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tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  October 24, 2016 3:30pm-5:01pm EDT

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florida. the associated press reports there is little evidence of large-scale damage. trump said the property was devastated after hurricanes in 2004 and 2005. members and others say they do not recall significant damage. trump did not answer questions about the damage but conceded pocketing some of the insurance money in a 2007 deposition in an unrelated law death lawsuit. hillary clinton both at picture and saint -- campaign rally. just that ms. clinton: to push the terrorist out of the key city of multiple, already, and i quote, a total disaster, and that our country is, quote, looking so dumb. he is basically declarative the
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even started. he is proven to the world what it means to have an unqualified commander-in-chief. it involves more than 25,000 iraqi troops. cordoned off eight villages on the city policies outskirts. 25,000 iraqi troops in addition to airplanes and advisers. officials are criticizing efforts by the united nations to strengthen sanctions, a nuclear test in september. officials tell the associated press the proposed sanctions accused the u.s. of orchestrating the punishment. day andews 24 hours a
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more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ amanda: live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york. rise monday stocks unleashing -- unleashing a fresh round of earnings. >> at&t can add wall street to the list of skeptics. andsome lawmakers politicians have come out against the deal. ameritradel, td tim later this hour -- we
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will break it all down into day's the numbers do not lie. ♪ cliff let's take a look at where the major averages stand. echoing what is happening globally, igniting enthusiasm. area of weakness. you see cyclical stocks forward toward friday's's number. >> we are looking for a nice rally. a lot of strength being driven by technology. trading at an all-time record high. another top view. higher as itg raised its price target to 14%
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and in-line revenue number for the third quarter. in december quarter relative to themmerce, basically saying company reporting is third quarter after the close. quarter,rt -- fourth shares are up an amazing 20%. better-than-expected quarter. investors are looking at earnings and revenues and 45 million iphone units to be sold. earlier today, our team spoke to sean harrison. bullish rightfully so. he still expects strength.
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and the december quarter to be strong driven by growth. he outlined the idea that some investors are getting concerned with a march quarter. using the idea that we could see a repeat of last year around the iphone 7. better-than-expected iphone 7 launch propelling into the next year. interesting asking us to look to the second quarter. at 449 date,look .his is a five-year chart the huge diversions last time last year when there was a diversions. revenue shot up and the stock shot down in anticipation. it is not a traditional use of charts.
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we have a white line around revenue and it suggests a happy with the street is looking for, a small decline in revenue. into the december quarter, recovery in revenue. the street could have this one right into 2017. >> all right. thank you. oliver: you probably know about the $85.4 billion takeover. the biggest announced deal so far this year. may have been overshadowed by at&t, the stake in hilton and td america trade. spoke to one of the most influential m&a bankers in the industry. -- of north american jeff asked whether we were in store for another big round of industry consolidation.
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>> in some ways, all of the deals is what is interesting. completely different industry sectors. one is media telecom and the other is real estate. the common driver is the need for growth. people are thinking much more creatively about growth. a convergence between telecom and media content and distribution. people talk about i want to get the same content and some way, the steel creates the ability for a perfect feedback loop because you get to get people's reaction, tv, mobile, broadband. it may be a little thinking out-of-the-box. in some ways when you're in this type of market where you are thaty look for growth, growth can be facilitated by
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robust equity market. you're able to deliver that through a nontraditional combination. we talk about this a lot. see that across multiple different industry sectors where people are making bolder moves in terms of vertical integration. this is one such example. have beenese stocks up since friday and a little today. there are a lot of questions and appropriately, has the bar been in terms of what is it mean for scale and having a .omplete -- to deliver at&t has done exactly that. they raised the bar. buying 25% stake in hilton, they have done a number of deals over in the united states.
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year, what is their view of the leisure -- leisure space? >> it is an interesting company. off of what a global company is today, they are a fortune 500 global company. people, one third in europe and one third in the u.s. the origin is in china. at in terms of tourism and hospitality, 120 million people. last year, approaching $300 billion. in the past he -- the past six years, the gross has made 17% in terms of the number of people representing tourism. that is a huge opportunity. if you look how it is, it is a small percentage of what you
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would see an terms of the tourism market and the western hemisphere. >> we see a huge first. have a figure out the cultural better than a few years ago? >> i think it is hard to make a broad generalization. the understanding of a timeline of having u.s. deals, it is better than when it came onto the market. what you are required to hit.
