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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  June 26, 2015 6:00am-8:01am EDT

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apply capital controls. finally a bear market. china stocks plunge. stock market it evaporates. and uber gets no love in paris. uber is beneath hollande. courtney leave had to get out and walk. this is "surveillance." we're live from our headquarters in new york this friday, june 26. right now we have breaking news. it's not on paris, but again in france, and it involves a terror attack. help me out here. this is very much southeast of paris, south of lyon toward glen obal. it's down to the mediterranean sea, and it's somewhere here in a smaller village southeast of lyon. >> exactly. not too far from the swiss border. it may have been some kind of terror attack. one person has been found decapitated and some injured, and there was an explosion. lemond's twitter feed is
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actually saying the anti-terror squad is taking over the investigation, so we're going to continue to follow those headlines as they come out. tom: this is just out moments ago, and we'll have much more for you. let's move toward with sursur this morning and we'll go back here with our headlines is vonnie quinn. vonnie: tom, in other news, the leaders of the eurozone countries have a message for their finance ministers, get the greek debt deal done by saturday. hopes were raise and had then dashed yesterday by greek prime minister. he has a new set of proposals, but he pushed back when creditors demanded more cuts. the greek finance minister says both plans are still in play. >> several colleagues disagreed and criticized. we decided at the euro group that we shall continue our operations. you have to look again at the two documents, our documents
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and their own. vonnie: the finance machinester will meet tomorrow for the fifth time in a week. the bailout expires tuesday, the same day greece must make a loan payment to the i.m.f. president bush will be in charleston, south carolina today to eulogize the minister killed in last week's church massacre. he was also a state senator and an early obama supporter. earlier this week, colleagues gathered at the state capitol, where his body was lying in state. after opposing obamacare the supreme court has only five decisions left to announce before ajourning for the summer, and those rulings are expected today or next week. the biggest, the right of same-sex couples to marry. four states have asked them to uphold bans on same-sex marriage. the court will also decide a case on using lethal injectionless for the death penalty. there's growing concern that the bull market has peaked in china. chinese stocks stumbled today. the shanghai composite suffered its biggest loss in five
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months. and in a note today, morgan stanley urged clients not to buy shares in mainland companies. the report said the top of the chinese market may have peaked. tom: very good. breaking news from france, as we january, terrorist attack this time very much south of paris. in paris is our greg, who has decades of coverage of his nation of france. greg, again, terrorism, and certainly linked within the piece, as sketchy reports are linked to some form of arab flags and isis paraphernalia. why does this happen in france and how will the nation react after what was witnessed in january? greg: first, it's not just france, we've had it in britain, denmark and other countries, too. there is a tiny, tiny section of the french muslim population, the disaffected young men, not just muslims,
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not just arab immigrants some of them are converts, but there is a sort of young angry rebellious fringe to young muslims in france, and these things happen now and again t. wasn't just in april. there were some follow-up attacks. there were much smaller things, knife attacks on a policeman here, an attempt to knife some soldiers that were guarding a synagogue a few months ago. details are sketchy on this one, but it does seem it was a man who drove into an industrial plant, attempted to set off an explosion. he had some kind of a flag with him that had arabic inscription on it. >> the company is air products. i'm looking on the terminal. they're based in allentown. there's also a picture of that plant. vonnie: exactly it's air products an english title. greg, what do we know about the politics of this region? we want to be very careful
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before we say no. we know the anti-terror squad has taken over the region, but the politics of this region, which way is it skewing? greg: nothing in particular except you've got two nearby towns that both have their fair share of suburbs. the poor people live outside the town. they both have some fairly bad neighborhoods, where some young men have gone to leave, to join with islamic state and syria. otherwise i wouldn't say this area stands out from any other area in france. tom: thank you very much. again, french television picking up some of the coverage. this is just breaking between lyon and grenole, you remember that from the olympics. this is far southeast of paris. we will be covering this, of course worldwide through the
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morning, just breaking, a terrorist attack southeast of paris this morning. we need to turn to brussels, where the news simply does not end. ring fence it's a term from the first crisis of 2007, and then i heard it again used with lehman brothers in early 2009, and now we are ring fencing greece. if key saturday meetings fail, europe may ring fence greece. well, time is pressing according to chancellor merkel. hans nichol social security ring fenced in brussels throughout the week. what will occur today, and how do you and the rest of brussels get to saturday evening? hans: how we get to saturday evening is easy, and that's caffeine and a lot of it. the summit ended last night at 3:00 a.m., and they weren't even talking greece. they stopped talking greece in the middle of the evening because there simply wasn't any progress. what has to happen today is they have to merge these two documents. they have to take the greece documents, the greece proposal
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and what the creditors are offering, and try to meld them. it could be a cut and paste operation, it could be back and forth. that document whatever melded document they have, that will be the negotiations, the basis for negotiations to start saturday night at 5:00 p.m. i don't know why they don't meet here in the afternoon, because they know they're going late but maybe that's why they do. tom: i hear mixed reports, hans, the banks won't open. i don't want to report that as a fact. the idea of capital controls, even peter in the f.t. talking up humanitarian aid. what would you presume will be the outcome for monday? hans: a good outcome is there's a vote in the athens parliament, passes, and then it goes to vote for tuesday, and that's the deadline. a bad outcome would be there's no agreement, there's recriminations, and you see a real run on the banks, and see the european central bank not extend emergency liquidity assistance. just moments ago, they did
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extend, or they made the request, the greece banks made, and it was unchanged. it doesn't look like there's been a lot of capital flight out of the greek banks. in general the request matches the outflow. a bad outcome would be sunday, no deal here in brussels, and then in athens we have it. even if you did agreement here on sunday, guys, it's no sure thing that it will pass the parliament. that's one of the things we've been hearing about the meetings yesterday, was that he's asking his colleagues how do they think with their proposing can pass a parliament in athens. tom: we've got our first dumb headline of the morning for sursur. -- for "bloomberg surveillance." greece doesn't understand creditors. >> the german chancellor reportedly told tsiprias over dinner to shut up. what is her role in driving this towards a conclusion right now?
