tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg June 1, 2015 6:00am-8:01am EDT
the name of camera -- presidential fundraising. in the next hour, conversation with glenn greenwald on the patriot senator from kentucky. you have heard it before. alexis tsipras takes a phone call from miracle and -- from merkel and hollande. how come he never takes a phone call from madame lingard? are you injured or her? we speak to a navy seal. we are live from our world headquarters in new york. it is monday, june 1. i'm tom keene. joining me, brendan greeley. a lot of international relations this morning. the markets are fairly quiet. brendan: russia still, china, still. tom: we will get your brief for the week on international relations. there is other news as well. let's get to top headlines with vonnie quinn. vonnie: programs aimed at stopping terrorists have expired. for now, the national security agency can no longer collect american phone records in bulk
and search them for links to terrorists. rand paul used senate rules to slow down action on a bill that would keep the programs in place. rand paul: are we going to so blithely give up our freedom, go along and just say take it? i am not going to take it anymore. i do not think the american people are going to take it anymore. vonnie: still, rand paul admits he will probably lose this battle. the senate will likely approve a bill that extends the program. greece and its creditors are blaming each other for lack of progress in bailout talks. "le monde" in an article says that -- a german official says greece has to follow reforms before super stick office months ago. -- before tsipras took office
months ago. the country is running out of cash. john kerry's passion for cycling has landed him in the hospital. he broke his leg in a cycling accident in france over the weekend. he was flown to geneva for a evaluation and today will fly to boston for treatment. this will limit kerry's travel as negotiations with iran enter a crucial stretch. hillary clinton is still the overwhelming favorite among iowa democrats, the bernie sanders has been rising in the polls. a new poll shows clinton is the first choice of 57% of likely democratic caucus goers. sanders is 16%, three times where he was in january. vice president joe biden, who has not said he is running, is at 8%. republican governor scott walker has expanded his lead. a poll shows him with 17%.
rand paul and ben carson are next at 10%. as president joe biden continues to mourn the death of his son, beau biden, this morning. he died saturday of brain cancer. he spent a year in iraq with the national guard as a child. he survived the car accident that killed his mother and sister. beau biden was 46. tom: this was something, the news flow over the weekend across all political lines was just something. not much needs to be said. just extraordinary. the vice president facing further tragedy earlier, decades ago, with his wife. just a difficult weekend for washington. i am sure mark halperin will have more this evening. let's get a morning brief. we're waiting for intel all terra -- altera. another semi conductor deal. what is monday without another semi conductor deal?
brendan: eight: 30 a.m., personal income. not: 45, u.s. manufacturing. and we are waiting at 10:00 for construction spending. of course, that is tom's measure of animal spirit. tom: we go to the jobs report on friday. we will give you complete coverage across bloomberg television and radio to get you ready for that important work. the euro, 1.09. we churn through the data check. the dow gives you the market. 18,010 up 1%. the ruble weaker at 53.26. let's go into economics of the american economy. this is the savings rate personal spending, personal income out.
this is back to world war ii. give 10% of your personal disposable income. right, that went off a cliff. brendan: in tithing, you give it to the church. tom: there is 10% to the church of the organization, whatever. down we go to 5%, 4%. some are saying we are over saving. brendan: the wealthier you feel the more comfortable you feel not sitting. this is where the wealth effect evaporated. tom: with the financial crisis of 2007, 2008. there is a snapshot. you will get nowhere else except -- you will get that nowhere else except the bloomberg terminal. now we need to go to london. it is like one of those mismatched summer tennis matches where the ball goes back and forth and back and forth and back and forth.
we are talking about greece for greece authorities stated the case. suppress found -- tsipras phoned merkel and hollande. hans: even jean-claude juncker insisted that the imf would be part of this. part of the greek strategy has been tragically -- has been trying to cleave off the imf a little bit. he does not name it, but he calls it absurd. brendan: sometimes this whole conflict feels like a war of op-eds. there was one today from one of the architects of the euro, who says greece's negotiating -- greece is negotiating cleverly. that they have a plan b, which is to make -- hans co what you continue to
hear louder and louder, especially from the germans, is that an exit, there would not be that much contagion. you heard that from mr. nobody -- from mr. novotny. you just heard with michael brooks, a key angela merkel ally. he's such a key ally, mr. fuchs has been banned from russia. but he was in venice, so i do not think he much cares. brendan: over the weekend, the we see a rise in the probability of -- hans co we have something negative and something quite crematory from alexis tsipras. normally it is sippers who cleans up -- normally it is suppress -- tsipras who cleans up varoufakis' mess. there appears to be no daylight be feeling that between
varoufakis and alexis tsipras. tom: we need to pivot. america is pivoting to asia which is at least the zeitgeist of recent years. the zeitgeist has pivoted into a brick wall. china has an offense and defense of their agencies. u.s. secretary of defense ashton carter says their actions are provocative. dark of the united states is deeply concerned about the land and scope. the process of further militarization, as well as the potential for these activities to increase the risk of miscalculation or conflict among claimant states. tom: we will speak in this hour on ramadi, on international relations, but first we need to speak with dr. cores who represents various parts of trying to figure out what to do with china. there is an immediacy here
which you are directly involved in. state the fury of the adjacent nations as china project themselves into a new territory. >> china has grown the islands 2000 acres in the last 18 months. that is a lot of space that they have grown. they are throwing sand into these a tolls and building military airstrips on top of it. they claim it is not military but satellite information as shown two artillery pieces in range of some of the other islands. tom: who says you cannot do that? anders: china's military is way too large for any of the other countries in the region. it has to be a u.s.-japan -australia combination that would stop china from doing this. brendan: the consistent batter -- the consistent pattern is that they bill, we say they cannot do that. when does the pattern change?
anders: we see a much stronger u.s. willingness to take on china that we did not see a few months ago. i am optimistic that china -- actually, china has already started deemphasizing of it. we might see them roll back. but scarborough shoal in the philippines, which is within the 200 mile economic center of the philippines, has been occupied by china and is right next to subic bay, our very important naval base. brendan: do we take it seriously in the global sense, or is that just about the south china sea? anders: china's focused is the south china sea and taiwan. they are looking to become a global power. they are reaching into africa to pull out resources.
