tv Bloomberg West Bloomberg June 7, 2016 11:00pm-12:01am EDT
then again strengthens -- the yen strengthens as numbers show japan's economy grew more than previously thought in the third quarter. -- in the first quarter. hillary clinton will be the first woman to lead a major presidential bid. also coming up this hour, hong kong has plenty of billionaires, but no billion dollars startups. we will ask why the city is gaining a reputation of risk-averse. keeping an eye on these markets. a fairly unconvincing day. we have been waiting for the chinese trade data, really dominating sentiment in the morning session. down .8 of 1%. japanese equities went on a lunch break down one third of 1%, really hurt by the stronger yen. energy stocks -- crude holding
at $50 plus per barrel. angie: we're still waiting for the latest chain -- the latest trade date out of china which was expected an hour ago. bloomberg is expecting a 4% decline. nothing really to watch. waiting for the customs administration. an hour ago, we were expecting the numbers. i am speculating a little bit here, but tomorrow and friday are holidays in china. this is not as absurd as the " but "waiting for godot, it is not uncommon for them to delay these numbers. expecting a 4% decline, the second month in a row of declines, year-over-year, after the march aberration, where exports suddenly leapt up. february was the lunar holiday
-- the lunar new year holiday when many factories were closed. get intoe starting to a more normalized trend. 4% down in u.s. dollar terms, expected. we have to look at it in yuan terms as well. expecting a third month in a row of increases. that is also moderated a bit. 1.5% was the consensus estimate by economists surveyed by bloomberg. let's see where imports are expected. in dollar terms, imports likely fell for a 19th executive month. moderating a bit. 6.8% decline is the estimate by economists surveyed by bloomberg. the net import of oil perhaps making that a bit. in yuan terms, same story.
that number also improving. 2.5% in yuan terms expected. i'm going to sit here underneath the tree, waiting. angie: still waiting. our other main story today is the race for the white house. perhaps the waiting is over for hillary clinton. she claimed victory in the democratic contest, making history as the first woman to lead a major presidential bid. she is expected to get the backing of president obama and take the battle to donald trump. our bloomberg politics reporter has the latest from new york. and a stored for american politics. >> hillary clinton took the stage not too long ago here in new york. she was in brooklyn, and she was belated. -- he was elated. she gave a speech that was very strong, it seemed emotional at
times. she gave bernie, her democratic opponent, some credit. she called his campaign extraordinary but she really mark tonight when she called a -- you really marked tonight what she called a milestone. the first woman to be a presumptive nominee in a major political party in the united states. her,is a big moment for and she was soaking it in, you can tell. , donald trump already going after bernie sanders supporters. what about clinton, what is your strategy? -- what is her strategy? , she left her speech no questions asked to how she would go after donald trump. she called him temperamentally unfit to be president. this is seen as more than just a shot at donald trump.
this is also seen as kind of an olive branch to bernie sanders supporters, who she has to convince to come in the next couple of weeks to her side to support her in the general election. one way she plans to do that is by showing that she is tough enough to go up against donald trump and really setting a clear difference between the campaign that she wants to run, one of inclusion, and trying to contrast back with one she is painting of donald trump, which todivisive and exclusive certain groups of the american population. that was a clear message tonight. angie: it seems that perhaps donald trump himself is providing that canon fodder in his latest remarks. -- latest rocks about that mexican judge.
what did he have to say as the backlash continues? steven: he has been under fire for about a week and he gave a speech tonight as well. it was pretty tame as far as his speeches go. he read from a teleprompter and seemed to be heeding advice from republicans who wanted to go more on script. he got to where he is today by being kind of an off script, off-the-cuff sort of politician. that is not his natural inclination. but, he was a little team today. he kind of showed -- a little tame today. wants to be the candidate the republican party wanted to be, but we will see how long he keeps that up. angie: thanks so much for that. a quick look at the other main stories we are following. down the most in almost a month as the slowdown continues to hit luxury sales.
