brussels extends its terror warnings. schools on the subway remain close. manus: bhp touches a 10-year low as commodity crunch bites. francine: 3/4 of investors are inting on a fed rate hike december. be. third quarter gdp set to revised today. welcome to "the pulse" live from london. adding breaking news in terms of in the lastewsin
half hour, that there was a jet shot down by turkish forces on the syria oborder. that was a russian jet. the jet was warned several times to stand down. we have to look at the wider implication in a very, very volatile region. have ryan chilcote standing by. we are getting more details now that the jet ignored repeated warnings. they pulled the rip cord. what do you know about the context of this? the turkish presidency's office confirming that turkey has shut down -- shot down a russian jet in syrian skies. the president's office saying this jet had actually moved into turkish airspace, was warned repeatedly to get out, and then was shot down. we know the two pilots of that
russian jet confirming it was a was shot down. they had the opportunity to eject before the plane was shot down. politically speaking, this is the first time we have a nato country shooting down a russian jet in syrian skies. if brings to the forefront whole concern about geopolitical risk in syrian skies, where you have so many aircraft up there, both by thee coalition, led united states, france and russia and syria on the other side of this conflict. the good news from a geopolitical perspective is that would appear these pilots had a chance to eject and are now somewhere on the ground in syria. so, question becomes, what happens to these pilots? rae they -- are they taken prisoner as some of suggested by ethnic turks operating in syria, fighting the assad government?
and what russia does about the fact that it now has two servicemen on the ground in the opposition. syrian manus: thank you very much. we see an immediate spike lower in the turkish lira. the dollar higher. let's cross to brussels now which is still on high state of alert for another week, as authorities maintain a warning that the islamic state plans to attack highly populated areas amid security. services and the city will begin reopening tomorrow. international leaders are positioning themselves in a fight against islamic state as president francois hollande has to the white house. a russian plane shot down across that syrian border. let's get this in context with hans nichols. moreis, again, more and
escalation. a context around what is going on in brussels today. have: now that we still locked down. the subway is still not running. the security checks are still there, but everything will be opening tomorrow. the thing is, the terror alert remains. they have caught the main suspect they are looking for. salah abdeslam, so that threat is still out there. the government is trying to get back more towards normalcy but not let down their guard in terms of terror. we have more soldiers on the streets, a much bigger security presence you can feel when you walk around brussels right now. basically, they have to strike a balance, china to get the city back to normal but also not downplaying the terrace griscom. -- the terrorist risk.
jones: that is why they put off till tomorrow to reopen the subway. they are going to bring a next of police from outside brussels to help with security of the subway. they are going to have that in place. francine: thank you so much. now, hans is also standing by. hollande meets obama in washington before francois ho on friday.s putin i imagine a lot of the discussion will be on this russian jet shot down on the turkish-syrian border. ass: think of hollande diplomatic. before the jet was shot down, i stress everything has changed because of this incident, before an american official told bloomberg news the u.s.
recognize there had to be some sort of offering to francois hollande. they had to give them something, maybe even expression of support of what russia is doing in terms of bombing islamic state. the most optimistic scenario, before the jet was shot down, according to american officials, was you could maybe divide regions up in syria. .s. responsible for a certain region and russia for another. the eye of -- the idea of sharing intelligence is not on the table. with obama today. then he is back in europe. then he is in russia. then on friday, he is back in france -- excuse me, he has a meeting in berlin in between. i suspect it is not shuttle diplomacy. hollande can play an interlock a row between nato and russia. manus: he also has that meeting with merkel. this situation is escalating. the terrorists have traveled to
germany. they travel from france back into belgium. there are serious questions in terms of franco-german relationship. hans: it seem strong. hollande and merkel have worked through a lot of -- the greek crisis together. in some ways angela merkel's biggest problem is to mesko. -- is domestic. keeping her party from getting too critical on the refugee issue. on friday there is a public review on angela merkel where they say the policy needs to change. you have heard a lot of criticism. however, the link between the terrorism in france and the migration/refugee story that has dominated here the last three months, t hat link has not been made. clearly, that frequently by german political leaders.
