tv On the Move Bloomberg August 27, 2015 3:00am-4:01am EDT
says the option looks less compelling. european futures are climbing ever higher. dax futures up 240 points. is it possible that in the early part of the session we can erase all of the losses for the week? caroline: because what losses we have seen. off of globalped equity markets. that is the entire value of the european stock 600. that is five times the value of the entire ftse 100. but now we are on our way up. 40 up 2.3%. cac the desire for equities is back on. could we actually see more quantitative easing before we see a rate hike? that is something being put on the table by the founder of bridge
associates. morere saying could we see quantitative easing before we see a federal rate hike. on the rate rise? in july they were 70% and now just 50%. we are seeing bids for the u.s. debt on the back of the murmurings that we could see more quantitative easing. 2.16%.t could japan do the same? being discussed by the executive board member saying they are willing to do expand asset buying on the back of concerns that inflation isn't going to be where they want to see it. governor alsopan talking about the potential to see more tools being used. they have many options so says
kuroda. up 2/10 of a percent. rise youree rates stern to see less demand and higher rates making gold less attractive because they don't pay interest and now we are likely to see no rate hike. 2.9% in the euro trade actually a little bit higher. at a fewe a look stocks for to get some sentiment from oil companies. there is the rebound. we are seeing a bit more of those appetites for risk. >> three minutes into the session here. over in asia, the shanghai composite watches another tough morning. let's get over to david ingles. david: we finished
at 0.5%. this is what happened today. day we did fall underwater with the exception of a few minutes. he wouldn't be faulted to speculate that this is kind of the line in the sand that regulators now may have stepped in and started supporting the market. it is quite a swing. what is happening here is separate from asia-pacific. really feel the tailwind coming from wall street overnight. this should not change much. banks at 2.3% and
is caroline pointed out you are also getting today. let me wrap things up with a map of asia. daye off the highs for the for a lot of these markets. before i go let me mention this as well. we had some breaking news out of china. haveountry is said to started selling some of the treasury holdings. so they have started to sell this month and the have communicated sales with u.s. authorities. all of this i would imagine would bolster liquidity. where the fed can keep the currency relatively stable. jon: that's one of the reasons white yield has not fallen 1015 basis points despite the immense bounce off we have had in the
next couple of days. the open on the dax is remarkable with two percentage points higher in the dax has now arranged all the losses on the week and it is higher by one percentage point. in the u.s. look at that picture on your screen. the biggest jump since 2011 fueled by some dovish comments out of the fed. ready for lick off? not so much. lockhart suggested a hike could be complicated the new york president sounded concerned. >> from my perspective at this moment the decision to begin the normalization process seems less compelling to me that it was a few weeks ago but it could become more compelling by the time of the meeting. jon: for any further clues attention turns to the annual retreat and jackson hall, oil may. -- wyoming.
we will not hear from janet yellen but we will hear from stanley fischer. the head ofin global fx strategy at bnp paribas. >> said watching is hard enough. if those going to make it easier i would say watch janet yellen, stan and -- stanley fischer and william dudley. did william close the door on september? >> i think that seems to be the case. the greek crisis is the catalyst so from our perspective we think that even before the malaysian equity market was off the table we think the fed is data watching. unemployment is doing exactly what they wanted to do with falling and looking positive but what they need is more confidence on growth so from
that perspective they are data watching like you and i. >> traditionally the fed places less emphasis on markets than we would. having said that, there is no way they're going to start lift off. legend giantfund making some weight talking about qe4 the last couple of days. >> ido you think about it? think it is highly unlikely with the on a planet rate already through the roof. it is really not on the cards. think a more likely course would be to delay the liftoff. with unemployment where we are, sub 5.5% -- highly unlikely. jon: in china to stabilize the currency and they are leaking reserves. they are selling
dollar-denominated assets. i expect treasury yields to go lower and they do not. how does that complicate your fx strategy? interesting topic and hugely in focus. ownsey theme is that china huge amounts of foreign exchange reserves and it is down to around 3.6 because the have been intervening. the key point that we would argue is there is a secondary impact of that intervention. what they do is sell dollar see in white in the market which depletes there for exchange reserves and reduces their exposure to the dollar but in the current market they don't want lower exposure to the dollar so they then by the dollar back, not against the cmi but against the euro. so from that perspective the
