tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg October 12, 2016 12:00pm-3:31pm EDT
>> covering stories from tokyo. u.s. stocks are seeking direction ahead of the federal reserve minute. real estate and utility among the gainers while energy is lagging. the meeting minutes are due in two hours time. bank earnings kickoff and earnings on friday with j.p. morgan chase and wells fargo. we are joined with the numbers you need to watch out for. halfway into the trading day, abigail doolittle joins us with what we have been seeing so far. >> halfway through the trading day, we have stocks doing very little, fluctuating between small gains and losses.
on the week, a different story. we have the three major averages on pace for the second weekly decline in a row. this has taken a toll on the s&p 500. this is a one-year chart of the s&p 500. this highlights two factors. the s&p 500 below the 100 day moving average for the first time since brett that. that tells a little bit about the severity of the recent the line. we have a triangle of congestion that tech uncle analyst have been talking about. it has started to break to the downside. it's the s&p 500 falls below 2041, it may suggest more downside is ahead. as for the individual movers,
decliners among the insurance carriers. humana shares are low work. on pace for the worst day in three months after the medicare ratings declined. the percentage of members down to 37% from 78 percent a year ago. this is dragging on sick not end at not. when we look at other movers, family, black & decker. there has been a reversal. both stocks had been earlier -- hire earlier. now down the work. apparently now investors like the possibility. we take a look at crude. crude is down for a second day in a row. today's decline appears to be pretty dramatic. there is a 5 billion barrel discrepancy in output figures. something that has really helped
crew tremendously. it is up 96% from its low. of 30 percent on pace for the rest -- best year since 2009. shares are higher for the second day in a row. raising the ratings to positive from negative. panel checks are showing better demand for the iphone 7. apple has added an amazing $140 billion in market cap. vonnie: thank you. checking in on bloomberg first word news. mark: hillary clinton leads donald trump in the battleground state of ohio. the latest survey of likely voters has secretary clinton with 43%. mr. trump with 34%. the poll conducted after the
release of the 2005 video in which trump is heard discussing women in full girt terms. wikileaks has released almost 1200 more e-mails it said were hacked from the personal account of clinton campaign manager. the disclosures in the final month have outraged democrats who blamed russian state hackers. working to help donald trump. investigators say he is fully cooperating. a federal judge has six and it voter registration in florida because of hurricane matthew. people now have until up over 18 to register. at first the judge granted only of one day next tension. eric and coal is heading towards bermuda as a category two storm.
the national hurricane center has had some strengthening is possible. global news powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 100 countries. this is bloomberg. back to you. >> bank earnings kickoff friday. next week we hear from bank of america merrill lynch, goldman sachs, and work in a man's wealth. brexit concern top the minds of analyst. the new focus shrinking revenue and increase the negation cost. the president and ceo of kbw. let me start with wells fargo. so much news about the bank. i think investors will be looking to john stumpf to hear
what he has to say and how that may affect earnings going or work. what can he say? >> i am not sure if you will hear very much. that is something that is very important. when there is a very strong message he has, it will be that -- set up to be delivered very specifically. >> more broadly, this is potentially the season it turns around. this could be the quarter we see some improvements. what do you anticipate more generally? >> we are anticipating a very solid quarter. think straight at a discount to the overall market. a lot of talk that this will be the sixth consecutive quarter for the s&p 500 companies seeing negative. when you look at the 200 things
we follow, we've never had a down quarter. very quietly it has been a steady performance. we are expecting that right now. the brexit conversations were earlier in the year. the first quarter was very volatile. we have seen a couple of recent decisions from the regulators that has been more gentle on the inventory. the government -- governor gave a speech that was very positive. then i think there will be a lot of talk about potential changes for interest rates. i think it will be a steady and positive order. david: you cannot get a more macro conversations than was happening at the world bank asked week. a lot of talk about deutsche bank. you have ceo meeting with folks from the justice department tried to figure out a
settlement. the talks reportedly ongoing. i wonder how you see that playing out? ask a different situation in europe. i think they have raised capital to a much higher degree much sooner. i also think the other big difference is negative interest rates. increased regulatory headwind. the hold the russian about what this fine may be brings into talk about capital added to see. i think the big discussion is what has negative interest rates done to the big banks in europe? when are in a list looks out beyond 2020, we think it will be hard to make money in that market if you have negative interest rate. secretary summers came out with a thought to save profitability is the issue with some of these banks. >> even for the u.s. banks, you
say there will not be as much commentary. why should that be the case this quarter? >> exit still is an issue. i was thinking more about the degree of it. we have the big global things in the country. the big eight thanks. when you get beyond that to the regional banking market, that is not as a given issue. there is a very positive move -- momentum story. we think it will be 8% earnings per share. so i think it is a question about which banks you are talking about with regard to the macro issues. >> when you look at the prospects for m&a going forward, is that a space where you would see more of it. >> we have 25% you are banks
today than in 2009. that is how quickly this industry is consolidating. roughly 3% to 4% has been consolidating. it is happening more in the midsize bank area. we think it will be continued healthy environment for us. vonnie: cato is happens, some banks go out of business in some merge. >> i think it is good for shareholders. for as they industry for banks to become more profitable. well i was earlier speaking about a relative performance business, this is still a very hard and challenging environment. a flatter yield curve than we have had previously. low interest rates. but -- credit quality has become
benign. >> the comparison will be good relative to last year because it was a very difficult order. we think there is a chance for a modest surprise. from a historic perspective, not an easy environment. we have had this with on the committee at the last meeting in september. what are you going to look for in the minutes, and what are your -- your expectations? >> the market has a greater than 50% probability that they think rates will be increased. when you look at this from a big perspective, the fed is reacting to an economy that is positive
momentum and ok. can it absorb taking away emergency measures? we have only had one rate increase since the death of the last recession. i think it is a sign of health the fed it feels comfortable enough that they can raise rates. the fed has been lowering the bar to raise rates. that is what we will see in the minutes probably. vonnie: i have to talk about bonuses. what do you intend to pay? >> i think there will be tremendous pressure on compensation in the baking industry. tremendous pressure all around. that includes personnel cost. i think there will be a lot of pressure on headcount. i think there will be a lot of continued pressure on compensation on wall street. david: how about the pressure of this campaign gekko so much talk
about wall street and banking. will that have any affect on earnings or the health of the banks going forward. >> what i am watching most is the is what happens to the congress and the senate. there are very credible reform bills in front of congress that have not been moving until after the election. my own feeling is the pendulum -- pendulum has swung very hard and there could be common sense adjustments. i thought the fed actions a couple of weeks ago were very good where they took away the test for qualitative stress test . so i am watching the congressional races most closely. david: great to speak with you, president and ceo of kbw. vonnie: oil is falling for the second day. we will eat with the oppenheimer -- oppenheimer senior energy
vonnie: this is bloomberg "markets." i am vonnie quinn. david: oil is continuing the second day of the klein on speculation the ability to trim crude out will not help supply. senior energy strategist must -- strategist at oppenheimer echoes that fear. he spoke with us earlier today. >> we have to rely so far nothing has happened. it is all talk but no action. the market needs to see concrete
steps. the markets will ballots. the question is not if but when. the reason being supply will continue to decline. we have been starting capital spending over the past two years. one more year of the same low level of capital spending will accelerate the decline, as well as delay or cancel any future project. we do not have enough money to put any investment. the market question is not if but when. this will basically cut production. forget about the problem. we need to cut production. if we cut it meaningfully, at least 2%, we will see a response and see oil prices going higher. oil prices will have to reach sustainable level, which i
believe will have to be above $50 to allow this to continue. so global demand continues to increase. so therefore the will be done. the question will be when? >> in the past, when opec has been defective, it is because they are driven it. they have a lot of incentives to get the price up. do they still have the wherewithal, the power and influence to drive a deal here? >> they produce more oil than anybody else of a export more oil than anybody else. having said that, this will bring this from the share producer. this is the price opec is targeting to be the bottom of the range. if they go there and stay there,
we will see a activity coming in. this will come into play. we can add half $1 million within 3-6 months. this will show any production drop opec might do. it is a two-way street. it is not clear-cut how it will play out. there is no western my mind saudi arabia cannot survive a $50 oil. you need five or six times the multiple in order for them to survive economically. >> i want to pick up that the market is tight. we take a look at the bloomberg. the white line versus the blue line, which is brent price. timeline what prices are today versus 12 months. the higher it goes, the tighter
the supply gets. strip out a cut or not, what is the fundamental picture like? >> x percent normal field the klein for any company across the industry. we are talking about millions of dollars will have to be in place every year in order for us to maintain production. we are talking about spending hundreds of billions of dollars every year to keep production flat not grow. demand has grown 1.5 million barrels per day. eventually the supply demand will cross. it is only a matter of time. david: senior energy strategist. vonnie: donald is holding a rally in florida right now. how he is pressing forward with
vonnie: you are watching bloomberg "markets." i am vonnie quinn. david: donald trump holding to events in florida as he loses ground with gop party leaders. yesterday at a rally in panama city heat declared himself unshackled from disloyal republicans from paul ryan and john mccain. i caught a bit of the interview donald trump did last night with bill o'reilly. he criticized the media. seems to be a new thing he is hammering on now. is this open warfare within the party? >> it is somewhere in
between. i think the republican party and a lot of people made this gambit that they saw trump as vulnerable. there was question that after everything he said whether this would be the thing that finally undid him. you sell people take a chance and move and try to put pressure on him or his running mate to do the same and possibly drop out of the race. trump has made it totally clear he is fighting and doubling down on the tactics and upping the ante on the aggression toward clinton and the party. now what you are seeing is some people have walked back the distant -- the reimbursement. many people like paul ryan who are in the middle ground and not sure what to do.