there is a measure of respect and wait and see whether or not there is an nexus there. i when not conflate those two issues. very few political leaders are making the connection. that said, hollande has a difficult week ahead of him. it will be hard to have deliverables. he will have explained to do in hery capital he's at as asked for help in fighting isis in syria. give you a quick check on some of the markets in terms of the reaction we have had a move in the turkish lira. it is one of the week's in an emerging market basket over the past months. -- one of the weakest currencies. francine: this is a risk off situation. stocks dropped on the back of that russian jet. let's bring in our guest. there is so much going on. we have brussels still in lockdown.
now we have a nato country, turkey, downing a russian jet. how do you cut you might risk? james: i certainly would not overplay the amount of risk in downing a russian jet. i suspect politicians will be grateful for what has happened putine it's cleaar mr. has been testing nato. he's been getting into british airspace, being buzzed off by the raf. this is an example where the turkey, the muscularity -- francine: this is at a time where france wants and needs russia as an ally to combat islamic state. james: absolutely. it is a complex situation. but it is incorrect to say that russia should be carrying the burden for resulting the syrian crisis. we need to have a coordinated approach to this. there is nothing that happened
today that says that cannot go forward. manus: that is what hollande is trying to effect this week in terms of this global round robin and gainingfavor consensus. what is that going to mean for the world in terms of looking at the middle east? is it a better construct? james: they should be less risky if we can get global cooperation in resolving the isis issue. what has not been discussed at all is what is the preferred political framework for syria. you jump to the conclusion that everybody would like -- them not to be there. equally clear that russia would like assad to stay in power. so, what we are talking about means it is almost impossible for someone like yourself to calculate risk in this type of environment.
look of the stocks. we have the downing of a russian jet. this is by no means to make this ismall case, but micexi down. people are on a tweet anything that happens. james: i don't think we should overplay this risk. we live in an enormously peaceful era. i grew up in the vietnam war, the cold war -- it seems that if there is a shock, central banks would have very little tools to deal with them. james: central banks have demonstrated that they are more interested in markets. they are far more responsive to what happens in markets than they are two real economic numbers. manus: lets the boy from the policy. et's step away from the policy. we had a huge selloff in the s&p
500 in the summertime. volatility had been eradicated, dropped by 65%. thatwe're beginning to see possibly reemerged. are markets overly accepting of or do you think they may shutter on the back of what comes from the fed? james: i think the rate hike is largely priced. if you said u.s. equities are going to end the year, i would say the 2100 s&p 500 ends 2015 with numbers that are reasonable. i say 2300 in 2016. by applying a reasonable price earnings valuation metric to the market to accommodate the probability of interest rates remaining low, a beautiful you get a fat hike in december which has been identified sa the consensus -- as the consensus expectation. francine: thank you so much. the firsthost for
half hour. manus: mining stocks have driven declines. copper and nickel trading at the lowest prices in six years following a rise in the industrial metals. energy and material stocks are down 30% in asia this year. francine: passenger bookings for flights in paris during christmas are down 13%. that is according to a travel data specialist. in cancellations a week after the attacks. hass: hillary clinton attacks the merger of pfizer and allergan as use of tax loopholes. the combined company would have attacks address in ireland to keep its liability all. aboutne: up next, we talk
had warned a russian jet 10 times before taking it out of the sky. european stocks are under pressure from the start of trade. more to do with the miners coming lower. you saw obviously paris suffering a drop in bookings. bhp billiton of it a 10-year low. -- amid a 10-year low. we can have a look at u.s. equity futures dipping as well at this stage in the sodow. the s&p had its best week all year. francine: look at what is showing up. i like that e.c. box. i'm not sure what that is. but i think we are looking at futures. our guest is still with us. james made a good point that it is not the first aircraft that has been shot down in the history of russia and nato. your advice for markets and
people watching us is so this jet has been downed, let's see the repercussions. james: a measured view. francine: we started the conversation asked about risk risk shouldu.k.'s be perceived on the market. what are your three main concerns? levels of inventory in global marketplaces and then deflation. i would say we should be getting improved numbers coming out of europe, because inventory levels have been following. it is going to be interesting to see the revisions to the u.s. data, because inventories are heavy there. been a build across north asia and that makes me feel nervous. that will be risk number one. risk number two has clearly thought to be what happens to fiscal policy globally, because it is clear that central banks have done all they can. important.cy is excessive tightening a policy will be extremely damaging for a global economic recovery.