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hans: i would not disparage another news organization's reporting, but that doesn't quite seem with the angela merkel i know. what we know happened is he tried to bring up greece last night, but the dutch finance minister cut him off and said no, we're here to give a progress report, but we're not going to open up negotiations here at this leaders summit. that needs to be done by the finance ministers. they got to figure out primary budget surplus, make sure it adds up, and the leaders didn't want to get caught up in that. i would be suspect of that report, but who knows? maybe she said it. i don't know. >> well, less important than what she said is what she's doing to force a decision. is she driving it forward to get something out of this weekend? hans: you look at what she's been saying. in the past there's been a slight rhetorical difference between what she says, where
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there's a will there's a way, and what her finance minister says, hey, we appear to be going backwards. yesterday the chancellor seemed to be mimicking her finance minister, and that was an important rhetorical shift, because not to say that that means she's throwing in the towel, but she may be more on her finance minister's side, that is that greece is unwilling to compromise and there's not a whole lot of benefit for her to continue to stretch out her hand. tom: hans nichols, thank you so much this morning. the breaking news, we haven't given it enough time in this first moment of "bloomberg surveillance," to daniel, senior investment strategist at bank of america merrill lynch, doing razor sharp analysis of equity markets. i'll be direct for the moment here and we'll talk about this later. you think this market is richly valued. what did the uber bulls get wrong? daniel: if you look at any evaluation metric you have, i'd be hard-pressed to find any trading below the averages. i'm very sympathetic to the idea that valuations are a
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little bit high relative to history, but when you boil it down and do the math on what that implies for future returns, first of all, it complies nothing the next couple of years. if you look at the historical regression between valuation returns, it's almost zero over the first year or two. so really, it's telling a lot about long-term returns, and what it means is that you're going to see lower than average returns. tom: this is the first day where china has my attention. we've got a genuine all-american bear market in china. does that rebound over to the united states and our equity markets? dan: i don't think it does. you've definitely seeing a decoupling of these markets, so you've seen a skyrocket in china. you haven't seen the skyrocket in the u.s. i'd be hard-pressed to think this correction is going to flow through to the u.s., and it hasn't so far, right? we're at all-time highs. tom: much more to talk about in this hour. brendan: coming up, a decision yesterday on affordable care
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act. right after that healthcare stocks rallied after a key component of that act was upheld. will the positive momentum in the industry last? are they now trading on fundamentals again? we will look at that next. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪
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tom: futures flat, flat, flat this morning. here's vonnie quinn. vonnie: in southeast alaska, a plane carrying sightseers from a cruise ship has crashed into a cliff. all nine people on board were killed. the crash occurred at a lake about 800 miles southeast of anchorage. the passengers hobb a cruise the holland america ship.
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air bnb could push the company's valuation to $24 billion. financing has been driven by investment firms in both the u.s. and china. the company expects to bring in $1.5 billion. if it succeeds, that would match facebook as the biggest investor round for a private tech company. the popularity of the home rental service is increasing quick until china. in california, a controversial plan to require nearly all public schoolchildren be vaccinated has pass aid major hurdle. protesters demonstrated outside as the state assembly approved the plan. it struck down the state's personal belief exemption. the state senate has passed a similar bill. supporters say california needs a boost to vaccination rates after an outbreak of measles. we're following the news out of france. paris cac is down about half a percent, where it had been as we know one person has been found decapitated outside air products a facility close to grenoble in the southeast.
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brendan: yesterday the supreme court hospitalers and stocks jumped on the news. we have with us right now on the desk, jason from bloomberg intelligence. you know, i'm looking at a note right now from christine arnold at cowen and she describes what happened yesterday as a sigh of relief. had this been priced in, or was this unexpected good news? jason: yeah, definitely hadn't been priced in, brendan, and i think the reason was there was so much uncertainty in terms behalf the supreme court would do. so the stocks are trading up new where from 8% to 15%, and folks figured that there was consensus that it would be a positive decision, but it just wasn't clear how much that would be interpreted. tom: jason knows this of course brendan, tenet has 108,000 employees. it's like half of j.p. morgan.
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i didn't know that. it's huge. brendan: walk us through the distinctions between health insurers and hospitals. for whom is it better? jason: it's definitely better for hospitals, because they've had to treat these patients anyway. pre-obamacare, they were treating sandeashts rising up to 30% of their revenue, so now with obamacare, they're essentially getting the revenue. for them it's a big deal, and they could have lost 6.4 million people, but those people keep their insurance. for them it's bad debt expense that now they don't have to face insurers have additional people that have health insurance and they get earnings from that, but it's not as substantial in terms of earnings because they have to spend a lot of it in terms of healthcare costs. brendan: i'm looking at a note from b.m.o. short-term rotation out of managed care and into hospitals so this is
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so much better for hospitals that we're going to see that movement. jason: you know, that's possible. the other thing is there are about 22 states that have decided not to expand medicaid ,bulls would say, hey, a number of these states are considering expanding, so there's a long-term thesis that that side of the sector can still see some upside. we've heard some rumors, and there's still some optimism there, so the whole sector has really had a lot of interest in it. tom: i want to go to the state of our hospitals. bring up the chart. this is tenet healthcare, and it shows the different supreme court decisions. there's a signing of the affordable care act way over there in 2010, and then the first decision, and on we go to yesterday's decision. you know, i'm thinking here, buying the rumor selling the supreme court, and what exactly is the margin state of these entities? are they making more money than
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they were in 2010? jason: yeah, absolutely. we talked about the 30% of revenue that they had to write off pre-obamacare, and that's gone down by anywhere from three to five percentage points. the margins have absolutely improved. even the margins have definitely improved upwards of 15% to 20%. tom: unlike a given city hospital in a big american city, these machines make money. they wake up every quarter, sort of like cable tv, and go, we know we're going to make money. do i have that right? jason: yeah, keep in mind that's different for the for-profit hospitals whereas the not for profit hospitals they have higher costs typically teaching hospitals, and they invest a lot more. so it's a little bit different story here for the for profit. tom: can i ask a dumb question? is the obamacare act good for
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doctors and nurses? i can't get a straight answer. jason: at first it wasn't, and that's because it's very costly law for them, and so a lot of them had to sell their practices and become part of these larger practices. now that they are, then it actually is good because we all have the doc fix sign. that law in concert with obamacare, it's not so bad, because now all these new patients are in the system. it's actually coming to be a good law. tom: i just learned more about this in the last two minutes than i've learned in eight days. brendan: aren't you glad we scheduled this? tom: very good. thank you, jason. with bloomberg intelligence, jason mcgorman. coming up -- this is the guest so many have been asking for. tony is a genius on short-term paper and on liquidity. he's with a small start-up company in newport beach called pacific investment management company n. our next hour, anthony crescenzi on your fears of liquidity. stay with us on this friday,
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again, with news from france. we'll have that for you. ♪
