone claimed the chemical weapon was on board. it is one of the biggest homes ever built in the u.s., and it can be yours for a record $500 million. a developer is building this 74,000 square foot home in the posh bel air neighborhood -- he says it will have every amenity you want, including an imax style theater, a 5000 square
foot master bedroom, and a monaco style's casino. i think you would add a few bowties thrown in there. tom: i would get lost in it. you are going to do something here bigger and broader on cable. brendan: we are talking about deals. chris cappelli is with us. tom: chris marangi. brendan: sorry, you are chris marangi. you work for gemelli -- forgot what i want to understand is, there is one thing cable providers can do for telecommunications in the u.s. which is expand their wi-fi footprint and turned that into wireless phone service. is that what we are looking to do here, or is this just beasts swallowing other beasts? chris: there is no doubt that is part of it.
the wi-fi mesh network covers new york city and a lot of other cities. you put them together and it becomes more seamless. you mentioned the m word earlier. monopoly. it is really not. wireless is to the point where it is competitive with wireline. everywhere in america you have the choice of the big three wireless providers. brendan: do you really think so? even with lte right now, you cannot ever get the same bandwidth. chris: clearly it is getting better every day. more spectrum will come on the market and be deployed but wire will always be more cost-effective than wireless. tom: he is over it? chris: there are more transactions to come. one of the lesser appreciated aspects of the charter-time
warner deal was swaps. that deal was going to straighten them out. what happens to new york, what happens -- tom: is this a duopoly? brendan: what i want to understand is, what do these deals, or what does this pattern of deal making capital investment in this space? your broadband get that -- your broadband gets better, are we looking at that future at all? chris: what happens with title two and you have your hand regulation. brendan: -- what that does to investment, we do not know. that is out there, and these companies have chose to invest capital in broadband. brendan: what has driven
investment in the past -- his investment you basically get faster speed -- has been the appearance of a new competitor. chris: absolutely. google fiber definitely spurred investor -- investment in cities like kansas city. they are inextricably linked, and you have to have a regulatory regime that of that's a new company. tom: let's go to the chart. time warner cable up up and away. mr. marcus, the y axis is correct. it has gone from 143 to the green circle, $195.70. how does your world change if we get a 10-year yield of 150 or 200 basis points? chris: this is not the leverage of the past.
this is not your grandfather's. i don't know -- our rates going up 200 basis points? tom: i am not predicting that they will. but to brandon's point, if we do not do this now, we will not get the window in 2017. i go back to what does brian roberts do. chris: he participates in some of the swaps that will come out of this deal, whether it is new york, l.a., some other systems. as a consequence of this deal there will be more consolidation of content. brendan: chris has written a brief history of the cable industry. he calls it the broadcast age 45 cable h, 1975 to 2000. the internet age started in 2000. 2000 was when the cable industry was started to make its investment in high-speed internet access. when did the internet age actually start?
is it when everybody gets rid of cable? chris: it started 15 years ago and we saw 100 million subscribers to the traditional package. it shows you how durable the model is. tom: craig moffett talks about cable finally being here. does that continue the? chris: no doubt about it it will continue. the industry has to adapt. these are dinosaurs mating, but dinosaurs have been around for a long time. brendan: i feel like cord cutting is not the right term for this. cord cutting implies you are severing the connection to your cable provider. you needed now more than ever. chris: they have this power. we do not say the m word, but they have this pricing power. tom: all right, the cash flows
tom: good morning, everyone. to touch upon where we are heading here on "bloomberg surveillance" this morning, it is time to get to the single best chart. let's go to brendan greeley. brendan: janet yellen has a speech in providence on friday she was words that she was worried on productivity. she was told you do not know from productivity problems. that is the subject of today's single best chart. we are looking at total factor productivity. this is a measure that -- there is some discussion about how accurate it is at a measure of economic phenomenon. it is a measure of how much each worker contributes to the economy -- education training. when you look there, seldom do charts tell the story that is that clear.
you see during the recession itself, after the crisis, the u.s. factor productivity is flat. mario draghi is freaked out. tom: this is all jean-claude juncker show talked about. -- this is all jean-claude true shea talked about. then you have to defuse it through the system. we do that, europe does not. brendan: this is the same thing mario draghi said in his speech. one way to think about this is that the u.s. is an actual country. we speak the same language, despite cultural differences. we have basically the same values. it is easier to take technology and move it around. we can bemoan that fact politically. but one consequence is that it is culturally more difficult to
move technology and ideas from country to country. europe is roughly the same size as the u.s. we have chris marangi here with us from gabelli talk about telecom. despite their deregulation, europe is still a country-by-country market for telecoms. chris: the european response to having no silicon valley is to put shackles on microsoft and others. tom: it is a raging debate. it is a constructive debate. this idea of a higher valued human capital -- i cannot even believe we are having the debate in 2015. i get it in another time and place. brendan: both mario draghi and janet yellen say that it is not just infusion, it is also education. education is the big component
over human capital. is in the quality of the education? tom: i was finishing up gary wills' fabulous piece on lincoln. he loved cutting edge technology and innovation, which was the telegraph at the time. that was a miracle in 1864, or whatever. we have our own telegraphs today. brendan: we will move from that too -- tom is also never seen without a. top photos. we will look at pictures. number three, in venice the 41st vogolonga took off this weekend. are they rowboats? those are gondolas. here is what i wonder.