the third issue which i think is huge is what happens to the unresolved challenges of 2015 of which there are two significant wants. china.f of excesses in the bubbles of property, investment and credit. in europe, the resolution of the greek crisis. heston come. -- it has to come home to roost in 2016. manus: beating up on that, death of deflation. thatrgan basically said headline inflation will catch up with core inflation. if we have lower oil prices, we have a lot of -- lack of q.e., the death of deflation, that makes for pretty good position for european equities. james: it is very early to call the end of deflation. what is happening in the united states. manus: i do not necessarily
agree with the article. u.s.: 25 cents of inflation is traded globally. therefore, if we had 10% roughly of deflation in global trading goods and services, we need 3.5 domestic inflation to have a headline and the core equal liberating at zero. we made 7% to mystic inflation. that would frighten the -- we % domestic inflation. overall, when you look at equities, is there anything you're looking at buying into next year? james: absolutely. quality growth turns out a must-have. an opportunity to buy arm holdings. a company that has been vilified in the market actually knows how to make money for a shareholders. francine: even if it is priced in pounds? james: i do not have a problem.
i hedge a lot of currencies because currencies are difficult to get right. manus: we saw a major pharma deal go through. or in the offing. let's see what the politicians can do to nullify this. but his year has been -- but this year has been a blinding your for m&a. 2015 has been the boom yera. we have not seen anything like this since 2007. what does 2016 hold? will there be consolidation in metals, miners, oil? james: we have this extraordinary environment of low growth. companies do not want to -- and very low cash rates and bond yields. companies are prepared to borrow money. they have supported the payments havevidends, albeit they increased leverage. they have bought back their own shares, magnifying earnings-per-share.
and paying back chief executives who are paying on that metric. and thirdly, they have been out on the m&a trail, saying i will have a bit of that. whether these are going to be good deals we will have to see. if we were to getting up and -- in growth, m&a would reduce significantly. francine: thanks so much. manus: up next, it's all about the banks, the central banks. 3/4 of investors see the fed moving next mud. and -- next month. mark carney talks inflation in parliament today. we are on central-bank watch. ♪
>> interest rates will go higher, no question. when that happens, it is going to scare people but don't worry. it is only after three or four interest rate increases that you have to worry. francine: that was jim rogers saying he sees rates going hi gher. odds of a rate hike are at 72% as pimco sees probability that the fed will move at last. 72% is a very high odd. manus: i wish they would absolutely get on with it. from the fed to the boe, mark carney testifies before the treasury select committee on the november inflation report.
also speaking on the chief economist andy haldane. and mpc members. richard jones us. let me come straight to you. we touched on this theme of the end of "on the move." i can't see how carney can play anything but a dove card today because he has to wait and see what the fed actually does, and wait for the ecb. limitsink both of those are at play. it would look strange a couple weeks after delivering the qir to change tack now. i mean, one of the things they highlighted in the quarterly inflation report was the strength of sterling and how that is happening a dampening effect on meeting inflation targets. higher than 2.5% it was. francine: what is your take? a fed hike is a done deal? is a highre
probability of a hike. you made an interesting observation, the dovish hike. because i would be convinced say, it. yellen would is going to be gradual. she will want to impress on the market not to get overexcited. francine: because she is data dependent. james: i think she is more market dependent. i think that is the irony of the issue. of course, it is dangerous. they are being asked to rescue the global economy and markets from the slower -- saying guys, we spent enough money already. mr. carney, he has a real challenge to keep a lid on the british housing market which has because of this cocktail of strong jobs numbers plus low money rates has inflation given asset a big push. where we have price deflation, their asset price inflation. mr. carney should be nervous of
that. manus: does that mean 2016 could be more macro prudential tools, trying to quell that asset price inflation? james: yes. manus: the consequences of that for you as an investor? james: to certainly believe that we should be looking more at the europe in u.k. rather than united states in terms of one companies will deliver prices that are positive relative to expectations. richard: i think 2016 will be the europe that go potential policy. push back on the timing of liftoff which is in early 2017 but they will not push back fairy vigorously. i think it will be a slight push back. i think they are worried about the pond. -- the pound. as james highlights on the difficulty with the housing markets and what they worry there, i think it will do that to macro prudential policy. francine: when you look at the pound, at what point does it become a hindrance for