they want to protect those lines and they are really a throwback to 19th century international relations. that is exactly wrong. tom: subic bay was founded in 1885. it seems like something out of our history books from another time and place. are you suggesting we are going to redux tr and the spanish-american war? anders: the philippines need the u.s. as a backstop to read they need the u.s. ships there. unfortunately, years ago in the early 1990's, the philippines kicked out the u.s. and the fleet went to singapore. now the philippines immediately felt the effect of that from china when china took scarborough sure and other locations around that area. but now china is probably being rolled back as we pivot to asia. about 60% of the u.s. navy force is or will soon be in the
pacific region. brendan: as tom says, the question is always -- is it the u.s. and the u.k., or the u.k. and germany? we are going to stay on national security this morning. as tom said, quiet on the markets, meaning we can talk about the world. coming up, several spy programs are needed, according to the white house, and we ask, is america weaker or stronger this morning, right now at 6:00? tweet us @bsurveillance. and in the next hour, we speak with glenn greenwald. good morning. ♪
tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." i'm tom green, with brendan greeley. vonnie: authorities say a terrifying accident could have been worse in manhattan. a giant air-conditioning unit being listed to the top of a skyscraper broke loose and fell 28 stories. 10 people were injured. it was fortunate the accident happened on a weekend when the street was not filled with people. six of europe's biggest energy companies -- shell, bp, and four others -- are moving toward a global price on carbon. this begins before the start of u.n. climate change talks in germany. "san andreas" did better than expected on the west coast. there were fears that audiences
in earthquake zone regions would stay away. tom: come on. it was promoted like crazy. brendan: i actually read an account by a seismologist who watched "san andreas." she was relieved that more attention was being paid to earthquake safety. but she said there cannot be a chasm because if there is, then there is no slippage and there is no earthquake. tom: every fourth commercial during the stanley cup was on "san andreas." 50 million, there it is. doom and gloom. coming up on "bloomberg surveillance" more doom and gloom. the islamic state, a serious conversation this morning. we are speaking with anders corr on boots on the ground. and then shocking growth in
drones are then we look at the art of the war through the prism of the navy seals. looking forward to that. brendan: the senate came to work on a sunday but failed to extend the part of the patriot act that allows bulk phone data collection. rand paul says our liberties are slipping away per john mccain says rand paul puts a higher priority on his own ambition than the security of the nation. phil, what lapsed? phil: there are three programs that as of midnight last night or 12:01 this morning, talks came to an end. the ability to collect phone records has come to an end. folks that use burner phones, multiple phones at one time, the ability not to have to get a separate warrant for each phone. there is a third program,
wiretaps on lone wolf suspects. law enforcement is not able to identify a specific link that they can pursue. on the final 2 -- they are not actually used very often. the biggest issue has been the bulk collection. brendan: we had anders corr with us and we want to get to the actual consequences of this in a second. let's stay on the politics. this leaves rand paul alone in the republican caucus. phil: out in america, they feel like this resonates. it matters to them. it matters on the fundraising level, it matters on social media, and it matters in terms of attention. he has a megaphone and has been using the senate floor to blow that up over the last couple of weeks. the big issue right now is mitch mcconnell, the senate majority leader, his colleague from kentucky at almost a stair-off -- a stare-off with him on the
floor of the senate. brendan: a stare-off and i do not know why we do not have video. phil mattingly, thank you. we are returning to the desk with anders corr. i will ask our twitter question of the day, very straightforward given what lapsed at midnight. are we stronger or weaker this morning? anders: we are far weaker against terrorists. terrorists are targeting the u.s. to the extent that they would like to get wmds. this is a crucial program to find a needle in a haystack of the guy who wants to attack the u.s. it is very unfortunate that we have lost that capability. tom: we will have glenn greenwald with us in the next hour. bringing to light mr. snowden's accusations and facts. is glenn greenwald on the same page as rand paul?
or i should say, is mr. snowden on the same page as rand paul? anders: snowden is a traitor plain and simple. the guy is a traitor, and he has -- the quantity of harm that he has caused the united states is just incredible. brendan: what would your compromise be? what would your ideal legislation be? what oversight is needed that is not there now? anders: the bulk information gathering is geared to looking for patterns in the data statistical patterns in the data through network analysis to find that terrorist. you cannot find that terrorist unless you go through it all. and they do not care about whether you are calling your grandmother or who you are calling as a regular american. they are looking for patterns -- first, second, third order. tom: anders corr is with us as
tom: good morning, everyone. we are on a semi conductor watch. intel and altera have been dancing over the weekend. let's get to our morning must read with brendan greeley. brendan: mine comes from "the financial times," the former senior director for russia for the nsc. he writes that the problem is with russia, not vladimir putin. russia has pushed its moore's
outward as far away from possible that its borders outward, as far away as possible from its heartland. it did not stop when it reached the fence will physical borders but only when it ran into powerful countervailing states. it is a long, historical argument, russia is as russia does. whoever happens to be running russia does not make a difference. do you buy into the historical approach? anders: now, i think boris yeltsin was much more democratic then vladimir putin is. he is highly dictatorial is deemphasizing the economic in the businessmen in russia. he is strongly against the people in russia and the economy in russia and is promoting his own political future and the territorial growth of flood -- and the territorial growth of russia. brendan: so you think someone
could have succeeded boris yeltsin and created a totally different type of growth? anders: absolutely. had russia turned into a democracy, which it could have easily happened, then we would not be fighting it right now. two democracies have never fought each other in world history. that is a fact. tom: let's continue our conversation. coming up on "market makers ", jeffrey smith. ♪
extend after senator rand paul used procedural methods to delay -- senate majority leader mitch mcconnell urged the senate to keep the spy programs in place. senator mcconnell: we should not be disarming unilaterally as our enemies grow more sophisticated and aggressive. we should not be doing so is part of a campaign of demagoguery and disinformation launched in the weight of the unlawful actions of edward snowden. vonnie: edward snowden was the nsa contractor who revealed details on how information was being collected on americans. time is running out for greece. prime minister elect alexis tsipras prime minister alexis tsipras is penning his hopes on
the prime ministers of germany and france. greece must come up with economic reforms so it can come up with more bailout money before it goes into default. in italy, there was an election victory for prime minister matteo renzi. his democratic party heads on 2527 regions that helm of elections. he came on last year without winning local elections. he is trying to bolster wrasse roots support for his reform agenda. we are close to a deal in the semiconductor industry. intel is near an agreement to buy altera. shares about terra -- shares of out terra are rising. a solar plane trying to fly around even the world without a single drop of fuel is making an unplanned stop.