i would say less open warfare in more like confusion about how to engage in this age of politics. vonnie: what about the latest polls? i believe we have one from ohio that shows a 10 point advantage for hillary clinton. this does not account for more recent things like the debate. >> what we're seeing, and it is a little early to tell. a lot of it is visceral reaction to the news -- to the news we heard over the weekend. people are still reacting to the video of trump. i think we will have to see over the neck week or two whether or not that remains or the race tightens backup. at the moment it seems like they are really having an effect. we will have to see if that plays out.
let's we are one talk about wikileaks and the role of the clinton campaign. >> a lot of the stuff we are seeing is inside based all things. they would be concerning to campaign and you would see the tightening in the race. because the polls we just discussed, they feel like it is ok to sit back. they denounced them all. they feel ok doing that because they feel like compared to what trump is up against, they're really not going to move a needle. vonnie: coming up, taking a look at sterling's bounce. this is bloomberg. ♪
philippine president has ordered his defense chief to strap preparations for joint at her sizes with the u.s. military next year. the controversial leader says he is trying to chart of foreign policy that is not dependent on washington. meantime, an eight day global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 26 hundred journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. vonnie: a quick check on u.s. stocks now. see it just a little pickup.
18,000 to 100 -- 18,170. up a quarter of a percentage point. not much movement. and underneath the surface, a lot going on. heading down to courtney call into his life. quite the nasdaq bouncing between gains and losses today. this comes after yesterday the nasdaq have the worst decline in a month. on pays from the second weekly decline. first up, apple. it is up for a seventh straight day. it is having the best winning streak since february 2015. in the past seven days i have added -- it has added 27 billion to the market cap.
it is moving higher because samsung is ending production of the galaxy notes of an smartphone. today samsung said it was cutting operating profit by $2.3 billion in the third quarter. another stock giving higher, amazon up about .6% by 24% year to date. this comes after today they announced they are proposing a standalone music streaming service. that would cost prime member $7.99 per month, which would undercut the rival spotify and apple in price. also, the amazon price target raised to $1000. moving a long, also up 10% today. shareholders will vote on the proposed merger.
this merger was agreed to back in july. it has been opposed by tesla shareholders who are concerned about solar city debt and rate of cash burn and could be an unnecessary distraction. that is what is happening at the nasdaq market. >> courtney collins, live from the nasdaq. asking a former fx trader and currency analyst for bloomberg first word. >> the x dictation that will continue. >> the feeling is the minutes will reveal the dissenters may have had a bit more allies shall we say and some of the folks that voted to hold were closer
to where the dissenters opinions were then not. if they get the indication, the market will likely react to a higher dollar. vonnie: why? it is not going to change much. why wouldn't move the dollar higher. >> when the fed raised rates last december, the dollar went up in the short-term. it fell for nine months straight. very likely to fall this same pattern. monetary policy divergence. the market will digest whether this is one and done. then the dollar will fall. >> two big stories. the strengthening dollar and the strengthening sterling. a respite for her majesty. >> the issue is what most traders and analysts are feeling, a temporary blip, that
her going to parliament is essentially looking for parliamentary backing, which in the long run looks like it will be a heartbreak anyway. the government getting support from her party and likely to vote her way just to get the support of the country behind her. vonnie: it was the outlier at 110. then calling 105. the majority were still weigh about 120. what is that now? >> most people looking for 117, 118 level. this is not all that far away. it is achievable. >> you brought along a chart. walk us through this if you would.
>> the blue line is basically the average closing price of the past 12 months. you can see the sterling is now headed toward third standard deviation, which is a really good move. this comes in at 118 give or take. >> thank you very much. vonnie: as we just mentioned, the pound decline comes among the exit plan. as the sticking point, bloomberg surveillance asked the former head of the european parliament economic and monetary of tears committee. >> i am always a little bit skeptical. wait until we see it. this actually makes political sense for her because she is in
more danger. certainly a vote in the beginning she can say what the objections are. they will obviously change during the course of negotiations. >> the interpretation of the financial markets is that this will lead to a softer brexit. is that what you are sort of telling me? likely to be a softer brexit, maybe possibly including single market access. >> access is there. it is just what you have to do to get it. the question of whether you can have something that is better the united states and everybody else gets, which is what we really want because we have been closer and have had an weston access.
the so-called passporting. what can replace that? without the eu, there is no passport. i think i'm important question will be around the customs union. is there something where we can be and that and still be in free trade agreement? that is a negotiating point. not something we can do hate. >> help me with the british parliament. most of the knowledge was defined by judy dench in three movies about the united kingdom that we watch and think we have an image of parliament. how will labor and the conservatives go at it as they try to get the power or the debates or the discussion away from the prime minister? >> they will have a debate, and then they will say what the
advantages and disadvantages are of trying to day in the market or customs union and push negotiating position has already been expressed. there will be a resolution put forward. it is not yet clear to me because i have not gotten into parliament today whether this is him think that would go through the house in a normal way, or whether it would just read the comments. the argument this is being used in an area where the prerogative has been exercised in the past has always gone to a vote in the house of commons in recent times . this being the biggest thing that faces the united kingdom in many years. why should that not go to the floor of the house of commons to
get approval? >> maybe the royal prerogative is what we need in the house of commons. if i look at sterling, this is the sterling chart. our politicians blind to the evaluation of the current policy? what an abrupt move down. are people like you blind to sterling movement? >> no, i think politicians dependent on which side of the argument you come from use it to say this shows a hard brexit is not a good thing, and we need to do something that is gentler on having more immigrants, gentler were softer in terms of our relationship with the eu but those that want to take the hardline say the devaluation helps exports.
at the moment you will find the bank of england is not duly radel by where it has gotten so far. this does recent point -- reach a point where everyone starts to be worried. at the moment, some on one side and some on the other. we are at the kind of level suite bench down to at the time of the financial crisis. this does not provide as much of a boost to export that would have been the case if we sold a lot of manufacturing goods. the currency is of less significance there than what we are selling. >> you have your ear to the ground. what are you hearing from colleagues in the european parliament? >> the line of the european
parliament is much the same as it has always been. no such thing as being half in the market. and they are basically saying there is no such thing. there is lots of concern about the do not want to highlight the way out. other countries may follow suit. vonnie: that was sharon bowles. david: the condos of manhattan's new hudson yards will soon be up for sale. we will tell you what is going on with the $25 billion development. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: you are watching bloomberg. i am vonnie quinn. mark: i am mark barton. here is what we are watching today, trouble continues to unfold in south africa as the finance minister basis fraud charges. vonnie: germany pushing to see us with settlement between deutsche bank and the u.s. for mortgage backed securities. angela merkel administration hoping to focus on reshaping the biz model. mark: hurricanes and other major storms have great topic across the globe this year. breaking down different arguments on how to raise want and prevent devastation. vonnie: in south africa, fraud charges have moved the country a
step closer to a junk rating according to investors who say that is a possibility of an increase in borrowing costs on the table. the director general speaking to bloomberg about investor concern. rex-->> some of the movements do reflect that. we're hoping in time they will see through this end as the settles down the ramp will come through. >> germany wants to see us with settlement between deutsche bank in the u.s. over find for mortgage backed securities according to officials and the administration of on the -- on july merkel who want the lenders to focus on reshaping the business model. on the wish list, job cuts, a shift to online banking and branch closures. cutting third quarter guidance by a third in the aftermath of
the galaxy note 7 crisis. the company says profits will come at $4.6 billion, down from a previous forecast of 6.9 billion. the firm pulled the plug on what is supposed to be the premier found. a rare investment by an asian company in the $22 billion u.s. craft beer industry. companies say they will form a joint venture to roll out the brooklyn brand and japan with plans to expand to brazil. brooklyn brewery will get the japanese company a stake of 25%. the value of the deal was not disclosed. >> time now for the bloomberg and take were we provide background on issues of interest. tropical storms and hurricanes have wreaked havoc around the
globe. scientists say this will mean more storms and more intense storms. the consensus is during the june to november hurricane season the atlantic a simple see more storms than the 12 that occur in a typical year. hurricane matthew reached category five string before battling haiti in october as a category four, killing hundreds and leaving widespread destruction. matthew is the strongest storm to strike the region since 2000 and. in august, japan was hit with the first typhoon in 11 years. the devastation caused by hurricane sandstorms have in a constant struggle for those who live near the sea. disasters have forced some localities to rethink defenses. in new orleans, levies and canals have been used to harness the mississippi river for years but a flawed design led to letting from hurricane katrina in 2005. more than 900 people died and
three quarters of the homes were damaged. there is a divide growing on what to do to prevent the damage or even to rebuild. tokyo built a massive underground flood to virgin's facility in new york is coming up with a system around lower manhattan. some urban planners and environmentalists are challenging the right of people to rebuild after the storm. read all about this on the bloomberg. head to bloomberg.com for more stories.
