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tv   On the Move  Bloomberg  February 18, 2016 2:30am-4:01am EST

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manus: good morning. 7:30 in london. i am guy johnson. oil is continuing to rise. that is definitely the story of the last 48 hours. as the narrative really changed that much? correlations between oil and equities are breaking down. we will talk about that a little bit later on the program. the fed is very much in focus, the minutes from last night reflect the narrative we have had out over the last few days. even from yellen, to be honest. it will be interesting to see where the dot plots go next and what happens with the dollar.
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the brexit story is front and center in brussels today. the summit is an brussels to decide what david cameron can bring home to the british people and what they will ultimately vote on will be in brussels. let's update you on what else you need to know. here is caroline hyde with your bloomberg first world news. caroline: david cameron goes to brussels today, seeking to end months of negotiations. he will end a, four month referendum campaign, intending to secure th the u.k's place. minutes from the fomc's january meeting show they were worried about a series of disruptions that are likely to derail the projection of four rate increases this year. japan's latest trade data shows continued weakness in an economy
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that contracted in the last quarter. exports sank 13%, the most since 2009. at least 28 people have been killed in an explosion in the turkish capital. the attack targeted a convoy of military vehicles. the president condemned the moral andbeyond all human boundaries. he said turkey will find those responsible and step up the fight against terrorism. global news 44 hours a day, journalists in 150 news bureaus around the world. guy? guy: we are 30 minutes away from the european equity market open. at this stagenk regarding the fair value of the terminal? 3/10 of 1% higher seems to be the call at the moment. hill inallying on the
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the united states. oil is still higher. let me show you the other assets you need to pay attention to this morning. you are watching what is happening in turkey quite carefully. the dollar and turkish lira is up to tenths of 1%. brent declined. we have weak export data out of japan overnight. hat will be an interesting 4 story for the boj. the nikkei is up over 2% as we have seen that story evolve. what happened in the states overnight? plus, that strong equity market rally. should you sell in equities for this rally? to bob.t points to a very negative story for equities. we have seen some of it come
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through. would you sell this rally? bob: yes, maybe not this week. but i think in the next couple weeks, yes. we were very oversold in risk assets. we want to believe central bankers are ahead of the curve again. they are clearly not. this is the fed's seventh year into emergency policy and it is not working. likewise for the bank of japan. the key thing is very high expectations that the ecb deliver something next month. mid-march, it is time to go again. manusguy: you still like your sp target? bob: yes, i think we are going to trade in the 1500s, before the end of p2. guy: is this just a lack in faith in central banks? bob: growth is in working.
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rkingy framework isn't wo in terms of currency devaluation. last year, the euro was very weak versus the yen. japanese experts have not done so well in the last year. it is the same game we are playing. fed, i thing is the suspect they are going to go once more. i think they have backed themselves into such a corner that they are probably going to go once more. ultimately, the jobs data, the earnings data, i think it is going to basically take a slower. down by moreis than 10% here. bob: i am independent. guy: how aggressive is the boj going to be? bob: i don't think there is a plan b.
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i think they have to keep going. you probably already have had guests on and other people talking to you about -- guy: they were pretty close. close, one level we are but there is a big leap forward that needs to be made. that is some years away and everyone hopes it does not come to that. but the key thing here is globally, we have a demographic profile which is not very good in most developed economies. that includes china. populations are declining in the working era. in the toilet. if those two things are consistently the theme, i don't know how japan pays you back. i think they have to keep going and i think the yen is the key. guy: are you comfortable with the u.s. paying you back? bob: the problem with the u.s. is the could be offense is right
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now. the dollar is the world's currency. if you go around the world, not many people outside of their basic trade in the world economy need to own euro's or yen. the entire world is always sure of dollars. it is different for the u.s.. guy: where would you be pushing treasuries towards? bob: my targets at the beginning of the year were pretty much hit. $2.50 in the third year. i would not be surprised to see all-time lows in 10 year yields and 30 year yields in the next quarters. people talk about bond yields. is yielding 30 basis points, people say it can't go any lower. there is a very big, real return
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there. stay with us. plenty more from bob. world's one of the largest staffing companies. we will speak with the ceo about his outlook for 2016. we are going to talk about wage growth, that is next. ♪
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guy: let's talk the u.s. wage growth remains a major concern for the fomc. let's get a view of one of the world's largest staffing companies. we are joined now on the phone. good morning to you.
