tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg September 26, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm EDT
are moments away from the closing bell and there is a lot of red inequities today could the dollar is weaker versus the yen. i am scarlet fu. joe: i'm joe weisenthal. tracy: and i'm tracy alloway. joe: the question is, what'd you miss? scarlet: global stocks defined as larger bank leaves -- deutsche bank leads the rout in financials. joe: plus, philip lane joins us ahead and we look at the challenges for ireland's economy. tracy: and one of the most anticipated debates in politics. donald trump and hillary clinton are deadlock in polls ahead of tonight's face-off. scarlet: the tao is falling more than 150 point-- dow is falling more than 150 points. a lot of references to how this could be a game changer.
10 out of 11 major groups in the s&p 500 are down and the big laggards are financials, led by deutsche bank, another record low today. if you look at oil prices, joe and tracy, wti gaining. joe: today felt electric. so much excitement ahead of the debate, the stuff with deutsche bank going on. one of the more exciting news days in a while. tracy: there is definitely a lot going on, isn't there? people are excited about how it will come together. scarlet: within the financial three of the sick supercommittee's decline this group is at its lowest since early august. the exception worth the real estate companies. these were formally part of the financial group and now they are on their own and because of the dividends, especially the 10-year,gaps with a
2.5 percentage points from your seven-year-looking at the vix as well, we are seeing it move higher. shorthand for volatility. it is really the price that people pay for downside protection on the s&p 500. you are seeing it move higher. joe: let's look at government bonds. quickly overseas you see this chart of turkish 10-year bond yields. remember friday after the bell the country was cut to junk -- i think by moody's it was -- and we saw a pretty big rout across the board with stocks getting smashed and 10 year bond yields jumping. lower rates across the board, particularly at the long end. today felt a bit more like a classical risk-off day with people selling stocks and buying treasuries. we talked about the positive correlation between the two. today it means people went to
safety in u.s. government bonds and sold of the thing else. tracy: let's look at currencies because the fireworks we've seen and markets today taken place over there. the pound is weakening against the euro to its weakest levels mid-august thanks to talks that the u.k. could break away from the european union. you also have a survey of business leaders showing that three quarters of ceo's would consider moving their headquarters to operations outside britain. you mentioned turkey. let's look at the lira. also weakening quite significantly. , think it is down about 1.4% off the back of the moody's downgraded, the cut to junk status on friday. joe: quick look at the commodities market, interesting stuff, too, happening. very little chance of a deal to cut our foot in algiers, but comments out of saudi arabia
that in future meetings there could be a cut. corn is falling after better weather conditions are seen as good for going. gold had been earlier but is now down on the day. not much happening in gold. scarlet: although citigroup says that gold could be a big mover if trouble wins the presidency. -- trump wins the presidency. joe: i have to say, the number of notes saying what to do if in theins has grown 10x last week. scarlet: people have collectively woken up. joe: this could happen. scarlet: you could see all the charts using the function on the bottom of your screen. most frequently used for the industry because most assets and liabilities are valued at market value. what you see is that it is currently at 0.07.
the other 17 sectors trade above book value. household goods are the priciest. for financials and banks, 0.66. .7 sinceen stuck below early june. if you look at the five-year chart, what you will see is that 66 you are pretty much where you were in a big chunk of 2012 as well. and not too far from where we sat in 2009. go all the way back here to 2009 and you can see that in early 2000 and it was pretty low, below 0.05. 0.03. deutsche bank is the third cheapest but the 2 banks even cheaper, take a guess. tracy: no idea. scarlet: time banks, of course. --italiancourse
banks, of course. tracy: of course, talking about the deliberate even they, acknowledging the contrary aspect, are not advising people to get in. joe: let's go back to the pace and one of the ways of looking at the risk is implied volatility. the two-month includes the election date. we're not quite one month away. there is a lot more volatility priced in around november 8 and in the near-term future. volatility is rising across the curve. this is a 10-year chart. you can see the steepness of the curve like never before. there is million ways people are looking at volatility from overnight volatility, surging going into tonight's debate. .carlet: volatility smile
joe: volatility smile. you can do them all before the election. clear way of seeing rising trump anxiety. scarlet: what if someone just wanted to trade the peso based on its emerging-market-ness? joe: i think we hit a new all-time low in the peso. i don't have the chart. it is very low. tracy: that will be an interesting chart to revisit tonight. scarlet: there you go. joe: we will see if it breaks 20 tonight. if so, it is a sign of traders thought trump had a good night. tracy: we are talking about oil, now that we have the meeting over in algiers. here is a good chart that illustrates the amount of politics and game theory that is going into the debate over whether or not opec should freeze production. this is u.s. crude production in blue.
