mark:. -- i am mark halperin. john: i am john heilemann. with all due respect to joe biden, it is nice to have you back. greetings from pasadena, california. on the show tonight, the president's last hurrah, and gop escalation. first, corey seeger on the rise -- bernie sanders on the rise. he is leading in new hampshire and in iowa. 14% in a monmouth poll

and 5% in a iowa poll. shade joe biden hours and a past 24 stunning ratcheting up of rhetoric by clinton and her daughter, chelsea, on the campaign trail today, and there's only one conclusion -- the prospect of a sanders sweep states in thewo nomination process is that real. at a campaign event today, she cranked things up to 11. >> do not talk to me about standing up to corporate interests. i have the scars to show for it. i am proud of every single one of them. we have a big difference over guns. i think it is a telling difference.

if you're going to go around saying you stand up to special interests, stand up for the most powerful special interests, the gun lobby. roll medicare, medicaid, affordable care act, and private health insurance into a national system and turn it over to the states to administer. that is the revolution he is talking about, i am worried, folks. john: and all our years on planet earth, we have never seen what we are about to show you on television. chelsea clinton playing the role of political attacker. >> senator sanders wants to dismantle obamacare, the chip program, medicare, private insurance. republicans in congress have voted against the affordable care act 55 times not because

they want to replace it but because they want to get rid of it. i worry if we give republicans a democratic commission -- permission to do that, we will before thean era affordable care act that will strip millions of people of health insurance. currently, there is a $19 trillion gap between what senator sanders has proposed and how he has articulated paying for the proposals. that is troubling. john: how is bernie sanders responding? his campaign put out a statement saying the clinton campaign is mischaracterizing his position on health care. the senator was swaggering away at the forum we were at in des moines. >> she has been getting more aggressive with you. >> yeah. inevitable that the

candidate for the democratic nomination may not be so inevitable today. i have known hillary clinton for 25 years. i have respect for her. but what we are looking at is an establishment politician. i think it is too late for establishment politicians and economics. john: mark, hillary clinton, chelsea clinton beating up on bernie sanders. is she getting tough with sanders, finally? issue panicking? -- issue panicking? mark: i am stunned watching chelsea clinton go on the attack. they are trying to attack bernie sanders on health care. he supports single-payer. i am stunned by the whole thing. i will say that you and i spent a couple days in iowa. we saw bernie sanders.

there is no doubt he has built something real. stakes are, but the immense. i guess she feels she has no choice. john: we are in the same boat. chelsea clinton was 12 years old when we started covering her. she is now a grown woman. never have i seen it before. she said only nice things about her mother, never attacked a barack obama or john edwards. mark: kind of amazing. john: this attack is not just strange politically. it is so disingenuous. they are arguing that what he wants to do is strip away health care from people. that he wanted to get rid of the affordable care act. it is just a lie. the only way he would ever go to

medicaid for all is if they replaced the affordable care act, which would be broader universal coverage. mark: they were behind in new hampshire and had a decent lead in iowa. get both races behind them, they are clearly threatened. the easiest way hillary clinton is wine a good 2016 iowa, new hampshire, or both. if she loses them, it will be very hard. intuition.is what was happening at clinton headquarters in 2008, bill clinton said take barack obama seriously. hillary clinton said no. he felt vindicated when obama won iowa. that conversation is happening again. do not relive 2008. we have to hit sanders hard. mark: might have waited too

long. chelsea clinton is coming to hillary clinton's rescue. one person who is not coming to her rescue, joe biden. if anything, vice president biden sounded like a bernie t --rs circuit in surrogate in two interviews this morning. he praised the democratic underdog for his position on guns and income inequality and hit hillary clinton where she is most vulnerable -- on the question of a true commitment to liberal causes. >> does bernie sanders have to change his position on gun manufacturers to have your support? >> no. what bernie sanders has to do is say the second amendment, which he has, the second amendment limits who can own guns. is speaking to a

yearning that is deep and real. he has credibility on it. that is the enormous concentration of wealth with a small group of people. it is relatively new for hillary to talk about that. quote bill clinton, if you see a turtle on a fence post, it cannot get there by itself. john: there are two things going on here. rand ofsanders' b economics joe biden believes in. mark: and does not believe hillary clinton has the same brand? believes hillary clinton is more of a centrist on economics. he applauds what sanders is doing on substance. and he is sick to death of the clintons. that is why he considered running against her in the fall.