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congratulations on the numbers. do you see any evidence in your which growth is starting to become a reality? >> in the u.s., we see a 2% or 3% increase in wages. that is a signal of a good in economy, of labor markets. you can see it in the unemployment numbers. they are going down. we definitely see some evidence of that. guy: how hard is it to get the right people into the right jobs right now? you would have thought that we are starting to get a tight labor market? is that actually the reality? to the headline numbers speak the truth? that,, we are seeing which of course helps us. one of our fastest-growing businesses in the u.s. is our in-house business where we created a dedicated workforce for predominantly blue-collar clients. it is definitely tougher than it
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was a year ago in the u.s. guy: how does the u.s. compare with europe? >> the u.s. is now in its third year of growth. the cycle is much more prolonged than it is in europe, where it is far more early days. the biggest region behind our increased growth in q4 is europe. it is gaining to 10% growth. so that is in q3, quite an upwards surge. spain and italy have been doing well throughout the year and we also see germany moving into growth in q4. guy: how does that affect the way you are going to invest in business? >> it is not so much influence strategy.' what we see in the early phases of the cycle, but we have been investing in headcounts in our american business.
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we will certainly be investing in our european business going forward if this trend persists. guy: are you worried about britain leaving the eu? >> i personally think britain should be worried about leaving the eu. we have an ok business in great britain. it is a midsized business for us, not the most profitable one. i don't think it would help the development of that business because of course, we rely on the economy. it is always a judgment call, but it would not be great for the british economy. guy: the migration story. net positive or net negative? >> first of all, it needs to be handled a bit more decisively. on the one hand, there is still high and employment in europe. on the other hand, there is scarcity. if you look at the fugitive
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wave, people who can work, you should judge their employability. that is not happening yet. so, you s hould keep the people in. the rest is a more political decision. guy: thank you for your answers. it is interesting to see your numbers going through and fascinating to hear you talk about the business in the states. jacques, the ceo of the huge staffing company randstad. we are talking about 2%-3% growth in the states. that is what the fed wants to hear, but it is worried about inflation. >> you can't get a sustainable cycle of cpi inflation without sustainable wage inflation. you can to pockets of wage inflation, but we have got a very large portion of the economy. aggregate wage growth in real
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terms. aggregate wages today are lower than they were 10-30 years ago. something is not working. if it was that good, policy makers would not be talking about negative rates and more qe. the issue in the u.s. is quite important. productivity is really poor. when you have productivity doing what it is doing, what gives corporatare corporate revenues. corporate profitability, i think it is going -- i think we're going to see an earnings recession in the u.s.. bute is a demand issue, normally when they have this type of response, they increase prices. corporates, is to fire i think in the next couple quarters we are going to see that payroll data, which has
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already started to drift a bit weaker, continue on a weaker trend. that will be a real dilemma. that is when the fed will finally give up on hiking or trying to convince us that there will be two or three more hikes. guy: are they done? >> i suspect that we might get one more, maybe not in march. i have a really bad feeling and this is something kevin talk to me about it a while ago. in june, it looks set up for the fed to hike, just as the payroll data is drifting lower. at one level, i think the dollar is the least worst. on another level, as we have seen, we can see weakness in the dollar. i think the reality is that other central banks will be -- guy: the market has already priced out the fed. it gives you a probability of when we are going to see a rate hike. there is a 0% chance of the way
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across the board. >> but if we get another hundred points with s&p, we mike price hike.rice in another the dollar initially weakened because we priced out the fed. the ecb and the bank of japan and the pboc do not want to see their account strengthened against the dollar. their attempt will be to weaken against the dollar. there is always a bit of a lag here. we are trading who is ahead in that race. you, bob janjuah. up next, we are going to look at the potential corporate movers. nestle reported earnings earlier this morning. not a good set of numbers, some would argue. ♪
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8:51 in1 in london and
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paris. let's talk about some of these stocks we need to be paying attention to. here is caroline hyde. caroline: let's start talking about nestle. this company has been treating it sales growth. this is a chart of its stock prices. it has been a volatile 12 months for nestle. you know kitkat, you know it, you eat it. it had 4.2% growth, trailing their target of 5.4%. it did just me analyst's estimates. this is a company with a presence in asia and africa. they are doing well in the u.s., up 5.5%. they are being hurt by weak demand in asia. are overall still saying