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you see a number of minority deals happen. >> the head of the m&a. >> more than any other non-financial short in the u.s. corporate bond market. up next, we put that debt load in the dutch into context. this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: gold is still up but it has not recovered from the plunge earlier in the month. this is what you're looking at here.
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auctions held by hedge funds and other speculators. a third straight -- he sees tighter u.s. monetary policy, pricing and injuries and sometimes, most likely december. a lot of divisiveness over where gold is headed. lipase they will rise, they will have an influence on availability. my only is there the largest in history, the best kind of credit they could get, already a big player in the market. issuer, nowate bond
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the single largest of the group. take a look at the other names on the list. credit to fuel mergers. it raises an interesting question of what is striving the strategy behind the mergers and how much of that is simply the availability of credit and how much of it is credit -- strategy that will lead to long-term shareholder growth. >> few of those charts have stuff in common. maybe the other ones will jump on the -- on board. mine is simple. big implications. corporate ceo's have been talking about the election. relative to history, it is happening quite a bit. point, in the previous election, we had about roughly half the mentions of the u.s.
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election as we had right now. very few people are talking about it. about beingkdrop very hesitant to talk about outlooks going into the next quarters and the next year. you talk about quarterly for the end of the year and people are hesitant to give an assessment fewuse of the fed and a other things. >> 2008 is a big outlier. grappling with bigger issues. >> like plunging stock prices. exactly. interesting trend. we were just talking m&a, a deal with online brokers. coming up next, the td ameritrade president and ceo. ♪
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scarlet: time for a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. the phony bank accounts get a is hurting wells fargo. consulting firms find that 14% of existing customers have decided to leave the bank, which would result in a for the dollar loss in revenue. 30% of existing customers claim they are putting a total of $212 billion in deposits at risk. lawsuit questioning the safety is an attack on free speech rights. they say research backs their claim that they are vulnerable to hackers. lied forit claims they financial gain. to first u.s. car unit
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practice the top three in liability rank and. sedan afterodel s losing it last year. holiday reprieve, senior lenders have agreed to give the train -- the chain reading room. that is according to people with knowledge of the matter. too much at $75 million credit facilities limiting how much it could access. that is your update. known for targeting real estate companies, is one skin making waves. .e has his sights set at broader markets this year.
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toan open letter shareholders following the company's moved to shanking to -- strengthen directors on the board, saying it was an attempt to stifle voiceless. >> they have not responded as far as i know, since i have been in here. knew we were coming. we started our engagement in june. they shrank the board. one less available for election. they are in violation of the charter, which is problematic. >> you have been urging for responses. i wonder what you have gotten from other shareholders, and black rock. he does the biggest investors in the company. >> right now, reaching out for
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them, they do not want to talk unless they have to do with a vote. engagedt we would be with them paired >> is their way to get the investors engaged earlier on corporate governance? >> devaluing the merits of the nominees that both sides put up. it is really over the past 20 years, and i think there is a compelling day for change. >> i mentioned you had said you see truman's opportunity for the stock. it is now trading in the low 70's, in line with the past five years. as recently as august, it was trading at $81. where should it be? >> we think it is 126, in line with most expectations. a tremendous amount of upside. if you read the reports, many
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analysts tagged discount on corporate governance among operating issues as well. 24 milesnter has across the u.s. it expanded to china and south korea. do you think this was the wrong move or bad timing? >> these are the best malls in the united states. these malls have been doing very well in terms of doing growing earnings. they will continue to. the first time they had up and running available for lease. unhappy with the extension, investors want to own the u.s. small. they do not want to own the asian malls. a company iny singapore that owns the malls. i think the south korea asset will be a great success. very similar to an we were
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involved with mgm. if you want to buy in las vegas, you want to buy in mgm u.s. >> america overall, over stored. they target high income properties high-end shoppers as well. will that catch up with them? on, a will want to try it $700 pair of shoes, tesla car, people want to go and feel in touch and try it on. there are not many of those malls in the u.s. they know they will get shoppers coming to them because of that activity within the centers. >> you have more than two decades of experience. what do you think people get wrong the most when it comes to investing in real estate? it is not a dividend yield or