exporters? at what point, does the bank if it was start worrying about it? james: i would say the rate that i look at more closely is the euro-sterling rate. around 70 which is where we have been hugging on either side for the past couple weeks, that is an area where i think if the ecb cuts aggressively next month, that could be trading 67, 68. in that becomes a big issue for the bank of england. they are not happy with where it is. they are more concerned about where it will go with the ecb acted aggressively. manus: one thing that all central bankers will be keenly focused on -- and this goes back to the inflation-deflation argument -- the drop, everybody has come on the air and said it is going to drop a lot of the numbers. here we are, venezuela warning -- are slumpingdities everyday. that is a critically important --
is a: i think it significant worry because we still have an imbalance of supply and demand. these prices do not move on their own. they move because there is still too much being produced relative to too little demand. and we have too little aggregate demand in the global economy to get growth going. measures in place to get demand moving. we have limited demand driven to the housing market. apart from that, people are saving. francine: james, thank you so much for staying with us. the chief investment officer at ccla investment management. and richard jones. you up to speed with top headlines. brussels extended its highest level terror alert into next week warning i.s. terrace plan to attack highly populated areas. schools and subways will be close for one more day before reopening tomorrow. one of the 16 people arrested has been charged in connection with the tax in paris. -- with attacks in paris.
francine: hollande travels to washington to meet with barack obama. pushing to put together a coalition to tackle i.s.. that includes both the u.s. and russia. angela merkel tomorrow and vladimir putin in moscow on thursday. manus: turkey has said it shot down a russian jet near the border with northwestern syria after policy ignored repeated warnings that it was violating turkish airspace. russia's defense ministry denied the aircraft had left syrian airspace while at knowledge and that one of its just had crash in the country. the pilots ejected. and a search is ongoing for them. the ministry said this on their website. 4%.sian stocks down 1.5
dollar-ruble on change. francine: there is twitter talk and press saying that there were three pilots. two ejected, one was taken by syrian rebels. it is ongoing. as you were mentioning, the markets had a plunge, risk-averse. happier news now. the cop 21 summit in paris kicks off next week and expectations are high. president obama says he's optimistic about a deal. manus: yes. and that's ahead of the summit we are joined by eco-age founder and creative director -- she's here for the bloomberg, a huge event, good business conference where she will speak about how businesses can achieve growth to sustainability. great to have you with us. >> good morning. manus: sustainability. it is very much a buzzword of many institutions. tell us what you do to make that
become a reality, because you work with a variety of brands. a buzzword.ility is and sadly sometimes means a little bit confusing what it really means. and a lot of businesses tackle sustainability without keeping also in consideration the human rights aspect of it and social justice. in order to have a sustainable business, you have to take into consideration not only your resources, the sustainability side of it, but also the social people aspects and the that form your business all the way down the supply chain. to the point that sometimes with the businesses we work with, we take the social justice part of it more seriously and heavier unilever- the ceo
said, once you have taken care of people, you have taken care of the environment. francine: we used to watch you on the red carpet. you were spearheading the movement for don't wasite, recycle -- -don't waste. what has changed in the last 5, 10 years. people are much more in tune. is it the younger generation that want to work for the environment? >> it is the younger generation for sure but also the fact that some businesses are deciding to truly lead the way and realize that if you still want to ha ve a profitable business in 15-20 years time, unless you start to tackle that part of your business, your business model is final. if you take fashion which is my big enemy. as a business model it is completely finite because it relies on exportation of the
earth's resources and tatian of people. -- and exploitation of people. slave labor and consumers who are addicted to buy. on the other side you see orinesses such as unilever, maxon spencer that are really ctive,d with effe transparent and accountable measures. you have the first environmental profit and loss report. unilever launching the first human rights report. maxon spencer having plan a. of what you do is called the green carpet challenge. i see it on your website. >> what is it? manus: i get what it is. i want to challenge her because it is a beautiful website but heavyre very cash
brands that can afford to engage or services and go for this moniker of responsibility. brands thatng with can afford this. the reality of it is, many business cannot afford this kind of engagement. >> who are the businesses who cannot afford it? i want to challenge you. manus: a small business somewhere in the north of ireland producing beautiful italian leather goods. >> we work on two scales. first of all, the challenge was started on the red carpet as a movement. it is now the communication arm of the company. we do the activation -- on pr oducts. but we work with a lot of big is tbusinesses. and we take them to a sustainable journey. because change happens in time. and implementing change. but also as an advocate, i work for free.
