tv Countdown Bloomberg June 14, 2016 1:00am-2:31am EDT
anna: a boost for boris. polls but the u.k. on track to leave the eu. >> all my knowledge of the u.k. is that at the end, people will sense why it is important to stay part of the strong common market. anna: as chinese stocks fall again, msci decides on whether to include mainland shares in its global benchmark. cloudoft's push for the could create stormy weather for the tech firm as moody's says they could cut the credit rating
following the purchase of linkedin. countdown -- "countdown." i am anna edwards. it has just gone six a clock in the morning. manus: -- 6:00 in the morning. manus: it has just gone 9:01 here. let's get straight to value destruction. it is all about those four polls . sterling might be volatile, but what you have here is on the back of these four polls and the front page of "the sun," channeling 1992, we can become richer, safer, and free. the msci all world value destruction.
trillion has been wiped off the value of equity markets. we have nothing a run of losses like this on a global scale since february 11. recordo alone, they are shortselling. another bank of japan is playing in their, but if you are look -- playing in there, but if you are looking for the real risk off -- anna: all parts of the globe been given something to think about. let's see where we are on currency markets and broader assets as well. the pound is once again weaker. the dollar index is flat. versus the dity ollar at its highest since 2008. down 0.9% against the japanese currency as we see investors snapping up yen in all of this
nervousness about what will happen around the eu referendum. the gold price is actually retreating just a touch. down 0.25%. not seeing the flight of all of the risk assets as we have been seeing. later,stockpiled data but a lot of the news flow seems to be around nigeria and that the government is having conversations with militants to end attacks on oil installations. let's get the bloomberg first word news. britainirl -- nejra: seems to be on course to exit the european union. sun" hash blow, "the backed brexit on its front page. yesterday saw volatility in the
currency markets as the pound - microsoft's credit rating may be cut by moody's following its $26 billion purchase of linkedin. the agency made the announcement hours after the technology giant says it plans to fund the takeover with debt. it is the most extensive move so far in the ceo's plan to remake the company to the future where most business computing happens over the internet. >> there is a microsoft graph which is about people, their relationships, their calendars, their projects. you connect to that with the professional graph and then you start completing the scenarios. you do not need to change the social network, but you do need to bring those together seamlessly. orlandok obama says the
nightclub killer was inspired by extremist propaganda. there is new evidence he was directed from abroad. the united states says omar mateen is the kind of homegrown terrorist authorities have long feared. a handgun and buy a handgun and assault rifle legally because he has no criminal record. 49 people were killed in the nightclub shooting. pres. obama: at the last minute, he announced allegiance to isil. there is no evidence so far that he was directed. at this stage, there is the direct evidence he was part of a larger plot. buying houses in sydney will pay a new property tax from next month. the new south wales state government will introduce a 4% duty surcharge and a land tax worth 0.75% on top of current
charges. similar costs are in place in victoria and follow the moves by the banks to tighten -- on the find more stories bloomberg at top . get up to speed with these markets. the pressure is on money flowing into the yen. equities are getting pummeled. david ingles has the latest. good morning. you were talking about the amount of fell you to structure and. value amount of destruction. this risk aversion we have been painting in russia. -- look at euro-yet.
we are way below 120. 119.58 is your level. bidding up not just against the dollar or the euro. this, looklated to at the bond markets. different day, same story. we are looking at record lows again. new lows for japanese yields. 16 basis points below zero on the 10 year jgb. australia has touched a record low as well. 162. korea, the u.s. is at 161, just for context. the equity markets, fourth straight day underwater. 4.5% from thursday's close.
manus: david ingles in hong kong. the prime minister of the netherlands has warned the u.k. against leaving the european union. he's had life outside the world's biggest trading block status andbritain's prove economically damaging. >> i think there is such a strong case for the u.k. to remain as a member of the european union, and to remain part of the single market. geopolitically, economically -- in many aspects. in the netherlands, we really want you to stay. anna: the dutch prime minister speaking at an event yesterday. boris johnson said the pro-european camp is misjudging the british people. >> the remain campaign say that we can't. they are and leslie negative. this -- they are endlessly
negative. they say we cannot do it on our own. i said they are woefully underestimating this country and the ability of the british people. anna: joining us here in the of benson.he cio great to have you on the program. when you are looking at what is going on in global markets, we have a chart that shows the nervousness, or what of the inputs to that nervousness. there is live data coming, people saying where they think it will go. we have jumped from a 39% chance of brexit, which is higher than 20% in may. now, this is imperfect information, but the polls are giving us imperfect information by their admission. what do you make of it?
