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tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  November 28, 2016 3:30pm-5:01pm EST

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>> around 9:52 a.m., the emergency dispatch got a report that vehicle struck pedestrians. called out that shots were fired. he engaged the suspect after hitting pedestrian. the suspect cut multiple individuals. the officer engaged the suspect. killed the suspect.
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a joint investigation by the for and the organization chemical weapons has concluded the syrian government forcers were behind three attacks involving chlorine gas. responsible. was syria denies chemicals as weapons. themayor of london says city have stay strong providing taken to brexit talks. >> and islamic state was the
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reason. syria denies chemicals as weapons. and the mayor of london says the city will stay strong, providing talk is provided. access and easy access to foreign talent must be retained. britishging the government to relieve short-term uncertainty over present. saying it is hard for companies to make decisions.
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global news, 24 hours a day, powered by over 2000 journalists. i'm horny college and this is bloomberg. what you miss, canadian consumer confidence is housing the economy. earlier today, addressing canada' economic struggles and the country's turn away from peel. toronto, amanda? with,: i want to start you can close to cutting interest rates. since then, we have seen additional weakness. to usoes that suggest about what you're thinking is at this moment in time. it is true that you are in a couple of pockets of weakness. that is part of the expectation,
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we have a very strong q3, q4 is going to be a little soccer. we should be aware of the pattern and not be too much into it. i think we are averaging around 2% growth in these two quarters. until we see are waiting that is different from that, i think we are on track. >> we have seen this trump trade going on. we have seen yields moving higher. some of that may be coming off a bit here. does that change the calculus of a central banker and where our rates should go. our calculus.ndex some of that was built into our expectations. normalization. of sot comes to the time many other moving parts, we put that into context with the
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starting point and with other things that are happening. that won't be until we do a full exercise in january. for the decision next week, we will bring all of those things together and -- expectations, are fundamental? coming from a president that is not in office yet? >> that is the way we would treated. for now it is a have a clinical. there is no shock to go with that market reaction at this stage. for our own purposes, we only incorporate policy changes. being, which sent to wait and see like everyone else. owners don'tnk like to make anything on speculation but this is a president-elect that had said some other things. it would concern anybody who had looked at the economy.
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cane is central to what drive our growth. are you wearing? worried? worried, just business sentiment in general. alvin's we talked to before and after are uncertain about the future. i respect that. that uncertainty can weigh on decision-making before decisions are even taken. as people saw this collection unfolding, there were a lot of uncertainty about investment decisions. i think we will have to wait a little longer to understand that and continue to read sentiment. no doubt, the uncertainty level remains high. a negativity out there. it does affect investors
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willingness to invest. all we i stable course? i don't think it is our job to blow sunshine at the market. i think it is our job to sort out things. and to help find the true underlying narrative and help people understand so they can make a clear decision or the business. same.siness is the they all have different things that they need to know. when there is this many things moving at the same time, some of the banks, we will help them sorted out. >> one of the things you are trying to sort out was where and how this stimulus would show up in the economy. adequately delete start pricing this and? are we seeing it yet? >> it very hard to tell at this point.