tosing estimates by dropping $379 million. the world's largest publicly traded jewelry chain blames the slump on a lack of enthusiasm in hong kong and macau. group has cut the price of its ipo after a bribery investigation. the hotel lowered the maximum price of the sale to $4.5 billion after initial target of $5 billion. the ipo that was expected to take place this month has been pushed back to july. lotte executives were said to be client iney from a exchange for preferential treatment. amazon plans to invest $3 million more -- $3 billion more to build its business in india. billiones a total $5
since 2014, as amazon chases growth outside the u.s.. jeff bezos made the announcement in washington today. the prime minister also met with president obama during his visit. somen has already created 45,000 jobs in india. you can get more on that story and the rest of the day's news on bloomberg.com, or you can watch some of the interviews you may have missed on bloomberg today. we do appear to have breaking news. china has just released its new did -- release its newest trade data. pretty much a hint on the nose for the estimates for the exports, in dollar terms. the surprise here is imports, also faring considerably better than expected. a decline of 0.4%.
the consensus estimate was for a fall of 6.8%. again, the higher oil price could be attributed to that. although it is a very small fall of 0.4%, is the 19th consecutive month that imports, in dollar terms, have fallen. att leaves the trade surplus $49.98 billion. imports did better than expected. exports pre-much in line with expectations, down 4.1% year-over-year in may. angie: let's get back to markets. a bit of a topsy-turvy wednesday session for asia. we were waiting for that data from china. juliette: finally, it is here. we can unshackle steve from the desk. just a bit of a pop coming through on the aussie dollar. it has risen significantly, still down .2%, but it was up
about .4%. you can see the spike that has come through just as that trading data finally hit the wire. just having a look to the reaction in equity markets. we had the shanghai composite down about 0.8%. still pretty much negative, down 0.75%. not too much of a reaction coming through there. the hong kong market is weaker by 0.4%. the chinese market is going to be closed for the remainder of the week after today and hong kong will be closed tomorrow. seen a bit ofhave mixed movement coming through from the southeast asian markets. not a lot of conviction, but we have been very much waiting. investors still getting their heads around that. japan went on their lunch break down about one third of 1%.
we have seen materials down about -- flat in korea. i want to show you some of the movers we have been watching in the region, away from the ones we have been talking about. iron ore players -- we have had a call saying they are seeing iron ore at $40 by 2017. they expect that chinese steel demand will drop. hyundai merchant dropping quite significantly. it has stalled on a plan to issue shares for a debt swap. heading the other way, kong ho tire.- kumho wasrting that the ag looking to acquire a stake. mixed, players next, -- but many are higher. angie: coming up later this
>> it is 11:14 in hong kong. the latest troubled state investment fund is deciding its liquidity position after learning the ratings on one of its bonds. the fund insists that its liquidity is strong and it remains focused on executing its rationalization plan. the debt for what it calls business reasons. the debt amounts to $1.75 billion. 1mdbereign fund led to
defaulting on a payment in april. sluggish corporate spending in major economies such as the u.s. and japan. the bank forecasts that gdp will grow this year, down from projections. toyota is facing more bumps in the road. it's luxury lexus brand has received complaints from owners about functioning onboard navigation systems. the complaint comes from the chicago area and across the southern states. they say the systems have been disrupted they have not yet found because. lexus has the highest ranking in jd power pop latest survey, but is facing rising dissatisfaction. in 150 bureaus around the world, this is numbered news. angie: let's get back to the markets. we just got the chinese data and our next guest says china is
relatively safe in terms of its growth. what do the trade data from china tell us? grexit they are consistent with the other trade data across -- >> i think they are consistent with the other trade data across asia. stabilization, aggressive declines in trade seem to be stabilizing. i think part of it is currency movement. part of it is that the trade adjustment is quite mature. in some countries last year we were getting export declines of 15% year-over-year. you need some week global conditions for that to persist for too long. the global economy does seem a little more stable these days. the interaction of those factors. angie: as you say, currency fluctuation is part of the explanation we see in the drop of the fx reserves. much of it was due to the currency flows in europe and japan.