what it tells you is that overtime we see a slight every any price of oil, shall producers restart production. the question is, you are opec, if you agreed to freeze prices -- i'm sorry, freeze production and boost prices, whether or not that just allows shale to come back on board in terms of production. a lot of moving parts in those debates. scarlet: you do not want to encourage u.s. producers. they will bring the prices back down. tracy: you don't want to harm yourself and give a gift to your main competitor. joe: this is one of the main their arguments for oil. goldman has made that argument. if you can turn it back on, what will give oil the ultimate lifgt? scarlet: could brexit benefit island in the long run? we have an interview with philip lane. this is bloomberg. ♪
mark: i'm mark crumpton. let's get to "first word" news. hillary clinton leads donald trump by 4 points in a new national poll. according to the one knock monmouthy -- university poll, hillary clinton has 46% compared to 42% for trump. you can watch tonight's debate on bloomberg television beginning at 8:30 p.m. new york time. our coverage will include predebate and postdebate broadcasts markup in, john heilemann, and the bloomberg politics team, and twitter will
lifestream the broadcast. leader mitchty mcconnell has proposed a stopgap senate measure, but many democrats and some republicans say they will oppose it. democrats objected that the bill does not include money to fix water contamination in flint, michigan. in iran, former president mahmoud ahmadinejad has decided against another run for president. this agreement are advised him because he is a polarizing figure -- the supreme leader advising against the run because he is a polarizing figure. he remains a controversy of figure in iran. palmer is of arnold waiting until after the ryder cup this week for a public farewell. the ceremony will be held october 4 in pennsylvania. a family spokesperson says the last thing he would want is for
a golf schedule to be interrupted. the funeral will be later this week. arnold palmer died last night at the age of 87. global news 24 hours a day, by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. scarlet: what you missed? ireland may be a big beneficiary of respite. -- brexit. here to talk about the future of ireland's economy is the central bank -- is philip lane, the central bank governor of ireland . a central seen as location for many firms looking to shift from the u.k. following the brexit vote and when they trigger article 50. do you agree with that thesis? philip: it is always that we have the same line which, same
time zone, already in the international financial sector. many firms are already familiar with doing business out of ireland. we do see this in terms of banks holding discussions in dublin about the future. there has to be some level of relocation, depending on how the negotiations go. it is way too early to tell. i don't think they are in decision-making mode yet. they are essentially doing research. such and such from the types of reforms and renegotiations to happen. time inmoment in december 2016 it is way too early to know for sure how important these moves might be. tracy: in terms of research from have you received inquiries from companies looking to make a move to dublin? bank,: with the central
we are the regulator of investment firms, of banks, and a certain amount of inquiries come to us. vis-à-vis law globalwe are having firms understand dublin versus other occasions. scarlet: does the central bank have the capacity to measure the influx of new firms? philip: it is important to make a distinction between banks and other kinds of firms. responsibilitye for regulation of banks is often frankfurt in partnership with dublin. if you like banks across europe to play exactly the same revelatory field -- regulatory field come and in these other areas we have a lot of business. the business of regulating investment firms, insurance, and someone. of course it is a challenge, but
if new business comes along, we will be able to deal with it. joe: obviously, a key component of the irish economic strength is the low tax rate and the to director companies -- the appeal that has for company's to direct investment ireland. the move seems to be against that type of thing. in the u.s. there is anger about in versions. -- inversions. how concerned are you for the long term of ireland that that will grow in unpopularity and other countries may seek to punish ireland in some way? philip: i think it is important to be chris are clear about the difference in the tax rates -- crystal-clear about the difference in the tech specs. the tax breaks is crystal clear in the setup and the conversation is not really about tax rates. how do global firms allocate
activity, allocate income across different jurisdictions? you can imagine in europe, different opinions about should it be on the basis of production takes place come where sales take place, and so on. this is an ongoing, gradual conversation. but that is different to the issue of tax rates, or at least at this point in time within europe it is accepted that differences in tax rate are part of the setup. tracy: speaking of taxes, you mentioned that as a potential area of concern to the letter you sent to the minister of finance. you also talked about ireland being exposed to another financial shock, given the high levels of public and private debt. that might be surprising to people who do ireland is a great-- view ireland as a great success story compared to the
deepest, darkest days of the crisis. how worried should we be about that shock? philip: when central bank governors worry about the economy, we have to cover all of the angles. there's nothing on the horizon of to say there will be a significant reversal of the economy. but we know that island is a is a smalland economy and we can grow quickly so we are growing quickly now. we have to recognize that there are scenarios where that can go into reverse. i think many people would agree with this -- the rainy day is the day we would have to save for. when the finance minister makes policy, he has to be more be true in a might large economy, which is going to be more study compared to the past-- steady compared to the fast-growing economy. scarlet: although there have been rather large fluctuations in gdp, 26% in one quarter.