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they are going to be hurt by ever softer prices. it is worth remembering, nestle is your biggest european company by market value. it has got the biggest number rating on the stock 600. this is a company we have to see as important. have a look at air france. it is going to be arriving today. the share price could actually move up from 7.48%. we are expecting air france's numbers. we see the biggest carrier with its first annual operating profit since 2010. the oil price actually has a benefit for these companies. low oil prices might not be around forever and therefore, they are still trying to restructure this business and drive down costs. they warned us about this deal with pilots. it is still very crucial for their productivity and overall to reduce their cost basis. price is very
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beneficial for the airlines. down byseen the stock 50% over the course of 12 months. 10%. down by some why? a turret issue. there could be an issue with its jubilee. back to you. thank you very much indeed, caroline. bob, the correlations are beginning to break down a little bit between oil and risk assets. bob: again, oil was very oversold, but there is a real hope or desperation to believe that the saudi's, russians, and iranians will do the right thing. i don't believe that for one minute. i think each of these three owntries ahave their
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agendas and central to their own agendas is to keep pumping. that will not change anytime soon. guy: a friend of high yields in that scenario, then? bob: the u.s. high-yield market is very energy centric and therefore, is a problem. the one thing that people are not really focused on is the fact that it is not just energy. there are general problems, but also in particular there was an awful lot of financing put in place for housing, roads, and restaurants. that is going to be hard to repay. so, i think there is a broader high-yield. guy: bob stays with us. up next, we are going to talk to the deutsche bank ceo. what is the volatility doing to
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his business? plus, the european open. it looks like stocks are going to open on the front. ♪
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moments awayust now from the start of european trading. equities trading higher in asia. we have stocks extending their winning streak yesterday. fears, the minute show the officials already signaling why they might scale back on their rate hike projections. brexit the battle, david cameron heads to brussels. ok, let's talk about where we
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are going. a decent rally x today -- yesterday, looks at that could be extended. you get the fair value, looks like we'll have a problem. on the caroline hyde now. already on oure longest winning streak for global stock since november. we were up yesterday in europe, we will indeed see that risk appetite flow in from asia. we have traded a coming from the likes of japan and concerns about china. creeping a little bit higher, but ppi the overall product being the second with overcapacity. that is what we're hearing from the bureau chief in china. for a 47th a month. is it really a positive? or is it offering cheaper loads
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once again. that will be fueling investor appetite. cac opening a little bit higher. we see air france push higher as they post a profit for the first time since 2010. some of the pharmaceutical is really going lower this morning. we saw a little bit of a pullback in terms of their probability because oil in the gas prices. let's have a little look at what is going on in the euro. let's look at some of those risk indicators we have been keeping our eye on. oil is pushing the market higher. the reason, you ron is imminent -- iran is seemingly backing this halt in production that we will be freezing productions is up at record high levels, how much of a hit with that be to the oil market? goldman sachs thinks not a much. we are seeing monday moving out of what is usually deemed a haven and into bonds across the
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board. i wanted to focus we saw japan so far at a negative right for the first time that is happened. money going into greece as well. across the board, a lot of buying in the debt market. let's have a look at what is happening in equity markets. i want to look at a convertible bond they are selling. they will sell 2.9 billion .ounds to vodafone they could buy back some of those shares when the convert in 18 months. you see the market is still a little worried. nestle down by 3.3 percent. if the slowest smallest annual ines growth gain for nestle six years. the posted 4.2% sales growth but that is not living up to their own targets. the long-term target is 5% or 6%. they haven't achieved that in four out of the eight years that
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the ceo has been at the helm. air france, look at that up for the first time since 2010. they still needed to deal with that pilot. guy: a quick and dig around these markets to see what is going on, this is the map on the stoxx 600, tech stocks have done pretty well. areth care is down, you seeing that kind of rotation out of safety into the more riskier assets in terms of the equity focus morning. energy is down, just a word of caution, shell has gone negative today. that is affecting what is happening in the energy sector. shell is down on dividend, be aware of that. energy off, but shell is a big part of that story. another thing to update you on, indonesia has just cut rates to 7% from 7.2%. let's find that what happened overnight. rough day across
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the asia-pacific with the regional benchmark advancing on the back of that strong rally in u.s. shares. investors believe last week's sharp selloff has been overdone. we're seeing more risk-taking. risk assets have generally been taken off the table. that led to a rally in the nikkei today. watch closely mitsubishi and .ujitsu softbank seeing a selloff as did the tire maker bridgestone. across the region we watched the pi numbers. and p factory gates inflation moderated. that signals demand is beginning to stabilize. an initial lift to stocks help for the recent stimulus him and the comments by the people's bank of china governor. not enough to get the shanghai composite in positive territory to finish the day. it was fractionally lower.