it will land in japan today because of bad weather. it left china on sunday for what was to be the longest leg of the journey. a five-day, 5000-mile flight. it began its journey in march in abu dhabi. tom: i know you have been watching it, vonnie. vonnie: it would add to a year -- tom: one company. really. brendan: amalgamated semi conductors. tom: let's continue this morning on international relations. last week "surveillance" enjoyed our intrepid peter cook on an aircraft carrier with the marines. it is all fine and well, but each and every military expert of all persuasions suggests there is no substitute for boots on the ground.
the cliche is being tested in iraq as iran and shia militia provide boots on the ground for the allies. anders corr is the founder of corr analytics. i read a number of smart articles over the weekend on this. can we have boots on the ground if we end up with a three-part iraq? anders: in iraq and syria, what we are seeing is a conflict and a contest for power and territory between sunni and shia . it is rarely said, but i believe that is what we are seeing. boots on the ground in that conflict right now, from an american perspective, is very tough. tom: when you study to get the eight degrees that you have, is it like the second crusade?
anders: there are very few occasions in with counter insurgency works. malaysia is possibly one of them, but most other counter insurgencies are too difficult for us. some studies out of brown university and harvard argue that we are spending -- we spent up to $6 trillion between afghanistan and -- counter insurgencies in afghanistan and iraq. if you include veterans benefits. that is a lot of money, and i do not think we have enough of it right now to be involved with boots on the ground and be effective. brendan: this is a difficult thing to tell the national security establishment in washington, that we cannot fix this. anders: we would have to go back to some military tactics from world war ii, and i do not think the american people have that kind of stomach right now. tom: i look at this as, the singular photograph of the caskets on american airlines
being unloaded four or five years ago. vonnie quinn, i think of the way a soldier comes back from the united kingdom in a casket, and the bbc follows them every step of the way. part of it is the emotion of boots on the ground. vonnie: it makes it extraordinarily real. there are all kinds of rules and regulations in the united states. i have a question about isis and isil. if they were to get further east toward the oil in syria, would there be a bigger case for putting more boots on the ground? anders: i do not think so. you have to compare the isis threat to other major threats like russia and china. we only have a fixed amount of defense dollars that weekends -- that we can spend. we were essentially unsuccessful in afghanistan and iraq in the past. we do not have as much of a dog in the fight as we do in terms of protecting eastern europe from russia, in terms of
protecting our allies in asia from china's growth. brendan: one of the issues in this presidential election is whether or not it is worth going back to the decisions that were made in 2002. is it worth looking back at our decision to invade iraq and analyzing that as a part of what is happening now in iraq and syria? anders: it is always important to know history. if you do not know history you're doomed to repeat it. in terms of f-16 pinpoint attacks on insurgents, they look great on tv and are crowdpleasers for u.s. politicians. but they really are not having an effect. tom: educate us on what does matter from a reading of history, which is the great iran-iraq war. that was a real war involving thousands of people, and that sounds like maybe where we are heading, with a three-part iraq.
anders: iran and iraq war was still a sunni-shia war, but now iraq and syria have a rapper rated -- iraq and syria has evaporated into chaos. tom: the stuff i read over the weekend, they just assume a three-part iraq. brendan: we have to move on. anders corr was talking about drones and f-16s. when we come back, it is the attack of the drones today's single best chart. global growth in the drone business. this is consumers drones. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." good morning. tom: have you flown a drone? brendan: i am terrible at it. ♪
one of 82 slides showed growth in drones. that is the subject of our single best chart. we have anders corr with us from corr analytics. it does look like growth in actual shipment is growing faster than the market size which to me hints at the fact that drones are becoming more ubiquitous and a cheaper technology. are we prepared for a multi--axis drone war? anders: the drones are a useful -- are useful for surveillance. they are useful for taking out pinpoint strikes on terrorists. many countries they are not strategic weapons. they are not going to carry major military payloads. brendan: one of the things investors have been complaining about in the u.s. is that the
faa is not moving fast enough to make these products available. do we need to change the way we look at drones commercially from a laboratory -- from a regulatory standpoint? anders: you definitely will have to see some regulation coming in to make sure they are used appropriately. tom: but it goes back to our technocracy, which is technology as a substitute for ancient and old stuff. in retail drones will be a substitute for the postal service. brendan: i disagree tom. you said that this has nothing to do with jobs. i think it has everything to do with jobs. we always know that eventually new technology sources help out and new jobs are found. tom: we go to "surveillance" real-world expertise. brendan greeley has flown a drone, right? brendan: i am really bad at it, but i am exactly too old, six
months too old to be a videogame kid. doing two-sided camera and real face view -- on one side you are looking at the drone, and the other side you are looking at a camera view, something normal brains cannot do. tom: where is the drone flyer in pakistan, in maryland? anders: sometimes in maryland. brendan: this is problematic. you have people doing these incredible missions, doing dangerous and deadly things, and then packing up and leaving and going home and having dinner with their families. there is an unanticipated consequence to that. tom: it is like technology run amok. vonnie: speaking of drones and their capacity to injure -- tom: the capacity to injure. vonnie: spanish pop star
henrique drew a heart of blood on his shirt for some unknown reason. the 12,002 attended the event -- afterwards he was flown to los angeles for treatment. he is to capture the drone and turn it on himself. it could have been worse. number 2 -- brendan: i think the faa needs to step in here. tom: thank god that was not area on a grande day -- ariana gr ande. vonnie: an american enterprise exhibition -- a bowl and a bear. tom: they should have had one-road trader. brendan: bring the keyboard back up. we still have some of this model in the office? that is the loudest, clock used keep -- clackiest keyboard.
tom: i went in with a famous surveillance magnifying glass last night. his -- his password is "mohammed loves the jets." vonnie: there is a pair of fuzzy dice as well. from one extreme to the other. tom: we congratulate mr. gross and mr. bloomberg for entering the smithsonian. vonnie: in san diego, 92-year-old harriet thompson became the oldest woman to finish a marathon to achieve completed the san diego marathon in seven hours and 24 minutes. look at her. she has raised $100,000 for leukemia in the process. she was fully made up and beautiful when giving her tv interviews at the end. brendan: finishing strong, too. tom: this is 26 miles.