philip: it is important to think of that as a one-off balance sheet adjustment. this, if you like, is the result of various corporate restructurings, i believe. we don't really think of that as the growth rate of the economy. this 4%-type number you cited, that is a fairly decent growth rate going on. -- and there is continued progress to be made for ayou said earlier on, genuine recovery there is still a way to go. it has to be carefully looked at. compared to a lot of countries, this is a good scenario. to theeaking of risks system, the big story in europe is the ongoing plunge in deutsche bank shares. the european banking sector is perceived as being weak. lots of concerns about it.
from an ecb perspective, what more must be done to restore, shore up confidence -- philip: ok, let me make 2 points. as central bankers we consider the system in the aggregate. we would make several points. one is, they have gone up in europe compared to 2009, 2010. core capital has increased by seven percentage points. number two is the ecb policy is a big lever at the moment. although there is some controversy, some side effects --m low interest rates, if the european situation would be worse. as we repeatedly say and i think mario draghi said on friday, islier last week, europe an overbanked situation.
there are structural problems. european banks in general have to consider what kind of reforms they need to do, what kind of business model annotation is necessary. i think the mixture of at one level, is the european economy recovers, banks will recover with that. make sure the european economy recovers. on top of that, there is, if you like, a reform challenge which is primarily for the bank management and investors. scarlet: when it comes to monetary policy, we are curious what you think about what the bank of japan is doing. it is certainly intriguing, if not necessarily new. difficult to implement something like that in europe but would you rule it out? philip: i think it is fair to say that all the major central of course we would like
a great interest in how that unfolds. the common element is the commitment to return in place with targets. he is honestly super committed and coming up with different ways to communicate that commitment. in europe we consider the strategy to be working. there has been over the past two years since quantitative easing took hold in 2014 a significant recovery in european economy. we need to continue with that strategy. brexit, whichk to we were talking about in the very beginning, ireland is a major trading partner with the u.k. brexit,ears of a hard u.k. leaving the eu without any sort of deal in place. the perception is that ireland has been one of the more conciliatory eu members in terms of finding middle ground. are you optimistic?
do you think there's a chance that some kind of middle ground could be found that is not all the way to the heart brexit? philip: there is different levels to that. the u.k. has to decide what it is asking for. in the eu has to respond to that request -- then the eu has to respond to that request. and then in the negotiations, of would, i think ireland share with many the philosophy that having a win-win trading situation with the u.k. is good for everyone. of course, it is enforcement situationhe special for the republic of island. joe: philip lane, irish central bank governor, thank you for coming on. scarlet: coming up, the chart that you can't miss. this is bloomberg. ♪
scarlet: i am scarlet fu. what'd you miss? bears reemerging in a big way in treasuries. they have turned out right bearish on treasury bond futures hedge funds and other large speculators, net short. this is the first time it has happened going all the way to february. gotourse, we know the bears burned last week after they reduced protection for the future path of rate hikes at that -- and that sent yields lower. joe: so the yields actually fell-- scarlet: can't get the timing
right. of: i'm looking at a chart metals and mining stocks. etfmple ratio, the mining relative to the spdr, s&p 500. metals and mining stocks are underperforming. what is starting to see signs of a breakout, the trendline, could be significant. the index has hit it a couple of times and is hovering around there right now. keep an eye on this chart. 3796. watch it every day to see if it breaks out. a be the commodity comeback -- maybe the commodity comeback story has further to go. scarlet: it has been holding for quite a while now. coming up, morgan stanley chief equity strategist adam parker joins us. this is bloomberg. ♪
mark: let's get first word news. hillary clinton and donald trump square off tonight in the first of the presidential debates. in a new bloomberg politics national survey, they are tied in a two-way race. the poll as the candidates each with 46% of the vote. when third-party candidates are included, trump leads. tonight'spredictions debate at popular university in new york could be the most watched presidential debate ever. you can see it all here on bloomberg tv at 8:30 p.m. new york time. it will include 30 minute pre-and post debate shows.