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it took several months to set up all the agreements. in that case, the kind of boostng is designed to the growth rate of the economy. we are less concerned about the immediate stimulus spending long-term effects. if it takes a little longer to do it right, that is perfectly fine. the other thing we are monitoring closely is how consumers react to the childcare advocates. are showing signs in the early retail sales data. it looks like this week we will get national counts. that will help us understand that for the third quarter. the fourth quarter will really tell the tale. asfor a while it seemed though you are calling on the federal government to do the job. you do not want to do it monetarily. do we need to be severely weaker
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to where we are now to consider the other options at your disposal? look for inflation, it is not about the economy being weaker, a quest that are connected. right now, it looks like we can have inflation back at target. there will be around the middle of 2018. that is a reasonable timeframe. require for us to have a significant departure in that outlook. such as we had in the oil price shock. it was very clear that we would underperform that target then and we moved accordingly. calculushe kind of which must go on. it depends on the economy. >> one of them that has happened, is that oil story. taking a big chunk out of the economy here. are you trying to construct
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policy around that? how does it change the thinking about what we need to do to get this economy whole again -- whole again? in this context, what it means is the economy must adapt to that lower price. we will see much lower growth, we will see negative growth for the time being. after that, a slower track. is thatare watching for rotation or the ship over. there are many signs of it which are positive, it is not done. thatdeled it and thought it would take three or five years for the entire process to happen. we are in year three so we are at this stage when we are seeing some real facts. -- effects. after this, it is the positives
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which should be much more dominates. one of the services is your service sector. it is a much smaller component of our economy. it is much less important. is that part of the structural shift that you're talking about. certainly, what we thought we lost over the course of the cycle, not just at the time of the natural crisis but in the few years preceding it. that has put a hole in the economy and the idea is what you would fill that up with. probably the companies that close their doors during that. are not going to reopen. it is not a sleeping beauty model of exporting. itt is more likely that is is brand-new companies in different parts of the economy. we are looking at those growth for an and ready creation is. where the employment opportunity is the strongest and which
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exports are growing the fastest. for example, i.t. services. that is a big area. we are watching that very closely and waiting for those companies to come inside to it. those of the things that will fill it all. >> it continues to be the hot housing market in this country. you have been watching for effects of that. what are you saying now? >> we are seeing very early affects. we will have stronger underwriting for future coverages. that automatically means that is revealing resilience overtime. it is not about how the prices is still go up or what have you. that is a matter for when demands apply. it takes a stressor out of the equation. you are trying to guide the economy along here. one of the banks not to count
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on rising home prices as they see direct mortgages. is that a concern that the banks will go to far? >> it has not been my experience. thesegood for us to have discussions and the open. my understanding and my firm believers that did banks have been very good underwriters throughout this. is ane will have individual and a lender and can i qualify? it gives you a cushion in the system. if rates do drift up, what we have to be ready -- we have to be ready for that. >> we were talking to president-elect trump about trade. what do think about some of the policies that might come our way? canada -- it is not a
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uniformly negative question. it means we had to have all of our ducks lined up and ready to negotiate those things. we are to be open to other trade agreements. that is where we will grow our new markets. >> thank you, think for your time. canada take ond infrastructure spending. what if u.s. infrastructure spending is in all it is cracked up to be? this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> there has been a lot of controversy surrounding donald trump's plan.
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what it infrastructure spending is not really the way to boost the u.s. economy? here to discuss is an associate professor. she joins us in new york. thank you very much for joining us. there is a lot of excitement right now about infrastructure, donald trump seems to be having a different view on spending than other republicans who have been very low for the federal government to spend on anything. does this make sense? should they go on a big infrastructure spending boom right now? getes, it does access to national economic revitalization plans. that data that you listened was very telling, we should have started 20 years ago. the question is what he is proposing. not all spending is created equal. what would be good spending
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and what would be wasteful spending in this context? >> there are few details that he has offered. that thise getting is is a large tax cut plan. .hat has huge subsidies it is not clear what part of that plan is direct spending. call it anto infrastructure plan or a jobs plan which is what the to want, weeems need to see whether we are actually talking about targeted, direct spending on the bridges of infrastructure or are we talking about incentives? that makeshe things infrastructure, this theoretical plan, interesting is that it is coming at a time when there is 4.9% unemployment, wages seem to be rising. usually we talk about these things at a time when the economy is depressed.
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you have argued that it doesn't make sense to use infrastructure spending. that it should be based on the back there would need to boost the economy right now can you explain that? >> yes, the argument for infrastructure is just me on its own terms. you should do it rain or shine, good economy or bad economy, it has to be done. we stabilizes how the unstable economy. even though the label markets seem to be good and improving, there is a lot that indicates slack in the economy. there is lots of hidden unemployment. these are the pressing issues. , there arent of view better policies to stabilize the economy. right now, they are coming out with the annual outlooks. every analyst is identifying infrastructure with the kind of fiscal policy that we need.