>> i think you are right that the polls provider imperfect information, but odds checker is a bit more accurate. this is a troubling sign in terms of the odds of a brexit scenario. troubling because it creates this cloud of uncertainty. we know that economies all over the world are fragile. all economies need is a big external event like this to create major slowdown. channeling 1992, flashbacks of my youth. this is the front page of "the sun." it is talking about be-leave. the rhetoric is appealing to a broad base of people. shift market nervousness? >> without a doubt. the recent polls have made the
markets more jittery. the reality is that the polls will swing around. we still have another week in terms of the referendum. we will get further data points that will create further uncertainty. in terms of the implications on the economy, -- a lot of people have studied this, in the short run, it creates economic headwind. in the long run, nobody knows. anna: it's interesting that manus is bringing up like a 92 -- 1992. you have a comparison that goes back to black wednesday. did to u.k. assets. what lessons can we take? >> we saw depreciation in the pound, but the markets withstood that.
equity markets are up 25% in the u k six month later. sixrnment -- in the u.k. months later. governments rallied. we hadart of it was that a newfound freedom and monetary policy. that is not a direct comparison with today, is it? >> it will never be exact parallels, but the uncertainty of a new environment and new economic regime -- you can draw some parallels. if you think about what would leave to major market losses, more often it is the you for ready -- euphoria of equity markets. we do not have that today. manus: i have moved on from my 1992 flashbacks. volatility has become expensive. vicks.tocks versus the volatility in europe up by 73%. what is my risk reward?
let's put the polls aside. waking up on the 24th. the world has said we have decided to remain. what is the upside? is this one of the most wonderful, salient opportunities you have ever seen? >> the upside on the 24th, should there be ane xit -- an exit outcome is the market could present huge value opportunities. volatility spiking to these levels -- it is still early days. what we see in these environments is that volatility tends to cluster and stay elevated for a long time. we still haven't seen that in financial markets. being patient is probably more sensible. anna: just getting news of a bid for premier -- it is a u.k. business.
market cap is only 406 million pounds, but it is a u.k. company nine days out from the eu referendum. they distribute electronic equipment internationally and are receiving a bid today with of 1.9price value billion swiss -- 1.09 billion swiss francs. of will pay 1.65 per share premier farnell. we get u.k. inflation data. half an hour later, euro area industrial production numbers will be released. later on, the federal reserve begins its tuesday policy meeting. msci will.k. time, announce the results of its annual review including whether
bribery and corruption. -- ins and south korea' south korea's companies have declined after a spokeswoman said prosecutors are searching the company's headquarters in seaoul. investigations continue into alleged slush funds and embezzlement. takata is selling shares in auto companies to raise cash for compensation claims over it potentially lethal product. offloaded uploaded -- most of the 2.2 million shares it held in honda. it also has holdings and toyota, andan, mitsubishi motors, suzuki. revenuethird-quarter forecast by -- they say regulators have produced advertising from drug
companies and other health care groups. that follows the death of a university student linked to an unproven cancer treatment he found in an online search. manus: hanslinda, think you very much. microsoft's rating may be cut by moody's following the purchase of linkedin. emily chang has this report on the deal. emily: it is the biggest deal in microsoft's history, one of the biggest in the history of technology. microsoft is buying linkedin for $26.2 billion in an all-cash deal. this is a deal that took almost everyone by surprise. there were no indications this was in the works. when you think about it, microsoft has more than one billion customers using microsoft office. linkedin has 433 million members. there is potential to significantly scale in each other's growth.
microsoft is saying that this increases the total market by 58%. i spoke with both ceo's today. crosoft's had to say about what. >> -- about why. >> it is about bringing together the core networks. the dream we have had is how can we connect these two worlds tso can-- worlds so these users work more seamlessly. emily: the other question is, will we see more deals as a result?