plus, twitter will livestream the bloomberg broadcast. next week, it will be the vice presidential candidates' turn. mike pence and tim kaine will debate on october 4 at longwood university. pence says he is holding mock sessions with scott walker. he's also saying he is doing some studying and plans to take the weekend off from campaigning to prepare. no word yet on kaine's debate prep. taiwan is shutting down financial markets and offices as the typhoon approaches. schools and government offices will also be closed. airlines across southern china have canceled or rerouted flights. it is expect it to make landfall on tuesday. ania's foreign minister said internationally brokered cease-fire is hopeful. more than 200 civilians have been killed after a week of intensive airstrikes.
john kerry says the syrian and russian government both seem intent in taking aleppo and destroying it in the process. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. joe, back to you. joe: we have breaking news. perry capital is closing its flagship fund after nearly three decades. one of the biggest name in hedge funds calling it quicks. richard parry, we will talk about that more. for a quick rap of the market basically selling off across the board ahead of tonight's debate, down 166 on the dow. .9% on the nasdaq. scarlet: today was a risk off day on the face of the uncertainty from the debate. we have a lot of analysts talking about the outcome of the
debate, what it means for markets. a lot of people warning investors they have to hedge more ahead of a potential trump presidency. joe: it seemed like a possible tail risk and it should not be treated that way was a common theme today. selling pretty much across the board today. scarlet? scarlet: thank you. nike is facing competition from all sides, including its traditional rival adidas, under armour and skechers and hundreds of brands like lululemon. with nike set to report earnings, let's dig into the giant in today's the numbers do not lie. the first six months were not kind to nike stocks which declined 11%. that is the largest first half decline in 15 years. wall street has faith. of the 33 analysts, none have a sell rating. one factor behind the weakness is that the client in north
america futures orders which tracks the amount of goods which is several months in advance of delivery. last quarter was the worst futures order in north america since 2010. futures orders grew to 6%. north america is the laggard for liknike. china remains the biggest driver. the company says sales will grow at a high single-digit percentage. this assertion has helped restore investor confidence. over the summer, nike set it is dropping its worst-performing business, golf equipment. 706 million8% to $ last fiscal year as participation rates declined and tiger woods has seen his start date -- star fad. e. they are looking on details on how the hang seng shipping is
impacting. nike will be reporting orders after tuesday's u.s. closing bell. joe: breaking news. perry capital announcing it will close its main hedge fund after nearly three decades. founder richard perry w rote -- " although i believe in this team, this market environment has not worked well for us." our reporter who broke the story. we have seen this longtime hedge -- hedge funds not able to cut it in this environment. is this the same pattern we have seen for a while? >> it is unusual to see one this day throwing in the towel. we have seen a lot of restructuring in other ones. cutting certain teams, shuffling things around. in terms of actually calling it
quits like this is quite a big one. it was not a run on the fund so to speak. it is not like there were no other options here. to close. it is clear he made a decision this was the best thing for him and his employees at this time and his investors to kind of unwind the main fund. tracy: it is difficult to overstate his influence in the industry. he was a protege of robert rubin. how heavily will this way on other hedge funds and could we potentially see market impacts from things like liquidation? katia: they happen liquidating most of their positions so far. they plan on returning a substantial amount of money back to investors next month. they are making this an
announcement that it usually weighs on your public assets. they had less liquid positions, like their positions in fannie and freddie mac. they are involved in a lawsuit there. they don't plan on liquid ating those yet. they want to see those through and make the best return for those investors. they will manage this professionally. joe: all right, thank you for coming on with the big news in the hedge fund world. scarlet: adam parker is here. we will talk about market action ahead of the big presidential debate tonight. this is bloomberg. ♪
scarlet: analysts cannot agree if a trump residency will have a global recession or cause the global economy to kick off. morgan stanley says markets are underprepared and investors should stop trading it like an outside risk. joining us is adam parker. adam, would you agree that investors need to better prepare for a potential tur victor -- trump victory? adam: i really don't know. maybe people think a trump victory was upright in at all. i think it is hard to call. i remember conversations with investors in 2012 saying that if romney wins, it would be great for the market. if obama wins, it is a disaster. 2013 was probably the single best year.