secondary impact is to sell euro dollar. jon: is it having the same effect on china? x i think so. the central banks are likely to be intervening and depleting dollar reserves. me is thateme for the secondary impact is to rebalance my back dollars selling against europe. so what that means is the real flow is the selling of euro-dollar. jon: so when you see that, is this an entry point? >> we think from our perspective that this rises temporary. this is against the backdrop of quantitative easing. a powerful currency that tends to weaken. we heard yesterday that they could do even more so from that
perspective the ecb is not happy and from our perspective would certainly bank on euro-dollar falling back lower. jon: here is where the confusion starts for me. i can guess what is happening with treasury and i can guess what is happening with sterling but when it is driven internationally from somewhere like china, sterling does nothing for a few trading days and i do not understand what the driver is right now. what is driving sterling? >> i think the simple answer is what is driving all of g 10 equities. the fact that we have seen stabilization is a positive to get back to fundamentals. draw comparisons between united kingdom and the united states. we have significantly improving employment markets. low on the very interest rate side so time is
ticking for both the bank of england and the federal reserve so our view on the bank of england is it doesn't really change their focus. ago yououple of weeks and i would have had a different conversation. what a lot of people called a dovish inflation report and never one-sided pushing back once more. the other day the former ceo of pimco talked about the window being shut on the fed. we have sin the window shut on the bank of england several times before. is it shutting on the boe once again? >> i don't think so. i would argue that the market misinterpreted super thursday. everyone focused on that 8-1 vote but if you listened to mark carney he was very hawkish and blatant in his view that markets need to think about a rate hike. is only caveat i would say
it is highly unlikely they would preempt the fed. so if the fed delays are tightening i think the bank of england will need to delay that as well to jon: when i look at euro sterling, as far as you are concerned you keep your conviction short draghi, along carney? >> it is the trade but it is a tricky one. be theter trade would sterling against something like the australian dollar. this is what we put out. -- long sterling versus the australian dollar. it is currently coming close to 220 but we think it goes much higher. over the medium-term it could go to 250. jon: what is the target? >> certainly we think maybe the next two months but a longer one
may take significantly longer. jon: thank you very much for joining us this morning. nextg up in the show, up picture of the global jobs number. monsanto steps away from sergeant to after its final rejection. they miss estimates as china slows. 30 minutes into the session. 2% and the dax erasing the losses for the week. it is only thursday and we still have a couple training days left. join us after the short break.
jon: good morning and welcome back to bloomberg tv. equities are going across europe and one stock in particular is also getting. you k's biggest recruiter reporting earnings. they expect the double its offer rating profit by 2016 despite their nearly 10 million pound foreign-exchange headwind. i'm pleased to say it we the company's finance director. the question for me. australia specifically. solid numbers across the board including in australia. how does that feed in? >> it is too early to know.
that mining business is are ready down 80% over the last three years and therefore we don't have much further to go. i think after two to three years. we now have almost a year of consistent growth. consistent andry we expected to continue to grow something like 5%. what further impacts china is too early to tell. jon: in europe unite would sit here and discuss greece but now we talk about china. as an equity investor and look at anything with exposure to china if it is on the dax get rid of it. but are you feeling any pain? >> no. europe is superb. had 21 countries grow
by 10% or more. to gain so i think what we have seen is there has been no economic shock for two to three years they haven't changed -- changed jobs and are looking to find their next job. in it the markets you are is our strongest market and probably at the moment germany looks as the second strongest market so for us europe has picked up if anything. in australia has good growth but we do not know where the next six months will bring us. jon: the stock is up 1.8% in one of the reasons is you maintain your targets despite that fx headwind. it doesn't seem to be going away anytime soon. what is it that is causing the most pain now? >> the business is doing really well and for the moment we are not bothered.
if we look across the first two years of this economic recovery we've taken a 20 million pound hit on exchange and we have organically grown our profits by 60 million pounds. grow at 30nue to million year we will hit the 50 million target. not about changing summing in our business but doing the same. jon: wraps it's impressive that you have been able to maintain the targets as it gets harder, what is driving your ability to do that? >> two to three things. if we look at what has changed for all of us the economic recovery has been much earlier and much stronger. we just delivered 11% in the last year. the u.k. has definitely helped. back to the periphery of europe which we can debate will be three years or five years.
