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tv   Trending Business  Bloomberg  June 7, 2016 9:00pm-10:01pm EDT

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♪ wednesday. is it is the eighth of june. withis "trending business" haad salamat. ♪ rishaad: melbourne, tokyo, and singapore. strength to the yen, exporters under pressure. oil stabilizing, trading near a 10 month high. the latest export news out of china in the next hour. signs of stability, but also indications of vulnerability.
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inan-pacific markets are wait and see mode. hillary clinton on the brink of history. formally clinching the democratic nomination. ,ollow me on twitter @rishaadtv hashtag, #trendingbusiness. kuala lumpur, singapore, and taipei all coming online. welcome to the wednesday market party. it's looking more positive than half an hour ago. waiting for malaysia and singapore to update. taiwan up for tens of 1%. 1%,ei 225 up by 4/10 of
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first-quarter gdp number, 1.9%. the yen start to strengthen released, data was which did weigh on export stocks. a bit of a turnaround coming through there now. flat, but aospi solid session tuesday as the won strengthens against the u.s. dollar. also ahead of the trade data out on thea, some weakness london metals exchange. a great host from those energy players in the region. we will expect that in hong kong as well when the market opens. new zealand has been in the red, down by a third of 1% for most of the session. , thanks toonal index
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the lead in japan stocks, the regional index higher, holding on to the six-week highs, driven by gains in oil and gas players. a look at that crude price, still holding above $50 a barrel. of this about supply concerns in nigeria pushing the oil price higher. more of a comeback in the gold price as well. a quick check on the australian dollar ahead of trade data out of china, weaker. april home sales coming through out of australia at the bottom of the hour. rishaad: china set to release major trade data in the hour. we will watch for indications of whether the trade slowdown has moderated or not. what we looking at. >> we have used this term consistently, stabilization. it has been used a lot with the chinese economy.
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inflation numbers should further that argument. lots of economic data due over the next couple of days. we get the trade numbers, followed by inflation tomorrow. this week, foreign direct investment. yesterday, foreign exchange reserves. let's talk about exports first. after the march aberration upwards for exports, they likely resume their downward trend in dollar terms. outbound shipments have fallen year over year in nine out of the past 10 months. the prediction of most economists's for a fall of 4%. upwards,hat aberration 11 point 4%, so stabilization since then. theuse of the yuan violation last august, we have to look at trade figures in yuan terms, which china will release before the dollar terms. terms, exports of moderated, but still expected to
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be in the plus territory for a third month in a row, but it is moderating quite a bit, one point 5% is the consensus estimate. imports, we need to look at that for domestic demand gauge. they have been weaker, falling for 18 straight months in dollar terms, a pickup in oil prices may be lifting the numbers a bit. nalysts had forecast a fall, but you can see it is better than previous months. we need to look at these import terms, whichan shows that the kleins year over if they wereas bad i priced in dollars. a 2% fall predicted in yuan terms. rishaad: we will have a detailed look at the chinese economy. do tweet me at @rishaadtv, include #trendingbusiness.