brendan: 26.2, tom and how can you spend so much time in boston and not know this? tom: once i seriously thought about it, and then the thought went away. brendan: you had a gin and tonic and reconsider? tom: you have got that right. brendan: you heard it here. tom and i are going to qualify for boston next year. tom: coming up next, we have a veteran, rob roy, joining us to discuss his new book, "the navy seal: the art of war." stay with us this monday morning. monday -- vonnie quinn, brendan greeley. good morning. ♪
tom: good monday morning, everyone. let's get right to top headlines with vonnie quinn. vonnie: microsoft will come out next month with the latest version of the windows operating system. in those 10 will be released in time for the back-to-school computer season. there will be a free upgrade for those using windows seven or
8.1. casino revenue is now one-year-old. china's battle against graft and a slowing economy are keeping people away. two casinos opened in macau. a woman who cleaned out her house after her husband died dropped off the computer at a california recycling center. she did not know what she had. it was one of the original apple computers built by steve jobs and steve wozniak. it was sold for $200,000, now trying to find the woman to give her half of it. brendan: she did not even accept a receipt. she said no need. tom: let's look forward into the next hour. prices down, yields up. the ramifications for all at fixed income. an important essay per noel rabin he -- we will discuss the
challenges in europe. and then our conversation with glenn greenwald. winning a pulitzer prize for his work with mr. snowden. on a day that rand paul infuriates his fellow senators. brendan: chief petty officer rob roy spent two decades on seal team 6. he is a quiet professional, but he is here to talk about "the navy seal art of war." he is here. you were a door kicker. rob roy: yes. brendan: you were talking about the idea of the strategic corporal. what does it mean? rob roy: everybody has to be immersed into what the company
is trying to do or achieve. knowing what the outcome is for any particular -- if they do not understand it, it creates a lag or kind of a hiccup that is in combat, which costs your life. brendan: that has changed within both the navy and the marine corps. that has happened, where authorities have been moved down to corporate. rob: it is passed down. understanding what the mission is supposed to be, and you are training and everybody understands the goal of that mission. tom: so if you sit down with don barton and a bunch of bright eyed nba's -- bright eyed and ba -- mba's what would be your advice to don barton? rob: mission focus. how is that passed down, and
more importantly, how you verify that. tom: i still do not see any substitute for travel management , getting out there and talking to people face-to-face. have we gone beyond their? -- have we gone beyond there? rob: you have to talk to people to implement ideas. if you are the leader of the group, you have to impress upon them who you are and what you want. tom: there is no substitute for getting out there. brendan: it is an amazing organization that works perfectly. one of the things that you do now you work with corporations. your book is designed for a corporate audience. this is part of america's love affair with the navy seal. one of the things we see within the pentagon is the special operations budget increases as other things are getting cut back. it is a very important part of strategy for the u.s. do you worry at all that as we all come to think of the navy
seal as america's superhero, that they are then quietly, special operators, are asked to carry too much of the burden? rob: i believe that to be 100% of the truth. the more success they have, the more people want to give them. there are only so many deployments that you can do. brendan: and there is a problem training enough guys to do this. rob: correct. brendan: within the community, there is a problem with retention because they are being asked to carry so much of the burden of national security. rob: i would put it more in the line that deployment schedules are more extreme than they were a number of years ago. deployment schedules, if they are keeping them from more -- keeping them on the road for six to eight months longer at a time, it is more difficult to
recover. you have to let them recover. if your organization is driving to be successful, if you do not give them time to recover, relax, recoup, and retrain -- tom: the heart of your previous argument is that boots on the ground are tough when you are exhausted. brendan: -- anders: what do you think about the use of special operations in afghanistan and iraq? rob: you cannot win a war if the enemy does not know who you are. they have to know that you are 100% on them all the time. tom: how many navy seals are there? is that classified, or do we know? rob: it is roughly around 1800 to 2000. it is about 2000 people total,
probably about 1800 guys deployed. it is self-selection. you get a kid who wants to be in the navy because he wants to be a navy seal and does not have all the tools, you will have an 80% dropout rate because of the lack of knowledge. there is a lot of stuff on the internet or in movies, but they are 18-year-old kids trying to make decisions. tom: do you like the way you are personified in the movies today? will you -- when you sit in the theater, what do you think? rob: it is difficult to capture what seals do. it is really hard -- it is not exciting enough for people to watch on television. tom: bradley cooper is not as good as you. thank you. "the navy seal art of war." a smart, sharp look for
republican senators as he allows patriot act authorities to expire. bridges are burned in the name of presidential campaign fund-raising. in this hour, a conversation with glenn greenwald, the patriot center -- on the patriot center from kentucky. how come alexis tsipras never takes a phone call from madame lagarde? it is monday. it is international relations day. brendan: the same things that were happening are still happening. is it going to be greece and? it is always greece. tom: this is like a week, like a deadline friday. brendan: i have given up any faith and deadlines having to do with greece.
tom: we get to top headlines with vonnie quinn. vonnie: three side programs aimed at stopping terrorists have expired. the senate failed to extend them before midnight, meaning that the national security agency can no longer collect american phone records in bulk and search them for links to terrorists. rand paul used senate rules to slow down action on a bill that would keep the spy programs in place. senator paul: are we going to solely -- so blithely give up our freedom and say take it? i am not going to take it anymore. i do not think the american people are going to take it anymore. vonnie: rand paul admits he will probably use this battle for senators who vote to curb programs. greece and its creditors are pointing fingers and blaming each other for a lack of progress in the bailout talks. in an article for "le monde"
alexis tsipras says it is not the fault of his government. greece has to pay the imf $1.8 billion, and the country is running out of cash. john kerry posco passion for -- john kerry's passion for cycling has landed him in the hospital, breaking his leg in france over the weekend. he was flown to geneva for evaluation and will fly today to boston for treatment. this is just as negotiations with iran enter a crucial stretch. the u.s. and other world powers want to curb iran's nuclear program. hillary clinton is still the overwhelming favorite among iowa democrats. for months and it are bernie sanders has been rising quickly in the polls. a new poll shows clinton as the first choice 57% support from likely caucus goers. vice president joe biden is at
8%. meanwhile wisconsin governor scott walker has expanded his lead in the republican race in iowa. walker is shown with 17%. rand paul and ben carson our next at 10%. vice president joe biden is mourning the death of his son beau biden, who died over the weekend of brain cancer. he had been delaware's attorney general and spent a year in iraq with the national guard. he survived the car accident in 1972 that killed his mother and sister. tom: the president visited with the vice president this week and up near the observatory. brendan: that is one of the things that washington can do from all sides letting a father quietly grieve his son. at 8:30 a.m. eastern, we get data on personal income and spending. at 9:45, pmi is out.