the event tests the growing use of powerboats in venice. my question is, if there are not powerboats in venice, how can there be action sequences in movies? there is "the italian job," "james bond." that is where action takes place. number two -- i am told by the control room to move on. the galapagos islands -- ash was sent six miles into the air from a volcanic interruption -- from a volcanic eruption. tom: i know they have big one is. have you been? it is like you are out in the middle of nowhere. brendan: number one photo in ireland, people celebrate outside the dublin castle as same-sex marriage is legalized.
this is such a huge deal. this is the first country in the world to legalize gay marriage by popular vote with 62%. tom: they won big. brendan: they won huge in such a traditionally catholic country. this says a lot about the country as well how much moral authority the church has lost in ireland. the church cannot dictate what happens there. it is extraordinary. tom: and a major focus is that it is a national referendum. there it is. our photos -- coming up, how about this? 34% is the number of buyers from asia. it is getting bigger every day. the chief executive officer of hermes is with us. stay with us. it is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪
particular. he has sharp opinions on infrastructure. futures, negative four. our top headlines this tuesday with vonnie quinn. vonnie: a 10% yield on puerto rico's junk bonds. goldmans almost quadrupled its stake in puerto rican bonds in a little more than a year. it had a $1.3 billion worth of puerto rican bonds as of the first week in may. four of the 10 largest holders of puerto rican bonds have been cutting stakes. ryanair carried 11% more passengers than he did a year ago, and it has locked in lower prices for fiscal 2017. the airline will now try to gain market share at bigger european airports.
it was the first for men's college lacrosse. it is the first across title for estate that does not touch the atlantic ocean. denver's coach won six national titles at princeton. do either of you play, tom and brendan? brendan: i cannot tell you how big that is in maryland. my mother was told that i was too old how to learn how to play lacrosse. i had to go to another league. it is so ingrained in the culture there. what has happened, i will bet many of those players came from maryland or new jersey. a lot of places, denver in particular, are recruiting from the atlantic seaboard to the college program to win national titles. that is extraordinary, and i know too much about college lacrosse. tom: in our next hour we will
revisit this merger of the morning charter and time warner cable. looking forward to doing that. alex sherman with us as well. greece -- will the talks unravel? we will go to hans nichols in berlin. and one year on, 10 year mr. modi as well. peter orszag also joining us. 1.i calculated that if i invested 200 -- if i invested 10 years ago, i could have bought a work in bag today. that is the amount of -- robert chavez, ceo of hermes cells and occasional bow tie, which i wear. and hermes magic maintains itself today. mr. shabazz joint -- mr. shaaban
chavez joins us today. what is the difference in your ties? robert chavez: it is how they printed -- how they are printed. if you notice, it ties a perfect not with a perfect dimple. tom: a magic floor is the cosmetics floor in looming dales. you started out as -- at bloomingdale's. robert chavez: what i learned from the cosmetics industry is the consistency of the marketing message, also the consistency of the training the quality of the service. cosmetics people really invest in their selling staff and the training event staff. today if you look around services is poor. tom: this would be a good
observation. brendan: we look at a breakdown of your global numbers. a huge percentage still comes from france, 16% is what i am looking at right here. 17% from the americas. 34% of sales comes from asia. that makes the u.s. feel like the old country. how is selling here different from selling in asia? robert chavez: the single biggest difference is that our business here is driven by the majority of domestic customers. so 70% of our business here is done by local clients. when i say local, all of our clients, whether boston, seattle, beverly hills houston, dallas -- we have a much more locally built -- locally driven base. tom: chris: belly -- chris marangi of gabelli is with us. how do you leverage your name in men's fashion?