>> how do you sell an apartment in a manhattan neighborhood that does not take this? you create a one-of-a-kind experience center. this is the interactive sales room designed to showcase the first residential building at hudson yards. >> we are selling not just a building, but a community. in order to get that message across, it is important to bring them the entire it's. . the first table shows the neighborhood at large. >> this spans 18,000 square feet . this highlights a traction coming to hudson yards like restaurants and the city's first neiman marcus. a 360 degrees simulation puts you right in the center of the neighborhood.
>> you are located in between this. you can really get the feeling of what it would be like to live here and play here. a gallery with fixed rancid views of the hudson river highlight the amenity of the luxury residence. >> we have devoted very expensive real estate into the amenities. together with the roof of the building. including a 75 foot pool, a spot, and private dining suite. >> everything you need to extend the living experience from your home to the rest of the amenities are available to you. the model apartments are the finale of the experience. >> the buyer has a choice. >> the teen hudson yards has 280
51 24 bedroom units for sale. 2.4 million and $32 million. >> a wait list of over 6000 inquiries. a lot of people have been waiting for a very long time to come in and learn about hudson yards and put pen to paper. next sales plunged 20% in the third quarter amid slowing inventory. this bike the sales will, they have seen momentum. >> i think the lull you may have heard about is a kospi to a husband for hudson yards. >> with the experience, it can convince the book to buy in before the 2019 opening. david: thank you to kelly belknap for that. check out pursuits and the destination for the finer things in life. just head to the bloomberg.
vonnie: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, we are covering stories from toronto this hour. fluctuatingare among today'scanners. the minutes from the fomc meeting do one hour from now. they put on janet yellen to raise rates. after the production -- discontinuance of the production samsung'smartphone, we will you how big of a hit sam -- samsung is expecting. straight to abigail doolittle. right here watching fluctuations all day. day at of those
fomc minutes. the dow, nasdaq, and s&p 500. may have fluctuations between gains and losses that we are looking at decent decline for the three major averages. this is on yesterday'selloff. let's look at volatility. at btv 2839.k tradingow the daily range of the s&p 500. spike up and yesterday, a huge spike up as well. not a lot of volatility. let's see if it changes after the relief which the minutes. dollar trading for its third day in a row on the highest
level since march. with the dollar's strength and the expectations the fed is likely to raise rates this year, we have the three-year it -- three-year and the 10 year yield trading higher. for theecent increases three-year. we are looking at a 22 basis point gain. 28 year basiseld, mentioningis worth the $44 billion in auction. increased borrowing costs, very big auctions and the cost is higher to the government. we take a look at the sectors sensitive to rates. the real estate index and financials. it is not surprising financials are gaining. real estate and utilities usually would see these indexes and the trade down on a daily
traits are rising. we could look at a rebound action here and utilities index. friday, down 11 days in a row. streak onngest losing record ever. david: abigail, thank you for that markets update. mark crumpton has more from our newsroom. leadshillary clinton donald trump in the battleground state of ohio. the university survey of likely voters has secretary quinn that 43% and truck at 30%. following last week's release of a 2005 video in which trunk is making full -- folder comments about women. wikileaks released 1200 e-mails from the personal account of a clinton check -- clinton campaign chairman to the
disclosures in the final month of the u.s. presidential race have angered democrats who blame in the wikileaks founder of working to help trump. the fbi is investigating the hack and he is fully cooperating. extended --dge has in florida. democrats sued after gov. rick scott refused to extend the october 11 deadline. judge initially granted a one-day extension. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more 120 countries. this is bloomberg. vonnie: in just less than an hour, we will get the policy meeting -- it may provide clues without better than expected data. this has fueled more bets that
the central bank is on a path to increase rates later this year. let's bring it to the chief economist to joins us and the bloomberg economics editor michael mckee, both with us here. is out thisd morning, talking about how there is plenty of stock left in the job market. does the job market have to get for them to feel a little worried about it? >> a good question. at this point, it is probably tight enough. to rise.wages starting unemployment is picking up because more people are coming into the labor force. that does not mean it cannot get tighter for the reasons more people have jobs. sure, we want more people to continue to get more jobs but they admitted we are at the week -- the point now where we should start seeing inflation. inflation, there were comments this morning in a
bloomberg news article saying we talk so much about the whites of their eyes but definitionally, what is the number you look to? >> the answer is we do not know. i think a lot of economists would say once you get near the 2% number, you are at that threshold. numbers,ok at the cpi i look at a lot of the major components. they are two components driving all of the increase that we are seeing. homeowners equivalent rent and health care. both are subtracting from purchasing power, one of the reasons the economy has downshifted instead of up shifted as the labor market is signaling the fed. i think the fed is looking at the wrong it is -- wrong indicators. >> we will get higher inflation for a third reason, oil prices are going up. i brought a chart that shows the relationship between the index the fed follows an oil price is. it is basically 1-1. you look at the chart here and
you have got west texas intermediate dropping here and starting to rise again and inflation is rising along with it. it is interesting because this is not good inflation. there is good and bad. we have the chart here. talk to us about whether this will be good for the economy or not necessarily. >> in a funny way, it is neither here nor there. the fed is looking past oil based inflation at the core rate. they have a target that is the headline rate. if the target gets higher by 2%, they will look at efforts and ways it feeds through the core rate and whether that continues to push it up already above 2%. thisare almost there and is why they expect to get there on inflation. unanimity we see
among policymakers, we should get more color on the conference of the conversation they were having last month. what will you be looking for in terms of what participants said, what voting members and nonvoting members had to say about rate increases? >> the concentration between the domestic and international group , the domestic group is going through exactly what michael has been talking about in terms of, this is the fact he will have on oil prices, the effect you will have on the labor market their there is a whole other cast of characters with the overall situation from a global perspective of saying we live in a world of supply. there is no sustainable movement anywhere in the world. we may not get a here and if we tighten and make the mistake here, we can import deflation. we have to remember where the -- we're the largest in the world so it is really painful, we move into inflation. japan is the largest net credit alert -- creditor. they have dealt with inflation for 25 years and we do not have that luxury. i think if the federal reserve
makes the mistake again, and i think they will, it will be an incorrect decision. i think import prices will come down and i think once we get through the -- the effects on oil prices, we will look at the fact that we will see wages and salaries turnover and we will be right back where we were. vonnie: do you think the fed needs to wait to raise? >> if they do not good this year, they will not do it in 2017. the move they will do, the last one we will see for at least 12 months. >> there are others who fear -- who feel that way. megan said the same thing. the big question is what happens on november 8. donald trump were to be elected, no one knows what the market reaction would be. you can see a case where if the market reaction is severe, the fed will say i hope they do not raise in december and they wait. even with hillary clinton, there is market uncertainty about what policies she would follow.