another deal not getting much attention is symantec buying blue coat software. we are also looking at other smaller energy companies as potential targets. is this all-out war on salesforce? edin couldplus link
be a from edible challenge. -- could be a formidable challenge. >> it will be interesting to see the way the rest of the industry response. >> i'm sure it will be interesting to see how the industry and customers respond. it is all about adding value to our customers. >> the biggest question of all is integration execution. can microsoft make this work? microsoft has not had a great history of integrating big deals. if you look at nokia, or skype to a certain extent. one of our gadfly columnists put it bluntly,
can microsoft do this wiht -- without breaking its new toy? i am emily chang in san francisco. manus: a great round up by emily. i've gone to bloomberg intelligence. they have run the numbers to see who gets what. this,med, take a look at
these are some of the stats. for hundred 33 million users from linkedin. 7 million active job listings and 2 million pet subscribers. standpoint,rategic it seems like a natural extension of microsoft's business. from a financial standpoint, microsoft is sitting on a load of cash. it has $100 billion in cash. it needs to put that to work. it is quite amusing that it is called an all cash deal. it is an all debt deal. the multiples they are paying are potentially excessive. this is very much on the prospect of integrating the business successfully, which as was noted, could be a challenge. anna: this is reid hoffman.
just got $1 billion richer. boosted by this approach by microsoft. you talked about the tax advantage. a great story on bloomberg about how this means they do not have to repatriate some of their cash. it could bring down future tax bills. this isn't really the reason they are doing this? there must be underlying business logic. >> without a doubt. they need to stay competitive in a competitive industry. they have $3 billion in cash on short in the u.s., and 97 offshore. it does make sense from their cfo's standpoint to finance the deal using debt. china?is it all about trying to get ahead in china by whatever mechanism possible. facebook blocked in china, apple
did a deal in china. withut lincoln's growth it -- what about linkedin's growth within china? >> is the wider emerging market. as those countries become more affluent, as they have more in the workforce, then linkedin and other players will do well. there is an emerging market angle. this is looking at how they can market the microsoft strength with the linkedin strength. anna: what do you like in the tech industry, or do you at the moment? where are you putting money to work in this sector? >> the tech industry is compelling from a valuation standpoint. unlike 2000 when it was trading at 40-50 times earnings.
there isn't that excessive valuation at the sector level. what we look for in stocks is high-quality, cash generative companies. cisco comes to mind. they are building the infrastructure for the future. internet companies and other such like things. manus: tell me this. everyone is racing to know where the next deal comes from. does this light the torch? there have been a few deals in the past months. doesn't like a torch in the tech space? surgedter actually yesterday on the back of this announcement on the expectation someone will come in and buy it. the tech titans have cash. and googleosoft, have a lot of cash and they will be looking to deploy it. anna: thank you very much. in or out.
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manus: 1:30 p.m. in hong kong. good morning. 6:30 a.m. in london. britain appears to be on course to exit the european union with four poles of three companies putting the leaving campaign ahead of remain. the uk's biggest selling sun" is backing the brexit on the front page. ssespounds one with lo and gains.
the rating may become by moody's 96.2 billionf the dollar purchase of linkedin. the ratings agency made the announcement just hours after microsoft said they planned to fund the takeover with debt. this is the most expensive move - thee dell is a push ceo's push. >> there is a graph about their calendars and projects. human dynamics is part of that with other information and crm. connect that with the professional graph and you start completing the scenarios. these thingsring together seamlessly. says the barack obama allegedly club killer was influenced by extremist
propaganda but there was no inclination that he was influenced from abroad. he is the kind of homegrown terrorist they have long feared. he was interviewed twice by the f ei but was able to buy a handgun and assault rifle legally because he had no criminal record. 49 were killed in the pulse night club shooting. he announcedma: his allegiance to isolate the last minute, but there -- announced his allegiance to isil but there is no direct evidence that he was part of a larger plot. taxinda: a new property moves next month. the state government will andoduce a 4% surcharge this is on top of the current charges. similar costs are already in place in the torilla and follow moves to tighten lending to
property lenders overseas. for global news 24 hours a day powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. more stories on the terminal. anna: haslinda, thank you. the uk's upcoming vote healing anxiety ahead of key central-bank meetings this week. nejra has more. good morning. risk aversion, volatility rising, moving into safe haven assets. i want to start with the pound and the yen. this has pushed down sterling seeing this at the two-month low , the worst performer against the dollar while the yen, the safe haven, is the best performer. the yen approaching it strongest level since october 2014.