robert chavez: what we offer is unique. it is all about the quality of the product. when you have a beautiful suit like that why not line it with a beautiful scarf lining? that is the type of thing we can do have something that is more unique and special. brendan: this guy is good. tom: within this is the idea of not doing what others do. we all noticed louis vuitton getting bigger and bigger. you have chosen aggressively not to do that. how do you know every day what not to do to keep the brand going? robert chavez: it is about always remaining true to our heritage which is about quality and craftsmanship. it is also about the authenticity of the brand. it is maintaining authenticity. tom: where do you get the people to build this stuff? the leather belts, that
bracelet? how do you find the thousands of people it must take? robert chavez: 1-wood think that the -- one would think that the craftsmen are much older. when you get to the workshop, the next generation has a greater interest in working with their hands. brendan: you could buy a preowned were cities -- is there a certified preowned bag market? robert chavez: it is the loyalty of our customers, and again, it is just the high demand of the bags as a very functional bag. brendan: you talked about the breakdown between domestic customers and foreign customers. what is the difference between a shop that is domestic and a foreign shop? robert chavez: there is no computer sheet that spreads the buy. tom: robert chavez, thank you so
tom: greece further unravels. greece will not do more austerity. germany notes time is running out. number three will buy number two and cable tv, leaving number one at the altar. charter crashes the comcast-time warner wedding. and on america's debt and deficit, peter orszag joins us in this hour. good morning, everyone. cory:this is "bloomberg surveillance." . wewe are live from our world headquarters in new york. i cannot decide what is the bigger story -- greece or this merger, merger, merger. brendan: in greece, there is an out me that we cannot figure out. i guess the best way to look at it is the closer we get to the less good news there is, the more that is actually better. tom: a little bit of focus here in the u.s., but certainly the
story continuing in europe will stop let's get to our top headlines with vonnie quinn. vonnie: thank you, tom. the top stories the huge takeover in the cable tv industry. charter communications has agreed to by time warner cable. the deal is worth about $55 billion in cash and docks. charter will pay nearly $196 a share. 14% above time warner cable's closing price last friday. time warner cable is the second-biggest u.s. cable company. charter is the fourth larger. charter's biggest shareholder is john malone, and charter's bid to buy time warner cable last year was turned down. time warner cable then turned to comcast, but comcast backed out of that deal less month after pressure from regulators. european union leaders are warning today that greek debt talks need to speed up. there is no plan b in the crisis. talks resume today on a bailout deal. greece is running out of money but european lenders will not release funds unless greek
promises reforms on pension, taxes, and labor rules. investors are not encouraged by the big political upset in poland. polish bond yields hit a two-week high after duda ousted the incoming president. he plans to boost benefits for families. a federal reserve officials as the central bank is playing a waiting game on interest rates will start speaking in israel vice chairman stanley fischer says it will be tough for the fed to cut rates again if the economy does not approve. stanley: we have another phrase -- our processes are not date determined, they are data determined. we will wait and see what happens. we do not have to announce we're going to do it in september if the economy is going -- if the economy is growing slowly, we will wait. vonnie: he said the fed's moves
are determined by data, not dates. and a knockout punch in the nba playoffs. the rockets have a victory. the warriors needed one more win. steph curry went to the locker room for about an hour but came out with 23 points. that is some come back. those are your top headlines, guys. brendan: vonnie i've had to watch that three times now, and each time it makes me cringe. a lot of economic news coming out this morning. 8:30 a.m., durable goods orders. 9:00, case schiller index blurred 10:00 a.m., new home sales. also consumer confidence index. tom: let's do a data check. uglier two hours ago. the risk off is a little less offier. futures -4. they were -8. brendan: i am sorry, little less
"offier"? do they say that in the streets. tom: i think in the textbook they said "offier." brendan: now that i have put a squealing halt on tom's data check chartered medications has agreed to buy time warner cable. time warner is the second-biggest u.s. cable company. charter is the fourth-largest. our very own alex sherman has been watching the tick-tock of the last six months. -- alex: two years. brendan: alex, there was a time, a decade almost when you could take regulatory approval for granted. that is no longer the case. what is going to happen? what are the signals we are looking for from the fcc and the justice department that this will be ok? alex: the only question remaining is is there some sort of public benefit to doing this deal because that is the standard that comcast-time
warner cable could not get. that said, it does seem to be a situation where the steel is much more likely to be approved the van the comcast deal because this company, even coming together, will still be smaller than comcast in its own iteration. tom: why do we all hate our cable providers so much? where did that start ? equities, bonds, currencies, commodities alex: well, the customer service is terrible. it has the worst customer service of any organization by and large. other than utilities. there is only one cable provider more or less in every city already. cable companies do not compete with each other. you are just replacing time warner cable with charter. maybe they will do other asset swaps, but more or less, you just have a new name on your service. brendan: they are not bad people
at cable companies. they do not have to compete for your business. in the u.s., we do not have choices. in most places, the best you can get is a duopoly. very few places even have more than a duopoly. alex: a lot of it is a misunderstanding of the business. in other words, i get angry because my cable bill goes up, and i'm like that's why am i paying all this money for least channels that i do not even watch? actually, it is the programming companies forcing the cable companies to take all these channels -- at least in the old world, that is starting to change a little bit -- and they are jacking the prices up. brendan: i have one quote, lenny bruce in a 1970's said -- i do not know what communism is like, but i imagine it would be like if the phone company runs everything. tom: and that would be the cable company today. peter orszag opining here. everything is about cheap money today. how much is the great distortion of your economic world, the reason we are talking about dinosaurs mating.