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hillary clinton has won the new .ersey presidential primary this puts her over the threshold to secure the nomination. whereget to new york, bloomberg politics has the latest. what are the implications here? >> we have known this is coming for several weeks now. everybody thought hillary clinton was going to be the presumptive democratic nominee. tonight is the night where she makes that more official. it won't be final until the convention next month, but tonight she has secured enough .elegates to stand on the stage she is expected to take the stage in brooklyn later tonight and declare herself the presumptive nominee of the democratic party. it is a big deal. this is the first female
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presumptive nominee of a major political party in the united states, and she would deftly point that out on stage. she has set herself that this is a historic moment. she has said she will try to get bernie sanderss supporters on supporters- sanders' on her side. >> they have been gracious to the supporters. she will note the contribution he has made to this campaign. she is likely to have knowledge how much he has done and how far he has taken his campaign, and really give him credit for that. that is step number one. we expect her to reach out to by adoptingorters some of his message, maybe giving him a little bit of a role in the convention, may be campaigning with him on the
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trail. off thisas not backed fight yet. he is still in this race. he still has to figure out what he will do next. there are a lot of moving parts, and the clinton campaign is trying to navigate these waters as sensitively as possible in the next few days. rishaad: donald trump in new york as well, this is some networks projecting a victory for him in south dakota. well, really,en, really criticize for comments made about a federal judge. how does this play out now? >> it has been a rough week for donald trump here. it is because of these comments he made about this u.s. federal judge. we saw a number of people, republicans, republican leaders, be very critical of him this weekend expressed their concern that he wasn't changing his campaign to fit the general
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election and the way that they had hoped, at least not yet. there have been a lot of calls get his act together and get his campaign together and start being a more presidential general election candidate. he has been very defiant. he has said that he has done nothing wrong. he has surrogates all over tv today defending him. he put out a statement that was very defensive today, but i has takene that he the stage tonight to talk about his campaign. they were setting it up. it looked like there were teleprompters, and that is not something he does. it is something more traditional candidates use. maybe we will start to see him get the message and start shifting to more general election demeanor, but so far he has shown a reluctance to do that. rishaad: nice one. great reporting from new york. donald trump talking there. he's trying to get some of these
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democrats on his side and broaden out his appeal. saying that het will work hard to earn the support of democrats and has already shot off a salvo against hillary clinton, saying she has made some tremendous mistakes. the u.s.-china strategic dialogue taking place in beijing. thing seemingly concrete is further internationalization of the chinese currency. a little bit of agreement on the front there. they have agreed to give the currency a foothold in america, but spar over steel and aluminum. china said it would like institutions to raise $40 billion in the u.s. to be invested in china. it will also allow an unidentified american bank to clear transactions outside the
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with the jack lew saying participation in the market opens an important door. at the same time, some hurdles remain. there was mixed progress made when it came to u.s. efforts to get china to cut overcapacity that americans claim is distorting markets. they are disappointed on the lack of consensus on aluminum. are chasing those chinese tourists dollars overseas as the slowdown in china hurts luxury sales hard. million,e fell to $379 which did miss estimates. the world's largest publicly lames a lack of enthusiasm and a decline of tourism. sales grew by 26%. that's for new or markets such as the united states, taiwan, and south korea.
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efforts to grow beyond mainland china, hong kong, macau may bring little benefit for now. it may be tough to get this mainland tourists to buy hong kong jewelry as opposed to an international brand when they are abroad. take a look at toyota, more bumps in the road, the luxury lexus brand has received complaints from owners about malfunctioning onboard navigation systems. the complaints came from the chicago area and across southern states. many asking if toyota was being hacked. beeny said systems have disrupted and have not found the cause. radios.e also affects the company has not decided whether the vehicles or app will need to return to dealerships. rishaad: coming up later,
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seeking $1 billion startup here at why hong kong is in search of its unicorn. next guest is inflation could lead to another cut in the coming months. this is bloomberg. ♪
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, let's get back to what's going on market wise. live from melbourne, great to see you. what do we look at today in particular? we have seen the jobs report, what janet yellen has had to say, the rba yesterday standing pat. are they done in your view? , my view would be no. if you look at where the
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inflation is tracking throughout the second quarter, it is still weak. the most recent report from the tdmi monthly inflation gauge in 1% yeara has dropped to .n year inflation i would think that would be a pretty good case for an inflation targeted focus central banks such as the rba to cut rates again in august. is a good case to see even a second cut again before the year is out, so we are calling for two rate cuts and australia. the key thing is that beneath some of the stronger gdp figures and employment figures, there is a lot of weakness in the economy. first-quarter gdp report was driven by exports, and a huge part of that was associated with the pickup and stimulus in china and increased
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demand for commodities over there. rishaad: i want to put it to you that we have seen central banks cut, cut, cut interest rates, and still no inflation has materialized. why should it be different for australia here? is that the real and just rate, if you have a policy rate significantly higher than where inflation is tracking, that causes real pressure on the economy in that there is less demand for loan demand to invest some of that capital in the economy, so the issue is those real inflation rates as you see the headline inflation rate dropping well below where the policy rates are, that creates its own brakes on the economy, so that is the real concern there. and australia, that is a growing concern as well despite the fact