$1.41 sterling. the yield fall into another -0.17%.ecord, with volatility rising not just in fx markets but equities as well. vicks and nikkei volatility has hit its highest level since march which is year today. relatively measured by j.p. morgan also spiking, as you can see, toward the end of the chart. two weeks volatility at its highest since 2009, one month at the highest since 2008. a lot of concern and jitters in the market just ahead of the eu referendum but also, as you mentioned, ahead of various
central-bank decisions not the least from the fed. no change expected from the fed. moving on to asian stocks, fallen for a fourth day. -day loss is about 4.2%, the steepest slide since february pushing the msci to a three-week low. crude has extended its decline from the lowest close in more than a week ahead of the u.s. stock file data. oil-rich nigeria says they have talks with the militants and we have a new member of the bloomberg team who joins us now. welcome to bloomberg. chart of the hour. welcome and take it away. >> it's a great way to kick off the week here in london. isically, the opec report digesting as we wait for the eia
numbers on wednesday. the key headline is the impact nigeria is having. the opec report is citing nigeria is the chief culprit in the 100,000 per barrel drop bringing it down to 32.6 million barrels per day in may. if you put this up across the oil price over a longer time, take a look at this fascinating chart. nigerian oil production down 29% since january 31. as the lowest production figure since 1989, manus. take a closer look what happens after january 31. the scale, how steep the decline is and how it overlaps with the change and inflection point with the oil price as well. it gives you some clarity to the impact and this is causing nigeria a lot of money as it foreign-currency reserves. anna: there are conversations
withg place -- happening oil infrastructure and that's key for where we go next. yousef: we had the nigerian government be more conciliatory -- beenthey've saying saying. we don't have much of a response really, anna, from the group. we have an unverified statement on a website saying they would like to see a conducive atmosphere and repeated the warning store oil companies not to repair pipelines but to be taken with a grain of salt. we will see what they can salvage and try to recover some of the lost oil production. gamal joining us with oil prices. much more coming up from him in the months ahead. index tracking global investors,
whether they will be compelled to stop buying shares. let's take a look at what they're letting themselves in for. sam is the bloomberg team leader for asian market structure joining us now from hong kong. great to have your insights this morning. what's the feeling about the msci decision looming and which way it's going to go? to be honest, you hear all sorts of opinions. a few weeks back there was a feeling that they definitely would. you spoke to some people in there was a sense they would lean against. nobody knows for sure. you see that the shares are down and they are not having a good week. it could suggest the market thinks the chinese shares will not be added to the index. manus: this is the great issue,
isn't it? between the active fund managers tusslesave a few between the two. how significant would the inclusion be? it's not everyone who wants it, is it? is the world's largest index compiler. of course, not all of the emerging-market indexes are involved, but we saw and hsbc report that upwards of $30 billion could flow into chinese-listed shares. when you think about the chinese complex down, those it be pension funds, 401(k), mutual funds would have to go into the market because they would need to match the index if indeed msci does include chinese shares today. mamudi, team leader on asian market structure from
hong kong on what we can expect from the msci. this is quite significant, isn't it, whether the mainland shares will be included in this msci index? it could influence the markets quite a lot. would push passive investors to be included in china. global investors are used to investing in emerging markets and the volatility that comes with it. a substantial market and would have a huge countrye on that all index. there is some investment in thoughts to not want to be involved in the volatile market. manus: the bloomberg tracker still says 6.9% growth and we have seen commodities come back towards a bull market. the world seems to rest easier on china for the moment. do you? china has many troubling
paradigm shifts in terms of moving it from its export-led model to more of a consumer-led model. that will come with short, medium, and a long-term consequences and the huge amount of debt that's been accumulated. china is a running about 240% debt to gdp ratio and a lot of it is corporate, one of the highest in the world. that was pointed out earlier in the week from the imf. wehave a nice chart --anna: have a nice chart looking at how this has been increasing an appeal since the outflow took place in may. a lot of people are crediting the msci decision with this. what is your overall thought about investing in china? you say they want to make an active choice and they don't necessarily want to be caught up in investing through the msci
index. what would you be doing with china? visit difference between being a forced investor in the market, if you look at the chinese equity market right now, it is presenting value so part of the inflow could be on the back of value investors coming into the market. we will not pick and choose stocks but just invest in a market that is distressed. also some people buy into the long-term story of emerging markets. for us, china and asia as a whole is an area we and actively investing in. we see value there, more so than the developed markets which have seen strong performances in recent years. there's a bit of a shakedown in the space. we have the longest losing streak in as many months. msci produced for the fourth day. -- reduced for the fourth day. this is probably more of a briggs at risk. -- brexit risk.