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a bond substitute. they are growing the earnings in the stocks go up. faye are not bond substitutes. now where the stocks are going down because interest rates are going up, that will pass. it will pass and the stocks will come back and underlie the asset end of thebly by the year as investors realize this flowt a bond, it is a cash growing. >> of course, when you look at what has been going on today in the market, it is a blowout month and day for yields. i have it on my screen. you can see so far 450 $5 billion worth of deals are announced. roughly 6% of that in north
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america, up about 60% year-over-year. 20% of that was done in asia. the largest deal was when we were just talking about. at&t has purchased time warner twice the size1, of the next biggest deal. if you look at the chart that highlights the kinds of moves we have seen, you will see the number of deals has dropped off. but the value of the deals have increased. there are much bigger in value. >> it is amazing to see them overshadowed, the sheer size increasing. you get the sense they tend to be larger and lest strategic. cheap credit has a big part of it. >> momentum picking up in different sectors. quarter for, this is a big
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boost. start to a year that otherwise was little bit quieter and is now picking up. goless than four minutes to before the close. this is bloomberg. ♪
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anchor: we are moments away from
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the closing bell. .tocks advancing treasury dropping as economic data bolsters the case for higher rates this year. i am scarlet fu. anchor: and i am oliver running. live streaming on twitter. you can watch that every weekday from 4:00 to 5:00 p.m. eastern. scarlet: u.s. stocks start the week with gains. eight of 11 major groups in the s&p 500 rising with tech leading the way. oliver: i will start off with .ech in some sectors the nasdaq was doing pretty well today and led to gains up a full percent. it is leading the rest of the market. telecom down, obviously.
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at&t a little bit in the red group down on the day. a couple interesting stock picks that i saw were moving around a little bit. coca-cola volume was really high today. it was one of the most highly traded stocks in the market. boeing had interesting activity, open interest is pretty high. two-cola was trading at a standard deviation. a little bit of activity on those three stocks and then finally closing it out with volatility in general. we are now below, close right at 13%. volatility going down and starting to fade away a little bit. scarlet: take a look at some .ntraday strong manufacturing gauge hitting a one-year high, looking the week,he end of
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new speculation into what and when the fed will move. over spain and portugal, getting today as a bit of a risk off appetite hits the market. government political risk taken out of the equation. portugal reaffirmed the only bond rating agency still to have the government treasuries at investment grade would be a bit of a disaster. relief in the market in europe. you have seen a as well in terms of a little bit of a boosting of the risk. let us stay with him up and take a look at the euro, near a seven-month low versus the dollar. date, i should say, it has paired its gain to 0.1%. i am paying attention to emerging-market currencies. losing see the dollar
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against the brazilian currency. there is also a lot of anticipation of dollar inflows. i included the chinese offshore yuan. the new record to watch out for a 6.8. investors are taking more money out of the country so capital flight continues. bitcoin is up by 3%. at a three-month high and we might be seeing more trading demand for bitcoin as that capital flees china. anchor: it is falling to a five-week low. that is hurting a lot of folks because there was a sense that natural gas, we're heading into cooler weather, and it was time for them to back off, which they did at exactly the wrong time. it may not will here. the bears may be moved too fast. those are market minutes. -- meritrade said it would
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it combines two of the largest online brokerages. it met some scale at a time when small investors are moving away from stock trading. the td ameritrade president joins us. i want to start with the rationale for the deal. there is a real sense that that part of your business is under threat, that whether it is robo , you will face increasing pressure. was it that competitive pressure that drove this acquisition? we are finding that we are able to invest in all elements of our business, whether it be our robo platform in a few weeks or this particular deal with scott trade ttrade because it gives us an enormous amount of scale.
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there has been a lot of focus on the financial sector, especially in a lot of things who are try to figure out where they are going to get their revenue from. profits just shrink for you guys. ultimately, you are in that same kind of cool. where is money to be made in equity trading? how does this deal that you up to survive in that market? in the powerieve of american markets and not our business model is a great one. the deal gives us bigger scale. we add our 7 million clients account. we will have about $1 trillion in client assets when the deal closes and more importantly what td ameritrade has that the founder of scottrade recognized is that we have a number of platforms that are cutting edge that he would like to have but did not have the scale to be able to invest in. combined, we have lots of opportunities.