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that we have not seen a noticeable uptick in inflation. it's the way central banks need to manage their policy rates with regards to an inflation targeting framework. are they comfortable with where the aussie dollar is at the moment? ahead, hopefully we will be getting trade data out of china as well, which normally has a profound impact on where your currency is going. >> that's right. seen asie dollar has massive jump over the past 24 hours in the wake of that statement. i think it may have gotten ahead of itself given that we still expect to more rate cuts from the rba, but certainly we have benefited from the weakness in the u.s. dollar overnight. the chinese data today will be closely followed and australia, and the key data point will be imports growth. whilst we still expected to be an negative year on year territory, the market expectation is for that negative
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percentage growth to have been trimmed from the prior month, and there is increasing signs that there may have been a bit of a step up in demand in china over the past week or two for commodities. we have seen commodity prices bounce back a bit, iron ore prices gaining over the past couple of days. the chinese iron ore imports will be a key component of that chinese trade data report today. it could have a big bearing on where the aussie dollar trades. well, absolutely, and many other people looking at the export side of trade data as well. it should be a snapshot of the global economy as well. >> certainly. is also expected to be in negative year on year territory, and it does not look like there has been a dramatic pickup in global demand to boost chinese exports that substantially, so there's
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probably not a lot of hope in there. ishink the main takeaway that we should see the trade balance expand again in china, and that should help the foreign-exchange reserves somewhat, cushion the blow, if you will. reserve decline for the first time in two months. a lot of that reflecting the u.s. dollar that we have seen as of late. rishaad: let's have a look at new zealand and the central bank there. auckland housing market before it makes a rate decision they are which i believe is on thursday. >> that's right. we have the interest rate decision tomorrow. certainly we are looking towards a rate cut, but it is a close decision. you have these two very different forces driving the bank, low inflation almost on
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deflation, very high interest rates in the country, but at the same time, we have been seeing housing activity pickup and new zealand, house prices gaining steadily throughout the year, and house sales jumping noticeably, so there is some concern that rate cuts could spur that housing bubble that we are seeing across new zealand, but most particularly centered and auckland. inflation-targeting central bank, and there's a good chance of them cutting rates once or twice more this year given the way inflation is looking in the country. rishaad: joining us from melbourne. >> some stories making headlines around the world. the king of thailand has ever gone surgery. the palace confirmed that the king has coronary artery disease and says the procedure was satisfactory. the 88 year old the world's
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longest reigning monarch and was admitted to a hospital a year ago from a lung infection. he is also suffering from fluid on the brain and a knee problem. words overas called fear of bird flu. birds over fear of bird flu. authorities expect 5000 birds to ulled and the market has been closed. sluggish corporate spending and major economy such as the u.s. and japan, global gdp has been forecast to drop this year. powered by over 2400 journalists and 150 bureaus around the world, this is bloomberg news. i am yvonne man. up, chinaell, coming and the u.s. find common ground
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on the currency after two days of talks. we will dig deeper into the yuan 's fortunes. that is next in "trending business". ♪
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rishaad: you are back with "trending business". point 5593 -- 6.5593 against the u.s. dollar, the biggest two-day decline since february. let's have a look at the story in chart form. some relief with that stronger fixing. that thesome concern pboc is going down the road of deflation. the yuan has fallen against that basket of currencies. that is that white line here, the bloomberg replica. against the basket of
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currencies is the lowest since october 2014. all of this on the back of the drop we saw in may of 1.6%, the biggest monthly decline since that august evaluation and certainly stoked some concerns that we are seeing depreciation. part of this is the dollar story. stronger against the u.s. dollar, weaker against the basket, allowing them to control outflows while benefiting exporters. ist we are getting now volatility when it comes to the yuan. take a look at how this is impacting china's reserves, that weaker yuan, stronger dollar effect is playing out. thand a slightly more expected decline in may, falling to the lowest levels since may 2011, and although we have seen stability, we have seen the
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decline in those reserves, coming down 20%. falling from $4 trillion and 24 in 2014. rishaad: "trending business" back after this very short break. ♪
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a look at our top stories. hillary clinton claiming the big prize, beating bernie sanders in new jersey. she will wrap up the democratic nomination. arrival trying to steal some thunder by winning in california. it is a tight race. japan's economy growing slightly more than reported. at 1.9%nding
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annualized, giving some relief after the postponement of the sales tax hike. latest trade data from china due out in the next half hour. u.s. and china agreeing to give the yuan a foothold in america. in beijing talks ending, china saying it would let foreign institutions raise $40 billion in the u.s. to be invested in china and would allow an american bank to clear yuan transactions outside the mainland. right, that key may trade data due out. having a look at the open in hong kong and shanghai. , and a little bit of a negative open in hong kong and china. it is the last trading day of the week for the a-share market. the hang seng opening lower by 2/10 of 1%. we are seeing a bit of a switch
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even though we have seen that oil price above $50 a barrel. onhay pacific doing well that oil price. the shanghai market down on open. korea flat, but the won continues to strengthen against the dollar. it has been a choppy session in japan on the back of that first quarter gdp number, pretty flat on the nikkei 225. we have seen the yen strength in a little. that has weighed on export stocks. the philippines coming on line the tune of 2/10 of 1%. bit of a switch out and new zealand. -- in new zealand to some stocks we are watching in the region. a luxury jeweler coming through with earnings after the ballot hong kong yesterday. it was weaker than expected. expected to be targeting chinese tourists abroad.