what are the ramifications for the region? what is the worst potential victim, as it were, of china at the moment? mouhammed: its neighbors, obviously, are highly affected. they have a lot of trade with china. if there are challenges in the economy they will suffer the most. the european economy is highly dependent on china as well. if we see a slowdown in china, it will effect the global economy. china today is what the u.s. used to be 20-50 years ago in terms of global impact. it's a concern for all. the transition story. this is our monthly gdp tracker and it tries to work out what it means for a gdp number. this has been since the middle 5%2014 between the mid 7% on this monthly gdp
tracker. is this as low as china gets in the midst of this reorientation to a consumer-driven economy? will it go down in history is quite an achievement? mouhammed: i will be quite surprised that they can sustain this level of growth. in 2007, china was growing at 14% and now it's close to half that amount. a growing, mature economy cannot sustain 7% growth. the low single digits have ramifications. it's fascinating when we have here, the global trading relationships for china as they slow down. it is the united states and south korea where the great big trading relationship goes. now i begin to understand the lew inal link from jack terms of what happens with the yuan, don't we?
mouhammed: as you say, these links are very strong at present given the nature of the chinese trading that it's a economy. as it shifts to a consumer-let economy, those relationships become less relevant. still relevant but not as relevant as they've been in the last few decades. that is the delicate shift that the chinese authorities have to work with. unprecedented, in some ways, and challenging against the global backdrop that's not very positive right now. choukeirhammed: staying with us. which of the four main party leaders come out best during last night's tv election debate? brexit is not the only political question hanging over europe right now. we are days away and we returned to the spanish electoral story.
148 a.m. in the city that never sleeps. -- 1:48 a.m. virtually unchanged and u.s. equity traders sit hernandez cds -- equity traders sit down and they see these 4 holes. let's go to haslinda amin. quit auditing has the global foot all body but the reasons why have not then released. fisa still trying to clean up a reputation with allegations of widespread corruption and they welcome the chance to work with a new arbiter. alibaba founder said the
counterfeit goods are now better than the genuine article complicating the attempts to root out fakes on the largest services but they insist alibaba is the best in the world at fighting the sale of counterfeits. shares in south korea lodging, -- they're searching the company's headquarters in seoul. asy filed a $4.5 billion ipo they are alleging slush funds and embezzlement. shares toer selling raise cash for compensation claims over its potentially lethal products. to caught the has already uploaded -- offloaded most of it shares in its largest customer, honda. subaru, mitsubishi,
and suzuki. that is your bloomberg business flash. campaignin's election in gear last night when the major for party leaders took to the stage for a two-hour debate. unemployment was one of the subjects that acting prime minister mariano rajoy had to addressed. forn 2014, the centers people at harvard he risk was less than the average of the eu and it increased to 7.7 and spain dropped to 6.4, there for the policies of the government even though we still have to continue them have been useful. i want to say the same about low-paying jobs. there are a lot of people are temporary jobs, but 75% of spanish employees have a permanent contract. spaniards will head to the polls on june 26 for the second time in six months after the parties failed to create a coalition that would produce a
coalition in december. then joins us live now from madrid. good to have you with an update on the program this morning. what was striking about the debate yesterday? there were two things going on. on the one hand you have rajoy, a man who looks increasingly out of time. he struggles with the televi sion age. on the other side you have these three new leaders all jostling for position ahead of the election. and really ahead of the negotiations that will be taking place after the election trying to move themselves into position to be the one who can push out rajoy. he suffered the same old attacks tax about his integrity, about links to a whole stream of corruption. he did not have an answer to that just getting increasingly
angrier at the personal attacks. meanwhile, you had pablo trying to back the socialist into a corner to kind of force them to acknowledge the possibility of a progressive majority after the election. the difference there is three months ago, iglesias was offering support for a coalition government and now the polls suggest that podemos could be ahead of the socialists with the indication that maybe iglesias will expect the socialists to -- support his candidacy for prime minister after the election. sills from the dread. -- from madrid. manus: let's talk about the fed. they will likely hold off raising the interest rate at the meeting's kicking off today. they should expect the june statement to reflect "eager yet cautious" commitment and the
slow growth and employment raising alarm bells. is still with us in the london studio. this is a fine line. if the nonfarm payroll number from last week was a one-off for the beginning of a bigger slowdown. mouhammed: i think you hit the nail on the head, 38 house and and8,000 sent shockwaves potential for rate hike in the june meeting has pretty much gone off the table. reserve, as it always has stated, will be data-dependent and wait for further confirmation that the economy is actually in a good place before it moves. they will always err on the side of caution in the current environment. , we've beenmed
talking about when the fed will follow-up up on the rate hike. they took rates so low. one thing i thought was interesting and one of my colleagues at "bloomberg view" drew my atteion to this that the probability of a cut has started to feature -- we're talking about a 2% chance -- out into the future. afterly, the conversation the jobs report has changed a little bit around the fed. mouhammed: without a doubt. the monetary path has been more of a spread. you see inflation and growth, so they start to hike rates. they have to take their time because the backdrop is quite willenging and there always be fluctuations between rate rises in rate cuts given the aging demographics and the challenges in the global economy.