we will find out how excited we are about buying things. we will see when they are going to do it. 10:00 a.m., construction spending numbers. tom: it has been a jumbled set of data. there is real optimism out there. i do not know if it is june. it may be september. it has really been on a mu sh to say the least. equities, bonds, commodities -- not much to talk about, the euro-, 1.09. always on the equity markets, bond prices down. it gets higher, little bear market love. often bonds lead the way. you have a respectful
remembrance on the joys. we always talk about the equity markets, bear market. how do you do you defined a bear market in bonds? >> typically as a consistent rise in yields. it has to extend over a six-month period of time. yields -- normally whenever you get a rise in yields, typically they will start to fall back down not too long after. so usually there is a strong rise initially. tom: they told me that would not happen. we have not seen that yet, have we? jim: we have not seen that yet. so far the markets are doing very constructively for bond market investors. we like to think about it as come if we get into a sustained to where yields can rise, economic data has to match.
high yields do not necessarily mean that things for the economy. but is these -- is the economy strong enough not believe not, the yields will fall back down. brendan: tom says it is like 1994. jim says clearly that was not a good time. i remember 1994 as the fall i decided to major in german literature. i have no idea what you're talking about. what is the historical comparison? tom: it is amazing how mr. greenspan adjusted to what was going on in the market. jim: i do not think it is ahead of us over the next 12 months or over the next 24 months. the question is, when the fed rakes go up, how fast will they go? brendan: is the's -- is the slow of the steps more important? jim: absolutely.
tom: the june meeting is june 17. and then july 29. vonnie: the 10 year yield is 2.12. there is no expectation for inflation on the market, is there? jim: one of the things that has been interesting on the markets is that term premium is very low. in fact, it is negative. the way we would do find it is the extra compensation an investor would want to have for going out long-term in yield or it the longer you go out in duration, the more yield you want. right now that is a negative number. people are saying they do not expect the economic rose to be very strong, and they do not expect inflation to rise quickly. they will actually pay or take more risk to buy a longer dated bond, which is a very rare and unique until a time which could correct. it could correct if we get more
sustainable data that shows consist see of growth, employment, -- that shows consistency of growth, employment, wage inflation. then you could seal yields -- you could see yields going up. brendan: let's move to europe. we hear, figuring out what the deadline is for greece -- what is your deadline? jim: my deadline is the end of june. there is a series of payments that need to come in totaling almost $1.5 billion. greece may be trying to put more time on the clock and bundle those payments to a later date. june 19 is being floated around. the fuse has been lit. brendan: it is not the imf payments due, it is the end of the possible existing eu agreement? jim: exactly. tom: dominique hawkins of georgia bank -- dominique haas of deutsche bank was here last
week. do you manage bonds every week believing in that lower terminal rate? jim: i do. right now the fed is telling us something i do not believe 3.75%. i would think if that number -- i would think that number is probably closer to 3%. if you work backwards from that and say if that is the path of short-term rates and we only get up to about 3%, what you end up doing is you get a fair value yield today of around 2%. tom: what that means is clearly a new lower terminal rate means the assumptions on tensions come in as well. they used to be a percent, then 6%. maybe the new actual assumption is 5%. vonnie: what are you doing, jim? jim: as far as the allocation
goes, we still like our carry products. we think rates will rise, but slowly. we can construct a portfolio that out carries as the rate rises so we can produce a return. rates will rise, but it is not 1994. that is the whole point. because rates are rising, it might be a bear market in bonds but you do not have to lose money in bonds. my vote would be december. tom: in the land of ellen zentner or. brendan: we will discuss the future of the patriot act with glenn ringwald, the cofounder -- with glenn greenwald. are we stronger this morning? ♪
, the liquidity timebomb. jim caron is with us from morning stanley. do you worry, given a tantrum of some level, that there is not enough liquidity out there? jim: every day. this is one thing that the imf has been talking about. tom: is wall street talking about it? jim: definitely. even the fed has mentioned this as one of the risks. tom: what kind of move is a liquidity issue? jim: it is typically a gap move that we cannot explain. how do you manage that? if that is what is in store for us in the future, you need to build in a bigger risk premium into whatever you want to buy, which means bonds and assets become cheaper. tom: monday is math-free here but the fact is we have a lot of negative interest rates, particularly in europe. do you presume that when we go from a negative rate to a
positive rate that it is a smooth process, or is that where you get your condition that leads to issues? jim: i think we get a junk condition. things typically do not move smoothly. with a temper tantrum it had over the last couple of weeks, i would argue that initially we can set a stage where yields are low, but when that comes to an end there is not enough liquidity to take on the flows for sales. tom: trying to get the boone yield lower and your -- lower and lower. brendan: there is concern about liquidity in denmark as well. as their rates drop lower, they do not know how to operate. they are having trouble holding onto their pay. jim: it effectively when we look at the markets today, bond markets have exploded in terms of overall size, volume of bonds , exponentially since 2008.
when you look at dealer liquidity, the people responsible for providing it, the liquidity has plummeted. this creates a dynamic risk in the market. the way we tried to management -- the way we try to manage this risk is to build in models that capture it so we know how to value the bonds. tom: coming up, a conversation with glenn ringwald on the ennis -- with glenn greenwald on the nsa. good morning. ♪
tom: good morning, everyone. futures -- a touch of green on the screen this first day of june. brendan: the senate came to work on sunday and failed to extend parts of the patriot act allowing all caps data collection. john mccain says rand paul is running on his own ambition than the security of his nation. phil mattingly joins us.
he has no higher priority than the security of the nation. help us understand what happened. what lapsed? phil: three programs at midnight lapsed. it is three provisions of the patriot act. section 215, the bulk collection of made a data -- of metadata. there has been an issue since edward snowden. also wiretaps on lone wolf suspects are that has never been used. that will expire. there is another one on roving wiretaps. federal law enforcement officials being able to tap into phones that terrorists use. we expect in the next couple of days it will somehow kind of be re-upped. brendan: quickly, what is the word from the white house on that this morning? phil: they are disappointed. you heard from the president.