pissed off at them. he is speaking his mind. mark: the other thing is he wants to be part of this discussion. i saw on twitter that somebody and jerry al gore brown will form a listserv. that was me, by the way. hillary clinton is still the front runner, but there are oner democrats -- what if the night of the primary, sanders and trump have won both? john: into more last night, a couple sanders people were giddy with what joe biden said. i said, this is great, but do not be too giddy.

joe biden keeps saying that he regrets not running, but there is some part that might be storing a little mischief. in that interview, she asked him, are you willing out running? he did not rule it out by any means. john: this evening, president obama will deliver his seventh and final state of the union address. this will be one of the last major speeches of obama's presidency and highlight what he accomplished in office and layout priorities and unfinished business for his last year. will attempt to cut through the "day-to-day noise" of washington. the white house says this is true with every state of the union. they are trying to say, take a look over here. mark: they have succeeded on a

couple levels. -- payingis manning more attention to it than i thought. they are using social media. , i think he failed has reached his base. tonight will not give him much of an opportunity to persuade people who do not approve of the job he is doing. john: everything you need to know about this speech is that eve childs will be in the audience. this is poetry more than prose. he wants to say i have traveled full circle. the themes that inspired me to run. mark: next, we will take a look at the republican presidential race. it got a little nastier in the last few days. we will show you the latest gop attacks and analyze them. ♪

mark: another republican pull to talk about with a dozen candidates making the final sprint. , donald trump and ted cruz are in a statistical tie for first place with 31% and 29%. everyone else in the field is below 5%. nationally, there is a new survey that has donald trump extending his lead at 30%, trailed by ted cruz at 20%. rubio at 11%, ben carson at 9%. tomorrow morning, we will look at that. based on these latest numbers,

who should be worried? john: you have to be a little worried if you are ted cruz. maybe you are not running away with iowa. jeb bush has to be disconsolate. chris christie, the sense that he had upward movement is gone. john kasich has to be happiest right now. i will tell you about how iowa is shaping up. inhink trump has a strong there. finishes second with trump the only one near him, they may turn to cruise -- cruz. john: there are too many people in the party that hate donald trump and ted cruz.

it would not be devastating for cruz to come in second in iowa. he would rather win the state. all i am saying is second is perfectly good. john: especially if there is a big gap between him and marco rubio. mark: i do not think anyone thinks carson will jump up. but can rubio be a clear third? time we have reached that in our program when we talk about the gop firing squad. here are some of the latest developments. ater donald trump quoted harvard law professor on the issue of ted cruz's canadian saying,ruz jeff back why are hillary's strongest supporters backing donald trump? is opening abio new line of attacks on ted cruz

over his tax plan and saying he issues in aopper on web video released today. >> marco rubio said he opposed amnesty. then he co-authored the path to sedition chip -- citizenship bill. , just another washington politician you cannot trust. >> ♪ made forts were flipping ♪ ♪ joe pounder, advisor to marco rubio responded saying, after spending $75 million with nothing to show for it, jeb bush's campaign exists for the

sole purpose of tearing down conservatives like marco rubio. what is your take away? who has the upper hand? --k: if i weren't rubio, were rubio, i would be concerned. everyone wants to say he is a flip-flopper. he has got to be worried. all these other attacks, on the tax plan, it will be difficult for anyone to break through. that is in part why we are talking about this stuff. the danger for somebody like rubio, where all his opponents will attack them for the same thing. john: joe pounder is a part of this. but right to rise, which has more money than any single entity out there on the

republican side, they have said, the money for jeb bush is not working. now, jeff murphy, master of the dark arts, is saying, i will take marco rubio down. that is not a great place to be. mark: rubio remains the strongest of the candidates. these other three are all eyeing each other. kasich may be able to draft a little on this anti-rubio stuff. mark: when we come back, we will preview the state of the union. ♪

joining us from washington to preview the state of the union address and a whole lot

hunt and margaret talib. dean.u are the we have heard how this state of the union will be different. will it matter at all? >> not a great deal, john. that last state of the union given by any president does not matter a whole lot. minimal effect on the election. they are trying to frame whether it is reagan or bush. this will be an upbeat speech. the great conundrum that he faces tonight is on the one hand, the record is impressive. unemployment down 10% to 5%. budget deficit is down. hand, people feel

the country is heading in the wrong direction. his popularity is low. people agree the economic recovery has been on even. it is a contradiction he faces tonight. , foreign policy and natural security will be unpredictable terrain. on domestic policy, what is the best case for the white house for what the president can get done this year? >> there are a handful of things they want to get into going forward. on the domestic front, they include areas involving poverty and a meeting of the minds with republicans on poverty. you heard paul ryan signaling that over the weekend. a little bit on criminal justice reform. republicans wanting to reach out to minority americans who have had the odds stacked against them in the criminal justice system.