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that is not the only fiscal policy out there, there are better ways to design that are cyclical. joe: what would be a better way to counter cyclical spending instead of just building a bunch of roads and bridges and the economy is down? >> i have worked on a proposal that is a transitional job proposal. that isstandby program for the unemployed. measure we have a permanent somebodyhat says to who is jobless, ok, you have run out of unemployment insurance. you are not able to find a private sector employment. that we will offer employment insurance. we will guarantee that they will job employment, a opportunity, you name it. employmente your safety net. when the private sector recovers, you can transition out
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of that program and find better take my the sector employment. it is a standby policy. it will fluctuate precisely with the bucs relations in unemployment. joe: the basic idea is to fix the bridges you need to fix when they are broken. countercyclical stuff, focus on unemployment directly. i will ask you finally about donald trump promising beltalization for the rust , pennsylvania, wisconsin, where he did surprisingly well. what would a policy look like if there is one? >> if you look at the county level unemployment rate, you will see that they are plagued by persistent time levels above 10% unemployment rate. -- aa policy
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countercyclical policy would do is targeted directly. -- target that directly. they have food problems. they have inadequate education. inadequate infrastructure as well. there is a whole host of things that can be done precisely where the jobs are needed. pavlina tcherneva, thank you so much. thee will take a look at human economy coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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investing in post-castro cuba.
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scarlet: cuba has been rising and falling. fidel castro has emergency operation. you can see the price surge. when rebel was elected president, it took a tumble. we will move over to 2015. democraticstablish stipulations under obama. you can see the light up under when fidel castro died. he said that he made terminate the re-opening with cuba. there are no specific offers. they didn't him to move much at all on those headlines. it is questionable whether it is a proxy for the news event out of cuba. nevertheless, interesting to see that it got it used up.
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-- a boost up. i am talking about another country you don't talk about much, zimbabwe. they have reintroduced their own for the firstncy time. a lot of consternation. why are people so nervous? in zimbabwe the cpi hit 231,000,000% it was pretty big. should bankers in europe take a lesson in how to raise their inflation levels and symbolic way. in zimbabwe. onlyet: maybe it is 231,000%
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take a look at some of the major indexes. ,ave the dow, the nasdaq aldridge rating from record highs. this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: what did you miss, the
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nasdaq and the dow falling from all-time highs. i am scarlet. joe: i am joe. viewerso welcome the who are watching on twitter. scarlet: the u.s. starts the week lower. seven out of 11 major groups signing up for the dow and the s&p. it was a retreat from record highs. come inside the luber terminal -- the bloomberg terminal here. the worst performer is down 1.4%. utilities and telecom are performing better. they did not do so well after the auction of donald trump.
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joe: a lot of reversal today after the postelection trade. this is the russell 2000. of course, that leg lower at the very end of the chart, indicating how the russell has day advance. it was an incredible run their. at bondss look starting with the u.s. two and 10 year. the 10 year yield is down to 3.1. scarlet was saying that it was a reversal. interesting that it is a classical rabat. ones are benefiting. -- bonds are benefiting. i want to look at it german 10 year yield.
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readyave been staying elevated, we have seen german 10 year yields back down again, down to low levels after the election. some of this political unrest that we have in europe with wely and austria and france, will be talking about that. it may be causing a flight to safety. scarlet: it has shifted over to the continent. the dollar is giving back some of its recent gains. dollar-yen, you can see that the dow had the biggest drop versus the yen. speaking of they percentage moves, take a look at the south african rand. it was the biggest gainer versus the dollar today. this is that 3% move. there were two catalysts here. they maintain their credit rating for south africa.
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xm will give its credit review. that will be on friday. senior rulers called for jacob zuma to step down. that will help fuel some of the gain in the rant. look at oil which had a really up and down day. take -- today. they are trying to work out the technical details. i have not done it yet. still trying to put a cap on oil production of some sort. they now markets are a little bit more helpful than they were earlier in the day. oil is a five-year look at production. you can see that it has been surging over the years. you can see why there is some eagerness to put this cap on. there is oil flowing from everywhere in the world.