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tom: good morning, everyone. breaking news now, this is in france. it is southeast of lyon. we're going to give you an update now on a terrorist attack. this is the map. this is lyon, way south of paris, and then southeast of lyon is a small saint-quentin-fallavier. you can just prove i used rossett astone on french. brendan, am i right this chemical factory is american owned? brendan: it's air products and
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chemicals. it's based in allentown. they supply to samsung, royal dutch shell, b.p. and exxonmobil. tom: please give us an update. vonnie: one person has been decapitated, two others injured, and we're calling it a terrorist attack on air products and chemicals. that's a gas plant. we know that a car was driven into the area and decapitated person was found behind the plant. according to newspapers, lemond for example, the anti-terror squad has taken over the investigation. the french interior minister is on his way, and we know that francois hollande is returning from bruce themselves afternoon. he's due to speak in this hour. tom: 20 minutes before we went on air, he cam out of a meeting with chancellor merkel and so he moves directly back to france to begin to deal with this. brendan, as we talked to our greg in paris unfortunately this is a repeat effort. it is june, and only in january did we face the tragedy in
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paris. brendan: yes and we can't confirm this, but there are already pictures of who the attackers might have been. but again, this is very, very, very new and unconfirmed. vonnie: they've mobilized 10,000 soldiers to guard sites around the country. tom: south of lyon very much south of paris as well. futures are negative too, and dow futures negative. coming up, we'll look again at paris and uber. good morning. ♪
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tom: good morning from new york city. another terrorist attack in france. 288 miles southeast of paris. vonnie has our headlines. vonnie: yes, it is one person
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killed, two wounded at a gas plant. it happened in grenoble at the american products and chemicals plant. one person holding an islamist flag drove into the plant and rammed into gas canisters, causing an explosion. a decapitated body was found. president hollande is returning to france from brussels and due to speak this hour. brendan: the plant is called air products & chemicals. tom: one of the most venerable american specialty chemical companies. between lyon and grenoble. vonnie? vonnie: if there's going to be a deal on the greek, bailout it will not happen until the weekend. finance ministers will not meet until tomorrow. giving the greek government and creditors time to work out
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differences over financial reforms to unlike bailout money. the head of the finance ministers' group makes it clear is up to greece. >> we have no agreements. the institutions will have a look at the greek proposals, which came in late. if those are useful, we will put them in. the door is open for the greek side to accept what is on the table. vonnie: the bailout expires tuesday. the same day greece must pay the imf $1.7 billion. the state department says it cannot find 15 work-related e-mails from hillary clinton's private server. the e-mails were released by health panel investigating the benghazi attack three years ago. the messages include intelligence reports passed on by longtime political confidant sidney blumenthal. the e-mails predate the attack. there are few words written by clinton herself. a german producer expected to
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reject a takeover bid from canada's potash corporation. the bid is seen as too low. the german company is reviving the offer. the deal would give potash access to german salt mines. amazon trying a high-tech version of the neighborhood ice cream truck to promote its mobile shopping app. the treasure trove. it will carry one heavily discounted item every day. shoppers can find out what is offered and locate the truck by using the app. the truck debuts tomorrow in seattle. no word on whether it will be tried in other cities. tom: it is an experiment. brendan: the discounted item yesterday it was a paddleboard take it down the east river. tom: this is what amazon does they do experiments. brendan: hard to tell whether they are doing an experiment or publicity stunt.
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think of the delivery by drone. tom: uber has had some challenges in the last few days. by all accounts, uber is a success. except when it is not. in the hamptons, and uproar. they ban over outrage. that is quaint compared to the violence in perry spirit when you think of france, you think of francine lacqua. you are thinking of uber. translate this in america. france was charged at the violence. is it about uber or is there something bigger going on? francine: it is about disruptors in general. it may be difficult to realize when you are sitting in the states how many industries in france and in italy and greece are locked.
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it's difficult for a disruptor to come in. when you see the violence in france, i would make two points. this is something we see often in france because traditionally people take to the streets. people that are unhappy can become violent. we saw cars burning. things probably need to be reformed. brendan: uber's tactic has been to beg forgiveness rather than ask permission. was that what they did when they moved into france as well? francine: it is. when you see how close to the taxi industry is in places like france, uber was also banned in germany and italy. these are closed. to get a taxi license and france you need a 100,000 euros.
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in italy it is more expensive. they did not ask for proper regulations. but if they had, it would have been almost impossible to get it i caught up with former ecb president jean-claude trichet. he likes the disruptions because he thinks it is advantage for the consumer. this is what he told me about uber. >> i'm not surprised that the impact of new technologies, new apps with smartphones and so forth is creating difficulty. we had a real sector. i hope this technology will permit to modernize the sector. as well as a number of other sectors. francine: these protests and clashes took everyone by surprise. it is very symptomatic of reforms needed that are not
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being done. uber cannot get into them. tom: i also have got vonnie quinn. europe is different than america. courtney love gets the headlines in america. the music industry and the u.s. that might be the headline, what is the cultural difference between ireland or london or paris versus what uber is doing in houston, texas? vonnie: unions have more power in europe still. uber has been paying fines that drivers have been getting. uber has been taking the flag. they set up a headquarters by the court. are they doing anything in terms of protection with basically the riots going on. francine:, they are trying. courtney love tweeted we had tweets from celebrities. there is a security concernin
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france. there are two types of ubers. the names of drivers change from country to country. the most affordable service is being challenged. they do not have to pay a license fee. the more upscale ones are not being challenged. if you are traveling to france the careful. you do not have to have a driver with a bat but maybe it does not hurt. brendan: i almost spit out my coffee when i heard you say it costs 100,000 euros to get a taxi license. an article in "business week" this week talking about david plouffe's work with uber. the picture you can see is how many lobbyists they have in the usp or what has been lobbying outreach looked like in europe? tom: good question. francine: for the moment we
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have never heard a president like francois hollande say they should be made illegal. the courts have stopped uber the cheaper service, which is called uberpoo -- uber pop. i know you spent your coffee out when you hit 100,000. in italy it is more. they find it very difficult to gain market share. tom: my experience, this goes back to the lobbying work of david plouffe he has appeared on "surveillance" many times. the basic idea is there is outrage. is the basic junior banker in paris are they livid about this or are they supporting the taxi drivers? francine: the bnp paribas trader might have been educated in the
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states. he may have a more liberal approach to these industries that are in dire need of reform. the average person in the streets in paris may be behind the taxi drivers just like they are behind the taxi drivers or pharmaceutical, the pharmacy in greece where you need 300,000 euros to get the license. this, for me is a disruptive versus old world europe. depends on where your affinities lie. brendan: francine lacqua in london. a new indicator for morgan stanley shows the apple watch may be more popular than the iphone. today's single best chart. this is bloomberg "surveillance" on bloomberg television. ♪
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tom: good morning, everyone. a quiet screen. a lot going on in brussels. hans nichols at the top of the hour. right now, single best chart. brendan: earlier this week, a morgan stanley analyst published her best idea. demand for apple's watch has stabilized. some think they are looking at is called the watch tracker.