money is free, is it? peter: that is clearly one of the forces behind the m&a wave but we have a low rates because as dan fisher was saying, we are concerned about the state of the -- as stan fischer was saying, we are concerned about the state of the economy. tom: do you worry that the great disruption benefits people like john long and it goes -- john malone, and it benefits people who are smart enough to do transactions? while everybody else, including cable bill providers -- brendan: that is the best way to think of them, cable bill providers. tom: people writing the check every month is getting hammered. peter: we had two decades to three decades of rising inequality. the key questions -- why, and what can we do about it? most of the rhetoric is about
ceo versus average pay. the evidence suggests that most of the rise and wage equality is payout at apple, for example is different than that at mcdonald's, not within-firm inequality. this paper -- tom: who wrote it? peter: i just saw it. number 16 on the and be our list. -- on the nbr list. brendan: i noticed in janet yellen spent about three paragraphs on a state spending. she believes there is still a drag on the money that states are willing to put into the economy. it is interesting to hear her several years after the recession still talking about that. is that still a factor for you? peter: it absolutely is. it is not the majority of states, but there is a clear minority of state that are still implement in current --
implementing contractionary policies. the concern for the long-term is that states have been cutting back on appropriations for higher education. public universities have not been able to offset that, despite huge tuition increases, over the last 45 years. relative to private universities, public universities have turreted significantly -- has deteriorated significantly. tom: is the internet good for kids? the idea is, two peters went some of the internet can make a lot of kids smarter with access to knowledge. does charter and time warner cable use the broadband debate when they try to get this thing approved? alex: absolutely. comcast was trying and failed. tom: let's simplify. john malone is going to say, if you let us merge, we will provide better internet to make poor kids smarter. alex: better, cheaper internet perhaps in regions of the
country that still do not have broadband internet which does exist in large swaths of the country. you do not have access still to high-speed broadband internet because it has not been cost efficient for the cable companies to build it. that may slowly start to a road, and that will be a big chip to throw for the obama administration to say look, we will do this, and all these people get access that is not have it -- that did not have it before. tom: alex sherman, thank you. brendan: there are a lot of solution for that. utility providers have thought about providing broadband access. we do not have a good answer to this question. the sec is simply forward on this, but we ask you -- is cable consolidation good or bad for the consumer? how much you hate your cable company? let us know @bsurveillance. ♪
sufficient fiscal consolidation he writes, is not just false, it is patently absurd. relative to the rest of the countries on the eurozone referee, greece was subjected to at least twice that austerity. there is nothing more to it than that. peter orszag, you and janyanis varoufakis have two things in common. how hard is it for someone who teaches it to actually do it because it is not working out well for him? peter: the thing that is most clear about greece is that either the government is going to fail, or does going to find a new coalition. either way, there will be a new finance minister within two months. that is the single best bet to make on greece. it is hard to translate from academia to government, and some people do it well, and other people do not. admittedly, he is in a very trying situation. tom: there is a headline just out here, vonnie: yanis varoufakis
says greece to steal deal by june 5. i think we have seen that headline. brendan: no we have never seen a date before. peter: whether it says june 5 or sixth, you were right at the threshold of when they will have a deal, so it will be the natural -- brendan: the greek side of the negotiation has consistently been more confident than the german and the broader european side. the nut of this disagreement between france and germany -- a between greece and germany, let's call a spate a state, is about the surplus, how much they are allowed to hold onto. is it reasonable to ask greece to hold 2% overtime? peter: it is very painful. the irony is the new greek government may be right on the broad macro substance, the implementation and all the atmospheric, which is distracting from the case, i think, undid them a little bit. tom: what does austerity mean to
peter orszag? peter: it means a negative fiscal impulse. it means a construction on the economy from raising taxes or cutting spending. tom: just a negative fiscal impulse. i like that. peter orszag with us. we'll get to the negative and positive impulse of the united states as well. coming up on bloomberg ryanair chief executive officer michael o'leary in the 8:00 hour. a with us ♪
tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." i am tom keene. with me brendan greeley. let's get your top headlines. here is vonnie quinn. vonnie: the look and feel as many apple products gets a promotion. the company named johnny ives as the first ever design officer. a free version of the world's
top baby formula is headed to stores. -- the first gmo-free version of the world's top baby formula is headed to stores. and hollywood has its worst memorial day weekend in 14 years. disney's " tomorrowland" was the top grossing. if george clooney could not do it, i do not know who could. tom: they're a good. let me look at top headlines right now as we move forward through the hour. we'll address the libor trial in london. then we will move on and peter orszag will join us for what is a better than good debt and deficit. and also looking for a greek exit as part of the game as well this morning. brendan: yesterday, narendra
modi wrote a letter to india on the occasion of one year in office as prime minister. runaway prices were immediately brought under control as he wrote "the languishing economy was rejuvenated." bloomberg's harsha joins us from mumbai. do you feel rejuvenated? harsha: well, you feel rejuvenated for couple of different reasons, brendan. india's microeconomics look good because of falling oil prices. the macro headlines look good and he is taking control -- he is taking credit for. india requires a radical confirmation and the economy and what prime minister modi has done is take small, piecemeal measures that are not really adding up. brendan: what is the main complaints from his first year from the industrial groups in mumbai?