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australia, miners led the event. despite a weaker consumer confidence, we did see the top 50 index in wellington posting in advance of about .4%. zeb joining us out of hong kong with what happened overnight. volatility continues to be a big story. the net revenue increased by 60% reaching the highest level since the financial crisis. what is the outlook of the year given the volatility we are seeing? now on thens us phone from frankfurt, good morning. put me through what the volatility has done to your business. good morning, i'm happy to be with you today. we have seen volatility that is a little more accentuated than normal because a number of events combining and coinciding.
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you have had a turn in u.s. interest rates and you have had china growth rebalancing. if commodity prices under pressure. it is quite a lot. volatility has helping us a bit here. guy: can you give us an idea of how much? in kind of meaningful terms how can you qualify it? en: in general, we're much happier if volatility is spread out over a longer. -- longer periods of time. it happening in a compressed time period is not ideal. you have some high-volume and futures of various products types. then there is a halt and activities trophy thereafter. people are trying to reorient. bitvents are a little dissipated, it is more helpful.
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i would not overestimate that volatility. you are a guy who knows how banks work. are you worried about the way banks are working right now in europe? carsten: i think the banks have job in tremendous reforming on the regulatory intervention. taking the liquidity, the funding ratios, and i think the around place action of banks is basically a reassessment of the business .odel and future profitability it is a function of all of those changes. it is nothing to do in my of the with any stability around the banks. i think the banks are in pretty good shape. guy: do you think it is an opportunity for your business
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what we're seeing? some fairly aggressive shifts are underway in the operating model particularly at the i banks? carsten: we've always been a function of central and market infrastructure and assisting banks in executing their transactions and trade. we have always been helpful as a provider and assistant to the banking industry who intermediates most of the flow in particular in europe but also elsewhere. i think that stretches further now because we can help them in other areas. reporting, and a certain operational aspects, there is a symbiotic relationship. we are looking forward to participating more and. i think the banks have been and have been reaching out to us for
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assistance. guy: do you think they will have to raise more money? think the capital of the banks has been augmented in the past through raising money. now we are, in general, and a phase where their augmented capital by profit accumulation. that is the way that the most of banks are going about this. andainly, the cost pressure the environment being not as conducive to generating big profits is making that process of profit accumulation and therefore capital accumulation a little slower. then what would be -- than what
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we would like to see. but i think what everyone would like to see. this is the way they will do it. inhink of raising capital something thatt i expect to see a lot of. guy: would your business benefited britain left the eu? do you think the city of london should be treated differently? carsten: well, i personally, brexite saddened to see referendum go that way. bad forinly would be the european union. it will turnthat out correctly. from my perspective, i think there is -- in the theoretical
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case there might be brexit. we don't know, and no one knows what the outcome is. therefore, i hate to speculate. guy: they're enough. congratulations on the numbers. carsten joining us from deutsche boerse where he is the ceo. carsten: one thing i would add to my tent to agree to systemic risk are not the same as they were the banking sector as they were in 2008. in the u.s. to put wheel hard capital nearly a trillion dollars into the banks. in europe, we didn't really do that. there was some backdoor recapitalization, but the banks is still the capital.
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the of the print i agree with is a profitability for banks is going to be structurally lower. regulators want the industry as a 5% or 10% industry, on that basis raising capital will be tough. pay away a lotto of value. i think the ability to accumulate internal capital will be tough. i think it will be needed. there was an enormous expectation amongst the credit markets that mr. draghi steps up next month to support the buying program of the ability of banks to fund themselves. debt, there is some believe that he will buy senior debt from banks for that some believe that it is to buy subordinated debt as a way of shoring up the banks capital base. guy: that is interesting. bob: if that doesn't happen there could be some disappointment. guy: it is interesting that he
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is their regulator as well. we'll talk about that in a minute. thatxt, the report said the u.k. could lose 10 billion pounds a year if it loses -- leaves the eu. ♪
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economicsly capital down by 3/10 of 1%.