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there is a lot of geopolitical differences between the various countries. no deal yet. let's look at some other commodities which are absolute monster surging. keep talking about these industrial metals every day. everyone is demanding from china. we don't talk about lead that much. up another 5.5%. really quickly, i want to look at coffee. a boom brazil has called in brazil. scarlet: that is ugly. those are today's market minutes. datait is an economic bonanza. thursday, we will get manufacturing and on friday, the jobs report. that jobs report won't have much
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impact on the fate of the december decision. it will tell us more about the pace of economic activity, heading into year and. joining us now is jeffrey's chief financial economist. i want to go to bloomberg really quickly. and looks at the fed outlook. this is kind of remarkable for 2017. kind of in the same place based on that green light and that purple line there. suddenly, everyone has seen left off. a few hikes in our future. this everyone have it right? we will know for a while if everyone has it right. for the longest time, the fed's expectations about what they will do our credible. we have seen the economy rebound nicely in the second half of the year.
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that makes the rate hikes next year feasible. now we have the possibility of physical stimulus around the corner. there are a lot of kernels that before we cleared actually find out what we get. it does look like at long last least approaching the situation where the time for stimulus can get past monetary policy to fiscal policy which can help a lot. >> we maybe finally getting that. you have written that with donald trump pursuing a more spending fiscal policy, what does that look like? elizabeth wenzhou is talking about in 2017. i don't think the feds will try to get out ahead of fiscal stimulus. if you look at corporate tax cuts, that should be there he stimulus it.
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i don't think there will be to much trouble getting it through. going into the infrastructure spending, the issues of how you pay for this is going to become more of an issue. in march of next year, we will be dealing with the debt ceiling for the first time and a long time. a number of budgetary issues could collide at the same time. can force the new administration to address the issue and say how do we pay for the stimulus? joe: -- scarlet: is it not going to be an issue because you have a republican in the white house? >> i would not say that because i would think that the republicans are the ones to make the debt ceiling more of an issue. they have said over a long. long time. havethey want to reductions in spending. we know that that is what paul ryan is wanted to do for a long
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time. at a now, we are looking very uncertain situation. potential is great for the economy. at some point, they will deal with the reality of how we pay for it. has the market pricing for that expectations got ahead of itself? first of all, most everyone would have guessed that the economy would go down if trump one. that has not been the case and yields have been off to the races. is it possible that people are saying, this is not as much of a sure deal as people think? >> it is not as much of a sure deal. thes in asia the week after election and a lot of the long-term pension funds and insurance companies and investors over there were delighted to see a 3% long bond. it meant that they can put some yield on the books for the first
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time in a long time. we are still an environment where we have qe overseas. where there is qe overseas, we tend to report it. it makes us look better. the market has responded to the potential for stimulative fiscal policy. now it is going to be more and a mode where it response to how things unfold in a discreet fashion. you know that there were divisions and the fed. does the election outcome hard and those divisions? potential there is for that. that is a reasonable observation because they should have been tightening force had some time tightening or quite some time. the fed's intention is
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to be ahead of inflation. they are wanted to see the inflation. they want to see it get routed before they respond to it. worry about that politicization under this administration? donald trump is not known to keep his views close to the best. perceived that a hiking cycle is offsetting any gains you would get from stimulus, the worry about these issues coming to a head? >> you are right about donald trump but also donald trump is not known for maintaining the same position on a number of issues. for example, the fed is very janet yellen when he was running for president. now that he is president elect,
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he will be more sympathetic to them provided some stimulus to the economy. scarlet: the unemployment rate is to stay at 4.9%. are we at full employment? >> i don't think we are, we had a dichotomous labor market where those who are skilled labor are pretty much good with a job. we have college graduates and their unemployment rate is very low. high school graduates and those without any diploma are former likely to be out of a job. that is where the infrastructure spending could come in. semiskilled and unskilled labor could pick up a shovel and get back into the workforce for the first time in a long time. joe: thank you very much. trump justnald tweeted that he was very impressed by retired general