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looking at interest in the watch. lower than the first generation iphone. now we are six weeks since the launch. demand has stabilized higher than expectations. the markets do not expect expectations for iphone and the watch growth are low -- the watch may fare better than we had expected. tom: dances suzuki with bank of america-merrill lynch. i like the phrase "moves the needle," the iwatch does not move the needle for apple and nobody seems to care. does not matter that it devolves down to ebitda. dan: people are extrapolating what it could mean for the future. there's a future for increased integration of mobile technology
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and making it more convenient. i have a smart watch. tom: what do you do with your smart watch? dan: i get notifications. they tell me the car is coming to pick me up. vonnie: tell me the brand. dan: motorola. tom: do you have one? brendan: i do not. what morgan stanley says, the most viable technology platform. adding to the universe of the world's most valuable technology. it is -- dan: it's riding a wave that's unstoppable. penetration of increased mobile technology you can take with you . right now, it is a little bit disappointing in terms of what you can do now. you think about it in terms of what you can get.
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people talk about how it is a negative and it is rude to have. i keep my phone in my pocket when i am out and about. tom: we should note that katie has a nice target on apple. she is very optimistic. brendan: we're going to go to top photos. a thank you to julie, who fly to this. vonnie: some top photos to show you. action around the world. in bujumbura burundi, 200 students slid under the gain of the american embassy amids t protests for the president running for a third term. the ambassador came out and convinced students to leave peacefully. the campaign sparked widespread protests and a coup attempt
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number two following the supreme court ruling on the affordable care act yesterday a picture of president obama hugging deputy chief of staff and vice president biden hugging denis mcdonough in the oval office. the ruling said the obama administration was in its right to grant subsidies to individuals living in states that had not set up exchanges under the aca. brendan: whenever i see a picture of the vice president hugging someone, i want to know what he is whispering. vonnie: number one, the number one tennis player novak djokovic gave the crowd quite a gift yesterday after he won the wimbledon warm-up match. a striptease for the audience. is it a striptease if it is just a short? [laughter] juncker -- brendan: what are your expectations?
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this is wimbledon, you do not do that. those are gluten-free abs. tom: that is not a dad bod. back to france. this is the president of france addressing his nation. his first words on the latest terror attack. well, we will come back. the minister returning to paris from brussels as well. the markets are very quiet. tony crescenzi with us in the next hour with pimco. ♪
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tom: he is the 24th president of france, francois hollande. he has a little experience with this -- another terror attack in france. 288 miles south of paris, lyon. southeast of lyon, a small village. air products chemical plant. one dead and two injured. brendan: hollande says he speaks as one person is arrested and
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identified. vonnie: returning from the eu summit after the press conference. he will be holding a cabinet meeting this afternoon. he says other security measures will be taken if necessary. tom: we will continue this story through the morning. now to our other top headlines. vonnie: the country's second largest health insurer aetna closing on an acquisition of humana. a deal could happen this weekend. humana has received an offer from cigna expected to value humana at more than $28 million. shares of nike rising. corley profit beat estimates. nike has been taking away market share from competitors such as adidas. it has benefited from fashion trends shifting towards casual and comfort. a dispute about a beauty pageant
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getting ugly. univision says it will not show donald trump's miss usa pageant next month. the network cited insulting remarks trump made about mexican immigrants during his president announcement. dispute about a beauty pageant getting ugly. univision says it will not show donaldtrump says dropping the pageant would be a contract violation and he is threatening to sue univision. i do not have much to say about what donald trump says. tom: he was in "ft." brendan: he once as much media as possible. tom: he has been more than patient to stay with us. trumpit is called "conviction," dan suzuki joining us from bank of america-merrill lynch. tragic news out of france and brussels. you have a cautious view where so many are optimistic. what do the uber bulls get wrong? dan: i would not say we are
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bearish. where in the later stages of a bear market. going forward, the returns are going to be more modest. we've seen a drop in volatility this year. i think you're going to see volatility pick up. we would not see surprised to see a 5-10% correction over the next six months. tom: where are we now, this is the inflation-adjusted dow going back 30 years. the bottom line is up, down ri ght back down, we have moved to new real valuations for equities. does that mean it is an effervescent market? dan: i don't think so. valuations right now are in the ballpark of values. we are not overly bearish. the indicator that most of the bears point to is the shiller
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pe. if you do the math on that indicator and look at what it implies for returns over the next 10 years, is implying returns of about 6% that is not great compared to the 10% average over the last 50 years but that is pretty good relative to other asset classes. that is the most bearish indicator out there. brendan: curious how you use your data. you run the has be 500 back but you get rid of the tech bubble to get a more accurate image. we should look at that as an outlier? dan: we are trying to be as conservative as possible. one argument is a lot of indicators out there are comparing today's evaluation versus the last 30 years. the problem with the last 30 years is you have a huge spike in evaluations because of the tech bubble, which most would argue is unsustainable. on the basis, most valuation metrics. tom: we could use the company
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of the tragedy in france, air products. when you see a truck in your neighborhood and there are bottles on the back, that is air products. one of america's iconic companies. 12% total return, 11% five-year dividend growth. is their optimism that those kind of returns will continue ? dan: there's a lot of optimism in crowded trades. people over the last few years have piled into yield plays, short duration equities, and long-duration equities things that do not make any money now but are projected to make money. tom: we call that silicon valley. they are not piling into blue chips. dan: they are not. if you look at the 10 biggest stocks in the s&p, we ran our data -- active fund managers are
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almost 40% underweight those stocks. tom: that is the most important equity thing i've heard this week. dan: top 10 stocks by make a cap, that -- megacap, 36% underweight by fund managers. brendan: you are still saying that equities are the game we should be playing peers still better than the alternative. dan: if you run the math, you are probably going to get mid to high single digits or even low double-digit returns over the next 10 years on average. if you compare that to every other asset class. from treasuries you are going to get 2.5%. commodities, 3-7%. it is better relative to those assets. tom: thank you. we need you to come back next week. dan suzuki with bank of america. a quick four x report. not much going on on this summer friday. a churn, 1.1210.