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u.k. exports could shrink by nearly as 10 billion pounds. it doesn't actually agree. he sees little change. bob: i think it is really hard to see any credibility in an or to leavestay constructed around economic. i think it is a zero sum game. if we stay overly the fundamentals of the economy will be relatively unmoved. guy: he is known for being a smart guy. unmoved, not a lot of change. do you agree? bob: kind of, yeah. the reason why not as i can make a killer argument is because there isn't the killer argument. i think the one thing about the u.k., it would clearly be some disruption. but the u.k. like a bunch of kind ofonomies
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reinvents itself. it adjusts, that is what we do. we have been doing it for several hundred years. i imagine we would adjust. it is worth highlighting that germany's biggest export market i was going to say dumping ground, would be the u.k.. i think it would be a lot of consequences of both sides. i am with you, if it was a knee-jerk reaction to sell sterling i would be looking to buy sterling. i have aafe haven, but lot of confidence in the u.k. that the economy will adjust. quickly than the continental economy? what we do.hat is wages started deflating he really early. at the ground level, wage deflation isn't a good thing but at a macro level that is what you need. companies and you can shut down, they fired people, they got on with it. we saw that partly in the u.s. as well. , germany is had to
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drag the whole of europe along with it kicking and screaming. it is still kind of unfinished work basically. there would be risks and problems, but on any kind of meaningful timeframe i am with neil. are trying to figure which way you go, which way do you go? just one person, but i get a sense in terms of ie outcome that actually think the vote will be much closer to people think. i think the risk of an exit is not small. city, i think there is an inherited believe that we just adjust and get on with it. if the eu want to be vindictive against the city of london, so be it. i think it was the belief in the city that it has been around for so long, i have been working for 20 years and been told every
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year that frankfurt or paris was going to -- it's not going to happen. in any kind of timeframe that matters to me, anyway. i think the city would just say let's get on with it. coming some risk cia. -- here. bob: the biggest risk is a really close vote. the kind of bitterness and anger on either side would persist. a don't care which way the answer is, if it is close it is a problem. i think we need a decisive -- guy: it then becomes an internal political story here in the u.k. there is no way to will be another big referendum like this. this is a once in a generation. bob: this is not about economics. this is about the way that people feel about life. is about refugees and terrorism and immigration. partly it is about democracy, all of these things to which we have no answers.
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ultimately, people will vote with their got. my concern is that why could be i think the people are incentivized to vote are the exit people. we know the polls are generally not worth looking at. the bookies are still favoring an in vote. when i see clients and investors, particularly in the u.k., i just think it is going to be close. people arenk convinced enough by either argument economically. it comes down to what do you think about life? personal, becomes for work with you. bob stage with us, thank you. up next, the s&p is pulling out of sync with other assets. ♪
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falling out of sync a little bit as a declining correlation between u.s. stocks and other assets. caroline hyde is you do explain. caroline: in little bit tighter for comfort. it won't fellow at 15 year highs between oil and the s&p 500. they were talking wti crude
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calling it armageddon. we've deutsche bank saying the oil coronation conundrum. suddenly, we are dipping down. in see basically the move lockstep for movement. it is matched by a movement higher in the other indexes. at the moment we are seeing oils correlation fall from 15 year high back in january 2 now about .8. this is happening not just equities, it is s&p 500 versus european equities. lives in the shanghai composite that level of correlation drop down 2.5. we are starting to see as of in theay the topics fall hang seng the fall but we so europe's street higher -- streak higher. the unwind of hyper correlation is down. how will we cope we are talking about the end of hyper correlated risk. and the fear factor is what
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drives correlation. the fear factor is when something you don't see in individual asset classes anymore. today, gold is going lower. in the japanese yen is going higher. you don't usually see that. guy: do they the world gets tougher from here. bob: i do. it is risk on, risk off. the blood and trying to convince me for 5.5 years that is on the right way to world look at markets. i am happy with it. that overlays the dollar yen. think, thebout, i dollar. that isollar weakens, ok. that is what we are seeing. all -- the date that it broke down i will guess was about the data the bank of japan leaving to negative rates. guy: and the banks become front
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and center. the market is a more shifted from focusing on oil that they too focusing on global banking. what does it mean for the financial sector? bob: the market can deal with a couple of things at any given time. we will leave it to them to focus on the banks. the bank of japan to move i think in the response of markets -- i think that will be the key thing to remember going forward. caroline: we won't say those correlations breakdown once again by central-bank policy. they're always lags and leads. up andct the ecb to come deliver. we expect the fed to pass. ultimately, the key story is what does the fed do with policy. other central banks will try to weaken against the dollar. it is the fed response ability.