but a fairly limited amount that they can accomplish legislatively. wants congress to ratify the tpp and will presumably ask for that again. he has been asking for that since the beginning. he does not want to put all of his eggs into what can get done this year basket. he wants to talk about what he cannot come pushing the years beyond his presidency as well. john: margaret, you have covered barack obama since he ran for president and covered him closely for seven years. you know how he thinks about big speeches. the state of the union has never been one of his absolute favorite. how is he thinking about tonight differently from past states of the union? >> in previous states of the union, he was trying to point

out areas where he could realistically think he could get congress to act or make a positive case to take it to the public to run his own executive order campaign. at this point, in year eight, we can guess he knows what he wants to do by executive order. he knows a couple things he can do through legislation. he is really shooting for the fences at this point, swinging for the fences -- i will not say shooting. he is really thinking about how he can shape his legacy, talk to americans about how he wants them thinking. we will see a little 2016 politics. i expected to be understated. to want toct him cast his optimism in contrast to donald trump's pessimism. this speech, i do not expect it to be about here is what i want to get done this year and more

about here is what i want the country to become. >> can i just jump in here? let's turn the clock back a year ago. 2015. a pretty good if he gets criminal justice reform and the biggest trade pact in 40 years, that is a heck of a achievement for a president. i am not sure he would get that, but that would really be a package. mark: less than a minute, but i am desperate to hear your reaction to the comments from joe biden and chelsea clinton today regarding bernie sanders. >> they are nervous, mark, real nervous. they think that bernie could win iowa and new hampshire. it will give them fits for months to come. joe is having fun stirring the pot.

[laughter] al, margaret, thank you. when we come back, we talked to bob shrum and fred davis. d.c., are watching us in you can listen to us on bloomberg 99.1. ♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,

and that's what we're doing at xfinity. we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20. it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. ♪ mark: back in beautiful downtown pasadena, joining us are bob

davis, who is working for the super pac supporting john kasich. john: one has a superior hair. >> one has almost no hair. two political strategists who live in california but spend time all over the country. bob, you watched the clintons for a long time. what is your reaction to this huge development in the race and chelsea clinton hitting bernie sanders on health care? >> i wonder if it is intentional. i think it is a real mistake to use her as an attack dog. it is not a role that fits her. she is much better testifying for her mother. i do not know that these charges are going to hold up very well overtime. bernie sanders has been saying,

abolish medicare, abolish obamacare. he has been saying use the model and create health care for all. it is kind of a distortion. mark: smart people working hillary clinton. very smart people. we all agree with what bob said. how in a campaign does something like that happen? did simply say, you know what? let's try chelsea out? >> it is almost a scripted attack. mark: how did that happen? >> one of the great questions. strange things happen in campaigns. that is one of the worst. mark: this situation? >> makes zero sense. john: here is the next logical question. the attack dog you would expect would be bill clinton. now chelsea is doing it. what happens to bill clinton? if you are running the clinton campaign, how would you deploy

bill clinton to stop bernie sanders? >> first of all, you should be raising money. doing stuff with party leaders, dealing with the dnc. i think she needs to run as hillary clinton, not the clintons. it does not help her to run as the clintons. it begins to draw all this return fire until tell a new generation that is unacquainted with it about some of the stuff from the 1990's, which i thought we put behind us. >> behind the scenes. >> behind the scenes or with a heavy party audience. raising money, doing that kind of thing. , ifhe wins the nomination she wins the nomination, the person she needs to be heard bill clinton is barack obama. he needs to do for her in 2016 what bill clinton did for him in 2012. mark: haley barbour says nothing