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the share price down 1% in the open. merchant hyundai falling significantly after announcing a plan to issue shares for a debt swap. rise, butid actually we do have another bearish call coming through on iron ore, bhp and rio tinto falling today. bucking the trend there a little bit. we have some breaking news out of australia ahead, the aussie dollar weaker. rishaad: it has been on a tear in the last 24 hours, now giving up gains. home loan approvals for april, pointmber of loans up one 7%, below what analysts and economists had been calculating, 2.5%. it follows on the back of a drop march. under 1% in the
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this could all change when we get trade data in the hour. china set to release all that. the aussie dollar often reacts. we will have a look at the indications of an economic slowdown and whether they have moderated or not. we have been delving into this. heels off of the --, where trade was at the forefront, the value of the renminbi being devalued last august. we will look for signs of any kind of pick up and whether that weaker yuan is helping chinese exports. whether the economy has indeed stabilized with the domestic demand a critical component. we will get inflation, even ,hough china is on holiday tomorrow, and then at some point between now and the 12th, we get foreign direct investment. let's concentrate on exports.
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the u.s. dollar terms first, because they are broken down. the numbers are skewed because of that devaluation. trade is often settled in dollars, but china is also increasingly completing trades in yuan. exports expected to be down 4% in u.s. dollar terms, so a resumption of the downward trend for exports. ,arch was that big aberration 11.4% up, but again, trailing off a little bit. this is in yuan terms. we are seeing perhaps a third straight month up, but again, these numbers are distorted in yuan terms because of the value of the renminbi. rishaad: imports would give us an idea about what is going on with the domestic economy. >> absolutely. 18 months in a row, import
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numbers in china have been itling, but not as bad as used to be. let's bring that up in dollar terms first. we were expecting a follow 6.8%. the previous month was 10.9%. it has been all over the place because of the distortion in the earlier part of the year. terms,ook at it in yuan down 18 straight months, but not as bad as the dollar terms, 2.5% expected. rishaad: busy day, economically speaking. >> when is it not? rishaad: holidays and sundays. all right, anyway, japan's moremy perhaps growing than initially calculated in the first quarter. gdp expanding 1.9% with a jump in business investment providing some relief. editorrg news north asia
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, what is going on here? this is a slight revision upward. particularly in capital investment in the economy, a slight revision, still down for the first quarter. these are somewhat improved with capital spending that much off, it shows the economy is weak and businesses are not investing in the economy, not investing in wages. that means consumers will be reluctant to spend as private consumption makes up 60% of the economy. rishaad: right, now does this upward revision to growth make the decision to postpone that ores tax hike look ill-timed otherwise enrich respect? -- otherwise in retrospect. >> these numbers are better than
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, the revision was better than the initial reading, but still pretty weak. and he was concerned about what this would do in terms of a .uture recession i think these are somewhat of a relief to him, but i don't think it will rethink -- will cause them to rethink that decision, and we are expecting further stimulus in the fall. rishaad: ok, so what next for the bank of japan? where we see another move from governor kuroda? will he throwing his arms in the air and say, i have done all i can? the big question. we will hear from the bank of japan next week. forecasters are expecting further easing in july or september, depending on whether the federal reserve moves and raises rates. it is interesting, we heard from
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the japanese president and that platform last week, no mention of the bank of japan, where three years ago, the bank of japan was a big part of that campaign, a centerpiece of that campaign, rather, so it is of theg less on the mind japanese president. rishaad: great talking to you there in tokyo are checking on some other stories we are following. a new zealand interest rate cut waning chances, a 40% chance. that's down from 80% a month ago. economists views pretty mixed .ere rising fuel prices, tax increases, and housing boom may give reason to pause.