the president made a point over the last couple of weeks to try and make this a big issue. it surprised some democrats what the president was saying. he started to make this including one of his own officials saying that this was like playing russian roulette. this sounded a lot like scare tactics, and that concerned a lot of people. the white house is disappointed and expects the senate to move quickly in the next couple of days. brendan: tom, we are going to rio now. tom: as republicans real from the intent of dr. paul, we speak with glenn greenwald, familiar with many of these stories. it is a polarizing force on what is happening in the future for spying within and without america. glenn greenwald captured a pulitzer prize for laying bare much of our spying apparatus. let me ask you the simple question this morning. is rand paul a patriot?
glenn greenwald: absolutely. at least in this case, he is. he is defending one of the core principles of the american family -- of the american founding, that the government does not spy on us unless we believe there is reason to. tom: we are working in a new technology distant from 9/11. what would be your best outcome that would appease republicans furious at senator paul? glenn: the key distinction is between mass surveillance, putting the entire citizenry under a scope of surveillance under target surveillance and monitoring only people who do bad things. there is an opportunity to pass a law that says to the nsa that you should be spying on national terrorists, and leave the rest of us alone.
brendan: is there any level of oversight that would make you comfortable with mass surveillance? glenn: mass surveillance inherently is wrong. why should the government at all be in the business of collecting data about what we as innocent law-abiding citizens do and say and the people with whom we are speaking? it is inherently corrosive to basic liberty. that said you could imagine an oversight framework that would provide some control. the problem is that the courts and the congress have proven themselves subservient to what the pentagon and the intelligence community want. they are good at capturing all those institutions, and oversight becomes a rubber stamp. if you could conceive of something in practice in washington -- but that is not working. vertigo even taking -- brendan: if you said you could imagine a series of controls that would provide oversight what would they look like? glenn: i think the core
principle that we settle on information in the 1970's, after those spying abuses of the hoover at nixon years were revealed -- they have go to a court and present evidence that the person on whom they want to spy is engaged in some kind of wrongdoing. so if you had a robust court with two sides in attendance one side arguing the case against the government, and you had some transparency to the court that operated like a real judiciary, and the nsa could only spy on people when they deserved it, that could work. tom: we had a guest on earlier who flat-out called edward snowden a traitor. that is polarizing language of this moment. where do you want this debate to be in two years? if we are that polarized in america about spying, where can we constructively be two years from now? glenn: it has moved a lot in two
years. you have public figures who came out in the last couple of months and say i was wrong about edward snowden. the same thing happen with daniel ellsberg. he is now widely regarded as a hero. the big question is surveillance, not edward snowden. this will be the first time in the post-9/11 era that we take away powers from the government rather than give them more power. that is critical. tom: can rand paul use this as a constructive political exercise? will the events of the last 24 hours benefit his campaign? glenn: yes, he is galvanizing a political debate. that is what presidential politics are supposed to be about. tom: glenn greenwald, thank you very much. i know you follow this much more. is this a seismic turning point at this moment? brendan: it is, but it is hard to disentangle.
just because i'm away from my desk doesn't mean i'm not working. comcast business understands that. their wifi isn't just fast near the router. it's fast in the break room. fast in the conference room. fast in tom's office. fast in other tom's office. fast in the foyer [pronounced foy-yer] or is it foyer [pronounced foy-yay]? fast in the hallway. i feel like i've been here before.
personal disposable income taking into account taxes. it is almost like a tithe? we save 10% of our money. brendan: i think what the church used to call a tithe we now call a nudge. tom: this goes into the arch debate -- are we saving too much which harms consumption? brendan: there are different kinds of saving, the kind that goes into retirement and then there is the saving that chokes investment. the policy is very bad in distinguishing between these two types of saving. tom: there is one part of america saving a lot because they are making a bundle. there is another part where there is no savings, whether it is retirement planning or anything else. vonnie: you have to factor gas prices in as well. a big discussion as to whether
people save or spend. tom: i brought these up to show what we had around 1980. brendan: you talk about these different kinds of savers. the wealth effect is very much people who feel wealthier. there is a difference between how wealthy you feel and how wealthy they actually are. tom: there is a saving for individuals, and that does not account for savings of the nation. was that too much economics for a monday morning? brendan: i did say the phrase that is macro economically important, for which i should be shot. tom: there are vonny: aimed at stopping terrorists, they've expired. rand paul delayed the legislation. they allowed the national security agency to collect american phone records in bulk
and search them for terror ties. senator majority leader mr. clinton connell urged them to ski spy programs in place. >> we shouldn't's arm unilaterally as our systems grow more sophisticated and shouldn't be doing so based on a campaign of demagoguery and disinformation laumpled in the wake of the unlawful actions of edward snowden. vonnie: snowden was the contractor who revealed details on how the organization was collecting information. still they are expected to pass an extension and the bill would remake the legislation for phone records. time is running out. the prime minister of cyprus is extending hopes on leaders of germany and france. tsipras on the phone with angela merkel and hollande. they must come up with more funds to avoid default. the greek are balking at making changes to labor rules and the
sales tax. in italy there was an election victory for mateo renzi who held on to five of seven regions holding local elections and came to power last year without winning a national election. renzi has been trying to bolster grassroots support for his agenda. close to another deal in the semiconductor industry. i keep checking my bloomberg here. bloomberg news reporting intel is near an agreement to buy altera. there have been reports it would be $15 billion. shares are rise drag in europe. last week it was agreed to buy broad com in a deal worth $37 billion, the largest technology acquisition ever. a solar plane trying to fly around the world without a single drop of fuel is making an unplanned stop. solar impulse 2, the name of the plane, plans to land in japan due to bad weather. the aircraft swiss pilot left china saturday for what was to be the longest leg of the journey 5,000 miles to hawaii. the long journey began in march
in abu dhabi. tom: very cool. do i understand no fuel at all. vonnie: solar. brendan: the innovation can be there if you force innovation. i'm fascinated by the idea of a carbon tax. we thought four of the majors got together and said we support a carbon tax. that's amazing. vonnie: how does it store up the sun shine? tom: i go to lindbergh, 5,000 miles by yourself. i don't care what the radio -- he probably has g.p.s. and can order ahead for pizza when he gets near hawaii. how about a data check now. equities bonds. on bloomberg radio plus. equities bonds currencies come out and the euro 109.11. depreeze is widened out a little bit and don't want to overplay that and a little tension between greece and germany in the last 20, 30 minutes. oil back near $60 american oil, weather texas intermediate. on to the next screen. if you would began the week at