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david. this is bloomberg. ♪
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on an ohion attack campus left nine people hurt. he plowed a car into a group of pedestrians and is got out and started stabbing people with a butcher knife. lummis police say they are looking into whether it was a terrorist attack. and -- a permanent resident and the u.s.. donald trump has wrapped up his with thehis meeting
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retired general david reyes. at the meeting went well but a decision by the next president is still very much up in the air. >> i was with him for about an hour and he walked us around the world. showed a great grasp of the variety of challenges that are of there, and some opportunities as well. a very good conversation, we will where it goes from here. >> the celebrated force our general that the government after sharing classified documents of extramarital affairs. the men accused of killing nine black parishioners will act as his own attorney. -- dylanh requested to dylan roof will be representing himself and going against his attorney. new and obama -- new obama
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will helption rules schools. it'll provide a broad framework and design new accountability systems. now, an achievement gap. it is a keep out of the bipartisan plan. it will place the no child left behind act. day,l news, 24 hours a powered by over 2600 journalists in 100 20 countries. i'm courtney collins. this is bloomberg. joe: the dollar is heading for his biggest decline against the yen. we have a great currency boards with us. thank you very much for joining us. does the dollar have more to run? bob: i thought we were getting close to the end of the dollar
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run. i think we are pretty close to the end of the dollar run now. we had a lot of adjustment on the interest rate markets. , 105 on the run dollar is somewhere in the 110 or 115 range. if that is the case, do we see treasuries making a bit of a recovery that if the dollar has only run as far as it has. the people go back to treasury? we could. whether wen will be get any further clues on any spending initiatives coming out of the trunk administration. and it we had a bit of an overreaction and a number of markets. i think things will calm down over the next few weeks. particularly going into the years and. -- year's end. >> it has been a clear trend the
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people's have seen. sense, what is your theory for people embracing this narrative? >> was surprises me about this is that there is so much focus driven by spending and growth. why are there tax cuts? the big thing that is coming out in 2017 is that we are going to get a cut in corporate taxes. that is going to increase the after-tax returns. that will increase the ability to pay future dividends. i would say that the evaluation of equity should go up. carry-on to that that people's expectation for the economy are going up because stocks are doing better. world,look around the manufacturing, purchasing managers indexes are definitively recovering into the latter part of the year.
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as our overall composite growth indexes. i think the global economy is improving. i think that is partly what is driving growth expectations and commodity prices and the fixed income markets. thelet: the knock on stronger dollar is that has tightened financial commissions. since august, since we saw yields recover, and since the election, it is much higher. it'll have a knock on the economy. wanted have a slowing effect on the economy? >> there is a tightening of financial conditions. federal have some impact on the economy. on the other hand, the potential for foreign repatriation, lower taxes and higher after-tax rate have returned. the weakest part of this economic recovery is capital
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spending. if in fact we are going to get lower corporate tax rates and the after-tax return to investment goes up in the u.s., we may see some improvement in capital spending and i think it is good for commodities. it is probably good for overall growth. i was looking at this chart earlier, it is a chart of 10 year yields. we made a very low 10 year yield on july 8, right before the japanese upper house election. that's on the current administration gain more power. -- thext big spike up two big moves on this chart are all politics related. you can never look at this chart and identify whether there was any sort of central bank's decision that could happen this year. doesn't this seem symbolic toward politics? >> i would put a third. on june 23. all political offense. that is when risk aversion
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really took place. i think they are taking on more important because the monetary policy is pretty much on hold. the thought process was that the fed would get one rate hike in this year by the skin of their teeth. policy is pretty much on hold, the boj policy is on hold. i think monetary policy has done what it can. now it is up to fiscal policy and my question is whether or not any of these political offense, after the u.k. brazen decision, they will have to adopt some is go stimulus. you will stick with us because i we will take a look at politics in france and italy. 's france unemployment. picture ofbig of a it. it is higher than the majority of european countries. that causes a lot of problems.