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overall, the brokerage industry is dealing with lower activity. his is a structural or cyclical issue? a structural or cyclical issue? cyclical. guest: guest cyclical. obviously, regulatory approval is pending and we would expect that to happen sometime in 2017, and we are confident they will give us a fair hearing. theer: with regards to structural versus cyclical, as more and more investors move in, they can buy the etf through the business. structural a impediments to the fees based income stream? bitt: it might be a little
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over time. that is one of the reasons we are adding other capabilities like our robo platform or our advice space businesses. this gives us a client base. what we find is that the tdma or to a client is similar to the scottrade client, but the market -- the td ameritrade client is scottrade the stoc client. we think we will have a better opportunity to provide more services to scottrade clients and therefore get more revenue streams. anchor: another big theme we are seeing out there is the enormous amounts of cash sitting on the sidelines. on my brokers earn interest on client cash. rock'sing to black whetherondering you are seeing something similar? retailif you look at our
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or institutional clients, on average, they see somewhere around 20% on hand in cash and our institutional client, it is half that. average, 15%. we have seen cash holdings go up a little bit as people have gone on the sidelines because it is down a little. one of the places the banks are still doing well is on the management side. how much is this strategy is about migrating even those low margin trading customers into the -- part of your business? guest: that is an opportunity for us. -- is a keyhat strategy for us. having an additional 3 million client accounts in order to offer the services that we already have, not with landing building out -- notwithstanding building out. anchor: you are acquiring the
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scottrade banks as part of this transaction. is that part of the deal or is there a strategic value as you roll that into your u.s. operations? guest: what has happened is that td ameritrade is buying the broker-dealer and we have partnered up with our major shareholder td bank. the major part of scottrade will be part of the td bank in the u.s. here. anchor: that is where i was referring to. was that an opportunistic transaction or strategically valuable platform to add to banking in the u.s.? guest: being a partner with us, they clearly find that their partnership with us and our partnership with them in terms of the ability to sweep our clients to the bank without having to be a bank ourselves is very advantageous and means we can keep less capital, and generate high cash returns to our shareholders. anchor: final question, do you
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see further consolidation in your industry? td ameritrade is still the most likely to acquire for e*trade. it postpones an eventual deal, does not derail one. what is your response? our belief is that the industry has been consolidating for some time and paused while, but might be picking up again. we have a lot to do to make sure we have a successful integration and our clients for both td ameritrade and scottrade are well served. oliver: when you talk about scaling up, not to be the horse, but when you cannot combine any more companies, where do you branch out in terms of asset classes to boost the income being lost as fees and. is it derivatives? more focus on those type of products question marks -- on those types of products? platformshave all the
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and technology and access to the right markets. where we have a bit of a cap is that we -- gap is that we continue with those advisory products. we see lots of growth opportunities going forward. anchor: great to have you with us. guest: thank you for having me. anchor: tim hockey. breaking news on fourth quarter earnings. it be the average analyst estimate. operating revenue of 4.2 5 4.25 billion. that represents a 19% increase in topline growth. looking back at the e.m. function on bloomberg, that looks to be the fastest pace on sales growth since 2010. is set is down, -- visa
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down. the for your outlook might be one reason why. before your outlook --the four-year outlook might be one reason why. anchor: there is some negative effects playing in here. these are pretty strong numbers that cross-border volume growth for visa. volume doess border not have the same punch. anchor: this is bloomberg. ♪
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anchor: i am mark crumpton. time now for first word news. hillary clinton is accusing trump of "basically declaring defeat." ms. clinton: he tweeted that the
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new effort underway to push the terrorists out of the key city mosul isa -- of already "a total disaster." he is basically declaring defeat before the battle has even started. he is proving to the world what it means to have an unqualified commander-in-chief. mark: the us-led coalition defensive to retake osumosul frm the islamic state -- donald trump is pledging to stand with the men and women of law enforcement. he says they have "not been appreciated by the current administration." he addressed two dozen rescue officers, saying that "every profession has a bad person, too much was made of isolated incidents of police misconduct."
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british police have arrested a man that forced the evacuation of 500 people friday. the 25-year-old man was charged with suspicion of using a noxious substance to caused serious damage and offense under britain's counterterrorism laws. he was released on bail after a three-hour investigation, the terminal was declared safe. i am mark crumpton. this is a bloomberg. scarlet? scarlet: thank you so much, mark. exportations are firming for the fed. guest sees a 65% chance of a rate increase in december. joining is now is laura rosner. she used to work in the market division of the federal reserve bank of new york. hawkishslightly more
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than market participants which are looking at a 61% chance of a rate hike in december. given that janet yellen had signaled she might be willing to let the economy run hotter, what makes you confident the fed will move in december? laura: i think it is raising the medication that has focused on a december hike. i would be careful about the "run it hot" language. that was discussed at the last meeting, but has not been formally been adopted. the fed is doing a blend of trying to run it talks, but moving near with gradual increases. an increasepreclude in december. if you look at their past, two hikes only in 2017 with an undershoot of unemployment. that is a pretty easy monetary policy stance. oliver: is running hot more sort of a semantic way for the fed to feel comfortable without really changing anything and making the hard call of the hike?
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or is there some kind of identifiable goals associated with that or changes to their method that we can actually see that they can deliver? laura: i think running it hot would mean allowing an overshoot on inflation and projecting an overshoot on inflation. right now, that is the missing ingredient in the fed's forecast. they have an undershoot of the unemployment. that is not a high-pressure economy, but the question is, are they leaning towards more of an overshoot on inflation and where will the discussions be going next year? i think that is what really will be key. anchor: what do you think the fed is most closely watching. watching?n -- what do we look at to say that this is the traction we are waiting for to get back to normal? laura: there are two big things i will be looking at closely in
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2017. what happens with inflation expectations now that energy prices are starting to move up? we know that they capitulated to the downside when energy prices collapsed. are we going to see the same dynamic on the way up, and if not, what does that imply for inflation? inflation?ed to core 2.2 -- core cpi is 2.2%. are we going to see those move higher and rise faster or are we going to see them kind of stuck at current levels? a lot of this depends on how strong you think the phillips curve is and how much supply there is in the labor market. the second thing i am watching is the participation rate. do we see evidence of that labor supply is actually expanding to accommodate demand? anhor: you noted that
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improved assessment of that supply-side of the labor market seemed to have motivated the fed to postpone a rate hike last time around. talk us through this. we have a chart that indicates the labor force participation rates between women of prime age versus men of prime age. that is detail of what is happening at the aggregate level which is that the participation rate has increased by 50 basis points. that is after a steady decline over the last prior to three years. what is happening? -- two to three years. what is happening? is expanding the labor supply. even though we are seeing pretty steady hiring, our supply is larger and can accommodate that demand and that is a good thing for the economy. it does not necessarily mean we are going to see inflationary pressures and that is what yellen has been focusing on. if that dynamic continues, i
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think there is more reason for be easyto potentially because it's up not necessarily mean high-pressure or an inflationary economy oliver:. oliver:when we look at the financial conditions in the u.s. and the global macro impact that in some sense, when you look at what happens with currency and what happens with the ability to access capital markets, it creates an environment that feels like a post interest rate hike environment. surrogatenk it is a in terms of the real practical impact? laura: we have seen that before, the effects of the fed hike before the fed has actually hiked. we are starting to see a little bit of tightening mainly the dollar. if you look at real interest rates, they are lower since my last -- high-yield credit spreads are more narrow. in general, i do not think we are seeing the effects of a full
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height being priced in, and that might reflect expectations for a very moderate path following the hike. if you only expect two hikes or less, that could be a pretty good environment for risk assets. anchor: that is what they need by the -- mean by the dovish hawk. dovish hike. thank you so much. falls to athe yuan record low as chinese policy makers signal greater flexibility. is that assuring investors in china? this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: i am scarlet fu, "what'd you miss?" deep dive into the bloomberg. reminder that you can find all of these chart using the function at the bottom of the screen. record a i inverted it's a when the line goes down, the one is -- inverted it so that when the ise goes down, the yuan inverted value. it is not inspiring panic like it did at the start of 2016. seems like global equities are handling it fine. it is the rate of change, not the magnitude of the move that makes people nervous. anchor: that is a chart that tells a clear story in terms of the direction. that does have pretty serious applications. oliver: not enough can be said
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about this. -- ay be case of signaling case of signaling. you are still devaluing the currency for the same reasons. scarlet: they need to boost their economy somehow. oliver: i will check out what is happening based on market cap, a great function on the bloomberg to look at what is happening in terms of comparing indexes. rgs is basically your function relative grass. i am looking at the s&p and the white line. these two lines -- oranges mid caps and yellow is small. it you are seeing a fairly novel outperformance by the small caps. if you just go and change and see what happens, the s&p catches up a little bit.
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it is never aware of a gap. narrower of a gap. anchor: just take a look at this, the market share and the change in market share of foreign bank at the ready and the financial markets inside china. you can see no traction at all. 2016 is tracking to be significantly below 2013, so we have already seen jpmorgan is, has announced it is pulling out to try to negotiate better terms and a new one. great opportunity that we are seeing has not so far materialized for foreign financials. anchor: you have to be patient when talking about the financial sector of china. all of the control and opportunity, why share any of the prophet? oliver: i clearly missed the memo on the china related charts. anchor: we will be back with more. -- it has been a
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busy day, but the question has been "what'd you miss?" this is bloomberg. ♪
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anchor: i am mark crumpton. it let us get to first word news. elizabeth moran warns donald trump that nasty women will come out in droves to help send a hillary clinton to the white house. she joined clinton in manchester, new hampshire. nasty women are tough. nasty women are smart. nasty women vote. warren said that mr. trump thinks because he is wealthy he can call women "bimbos." mr. trump suggesting democrats
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are making up "phony polls." he did not provide any evidence for his claim. most polls show trump losing nationally and in key battleground states. in oklahoma, a man hand continues for a suspect -- a manhunt continues for a suspect in a double homicide you also injured two police officers. one person was arrested but a second suspect identified as michael vance allegedly saw a patrol car and remains missing. north korean officials criticized efforts by the united nations to strengthen sanctions following the latest missile launches in september. the proposed sanctions are "criminal documents." they accuse the united states of all restraining be punishment. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more
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than 120 countries. i am marked crumpton. -- i am mark crumpton. scarlet: we did see gains in u.s. stocks, thanks in part to some big deals announced, and that is why technology shares were big winners while telecoms were the big losers. 0.5%&p gaining adjusted earnings per share was better than expected, but we did see revenue coming in at exactly where it was anticipated, and in terms of the outlook, some people are saying that missed analyst estimates. shares are down by 1.2% in after hours trading. t, and inflation break even. here to talk about the interaction of populism and the markets is --
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when we are talking about, there is so many nonfundamental influences on the markets these days, brexit been front and center, how do we therefore make forecast or try to understand directions when it is human and emotional and political as much as anything else? isst: part of this diagnostic, just looking at how different things interact with each other. what was interesting to me it was that in canada, earlier this year, when the canadian dollar rallied, you have theresa may at the conservative party conference saying you will have more fiscal expansion rates. instead, you had a selloff not just in pounds, but also in break evens and in gilts. this is a reflection of something else the market is factoring and, a shift of policies in the uk that make it less business friendly, more
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hostility with immigration. that kind of stuff worries markets. it is a worry about inflation, which is a replacement for the traditional worry about deflation. it depends on what kind of policy measures a particular government or political party proposes, and i think what happened is you have had a long spell of worries about deflation since 2008. because the markets have both fiscal and monetary expansion, and if that's the vitality -- it upsets the vitality. oliver: on that train of thought, if the sort of blip against globalization and the populism that has arisen over the past couple of years is more than just a blip and as a sort of a turning point, how do we rethink the assumptions of how the financial markets work and
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assets move across the borders if this is the beginning of something that is going to stick around for a while? mark: there are 2 -- karthik: there are two aspects of this. what this does, it limits the ability to import this inflation from the rest of the world. we are seeing a secondary di sinflationary trend. if you limit the ability of countries that have scarce resources to take advantage of resources from the rest of the world, you are going to get more inflationary pressure and i think that is something that is hanging in the balance. we will see if these forces take on more power now. anchor: if there is a theme to what has happened, brexit or some of the events in the u.s. political race, it is that it is
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an unfair scene and small, unpredictable place. brexit, you would have said is completely irrational and goes against everyone's interest, yet it happened anyway. how do you advise people where the unpredictable happens? preparedyou have to be for the likelihood that people may not necessarily appreciate the economics of the situation byt votes may be skewed political factors. you have to take into account going forward that public policy will be taking into account those sensitivities in and of itself, so even if you get past these political threats then future political policies will be more sensitive. anchor: how committed are populist politicians to their stated mandate? ,f the popular opinion turns
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for instance, and no one wants fiscal spending and they want to go back into austerity, do the politicians move with that? how nimble are they? are they committed to a path? karthik: in the case of brexit, you have a series of twists. claims she waso er went for a hard brexit. tore is a lot of sensitivity what the public wants and the public can also change its mind when he consequences are even more dire. that is the example of the government in greece where they campaigned and fought in one area about not giving into the dicta of the troika because it was clear the alternative would be even worse. oliver: i want to ask you about china because we have some
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charts up. i find it fascinating that there has been this continued devaluation of their currency. markets seem to be shrugging it off. what is behind that? it may not be particularly anything geopolitical and , butce, but -- in essence there is some thing about the signaling of the central banks, how they go about devaluing the currency. havets around the world not had the same reaction is time around. karthik: i heard you mention earlier that it is partly a function of the pace rather than the direction. i am also not sure i would characterize this as a devaluation per se. i think we are seeing in the remedy becoming a more currency. more --minbi becoming a currency. itthis context, i do think is important to think about a
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larger macro idea which is titans a weaker renminbi financial conditions in china ortiz is them. -- or eases them. it might have caused them to tighten financial conditions in the past. the large drawdown and reserves was to a large extent associated with a reduction of the natural position of chinese corporations and banks so that vulnerability to weaker renminbi has abated. you have had a large increase in outbound fdi. anchor: given the uncertainty in the world and all of the moving parts including weaker currencies everywhere, does it mean the fed has less control over the curve? will this remain a safe haven because of everything in the world? karthik: a method to get this major protectionist turn, which could change things over the medium-term. i think the fed, i think it
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considers the dollar a significant part of the u.s. monetary conditions. 10% in the currency is 1% in rates. it also views the dollar as affecting the rest of the world, not just through the trade channel, but the financial 10 a. a stronger dollar is seen as tightening financial conditions outside which] into the u.s.. i think all of those factors feed back into this dovish hike rhetoric we were talking about earlier. anchor: we will leave it here. thank you. coming up, apple ceo tim cook getting ready to report earnings tomorrow, with focus on the iphone. this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: i am scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" the company debuted the iphone 7, hoping new features will reverse trends its most important product. we dig into apple in today's "the numbers don't lie." bars show you revenue growth. i thought dropped 15% and iphone revenue dropped 23% from one year ago. ae of the drivers pushing decline in revenue is a lower asp, linked in part to the midrange iphone se. of average selling price was $600 in the third quarter of 2017. to it investors -- understand my investors fixate so much on this, --
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macintosh is only 11%. slows, applewth has launched new products which have the potential to generate sales long-term. one of them is the apple watch. it propelled apple into the .arket lead in smart watches you can see a pretty steep drop-off, but nevertheless huge miles away ahead of the competitors. pledging service -- fledgling service for apple's apple pay. it faces stiff competition. $210 billion in u.s. mobile transactions by 2019. there was a record crackdown in august when the european commission ordered that the company pay as much as $14.5 billion. ireland illegally slashed apple's tax bill. likely affect earnings. the ruling is not going to leave
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apple sort of money. apple has in excess of $200 billion in cash on its balance sheet, most of it overseas. that allows tim cook to focus on growing the iphone sales and diversifying its business. we will be all over apple's results when they cross after tuesday's closing bell. oliver: lots of questions about apple so let us go to alex webb in san francisco. how significant is this set of earnings we are going to be looking at? when they release a new iphone, apple publishes the first sales numbers. they have not done that this time around. this is going to be the first opportunity that investors get to have a really substantiated insight into how -- substantive insight. on the other level, the expectations of the iphone 7 are not colossal. the assumption is that it will be more of a bridge products
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ahead of the more substant ive product next year. anchor: how important is that going to be in terms of delivering something solid that investors can get a grip on to understand what it would mean for revenue and profit? alex: as you pointed out, the means, the by no greater share of the revenue. the services business is a lot faster growing then macs right now. it could give them a bump heading into next year, for enterprise and artsy customers. argument could be made that the mac is really a rounding error for the iphone sales. anchor: the iphone 7, incremental changes. in the same quarter, samsung had
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a lot of promise with its galaxy note 7. is it possible that we are going to see actually much better quarter for apple when it comes to iphone 7 than what we have been led to believe? alex: i think at this stage it is going to be too early. apple will however give a forecast for their first fiscal quarter, calendar quarter, three months till christmas. for will give expectations that and people will be listening very carefully i think comparison. fundamentally, the iphone 7 was released mid-september, so it really only had two weeks of sales before the window shut on that quarter. oliver: this may not be directly addressed in the earnings, but at the onset of the iphone 7, i was shocked that there was no microphone jack. people do not mind, but are we going to get some input on why iphone?re buying the
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is it going to be some of the new were adjustments they have made or is it as you say, prepping them for whatever the next stage is? alex: fundamentally, there is going to be a lot of expectation that it is to do with cycles of when people's phone contracts are coming up for renewal. a lot of people i know anecdotally said "i want to get a new phone and the iphone is probably the best out there. i guess i will have to suck it up and deal with a lack of an iphone gap -- lack of a micro phone jack." people are more willing to make the sacrifices. anchor: one closely watched place is services revenue. are we looking for anything big fair? alex: i think pokemon go is going to be interesting here because that will have driven a certain amount of growth there. it has been growing 20% year on year in each quarter so far this
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year and pokemon go will likely help it do that. yet again, although it is high-margin, the real selling point of the services business is not the revenue that it generates but the way it makes it harder for you to turn it i your iphone -- to turn in your iphone for something competitive. you have all of your music, contact data, and files into ios , and that is hard to put it onto and i -- an android. alex webb, thank you so much. good luck tomorrow. anchor: coming up, trump's new approach to a common campaign theme. we will tell you about his latest accusations. this is bloomberg. ♪
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anchor: "what'd you miss?" donald trump accused democrats of manufacturing fake polls that show him trailing in the presidential election. using twitter, he said "major story that the dems are making up phony polls and order to suppress the trump. we are going to win." in a new abc poll, clinton is leading trump i-20 points. other widely accepted points have shown trump trailing badly. begin?here to when he is talking about "phony polls" here what exactly is he trying to accomplish? is he tried to convince people who are thinking about leaving his camp? what is the mindset behind this? guest: i love this so much. president obama and his
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opponent, hillary clinton have pointed out that when you are losing a game what do you do? you claim the game is rigged against you and accuser opponents of cheating, so it looks like that is what is going on here. he presented no evidence whatsoever that any of the polls are being manipulated, that they are "dark," or "phony." they are run by media organizations anyway, not be democratic party. i do not know any major reputable poll connected to the democratic party, such a claim that the party is somehow reading them without ever -- rigging them without evidence is outlandish. anchor: it would be amusing if it was not also frightening. the undermining of the legitimacy of the process and the strength of the feeling that his supporters could add up to some pretty negative stuff. how do you, how did the democrats manage through that so that they do not face an
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insurgency on november 9? alex: there has been some reporting that hillary clinton's campaign is figuring out what to do if trump refuses to concede. he said he will respect the results of the election as long as everything looks kosher. he joked at first, as long as he winds, but i think it was clear he was joking. i think some of this is overstated. i do not think there will be riots in the streets or a march on washington if trump uses the election. i think most americans will accept the results despite him encouraging them not to. quickly, obama is campaigning for clinton. he is hurt surrogate. not just for clinton, that he is her surrogate -- he is her surrogate. not just for clinton, but those down ballot. referendum one a trump as opposed to the actual politician running for office?
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alex: it is a referendum on how long trump's coattails are, his negative coattails. when he loses this election, the real question is whether the to him ornfined whether it spread broadly to members of his hearty. that is what democrats are counting on in these down ballot races. oliver: that is alex wayne with bloomberg news in washington. anchor: coming up, what you need to know to gear up for tomorrow's trading day. this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: "what'd you miss?" u.s. stocks rose. we saw the technology shares leading the way, but the telecoms were the big laggards here in today's trading.
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it gets us started on a week in which we kick off with games, especially with big earnings reports this week. oliver: much-needed when it has been a fairly flat market. green on-screen probably good. today's big carter has yet to pass regulatory approval. there are a number of big mergers already on the books that are approval pending. there is a lot of data including consumer confidence and that is out at 10:00 a.m. anchor: we are also watching mario draghi, the ecb president giving a speech at 11:30 a.m. eastern. we will tell you what he said, if anything about the direction of monetary policy in the eurozone. oliver: there will be a lot of eyes and ears on that. i am looking at lots of -- tomorrow. apple after the u.s. closing bell, you have dupont, chrysler,
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margaret: morgan john are on the trail in ohio with vice president biden. -- mark and john are on the trail. a new poll has clinton leading trump a narrower margin than in recent polls. voting kicking off in florida, texas and other states, hillary clinton and donald trump are shifting to the final phase of the c


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