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all of the deflation, where do think that goes? ♪
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into the an hour trading session, let's you things are shaping up. bunch of stocks going back's dividend of the london market. be aware of that. is down.s up, the cac we show a few other assets around the world. caroline malik look at what is going on. crude is up another half 1%. dollar yen is lower. the is a bit higher. the nikkei trading higher on the back of that. earlier,or export data what is the bench to.
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with a close to the parliament. additionally which stocks on the way with caroline hyde. we have to get into the actual air france. since 2010, they have been unable to post a profit until now. we see them posting some 6% on the back of the biggest carrier in europe despite the doldrums we have seen its share price in. the first annual operating provinces in 2010 because of oil. i know you will be elaborating more what is going on later. 20% more than 20% for air france. sure thato they make they bring down their overall operating cost? that is down to the labor force. they warn us they need a deal with a pilot in particular to make sure they have the productivity improvement in place before we see a return to higher oil prices. share prices are going out for the meanwhile, nestle not so
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pretty. down from 4%, this is the biggest waiting on the stoxx 600 and europe from a valuation. we are seeing the smallest annual sales gain in six years for nestle. the maker of kit kat, 4.2% increase. not living up to their own expectations. there hurt by asia demand being weaker. plus some product recalls in india. overall, there is a prices will be more difficult going forward. that will hold back sales the same degree in 2016. meanwhile, oil down from 15% earlier. this is a company that really can't catch a break. now, i problem with their vessel , they're floating production storage. this is known as an spf of. it could be issues with the turret.
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many people are worrying about that at the moment. guy: pekka rinne much, just a reminder that dutch shell if you want the production of a bloomberg psk after zeneca all going ex dividend on the market. oil climbing for a second day. let's get more on the oil market. where join up in the london office. oil continuing to climb. is that justified in reality by what we're seeing on the ground between these countries? >> i don't think the balances have changed at all. these countries of come out and said we could do freezeout. they did it very skillfully. they made no commitment. that was to be expected.
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balances have changed at all. if anything come all of these countries have come out and given us make-believe numbers. they are all willing to freeze these. but, i do think once -- one thing is change. a lot of people have been bearish on this market. i think the fact that these guys are even talking has to mean seven. i think it is introducing an element of uncertainty. that is why you are seeing the price reaction that you are. speak, it goes negative on the session. talk to me about that risk. how symmetrical is it, really in terms of the risk we are applying? yet have a price even and they're having secret negotiations. in reality, there doesn't them
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to be any willingness to change the status quo. that is that this market is massively oversupplied. >> i think this is for a much the first step. that is why i think people are getting a bit nervous about being super bearish on oil. .y no means over guaranteed we still stand by the view that saudi arabia will not cut reduction unilaterally. that we will cut production if you're ready to cut production. there is a huge amount of mistrust. let's talk about freezing our output. the work is cut out for a lot of these guys. there is no way we believe that iran will start freezing out. the have to be given some concessions. this will take a months. the oversupply continues. having said that, nigeria, angola, they want increase production. you'll see production decline.
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you might get some of those we have cut production but in reality we will lose production. there's this in any way change if you're thinking of going short crude would this change your mathematics him at? -- on that? , oil is very me oversold. i had a target of sub 30 for the year. it was always going to be some kind of condition. i don't think anyone is serious about cutting. not just the recent phenomenon it is a geopolitical religious thing. don't think it goes away anytime soon. we probably are likely to have everything else a week or two away from the right level. guy: you would become trouble getting short oil?
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: you have to have more conviction in your view. it was an easier trade four months ago. i still think -- my views on global growth global demand and production of oil tells me that oil prices will be lower for longer. back in theo bounce last week, give it a little while. downfor the next move back to some 30. guy: if you look at what has shifted over the last 24 hours, you have the fed making it very clear that it is backing off from hiking four. you had this meeting between these oil producers. if you were to rank those two in order of importance, how would you do it? amrita: i would have the dollar has been a bigger mover than opec. i would probably go with the fed even if that might sound controversial. thing ishe opec
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important. there was a lot of volatility around them. nobody was expecting them to talk. the fact that they did however uncertain is important. massive.upply is opec production is well over one million barrels a day. guy: what does it tell us about what is happening inside russia? amrita: the problem over here is that russian production is under a huge amount of pressure. domestic prices over there are about $30 per barrel. is helping them. incrementally it is getting harder and harder for them to extract any money out of this. which is why they have even opened up and said we're willing to cut. the trick with russia is the most important person is -- remained extremely opposed to cuts. i don't believe anybody in the market actually thinks rusher book cut production. which is why while all the talk is very good i still think a lot
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of work needs to be done. i don't see how the smaller producers will get together and cut production if it comes to that. bit of as a double-edged sword. oil is to rally, the ruvell would rally. one of the things given them vaguely competitive is the ruble. bob: i think he has a lot of thing sorting out this year, not least of which is the u.s. election. i don't think we should expect the russians to lead the way in terms of cutting. guy: dollar is the important one of think you all the grandma. thanks to bob, great stuff. chancellery german standing alone as the crisis continues to mount.
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more the story. ♪
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guy: welcome, you are watching "on the move." beginning to roll over. dr. about the correlations already this morning. still very much in evidence. let's show you what is happening with dollar yen which is one of the things are watching very carefully in this correlation
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story. how the 1340u that is how things are at at the moment. maybe it is this in a moment. there we go. are looking at. european stocks rolling over. dividend today. dollar yen a factor, oil has also rolled over. that is something we will watch very carefully. dollar yen now trending 100 1373 . the bit is probably around the nikkei close higher today. basically starting to roll over. let's get you caught up in anything else needs know if caroline hyde. is the boj'st negative interest policy increasing investor demand.
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the investment banking arm is the second-largest lender by branches. he currently employs 75 people in japan. it in the increase that by another 10. a former deutsche bank analyst will pay a $100,000 penalty and the band from the security industry for a year. says he recommended buying shares a discount retailer big lots and emerged with the report. colleagues internally it not downgrade the company because he wanted to maintain his relationship with its management. apple has rejected a court order to help u.s. investigators unlocking iphone used by one of the shooters in the san bernardino attacks. apple's website ceo tim cook said they were seeking a new version of apple's operating system that will circumvent
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security features and give law enforcement access to private data. he called the order a dangerous precedent and a chilling attack on civil liberties. guy: it is a big day for david cameron. headed to brussels defaces u.k. counterpart -- eu counterparts. ryan is ineporter brussels for us. what is he going to get done. where the sticking point. ben: i think the first might to what extent british banks were left to comply with rules imposed here. browse the biggest of the mullahs migration. the u.k. would like to children ofar the migrant workers from the eu in the u.k.. that is from getting benefit of the are living in the u.k. of us of compromise on that whereby they would he get a reduced
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amount of child benefit if they are not living in u.k.. where talking about 38,000 child benefit and all. it amounts to 25 million pounds according to some math. really small fry in the big picture. but very emotive. that is one of the reasons we heard donald tusk say that while he would like to see a deal done here, there is no guarantee that it will happen by friday. guy: ok, so a lot needs to happen between now and then. when will tickets are to be booked home? cameron shows is, up and meet with tusk who came up with an overnight proposal leaders of the 27 other countries. that will be an interesting
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conversation. and they have dinner, at the dinner they will discuss migration. there, cameron will say we are prepared to help out particularly with stemming the flow of migrants from turkey into greece and providing naval assets. that is part of playing nice and inwing the value of britain the european union. and then look at what you on mike's talks -- night talks. he will hopefully clinch a deal by tomorrow morning. david cameron about noontime can say everything is great then head back to downing street and have a cabinet meeting and announcement referendum that everybody is expecting on june the 23rd. that is if everything goes according to plan. i just got my orientation here my paperwork went to the hands of no less than nine people. you can imagine how complicated it will be given all 28 liters get into the room. guy: that may just be you, ryan
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come up we can talk about that offline. doing a great job out in brussels those of the german chancellor angela merkel is under increasing strain over the refugee crisis. let's get to our international correspondent hans nichols in berlin. -- what isrkel on the direction of travel here? peopleccording to two familiar with merkel, she thinks there is no way you concealed greece off. that puts on a collision course with so many of her other colleagues within the eu. basic conundrum is this could -- -- and the entire german political a seligman you can't accept another million refugees this year. at the same time, they are unwilling to talk about a plan b. is it has to be some eu solution.
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so far, marco has come up short. yesterday, she talked about not downplaying expectations for meetings in brussels for such as opposed to have a trial meeting with the leaders of greece as well as turkey. canceled because the premier from turkey will not become an from brussels because of the attack in there. she made a statement almost mocking her colleagues within the eu with couple of days ago. to said everyone wants protect the outer border but not everyone is telling me how exactly with a bus to do that. there is other evidence she's getting more testing with the criticisms. with ated dinner newspaper editors that happened very critical with her. she served arabic food, some amid a comment -- someone made a comment that the fissures may be caught by a refugee. .he bristled at that joke things are getting tense here. the finance minister down in bavaria is saying you need to
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have a national deportation plan and wants to be part 350,000 refugees this year. guy: you read my mind, what is the spread between merkel right now? how different would policy look? hans: so far, he is given no indication he wants to do that. change youicy to need to have a real movement on the coalition partner. they could potentially give any chance let that would follow merkel a little bit more leeway to change. all of that said, he has been withholding his fire. most of it has been coming from the csu in bavaria. and interiorance minister for the finance minister said the rates they're 2008 a.n today it already had 100,000 this
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year. track for another million person arrival in 2016. guy: thank you very much. up next week talk about the minutes of january's meeting. and how market turmoil concerns could play out. ♪
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at: welcome back, let's look your day ahead.
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we get earnings before the u.s. market open. the ecb publishes the account of the january meeting. later this afternoon, the eu with thetes renegotiation britain's membership will take center stage. that kicks off from 4:00 p.m. u.k. time fx chart is from bloomberg's first work richard jones. the minute and very exciting. i'm talking what the fed minutes on the ecb minutes. i think the fed a minute yesterday were -- there is nothing really new in them. they were consistent with what we heard from the chair the week before" we heard from rosen the night before. between thehift december amendments to the january minutes. we see a bit of a shift. i think i would not be surprised if we saw a material change. guy: i don't think you're alone
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in that. richard: it is funny they have an immediate wake of the december meetings 4 hikes in 16 versus maybe 2. now we are nothing priced in. again lives in the market lead the fed in terms of what the rate profile is going to be. guy: when you look at what is happening and tell the central banks will lean into that talk us through how the blessing markets will evolve from here. overnightexport data pushes them towards the yen weakening. ecb, we know what could happen. the other pair, how do they move? richard: the big change in their narrative is that whenever we's thought central banks were doing 2016 at the end of last year it will be considerably more dovish than that thought process. boj, the ecb,the the fed if you believe the market will not hike this year.
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ank of england come we have portion of cuts priced in by the end of this year. with bill brexit debate. but angle of a defensive and cautious central banks and what we thought we were going to see towards the end of last year. that will ripple through all the asset classes. guy: what about the next 48 hours? richard: independent of we get a deal and a date. in the campaign kicks off in earnest. the weekend press will be full for both sides. i think that kind of uncertainty will probably weigh on the pound. but certainly think it could hit yields. thank you much running is from bloomberg first. stay with bloomberg television. whiskl talk about sentiment. we of european exits just beginning to roll over. rent is also -- brent is also
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trading down. ftse 100 now sub 6000. a fairly grisly looking london skyline. ♪
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guy: the market says the recent rally has gone far enough. fed fears. the latest minutes already signaling how they might scale back on their rate high projections. the brexit battle. david cameron had to brussels in search of an e.u. deal he can put to britain. welcome to "the pulse" live here in london. i'm guy


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