what does this mean for the chinese consumer domestically? imports did drop, but not to the level expected. richard: domestically, a lot of the indicators say the economy is doing ok. you still expect some gradual moderation in growth over time. the interesting thing about china is that views are so polarized. last year, people said it was because there is no credit growth, this year they say too much credit growth. that seems to signal views that are too entrenched and not looking at the evidence. the evidence is that china will have a reasonable growth year. the instability in the property market is what drove the incredible job in equities and then the subsequent drop. of course, the instability in the r&d. richard: a big source of concern not just for china. angie: where do you think it will go?
richard: i think what the fed does by considering more the global implications and what those mean for the u.s., it goes more gradually over time, so you still get some renminbi appreciation, but it goes to 6% per it goes 3% year rather than month. used get -- you still get something less destabilizing. angie: japan, better than first-quarter, but, at the same time, nobody is denying that there are serious problems in japan. richard: the litmus test is no wage growth, no inflation. that is common to a lot advanced economies. in japan, i think that their tolerance of that is substantially lower. we do have some stronger oil price dynamics coming through. that should give us some
slightly better numbers. -- i hope thenk bank of japan will take a backseat and allow some of the policies to work through the system. there are some good signs. unemployment is not far away from the in 15 or 20 years. angie: that it is not stoking the kind of wage growth anyone wanted to stoke? richard: or anywhere. japan, the u.k., the u.s.. that is the major question. angie: for any economist -- what do you -- you don't think that monetary policy is the answer? you have to think that fiscal policy needs to come through. been clear as not to what to expect in terms of budget stimulus. if we are waiting, and you have a wish list, what do you want to see?
richard: the wish list is only structural reform side, trying to free up the economy, labor market. economies, is probably too slow facing -- to slow considering the strong headwinds we face. i think we usually think about japan is being a particular demographic story, but all the economy -- all the demographics are on the wrong side, where the working age population is shrinking. we all need to get used to this idea that we need to do things smarter and governments need to reform if we want to sustain growth. facetious,ess, to be we do have to rely on the politicians. this is also leading to pressure and voices talking about helicopter money.
richard: there is nothing in the growth story that says we are really thinking about that as a viable near-term policy chance. angie: it sounds like people want japan to shop the system. oc -- to shock the system. richard: i think part of the issue is the financial crisis and lack of policy requirements -- policy response. want to see lower interest rates and more liquidity, they are not necessarily responding to that in a positive way because they are interpreting that as a signal of underlying week this. that means, if you deliver policy and it is not as effective as it might have been at interest rate levels, i would rather focus on the structural side. unemployment is falling in most of the major advanced economies. $50 andrices sustain at
in hong kong? >> it is a strange conundrum. hong kong is a well-educated population, a financial help. the -- financial hub. there is no shortage of money. but there are things that emerge from the entrepreneurs and professors, and they say hong kong is really hindered by the cultural norms that savor more traditional industries. added to that is the fact that this is a place really controlled by a handful of wealthy families who have no incentive to change the status quo. more than one-third of hong kong's economy is controlled by the 10 richest people. angie: some of them are not necessarily -- they are in these -- in the tech startup scene, but why not more money flowing here specifically? is it behind? isina: hong kong's economy
bigger than luxembourg and the czech republic combined. million invested in hong kong tech startups, one-third of what was invested in singapore. there are a lot of systemic reasons. money.s not enough vc most of the pc costs -- most of choose not to set up in hong kong. angie: it is absolutely like a self realizing -- what can the hong kong government do about it question mark -- about it? selina: the development project you probably heard of, it cost 13 million hong kong dollars. over the past 12 months, i think the government is really starting to get some fear of missing out and they have been putting in some investment. wang, thank you so
♪ get america's fastest internet. only from xfinity. >> china's exports weakened in may. still not delivering sustained growth. the shipments fell 4.1% in .ollar terms from a year ago 0.4% to leave a $50 billion trade surplus. in emotional who says she wants to write the next chapter in u.s. history after clinching the democratic presidential nomination. she told supporters she wishes her mother could have seen her become the first woman to contest the white house for a major party.