what are they say about his one year in office? harsha: brendan, the fact of the matter is big business universe -- leaders have been vocal about him from the election campaign. they have been huge cheerleaders of prime minister modi and his brand of politics. there was quite a bit of exuberance that stepped in right from day one. you know, right now, many people are asking the question -- is the modi magic waning? you're not see in corporate earnings grow as high as expected. you are not seeing investment come back with a bang. the mood and the sentiment broadly remains positive, but the question really is -- has he been getting enough signs? does he have a large economic vision statement? frankly at this point time, you are not seeing evidence of him
being an economic statesman. brendan: harsha: from where we sit, it looks like two people are running india, one is narendra modi, the other is rogerajan at the bank. can you say he has more influence than modi? harsha: mosdi is clearly the boss. he runs india. they are often seen as loggerheads. his conservative thinking has always been about expectations. they believe that the time is right for a large cut in interest rates that can improve sentiments in the investment category. governor rajan has made it clear
that unless it is coming down sharply, -- it is not as low as anticipated. brendan: all right, bloomberg's harsha: subramaniam. thanks, harsha. one of the things you have been hearing from modi is just how well india is doing in comparison to china. is it fair to look at those two economies as competing with each other? they seem to be. peter: i do not know about directly competing as impeding for the title of the next great hope of the world economy. i do think despite the somewhat negative report we just heard, there are quotes that the payoff to modi's reforms will take some time but ultimately occur, and that the growth path in india is promising. it is happening at the same time the chinese growth rate is coming down. one big concern for both countries is whether the growth that we've seen in both countries, which has been much higher than the global average
reverts to the mean of the next 20, 30 years. what is happened in general on average across country historically, if that were to occur, there is a big missing piece for the global growth occasion. tom: you are just in china. did you see the desperation? richard sharma at morgan stanley uses the word "desperation." peter: i think i would say more widespread recognition that growth in the future will be noticeably lower than it was -- tom: can i get you in trouble on the number this morning? peter: the official number or the real number? tom: the peter orszag number. [laughs] peter: they are hitting a turning point when you move from it agriculture to manufacturing, they no longer have productivity. they are trying to upgrade their
and million years ago. up we go, two cathartic moments way out over a 15 percent difference and percentage point spread. we come back, things get better, then we give it a year ago and we have a new leg up here this morning. here is the monitor. brendan: we have a leg up and the scale is too broad to see what happened. just now, you had the announcement by yanis varoufakis in italy that they have a date that they will close it by june 5. i will argue the june 5 -- anybody mentioning a date by which something will be settled is significant because we have not heard that before. tom: peter orszag help us out here, with citigroup, the heart of the matter is the time function of a lousy economy. greece has been lovely for a chronic amount of time. peter: therein lies a big problem because that fact is going to continue out for the foreseeable future. there is no plausible strong growth factor. tom: the word historisis is
almost to a national economy. peter: there is because their work skills atrophy, capital investment is reduced, so the capital stock does not return to where was before, etc. brendan: it is interesting the way you frame to this earlier, and their negotiations, reese is right on the substance that this prescription has not worked for them so far, but wrong in the theatrics of it. peter: that is the substance we're talking about now. tom: there it is. let's go to top headlines right now on a tuesday morning. here is vonnie quinn. vonnie: thanks, tom. let's start with the latest in the major deal we are following this morning the huge takeover in the cable tv industry. charter communications agreed to by time warner cable. the deal is worth about $55 billion in cash and stock. tarter will pay nearly $196 --
charter will pay nearly $196 a share 14% above time warner's closing. charters biggest shareholder is john malone. charter's bid to buy time warner cable last year was turned down. time warner cable then turned to comcast, but comcast backed out of that deal last month under pressure from regulators. a european union leaders saying today that greek debt talks need to speaked up. the economic monetary chief warned there is no plan. european leaders and lenders will not release funds unless greece promises reforms on pensions, taxes, and labor rules. 12 people are missing after a flooded texas river swept away their vacation home. officials say do not expect to find survivors. four deaths are already blamed on severe weather throughout the state during the long weekend. six international flights bound