manus: there's a great debate that we are seeing a flattening of yield curves and there is the potential. i know it is in a different place than what we look at bond yield curves, but what is the risk of recession in the u.s.? mouhammed: the risk of recession is higher than markets are currently pricing in. the reason is there's an environment or complacency around the u.s. growing, that is robust. attends to prevail on the back of some stronger data. the risk of recession, the u.s. has not had a recession for tells usrs and history they happen more often than not. looking at it from that perspective alone, you can see some challenges. , thank you for
manus: a boost for boris. minister tellsme bloomberg exclusively that brexit won't happen. >> all my knowledge of the u.k. is that, at the end, people will say it is important to stay part of that strong, common market. stocks claw back there earlier losses as the msci prepares to decide on whether to include chinese shares to its global benchmark. and microsoft's push to the cloud could create stormy weather for the tech firms. moody's says it could cut their
rating following the purchase of linkedin. welcome to "countdown," i'm manus cranny. anna: 7:00 in the morning here in london. let's get straight to the futures. calm ineen relative equity markets up until yesterday, when we saw a lot coming through on european equity markets. it seems as if we will be weaker again, but not by such large margins, at least at the start of the trading day. 1% as weround 4/10 of get ready for the equity session. still an hour off, but the
currency markets and other markets of the trading overnight. manus: yeah. let's check in -- a little bit of gold, sterling-yen. top of the board's cable, down 7/10 of 1%. could it be the boosting of sterling out of the erm? sterling-yen on the other hand has volatility at 2008 levels, the strong as level against the pound since 2014. gold, we are just off those four week has. there is money going into gold. nymex crude down 9/10 of 1%. we are significantly sub that big psychological break point, which was $50, but it is all about the bond market, and you have got the board treasury volatility which is rocking it out. anna: it's interesting to look
at the bond markets in the context of nervousness around brexit. look at what's happening of the kohl'coal space. fairly unchanged on the german 10 year, but looking at my function, i can see there is a negative move in the yield. 0.02% yield on the 10 year over in germany. i am wondering how long it takes to that turn more negative. will we be negative at 10 year as well? let's get the first word with has haslinda amin. linda: britain appears to be on course to exit the european with four pulls from three
companies putting the leave campaign ahead of remain. the uk's biggest selling newspaper has backed a brexit on its front page. guesser they saw a day of intense volatility as the pounds swung between losses and gains. pristine credit rating may be cut by moody's in the wake of its $26.2 billion purchase of linkedin. they made the announcement hours after the technology giant said it plans to sign the takeover with debt. it is the most expensive risk so far in satya nadella's post to remake the company. barack obama says the orlando nightclub -- anna: a slight problem with has haslinda amin. let's get an update on what's happening in life market. david ingles is standing by; we
are seeing concerns about brexit taking their toll on equity markets. david: right. i think the headline on bloomberg.com is battered by brexit. i think it sums up what has been happening. i will get to the equity markets in a moment but we are still looking at losses tuesday. momentum seems to have leveled off -- not a lot, but we are getting there. let me start things off with the bond markets. we were talking about fields in casesy, so in japan it that we are below zero from a three-month low all the way up until the 15 year. what happened on tuesday, it so weo a record low point are still a little bit above zero with some way to go, but who knows.