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this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ scarlet: italy's government is rattling investors. this forced resigned friday dance to a three-week rally in italian chairs. left has headlines, you can see headlines from this morning. i hope italians will vote on reform on december 4. italy will be stronger. there are charts on eu inflation on our website. portugalant to go to
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risk. although conditions in different countries are interesting because if you look at youth unemployment, you can sort it out. italy has the third highest unemployment after greece and spain. in terms of banking, nonperforming loans, you would expect to see italy here as well. that is a percentage of total loans. only cyprus and greece are higher. these are things to keep in mind as we head toward that referendum. us, think on security is still speaking with us. this is a fascination like we talk about with the data. it is rising to its highest level in over two years. obviously, political risk is back. how big of a deal is that? bob: interest costs go up and that is what we just talked about. we are seeing that in italy.
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is they have no control over monetary policy, not much but stability in terms of fiscal policy. this is the markets way of reacting to the political risk. it often shows up in the bomb market. -- bond market. so far, it is a concentrated issue. we have not seen the spread out and spain, portugal and other countries. this is localized to italy. the question will be after the brexit vote if we know what referendum is working in italy. scarlet: there is political risk to deal with in france. the spread between french and german debt. this would be a lot higher if it weren't for the backstopping. bob: race for the whole year would be higher without the ecb
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backstopping. risknk that the political thene of spreading across whole continent and then you get disorderly conditions in this market. the ucb will -- ecb will be called on to keep costs down. i don't think we will get there. is a't think that this political risk. he may be refreshing for the french economy. you can do about political politics. saidet: even though he that it would take a little rest. joe: coming up, what will they trump presidency me for u.s. ?inancial reservations we answer some key questions. this is bloomberg. ♪
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. .
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>> on courtney collins. let's get to bloomberg first word news. the suspect in the attack on the state university has been identified, a somali born legal permanent resident of the united states. that is according to a u.s. official who spoke on conditions of anonymity. witnesses say that he plowed his car into a group of pedestrians and then got out and started stabbing people with a butcher knife. a.m., the9:52 emergency dispatch got a report of vehicle had struck pedestrians. an osu pd officer got on the
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shots wereng that fired. the suspects cut multiple individuals. the officer engaged the suspect and shot and killed the suspect. ,ourtney: nine people were hurt one critically. president elect donald trump has won michigan's 16 and liked oral votes by fewer than 11,000 votes. the state certified his victory nearly three weeks after the election. percent margin, the closest race in michigan in three years. a lawyer for green party's campaign has notified the michigan election board it will seek a recount. chancellor angela merkel is announcing the tone of the american election campaign. she declared last week she will run in next year's election.
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she took her message to the town hall of her christian democratic union today. as thousands of cubans are lining up near havana's plaza on the revolution for the start of the week long services for former president fidel castro. many cubans playing homage to castro are workers at state businesses. the white house says that president obama and vice president joe biden will not attend castro's funeral. hours a day,4 powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm courtney collins. this is bloomberg. scarlet? scarlet: thank you. let's get a report on the market losing 40e dow points, the s&p declining more than 1.5%.ore
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it is taking off some of the trade put on the last couple of days. joe: very much a reversal of the last couple days. bonds rallied today. electionpost trump trade, flip it, and that's probably what happened today. and the biggest u.s. health insurer forecast 2017 profits that exceeded analyst estimates. united will have its investor day tomorrow, some more details presumably from management. there is been a lot of speculation about what trump's presidency will mean for regulation. is dodd-frank doomed? what are the implications for the sec? what about the department of labor fiduciary role? joining us, the head of rick maggiore intelligence at round brothers
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harriman. he joins us from london. thanks for joining us. obviously it's always tricky to assess what policies to expect out of this administration because at times it has been contradictory, but in your view, what is the most likely change the financial industry can expect under president trump? guest: yeah, as you say, joe, it's often difficult to predict because the details were not as fully fleshed out as in past elections. what we should not expect is a full-fledged repeal of dodd-frank. i think we should expect the house bill, the choice act, to gain traction early next year as republicans look to push through the reform bill for dodd-frank. scarlet: here's another way of asking the same question. for the republican party, the gop, what will they preserve? guest: when you talk about the