is.how gridlock washington in december, they have got to come back in a lame-duck session and pass a continuing resolution. suppose republicans are defeated and put in the minority in january, and they want to make a stand. maybe they shut down the government again. a lot of unknowns may influence what happens after election day. >> you have got the governors in washington and the bank how discrete are those orbits now? is there an imbalance? >> research staffs are definitely in touch with one another. there is a lot of interconnectivity. to talk about what mike is talking about with regard to policies going forward. hillary clinton will win and hillary clinton will be so bold to the left by bernie
sanders and elizabeth warren contingent, that she will not be able to do the fiscal stimulus she will want in the structure she will have to do it. she will have to raise taxes and spend the money on social programs. this is where we were on the obama administration and it has not led to stronger economic growth. i think that is one of the bigger factors that happens. do not go anywhere, we will not get anywhere unless we do something. got,is the best we have 1.5% growth, it is likely policy could push further toward one. benie: saying 1.6% might .ort of the new growth >> for the time being. can you get productivity up? we do not see a huge growth in labor force participation. that would depend a lot on fiscal policies, whether they do anything to inset business to do -- to give more money. what will move the
market in the day? if we see something that will be a surprise, what could it be? perception look at a on the labor market and wage is an salary. look at the economic discussion. that is the key thing. the economic discussion and with adjectives and adverbs and where they live. if it all tends to be on the positive and optimistic side, and the possibility of moving it in december increases. we are at 70 plus percent right now. the 2-year note is trading at 90 basis points. we get 1% on a backdrop of those adjustments very quickly. 66.7 to be exact. michael mckee and steve, thank you for joining us today. david: coming up, samsung is cutting its profit forecast. how devastating as the recall? weeks for that next. ♪ -- we explore that next.
substantial. in terms of sales that the coste substantial. in terms of sales, a 4% decline. in terms of profit, a 33% reduction. that tells us how they are dealing with this internally. cost are substantial buying up around the world and writing up the inventory of all the stuff they have bought to build the phones. they have to buy a list of them. on thathuge margins particular phone. why do they not scrap the? coleman it seems that was their thought. we do not know what the problem is.
graphics.ith fancy there is a positive and negative side of a battery in between is a barrier. to make the phone thinner. one trick is to reduce the size of the barrier. if it is then, it can lead to more heat transfer. it seems they decided there is no fixing the architectural but as i would only designth a battery that in the design does not work. just a phonenot manufacturer. cory: there is so many other things the company does, making displays and selling things that are so important to the world of technology.
the company will still be profitable for the third quarter. but the reputation damage is substantial. the notion that customers will trust the brand, back to go along way. take your samsung phone with a hoverboard on the seven is seven and you will have a fun time. that will massively decline. working, thees are prophet we'll really returning. david: my condolences to you and the rest of the giants fans. radio fromomberg
>> it is a little bit of a backtrack. the finance minister is saying that hasn't measures were not intended tackle them market. at tryingably aiming not to panic the market after bringing in measures and if i want to scare away many foreign buyers. he thinks the markets are already stable but this puts something further around the market. the idea is probably there will be an impact reducing already tepid gdp in the country. the overall construction in the housing market has added greatly to the gdp impact here. perhaps bringing down the growth in canada from housing market, a small price to pay for reducing
odds in vancouver. were,efly recap what they they were doing further stress and increasings eligibility requirements for mortgages to get insurance. he would have to hit higher bars to get your mortgage insured. the third piece of it was consulting over how they share some of the risk if the mortgages would go sour. what is the government trying to do here and what are the goals for the housing market? has long been saying affordable housing is one of the main tenants. been something they have aiming for. particularly on the vancouver the larger ratio between what people are making incomes and how housing
prices were growing, it is something incomes they wanted to address. therefore the housing has been the way they have been talking about this. the impact from the department of finance is probably there will be a cooling of the market feed intos that will the affordable to of the homes in this country. vonnie: thank you for that. you can watch the event in real time on life go on your bloomberg. david: time now for a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. tolining a u.s. request voluntarily suspend some work on the north dakota pipeline. the propane company is moving ahead with construction work on the project. the pipeline will damage sites considered culturally significant and poses environmental risk. this is after several protesters were arrested this week.
humana shares fell the most in three months earlier today after a sharp decline in government ratings for plans under medicare. the percentage of the membership in four-star plans or higher, about 37% in july from 78% a year earlier. a block a merger from humana at no. ,pec increased its production 33.4 million barrels per day in september. more than one million barrels of last year's daily average. mostly due tos nigeria and iraq and libya. this is the challenges opec faces to cut reduction, the first such agreement in a year. that is your business flash update. thanks, david. tory burch toss about the upcoming election and why it is important for her to eradicate low voter turnout.
markets." mark crumpton has more from the newsroom. a category two storm with maximum sustained wind at 100 miles an hour. near major hurricane strength. rainwater from hurricane matthew caused flooding. the river continues to flow -- with forecasters to crash above 25 feet on friday. with half of the fatalities in north carolina. it was still costly. the storm destroyed more than one million structures and
forced businesses to close, temporarily putting thousands of people out of work. matthew probably caused $10 billion of damage. insurance companies will likely be liable for 6 billion of that total. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in one 120 companies. this is bloomberg. vonnie: it is time for us to look at the pressure points and corporate america's's ability to adapt. becomesrnout inevitably a big issue in a presidential election. historically, the u.s. is near the bottom of the percent of eligible voters at the polls. this is according to the pew research center. tory burch has decided to do something about it.
she discussed what she is doing and why. >> i looked back at the last election and was horrified when i saw the 50% of americans vote. >> measures to make it easier, but if we can incentivize, our employees can do it, that would be a great thing. >> we do it on tuesdays. >> many countries in europe do it on a sunday. that would be a great next step. originally picked because of agriculture, back to hundred years ago, farmers went through crops in the best time to harvest them. we could easily make that change.
>> what did you do to tory burch? >> it is not easy. we had to figure out how to do it. employees four hours and in our stores, two hours, to plan their schedules around it. >> you have to have someone in the store all the time. >> yes. but they go through the day and get organized. the time ine advance, it gives you timing to plan. we also show them how to register. that is an obstacle. has beennse overwhelmingly amazing. i announced it at our town hall last minute and it was beyond in relation. people at the other companies that are signing on. >> tell me about that. he wrote a big op-ed in the wall street journal. what has and the reaction of other ceo's is? ceo's?
have had big and small corporations and startups. i think i am's in ross america. i hope we are making a difference. >> is this the beginning of something larger for tory burch in terms of political participation? >> i think political participation is essential and really represents the country. if we do not -- if we want a say in things and have the election ands out, we better get out vote. >> historically with things like voter participation, it has become partisan for reasons not clear to me, it tends to be seen as pro-democrat and antirepublican to get out more vote. have you had a partisan backlash? >> a little, i have heard that. to me, i do not see that side of it here and i want to look at all angles. to have a voice in this country is what it is all about, whether you are a republican or democrat.
>> we have got retail sales numbers on friday. give us the sense from where you sit about how retail is going overall? >> retail is tough. so many things are affecting retail. whether traffic is down, you look at customers and shop online. there are so many things that are affecting it. how do you shift your company, which we did in the last year, you understand the macro and the changes and look forward and make retail and -- an incredible insurance for the customer. >> it shifted over so much. amazon is aiming -- a name that comes again and again. >> there is a reason for retail. we hired a chief technology officer.
we find a lot of our customers -- >> i am hoping it will be more positive. i think we can to ensure that. i have high hopes. if we have the product, we can get people into the stores. people still want that in the home experience. vonnie: that was tory burch. david: coming up, we will introduce you to donald trump's old friend, david. ♪
that is really been helping impart oil this year. low onup from its february 11. as for opec oil versus non-opec 4022, 10.is oil outpacing by far the opec producers. dwarfing those of the opec producers. it may call into question the importance of the opec deal. it could lend some credence to the idea that we see iran and opec and the cartel and its production would be rising quite steadily and recently. again perhaps throwing some idea
. david: thank you for that will update. vonnie: it is time for a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. the middle-market private equity firm trying to gather $750 million for its second -- according to a person with knowledge of fundraising. they a -- they are spotting an opportunity traditional banks -- because of increased financial crisis. 30% to a record. a buying frenzy gobbling up companies, lightning -- lighting, and other supplies. it indoor method favored by u.s. cannabis cultivators.
california, massachusetts, maine, nevada, referendums, dramatically expanding marijuana use. since july earlier this day, french media giant ruled out a hospital bed for the video game developer. outlining a new strategy. accelerated focus on video games and music. bloomberg/update. wikileaks founder of playing a role in the u.s. presidential election. he joins me now. ago, julian wanders in and has been living in that -- in a room in the embassy since then. shootingf helicopter
two reporters, what has he been up to in the last years? classy has continued -- >> he has continued this after the legal test disputing -- disputing the charges. latereally resurface in july, democratic national committee e-mails. edging closer to donald trump. this ugly seems to be trying to help his campaign. --id: that provided father fodder to resign. there was talk by donald trump and others about october surprise e-mails. might release election. what have we seen from wikileaks? >> there was a big event last and a moreoger stone
marginal figure in the trump world. nothing happened. a lot of people freaked out. the league, we can we came up with this podesta e-mails. nothing huge and those though there are bits of the goldman sachs transcript, a big issue during the primaries. david: certainly e-mails donald trump is referring to on the campaign trail. later thisnt afternoon. i'm curious about what julian assange said about the role he plays here. quite thesis different things to different people. have any special affection for trump and he said i have affection for all human beings. it sells for a wink wink kind of answer to me.
it is unclear. organization is basically that wikileaks -- is not like they are huge fans of a trump administration. at its core, media organization. sitting on the e-mails for the democrats, it is tempting. come partused them to of the right-wing media circus. david: i think that will be so curious to viewers p you associate wikileaks more with the far left and the far right. why would it be in his interest to have a presidency of trump?
>> trump is in favor of a lot of things wiki leaks at its core opposes. issue is when those issues were released hillary clinton was running the state department. assange feels she has been pursuing him. there is question as to vigorously, but he does feel a trump presidency would give him a greater chance of getting out -- it is not conclusive, to put it mildly. david: you mentioned he thinks hillary clinton might come after him. what do we know about julian assange's state of mind? inside the building, he has not come out. we have heard from him from skype conversations. >> we know quite a lot. part of a troll of hillary clinton when there was a hubbub
about their medical records, he released his medical records. that shows signs -- certainly signs of psychological issues. wikileaks says it has been psychologically difficult and that has to be coming into play as it embraced donald trump. what do we know about wikileaks structurally? it is top, i said associate with the guardian, the new york times, international rewound -- renowned. >> they have a huge following and are able to make news. with most ofays their old friends media, it is not clear how many people are working with julian assange.
full-time employees are talking about very small number. extent, wikileaks is julian assange. david: what happens if there is a change of power in ecuador? what happens if leadership changes? >> we are putting on our tinfoil hats a bit on this one, but maybe protecting him. things are not as good in a coup door as they were when julian assange walked in on the mc. you can imagine people on equity or might say, why are we wasting money and resources protecting this guy. it is possible they rejected a claim that could put them back in the court system. could then be extradited to the u.s. where the u.s. is trying to kill him. that is very conspiratorial.
thee is no clear evidence u.s. is continuing to try to bring him here. david: thank you very much. you can read his story on bloomberg.com and also, every saturday and sunday. vonnie: donald trump is campaigning right now in florida. he has another scheduled event later on. , you can watch this on live go on bloomberg. this is bloomberg. mr. trump: the other day. -- against ag with very dishonest system. ♪
david: this is bloomberg markets. i'm david gura. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn. we are moments way from the release of the emitted it i will not counsel moments, but nine minutes, let's put it that way. [indiscernible] i'd didn't think it will be too hawkish. there is -- also remember there are three dots not expecting any rate hikes. it seems i the disagreement is little elevated at this point. by no means that suggests that share yellen is losing control. come time to raise rates,
widespread support. you can see where the median estimate comes down, the terminal comes down as well, 2.87, does that keep coming down every meeting? >> it has been a downward trend in that recently. that is very interesting to see the discussion around what is going on on that front. that neutral rate, and what is going on with potential growth as well. david: do you anticipate we will learn anything about the timing? >> this and that and when, it will be interesting to see how
they approach what will drive their decision. in the last statement, they did not materially bound rates, the description of economic growth, and consumer spending in particular. inn though there were signs the retail report when they met three weeks ago, there were some signs of slowing in that sector, it tells us they might be so eager to raise rates and they are getting so serious about that, they decided to just not a knowledge that. economicussion around of theand the state consumer sector particular, it will be interesting in the minutes. will be able to look at the minutes side-by-side and compare and that is what people need to do. when it comes to the actual minutes, it takes time to go through them.
kobe the segments you will go through first? >> we will go straight through policy discussion i think, and discussion about economic growth, consumer growth in particular, would be very interesting. i would be interested to see if the discussion on inflation has changed. we have not seen much so far on that front. they keep telling us that approaching our target. any details would be interesting. clinic comes to labor market, there is pretty much consensus it is a good place and we are getting close. >> yes, another interesting detail. vonnie: some slack in the labor market. all right. it is pretty unusual although, once you hear what it is for, --
>> nothing to tragic about that. to meeting to decide on a rates, there will be a wide agreement. the minutes could move markets and then, you know, everything comes. we will see. something will move the markets. everything will be fine then. we're lucky. if bloomberg intelligence senior u.s. economist, thank you. for more information and the research intelligence, had to bloomberg. up next, erik schatzker will break down the fomc minutes. this is bloomberg. ♪
how much you qualify for, the ways to receive your money... and more. plus, when you call now, you'll get this magnifier with led light absolutely free! when you call the experts at one reverse mortgage today, you'll learn the benefits of a government-insured reverse mortgage. it will eliminate your monthly mortgage payments and give you tax-free cash from the equity in your home and here's the best part... you still own your home. take control of your retirement today!
this chart supports the idea. a three-year chart of the 10 year yield. a downtrend. extra dairy policy of rates so low for so long. more recently we see the 10 year yield climbing off of the brexit bottom. climbing perhaps to the top of the range. this longer-term chart does suggest the fed may be on track to raise rates this she. as for the dollar index, higher going into the minutes and still slightly higher. another asset class where we are not seeing much of a reaction. lots of weakness for commodities today including oil, natural gas. that is still the same.
has not changed much from the fed minutes. lots of anticipation, but maybe a situation where we say much of do about nothing. not much came out of this as far as markets are concerned. oliver: thank you. matt: more perspective from the latest minutes from the fed. former federal reserve governor himself. he is now a professor booth school of economics and joins us in chicago. thank you for joining us. let me first ask your reaction to i will not say mutiny but definitely a big debate starting to stir in the fed. the chairs that clearly on the dovish side. >> i think it is clear before and a discussion of the minutes that there are a number of people that want to move sooner rather than later. what is very interesting that
someone like eric rosengren who was favorably disposed that keeping rates low for a long time is now one of the p dissenting and saying we really do need to move. not only the labor market issues you were discussing, but broader issues on financial stability that eric has raised and i also have concerns about. matt: we don't see a lot of inflation. we have not seen inflation rare its ugly head in so long, that a lot of people, not necessarily federal economist, but market participants find it hard to believe we can see the economy overheat if rates were kept lower for longer. >> we see the inflation below the 2% target. expectations have come down. one that is looking through the
front window of the car rather than the rearview window of the past. they want to be ready, but it is not only the inflation pressures, but financial stability considerations. thinking about the consequences of having interest rates low for so long. when i was there we brought rates to zero. including the phrase for some time. nobody thought that would mean3 2016 and 2017. >> when we talk about that, there is still focus on what will happen at the next central bank meeting or the one in december. we look at the past. what does this mean going
forward? >> i think it was still be a gentle path. the stock market k out with the statement for each member and where they stand. that will become more and more gentle overtime. so i think one should not mix of the extent with the assets of the rate. i think they will move up in a gradual and gentle way. i do think people want to get started sooner rather than later. matt: we know there are five governors and the bank of new york that vote and for others that rotate, leaving seven regional fed presidents who do not mode. how important are the views you go >> i think janet yellen that
-- really tried to build a broader consensus. it was not a focus on who was voting and not voting. it is what people are seeing and the broad consensus of the committee. that is where the decision is made. i think it is really a broader committee decision made. it is really the substance of the argument. >> how important is it to build a consensus? with this kind of dissent, it does not seem like she is very close to that. >> i think she wants to move soon, but not immediately. within the market participant seeing the possibility of a rate hike is highly likely by the end
of the year. in certain ways, very effective for the chair to be able to convey that and say it is a close call. the likelihood of a move by the end of the year. oliver: you said there was a move that would come by the december meeting. i want to look at the probability pass. this green line is close to showing now the market has gone on board with that. i debate search. two thirds think it will go into december, which is basically the high since january. what is the reasoning for that? the dissent or fundamental economic picture? >> the dissents largely reflect the economic conditions.