investors are really searching for yields, pulling everything nowr we are just above 2% for the australia 10 year bond deal. of thisa symptom undercurrent of risk aversion. -- youy mixed picture witha bit of a bright spot the various measures of volatility that we are seeing right now, continuing and that tells you that we are seeing the same sort of magnitude of loss that we see on monday. getre still seeing people downside protection, so if you look at the price for some of these markets, talking about the record about of short, that shows you that investors can't be beyond the short-term and the
reason why we are seeing losses for the fourth straight day. manus: thank you. david ingles, you are right. sometimes we are very short-term ist. the prime minister of the netherlands has warned the u.k. against leaving, speaking exclusively to bloomberg. he says it would harm britain's status as a global financial center and proved to be economically damaging. >> think there is such a strong case for the u.k. to remain as a member of of the european union and to remain part of the single market. geopolitically, politically, economically. in many aspects, we really want you to stay. anna: mark rutte. the brexit campaign boris johnson said the pro-european care business judging the british people. >> the remain campaign say that
they are only saying that we can to do it on our own. i think, and i hope you agree, that they are woefully underestimating this country and woefully underestimating the duty of the british people. anna: let's bring our next guest into the conversation, the head of global equities at henderson global investors. have your insights into this referendum debate -- i have a s notof "the sun" -- this i 1992. do newspapers still have quite a hold over the voting public? what kind of impact would this have, or the latest polls have? >> students of history will remember when the sun was very detrimental, helping john major and that famous too close to call election. to some degree we will remember that and be aware of the
influence that it used to have on the british electorate. as an investor, the thing that has concerned me is how large the amount of undecideds there are. is it enough to make a big difference over eight remain or leave vote? it's clearly very important -- it shows the odds of a brexit, as measured by markets now rising considerably. anna: this has just got off in the last hour -- we talked about this an hour ago when we were at 39% to over 40% in the last hour. >> markets have been pretty efficient, generally, in valuing the likely event that will come ave, upremain or a le until the last two weeks. there is a degree of complacency because the odds state is so
low. there will be an immediate markdown if they plan to leave but i think investors are still not grappling and i'm not sure we can -- what it means longer-term for the u.k. and european equities. grappling with the longer-term is typical. when we were chatting beforehand, we said the only reference point is the decline of sterling back in the 1990's. one thing that strikes my mind -- is that your reference point? volatility in the bond market, rising in british stocks. a relatively, european stocks in u.s. volatility is less than it is here in europe. it's a paradigm. how do you protect your investor's money at the moment? >> i think it is very difficult as a longer-term investor to make a big decision one way or
the other today as markets stand. if you had asked me a week ago, i would have said it was a 50-50 chance. stocks, theat ramifications of the u.k. leave or stay i think stocks are now pricing and a 40% chance of stay and a 60% chance of leave. knows are soon't large it's hard to know where the other without using derivatives, which stock investors can't do. companies you think will be resilient and grow their earnings, regardless of the economic environment, without shying away from the stocks that are very dependent on whether there is a remain or leave vote, and leaving those stocks to the date after the referendum at the end of next week. manus: look, we are trying to
grapple with benchmarks from the political power of persuasion of the murdoch camp, talking about getting richer, getting better off, regaining sovereignty. when you talk to other funds managers, the only reference point we all have an market is sterling, and how that could collapse on the day after. that's the presumed wisdom of the market. talk me through the history. talk me through what you think the benchmarks are for us to refer to. >> here's the thing, we have no benchmarks other than what happened on wednesday. it fell 15% for rallying slightly stop let's recall where we were the day before david cameron announced the speaker referendum. we are at 140, 141 against the dollar.
handful of weeks ago we were in the high one 40's, so we have already had a pretty significant move. course must be how much of that has a pretty happened? how much of that is already in the price? what i know for certain is that there are a lot of companies i view from day to day who have told us clearly that they have been postponing investment in the u.k. pending resolution of this vote. my guess is that as this price is negotiated, if we decide to leave, there will be certain uncertainty that will lead to further postponement of investment decisions. they will be corporate's that will not actively go against the currency market to invest in the u.k. that has got to put downward pressure on sterling. there could be further foes yet to come. anna: stay with us. matthew beasley. we will move on to technology news, because we have had some
over the last 24 hours. top credit rating may be cut in the wake of its $26.2 billion purchase of linkedin. theratings agency made announcement hours after the giant said it plans to fund the takeover with debt. the deal is the most expensive so far in satya nadella's push to remake the company. >> there is a microsoft graph which is about people, their relationships with other people, their calendars and projects. even dynamics are in part of that. you connect that with a professional graph, and then you start completing the scenarios. you don't need to change the social network, but you do need to bring these things together seamlessly. anna: satya nadella. matthew beasley is still with us. what do you make of this kind of deal? do you think this looks