we also work with a lot of small businesses without shouting and without saying too much, but we do. we connect with small supplies with big clients. sometimes a small manufacture in england or in italy or in emngladesh and we help th scale their businesses by putting them in touch with some of these big businesses. francine: as a consumer, how do shopping,try, i like i try and do good but i find it very difficult. i don't want to spend a fortune every time. is there an index where i can find information? >> there isn't yet, but there is -- as an active citizen, i prefer the word citizen then consumer. consumer is very sad already. this is what we do, we buy every day. but rather than seeing who is
whynot takeis good, a step back and say do i need this thing i am about to buy? this is why we launched campaign because it was lucy seg al, the journalist and broadcaster who said, if only people could just stop for a second when they buy something and think, will i wear it a minimum of 30 times? this is the problem today that fast fashion and fast food. fast fashion has addicted us to a cycle of buying. we don't even think about it when we buy now. we don't. francine: especially if it is on the internet. because we need to spur economies but livia make some great points. what a pleasure to have you on "the pulse". manus: indeed. so you're going to be moderating the panel.
the shooting down of a russian jet by turkey. the video shows the moment the plane was had. ignored repeated warnings that it was by leading turkish airspace. that is according to the turkish military pick the russians may have another story. managing editor for international government is following development on this breaking story. he joins us now. exactly what did we know because there are two sides of the story, and i guess they do not match up? andrew: it is very early. it identify at 9:20, this jet. it repeatedly warned, it warned 10 times. at 9:24, the jet was intercepted by two turkish f-16's that were patrolling. it was engaged in crash. russia says the jet was always over syrian airspace. and it is a bit unclear right now. seems like they yare saying it might be taken down from the ground -- they are saying it might've been taken down from the ground.
manus: this is a nato country. in responsible be critical terms of escalating rd escalating the situation. it's still too early to garner any sense about response, but give us your take? andrew: what happened to the pilots? were the pilots killed? we heard they might've ejected safely. if they did, who has them? iswas an area which ish fightersy turk loyal to erdogan. we hear the russian helicopters are searching for them. there might be fighting in the region. but that would be the next step in terms of how it happens is what happens to these pilots. francine: what does it mean geopolitically? is it too son. this is an embarrassment to vladimir putin. -- is it too soon?
andrew: it is very messy. you remember when jordan lost the pilot and the pilot was burnt alive inside of a cage. it was a turning point for the war. you can see how the small lives of their own. putin meeting with the king of jordan today. and a big question mark will be to see how putin reacts. turkey is a member of nato. .e cannot respon militarily for the next couple hours, it will be what happened to the pilots. manus: thank you very much. francine: now let's go to charting the markets wi mark barton. th i'm sure you have a lot of fallout from that downed russian jet. mark: good morning to you. this is the one intraday chart for the dollar against the lira. the dollar is rising 6/10 of 1%.
fallingish lira is today. just to reiterate after the nation's military shot down the russian jet near the border with northwestern syria, after it violated turkish airspace. russia's micex stock index is down by 1.9%, its biggest drop in two months. the lira is the world's third worst performing currency this year. want to move on to commodities once again there in the spotlight. this is the bloomberg world mining index. 81is an index essentially of global mining stocks. bhp billiton is one of them. its lowest level in seven years today. the world's biggest mining company, it faces a downgrade to its credit rating in the next 12 months. standard & poor's says the move response tohp's falls in iron ore in oil prices.