she also congratulated her democratic rival bernie sanders on his campaign and blasted donald trump as unfit to be president. is said to have lowered its 2016 growth target to 5.1%. .he new forecast down from 5.3% domestic consumption sluggish and a tax shortfall threatening public spending. the president's election pledge to keep expansion at 70%. those are the headlines from -- at 7%. those of the headlines from bloomberg news. let's get the latest on markets as japan comes back online. juliette: it is the middle of the trading week. it has been a fairly unconvincing session. japan has actually come back online. .t went into the breakdown 0.3% the happen some buying trades coming through.
downhanghai composite also 0.4%. the export numbers at 4.1% year on year, pretty much what the market was looking for. giving investors further reason. both of these markets will be on a public holiday tomorrow, and china will remain closed on friday as well. asia,g around southeast pretty mixed movement. three big gains coming through in the philippines. korea flat after the solid session yesterday, but we are still seeing the won strengthened against the dollar. worryl surprises to investors there. we have seen a little bit of buying coming through in the last half hour. i want to show you the spike we saw in the aussie dollar. the aussie still weaker against the greenback, but it certainly had that big jump as the dollar
came through. down 0.1%. 74.50.e holding at that is the state of play in the markets. angie: japan's economy grew slightly more than initially expected in the first quarter. gdp expanded 1.9% on the year with its investment providing some really for prime minister shinzo abe. let's bring in bloomberg asia economy editor joey snyder. is growth sustainable at these levels? >> these were improved numbers. that improved numbers in gdp. the capital spending number, which drove this slight improvement is still down. it is better than the initial reading, but it is still not
where the government would like to see it. i think that is the question. can they get there to be more business investment in the economy? the weights growth has been very slow. because of that, consumers are not spending. is made up of personal consumption. in less that business and consumption goes up markedly, you will probably not see an increase in consumer spending. angie: we still didn't see an upward revision of gdp. does this suggest that perhaps shinzo abe? delay of the -- shinzo abe's delay of the sales tax hike could have been a little early? good newsink this is for him. any improvement is good news. i don't think he is probably rethinking that decision. again, because of the concern about consumer spending in 2014,
when they raise the sales tax here. the economy went to a recession. that is what he wanted to avoid. still behey will seeing the stimulus that he spoke about in the speech he made last week when he announced he was delaying the sales tax increase. it does look like there will be fiscal stimulus in the fall. angie: what about monetary stimulus? boj still expected to make another move. if so, when? jodi: that is the big question. forecasters are telling us that they think there will be some policy changes between now and the september meeting. that depends on what the fed does and when the fed might raise rates in the u.s.. that, itexpect some of is interesting that monetary policy, at least in the government's view, is not having the same importance as it did several years ago.
the campaign platform for the ruling party does not mention in boj or monetary easing the campaign platform that came out last week, whereas in the past, it was a centerpiece of the platform. thai airways is mulling over an opportunity to tackle competition from low-cost rival. it is seeking an alliance with as many as 10 other asian characters -- asian carriers. let's get more from our southeast asia correspondent. why a different tack here? >> you can't compete the same way anymore. it is a different game. if you take a look at travel demand, it has changed. it is adding pressure to add destinations. two ways to do that, make acquisitions or form partnerships. since thai air doesn't have the
money for acquisitions, it needs to get in line for 10 possible partners to provide better connectivity in big markets like china, india. also smaller markets like vietnam and myanmar. a tweak to its turnaround plan. no longer focused on connecting traffic through bangkok. opposition is heating up. that forced 8 of them, the likes of tiger airways, to form an alliance called value alliance. the main aim is to send noncompetition from bigger rivals like airasia. now, it does look like full-service carriers may be feeling the heat as well. angie: this is what is stoking the market here. what does this mean for thai airways? >> at first glance, value
alliance looks like a big deal. the first pan asian low-cost alliance. it will stretch from japan to malaysia. it will sell in-flight meals across the grouping. dig deeper. it groups together smaller players. they will have a combined fleet about the same size as airasia, no more than that. even airasia is unfazed. it will be difficult for value alliance to coordinate schedules , match arrival and departure times. let's show you how thai airways has been trading. it is that almost 90% year to date. divided. 8 suggesting a buy or hold. angie: sounds like turbulence. thanks so much for that. checking in on some other stories we are following.