expensive? due technology stocks with expensive? we were comparing it to microsoft's own history -- >> if you look at microsoft's history, it has been checkered. ave.e, quantu they wrote it all off within a year or so. however the logic is there to bring these companies together. you can draw the dots. we see what microsoft is trying to do with its corporate see how -- you can linkedin works. what's fascinating is that microsoft is not using their large cash pile to make this, but instead taking out a loan. it is pretty cheap to borrow money and it's so punitive to bring cash back into the u.s., the taxes they have to pay to make this purchase which is part of the reason we're looking at
tax reform. technology is a sector where if you think about global growth there is still structural growth opportunities and that is what we have been exploiting. manus: wherewith the next global investor trade be? twitter spikes on the back of it, but for you, what do you look for in tech opportunities? in the u.s. are in europe? >> it's everywhere, its global. to some degree with a structural growth, it should be -- while there clearly will be influences of corporate cycles on enterprise and spending, if there are structural markets to which it can be exposed, they should prevail regardless of the economic environment. we have a unique challenge with paypal and sap. companies in the throes
of bottom-up structural growth and will continue regardless of the economic cycle. while that means shares are expensive, there are other options that concentrate around growth and visibility. anna: great to see you, thanks for joining us. matthew beasley. ceo of, we talked to the crest nicholson about his company's half-year results and how he thinks brexit might affect the housing market. ♪
skies to one side for a moment. in the last 30 minutes, first-half revenue of crest nicholson is posted, and says it will deliver one billion pounds of revenue for the year. stephen sloan is the ceo, joining us now. great to see you again. we won't talk about the elephant in the room straight away. we will start out with your numbers. asidepossible to put that and tell us how the business is performing. >> as you can see from the results, very strong operation for the first six months. we are trading very well. providing the man in the street has a job and can get access to mortgage, the housing market should be quite resilient. great operationally. employed, currently probably several thousand to come. those produce great results for us. anna: let's move on to the
elephant. we have been following the odds of a brexit, the probability the average probability based on what people are putting their money on. how are you preparing your business for something that, according to this probability measure, looks increasingly likely? >> as you have seen from the numbers, while we have been doing is growing earnings with a robust balance sheet. effectively when conditions get tougher we have to work a bit harder, and that is what we will do, what we have proven to do. the great thing about the housing market is it's all about can i get access to the market. at the moment, the forecast is showing a slight dip in growth, and that should be given the housing market. manus: stephen, good morning. it's manus. the multipliers are critically
important when it comes to whether i will move for step onto the property ladder. the biggest risk that liquidity could be -- all roads lead back to brexit. it's a worry, isn't it, in terms of what would happen to banking and mortgage liquidity if we voted to leave? the quiddity is very important in the housing market. they keep saying the housing market is about jobs and job creation, but also access to capital. at the moment, homebuyers have strong access to capital. we have low interest rates at the moment, helping to underpin housing growth. the great thing about the market at the moment is that the largest house bills are managing to grow volumes and earnings, and we have quite strong balance sheets with slow levels of debt. could one of those things
that the market might throw at you -- if the pound does cheapen, if we get a vote for that as a base buyersould foreign cash suddenly come into the market and buy more properties than they previously would buy? >> everyone in london gets carried away with the central market and the role the foreign buyers. there is no doubt that the higher price has been underpinned by overseas buyers. that has perhaps disappeared since this that situation. outside of london there are hardly any overseas wires. we may be doing 5%, 10% of and 5%in central london of the higher price levels. you have to work very hard. stephen, it's hard to win
sales, it's hard to get people to go across the threshold, i have been through a couple of send downs in the property market. back in 1982, tony blair said it was what some wanted and today e saying we could be richer, safer, and free at last .o forge our own destiny do you agree? does this kind of messaging help? ismy own personal situation that a reformed eu is in his best position. but that's not new. we have talked about two or three recession since the 1990's. the labor market has always been supported, first by the irish
and the polish plumber. they have always been part of the labor market. the fact that this is often overlooked -- we have a strong relationship with europeans, bathrooms, kitchens, all across europe. there's an easy trading agreement going on. anna: what kind of -40 for your industry if you were to be outside? >> some of the strengths of the u.k. domestic market -- when i was sitting here, u.k. manufactures opened up and said we are producing more bricks now. but there are other areas that clearly take time to build up an internal domestic market. think because we have a strong bank and balance sheet, we will pause for a period and see what the market is doing. anna: stephen stone, ceo of crest nicholson. manus: anna, i will leave us
guy: will come to "on the move." we are counting your down to the european open. i'm alongside matt miller in berlin. here is what we are watching. four polls what the u.k. on course to leave the eu. should we believe the numbers? we're going to ask one of the country's leading experts. britain's biggest selling newspaper, "the sun," backs brexit. is mr. murdock on the right side of history? we will ask theme
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