communication is always a challenge. you do not want to go too far. i think they have been able to raise expectations by the end of the year. the minutes are consistent with that. something could happen between now and december, but unless there is a major chop -- major shock, i think they're on track. matt: when you look at the dollar, we are at a seven-month high. closers -- closer to an increase, that will climb a little bit. does that that -- hold the fed back to strengthen the dollar? >> i think the fed understands the consequences of tightening when most of the world is going in the opposite direction. certainly the dollar has
strengthened against many other currencies. i think the fed understands that and has taken into account that the economy does seem robust enough. matt: professor at the university of chicago booth school of business. coming up, mohamed el-erian gets his reaction to the fed minutes. we will ask him to his take on the gerald -- general economy. oliver: checking on the bloomberg first word news. mark crumpton is in the newsroom with more. mark: the fbi now leading the investigation into tuesday's deadly plane crash near the connecticut headquarters of pratt & whitney. the investigation took a turn after the associated press citing a local mayor reported the lone survivor informed authorities the crash that killed one person was intentional. investigators have not confirm
that. ace dude private and instructor were trying to land the plane when it struck a utility pole. in syria, an airstrike on the rubble -- rebel held side of aleppo has reportedly left 15 people dead. at least 41 people were killed. a month long assault from syrian and russian warplanes has devastated aleppo, which international aid organizations think is in the middle of a humanitarian crisis. philippine president has orders his defense chief to cancel operations for them joint military exercises with the u.s. and is trying to chart a foreign policy that is not dependent on washington. meantime, an eight-day combat operation between the u.s. and philippine worse is ended a day early. he has insulted president obama
and said this only benefits the u.s. military. bringing hundreds of marines and sailors, along with power generators and bulldozers to aid relief efforts in haiti. armed personal started delivering aid yesterday. that you would you carrying more than 1100 sailors in 600 marines. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. oliver: coming up, the exit from the european union bay not be a swift as one thought. a plunge in the pound. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
matt: this is bloomberg "markets." i am matt miller. oliver: i am oliver run it. this is on you the prime minister theresa may said parliament should be allowed to stay on the plan for taking britain out of the european union. she added the u.k. will seek the best day possible. >> what we are doing is beyond ambitious. and that will include the massimo -- maximum possible asset to trade within the european market. >> as for the sticking points and process, head of the european parliament economic and monetary affairs committee.
>> i am always a little bit skeptical. i think that weakening on that makes political sense for hers -- for her. she is in more danger with the vote at the end. with a vote at the beginning she can say what the object is our. they will obviously change during the course of negotiations. >> the interpretation of the financial markets is that this will lead to a softer brexit. this will end up with a more managed process with others involved. including single market access. >> access to the single market is there for third countries. it is just what you have to do to get it. this is what we really run --
really want. we have been closer and have access and trade across border without necessarily having to get permission from regulators. if you are not in the eu, there is no passports. an important question will be around the customs union. can we be in the customs union for good? is this something where we can be in that ends will be in the free trade agreement? that is a negotiating point, not something we can negotiate. tom: most of the knowledge americans have about parliament was defined in three movies about the united kingdom that we watch and think we have an idea of parliament. how will the labour and conservative go at it as they
try to get the power or the discussion away from the prime minister? >> they will have a debate, and then we'll say what the advantages and disadvantages are trying to stay in the single market or the customs union and push the negotiating that has already been express toward a softer run.3 then they will take a vote on it. it is not yet clear to me because i have not gone into parliament today whether this is something that would go from the normal way to the common law or just the comments. the argument being used in the area where the royal prerogative has been exercised in the past, like whether we go to war, has already gone through a vote in the house of commons in recent times. this is the biggest thing that faces the united kingdom.
and i've never seen as the client like this. we look at historically what happens when we are in similar situation as the one we are right now. it is not good. the blue line is trailing eps for the s&p 500 that goes on a quarterly rolling basis. this is pretty much when we peaked on earnings. matt: this was the middle of 2014 basically? >> that is when things started to roll over. going into the six quarter. expected that we will see another quarterly drop year-over-year. when it happens historically, it is not a good situation. earnings declines are swift. the red bar shows a drop. what is different that i might
point out, look at the slope of the declines. these are deep and fast. this is very unique in that these are sustained quarterly declines. almost six quarters. not quite as deep. perhaps an earnings correction in a sense. matt: that is interesting. nine of the markets should be looking at that. another reason the market fell yesterday was oil. oil down for a second day but the market is up. interesting to look at what is going on with oil. we all know opec does not stick to quotas. it is interesting to show it. we have opec production quotas
in the blue line. the white wine is what they actually produce, not including iraq. this chart only goes to 2012. they have been flowing past the quotas for decades and decades. they get fairly close at some points. now that we are on all-time highs, interesting they will set a quota 33 million barrels per day, when that is the highest they have produced ever anyway. >> they do move pretty closely where they do adhere to it. the past three years it really departs from that. matt: cory: we will stick with commodities. the commodities close of next. a closer look at gold.
right now. lower on concerns that lower opec may not cut output. expressing all to miss him after a deal with russia signaling support. caught and futures surge after the u.s. government made a larger than expected cut for domestic inventories citing hired chinese demand. much larger than expected cut. very interesting story. soybean futures gave up earlier gains. the u.s. raised estimates for record -- record crops. you can see it here. you can see on the bloomberg tv. it is near a four-month low.
the fed will raise rates. an increase could strengthen the dollar. gold is in white. i decided to throw in this blue line. this is the 10 year yield inverted. while gold is hitting a four-month low, the 10 year yield also hitting a four-month low. it is actually a four-month high. they track each other pretty well. pretty good idea what is happening with the gold and 10 year. oliver: more insight what is happening with golden medals. as matt just had on the chart, gold, but then treasury. people have been talking about gold. why? >> inflation talkback on the table. we just had the top precious metals forecasters tell us in an
interview they were expecting the inflation hedge to be on the table for gold. they are expecting oil prices to rise. they couple that with the central bank easing we are seeing everywhere, except for the united states. all of that combined to use as a hedge against possible inflation. gold going up at least in their mind in the next few months or near-term. oliver: even though we've seen this waiting and waiting. when will we see the life of inflation, but still another point to add to the larger case for gold? >> absolutely. still plenty of people in the market who do not think there will be any inflation. we are seeing that played out in the fed itself but traders of gold as well.
it really depends on what kind of that you are making. another one you have to keep in mind. we have not heard that much, not the way we did in the huge lead up to 2011 highs. but it is still there. >> goldman sachs and bank of america saying to do the opposite. what is the consensus? >> a lot of the reason you are single goldman and bank of america on the other end of this, and they have been for quite some time, some of them do things where we see these huge games. -- gains. goldman is saying prices will be lower. the bet right now is there is probably not much more they can do. with bank of america on the other side, of them and many others believe there is a
possible inflation hedge. some do not think the economic outlook, especially in europe, all be as stable as some others may be predicting. brexit still does remain on the table. each and every week when we write the latest update on gold, we say there are people worried about the economic outlook, which does play as a hedge. matt: the underlying commodity in the miners used me the only way to play golf. -- gold. >> most people in the market we are talking to will be trading the commodity itself. when you look at the asset managers, they are very much looking at etf's. a story last week looking at the minor etf's, which are doing ok. a lot of people think there have -- think they have balance sheet back.