the latest sales numbers show demand for cars still rising in china. 11.4% and more than 750,000 vehicles. says it isrd considering a plan to produce upmarket models. atm security after losing more than $15 million. operators of cash machines in convenience stores have lowered the withdrawal limit for customers using foreign cars. the fraudulent withdrawals took on -- took place on may 15 across japan. they say police have arrested three suspects. modi hasime minister met with president obama in the oval office. they announced agreements to enact a global crime and deal --
global climate deal that india was reluctant to join in paris last year. the u.s. sees india as a growing market for everything from iphones. the u.s. to kickstart the manufacturing boom. sources are telling bloomberg that bhp and glencore may be among the bidders of angle merkel's: assets in australia. it looks like there may be a -- anglo american's assets in australia. >> bhp and glencore will be joining the queue if the information is correct. also, apollo global management put in a joint bid. as you can imagine, none of
these companies are making an official comment. all of this information is according to those people familiar with the matter. it is understood that these mines may fetch up to $1.5 million. it is part of a wider accent that's wider as it sales program. they're looking to raise money to pay down debts and focus on other parts of the business. it is curious that bhp might be involved in the bidding of these assets. at the same time, they have been bought out of a metallurgical coal project. a bit of a mixed message coming from the world of the biggest miner. angie: paul allen watching that. thank you so much. coming up, worries over china's debt are overgrown -- are overblown. are they?
kong, 12:42 in hong in tokyo. the stories making headlines around the world. bruce pearl minister david cameron has accused the leadership of the so-called grexit campaign of -- so-called brexit campaign of lying to voters. he spoke ahead of the referendum which is two weeks away. campaignays the leave is resorting to total untruths. show undecided voters may hold the key. a new zealand interest rate cut this week. chance,s are seeing 40% that is down from 80% among to go. 17 economists surveyed by
bloomberg expect the rate to be held. rising fuel prices. also have tax increases. a housing boom may give cause to delay. speaking of records to build a water line in the south china sea. the science industries is the platform would be used to search for merit -- or minerals and would be three kilometers beneath the surface. says it on 80% of the waterway. powered by over 2400 journalists around the world, this is bloomberg news. the only bureau that counts, at least for us right now, is this one. joining me are avon and -- are yvonne and haidi. i know we talked about china and
the trade data, but we need to continue it. stabilization is the key but the debt pile is the concern. >> china trying to tackle the debt without tackling the overall economy with export drivers. >> the only question really is timing. it will probably suffer some adjustments, no doubt about that. traded with the way we china precrisis. we traded goods rather than services. in the sense that there needs to be some adjustment in some sectors, that sector has to be front and center. i think they will try and manage that slowly. >> are they getting the balance ok, do you think? richard: i think gdp is pretty stable between 6% and 7%. you think there is too much
focus on leverage. isn't it more that we might not get a financial system implosion, but that the debt is going to slowly grinds down on growth? richard: i think it probably will grinds down on growth. china's growth is moving toward the sort of growth rates we see even in other parts of asia, even in low single-digit race occasionally. if the chinese economy is double the size, low rates of growth and sustain periods of time is how they will have that status. it is avoiding the collapse that is also -- that is often characterized in emerging markets. >> we have heard from janet yellen and it seems like we might not see a rate hike this summer. what does that mean for the pboc and the doj as well? richard: people have said the fed's data depends, and what has
changed since february -- something happened at the g 20 meeting in february and we don't really know what. we can tell with the fact that they are much more cognizant with how their policy actions affect the rest of the world. if that change persists, that is a much more benign outcome when you think of u.s. monetary policy and impact on the region. the prospect of the fed hiking and causing leverage issues is very, very low. i think that brings a lot more balance in and that also makes is concerned about another one of the tail risks, which is the renminbi depreciation. economically, i think the world is in much better shape. a lot of the risks we're worried about in the first half are diminishing, if not going away. the economic risks look a lot better, i think. >> june 23.