people will be more confident than the average person. professional people are moving on with their lives in finding their next jobs. those things together have driven 30 million in profit more than we would have expected. jon: investors like their dividends. with haze you have increased the dividends on last year so can you give us any guidance on that? >> we had a very clear policy on a core dividend which is sustainable and all particular scenarios. we had a lehman's run and we are happy with the call. they grow significantly for the next year and the year afterwards. the really exciting part is we could be doing specials in two years. so the policy is clear. in the normal years get the court dividends and in the could years get a meaningful special on top. if you had both together we could be distributing 100 million per year plus to our
shareholders. sweet seen quite a change in the last couple years and that is very close. first special in the next financial year. jon: so it is becoming very much a dividend play. going forward we have to talk politics. when we talk about it politically i will talk about the real business effect. are you seeing any kind of real is this effect? >> the real difficulty with this is there are some fabulous young engineers in singapore and india and our country needs them and most of those get caught under immigration and we have europe where there are free borders but certainly there are some really good people who will be great for our country. slightly harder to do internal transfers.
i struggle with the concept of businesses not being in to move their own people flexibly run the world. if i can move people into australia and the u.s. we need to continue to have that in the u.k.. in the professional route assigned -- as long as somebody has a firm income, why shouldn't we want those people. jon: thank you very much. that is the rep from hayes. let's keep it on business in terms of france were the annual movement for the enterprise of france is taking place. -- france's's biggest is this lobby. caroline is standing by. caroline: i'm here with the president representing more than 700,000 french top an ace. market tumbles. how are the french equities
reacting? >> we still don't know. and won'tust a bubble have much impact or if it is the start of long-lasting depression. we have to be careful because the chinese economy accounts for a third of the growth of the worldwide economy. so if it is a severe depression it can have an impact on everybody. we don't think it would be the the plan is to accelerate reforms in france in order to be sure we could face more and a farias problems in the future. >> just one year ago we had the premised are come in here and thato all these executives i love business. one year later are you disappointed with the reforms? >> i am not. the thing is that france is
under construction. this premise or has a strong will for reform and this is good news so the plan is to go to the takelanguage and to concrete actions on the floor. but we appreciate the will and the fact that he would like to do something and i think france is back because you see the gdp of france and i think it should increase by 1% to 2% this year. >> what do you think is the priority? the two problems is the labor market which should be more flexible on one side. but these issues have been taken up by francois hollande so i think we're on a good track and now have to be sure that
everything will move again in the next weeks and months. >> we have the latest unemployment figures last night. but it stillf 0.1% has a record at 3.5 5 million jobseekers in france. what do you think we should do here? >> it is important to make sure willesponsibility packed be put in place in the coming months. decrease the tax burden of france but this is ongoing. trust and restore confidence within the business community but the good news is there is positive sentiment in the business community so i think it is time to invest again. we urge the government to do the reforms. they have the will to do it. word, what do you
think is the biggest concern. is it domestic issues or china or greece? growing buthina is maybe people think it is just a bubble. thing is toortant make sure that reforms are on a good track. we start to see people reinvesting because it is like a company. france is in recovery. you.to jon: a fascinating interview thank you for that. coming up after this show, one of the biggest deals of the year abandoned. we will break down the details of why the monsanto deal broke down. but let's bring up the equity markets. stockse 100 with only one in the red. ingo higher and we have tax
jon: good morning and welcome back to "on the move." let's bring back the equity markets. the stock 600 goes higher by more than 2.5%. we are up by 124 points. we are higher by three percentage points. up 3%anghai composite was and went into the red and finished the session. fragile been a very market. look at the other asset classes. a januaryhat kissed high and then comes back down. we are higher up 0.1%.
yields go bunds higher. that is the situation in the wider asset classes. let's back to the stoxx and get the biggest -- caroline: let's look at one of the ones leading the chart. bouygues. the reason is numbers. yes, sales can down by 1% for the whole company, but wait, telecom is doing nicely indeed. upping their profit target for the year. remember, it rejected the $11 billion offer on the table in june.
it's charging up some 6% and reining in spending. the we will be going into detail a little bit later. asia is still a weak point china in particular and the u.s. is taking a charge on the week market their. -- go molto -- 5.3%.o up -- down second half, closure of the u.s. payments service. that will limit their year on year growth but they see double-digit growth for the full-year profit. are not liking the fact that they have miss this. hyde trying her hardest to find some red ink.