it depends on which side of the trade you are on. oliver: if you want to be on the minor straight, you have to be pretty convicted. somewhat of a higher data to the commodity. also, let's talk about aluminum. we had alcoa earnings yesterday. not so hot there. the civic company issues from a corporate perspective. what was the read through cap coke >> it was kind of a nonfactor. alcoa reported it was not as good as people had expected. a 10% increase for 2017 that they just completely took out of the report. this did not go over well in the market. plenty of questions in the market. very leveraged to other industries. for aluminum, we have seen
pretty decent gains. we did get a report from a state forecaster that they are expecting more to come back online at the end of the year because we have seen the rise in price. oliver: great stuff. talking aluminum and gold. matt: checking on the headlines on first word news. for that, mark crumpton in the newsroom. mark: donald is suggesting washington politicians work together to keep themselves out of -- out of legal trouble. he criticized the justice department refusal to recommend charges against hillary clinton for combining personal and official business on a home e-mail server. he implied both republicans and democrats went along with it. he extended his lead in missouri. a new poll at 46%. that is up from a one percentage
point lead he had in august. the 2005 video he made comments about women. it also shows gary johnson at 5% and jill stein at 2%. in the battleground state of ohio, hillary clinton leads donald trump. this survey of likely voters has hillary clinton at 43% to mr. trump up 44%. that was conducted after the second presidential debate. leading mr. trump among likely voters in wisconsin. a new survey shows clinton of 44% and trump up 47%. this was conducted before the debate ended but after the video was made public. gary johnson gets 9%. jill stein's at 3%. during campaign events in colorado and nevada, hillary
clinton will target republicans who support donald trump. those who revoke their support for trump following his comments about women will appeal -- have propped him up for a very long time. local news 24 hours a day powered by more than 26 hundred journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. oliver: the battle of the billionaires who are throwing millions of dollars into political races in the swings eight of nevada. this is bloomberg. ♪
matt: this is bloomberg "markets." i am matt miller. oliver: time for a look at some of the biggest business stories him and his right now. silver lake management and home up bronco planning to make takeover offers. ibm and cisco are also interested in acquiring the cyber security company with the next round of bids do next month. they may come up with a separate strategic partner to make an offer. a 20% stake as part of a strategic review. unicredit will offer shares and nearly five dollars each in an accelerated book building. unicredit and ubs are acting as joint coordinators in a sale starting now. saudi arabia is exploring the popular -- the popularity of it
during banks and loosening restrictions according to people familiar with the matter who say the kingdom wants to boost growth in the private sector. the central bank said to be weighing proposals that would let foreign lenders open more branches. finally, a one-day drop in share since july earlier today. the 5% drop followed news vivendi had ruled out a hostile bid for the video game developer. the chief operating officer spoke today at a conference outlining new strategy. planning to focus in mobile, video games, and music. that is your bloomberg business flash. matt: the swing state of nevada has been attracting millions of dollars in campaign donations from outside groups. some of it from big names like george soros and the koch brothers, of course on opposite
sides. they are using cutting edge data to salty snacks to influence voters. money and politics reporter zach writer covering the story and joins us now. why is nevada considered so important? >> nevada is one of a handful of swing states that is important for the presidential and senate race. nevada seems to have attracted this proportionate amount of outside spending from the coat others and george soros who are not the candidate or campaign, but want to spend money independently to influence the outcome of the voters. part of that is because of nevada there is a grudge match between the koch brothers who have long feuded with senator harry reid and is now retiring and trying to get a replacement in the senate. they are trying very hard to get a republican elected. oliver: soros and the koch
brothers, there is no big surprise there but there are different things happening this time around. what stood out to you about how this race is very different? >> they are trying to play the ground game a lot more. they have increased the grassroots effort by 50%. i walked around a couple of neighborhoods with guys that are going door to door in china to get people to vote for republican candidates. matt: it is interesting because in the debate we hear about donald trump giving a tax break to the richest people in the country, but it seems like aside from the coat others the richest people will in the country are backing hillary clinton. is that because they want to bet on a winning horse? >> trump does not have a lot of support from the donor class. they refuse to do anything for
trump at all. hillary clinton is running a pretty standard campaign with a ton of big-money donors contributing to super pac. trump has a few, but nothing on the order of what hillary clinton does. >> who are some of these folks? is there anyone with a big-name willing to put their foot down cap go >> some of the biggest trump akers in terms of money, one big one is bob mercer who runs -- helps to run renaissance technology, hedge fund firm in rhode island. he has his own super pac just to support trump. sue -- two of his closest political advisers were hired to run the trump campaign. matt: who are the big names
backing hillary clinton gekko >> interestingly, one of the big ones is bob mercer. george soros -- matt: they could save a lot of money if they send hey we are canceling each other out. we have george soros. the kind of typical names. tom's fire. >> you talk about how much money is going into the race. could we hone in on the issue that are most important to the billionaire financiers that are behind the super pac money going in? it is different for almost every donor. george soros effort in nevada is
time the market tumbles a little bit everyone starts battening the hatches for the next seven-year drought. i don't think anything has changed. you cannot rely on things like honeywell and say they are leading their company. things look pretty solid still. >> one thing we have been watching today is the correlation between the pound and stocks. i just called up the s&p 500 intraday chart that is yellow and the pound is in white. they have been moving almost in light step -- lockstep. when does the dollar get to the point that u.s. companies have to worry about it? >> a couple of things. i do think there is a realization that brexit is not a fairytale. the u.k. 10 year yield 60 basis points when the ftse has made an
all-time high. it may not mean anything. but the dollar at 97 is not posing any risk. it is a response to a lot of uncertainty. the dollar is the safe haven trade. >> you mentioned brexit. we also have the political campaign in the markets. is it politics finally coming into the market? >> it is possible. if it is politics, we will just have to wait until november. the polls are telling such a strong story that it may be less about the presidential uncertainty and the confirmation of the house or senate. does it change? i think it will make no difference.
>> this is a chart on the s&p 500 and white. so you can see when chinese you when volatility surged back in february. it looks like that is picking up a little bit again. now at the lowest level against the dollar since september 2010. is that a possibility echo we have not been talking much about china. could this be coming back to the picture? >> in some ways that chart reminds us what our clients are asking. i think people are trying to understand the flash crash of the pound and raising questions about market structure and liquidity, and as a consequence, i think people are due risking - - derisking.
i think we should see credit whitening. the world a credit to -- the world according to credit. matt: global advisor of research tom lee. oliver: joining us to talk about the markets, joe weisenthal. talking about one thing that tom mentioned briefly. it seems like this has faded into the background after a few days here. how come this is not something we are starting to pay more attention to? >> i think it is interesting to watch that we called it a flash crash. the implication of the term is that it hit a level that does not make sense. we've seen the pound getting closer and closer to the lows. the very bottom that was made around 7:00 eastern time.
perhaps the argument that those levels were ridiculous and unjustified. matt: we often look at the pound against the dollar. if you look at the pound index, you can see a little bit of a bounce today. you can see the amazing dissent. >> unbelievable how much this has collapsed. i solved by one measure people were talking it has literally never been lower when you look at real exchange rates. matt: there was a chart out today showing it is the cheapest currency of all of the peers. based on the price parity measure. >> there is a little bit of
hope. hope about the parliament going to be consulted in some ways. may not be the hard brexit. there is skepticism about whether that makes sense. this is all what a brexit means. oliver: going back to the federal quits. when you look at minutes, earlier officials made it clear they wanted to know what happened with brexit. it seems thus far pretty innocuous in terms of the economic data if not the currency. is this factoring in right now? >> this has been one of the themes of the year, the u.s. economy sees the cell but the economic conditions are not great. we talk a little bit how chinese currency volatility is picking
up again. goldman sachs warning the outflows may be bigger than people realize. international conditions are not over. it does seem for the moment that there is nothing particularly worrisome acutely happening that would affect the u.s. oliver: be sure to tune in today to what you miss. talking bank earnings. you can catch what do miss streaming live on twitter. matt: we stream that live on twitter? now 90 minutes. much more coming up in the next hour of bloomberg markets. first, a look at the u.s. markets up across the board after a drop yesterday. ♪
"bloomberg markets." ♪ oliver: we are live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york for the next hour plus, los angeles, chicago, and washington. here is what we are watching. eggers described their most recent decision to not raise rates as a close call and that a hike is needed relatively soon. the dollar is climbing and treasuries falling in the wake of those minutes. stocks feel a little changed as we had to the close. we are talking with mohammed later in the hour. we are one hour from the close of trading. take it over to matt miller really quick with breaking news. matt: i will go to erik schatzker getting by with a fed minute release an hour ago. what have you got? the minutes show us the
federal reserve was very much a divided institution. you will recall we got a seven-to vote. seven out of the 10 policymakers with a vote chose to give the benchmark borrowing rate at 25 basis points. we had three dissents from. -- f --of the kansas city fed. they all wanted to raise rates but they were voted down. the minutes show us this is even more of a divided fed than the vote might suggest. it all comes down to how you look at the labor market. i will read you a quote directly from the minutes which pretty much encapsulate the camp. a few other members were concerned that without a prompt presumption of gradual increases
in the target rate for the federal funds rate, they compared -- potentially sharp tightening of monetary policy package shortly economic expansion. words, others in the room are concerned that if rates are left to low for too long, the labor market gets too tight, you spark an inflationary fire, and it forces the fed to act too quickly to raise rates to fast to douse the fire and that pushes the economy into a recession. not the clearly majority. janet and bill dudley, the new york president this morning arguing that you can in fact increase -- reduce rates lower and drum were people into the labor force. -- drives these differences of opinion into the labor market and how the strong labor economist like janet yellen, for example, buttressed,
really think we can keep things the way they are at least for a couple of more months. there is a growing chorus of people that say we need to strike a bounce between the fed's two mandates. maximum employment on the one hand and price stability on the other. the balance means raising rates sooner than later. very much, erik schatzker at the federal reserve. i have breaking news on snapchat. inc is the parent company of snapchat. goldman sachs to lead its ipo. theyays, credit suisse, are all on the tombstone, but morgan stanley and goldman sachs someleave the ipo, which have said the parent company wants to raise enough money to at $25 billion.