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20th century fox announces an investment in india. spend 5ia division will billion dollars on so far unannounced projects over the next two years. portfolio includes 48 television channels in eight languages. shares surging in the u.s. after billionaire investor predicted the company will become one of the biggest over the next decade two, suggesting a market value of $700 billion. tesla's biggest investors holds 1% of shares. no 73 europe saying there is competition for the carmaker and there is a good chance of expecting returns of $6 billion over that time frame. at whatet's have a look tight airways has been doing, seeking an alliance with 10 other asian carriers, designed
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to counter a move by a low-cost group. their tomean tweaking your strategy. different is this? and why is it different? well, thai airways says the man has been changing -- says demand has been changing. they says the model they have adopted in the past will need to change. is looking for bilateral tieups that could unite airlines across the region to booze connectivity in india, china, even smaller markets like myanmar and vietnam. thai airways becausethai airways does not -- because thai airways does not have the money, this strategy makes sense. it had focused on connecting , forcedthrough bangkok
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to do that by budget airlines. eight of them are forming an alliance called value of lines to fend off competition from bigger rivals like airasia. together we stand, divided we fall seems to be the mantra among airlines at the moment. rishaad: what are investors saying about the value of lines. is thai airways at risk of? >> not really. readingways could be too much into value of lines. that is what some analysts are saying. it plans to sell tickets and even agate allowance and in-flight meals across the grouping, but brings together smaller players that have a combined fleet the size of airasia. brushed off an
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alliance of a airlines. told me that it will be difficult to coordinate schedules. what the airlines can do is pretty limited. let's show you how thai airways has been trading. it has surged almost 90% year to date. that is a 12% gain in the index. analysts are pretty divided, sell,t recommending a eight suggesting a buy or hold. see how the to stock trades today and the rest of the week. rishaad: thank you. they're in singapore. coming up, hard times in the heart of china's coal industry, a special report from the shanxi province. ♪
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kong,is 9:44 a.m. in hong
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and these are the stories making headlines around the world. stepping upks that cam atm security. withdrawal limits have been lowered for users with foreign cards. say fake south african bank cards have been used. iners of beachfront homes the north of sydney are counting the cost of storm damage. waves eroded 50 meters of beachfront, severely damaging seven houses and an apartment block. owners have been warm that their insurance will not cover see damage. damage. the storms left three people dead, three missing, insurance
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claims about $40 million. china speeding up efforts to build a manned deepwater lab in the south china sea. the platform would be used to search for minerals and could be as deep as three kilometers below the surface. china has been building up its presence in the south china sea. beijing says it on 80% of the waterway, a claim contested by five southeastern asian nations. powered by over 2400 journalists and 150 bureaus around the world, this is bloomberg news. i am yvonne man. right, just getting some breaking news. the associated press, projecting bernie sanders to have won the north dakota democratic caucus. this could be fairly academic given that we had hillary clinton projected to win new jersey, taking her over the winning line to become the official candidate to run on the democratic ticket for the election in november.
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atht, now let's have a look what is going on with china rebalancing from manufacturing to consumption. do is throw up a huge set of big challenges for the countries provinces. this week, we are looking at .hree of them, is one of the largest planet.ducers on the 80% of gdp is tied to coal, and the provinces in trouble. tom mackenzie went to investigate. economic slowdown is being felt the hardest in places like this. it is a cold town in shanxi province, where more than half the population is unemployed. >> most of us are out of work. none of these people have jobs.