europe's highest flying equity this year. it seems the equities from emerging markets. investors have been piling into the wind turbine which was the best performer on the stock 600 until now. new era has more on the story. talk me through. >> what we have seen is a drop of 22% since the end of july. this is notable because previous to that the stock had more than doubled. with happening is investors were piling into camesa and they were piling in to benefit from surging demand in emerging markets like china, brazil and india and they really believes in the stock's growth. we have seen this exodus and that has given investors the jitters. these are what analysts are saying not game us a itself. -- gamesa itself.
because thel bad stock is still up about 70% this year. inis not the best performer this week it has fallen to second place. jon: if i look at this, wind turbine makers have been the top performers, what is happening here? >> it has been a high-performing sector and these are the couple reasons. there were some struggles from the financial crisis. to the likes of gamesa the could cut quite drastically and that made a difference to investor's thisf in them but also drive to make greenhouse gases really benefiting these stocks. for example, barack obama's
clean power plan and in china you have rising greenhouse gases . this giving these stocks a boost. so it might be popping now but it is not all fine and dandy because it also is quite a volatile industry. back to you. we will keep it on equities and talk about a deal that is not going to happen. makerthe swiss pesticide snubbed a bid of $46 billion. shares plunged by a record 18% on the news. matt, this is a confusing one. yesterday we talked about how much monsanto wants this deal and they surprised everyone, or the driver for this collapsing?
>> hugh grant -- no relation to the other hugh grant, the chief executive of monsanto has said repeatedly they were prepared for this to be a long process and they would settle in for a siege if they had to and , whatday all of a sudden precipitated this was the injection of this offer of a significant amount of money. jon: this story was fresh to you and you would reach for the market moves and say that is what is driving this. does it have anything to do what is happening here? syngentathing that pointed to in their own rationale to the rejection was monsanto was largely made up of shares.
they said based on the valuation they are using it equaled for good 70 francs and they said if you look at where the stocks are trading now it is more like 430. so this incredible volatility and turmoil doesn't help you. you need stable asset prices to make it work and we don't have them it gets very complicated. jon: when a look at the asset prices think about the future of the two companies. is it a future as one or is that over and can we say it is over? don't know if this particular transaction will come back but what makes sense is that they consolidate. one way or another you get from whatever it is down to four. there are a lot of people around the other big names. i think we have not seen the last of musical chairs in this sector. jon: you touched on something.
stable asset prices. environment going forward, what does this volatility mean? >> that is the trillion dollar question. as of now we are headed for a record year for m&a eclipsing 2007. so far, we are on our way. rising tide people will try their best to find a way to make deals happen but with as much as people are paying it is the major currency. if you don't know what you're equity will be worth tomorrow it is hard to make that work because you have to be that much more determined. i think unless some of it comes down a bit it could put some of the brakes on these big transactions. jon: thank you for breaking it down for us. still to come, it has been a volatile week in the stock market.
an effort to lower financing costs. greek prime minister has ruled out leading a coalition with the opposition party. he says syriza's party would not put together a government with a new democracy. monsanto has abandoned its attempt to buy syngenta after they snubbed the bid. send -- syngenta shares public -- dropped 18%. find stocks in the red. afters one for you down the number two distiller missed estimates with its results. caroline hyde has the numbers and she will break them down. kirilenko martel, cognac and
havana club falling today after profits missed analyst estimates. the fiscalnto what year had in store. worth 2.6% and we get just 2% growth in terms of profitability and asia is still the weak point. the claim to flame is that the number one is an india. but it is not paying off. china's sales fall. they are improving. there were down 2% and this time last year they were down more than 20%. but the continuing move away from a higher and scotch whiskey is continuing to hurt them. in the u.s. there were some tough challenges as well. , are trying to go
very high and and is not working. a 404 million euro charge. the u.s. is hurting russia is hurting and china is still hurting. area that they can claim to be number one. the rest of asia is important as well. almost 40% of their sales in the previous year but no real lipservice to what is going on in china. of course the stock market route that was hitting the market throughout july, nothing. get a challenging and volatile macroeconomic environment. not much in terms of transparency. doesn't give you much of their insight as to what is happening in china. let's look what the issues are.