oliver: now back to the fed. joining me now is a bloomberg view columnist. we're joined from the phone. it is all about the dissent among the fed members. what exactly is driving that sort of disagreement? what exactly here has sort of changed some of the participants that earlier had not been as hawkish as they are now? >> the disagreement and the close call has to do with three things. --, how much flack is less slack is left in the labor market and in particular, will the participation rate continue or not? there are different views about wage determination and to what extent is that a threat for
future inflation. three is not mentioned but i would put it on the table, that they differ to the extent with which ultra low rates have financial stability. >> i hope you can hear me. more than a couple interesting things in the minutes. among them is the idea that the number of participants who presumably chose to wait until a close considered it call. the other thing i'm curious to hear from you is when you talk andt differences of opinion a battle over whether there is and is not slack in the labor market, does that help us to understand the fed better? there is no longer a black and white yang yang of doves versus hawks.
it is much more subtle than that. >> you are right. first in terms of how close is are- i think the markets right pricing the hike somewhere between two thirds and three quarters. why isn't it higher based on the minutes? it is a long time until december and there is a lot of fluidity domestically and also internationally. in terms of nuances, it is interesting to see what they agreed on. they agreed we need to the labor market better and go into the micro. they refer to the fact that education differences cannot explain differences in unemployment against race and ethnic groups. that is important and they also the neutral weight of interest.
it is a fascinating read because it shows you we are going well beyond normal consideration in assessing what the fed is likely to do. risk what is the biggest to a hike in december in your think that one out, or another from the election could change the course of the fed here? >> in terms of what they worry about election wise, i suspect it is that whoever wins comes in and signals a massive shift in economic policy that would make people more risk-averse. you can see this happening if donald trump wins and if he immediately announces that he will impose tariffs on china and mexico because the second
element would lead to a recession here in the united dates. there are clearly circumstances not only here, but brexit, the italian referendum, in which politics can complicate economics. but they sidestepped all of this in the minutes. they really did sidestep any political discussion and they want to come across as being politically neutral. matt: eric, you have got another question? >> i'm curious to know which camp your end, the one that includes clearly dudley from this morning and janet yellen from the press conference and i am sure we will hear again on this on friday and that argument is effectively, we are so close to the zero bound that it does not really matter if we raise now or in december. it is much easier to pull back from 50 and it is to race. rather, it is much easier to raise it is to pull back ordeal you find yourself in this other
camp, which is raising questions about the fed's's which worries about leverage in the economy and which is also beginning to raise questions about the returns that pension funds and insurance companies and endowments are earning. >> i would be in the latter camp and i would have voted for a hike. i have said this for a while now, it is not because i don't appreciate that economic arguments are balanced. they are. but for those of us who look at the financial application, we worry about a number of things. the extent to which leverages risk, a and excessive different way of saying, there is now higher risk of future financial stabilization. is happeningt what to long-term providers of financial protection, insurance companies, pensions. that is important because the lower the services, the greater the self-insurance by individuals, which means yet
to economicwind activity. finally, we worry about the extent to which markets have become over reliant on market banks to express volatility. put him financial consideration, it tips the argument in favor of the hike. i would have voted for hike if i were in the room last september. why,r: i am wondering still wondering why this is cropping and now. when you look at economic numbers, it is getting closer and some of the science are looking at that target. but ultimately, it is a conversational most of that speculation in some sense and now we are getting worried about the philosophical conversation about the longer-term impact of low rates for an extensive time. us an idea why the conversation we're having right we have aidn't philosophical conversation years back in september when we should
have done a hike then? >> it is the same thing you would have heard me say in 2007, when, at that time, the risk was the overenthusiastic activities of plywood credit factories. the economy was doing fine. for those of us looking at what was happening on the financial -- excessivex axis risk-taking and were worried that ultimately, it would be the financial circumstances that would determine economic activity rather than the other way around. there are times in history where and thenoes too far, it becomes a threat to economic stability. withry if we continue ultra low and negative rates here at europe and japan, we will end up encouraging excessive risk-taking, we will -- distort financial system to such an extent that we may find
future financial stability is a risk to the real economy. matt: we talk about if donald trump wins and if he puts in place policies that send the u.s. into an economic recession. right now, do you think, bracing themselves for that possibility to some extent? >> know, whether you look at what is happening here, and italian referendum coming up in december, whether you look at really important elections in markets areermany, basically sidestepping this political uncertainty for good reason. one is that the outcomes are binary, which it is very hard to price. are conditioned to rely on the fed to come in and suppress financial volatility. markets are not pricing and that uncertainty and i understand why. but it is something to keep an eye on. matt: thank you. it is a pleasure to talk to you today. mohamed el-erian.
oliver: let's get a check on the headlines this afternoon. mark crumpton is in the newsroom with more. mark: the fbi is now leading the investigation into tuesday's that they check -- deadly plane crash. a military jet engine maker. it took a turn after the associated press, setting the local mayor, reported the lone survivor and the crash killed one person, that it was intentional. investigators have not confirmed that. a student pilot and instructor tended to land a plane when it struck a utility coal. 13 officials from the george w. bush administration have joined the growing number of republicans publicly opposed to the presidential candidacy of donald trump. all of them signed a statement saying the billionaire -- the billionaire does not stand for the party's principles. , mike pence,g mate
trying to rally christians at liberty university in virginia. he says people of faith cannot stand "idly by" in this. it says were hacked from a personal account of clinton campaign chairman john podesta. disclosures in the final month of the u.s. presidential race have outraged democrats who blame russian state-sponsored hackers and wikileaks fed -- wikileaks founder julian massage -- julian assange helping donald trump. he says he is fully cooperative. whoever istin says fully responsible for hacking the democratic party is merely a distraction from the main issues. president putin says he is concerned hillary clinton and donald from our campaigning using it -- anti-russian rhetoric. hillary clinton spoke at a forum in moscow. he wants moscow and
washington in good terms and is worried about escalating tensions between the two nations. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. back to you. on bankingg up, more and the breaking news of the pickedhat snapchat has for its ipo. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
matt: the parent company of snapchat has chosen morgan stanley -- congratulations, great scoop, first of all. second of all, what do we know about this? >> this is another step in the process of snapchat. banks, -- five other jpmorgan, deutsche bank, credit suisse. it has been out here according to our sources and it is interesting the banks i hired at -- that they actually got from the firm's a little earlier. the banks have been hired and the next thing they will be finalizing the documents here for a potential public offering.
oliver: you touched on some of the background with the banks that any view on why these will be the two winners and is their background you know about? known as silicon valley for being the leader's underlying ipo's. past offerings, morgan stanley had a facebook listing of 16 billion. there has been back and forth in terms of -- it is not surprising to see at least one of the two names, and we have both of them in here. the next that, they will be helping them. have already reported -- reported they have started pressing documents and the company is aiming to go public as early as next month -- next march. we could see a big tech ipo that we have not seen in a good while now. .att: i am looking at ipo go the tech ipo's have been to work by everything else. and my terminal, the white line is everything in the old line here is internet ipo's.
ano not know if snapchat is internet ipo or what it is and how it works. no one i know actually uses snapchat. >> you are revealing your age. matt: do you use it all the time? >> we have used it before and often. send disappearing messages. they built out a story product where you can post things or people can see a series of videos you can post. they are bringing in brands, where a lot of the revenue comes from. revenue thisin year is up from $69 million last year. from an ipo perspective, i will below a billion dollars and the chemical file confidentially and test the water with investors before filing publicly. forill be the challenges these banks? we know facebook was a big ipo and had a bit of a stumbling out of the gate. it is hard to nail down what the profit stream is and all that
stuff is important for investors price to pay.a >> twitter was the last big social media ipo. there are not a lot out there. it will be interesting to see what they actually point to in the course of the roadshow. snapchat has been trying to have media deals. you have seen the deal with nfl. those revenue streams will probably be more well-received by investors. you can see some timeout in terms of where the money is coming in. those will be the main points where i think they will be pointing investors to. >> i am sure you have to get back to the phones. our reporter who broke that >> the biggest gaining as the dollar in a month. this is bloomberg. ♪
little bit over the course of luck -- -- over the course of the last few weeks. it is not just us anymore. you have the bank of england in november and everyone is watching that. >> we take a look at currencies. perhaps a bearish view on the british pound having their best day and a month today. levels last seen since 1984. i suppose a day worth rally is a fantastic day worth rallying.
condition for the disease to spread. it claimed a growing number of are ill-equipped to respond to the cases. florida because of the storm. people now have until october 18 to the register. scott refused to extend the october 11 deadline. the judge initially granted a one-day extension. donald trump suggested the washington politicians in both parties work together to keep themselves out of legal trouble. , they recommend charges against hillary clinton -- he suggested both democrats and pelicans and times when one with it. hillary clinton's may be looking to turn three traditional red states blue. georgnd