13.84 and the dow above 18,000. the greek bond was 23% and the two-year piece, on 24.4% and russian ruble is a little stronger this week waiting for economic data to begin this week. brendan: i'm with tom kean. tom? tom: at the margin it appears the graduates of may and june of 2015, they have it better off than in recent years but nothing like the american graduation job creating machine of the 1960's and 1970's. the new american economy suggest a match of skills mismatched with thousands of graduates deciding which restaurant to wait tables at. joe has thought about these things, author of "unleashing the second american century." we'll talk about optimism and pessimism here in a bit but first through the half-hour, joel on some of the challenges graduates and nongraduates face. i guess i go back to the graduate plastics, you usually go in plastics and now the
angst is there's nothing to go into now. do you see that out there? joel: no i don't. i see and hear a lot of people talk about that all the time parties wherever you go, people are so pessimistic but it's unfounded. we're really at the beginning of a new age of innovation. you can see it in the sciences. you can see it in medicine. it's everywhere. and people are not paying attention. tom: did you give a commencement speech this year? joel: no. tom: let's say joel goes to tulane and gives a commencement speech, what is your message to graduates? joel: it would be to study and all this talk about automation killing jobs robots killing jobs, untrue. don't pay any attention to it. my view about robots, they're getting so much attention, robots are robin and people are batman. so the robots are going to be
the assistants all the time. they're not going to be wearing the cape. they're not going to -- tom: he has three commencement speeches. there's a university paying you $100,000 to show up at a commencement speech wearing a batman outfit. joel: i'll be there. the second question about automation is not just about jobs but growth in general. and all the innovations we've hailed the last 15 years have proven ineffective at creating growth. the assumption was innovation creates growth, that's not true. you think it will be true in the future? joel: a yeah but it will be a different kind of growth. what we've experienced over the last 50, 60 years has been jobs accompanying growth in lock step. that's not the way it's going to happen anymore. jobs are growing but they're going at a much slower rate than the economy as a whole. and they're concentrating. we have shortages in the high-tech sector. we have shortages of workers in
biotech and so forth. tom: you want a graduate to do stem is what it comes down to? joel: yes. tom: we'll talk about a blue-collar american in our next section but do you want stem education and are you of the point we need liberal arts at well? joel: we need both. we have to be well-rounded human beings. this is a planet for human beings. tom: don't look at me, talk to donnie -- to vonnie. vonnie: what about the energy industry, is it no long area time to go in to mining and energy? joel: it remains a time for mining and for all the basic industries. they're just going to be done differently and they'll be done more in conjunction with machines. we're thousands of times more productive than many emerging market countries. so the problems are not here. the problems are in the
emerging markets. they're the ones who have not made the transition to the service economies yet. people look at the emerging markets as a place to invest. it's not true. the place to invest is here because we've made the leap. we went through this terrible, difficult transition in the 1940's and 1950's and that's different. brendan: we're coming out of this time of growth and people are expected to work very hard. one of the things college graduates are saying is they want a better quality of life. people who run companies look at that and say slackers. i'm slightly younger and feel i'm glad they're fighting this fight. it's an important fight. joel: 20 years ago we had the chance to make a decision. do we work half as hard and get the same amount of money or work twice as hard and get four times the amount of money? we chose the money and now a lot of people are saying, is that the right choice? we have all these machines.
brendan: i choose working half as hard. let me make that clear now. for our twitter question of the day, is america weaker or stronger right now? that of course with the lapse of the patriot act, surveillance authority. if this is being surveillance, let us know. >> bloomberg television is brought to you by servpro.
tom: good morning, everyone. we're fighting optimism, forget about pessimism. the gap between the haves and have-knots and widens in america and makes for a sharp debate over our inequality show. kurtzman understands the haves alwayswhat about those without modern skill sets to prosper, how do we engage the millions left behind in a instant 20th century. we'll talk about it in a bit 1963 post world war ii goods producing america. they've been left behind. does education, jobs programs did the jobs starts programs help? joel: yeah, they help. what's happened if you look at the unemployment rate and you go back 20 months, 30 months, go back to the beginning of the great recession, what's interesting is that for educated people, college and above, it didn't change. tom: for a large part of america incomes have gone flat. we look at the chart of the
year two or three years ago and it just hasn't happened. joel: right. and what i'm saying is that for college educated people with skills, there was really no great recession. they were afraid maybe their houses temporarily lost ground but for the most part they were ok during that period. the great recession was really concentrated in the people who don't have skills or education. those people are usually working, get their start in infrastructure and in construction and that sector shut down with the 2007 and 2008 calamities and never came back completely. it's really important to remind us here on this show and in general in the media is something allen zenner at morgan stanley talk about all the time, those of us with college degrees and live here and talk to others with college degrees don't know people who
lost their jobs and it's good to be reminded that is actually happening and there's a stark distinction there. joel: that's the problem. is that the great so-called great recession was very concentrated and was concentrated among the weakest in our society and that's defined by lack of education. tom: i look at this, joel, and look at what we do and there's proactive programs. you look for a government solution or is your message all free enterprise is how we narrow inequality? it hasn't happened. joel: i think it's a mix. the answer is a mix. we have to have infrastructure investment for the private sector to get -- tom: why is that so hard? it's one of the great confess. joel: remember shovel-ready projects? we never got there. we had a lot of projects ready to go, supposedly. that would have put a lot of people to work. it would have carried through over years. we never had the money allocated to really do the infrastructure that we need. tom: let's come back with joel
kurtzman as well in the point of no return for everybody. are we at the point of no return right now? on "marketmakers" coming up later on bloomberg television. jeffrey smith of starboard. this is on olive garden. this is on pasta and olive garden. jeffrey smith, star about board value, c.e.o. stay with us. it's bloomberg surveillance. ♪
tom: good morning, everyone. bloomberg surveillance worldwide. to the top headlines with vonnie. vonnie: windows 10 will be released in time for the back to school personal computer season and be available for p.c.'s and offer as free upgrade for those using windows 7 and 8.1. apple is considering selling its debut yen dominated bond in the near future according to goldman sachs and says they will offer the securities due to market conditions and offers notes more than yen swaps and could sell securities as soon as thursday. staying with apple here's a cautionary tale for those clearing out their closets.