for the u.s. are under investigation. in one case, u.s. military jets escorted an air france flight into a new york airport. the fbi said someone obtains chemical weapons on board. one of the threats are set to be credible. one of the biggest american homes ever can be yours for half $1 million. that is half $1 billion, i should say. the 70,000 square foot home in the posh beller section of los angeles will have a casino an imax theater, and a 5000 square-foot master bedroom. those are the headlines. tom: rather large to say the least. thank you so much, vonnie quinn. we talk about cheap money, time warner, that is real estate percolating again. everybody is talking about stupid rents, a whole new regime of new prices. brendan: i think we have to be
careful when we talk about that. data in london and new york and data around the rest of america. i will tell you the recovery has arrived when my house in annapolis appreciates. tom: there we go, the thermometer here at "bloomberg surveillance." brendan: that is a greeley index. tom: data check. equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. i will call it risk off, but improving, futures -4. the euro, we had a $1.08 handle earlier. nymex crude, churning. the big showing a superb equity market performance. the dow over 18,000, 18,0232 take the dollar out of the. global pairs game. euro and yen churning.
it weaker euro over the last four days five days, and brendan suggesting it goes right back to greece. moments ago hearing from mr. varoufakis for his desire to get to june 5. a weaker canada $1.2368. brendan: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am brendan greeley with tom keene. in london, a former trader is in court this morning. he is the first person to face trial for allegedly libor waiting. -- for a legend libor rigging. ryan chilcote is live. ryan: he is accused of conspiring with other bankers to effectively manipulate libor, to rig libor rates. the indictment includes eight counts going back to allegations that he did this as far back as 2006 and right up through 2010.
the first one was at ubs, then at citigroup. his name is tom hays, he is 35 years old. he was charged about three years ago, but today is his first day in court, and the trial began about 2.5 hours ago. it has been interesting so far. brendan: ryan, banks just paid 4 billion pounds in fines for manipulating the foreign exchange market. now we are moving back to libor, an earlier allegation for which they also paid fines. what is the future of unraveling the human trials? if we are looking at this guy on trial, is anyone else going on trial as well, any more actual human beings? ryan: yes many, in fact, are supposed to go on trial. we cannot talk about all of it because of restrictions on reporting. we cannot run afoul of contempt of court in the u.k. they are specific about what we can say, but there will be more trials. what i think is different about
this, brendan, is the banks have paid a lot in fines for libor. $9 billion. it is not just fx. libor has been a big issue. it remains a material one just look at deutsche bank earnings from a month ago. this is the human aspect of it, i guess. there was a big public outcry, remember, when we all learned about libor and about the idea that people may have been rigging it for their own gain. there has been a lot of pressure on prosecutors and regulators to go after individual traders, so this is sort of the beginning of that process. brendan: ok ryan chilcote in london. thanks, ryan. tom: with us this morning, peter orszag. he is known for precision of thought and the nuances and dissensions of any given statement. how about this -- there is inequality, looking at the research says not so fast, maybe it is company to company inequality. this is a fascinating idea that
inequality is about apple versus a more monday and corporate structure. peter: yeah, so i think we have paid far too little attention to firm level behavior what drives firms. we have seen something like 2/3 of the rise in ways inequality is average pay of firms has diverged as opposed to within firm -- tom: apple versus mcdonald's. anybody at appleworks more -- makes more than anybody at mcdonald's. peter: exactly. returns of capital have also diverged. in the 2000's, 14%. a huge change. tom: i am thinking three years ago, the basic idea is the computer, my friends frenemy or enemy? at apple, they can peter is my friends, at mcdonald's, maybe my enemy. how much of that is just about the computer being my friend or
enemy? peter: the computer is a big driver, i.t. investment, but the puzzle is that we continue to pour money into information-technology increasingly in software as opposed to hard work, yet it is not showing up in the macrolevel, aggregate productivity numbers. tom: do you agree with carter that a liberal arts education is valuable today, or should everybody code? peter: there is no reason we cannot do both. tom: thank you. [laughter] no, the answers you have got to do both. the idea when you do to apple there are six people who got their just writing code, everybody else is well-rounded. brendan: i would also say one of the things we learn from silicon valley is there is a feeling -- a ceiling to which you can do if you can only code. the others are the ones who can corral a bunch of coders and give them a job to do and say how that job fits into the economy. that is much more broad than managing a database.