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in our next hour, anthony cousins -- anthony crescenzi of pimco. we continue to follow the terrorist attack in france as flawed returns from brussels to paris. good morning, everyone. bloomberg "surveillance." ♪
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announcer: this is bloomberg
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"surveillance." tom: greek and eu leaders must find time saturday to compromise or the eu moves to plan b. threere's a global fear on liquidity. anthony crescenzi of pimco. john roberts, anthony kennedy and the new supreme court. good morning, everyone. this is bloomberg "surveillance." live from new york. friday, june 26. our programming interrupted an hour ago. an attack some 300 miles south of paris. near lyon at an air products chemical plant. one dead. the president of france returning to paris. brendan: he has scheduled a cabinet meeting this afternoon. tom: we go to paris as we did and january with greg on the
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terrorist attack. france gets used to this. another attack. what will be different about the response of the nation this time versus what we saw in january? greg: in january, because of the scale of the attacks and a massive response from all sections and all religions it was such a massive reaction to a massive attack. i would not expect that to repeat. this seems, we cannot say this clearly, it seems to be one guy acting on his own. we do not know that yet but everything points to that. we have had these sort of crazy guys doing things, whether it is knifing police. just as you have had in the u.s., denmark and britain. tom: you bring us so much perspective on french culture. i suggest there's a conflation
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of the algerian colonial experiment with the rest of the arabic tensions within france. explain that to us and the divide within the culture of france. greg: france obviously has a complicated relationship with the other shores in the mediterranean since they were a colonial power from morocco through tunisia. there's been a lot of immigration, and large part of the french population is of north african descent. within that community, there is a range of integrated people. several cabinet members of the current government. some young men that feel cut off from the mainstream. they returned to what they think are their cultural roots to get a sense of identity and revenge against the country that they see does not welcome them. there's a full range. five or 6 million people. five or 6 million different
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personal experiences within that. sadly there is a small fringe of disaffected young men. we saw it in the attacks in january. maybe that is what we are seeing today. there are several hundred french in syria fighting with islamic state. it is not just immigrants. there is also an element of young converts in this. there are some young french knot of arab background who feel attracted to this ideology. i guess it is a combination of a rigid, controlling life force to give them purpose and it is rebellious at the same time. maybe a double attraction. brendan: what can you tell us about the region where the attack took place. even the town. is it a place where there are a lot of disaffected young men? greg: i don't know about this particular town, but it is right between lyon, the second or third largest city and france. and grenoble a fairly major
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town. this area of the country is industrial. yes, it does have a lot of the public housing projects where these sort of slightly alienated families grow up. it is not -- it does not stand out from the rest of france but it has that mix you would find in any big city. tom: what did you make of the president's discussion in brussels. he returns to france. what would you expect to see from hollande today and into the weekend? greg: they called a restricted cabinet meeting this afternoon. the interior and probably the defense minister. the prime minister is on a trip to south america. they will go over the high security measures in place in the country. the security forces have been stretched. france has the largest muslim population in europe. it also has the largest jewish population in europe.
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the police are already protecting the synagogues, the mosques. the young men see the mainstream imams and mosques as being their enemy too. they are protecting government sites, military sites. now if they have to start protecting every industrial plant and private company in the country -- there is not the means. i presume they will give lipservice to increasing security. tom: thank you so much. incredibly valuable this morning. another terrorist attack in france. there are other headlines. vonnie: french president hollande calling it a terror attack, one dead and two injured at a french gas plant. the dead man was decapitated. one suspect arrested and identified. the president is returning to france from brussels and will hold a cabinet meeting this afternoon. in other news, tomorrow is
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decision day in the greek debt crisis. that is the message from euro zone leaders. finance ministers holding meetings in brussels to meet the deadline. the greek prime minister is pushing his own plan and resistant one from creditors. his finance minister says both plans are still in place. mr. varoufakis: interesting several disagree and criticized. we decided as a eurogroup that we shall continue our deliberations. the decisions are going to look at our document and their own. vonnie: the finance ministers will meet tomorrow for the fifth time in a week. the current bailout expires tuesday. president obama heading to south carolina to eulogize the charleston church massacre. clementa pinckney was a state senator and early obama supporter. in the state capital, the
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minister's body was lying in state. after upholding subsidies in the health care law, five more supreme court decisions due out before the justices adjourn next week. one is a milestone case about same-sex marriage. a ruling could come today. states are asking the court to uphold bans. the court would decide a case involving lethal injection. chinese stocks tumble today. increasing fears that the bull market has peaked. the benchmark shanghai composite suffered its biggest loss in five months. mark and stanley is urging clients not to buy shares in mainland companies. those are the top headlines. tom: thank you so much. two wonderful guests. steve -- with years of experience and a cautious outlook. and tony crescenzi from pimco. i want to give you some major love later about your outlier
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call. they look a little struggling. steve: when you look at the economy, pricing power, problems companies have the net margins have been squeezed. they increased employment and little too aggressively. you have an economy that is running at about 2%. they are seeing margins squeezed and that is part of the problem. tom: tony, you are front and center. looking at greece. in the short-term paper market, in the liquidity market how does that respond to what may transpire saturday and into money. if we get capital controls? tony: whenever investors are nervous globally they go to the treasure market. -- treasury market. if they want to park money, they go to short-term instruments.
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the scarcity of t-bills only worsens. tom: the u.s. two-year is .69%. tony: those are longer. if you want to park money without worrying about price fluctuation you would go shorter. the short t-bills are negative or zero. tom: on this friday at right now when you talk to your professionals, are we going to see that in motion? tony: we continue to expect the last second agreement. last day, last hour, left second the way this is going. in the end, we are optimistic about europe in the medium and long-term about how it will progress. we are long spain and italy. we expect the ecb's purchases to continue to compress yield spreads in those nations. brendan: we have been talking
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about the short-term bills. run that out to the 10-year note. what is your inflation expectation at that timeline? tony: the yield range had been one and a quarter or two and three quarters. the markets are starting to see the whites in the fed rate hike's eyes. inflation picking up at the core level. brendan: we will talk about liquidity. we take a look at our twitter question. will greek banks have to shut down monday? let us know how scared you are on twitter. this is bloomberg "surveillance." ♪
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tom: good friday morning. bloomberg "surveillance" from new york city. a morning must read. brendan: from "ft," when george osborne and yanis varoufakis met in london, it seemed like an odd couple. they seem to share a political imperative, sparing pensioners and older workers from cut their governments need to make as they seek to reduce deficits.
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that, to me is a fascinating perspective. when we talk about europe, ultimately the greek crisis comes down to a pension crisis. we do not know how to pay for things we have promised and cannot make good on. tom: the penchant thing is front and center in these agreements. brendan: the central problem with the greek system is that the benefits are not that much more generous but it is better funded. underfunding is the issue. tom: as we try to get our thoughts around the weekend ireland was not in a depression. vonnie: pretty close. tom: you would say that? vonnie: totally different problems at a housing bubble. what fashions me about the -- what fascinates me about the pension problem, it is the 57-year-old retiring that is the problem. brendan: there are exceptions if you work in a very physical occupation like a policeman or fireman. in greece there is good to if you are a hairstylist. it is the exceptions.