a lot of people are now starting to raise the flag. is a little chance -- there is little upside to the vote to stay. if they vote to leave, what could we see? will be i think there tremendous uncertainty, no doubt about that. the obvious impacts will be on volatility. i would imagine the currency market liquidity will probably evaporate and the bank of england will be interested in trying to fill some of that gap. if you are going to a referendum 0, i would always say that the know will get up. the people's inherent conservatism at the end. the issue is that the people who are most likely to vote yes are the people who are most likely to vote. there are potentially enough people who don't vote. >> you see how volatile the
polls are, too. it is your main, the other day it is leave. we saw the indian central bank yesterday saying it would cause more turmoil if britain did vote for a brexit. richard: actually, there are some similarities between what is happening in the u.s. and u.s. politics and brexit. actually, the part of the global labor market that has done least well over the last 10 years as the middle to upper middle class in the advanced economies. they are the parts that are expressing dissatisfaction around, why am i part of europe, it seems like you are just sending me more immigrants, or, why do i want to vote for another establishment figure in the u.s.? >> in fairness, at least some of the u.s. perspective, you are hearing about close to full employment.
you have an employment figure that does not reflect what is truly the case, which is people are so disappointed that they have stopped looking for work, so they don't show up. richard: even people in jobs, are they getting enough hours, are they in jobs that fulfill them, and are their incomes ? the answer to that question in a lot of advanced economies are no, unfortunately. that feeds a little bit of this political dynamic. well,na, of course, as very conscious. richard: you look at the steel factor. we are seeing still capacity taken out of the global sector. china is persisting with those. enjoy your visit here in hong kong.
angie: some breaking news from japan. panasonic shares jumping after elon musk tweeted about an exclusive deal. said he will work exclusively with panasonic for the model three and models as and -- models s and x. panasonic fell on tuesday with reports that the model three would also use samsung batteries. as china rebalance is from manufacturing to consumption, it will probably face big challenges. -- guangdong'st
local biggest economy. shanxi is stalling. shanxi is one of the largest coal producers on the planet. but, it's mines have been loaded up on debt, and most are unprofitable with 80% of gdp tied to call. tom mackenzie reports. tom: china's economic slowdown is being held -- being felt hardest in places like this. , where,n in shanxi according to people we spoke to, more than half of the population is unemployed. >> we don't have jobs, where can we go? >> even those with jobs are suffering. >> i haven't been paid for several months. the boss can't make any money so we can pay us. business hasn't been good for the past few years. tom: it is a bitter new reality for the coal rich province.
now, massive overcapacity and the week price of coal is undermining shanxi's economic foundations. we were shown around one of the region's biggest private mines. even with a recent modest rise in prices, they have had two/production. >> is the part of the mine where the coal is washed and loaded onto trucks and shipped out. this coal mine produced 100,000 tons of coal in april, but that is just one third of their potential capacity. >> the workers have seen their wages cut by up to 50%. some told was off-camera that they haven't had a paycheck for five months. effect of failing coal mines. >> five years ago, we can still make money. wages were high.
hard trying to adapt with varying degrees of success. due to varying degrees of diversification, you can take an old coal mine and turn it into enemies the park. the mountain villa, as it is called, was an operational mine in 2010. it is owned by a former mine boss who cast out of coal to focus on tourism. >> we're going to transform the environment to replant and make it a greener place. this resort is doing great and i expect more businesses like this to open. there will be enough to absorb the mounting job losses will be a key question. they want more than 500 million tons of the coal capacity shut down by 2020. that is a lot of minors and associated workers out of jobs. bloomberg markets middle east coming up at the top of the hour.
it is manus cranny standing by. a very good day to you. tax, tax, tax. according to the great national transformation program out of cell -- out of saudi arabia, it has been floated again. flying?st kind it is in the program. therefore, it is something that will be discussed. we will discuss that with our guests. franklin templeton joins me, he is the cohead of asset management. what does this mean in terms of equities, bonds, and investment? we will have to out drew doughty. tracy galloway is up there. -- out to all drew doughty -- out to abu dhabi. we will be talking bond sales. angie: that is it for us on this edition of "asia edge."