"bloomberg surveillance." futures -2 . brendan: 100 million passengers, that is why ryanair hopes to accomplish by march of 2016. that may not be too hard as the airline just boosted full-year passengers to a little over 90 million. stephanie ruhle is with us. you have got the ceo of ryanair with you, michael o'leary, on "market makers." stephanie: customers love to hate ryanair, they complain about it, worst service ever but it is the largest discount carrier in europe, and guess what? more and more people are playing them. he said i'm going to bring in a holder generation of customers, and remember, this is europe. back 25 years ago when you were backpacking your way from france, to switzerland, down to
italy, you are taking the train. guess what? it may have been fun, but it was not super nice will sell more travelers are saying they do not need great customer service. they want it, but they are not willing to pay for it. brendan: in defense of the train and the backpacking, it has its charms will stop it is fun to meet people on the train. tom: are you the guys who quoted lord byron going across? brendan: and i brought keats with me going to ireland. [laughter] but he invented this model. that is what is so amazing. he created the model that all other carriers in europe are desperately trying to copy. stephanie: you see spirit airlines, you see southwest taking a page. not nearly as hard-core, there and say -- dairre i say brutal, as ryanair. peter, have you ever flown ryan? peter: i have not. stephanie: if you had awful
customer service -- peter: short flight. brendan: i have a question. now that we have all the cheap flights, this completely changed europe. is the european economy has it been changed by the low-cost flights that ryanair invented? peter: it is still the case that cross-border flows of both people and goods are not where it should be. tom: in washington, it is going to cost you $200, $300, $400 $500 round-trip. stephanie: if you are going to the plane about the price to get from new york to do you see, it is not just the delta shuttle. if you take the train, the train is pretty expensive. tom: round-trip, june 3 $150 dublin to rome. how do they do that? stephanie: volume. i will be sitting down with the one and only michael o'leary today on "market makers." you do not want to miss it. tom: we need something like
that. poor people cannot go -- stephanie: it is the walmart model. brendan: also, you see the advertised price. stephanie: i played scrabble over memorial day weekend, and i do not think that word was in there. brendan: opacity. stephanie: if you're going from london to paris, you do not need big luggage. brendan: stick around, stephanie will be speaking to michael o'leary next on "market makers." ♪
tom: good tuesday morning everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." let's get to top tuesday headlines with vonnie quinn. vonnie: good morning. bucking the trend on puerto rico's on spirit goldman has quadrupled its stakes in little more than a year. it held about $1.3 billion worth. most of the biggest holders of puerto rico bonds have been cutting their stakes. and twitter has held off to buy -- for more than $1 billion. the talks started earlier this year. sources say they are now sold. flipboard has more than 300
million users and the ceo who could be a candidate to replace twitter ceo dick costolo. a first in men's college lacrosse. denver won the ncaa championship with a 10-5 win over maryland. denver's coach won six national titles at princeton. those of the top headlines. tom: they're a good. brendan greeley is our lacrosse experts here. brendan: one of the things you see is a lot of east coast talent moving out west. colleges are picking it up on the west coast and in colorado, where it is immensely popular, are doing recruiting in maryland, and up date new york on long island where people urged to play. tom: the charm is there is no after after-college lacrosse. it is not like hockey where you have europe -- brendan: lacrosse is like college football was maybe 70, 80 years ago. it is everything. there is nothing afterwards.
tom: there it is. college across lacrosse with brendan greeley. how about greece continuing forward? headline by headline this tuesday morning. of course, steph and erik will look at charter buying time warner cable. we will do that across the day, here at bloomberg. small business lending, one of their themes this morning, i believe they have an interview with the ceo of ryanair as well. look for that coming up. nothing more than smoke, we must be talking america's debt and deficit. politicians of all persuasions continue to cut level. they maintain, nondefense discretionary spending avoid at all costs tough defense and nondefense nondiscretionary items. stay with us. order orszag holds two degrees from the london school of economics. he is the former director of the cbo. peter: smoke and mirrors? tom: peter, guys like you should
be taking a massive victory lap. our deficit is 2.9% of gdp. did you do it, or did a better economy do it? peter: it is a combination of things. little known -- long-term projected that have come down substantially. it has been cut in half since 2010. tom: do you trust that data? peter: it is uncertain, but the point is everybody out there said we were on a completely unsustainable course. revisions over the past five years have been positive partly due to the economy, but that was not unexpected. what was expected with the massive slowdown and medicare and medicaid cost. that is a big driver in the improvement of our long-term investment. brendan: "bloomberg businessweek" wrote an article coming from think tanks they all agree, no matter what, don't touch social security. is that fight over?