in april, a woman who cleaned out after her husband's death dropped off a computer at a california recycling center and didn't know it was an original apple computer bought by steve jobs and the recycle center sold it for 2ds00,000 and is trying to find the woman to give her half the money. that is a very moral recycling center. tom: how much did they sell it for? brendan: and a sharp recycling center. someone saw it might be important and picked it up. vonnie: the person who bought it maybe told the seller. brendan: someone at the recycling center said hold on, instead of recycling it, let's sell it. tom: i threw out ugly window blinds. vonnie: they might have been art. tom: they were not. looking ahead, crunch time for greece, working away on a monday morning as well as last week. breakthroughs in cancer treatment and of course economic data at 8:30 we'll give you coverage of personal income and personal spending
out as well. it was 18 weeks before the assassination of president kennedy as always there was optimism and drowned out by pessimism. life magazine asked what would become of america and they basically got the call dead, dead wrong. it's a story repeated and repeated over half a century none more so than today. joel kurtzman, senior fellow at the milken institute the doom and gloom crew have it very wrong and is unleashing the second american century. it's an ageless story. why do we feed on pessimism? other than to make people lean forward and watch television and listen to radio why do we do this? joel: it's safer to err on the side of caution. you know, if you mistake the noise in the bushes, if you mistake a lamb for a lion, that's not a serious problem but you save yourself. if you mistake a lion for a
lamb -- tom: you get in trouble. sounds like economics and central bank policy. a quote from harvard business review with mr. kurtzman right now, hardly anyone can foresee how an economy is changing even as those changes are underway as my old copy of "life" magazine proves that generation's sophisticates argued the end of jobs. that's what this is about is sophisticates, isn't it? joel: it's always true jobs reappear and jobs you never heard of suddenly show up as a consequence of new technology but policy has to address what's going on with everyone. and the fact is some people don't recover those brand-new jobs picked up by new graduates and trainees. what should policy do about filling in the gaps in this progress that economists see long term and will obviously take place? joel: there are two elements to that remember the words individual responsibility?
that still matters because it matters now more than ever in terms of taking care of our own taping own education making sure our skills are up to date. the issue is that the half life of a job today of a career is very short. when you think about all the jobs that were destroyed, they were not replaced by the same jobs they were replaced by different elements in the economy. tom: this goes back to hamburger flippers. vonnie: the structure of the economy has changed and there's been a shift to more service sector jobs, is that staying the case and growing, what kind of pie will we have in 10 to 20 years? joel: yes, that service sector transition continues, and that makes a lot of sense, machines are just faster, better, bigger stronger than humans are. so that's going to continue.
fortunately in the united states we entered that transition a long time before other countries. so year already well through that transition. most people here are in the service economy. that's not true in emerging countries. it's not true in middle countries, middle economic group countries. but we made the transition better. so we should not be worrying so much about jobs being taken by robots because we've already done that and already made that move. vonnie: what kind of implication does it have for wages and our service sector jobs and are they always inherently going to be less paid than nonservice sector jobs? joel: there always will be a war for talent. talent, education, educated workers, people with skills creativity innovation, the ability to integrate big ideas, lots of different -- that's always going to be important. and it's only more so now.
brendan: how do you say to someone struggling to cobble together 40 hours a week in the service industry make sure your skills are up to date? if it is about personal responsibility how do you say to someone who can barely get enough hours to work to look beyond? joel: people have to wake up and why i say individual responsibility is important. people have to pay attention to their fields and where the jobs are going. we have a wonderful community college system that is almost perfectly designed to keep you up to date in terms of jobs, especially factory jobs. and people are not taking advantage of it. it's not funded enough. it's squeezed but it's already there and in place and it's a fantastic part of our talent infrastructure. vonnie: on the sharing economy does it help or hurt? joel: i think it helps.
where it's going, we don't know. it's a more efficient use of resources. i think that's a wonderful innovation. brendan: you've got to go to radio, tom. we will move on to our agenda, what we're watching today. i am of course, as always, watching greece, sunday that will not be my agenda. it's not today. what we're trying to figure out now is what the actual deadlines are. jim karen said if the deadline is the end of the month when the e.c.b. and e.u. join agreement ends. it's possible some deadlines -- some people have the deadline as early as this week. vonnie: there is a payment due friday and are provisions and all can be made together the end of the month. brendan: you're clearly in the no deadline camp. vonnie: there are deadlines and the market is pricing in some heightened tension, let's put it that way but don't think friday is the hard deadline and we have an e.c.b. meeting wednesday, too. anyway today, my agenda will
be the data, personal income and spending. we're looking for personal income to have picked up and perhaps personal spending to have dropped a little bit after a gain of .4% last month. brendan: my last agenda is the n.s.a. and of course is the story of the morning and we'll be seeing over the course of the day basically a battle of blind quotes. you'll have administration sources say we're desperately in danger and people like greenwald who was on the show saying we have no way of knowing that unless we have better oversight and will learn a lot about america in the next few days. vonnie: thank for you answering our twitter question weak are or stronger this morning? here is the first answer, the patriot act does not protect constitutional muster. america is less treacherous towards its citizens this morning. that's a good twist on things. here's the third answer if the strengths or weaknesses of the u.s. is determined by a
government agency, we've got some big problems. brendan: i thought it was interesting. joel kurtzman, this idea that you're very confident about america and i asked it be included for this reason which is that we're so pessimistic because we think internationally and competitively but we have good, robust institutions that have nothing to do with the government. joel: yes, and we have great talent here. this is still a magnet from people around the world and hear no one wants to come here and no one wants to live in the united states and students get educated and go home. vonnie: if it's not a government organization what is it? are we alone? brendan: it is good to hear from joel kurtzman that you believe we are looking at a strong american century.
makers." erik: it's crunch time in washington and greeks put lawmakers on deadlines for deals. stephanie: we'll be talking phrma, as investors look for the next big cancer drug. erik: what happens when the activist investor wins and actually takes control? an exclusive conversation with "star wars" c.e.o. jeff smith and olive garden president david george, coming up this hour. stephanie: what happens, erik, no more unlimited bread sticks and salad and without those, what will you do friday night? erik: beginning with our top stories, five programs aimed at stopping terrorists have expired. the senate failed to extend them before a midnight deadline yesterday and means for now the national security agency can no longer collect americans' phone records in bulk and search for links to terrorists. republican senator rand paul used senate rules to slow down action on a bill that would keep the spy programs in place.