it is hard to call. i think a lot of people would say it would be bad if he wins in the near term for the market, but i think it is difficult to call. we try to be very neutral to handle any volatility. joe: you are an equity strategist. in any other category, it would be a clear sign. the most obvious everyone talks about is the peso. are there areas within equity markets you are looking at that you would expect to be particularly sensitive to the rest of it going one way or another? who: the bond strategist pushed morgan stanley -- there are other asset classes. the area people focus on is the financial sector, defense, materialsconstruction related to fiscal stimulus.
a lot of people can speculate on what could happen. i think our firm believes if turmrump wins that there would e a correlation that the senate goes republican also which would make it easier to make things approved. i think it is hard to call, to be honest, so a have not tried to position the portfolio for one or the other. call within health care is prefers biotechnology to pharma shares. hillary clinton has moved stocks in pharma with her comments about how they should be more government oversight. how do you put that into your more fundamental outlook? adam: i think it is a buy. why? it trades this a multiple's as pharma despite way faster growth. they have the same approval rating for new drugs as pharma but laess of a pipeline.
if you have pressure under a new regime, it hurts pharma earnings more than biotech. you don't like that health care sector at all, i think biotech makes more sense than software. have similar growth rates. i think biotech is one of the missed areas in the market. it is priced in. t e casuals will not be heavily impacted. if people want to wait until after the election, that is fine. potential lot of m&a and growth. joe: where would it be? have been vocal about the influence of central banks in the stock market. as we go into the election, does political risk take a front seat when it comes to the markets and less about banks? adam: three things everybody is talking about all day long are probably bank of japan, the fed and the election.
if you ask me what are the risks? i think there are things we are not all over that make me worried. not that those things are priced in, but people are talking about them all day. i would say one, the risk would be china. in january, everybody was talking about china devaluing. two, if you look back in january and february, we were talking about the potential for u.s. consumer recession. zero people think there would be u.s. consumer recession. relative to the chatter which is all about the boj and the election, china and consumer are not in the price. i don't know what the fed can do. either zero or one in the next months do not really matter to me. i'm trying to stop carrying -- wearing about it and focusing on where we could be surprised to the downside. joe: is there anything you are seeing consumer wise that lead you to believe that things may
not be as healthy? adam: no, i think the consumer is in good shape. i just think the risk relative to what people are talking about -- i think there is no doubt the u.s. economy softened a little bit in the last six to seven weeks against the prior period. i think it is not in the price. ultimately, we have some numbers we could measure that with consumer spending, etc. what we pay attention a lot to his the credit card data. charge-offs, signs that they are not growing as rapidly. if that it's a soft patch, i think that is a reason to be more cautious relative to what people are talking about. of course, we will have people focus on the fed, but i think that is more trotted over than the china or consumer stuff right now. scarlet: adam parker is staying with us because coming up, we dig deeper into the correlation of gender diversity and low
scarlet: what you miss? matter?der diversity morgan stanley says yes. it has delivered risk returns than the rest of the past few months. adam parker is still with us for today's walk the talk where we look at the pressure points of social change and where it is outpacing corporate america's ability to adapt. there is a pressure of correlation versus causation. does gender diverse city at a company called it to have better returns or is it coincidence? adam: i think some companies are starting to the verse from the
beginning and that could help. a lot of people would agree diversity is a positive. ont we did -- i have been the staff for 18 years and we publish twice a week. i would say you do that math, this is one of the best report i have been involved in. i'm product the work we do. we have done two things -- we defined gender diversity. it is pay parity, empowerment, representation across all rex, diversity programs. the reason we look at multiple variables is there are boards in europe but they don't have any improvement on pay parity. in japan, great maternity benefits but zero suites. there are multiple variables. we rank ordered 1600 global companies on their gender diversity. it was a very powerful result. it takes it from a nice to have