peter: for now it is over. we should be putting our emphasis on continuing the deceleration in health care. there is a little bit of evidence that medicare's ending is starting to take up a little bit. we need to knock it back down before that trend reverses. that it would be the most important thing we could do. brendan: of the sermon on the formal care act, how to do this how to bearing bring down spending, which one has borne the most fruit? peter: a combination of digitizing and then changing the way the doctors and hospitals are paid. moving toward c4 value seems to be working, getting reductions in readmission rates, production in hospital rates. if you create incentives for doctors and hospitals to produce better value care, they will. tom: have a moment of alan greenspan lecturing on the country. is there an appropriate deficit?
2% inflation for the fed. is there a 1% of said to gdp? peter: there is not an optimal deficit. tom: differential equation -- peter: there isn't very, but in practice -- what we want to avoid is an honest that unsustainable course. tom: we have succeeded. peter: for now. brendan: in 2001 when alan greenspan gave testimony to the house -- do not let me have a surplus. what an amazing -- peter: that just shows how uncertainties projections are, which is why cost is warranted and we will be doubling down -- tom: you have worked for a democrat president, but i will call you relatively unbiased. what will you listen for from candidates in the will fiscal? peter: the most important thing is how you could possibly get any important legislation through a congress that will likely be divided.
that is the core policy challenge of our time. the specifics i will be listening for, but if you just go out with a proposal that appeals to one side or the other and has no hope of getting through congress, then it is all just rhetoric. brendan: we can get things through that everybody agrees on. everybody says we should reform the corporate tax code -- peter: but there is no agreement on what that suggests. everybody else wants someone else's tax cuts to be cut back in order to provide an overall tax break. brendan: infrastructure spending and performing the corporate tax code, there is a framework of a broad agreement. peter: there is an agreement on the bumper sticker version -- it is the details. what corporate tax reform are you moving toward a territorial system, or are you moving away from the territorial system? they both say orbotech to form, but they mean different things. tom: how do you respond to people who say we do not need another aircraft carrier?
give us an update on defense spending, not nondefense discretionary, but actual defenseless ending. what is your to do list there? peter: two key things have to happen. one is we need to sort out what happens to entrance, the number of troops we have. tom: the body count. peter: body count. that is the driver of basically 2/3 of the defense budget. no further than the island dispute with china where the rhetoric is speeding up. there are a lot of threats out there in the world. we are on a path or under the discretionary cap we will have to significantly curtail the number of troops we have. the second is -- what kind of investments are we making? moving into unmanned aircraft and even unmanned it naval hships, for example. that is a big transformation. we have to make sure that we are not buying equipment that worked 15 years ago and of fighting the future war. tom: thank you, peter orszag, he
is with citigroup. vonnie quinn is here. this is a huge response. vonnie: maybe the way to solve this question is with multiple choice, but we asked everyone -- is cable consolidation good or bad for the consumer? so here's our first answer -- very bad. i stopped paying for cable years ago. it was easy to hijack off my neighbors internet. [laughter] brendan: there is actually something behind that. what we are paying for is the connection fee when what we should be paying for is the volume of the data used. equities, bonds, currencies, commodities vonnie: uh-oh, don't even go there. that is another debate. brendan: isn't it a coincidence. vonnie: i like this one though -- tv is like giving birth to a baby.
tv no longer needs the umbilical cord. if you just had a baby, one at that be amazing? brendan: you cannot cut the cord. you need the course in your -- you need the court in your house to get the internet. this is my agenda. i have the unfortunate history of having been a telecoms reporter. i am assessed with this word fcc chairman wheeler is speaking right now -- sorry he released a statement -- it is not want to be enough for an absence of -- it has to be someone watching the regulatory effort of that merger. vonnie: i will be watching durable goods orders, expecting to be down .5%, and new home sales were up. tom: case-shiller as well. some of the data is a little bit better here in the last few days. it is not the same for greece. i am looking at greece, and of course headlines coming up in the middle of the show this morning. maybe lesser today, but i would look right into tomorrow as we migrate to yanis varoufakis'
bethany: -- stephanie: you are watching market makers at our new time. eric: john malone is a busy man. stephanie: both sides wait for the other side to blank. erik: we will be speaking to michael o'leary on the company's profits and plans for the future. stephanie: how was your weekend? vacation, no traffic for you. a lot lacrosse, beach time, not enough sunscreen on my kids. you know memorial day weekend, you have a long sleeve t-shirt on and a baseball hat. i did not make a good choice. erik: