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tv   On the Move  Bloomberg  May 27, 2015 3:00am-4:01am EDT

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for island and getting aer lingus. dax futures up by 23 points. yesterday was a day of losses. caroline market has your market open. caroline: it was rattled yesterday. the good news was bad news. the usa data not looking too positive. everyone is aware that it rate hike could be back on the agenda. we are starting to see things pull back today. in the -- mp moving forward, reclaiming some of yesterday's losses. we are looking pretty much flat at the moment. belgium is also up. the dax is up .2%. we have the g-7 kicking off
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hijacked by greece again. you have all the key officials. the ecb, the eu, leaders and certainly financial leaders of key economies, be it germany, be it france. are they going to have to force greece onto the agenda? germany wants it very much to be focused on broader topics and sadly i think/greece will -- i think greece will dominate that agenda. the dollar got its mojo back. the euro picking up .3% against the dollar. we have the canadian central bank meeting. 124.03. keep an eye on the bank of canada meeting. we could see a further cut later in the year so says bnp
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paribas. you see money moving in the so-called payments yesterday as we saw the potential concern from u.s. rate hikes. we have money coming out of germany and u.s. debt as well. if you look at the 10-year money going into the periphery. italian down by some three basis points overall. keep an eye on your bond markets. i would to get into specific stiocks. you talked about iag. up 1% at the moment. after six months of waiting we see the irish government has given the green light to the government stake in aer lingus being bought by iag. it looks like that extra hurdle of getting pushed through has
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put iag that much higher. this is the retailer. big presence for the united states. the laces for these two companies are meant to be combining up by 1.5%. no news on m&a. investors want to hear it was a more clarity on that deal. u.s. sales looking flat relatively weak, coming in less than expected. they are having to put more money into promotions. they have competition in the u.s. we have the exclusive interview of general holiday -- generale's chief executive. positive economic position and
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their cash flow looking good as well. back to you guys. jonathan: after a day of losses a little bit of a rebound in the market this morning. the dax up .2%. we are going to athens for the latest on the g-7 meeting and a conversation on greece. and we bring it back to the u.k.. prime minister david cameron setting on his agenda for the queen's speech. the action is an server -- in zurich, where officials have rated eight hotel containing fifa officials. joining us is derek. we are joined in the studio by mark barton and ryan chilcote.
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story and more details coming through for the morning. derek: we know that a u.s.-led investigation has seen swiss police enter the five-star hotel where the fifa executive committee worth sleeping comfortably in their beds, having no idea what was taking place. a few of the senior foot all officials were taken under arrest in for questioning by swiss police, which is remarkable what we have been discussing over the past several years when it comes to fifa. people have said, why isn't anything happening? it appears something happened today. jonathan: just looking ahead, this comes at quite a time for the general election and a moment of speculation. what could it mean for the elections? tariq: it is no coincidence this
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has happened to or three days before the election for two reasons. this is the only time where all of fifa's membership, the 209 members, the executive committee, the whole jamboree is in one place at the same time. if we look at some of the people getting arrested, they come from different parts of the world. this is an opportunity for the police to swoop and make an arrest at one moment. the other part is an opportunity for grandstanding by the authorities in a way that is a very public scenario right now. we had in zurich the world's media already there. they appear to be set for blateter's coronation on friday. it is high-profile stuff.
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these are the two reasons quite happen. looking at the election on friday, i guess it is up in the air. fifa have not bowed to pressure in the record when -- bowed to pressure. when blatter was reelected, the english fa president said this is not a time to have a fifa election. we must let all this noise outside. fifa would have none of it. most of the fifa members jeered the english for making such a statement and bnlatter was arrested. jonathan: let's bring in ryan chilcote and mark orton. you have to do with -- mark barton.
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ryan: you mentioned that the coronation of set bladder -- s epp blatter is on friday. they encouraged the delegates not to reelect blatter as he has been a staunch supporter of russia hosting the 2018 games. putin met blatter and said any politicians calling for russia to not host the world cup in 2018 should just a home instead of making these calls. the conversation about russia this far has been russia's role in ukraine and that is why pressure should not host the 2018 world cup and the other part is the sanctions that this would give russia and economic lifeline.
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there has been some criticism of russia on ethics grounds. it began when russia was selected. it has been pretty muted. it's unclear what this will mean for russia. you heard the point made that fifa would change course at this time. jonathan: this presidential election, and in many ways things have not changed. as the volume been turned up? mark: i remember back to 1998 and set latter one election and even then there were -- and sepp blatter one. it is sepp blatter versus prince al hussein of jordan. he is the son of the late king
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hussein. nobody gives him a chance. does it change things now? blatter has been celebrated what he did for fifa's finances. nevermind the reputational damage. there have been a whole load of scandals. i consider foreign our integral about scandals. investors and fifa members, of which there are 209, all of which will be present in zürich will look at the finances. since blatter took over in 1998 finances have blossomed. the world cup is a money-generating machine. revenue from four years before the world cup through the world cup, 5.8 in dollars. every single member association gets a 250,000 pound annual grant on top of a $500,000
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bonus. jonathan: that is the issue, mark. money talks, as you say. the last 12 months the biggest issue have been bond shifts. mark: and the man who preceded sepp blatter taught him how to win elections. don't focus on germany. focus on the cayman islands. focus on montserrat. their vote is equal to brazil. if you focus on africa, focus on the caribbean, it is far more worthwhile for your cause trying to be reacted then missing on england, which is the blatter needs, who is vocal in his criticism. ryan: i think you will hear the russians in the next couple of days say this is on behalf of the americans because they lost out for the 2022 world cup. mark: the u.s. was one of the
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countries locked out. ryan: it was down the tubes in the final vote. bill clinton went there. it was really high-profile the campaign to win that world cup in 2022 and it did not go anywhere. you will hear the russians and a lot of the other naysayers will say this is just the united states unhappy with that decision, using its legal power and global policing capability to try to undo that. mark: just on the sponsors there are six main sponsors. coca-cola is one of them visa is one of them. visa has said it is gravely concerned about how migrant workers have been treated in the building of the stadium for the qatar world cup. adidas has stated similar concerns after the sale of world cup 2018 two russia and 2020 22
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qatar. they do benefit the sponsors. that is why they have been under fire. we will be hearing more from the likes of coca-cola today. we will be hearing from visa. will we hear from amsterdam, which relies solely on football is the 1970's for the success? jonathan: we will be bringing them to you live on bloomberg. mark barton, ryan chilcote thank you very much. the greeks are set to steal the stage in dresden as the g7 convenes. we are in athens with all the details. ♪
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jonathan: good morning and welcome back to "on the move are co-i'm jonathan ferro joining you live from london. let's bring you up to speed with some of the top stories. british airways owner iag has received backing from the irish government to proceed with its 1.4 billion euro takeover of aer lingus. the stocks are both higher this morning. stanley fischer said policymakers will consider global growth as they begin to raise interest rates. the federal reserve vice chairman said the world economy
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may falter. according to a spokesperson in washington dc, federal reserve chairman janet yellen plans to skip this year's gathering of economists and policymakers. the topic is dynamics in monetary policy. a spokesperson said she will participate from time to time in the future. finance ministers and central bank chiefs of the g7 nations to send unprecedented a. -- descendent on dresden today. they will likely eclipse all of us. hans nichols is in berlin. vasillis is in athens. hans, greases the topic people will be talking about. hans: that is right. we heard how jack lew plans to press his european counterparts
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and warn about the unpredictability about a potentially disastrous event in greece if they default. yesterday, yanis varoufakis insisted greece would make the 300 million euro payment to the imf. it was contingent to the idea that they would have a deal and get fresh cash with which they could actually make that payment with it is a circular argument from the greeks. at the same time you had a german official saint that germany is confident that an imf payment will be made. they think talks and progress can proceed from there. we do not have a whole lot this morning on which to hang optimism or pessimism. everyone is sorting out these comments. we will see where the day takes it when everyone arrives in dresden in a few hours. jonathan: bacillus in athens.
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do we expect anything groundbreaking from the ecb today? vasillis: athens expects greece to be mentioned. the brussels group is where the group is at the moment. there seems to be little convergence at the talks right now. this seems to be convergence on the sales tax but that is it. it is not served by its creditors at the moment. we need an agreement by the end of the week with a deadline would fourth by greece and its creditors expires. i don't think anything groundbreaking will happen. they will review as stocks are continuing. some little, if any, increase the amount because the positing has slowed in the last weeks
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it looks like there is a bare minimum of the posits that the system has right now. the next wednesday after we have this deadline expired on the brussels talks if we do not have a top-level agreement by then were a clear-cut -- or a clear-cut announcement by all sides in the negotiation that there is a deal down the line, i think that is where the ecb will say that maybe it is time we increase the tax on the greek banks' collateral. jonathan: that could have a big increase on the market. there he think of blackrock said greece could be less disastrous than making sessions. he sounds like the leader of the grecian government. hans: this is an interview from into a british newspaper.
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he says if you make exceptions for greece what that will mean for the pan-european project. mr. fink once to see certainty, decisiveness, and that was the word he used for if you have some sort of exception for greece, an extraordinary case, what happens with spain? what happens with italy? it is what you hear somewhat privately from german officials that you need to to think about the overall german product. the finance ministry may be in one spot on this, what a certain point there is a question of at what cost the rescue and keep greece in the euro? that is weighing not just on german officials and other officials mines, but also on the minds of pretty big asset managers. jonathan: hans nichols, thank you very much. we are joined by mark burgess, the chief investment officer at columbia and needle
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investments. great to have you on the show. you look at your portfolio. at what point does the situation in greece make you look at your portfolio and say i need to shift things around. tariq: i think there is a -- mark: i think there is a specific risk with greece and it is inevitable given with the moving parts. it will put pressure on the euro and the system. i think the european central system could withstand greece's exit of the euro. i don't think it would ultimately be a disaster. i think what is damaging is the continuing uncertainty about what they may or may not do. for everyone's sake, i think closure would be best. jonathan: for you as an investor what point do i have to stop tradeing the euro? -- stop trading the euro?
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whatever the euro does. when do we shake the shackles of the correlation across assets? mark: what you have to do is come back to absolute valuations and look back through history. compare valuations with how they have look in the past. when you do that, you can justify looking at equities. there is growth, dividend yields are attractive. we have seen a big uptick in m&a. we have to return to absolute valuations and they just about justify it. jonathan: where other violations better? we talk about europe and the u.s.. i know you like japan, but isn't japan just reading dollar-yen? as that changed? mark: that is one of the reasons that the japan market has gone up so much, the currency. there is change going on in japan. there is an increasing focus on return of equity and generally
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more shareholder-friendly positions. shareholders are low and it feels that slowly but surely japan is getting catalysts. jonathan: comments from stanley fischer. in some ways i found them quite bizarre. at the moment, the nervousness around the initial interest rate hike has been replaced by being somewhat comfortable with the fact it could be a shallow path. it is not a fact, it is an outlook. how can these guys be so confident when the rate hike will be shallow when they don't even know if they will raise rates? mark: there is a very strong desire amongst authorities to test the system and get a rate rise out of the way and see help markets react. if you look at the underlying economic fundamentals, unlike previous rate cycles it does not feel like there is a big pressure on rates. i would expect rates to be moved gently and slowly.
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that is unlike how it has been in the past. there is a strong desire to see how the system withstand the first one. jonathan: it is like a pendulum. if look at the u.s. surprise index versus the european one, europe is doing great, the u.s. is not doing so well. the story of the last month is europe and the data are not impressing. the u.s. data in the last week starting to rise. are you bullish u.s. economy and are you bullish u.s. equity markets on the back of that? mark: the u.s. economy looks well-set, although it is very difficult to disentangle in the short-term the effects of an other unusual winter. the u.s. looks well set. for europe, we have a fall in the euro and a gain. u.s. equities have performed very well. they are facing a dollar
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headwind which is undermining translation profits. valuations are pretty high. i think the u.s. may not get interrupted for some time. jonathan: mark burgess, you're going to stay with us. prime minister david cameron cents his legislative agenda at the queen's speech later today. we will be joined by john longworth after the short break. as we had to the break, a quick check on the equity markets. two days of losses for the dax. a comeback today. the ftse 100 in london up almost 100 points. it was a weaker euro for three straight days. we are at $1.09. dollar-yen, a july 2007 high as of yesterday. we are dead flat at 123.00. wti at $50 a barrel.
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[baseball crowd noise] ♪ ♪ [x1 chime] ♪ ♪ [crowd cheers] oh! i can't believe it! [cheering] hi, grandma! ♪
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jonathan: welcome back to "on the move." i'm jonathan ferro. 30 minutes into the trading day. let's see how things are shaping up. the ftse 100 up 29 points, .4% higher. the dax is up 31 points. .27% higher. a quick check of the euro. the weaker euro a story over the past couple of days. stronger euro, weaker dollar across the board today. dollar-unit 123.00 flat. can your bonds, you'll is pretty
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much unchanged. -- 10 year bonds, yields pretty much unchanged. caroline: i am sticking on a green theme and looking at those leading the charge in the stoxx 600 top of the leaderboard, or design. it is being upgraded by ubs. the reason is the stock growing because of confidence in the organic market. it was based on the anticipation of slowing markets. they say we are reorienting things. they are thinking about agriculture antibiotic animal replacements, animal products enhance-yield corn without enzymes. his technical stuff but one of the best movements.
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imperial tobacco. they are getting the thumbs-up to buy assets at last. they get their hands on some u.s. cigarette and e-cigarette brands being sold off by reynolds. they are having to sell certain assets and imperial tobacco is taking a chunk of them. it will take winston ,kool, salem, and africa. imperial thinks they could put up earnings per share 50%. iag, an m&a story. it is closer to getting its hand on aer lingus? the government says yes. the next big one is ryanair. jonathan: let's turn our attention to the u.k.. today is the state opening of parliament. the queen will make her speech
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following david cameron's may 7 election. if you don't live in the u.k. you might not get significance of this reach. give us some details. >> this is the government's chance to set out its mission statement. the queen's speech has more significance after an election. we have the first majority in quite some time. david cameron's chance to set out what his priorities in in the government will be for the next five years. jonathan: what kind of issues can we expect them to outline? is the eu agenda going to be at the top? svenja: absolutely. the eu referendum is going to take top billing. he is also going to balance that with more domestic concerns. we may see them pledge to enshrine into law that they are not going to raise certain taxes.
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the other part of the manifesto that many make noise about when it was introduced was this housing bill, the extension to the right to buy which would force associations to sell homes to certain tenets. that is likely to cause some controversy because they are members of the labor party. jonathan: thank you for joining us and out lanning -- outlining it. let's bring you mark burgess cio at columbia threadneedle investments. if you are not in the u.k., you probably don't care about the queen's speech. if you are an investor and looking at the situation the rally we had in equity, is that rally just a -- i'm relieved -- or is it going to carry on for a while? mark: there is clearly a huge amount of uncertainty about which shaped the government might take. the fact that we don't know the coalition has put the fed under some uncertainty.
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the issue looms large. if we are going to bring forward the referendum, that is a good thing. i think the u.k. economy looks in good shape. jonathan: yet the election on one hand, the potential for britain to leave the eu. what are the chances you think of that happening? on one side the election outcome was ok. monetary policies fine. you have a plan folding into that. mark: it is looking ok. jonathan: mark burgess does not like those bonds. mark: no, we do not. jonathan: what are the characteristics of tilt that you like -- guilt that you like? mark: we think that inflation is very contained. public finances look in better shape than they do in many other countries.
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if you own mostly and bond markets, we think you are ok. jonathan: you look at the ftse 100 or the ftse 250? the ftse 250 with the big post-election story. the ftse 100 not so much a u.k. story. what have you been buying? mark: the ftse 100 gets you exposure to a lot of things where you could see things getting earnings downgrades. materials mining electricity things exposed to slow global growth. we have seen strong growth in the u.k. relative to other markets. it is much more domestically exposed. jonathan: did you buy more u.k. selection? mark: no. at the headline level the earnings are unexciting after being led by energies materials, and the mining sector. equities are doing pretty well. we have taken a little money out of it. jonathan: sterling. i believe you just said it was a
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fairly. if i am anticipating a stronger pound, where do i play that in u.k. space? mark: it is about staying domesticly, i think. the international sectors are going to be impacted by an inability to invest in europe as the euro weakens, but the dollar will get stronger as a trade-off. jonathan: you don't like government bonds. the bond proxies that have been played out over the last 12 months or so, the likes of utilities, is safe to say you don't like them either? mark: with low bond yield, that forces investors to look for yield another asset classes. one has to look at where they come from and consider how they might perform. the bond market is pretty volatile at the moment but the trend is the rising yield. that will put pressure some of the bond proxies over the last two or three years.
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jonathan: mark burgess, cio at columbia threadneedle's investments. iag gets an all clear signal for its acquisition of aer lingus. ♪
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jonathan: good morning, and welcome back to "on the move." let's get back to the u.k. and get a business view on the queen's speech from john
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longworth, director at the chambers of commerce. i read your open letter to the prime minister and featured was the referendum. the debate seems to have shifted. when shall we do it question mark the view at the moment is we should bring it forward. do we share that view? john: we think it should be held as soon as practical to reduce the level of uncertainty and the period of uncertainty. it depends on what the prime minister thinks is the right time. if we do it in 2016, great. jonathan: what is practical? john: what is practical when the promised or thinks he has a reform agenda to bring to the people of the u.k. colleagues want no further explorations. we need to look at our relationship with europe. very important for the business community. jonathan: there is across europe a fatigue with the word reform.
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here we talk about reform eu and benefit tourism. the word kind of means nothing beyond that. he can't do anything without a free movement of people. what kind of reform do you want to see? john: our businesses are clear about red lines of reform. what does it mean to be the u.k. in a european union when all decisions are made for and by the eurozone? european nations can marginalize the u.k. and damaged the economy in europe. sorting out the decision making process in europe is one of the key things are members want. they also want a widening and deepening of the single market. i was in brussels a few weeks ago and the commission was telling me -- i actually got three notifications a day, 1008 year, of regulations cutting across the free movement and the
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free movement of services in europe have not even started out. jonathan: a lot of red tape discuss. -- red tape to discuss. a lot of debate around talent acquisition. john: we think the matter needs to be settled. there is no question that businesses need access to labor and the best talent. for the growth of the u.k. economy, that has been the case. in terms of keeping a stable country for economic growth, social code he's in, there are 500,000 under-25 employed in u.k., all of those things require a new relation based on settlement and immigration. perhaps a point system. the eu could decide to allow the u.k. to do that. third countries could be applied towards the eu.
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it is tricky. jonathan: there was a big debate about the labor market in the country. i'm not sure the debate has gone away, really. a lot of people are still talking about that, that the economic recovery has not gone through for a lot of evil. for me, no one brought up the problems that europe has right now. they need a market more like the u.k.. would you also think that? john: we have burdens the u.k. has applied such as the directive around agency workers, those sorts of things that businesses hope would be reformed in the d regularity area. the businessman says deregulation is the top of his agenda.
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10 billion pounds in the u.k. economy was generated by regulations from brussels. jonathan: you are calling for an export resolution. -- revolution. it sounds very grand. how does the government deliver? john: we have a massive problem in terms of rebalancing the economy. we have a massive trade deficit, particularly with the eu and we have a current balance that is unstable. we have to tackle this problem and having a revolution export means having access to finance for businesses so they can have the confidence to export, the hand-holding they need to enter new markets and next for the first -- and export for the first time. some of our continental rivals do and in some places the u.s. it is very important. jonathan: cameron speaks later
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today. parliament will debate what ever is in the queen's speech. may an important one for the businesses that you were percent is what happens on threadneedle street. when carney made a speech around 2013 when he talked about 15% of bank loans are linked to bank rates. are there balance sheet prepared for interest rate hike? john: as you know, it is always when the recession ends that the pickup begins that businesses start to go bust. imagine a starving man gorging himself on food and not having the capacity to cope with it. we have to have the capital capacity to fulfill them. access to funds is a big one for u.k. access to finance is critical. jonathan: --
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john: having an interest rate hike is not a good idea anytime soon. jonathan: why not? john: a lot of businesses will depend on not having high interest rates. and super spending is hot dependent on that. -- consumer spending is the and and on that. jonathan: we have seen a base rate hike of six scented points. should we have seen that? john: it is a bit of a red herring there are probably businesses out there that should not survive but the vast majorities going through the recession, put workers on short time, they are able to grow again and are getting order. what they need is reasonable rates to be able to survive rowe, prosper. jonathan: john longworth, thank you for joining us. let's check in on the shares of aer lingus and iag.
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we talk about what is going on with these two after the break. ♪
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jonathan: good morning and welcome back to "on the move." i'm jonathan ferro's talk airlines. . the irish government has agreed to sell its stake in aer lingus to iag. dara, what did iag give the
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island that approved the sale? dara: what we saw at the end of last year was an indicative bid of iag and what they offered is a five-year deal to keep the state between ireland and london. that was not enough for the government. there has been a guarantee. those guarantees our now at seven years and that has been the government the comfort level to recommend this bid. jonathan: what is next? ryanair, are they willing to do the same thing here? dara: for the three key things we see today, the first is a vote in parliament. it looks like it will go through easy. the second is a press conference at 11:00 in dublin. the key thing is ryanair.
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iag says it will not do a deal if it does not sell its 30% stake in ryanair. we are hoping for news from michael o'leary today. jonathan: great to have you with us this morning, dublin bureau chief. i want to get the view from one of the authorities involved in the deal. we are joined on the phone by the irish transportation minister paschal donohoe. minister donohoe: good morning. are we live? jonathan: we are live. you expect ryanair to do the same thing that the irish government has done? minister donohoe: what we have done is we looked at what our interests are as a country, we look at what our interests are for our shareholders and on the basis of that we made our decision. what is the right long-term decision for aer lingus?
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i'm sure ryanair will make their own mind up. jonathan: as far as you are concerned for the irish people what was the proposal that took it for you? minister donohoe: the fact that we secured a longer guarantee relationship usage. it is a seven-year guarantee that we do not have at all at the moment. an indefinite nature of the guarantee that we get exposed to it. further, the plans and objectives of iag outline for aer lingus, the creation of new jobs, transplanting services and operations in europe have given us the confidence that this is the test possible environment -- best possible environment to sustain growth in the long-term. jonathan: how important was willie walsh's role in getting this? minister donohoe: this really isn't a lot about personality. there have been a lot of
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different individuals involved in this over a few months. we looked at one of the policies from the national aviation point of view and looked at aer lingus long-term competition for the country. that is how we made the decision. jonathan: a final question for you. when will parliament vote and do you expect any political problems from here on? minister donohoe: i expect it will pass the parliament. it will be addressed and followed by a vote by tonight or tomorrow in relation to further development political or otherwise, i'm sure this is a fast-moving industry that has consequences. that happens in a political life. i'm confident that we will see
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the resolution passed by a very strong majority within our parliament in the next couple of days. jonathan: paschal donohoe, great to have you on, the transport minister of ireland that is what we are watching this morning. and: 30 in london it is the queen's speech. -- at 11:30 is the queen's speech. later in the day the gene seven will -- g7 will talk liquidity assistance for greece. monday, two days of losses for the dax. the dax is up .1%. the ftse 100 in positive territory still, but only up by .25%. losses were the theme yesterday. we come back a little today. switching it up to the fx market. one euro stronger this morning.
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.4%. a weaker euro the story three days preceding that. a weaker dollar across the board this morning. dollar-yen moves lower by .1%. yesterday, 123. in july 2007 high for dollar-yen. the german bond pretty much doing nothing. wti, $58 a barrel up 1% this morning. in the meantime if you want to talk markets on twitter i am @ferrotv. enjoy your day and good luck. ♪
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>> swiss police raid hotel in zurich and arrest several officials from fee for. the conservative government's lands for the next five years will be set out in a few hours time to pave the way for an eu referendum. welcome to "the pulse." i am francine lacqua.


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