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where can we go? tom: even those with jobs are suffering. >> i haven't been paid for several months. the boss can't make money, so he can't pay as spirit is this as not been good for the last few years. tom: it is a bitter, new reality for a province that was one of china's fastest-growing regions. theive overcapacity and weak price of coal is undermining the economic foundations. we were shown around one of the region's biggest private mines, a $600 million debt load, and with the recent rise in prices, they still have had two/productions. this is the part of the mine where the cold is washed, loaded on trucks, and shipped out. this coal mine produced 100,000 tons in april, but that is a third of the potential capacity. the workers have seen their wages cut by 50%. that is if they are getting paid. some told us off camera that they have not had a paycheck for
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five months. coal,he economy tied to the domino effect of failing coal mines is not hard to find. this restaurant is now a distant memory. >> five years ago, we could still make money. wages were high. now most of us in town are out of work. are trying to adapt, with varying degrees of success. this is an unusual attempt at diversification. you turn it into an amusement park. until an operational mine 2010. mine boss by a former who has cashed out to focus on tourism. >> there is no further development for the coal mining industry in this area. we will make it a greener place. great, and is doing i expect more businesses like this to open. whether it will be enough
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to absorb the mounting job losses is a key question. beijing wants 500 million tons of coal capacity shut down by 2020. that is a lot of minors and associated workers out of jobs. right, we are looking at hong kong's struggling startups. why does it have trouble attracting venture capital? you're watching "trending business". ♪
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rishaad: let's have a look at some stories making headlines. david cameron has accused the leaders of the brexit campaign of lying to voters about the risks. he spoke ahead of the debate on the referendum, now two weeks away. he says the leave campaign is resorting to total untruths. opinion polls give both sides the advantage ahead of that
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referendum, but undecided voters hold the key. india's prime minister has met president obama in the oval office after they announced an agreement to an active global plan, a deal india was reluctant to join in paris. the two have announced a deal for westinghouse electric to develop sites for six nuclear reactors. growing market for everything from aircraft to iphone. prime minister modi wants american investment to kickstart a manufacturing boom. the luxury lexus has received complaints from owners about malfunctioning onboard navigation systems. they are coming from the chicago area and southern states. satellite communications have been disrupted and lexus has not found the cause. facing rising dissatisfaction.
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list worth more -- 160 of them worth $1 billion. , butbourg had one unicorn hong kong does not. are theremething, why not more startups in the territory? >> hong kong is a financial center, has a well educated population, the densest concentration of banks, so there is no shortage of money. it is a complex issue. iat does emerge from those speak to is that this is a place hindered by cultural norms that favor secured jobs and property or finance, not the risky nature of startups. that to that is the fact hong kong is dominated by a handful of wealthy families that have no incentive to let change happen. did you know that the top 10
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richest people in hong kong control more than a third of the economy. that is pretty staggering. if you compare it to other countries, it is way more than the others. me an idea of how far behind hong kong is now. >> you mention the czech republic and luxembourg. hong kong's economy is worth more than both of those countries combined. you also take a look at the venture capital flow. million, received $266 which is a third of how much was received by companies in singapore, and also there are only about 10 deals closed so far this year, less than south korea, singapore, and japan. rishaad: what is the government trying to do? >> they have tried various things with varying success. the cyber port development project was an expensive deal, luxury apartments and great
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venues, but the jury is still out on whether it was a success. over the past 12 months, a lot of effort coming out of the government. there is a $2 billion hong kong dollar fund to encourage more venture capitalist to invest in startups, and they're doing it through a matching basis, so hopefully things will turn up. rishaad: let's get quickly to what's happening with some markets out there. asia-pacific stocks at levels we have not seen, the regional benchmark near a six-week high. heinz sang and shanghai composite down. looking further afield, japan with that gdp second reading, better than anticipated. better than before, but in line with economists estimates. the nikkei 225 off, the kospi
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turning up there. we are down at the moment. of down 4/10 we're hoping to get trade data out of china fairly soon. ♪ .
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rishaad: june 8. this is "trending business." we're going to take you to sydney. asia pacific stocks losing their way after hitting a six-week high. the economy grew more than expected in the first quarter. still awaiting the latest news from china. signs of stability but also indications of well, vulnerability too.
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claiming victory, hillary clinton winning new jersey to secure the democrat nomination. she is the first woman to lead a major american party in a white house campaign. follow me on twitter. "trending business." straight to the markets. porter: of course we are awaiting key trade data due out of china. looking at the shanghai market ahead of that number coming through. coming through with quite a bit of loss after a fairly flat open. down .6%. a public holiday in china and hong kong tomorrow. china will also remain closed on friday. good movement coming through from petrochina. quitea


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