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i saw you, steve from mizuho not in your head when we talked about looking at is what is going on in europe as a pension crisis. steve: it is a pension crisis p we have our own miniature version of that here at state and local levels. it is not just a greek problem, it is an international problem. in japan, the u.s., everywhere. every country that is getting older. tom: what did we learn about contagion this week? i look at the spread move and vonnie and iwatch ireland at 61 basis points. nothing near what greece is. i did not know that ireland got up to 15% unemployment. tony: on the political side gordon brown once visited pimco a few years ago at our forum. he said do not underestimate the
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political will of europe to keep the euro together. we see that on numerous occasions. the second is central banks and their powerful influence. in our latest forum, one of the conclusions is -- can central banks keep it together? in some ways it is a house of cards with all the indebtedness. looks like markets belief central banks can keep it together. tom: we are going to come back. tony crescenzi and steve with us as well. our twitter question, will greek banks shut down monday? ♪
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tom: good morning, everyone. 300 miles south of paris near lyon. this is the former mayor of cherbourg and now the interior minister of france, bernard cazeneuve. his first comments to the global press. we are working the headlines. vonnie: he is speaking at a side of the attack. the decapitated man has not been
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identified. he also says the suspect was known to police but has an open record. in other headlines, nine people died after a plane crashed in southeast alaska. the plane was carrying eight sightseers from a cruise ship. the plane struck a cliff 800 miles southeast of anchorage. passengers had been on a cruise aboard the holland america ship. airbnb's financing could push evaluation to 24 billion dollars. financing being driven by investment firms in the u.s. and china. the company expects to bring in $1.5 billion. that would match facebook as the biggest ever equity investment round for a private tech company. the popularity of the service is increasing quickly in china. a controversial plan to require vaccinations for nearly all public school children clears a hurdle in california. protesters demonstrated outside as the state assembly approved the plan. it strikes down to personal
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belief exemption. the state senate passed a similar bill. supporters say california needs to boost vaccination rates after a measles outbreak. tom: this has been a rapid response. in legislation. this is not like the supreme court it has been six months. brendan: all it takes is a couple of outbreaks. we have had the exemptions for a long time. the states have been relaxing standards. it is easy to relax standards when you are not looking at an outbreak. the spike has been instructive. tom: there it is. back towards what is going on in greece. greece is scheduled to get fixed saturday. in the meantime, the elephant in the room is europe's liquidity. anthony crescenzi is executive vice president and blah, blah blah at pimco. he's the author of a 1200 page doorstop. 14 people read it. tony: i have 4 other books.
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tom: in liquidity, you and i five or six years ago would look at libor. we would know the risk-free rate. can we do that today? tony: it is more difficult because of the growing scarcity of short-term instruments and central-bank activity. they own a big portion of debt. tom: it is distorted. tony: liquidity is something -- we should change our mindset a little. we want liquidity in our portfolios. individuals do entities do. we can buy treasuries. they tend to be very liquid. what do we do with the ill liquid part? we want to extract the premium that exists. investors will say i do not want these securities. the subprime mortgages of yesteryear. they have had high returns.
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also, bank capital. many investors are worried about european banks. they have been shunning some of their bonds. tom: if we get an outcome saturday or sunday or monday or next thursday, how does it affect your world? how does it affect pimco's world the next minute? tony: pimco manages liquidity on a daily basis in anticipation of various scenarios that could develop. it ensures ample liquidity for clients. tom: you sound like a lawyer. tony: this is true. one has to be prepared every single day for the unknown. brendan: i want to make sure i understand. illiquity is not as much of a problem if you are looking out for the long-term. tony: not agency securities subprime mortgages we think returns will be around mid-single digits. only in cases where home prices
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fall do they become a problem. a 10% decline in home prices would still leave this with a positive return. tom: i want to know what happens to european banks monday morning. tony: there would be a belief -- there would be some risk premium might develop in bonds in the periphery. there would be a feeling that the central bank, the european central bank at the end of the day will help save the day. tom: provide liquidity and come to the rescue. tony: it is engaging in a bond buying program to last until such a 2016. tom: can they ramp that up monday or tuesday? tony: they might just decide to change the timing. tom: within your research, does mr. draghi have the ability to work on an ad hoc basis on monday or tuesday? tony: the key idea, the political will to keep the euro together is there. if it is, then of course the european central bank can act on it. brendan: let me jump in on
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political will. headline from wolfgang schaeuble he says the greater risk to the euro area is loss of credibility. hard to underestimate how much the euro is not a financial or economic project, it is a political project. tom: this is critical for steve's world as well. you believe draghi can write his own rulebook given what the clowns in brussels come up with saturday, sunday, monday tuesday. tony: ever since almost two years ago, we have seen the "whatever it takes." the political will is there to give him the authority to do whatever it takes. you should expect he will act on it. tom: tony crescenzi says we can sleep. vonnie: the document yesterday provided for 15.5 billion euros over five months. brendan: wolfgang schaeuble says odds on the greek outcome are
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50-50. flip a coin, see you monday. tom: we will talk greece monday. brilliant from tony crescenzi of pimco. our twitter question, will greek banks have to shut down monday? ♪
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tom: good morning, everyone. and good morning in europe. let's get top headlights and an update on france. bonnie: that violent attack at a gas plant earlier happened near lyon.
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at least one person holding a banner written in arabic driven to the plant and caused an explosion. one factory worker was found decapitated and two others hurt. the suspect is in custody and has been identified no claim of responsibility. the french president is returning to terrorists from a meeting in brussels. he has convened a special cabinet meeting this afternoon he said, and he also said at a press conference that security at chemical sites is being tightened. we are hearing from the interior minister, saying it is not clear why that particular committee was targeted and the suspect is in custody and was known but has no criminal record. there will be no greek mail out until this weekend, at the earliest. the next meeting of euro zone finance ministers is tomorrow in brussels. that will give greece times work out differences over economic reforms. leaders are demanding changes
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before giving out more now out money. the head of the group says it is up to greece. >> we have no agreements. institution will look at the last greek proposals, which came in very late. if those are useful in terms of making a better deal, we will put them in popular the door is still open for the greek side to come with new proposals or accept what is on the table. vonnie: the bailout expires tuesday. the state department says it cannot find 15 work-related e-mails from hill really -- from hillary clinton's private server. the messages include intelligence reports past to her by longtime political confidant sidney blumenthal. officials say there are few words in the e-mails written by clinton. a german fertilizer producer will reject a takeover bid.