two almost in investment decision, a superior asset class. scarlet: i like the fact you call it a superior asset class. is there money benchmarked? adam: the plans are pretty grandiose in terms of product. let me give you the key result. we rank stocks every night on a number of financial attributes. are they beating estimates? improving cash flow? are they cheap? all the things you would be familiar with. we rank the stocks on those metrics on a daily basis globally. at whatok at the stocks the point model likes. let's cut them into gender diverse and not diverse and observe their behavior. we were surprised how powerful the results were. the ones that were gender diverse not only had better returns over the last five years and few months, but they had far less volatility. more accounting problems, more
volatility in the non-diverse companies. that says i'm not going to buy the ones i normally like, bible resource them -- i will resort them. scarlet: you talked about how there is incredible response from customers. are you marketing this to customers. if so, what kind of customers? adam: it is those that want to create product, those who have huge environmental, social and government funds and race access -- raise access there. in washington -- in u.s., we talked about in our research, it has a very weak policy. the weakest among any major country in the world. guinea is in the same
category with not strong policies. basically making more money. i think it is pretty far-reaching. i think a number of corporate's we saw as well. it is quite impactful work. scarlet: everybody is looking for some kind of edge. adam parker, thank you for joining us, the former chief equity strategist. tracy: hillary clinton and donald trump will take the stage tonight for the highly anticipated first debate at hofstra university. joining us now is margaret callas. interest in this debate is clearly at a fever pitch. everybody is talking about what the candidates need to do in order to win. when you watch the debate tonight, what will you be looking at in order to declare victory? margaret: we will be looking at a couple of things. on a superficial level, do user of them lose their cool? the onus will be different on donald trump.
he will be pressed to give substantive answers on policy questions. clinton, the question will be can she present herself in a way that warms the hearts of not just some of the voters that she never has quite won over like but women millennials, voters and ensuring minority turnout. may have different audiences. the different question is can they avoid losing their cool and possessed themselves in a way that goes beyond their bases and a really important pivotal group of undecided voters that remain? joe: reading a lot of the punditry, you would think the bar for donald trump to declare to win is low. he has to show up, not let his hair get out of place. he has been essentially tied in the polls, if not leading in
some polls. the voters seem to take them very seriously by this point. is the bar really that low for him? margaret: that is a fascinating question. we will not know until a couple of days after this debate. the most recent bloomberg poll shows the double standard for many more of those polled thinking that she will emerge as the winner or in a stronger position tonight and donald trump. baked indicate is the idea that he has this bar to clear because people think he is the underdog. with the clinton campaign, they really don't think that is right. they think he has a higher bar to clear but it is not up to the clinton campaign, it is up to how everyday voters feel. we are expecting pensively historic -- potentially historic eyeballs on this debate. the record was reagan-carter, 81 million.
we are looking at potentially 100 million watching this on tv and streaming and social media. who those viewers are has a lot to do with who will be perceived the winner. scarlet: how important is this first debate? there will be two others in october, but if this debate really cements one winner or loser than the others do not matter as much? what has been the case historically? margaret: president obama in 2012 with the debate with romney did a horrible job. his team knew it. he did managed to turn it around but he set himself back a little bit. you could argue both ways whether that is good or bad but you don't want to be in that position coming out of the debate. to the extent there is a role model, hillary clinton is more of the incumbent posture in terms of years of experience and
which party she is representing. the idea that she t would be carrying a third obama term. the idea is for her not to choke tonight. the polls are so close. what we thought a couple of weeks ago was she has a buffer of several points is not true anymore looking at these polls nationally and the battleground states. if he does well tonight, he may be less interested in what happens in the weeks to come. tracy: margaret, thank you so much. bloomberg television will have complete coverage of the debate beginning at 8:30 p.m. tune in after for a full analysis with john heilemann and mark halperin. this is bloomberg. ♪