in politics is as good or bad as it seems. the sanders campaign is doing well. do you see any errors? >> i never thought they would get this far. they have done a good job. mark: bob? anything on how they are handling themselves? >> he is drawing huge crowds. at the same time, he is doing all this personal campaigning. crowdsment would be, big , but iowa and new hampshire, you have to meet people. to have a lot of field organization on the ground. a lot of it is volunteers. partner, tad devine, is a strategy leader for public -- bernie sanders. john: the clinton campaign has felt that new hampshire and iowa are all-white states, different

from the rest of the country. she has strength with african-american and hispanic voters. if bernie sanders were to win them both, would african-american and latino voters look at him anew? >> not instantly, but there are two dynamic that would come into play aside from the huge residential. nevada would become important. some indication the race may be getting closer. , you wouldnevada have a recalibration. --ch you win south carolina would she win south carolina? yes. will he survive that? sure. it will depend on minnesota, colorado, massachusetts. 1984 you showed in

could lose a bunch of primaries in the middle and make it to the end. if he had not made the joke about new jersey -- sanders wins iowa and new hampshire, fundraising will explode more than it has. >> people will beginning him another look. mark: we will talk more about the republicans, but a baseline question -- you are working to help governor kasich. it is a foregone conclusion to trump areruz and going to be finalists? >> i think so. mark: the question is, will there be one or two others that join him? >> i think so. barring some horrible error. >> what error could trump make?

mark: what is the biggest vulnerability? one sentence for each. the biggest they have now. i think it is the same for both, the strangeness factor. the fact that they are as bizarre as they come. i know you're chuckling, but at some point it has to sink in. mark: voters will say, that person does not feel right? >> they do not have presidential demeanor. >> a little strange. john: you are a man who knows strange. mark: bob and fred will stay with us. we will ask them to play a time-honored game called in gauging in hypotheticals. ♪

♪ ini am not going to engage hypotheticals. >> we do not want to engage in hypotheticals. those five people will not engage in hypotheticals, but we will. ball up and fred join us for our inorite game, "engage hypotheticals." put on your smart guy hats. we will run through some scenarios. you will help us figure out these things. bob, you are advising ted cruz. trump decides to unleash the hounds. goes negative on you with advertising in iowa.

>> you have to go back at him. the one thing we learned about youp is that, if he goes at , like jeb bush, it is not going to work. the real question is, does going back at him work? there seems to be no attack that can be leveled that hurts him. one of the reasons i think he attacked bill clinton, and this guy is smart, is he was trying to preempt the attack she is worried at coming at him that he donated money to the clinton foundation. cruz we have seen ted adopt the opposite posture -- never attack donald trump. be, if trumpvice goes big on the air and starts pummeling his canadian say, takep, would you

the gloves off? >> i would start with, nothing has worked. nothing has stuck to that guy. figure out how to keep the upper ground. attack, is a canadian would not respond. , then yourious attack think, what am i going to do? ted cruz is really for amnesty. pick up the rubio argument. he has at least got to defend himself. is there a higher imperative to respond to paid media? >> he may have to. even then, i would try to keep higher ground. he has done it well so far. mark: say you are hillary clinton advisers. however it plays out, let's say sanders wins iowa and new hampshire's.

the results come in and you have lost two in a row. what do you do? >> you have to be gracious about him, play to your strengths. you have to get south carolina, get the latino and union vote in vegas and reno. firewallto bank on the and hope it does not collapse. mark: what is the message if she lost? bob said be gracious. >> we will do some things wrong -- come back and make some changes. >> the problem is the lack of enthusiasm. what has been happening is democrats have accepted hillary. they are not ready to embrace her. john: this is the most fun

scenario, the third and final. donald trump, republican nominee. who is his running mate? >> my guess is ted cruz is angling for the spot. john: who would you advise? mark: you have won the new hampshire primary. fred, who should i consider? >> somebody who knows what they are doing. somebody who can bring ohio. john kasich. ch is a goodasi choice. rob portman. mark: you guys are going for balance the ticket. are you sure your advice would not be another military personnel, another businessman? >> i am so sure that the outsider appeal that may have for theant weight

republican nomination is not enough to win the election. , the onethe nominee thing he has to do is reassure -- mark: what about rubio? kasich,oing to say, rubio. john: put nikki haley on the ticket. how about that? you have problems with women? minorities? >> carly fiorina. >> nikki haley would be a better candidate in that context. first of all, because she is a woman, a governor, successful governor, and a minority. i think that if trump were to not,any chance, which i do the big thing to do is figure out the electoral math. he has to look at ohio.