crackdown and extravagant spending. the focus is on the middle class. maybe that is what is inciting optimism for the future. that is what we are being told the moment because they will focus on the middle-class. perhaps not so high-end anymore. jon: the slowdown in the growth economy is slowing exports in the eurozone although there are recent concerns. the greatest hit to growth may have come already. let's bring in david, which emergent market economy created the biggest threat to the euro's economy? >> currently the biggest hit has slowdown russia. the in growth has been so precipitous that despite the fact that fewer exports go to russia the hit has been harder than that from china where, as
my colleague in asia is to say it is sloan -- slowed from being the fastest growing in the world to being the fastest in the world. jon: is it being offset by any bright spots? when i get these things in my inbox it is all about doom and gloom. onif you look at the data nominal exports you can see that this huge slowdown in exports has been offset by an even larger rise to the u.s.. so while that slowdown from russia has hit it has been cushioned by the improvement in growth in the u.s. and by the depreciation of the euro versus the dollar to jon: what people think over the -- about the qb program has fascinated me. we began thinking about running out of assets for them to buy and then we think that them
increasing the program and now we have a slowdown and fears about china. where are we? do they stick to their wording go to september 2016 and that is it? >> draghi has already highlighted that the link -- the ecb is keep an eye on this story. if anything maybe it slightly increases the possibility of qe being extended but so far the slowdown has not been great enough to alter the plan of the ecb. jon: thank you very much for making that down for us. the market has been one of the most volatile in the last five years. do -- tanvirn sand sandip. we are watching the vicks of vicks. talk to me. what is going on? >> couple weeks ago we had the
biggest reversal followed by the biggest rally since 2011 which is why you have excessive volatility. if you look at the volatility itself that has risen to all-time high and typically it situationreverting that eventually grinds lower. we are living in a world of predominant volatility that will remain the typically what they puts that have longer they grow by shorting other ones. the look at the vick which is a cost different majority it has significantly converted so you would be selling the shorter data to fund your longer data and equity portfolios generally have that on continuously. jon: when you look at it, we were bouncing along the bottom people would say it is not there or not coming.
echo >> iin elevated think we do. global equity indices are repricing growth as well as the credibility of banks and with inflation where it is i think volatility will remain there for next month. we have macro indicators coming so that u.s. next week will keep the volatility elevated. typically it gradually fades off so it is a great trade if you catch it at the right point. jon: monday if i had said we would be down soon i imagine you would a trade on equities but it didn't happen. we went down where people expected us to be. have to factor in what is going on with central-bank reserves. how does it factor into the traditional safe havens? >> when you're trading you what
to look when you have expected volatility how the other assets are behaving. so historically gold should be up and we have not seen that. that is actually a bad sign for gold. he basically do not want to fight that and you just short it to it has gone from 1160 1130. there widening that to realize that the dollar will effectively help and support their local currency. jon: another reason to short goal. tanvir sandhu, thank you very much. will take you through everything you need to know the rest of the day. it is about one event in the usa. the fed and the jackson hole symposium.
tweet me yours and i will bring out a top three tomorrow. we will wrap up some of the charts over the week ahead. do that and get in touch with me on twitter. that is a most it for the first hour of trading. the pulse is coming up next with manus cranny and francine lacqua. what is coming up? to -- where going evaluations matter. janet yellen warned that they were a bit top he and they have got a little bit fresher. stale, some might say. manus: is it a good value? we will take anything anywhere. jackson hole begins and there is a wonderful five-year, five-year, five-year. the wonderful outlook is at a
five-year low. the fed does not have an inflation program there below target. what will stanley fischer say on saturday? i like the fact that you brought in the context of what we have lost. equivalent to what has actually happened in china. the act -- argument would be that the correlation is utterly and entirely irrelevant over it was mathematically irrelevant. i have to say that word for markets because this was made up by 80% of domestic investors. everybody is just looking for a reason to sell these markets. another when should be
installed forget they have been cutting rates since november. when you look what the united withs is doing, do you go this idea that the window for the fed just shut hard? manus: in his view piece this morning he writes that the fed should not and will not come to the rescue of equity markets and he outlined a number of different reasons. day -- 210he billion. that is much the chinese have put in in terms of liquidity and it is the most amount they have added. jon: that is manus coming up with francine lacqua after the break. let's bring up the equity markets. ftse 100 with almost every single company in the green. the dax are erasing the week's losses. did you try and keep up with the shanghai composite overnight or
francine: on the upcoming european and asian markets tracked the biggest gain in four years. manus: the positive move snaps a two-week selloff. that arranged $8 trillion. francine: the u.s. fed president says the rates look less compelling. ♪ francine: welcome to the pulse. live from bloomberg's european headquarters i'm francine lacqua. manus: