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tv   Bloomberg Markets Middle East  Bloomberg  November 20, 2016 11:00pm-12:01am EST

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♪ manus: oil on the rise amid optimism that reducers will clinch an agreement on output cuts. leaders talkm trade and say protectionism ust not threaten global links. posts a surplus, imports falling faster than exports. >> donald trump's team beginning
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to take shape. manus: it is just 8:00 a.m. across the emirates, 4:30 a.m. and in london. . am manus cranny >> what is catching your eye this morning? that: the first thing catches my eye is that it is 4:00 a.m. in london, not 4:30 a.m., and angela merkel is going to the polls again, nicolas sarkozy is out, and italy gets ready to go to the polls. what does it mean for the markets? should we read brexit for the euro currency? politics is the new economics. the a tying bond has lost 3%, hasit is the euro that
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taken the crushing. never mind bond vigilantes. that really traders happened. that is what is moving markets as we run up to the referendum. there is a load of views in terms of what happens next. will italy represent a big fx for traders? the market is preparing for that. you say, key european elections going into 2017. in the meantime, i assume we will get more clarity in terms of policies out of the trump administration, but another number of analysts saying this is the new paradigm. fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investment are driving this trump trade. mumbai online for 20 minutes come off by .2%. the rallyin a share, continues, another leg up, hong
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, but the conviction is in the japanese markets, the nikkei and the topix in broad territory. expectations of profit, eight dollar-ascendancy story. how about things where you are, manus? manus: we are just a few hours away from the start of trade. at the g 6200, off .1% yesterday. some of this comes from the reverberations coming out of abu dhabi, down the most in a month as three banks had been speculated to be getting together. we will talk about that later in the day. down .1%.l
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the uae, we are looking at interest rates at the highest since july 2012. oil is on the move, and that will reset the tone in our middle east markets as we get into the trading day. those are the markets, some first word news headlines. good morning. >> good morning. japanese exports fell further than expected in october. , imports dropped 10.3% plunged 16.5%. exports to china were down 9%, while u.s. shipments fell more than 11%. the u.k. chancellor has warned businesses that they faced two years of uncertainty and ahead of the countries to parch or from the eu.
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philip hammond will deliver his fiscal statement on wednesday, facing a potential hit from brexit that has seen him abandon the goal of a balanced budget by 2020. ernst & young says global growth will trim revenue. sydneyesorts is lower in , down .2% on reports that three australian employees have been formally arrested in china. and 13 otherralian china-based staff are also in custody. 18 staff have been held over a ledge it gambling related crime since october. one person was freed on bail. it is not clear what charges they face. donald trump has described a former marine corps general as the real deal has he considers more picks. the former head of central command is in the running to become defense secretary. mitt romney appears to be leading the race for secretary
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of state. the attack donald trump during the campaign, describing him as a bully and fraud. three men with wall street experience join the president-elect, and wilbur ross may be on the shortlist for treasury or commerce secretary. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. was a international trade key focus at the aipac meeting that wrapped up a few hours ago in lima. resistup said it would protectionism and rollback measures that could weaken trade. we have been wrapping all of this up what came out of the meeting? rosalind: in a statement pledge tohe leaders expand economic cooperation and continue work on a free trade area for the asia-pacific region based on existing agreements. thatalso expect
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protectionist or trends will get in the way of achieving those goals. this comes as the growing mood of action is him, especially after donald trump was selected mood fromand the that. he said he will tear up trade agreements that don't help the u.s. economy and wants to protect u.s. workers from agreements that are destroying their jobs. we have seen china asserting itself. pushing itshance of own partnership through. we see during the summit the emergence of china trying to assert itself when it comes to global trade. barack obama also had a brief meeting with vladimir moved to -- vladimir putin at the apec, do we have detail on
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that? rosalind: they met for about four minutes. according to obama, they discussed syria. it was the first meeting since donald trump was elected the incoming president of the u.s. vladimir putin to negotiate a peaceful settlement to the syrian war and put in place a cease-fire in ukraine. obama did say his prognosis for the situation in syria was not optimistic. he said that russian and syrian intervention had stymied any hope for peace, but also repeated his belief that the u.s. did not have any legal basis for military intervention there. also seenma has relationships with russia and vladimir putin falling to lows butseen in many decades, president elect donald trump has suggested that the relationship
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between him and russia could be better when he becomes president. on trump tolled stand up to vladimir putin. he also did say that people should take a wait and see approach to donald trump, saying the policies that donald trump will bring in may not be the same as he said during the campaign. this is what he had to say. >> i cannot guarantee that the president-elect won't pursue some of the positions that he , but what i can guarantee is that reality will force him to adjust how he approaches many of these issues. is just the way this office works. whether trade or
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syria, many nations around the world are waiting to see what will happen when donald trump becomes president and whether he follows through on his rhetoric before he became elect. manus: indeed. thank you very much. joining me now in dubai is the founder and ceo of aberdeen the management. you are opening a new office in abu dhabi, but first, we spoke to you on the morning of win donald trump won. your take on you have known him for a number of years. >> i spoke to him briefly on friday after he was. totill think he was elated have been elected. i spoke to him for about 10-15 minutes. he said with about two weeks to go, he thought he could win, which probably was at odds with
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when i met him earlier in the year when he was over in scotland. i suspect then that he probably he not expect to win, but elated andly surprised i think as well it how many world leaders had phoned him up. he mentions specifically the king of saudi arabia had phoned, and he is very accessible, as you know, and a good businessman. manus: you are scheduled to have a meeting with him. by then we will probably know who is the treasury secretary, will ross, david mccormick. what will you talk to him about us. we are hearing about dodd-frank being rolled back, the vocal lker rule being changed. golfhave known him through
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mainly. greg norman had introduced a world leader to him, and greg norman said he was -- he counted him as a friend. would youd to him, mind if i dropped in to see you when i was in new york, and he said he would be delighted to i will seei think where it goes. no specific subject really. you have said before that you think he will make a good president. you have said you think you think he will be good for business. could you expand on why you hold these views, and the market seems to think trump the candidate will be different from trump the president, do you think that is the case as well? politicians, you have got to see what they do,
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not what they say. a presidential campaign, and we saw that in brexit as well. i would say he is a good is this men, pragmatic, and yeah, i think he will deal with the issues that confront him, and to a certain degree i agree with what president obama was saying, which is the reality of the office will make him adapt, and i think he will adapt. he's: it looks as if trying to draw on wall street veterans, wilbur ross, david mccormick, jonathan grave. is that the most important appointment, and does that feel you with hope that we are going with wall street veterans? good if heit will be chooses someone with experience, not necessarily wall street businesse, but
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experience. it is in his nature. he is a property developer at heart, so i think he will borrow and invest in the infrastructure, and i think that is what the world needs. i hope you will do that. manus: stay with the spirit we have more to get through. we will have more discussion with martin gilbert, including whether we are entering a new world order for banks and interest rates. haidi: later in the show, look at why israel is hoping a donald trump administration will signal a change in direction on iran. this is bloomberg. ♪
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manus: welcome back. you are watching bloomberg. i am manus cranny. haidi: i am haidi lun in hong kong. ground, stocks gaining
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reversing a week of losses. gainingghai composite .9% while the hang seng indexes up .25%. we saw this recent rally in chinese stocks. anelists saying we might see the shanghai composite reach 3500 by the end of this year. one of the few markets in the -- kospi. cost be facing president park impeachment. up surprising, the nikkei .7% due to a weaker yen story. the yen has been plummeting a can's the dollar. the nikkei already entered bull market territory. topix gaining 1% and closing the session higher. we could see the topix gaining 20% and entering the bull
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market, but some people saying this really has no legs because the rally and japanese stocks is not a japan-fueled story, it is a global growth story and a strong u.s. dollar story. the yen weakening again, trading at 111.14. manus: thank you very much. still with us is martin gilbert, founder and ceo of aberdeen asset management. one thing the presidential election did his move inflection -- inflation expectations to the highest. at inflation expectations, i have to hand it to donald trump. he has managed to do for inflation expectations what all the qe and the world has not done. have we moved far too fast and far too aggressively without a dollar spent? >> i think so.
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but markets go on expectations, so i think what he has achieved is good, even though single-handedly achieved what no other central banker has managed. i think it is more perception of what he will do. i think that is good for it i think he will borrow a bit more and invest a bit more, and that is what the world needs. i think qe has not worked the way the central bankers thought with that being at the level it is, i would the borrowing 30-year, 40-year, 50 your money and investing. haidi: this is what the markets needed, yield back, volatility back, but he has done nothing -- said very little sense since his election win, so our markets getting ahead of and what is the risk of correction if the reality does not meet up to the
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expectations? >> i think we needed a bit more the yield curve. it was killing savers at the moment. i think this is actually good, but i think your point is he said very little is very pertinent. i think it does show that the rhetoric in the election is not the real donald trump. he is thoughtful, and i think he would change his rhetoric and change what he's going to do now that he has won the presidency. manus: one thing that struck me is that ireland has issued 100-year dawns. -- bonds. do you think that is legitimate, let's go for 50 year bonds, 100 year bonds in the united states of america? about the united
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states of america, but banks should be issuing debt at these historically low interest rates. buye are people who want to them to match liabilities. if i was a central bank governor, i would be issuing as long day to do debt as i possibly could. haidi: martin, you said emerging markets are doing just fine, some flows coming back in, but we have seen them come none are -- come under pressure. a part of that protection this story, and inward looking u.s., if it does come to fruition, are you still constructive on emerging markets, and if so, which ones? should we be looking at markets that have internal demand rather than ones that are so much more vulnerable to the global economy? >> yes, starting with your last question first, we still like india because of the internal story, but again because there
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are some very good companies there that we have invested in. again, i think the protectionism in the u.s. will be more difficult to achieve then perhaps people think. if he does go for a tax cut to boost the economy, they will spend, and that will bring imports into the u.s. him a bech should theoretically good for emerging markets, so i'm not as negative as a lot of people. i have to be positive on emerging markets. if i am not, no one will be. i think they are fine and the growth is still there. haidi: stay with us, martin gilbert one of explaining after the break his strategy, why he for the newbu dhabi middle east headquarters. this is bloomberg. ♪
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manus: still with us is martin
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gilbert, founder and ceo of aberdeen asset management, a man who understands market moves more than anybody else. let's talk about the dollar. it is linked to your business. election, the timeline, the dollar rocketing higher versus the yen, the best two weeks since 1988, up against the meridiana --euro for 10 straight sessions. the fed will hike. what you think this does potentially to 2017 for fed hikes and the consequences for emerging markets? >> let's see whether the fed hikes in december. the overriding perception seems to be they will. i was more cautious after the election because i thought they might wait and see, but with the markets bouncing the way they have done, i don't see any reason why they shouldn't. i suspect they don't want to
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hike too much next year, but they are in a difficult position. if they don't hike, people think they know something we all don't , so they will be cautious i think. dollar shouldthe not strengthen too much because it makes it more difficult for their exports etc.. it should help emerging markets, because it should be cheaper for them to export to the u.s. again, we come back to emerging markets going to do well at next year. haidi: staying on message, the dollar story, the bond story, but we have to talk financials. this rally we have seen globally has been something. does that have much further to go? >> i would not have thought so. i am cautious on levels of markets.
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generally, i like equities compared to government bonds, but a lot is priced in. i think that is because this wall of liquidity out there with nowhere else to go. again, if bond yields do go up, we should see some switch back into credit or bonds if we do see a hike next year in those asset classes. quick question, the peso took all the battering in the emerging markets space. equal.e not all created who is most honorable next year? ,> it is definitely mexico because the perception is they will be the hardest hit if there is protectionism, and 40% of their exports do go to the u.s., but in terms of a country, definitely india.
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india bonds are still yielding 6% or 7%. still powering ahead of all the other emerging markets. manus: wow, x1 has netflix? hey, drop a beat. ♪ show me orange is the new black ♪ ♪ wait, no, bloodline ♪ how about bojack, luke cage ♪ oh, dj tanner maybe show me lilyhammer ♪ ♪ stranger things, marseille, the fall ♪ ♪ in the same place as my basketball? ♪ ♪ narcos, fearless, cooked ♪ the crown, marco polo, lost and found ♪ ♪ grace and frankie, hemlock grove, season one of...! ♪
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haidi: it is 12:30 a.m. in hong kong. sophie: these are the first word headlines. iranding gains after signals opec will agree to a supply cut deal and iraq will offer new proposals. told the market that it is highly probable. has been complicated by iran's commitment to boost production and iraq's request for an extension. global trade in fear of protectionism were the main themes of the apec summit in peru. president obama said the world must resist the isolationist
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policies put forward by donald trump. trumpaland said donald could not be allowed to put the brakes on economic integration. -- someech is buying entech is buying lifelock for $2.8 billion, $24 per share. lifelock had been pursued by other bidders. the shares have risen 45% this year, giving it a market value of almost $2 billion. to seek akel is fourth term in office, saying her experience will help in what she calls exceptionally difficult times. she will attempt to retain the position of christian democrats leader, then contest federal collections next fall. angela merkel is germany's first female chancellor, and president obama has called her his closest international partner. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg.
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manus: still with us is martin gilbert, the founder and ceo of aberdeen asset management. we said at the star a show, pitching your flag in abu dhabi. it reminds me so much of singapore. and 1992, almost 25 years ago, and it has been such a success story am a but this is just like those days. we were one of the first fund managers to go there. general said to me, you are the first big fund manager to come to abu dhabi. i would like to stress that we did not do it on any sort of incentives. we made a decision that that is where we wanted to be based away .rom the noise of dubai
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we chose abu dhabi on merit. haidi: if you are looking at other areas where you are planning to pitch your flag, are you looking elsewhere at all? yeah, i think the obvious area for us is china, shanghai. we would obviously like to be bigger in china. we have not done a joint venture there. we have the first wholly-owned enterprise in china, so a big focus over the next few years will be pitching are flagged there in shanghai, moving more because it is such a vast market, you can't ignore china. got back from
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saudi arabia last week, when you look at the saudi story and the desire to bring in inward investment, what kind of discussions have you said there. give me your impression. arabia is aaudi great economy. i think they are struggling with the lower oil price and the cost of running the country, but they are doing all the right things. they are trying to get that budget deficit down, and as you say, become more self-sufficient in inward investment. saudi aramco is going to be a very big deal when it comes, but the obvious successor is dominated by the sovereign wealth funds, and to a certain extent there are clients down here. one of the reasons we have opened here is too broad and a client base in deeper into the various countries, and eventually invest in these. we are ready do, but perhaps
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launch a local fund to broaden our relationship down here. martin, the number of years of severe outflow pressures. you said you had a lot of buying interest in aberdeen, but said you weren't interested at that point in selling. have you had more interest, and what is your position on that? --we have never had any sorry, i have to choose my words very carefully here. i think there was a rumor that we were wanting to be sold. that.lutely refute we value our independence, and think it is a massive advantage to be independent, so it is of no interest to us to be bought. obviously we are one of the largest independent asset managers in the world outside the u.s., so we are in a strong position.
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being independent really does matter to us. you witheasure having us, martin gilbert, founder and ceo of aberdeen asset management. rising, and increased optimistic sentiment that a deal could be reached before the end of the month after iran and iraq signaled they may be moving towards an agreement on output cuts. let's get more from tokyo. we hear this sort of rhetoric and the way it drives oil prices up in the days leading up to meetings like this a lot. has anything changed since driving this latest rebound? seeing onyou are we'll, particularly from early the next -- last week. brent closer to $47, but what driving that is statements from oil ministers over the weekend, opec member
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countries, the iranian oil minister says it is highly probable that opec will release -- reach a supply deal to limit supplies. tore was a separate report the iraqi oil minister is going to offer three new proposals this week, both of those are seen as pretty optimistic statements. that, you had russian president vladimir putin say that he sees no obstacles to a supply deal. opec, is not a member of but they have tentatively agreed to be a part of this deal and are willing to freeze production at current levels, so there seems to be optimism coming from these oil ministers. we will have to see if they can put that into writing and actually everyone agree to cut supplies at the meeting november 30. the question is where all these cuts will come from.
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the iranians have proposed three different options. there is a shift in terms of confidence. is the burden still going to fall to saudi arabia? yeah, that's the big question, right? the devil is always in the details. the big question is where these cuts are going to come from. a lot of countries have been asking for exemptions. iraq has asked for one because they want the money to continue fighting islamic militants. iran is returning to global markets after sanctions were lifted in january, and they have been boosting production all year. what has changed is a new sense of urgency. saider this month, the iea that if opec does not cut, we will enter a fourth year where supply outpaces demand. that is what is at stake here. we will have to see if countries are willing to cut, but we will not know that until november 30.
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manus: manus: thank you very much for the update. our energy markets editor giving us the latest on the machinations of the oil market. pressure on the president of south korea after prosecutors said that she did play a role in peddling influence and access. our bureau chief joins us now. president park is accused of collusion, and her close allies have been indicted. a it looks as if we have hearing problem with peter. manus: we will return to that story in terms of the potential political pressures. in the meantime, what have we got planned? haidi: coming up next, plans for more financial mergers in abu dhabi, the details up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: welcome back.
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you are watching bloomberg. i am haidi lun in hong kong. manus: i am manus cranny in dubai. pressure on the president of south korea after prosecutors said she did play a role in pedaling influence and access. collusion,ations are and some of her close allies have already been indicted. give us an update here at -- update. yesterday, her longtime friend was indicted, as two former aides. friend was charged with coursing businesses to donate to foundations that she controlled. the allegation is that she siphon that money for her own personal use. one of the former aides as well as another one for sharing classified documents. in the indictment, the more
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interesting element that is making the news is of course that the prosecutor has alleged that the president had played a major role in this extortion scheme. the allegation is that she basically pressured major companies, for instance samsung and hyundai, to donate tens of millions of dollars, a total of 65 million dollars, to two foundations that she controlled. it is a scandal not going away. what are the chances that she could actually be impeached? every day, the chances are increasing, particularly because of the indictment yesterday. gaining.ntum is the opposition party leaders are meeting today to talk about what will be the next step in the in pitchman proceedings. this is going on -- in the
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proceedings. this is going on is the president is digging in, saying she will not resign, going about her normal business as president. she has been out making appointments, naming ambassadors , so it sounds like it is going to be a long haul. haidi: the latest in this leadership scandal engulfing south korea. benchmark led declines on sunday. we are live at the abu dhabi general markets. somethinge have had of a turnaround when it comes to the markets. >> that's right. let me cfi can walk you through the events. a lot has happened on the ground .n abu dhabi on wednesday, reports there could be further consolidation in the uae financial sector. we had an out for that banking
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acronyms mentioned. that sent shares soaring on wednesday. the adx was up about 3%, then on sunday, shares were suspended in three of those banks pending some statements, and when the statements came out, they were disappointing for investors hoping for more evidence of mergers among banks. banks saying they had no knowledge of any forthcoming plans for mergers. down 1.7 shares percent yesterday, so a turnaround in sentiment in the uae. manus: good to see you this morning. what is next on the consolidation story? bank,e had the first gulf one big move, but is this consolidation story completely off the table? the big question. the future of these particular banks is uncertain. tendsidation in the uae
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to happen from the top down at the the has to of certain government and authority figures, so we could see something happen on those banks. and particularly in the financial sector, the uae has 50 different vendors for 9 million people, so speculation about consolidation is part of an efficiency drive in the midst of low oil prices is with us. for thatine consolidation can be quick, as that merger with due to complete in march next year. of the biggest mergers by assets in history could finish even sooner, so when the switch is flipped so to speak, it can happen quickly, but we need to wait and find out and see. manus: thanks a million. .ive in abu dhabi will we see more consolidation in the future?
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the managing director and head of equity research -- what do you make of it? three very aggressive moves by three banks, then these negative statements that came out yesterday. is this the quashing of mergers and acquisitions. give me your latest impression of the next move. >> we don't think so. in fact, we never read too much into denials about mergers, often happen after all. they probably concluded that there are very strong merits for such a move. the only thing is there has not the twoement between banks. the smoochinted out, tended to be decided at the highest level in the uae, so
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that does not have to mean that we don't see a deal. our central scenario is they will buy them in the next 12-18 months. deal ind there not be a the short-term? it could be so that there would be already two banks in a merger process. of let'stake the view and and see for one merger let's see how they are progressing, do they take the ball are not, do they focus too much on in turn told -- internal integration than external growth? i think that is a shortsighted attitude. anhink you have to provide answer to this powerful merger that combines together 25% market share. combination is still a week
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answer to this massive megamerger. manus: it probably makes sense. this takes me to the point that you have 23 banks in the uae. they all making sufficient amounts of money or is there a case to say we have too many banks on a per capita basis and it is just too many? >> exactly. there is no justification at all for these independent banks whatsoever. markets,ok at bigger say in the western world, they would be small players. one is trading at half the price of book. some shareholders are not happy with management. the shareholder structure is supportive in controlling both the banks, and the market share would drop to a more respectable 15%, which is like a minimum to get the efficiency drive. b's balance sheet is
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under levered, that will drive shareholder returns and dividend sales to the shareholders, so there is a lot to be said. ratherl prices are 50 than 100, it makes a difference for shareholders. manus: it does not seem like there are strong structural reasons that these mergers need to happen at this point. indi: is there a worst-case error are when we see the consolidation trend not take place in the industry, either systemic issues? >> systemic is a big question. there is some move against very big -- too big to fail banks, thethese banks would not those banks. they would be domestically systemic. highero have a 1%
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capital charge. or not talking about global systemic banks that require a 4.5 percent surcharge, so that is taking away the megamergers we would see in the u.s. this is the mystic mergers that make sense and create a scale in the national region on the regional level. manus: in terms of bad loans, you mention oil at $50. gettingious story is opec to do a deal and put a floor in the market. our bad loans going to peak this year? which you agree with that? carry intok we will 2017 and see a higher spike? >> we will be staying at these levels in my mind.
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for a couple of banks, we probably have gone beyond the peak. we think we will probably have the same level of provisioning for the banking sector. we are seeing margins come down a little bit, so higher funding costs are difficult to pass on to their clients, so we have a little bit of pressure and continued elevated provisioning. still, the banking sector is making a 11%, 12% on equity, not extremely high growth, but an environment in which you can contemplate mergers. or 12% is something that european bankers dream of as a return on equity. thank you for joining us. up, israel looking for a change in u.s. foreign-policy, but can donald trump provide that opportunity? this is bloomberg. ♪
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manus: welcome back. you are watching bloomberg. i am manus cranny in dubai. haidi: donald trump selection has created global uncertainty. for some, it is an opportunity. israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu will be hoping for a shift in u.s. policy, particularly iran. i'm middle east government reporter has more from tel aviv. what does benjamin netanyahu want from trump when it comes to a policy on iran? >> first of all, netanyahu wants trump to see iran as part of the problem in the middle east, rather than the solution to the problems of the middle east. so that is the first thing that netanyahu once for him to do, to do a total shift of approach, because obama saw iran as part
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of the solution and tried to give iran incentives to behave and to act in accordance with the u.s. expectations, and that's why we saw that nuclear total 180srael once a shift on how the u.s. approaches iran. what about the palestinians? what is their position? netanyahu will get all of his ducks in a row and meet with trump, but what is the palestinian side of this? what are they saying? >> the palestinians are quite concerned. inmp has said various things terms of his foreign-policy, but one of the things he said is is notrael -- that he going to pressure israel and that a settlement should become that come between two banks states.
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bey believe there should international pressure on israel: that's why the palestinians have been promoting the french peace initiative that would have foreign countries placing pressure on them to come together, so the palestinians are concerned that trump is going to move the israeli embassy to jerusalem from tel aviv, something that has not been done even though other presidential candidates have promised that in campaigns before. they are concerned that donald trump will take a harder line and ignore their interests, and they are threatening to take stronger action in the united nations that will make the life of the nine states and israel harder, so we will have to see how this plays out and who donald trump names as in bassett are and who his key nominations are in this regard will be. haidi: thank you so much for that. another policy uncertainty with the trump government.
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that is it for me on "blommberg markets: middle east". manus: it has been a pleasure as always.
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♪ >> here is an update of the top stories. the asia-pacific summit was in peru. americat obama said must resist isolation of policies touted by donald trump. south korea's president may be close to impeachment. havetion of lawmakers sided with the opposition and say it is time for her to step down. this comes after prosecutors say she did play a role in and influence peddling scandal. cyber


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