there are a lot of states in play normally that would not be in play. >> the average voter would be comfortable. john --summary like somebody like john kasich is the firsttrump wins two, will the balance of the party accept him? >> i don't hit -- i doubt it. >> they will resist. when he begins to a mass the delegates he needs, goes through super tuesday, i think most of them will make their peace with it, even though they fear it could be a defeat. disappointedghly you did not bring up one of your former clients. [laughter]

that is my republican ticket -palin.p john: next, we have nicole ellis, jon meacham, and historical perspective. ♪

♪ two folks whous, know a lot about the presidency. nicolle wallace and jon meacham, whose book, "destiny and power"

can be found at finer bookstores. ideal arbor day gift or any other holiday. thank you for joining us. the state of the union, you have seemed likehere it the biggest night of the year. does it seem like a big night? >> i was thinking about this. tonight is the first of 12 months of last for the president. crisiss a international with the 10 navy sailors taken by the iranians for allegedly being in their waters. in the white house, they are dealing with a crisis. they are also talking about how this is the last time they have to staff a state of the union address. it does become a little melancholy/bittersweet when the president starts doing something for the last time that they had done for eight years.

john: when you think about president obama's states of the union, are any of his state of the union memorable? can this one qualify as standing out because of historical flo urish? wellhis is almost a pre-fare address. the news cycle is so fast, you have a farewell address a year out. that they are memorable for what other people have said. remember the congressman from north carolina who cried out, "you lie"? it was a startling moment because it violated decorum of the house. a lot of these speeches have been montages. obamaear, we joked about

approvingly quoting himself from 2004. as i said, there is one america. one of the things that is thates me about this reagan's approval rating was 55%. bill clinton's was 60%. george w., 37%. 38%. is right at 37%, we are a vigilant -- ambivalent to the end. when has the last state of the union address mattered in our politics? i think he gave a powerful state of the union after newtown, but i cannot remember another one anyone talked about. >> i think it was clinton's era

of big government being over. that is almost 20 years ago. >> the speech is almost as outdated as -- a weekly magazine. eventea that an annual r's any impact on the 24-hou cycle, it does not seem to have any currency. i want to ask you about whether the purported plans the white house has to take a victory lap about the deal that was struck over the iranian nuclear program make sense in light of the 10 -- >> no. the sophisticated foreign policy answer. >> will they take it out of the speech? >> he will make a case with that look he has occasionally about how important it is to rise to

his level, his disappointment we are not commensurate with him. he will talk about the importance of bringing in the international community but remaining ever vigilant. mark: to ruminate on something about the bushes -- within 45 days of the greatest political comeback of bush political history, or one of the biggest disappointments they will see. what is going on at kennebunkport and dallas as they think about the next 45 days? >> i think they are strategists at heart. aroundre they are flying . that, atare a family the end of the day, truly feels each other's defeats forever.

sonsing time with 43, the still feel their fathers lost to bill clinton in a way he does not feel any more. this is a family with empathy coursing through their veins that makes political setbacks for any one of the other more painful for the rest of the family. >> they are as puzzled as the rest of us, to some extent, about what forces have led to the durability of the trump phenomenon. once said that history does not repeat itself, but it rhymes. houston, they in are thinking about outside forces have come along. rosident bush, 41, believes ss perot cost him the

presidency. but they have billionaires before that complicated their political lives. mark: jon meacham, nicolle wallace, thank you for joining us. the book is "destiny and power." you should buy it. we will be back with a little about iowa and florida after this. ♪

john:john: tomorrow at 6:00 a.m., check out bloombergpolitic all-new i will. mark: sayonara. ♪

♪ emily: i am emily chang, and you are watching "bloomberg west." turkeys is a member of islamic state was responsible for a

suicide bombing in a tourist district. 10 were killed, eight of them german. the state has seen an insurgency by kurdish militants. in the u.s., president obama delivers his final state of the union tonight. is expected -- he is excited to lay out a broad vision for america's future. you can watch the speech right here on bloomberg. the house has secured enough votes to go ahead with sanctions on companies that do business with north korea to punish the country for its latest nuclear test. california said notable to volkswagen's plan to recall engines from 2009 to 2015. an nfl committee