the portions of this index very much tied to the fortunes of industrial metals. an index gauging the industrial metals has fallen to its lowest level since 2000. platinum may prove to be a good bet after slumping to a seven-year low. just looking at one currency that is rising against the dollar today is the malaysian riggit. the world's best performing emerging market currency. crude oil rising for a second day. saudi arabia yesterday reiterating its commitment to stabilize the global iol market -- the global oil market. is one of the worlds worst-performing major emerging market currencies this year because of china slowdown. the decline in oil and the prospect of a rate hike in the united states but it is rising today, up by 1.4% against the
bloomberg.com. manus: these are the top headlines. mining stocks have driven declines with copper and nickel trading at the lowest prices in almost six years following a rout in industrial metals. energy and material stocks are down 13% in asia this year. theared to a 2.7% fall in wider benchmark. francine: almost five months say the rebound, they managers need to slow the bonus process. one london agreement firm says that cryan has canceled christmas. manus: turkey shot down a russian jet near the border with northwestern syria after policy ignored repeated warnings that it was violating turkish airspace. russia's defense ministry denies that the aircraft ever left syrian airspace while at knowledge and that one of its
jets has crashed in the country. the pilots ejected. and a search is ongoing for them. ire ministry said this on the website. markets initially reacted. the micex down 1.5%. the dollar-ruble unchanged. with us is the author of "the history of modern france." we talked to you in the paris attacks happen. isguess now the next -- understanding not only the future of europe and its link to terrorism but the situation in the middle east. how do you see the turkish downing of a russian jet? it was obviously mistake, or was it? >> i mean, i do not think either side would have gone for this cautiously. it was a mistake waiting to happen. given the disarray among the various forces fighting in syria . of course, what francois
hollande has taken leadership of the campaign, is trying to do this week -- he met david cameron today. he is meeting obama, putin and will be in contact with the chinese. he is trying to put for a coalition that will unite against isis in syria. this event does not help. manus: this is going to warn the likes of cameron in terms of the reality of engagement. it is something for the populace to bear in mind. in terms of the immediacy of today, and today is about putin. once we know more details of factual what is happened. so far we understand from the russians that it never left syrian airspace. putin's response is going to be very important. is that a fair -- >> absolutely. this is the crucial thing. we are looking at what putin will say. what is hoped is he will take a low-profile approach to this ans this was an accident
but not make a big russian nationalist thing out of it. it is embarrassing. when you get involved in this kind of thing, there is a potential for embarrassment. ato member. n so you have got that dimension coming in, too. manus: let's move the discussion along. national and its capital, two hours away from london is in lockdown day four. hollande currying global favor. made thisne, you point this morning -- the potential longer-term ramifications for hollande. all of this happened on this watch. these terrorists escaped on his watch. they crossed orders -- they crossed borders. this could have an impact on hollande. >> right now as the war president, he has done the marshall thing that plays well in france. he has put himself forward as the link man on coalition.
the french playing a big diplomatic role. he's handled it pretty well over the joint session of parliament and so on. his problem is two fold. first of all, as we see, as in belgium, there is no telling where the next attack may come. if there is another attack in france or linnked to f-- linked will raise aat lot of questions about his strategy. the other question is fine, you are doing all these things now, but why didn't you do them earlier? that is the undercurrent in france. francine: you have marie le pen and nicolas sarkozy that seems quite strong. many said never again. he seems quite presidential when you listen to him. he's taking a much stronger stance which may be dangerous. >> except that nicolas sarkozy
faces opposition within the party. from the former prime minister and foreign minister. he was statesmanlike on television over the weekend. he's playing the elder statesman role. then sarkozy's prime minister has also come into the frame. on the right, you have a complicated situation. this is hollande's best chance of getting reelected in 2017. le pen takes a big chunk of the vote. he goes to the second round against marie le pen and wins. manus: terror is going to feature in all of the politics for the next number of years in terms of spending on defense, political posturing. are we entering a new phase in terms of europe? >> we are where the national security state becomes more important.
and protecting citizens becomes, comes back to the forefront and we have taken it for granted for a long time. nwow the idea of the state protecting you, not just providing welfare, but materially protecting you from attacks will become more important. you saw hollande's speech. he said, well, cutting the deficit has to take second place to this. on the economic front, france will not be expected to be held to its spending targets. francine: fair enough. >> but it will have an effect. francine: they do so much for your insight there. later today, we have got bank of england governor mark carney. he is to testify in front of the treasury select committee. after his inflation report. then we get the second reading of february gdp. francine: we will get a gauge on the strength of the housing market with case-shiller.
shutine: turkey says it down the russian jet near the border with syria after pilots ignored violent -- pilots ignored warnings that it was violating airspace. schools and subways have remained closed for an extra day. low andouches a 10 year the commodity crunch continues to bite. the morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance," i am francine lacqua with tom keene. implications c