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bloomberg news says the $8.5 billion bid from kns is too low. the deal would give potash access to german potash and salt mines. the high-tech version of the neighborhood ice cream truck for amazon. they're rolling out with the call the treasure chart and it will have won heavily discounted item every day. shoppers can find out what is offered and locate the trek by using the app. it debuts tomorrow in amazon's hometown of seattle. no word on whether it will be tried in other cities. tom: it is an experiment, right? brendan: they are great with distribution and publicity. tom: maybe they will be selling drones out of it or something. one thing i know you have to watch china over the weekend particularly sunday evening and monday morning. let's look at the bloomberg terminal. here is the chinese stock
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market. 2% decline. 18% decline. those are classic their market declines. it are they really, when you look at a series as volatile and as awed as this? two standard deviations of volatility, and we're way through that. brendan: one thing to note, a lot of that growth is not coming from institutional investors but from consumers. a great use of reporting from bloomberg news this morning. china investors get that greater full feeling. they regret their experience. tom: there it is. it is not a normal stock market, is it? steve: no, it is not. it is a stock market with the government has been promoting expansion and poppy stock market. tom: my problem is everybody calls a bear market it team russia 18% to 20% and ago, you have to look at the series.
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is china and a bear market? steve: i would throw and a second derivative. i will look of the volatility of volatility. it is a real spike up and we're getting to the point where you really start to look at it that way, yes. tom: that is a friday jargon alert. brendan: make tom happy. tom: the problem is this is the acceleration of volatility. steve: that is correct. from a fundamental perspective, china faces what we all face excess tradable goods and no pricing power. when the government tries to boost and equity market, as it goes through new growth programs and they are trying to fund it they're boosting the equity market and people jump into the marketplace, and then you get a secondary thought process -- who is the greater fool? it is a natural process. tom: steve ricchiuto with us here. in less in this data check.
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crescenzi is up with a fourth derivative what is that about. the euro is up. nymex crude is under $60. gold is $11.72. brendan: this is bloomberg surveillance. yesterday, the supreme court decided to uphold subsidies for the affordable care act. greg is at the supreme court right now. five more decisions are due out before the justices all head to the beach. my first priority right now -- how great is it to have one of those good old barn burning dissents from and 10 and scalia? greg: justice scalia never minces words. certainly when he disagrees strongly with the way the majority red the statute -- read
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the statute and, he said rewrote the statute. brendan: what are you looking forward today in the decision? greg: the biggest one is gay marriage, which could happen today or monday their their big cases involving lethal injection. there is any epa regulation about mercury and power plants. we will get some big news today, one way or another. brendan: were you surprised yesterday that chief justice roberts wrote the decision and did so in the way he did? greg: not really. the chief justice, of course three years ago, backed obamacare a gift a broader constitutional challenge. he cares a lot about the institutional integrity of this court, the way it presents self. he knows what it would have looked like if it would have been a 5-4 decision. the fact that he cannot on this site, i think that is what most people were guessing what happened. tom: move esther today, monday and tuesday.
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then move us to the first tuesday of november of next year. how will the politics be changed with what we have seen in the next couple days? greg: had health care the other way, then it would have been a bigger deal. suddenly you would have 6 million people losing their insurance. health care will still be an issue but not as much. sort of the same thing with gay marriage. if the court says we're not going to legalize gay marriage, you suddenly have debates in all the state spirits if the supreme court legalizes gay marriage suddenly it is a decisions but not ones that continue to be debated quite so much in the coming years. vonnie: we found that 30% of people who had not been for gay marriage actually change their minds and now support it since last year, since that decision. will that decision come down today? will the supreme court find with
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political opinion? greg: the supreme court is not a politically accountable branch. he does not respond to public opinion in the way congress does, but it is not unaware of it. we have seen the court shift in the rapidly in the direction of gay rights and gay marriage, was like we have seen the public do it. it is hard to say that they are not connected in some way. brendan: looking back over the last two terms, and i know this term is not yet completely over, is just as kennedy still be swing justice or can we now consider the chief justice as the swing justice? greg: this time, he certainly has an much more. i guess they're both swing justices. probably just as kennedy more often than not goes with the four democratic appointees be at he did it yesterday in an important case involving housing discrimination letting losses go forward even without proof of intentional discrimination. he will be the swing justin --
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justice more often than not. tom: greg, thank you so much. i know it is a big day ahead for you. brendan i am glad you mentioned justice kennedy. there were changes in the rate of appointee i believe, over to what he called a new kind of liberal. brendan: this is a classic disappointment conservatives, and particular, have to they send people to the court and watch them drift away the longer they stay there appeared yesterday, i looked at a conservative magazine, and they are deeply disappointed with chief justice john roberts. he was supposed to be there guy and defined the court for a generation. it has not worked out the way they hoped. tom: there it is. more from the supreme court, perhaps, this morning at 10:00 a.m., and then onto monday, as well. still some major decisions to go.
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we are continuing to cover the attack. this is 300 miles south of pairs near -- paris near lyon, france be a question of the day on brussels and greece -- will the greek thanks up to shut down monday? stay with us worldwide. ♪
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tom: good morning. further headlines from the associated press, stating that there were multiple arrests at that french factory southeast of lyon, some 300 miles south of parris. the sick purity minister -- the security -- the interior minister has looking and francois hollande returns to parris within the hour. brendan: markets can be thick up to that moment that they get scary thin. research at msci have it to did to develop a scorecard to identify and measure what crowded is. we are not crowded here it we have olivia sterns with us. what are they measuring? olivia: i sure you remember what they said joe kennedy got out of the stock market before the crash and the shoeshine boys that into the pit and that is an indicator. msci is trying to find
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indicators for when a trade has gotten too crowded. they have this scorecard with a couple metrics. one is mutual fund holdings and another is short interest. vonnie: and there is risk. olivia: we will have a guest onset about what looks like the new bear market in chinese equities. tom: tony crescenzi is with us of pimco and what is your crowded trade right now? >> trout it -- crowded trade? there are not that many are the cftc put out a report that looked at the commercial and noncommercial -- the noncommercial traders considered speculative. it shows how much they are long and short a certain project. it could be euros, the yen, the stock market, the treasury market. tom: basically, the market is
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being cleared. tony: for the treasury market it was quite long for a wild. yields were falling. olivia: that was the classic crowded trade of the year, the german bund. a lot of people say you are seeing these crowded trades in momentum flocks, netflix, for example. tony: the equity market, the next three to five years, thinking about the interest rate landscape, the year 2020 -- it is a very good climate. it seems to me that the rates will be low. but one has to be tactical about buying. you have to take advantage of the stress and turbulent times that occur and even from the fed tightening. tom: thank you. olivia, thank you. i am so stunned. i think you we have a modest breakthrough in greece.
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we have proposals on a friday. brendan: more headlines readings. some would call that jittery popery. tom: seriously. a five-month extension. i am shocked. inigo oh, no -- brendan: oh, no. tom: they have to get to monday to our twitter question of the weekend has some the to do with a five-month extension. will the greek thanks and to shut down monday? good morning. ♪
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tom: good morning. bloomberg surveillance -- let's get to our top headlines. vonnie: [indiscernible] bloomberg news is hearing that a deal could be reached as early as this weekend. humana also has an offer from cigna. any offer is expected to value humana at more than $28 billion. shares of nike arriving at the premarket. they posted quarterly profits that beat estimates. nike has been taking market share from adidas and other rivals and is it a fitting from the shift and passion towards casual clothing. nasa is planning a mission to mars, and russia is setting for
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the moon to the head of russia's space agency says it will shoot for a manned lunar landing right the year 2030. their plan is to use the moon as a base for missions in deeper into space. those are the top headlines. " very good. science friday. brendan: a russian based on the moon. it is 1965. [laughs] tom: it shows some of the reaches there. it has been a spectacular 36 months on unmanned spacecraft in the united states, particularly with the upcoming pluto mission as well. another mission is to look to wall street, always in a niche case, the street lowballs earnings. surprise dividends raise in stocks advance. steve ricchiuto's chief u.s. economist at mizuho and says eh, maybe not this time. it is important for the bulls to
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listen to you this morning. why are you suspect of the quality? steve: the problem is the lack of pricing power corporations are facing. we lived in a world where there is intense -- intense competition and you see what is happening with humana and what is happening with cigna. evil are trying to merge. tom: to find revenue and margins. steve: and they are trying to reduce costs. two homebuilders went into a forced merge. it was not to increase employment. it is to cut expenses and drop the bottom line. that is a signal we have a problem developing in terms of the ability to generate topline growth. ," part of this is the raging debate about where this nation is going in terms of finance linked over to culture and society. economists -- as an economist do you frame a new terminal valley, -- value, which is shaky earnings? tony: right now there is a
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double-digit concept. you have seen calipers say we are going to 7.5%. i think you'll see more of that developed over time. that will change how we invest. tom: the actual assumption goes down -- does janet yellen, is she having the discussion? is she thinking about steve ricchiuto's new terminal value? tony: it is possible, of course. what investors have to think about, and they probably are, they have to contrast that with the interest rate story. is it enough to push up the earnings multiples? i question whether it is warranted. the saving grace is is nominal gdp growth. the economy is growing at about a 4% clip. looks like it will continue to. tom: is that enough? steve: barely, especially with the risk factor being low to the downside.
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nominal gdp is right or do gdp growth stuck around 2.25%. we cannot count on inflation. deflation is the biggest problem in japan and developing in europe. it is unfolding in china to the rate of wholesale price deflation and china is greater than it is in japan. we have a strong service sector. ligety topline -- look at the topline pce growth numbers, not enough to generate the kind of earnings the market has in mind. then in co i am going to make tom happy. -- brendan: let's talk about using cash, make tom happy. you say companies have "lost sight of cost." what does it mean? tony: we have started ramping up employment and we are able to get the multiple grinding higher by doing share buybacks and giving up m&a we were giving up
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a lot of cash to do that. now we're leveraging balance sheets to give the skin alive. investors are starting to look through that leverage and say, we will look at corporate spreads and we're at the bottom of corporate spreads rising. there is no deterioration going forward, but we are the early stage for you know you are going to get the bank for your buck by doing share buybacks for m&a, except for the health care space. tom: i want to pin you down on what janet yellen will do with the fed. are you a september guy or next year? steve: i am 2016. i see the balance sheet adjusted desk adjustment still folding. tom: where are you, tony? tony: september. we have a metric model. tom: you see optimism on jobs. how do you delay it to 2016?
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steve: the fed has a forecast is is growth will accelerate inflation will pick up, and wages are going to pick up. it's the beginning of the year, that forecast use moving up. i think that will continue to have it. tom: steve ricchiuto and tony crescenzi let's go to our twitter agenda. vonnie: will greek banks of to shut down monday? they will because they will negotiate, negotiate, then negotiate more. tom: what was that, five months? brendan: this is what has happened. we're doing headline ji ggery pokery but it looks either has been an extension offer from the creditors. vonnie: second answer -- do not underestimate the stupidity that got the eu to where it is today.
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it could still go awry. tom: some headlines from much ago saying, let's get to it. the secretary of the treasury says the creditors of greece while to show flexibility. easy to say. reading cap speaking in an interview with yahoo! finance, he says the obvious, the creditors will have to show flexibility. greece will need to restructure. greek debt restructuring will need to be part of the conversation. these are obvious. the problem is, how do we generate the trust to get there? vonnie: third answer -- of the shutdown before june 30 capital and trolls will come. if they come, the truck must -- drachme comes, impossible trinity principle. tom: some interesting outcomes. we learned a lot, but this is
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not an island. brendan: literally, you have to be in island -- it is easier to watch cash coming in the going out. my agenda, of course, greece is always greece and always will be greece. looks like there is an offer of a five-month extension because they cannot agree. i do not know what will be true and five method is not true now. it is an offer, not an agreement. tom cohen on a friday, should we step back and say, excuse me there is a depression going on? brendan: absolutely you and i are going to step back right now and look into the teacher. i'm going to quote wolfgang schaeuble a 50/50 chance. i'm going to flip the coin right now. tom? tom: monday. monday matters. reading co heads. heads it will be here on monday. talking about greece. tom: there it is. vonnie: tom, we have to get to
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your agenda. tom: it has been quite a week for the nation. the president traveling to charleston. i loved the nuance in the "wall street journal," this idea of an ongoing morass. everybody has their own history on this, which is interesting. we come up with this whenever anybody's politics or cultures the presidents is a dark part of our history -- this'll be addressed. i have an offspring that went to school down there, and all she said to me was -- this church is special. vonnie: i will be watching france. one beheaded at two injures. multiple arrests have been made to it we knew one person was in custody. we will get to do -- we will continue to watch that. tom: greg was great on this about the cultural challenges
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and france paired thank you to tony crescenzi steve ricchiuto and for the terrific perspectives this morning. thanks to both of you. much more through the morning, including for the reporting from france on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. good morning. ♪
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announcer: live from bloomberg headquarters in new york, this is "market makers" with erik schatzker and stephanie ruhle.
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stephanie: good morning, friday june 26. you are watching "market makers." i am olivia stern. pimm: i'm am pimm fox. erik schatzker and stephanie ruhle are off. olivia: earlier today, a terrorist attack at a gas plant in france. we will bring you the latest bits give you the latest is giddy details on our top headlines. in france today, it have a net and era products and air products & chemicals planted near the city of lyon. attackers beheaded a man in the java card high speed into the plants, ramming into gas containers causing an explosion. two people were injured. police of made multiple arrests. and there is word that a lifeline is being thrown to greece. one says the program will be extended by five months in greece will get another $17 billion to no word yet on with the greeks will have to do in return.


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