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republican party, we talk about it as a monolith, but it is made up of different groups of constituents. some are more libertarian, some are more populist who would like to see the banks reined in. i think for the gop, what they would like to preserve is the parts of dodd-frank that may be banks founder in terms of capital requirements. the parts they would like to pull back -- the volcker rule, which they feel has unnecessarily restricted the ability of banks to trade. obviously, financial stocks have gone gangbusters since the election. i have been asking this of everyone. is it possible the populist wing of the party -- which seems decently represented in this rhite house -- thei influences being underestimated? guest: i think so. in the absence of real detail, we go with what we know. the markets are hoping that trump would be a friend to
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financials on wall street, but we may be underestimating the populist wing that has strong distaste for wall street and wall street still does not have the greatest reputation across the u.s. what within financial regulation or anything that holds back the financial industry can be done unilaterally by president trump? example isclearest the controversial department of labor fiduciary rule your that was -- rule. that was introduced by obama's executive order. that can be amended, withdrawn, or completely repealed by donald's incoming department of labor secretary. that rule could go away without any action of congress. of trump's advisers have indicated he would like to do that. at the same to him, i would go back to the populist point. it is a tough needle to thread to repeal a piece of legislation that is designed to protect savers and provide investment protection, at the same time
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courting a populist wing to your party. theoretically trump for the rubble and party wants to deregulate because there are some things that can be done very quickly without congressional approval, it's not a done deal we will see these things anytime soon? guest: yeah, i think that's right. we also have to understand republicans in congress do not congress do not have a bulletproof majority. they are still going to have to negotiate with the other half of the isle, along with her own party, to get any change through. certainly, i would not expect fast-moving regulatory changes. scarlet: will rolling back regulation cost of the banks money question mark they spent years training of people on systems to comply with new regulations. they might not like it and they spent a lot of money fighting it as well, but the pendulum swings, they will have to spend more money to undo what they did. guest: yes, that's exactly
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right. that is what you have seen the banks are pretty silent on the process. there has been millions and millions of dollars spent conforming with dodd-frank, and i'll think anyone in the industry, or frankly, policymakers have the energy have the -- of the energy to redo all of that again. joe: speaking of redoing all of that again. i want to ask you about the city of london. obviously the brexit process has not begun with article 50. no one knows what the end of the road will look like when that is over two years from now. should thanks start preparing now and and his of a few rules, or wait until it is very clear at the end of the line? beeastly they do not want to in the same situation where they imagine for one world and it ins up looking different. -- it ins up looking different. guest: i think what they should be doing an almost certainly are doing now is assessing based on
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a worst-case scenario in london, and going completely outside of europe with no access to the single market, what that means for business models and what needs to change. i don't think anyone wants to pull the trigger first. there is no first mover advantage. but you want to be prepared. joe: all right, thank you. up, davidoming pretorius met with president elect donald trump today as a possible secretary of state candidate, a week after mitt romney was rumored to be up for the job. we will take you inside the search for the next secretary of state. this is when burke. ♪
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scarlet: president-elect donald trump is back in new york and has wrapped up his meeting with david petronius who is being considered for secretary of
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spoke general petraeus well of their meeting. just but he basically walked is around the world, should a great grasp of variety of the challenges that are out there and some of the opportunities as well. so, very good conversation. we will see where it goes from here. joining us now, our bloombergpolitics reporter kevin in washington. one thing about david ds -- pe traeus of course is he resigned after exposing confidential information during a extramarital affair. to what extent is that being acknowledged with the parallels with what secretary clinton did? >> when i confronted trump on the campaign trail, he would frequently allude to him as why
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you're going to and should be behind bars. he we have seen him walk that back. he said that he thought that ,illary clinton did far worse to lead to his ousting. the second point was i spoke with a senior trump transition sores earlier today who told me there is widespread support on the inner circle and the interest wants of the trump transition team to select the general. the only reason perhaps he would general for the position is he would not want to have two generals. but clearly this is coming on rumbling inner fighting between trump's inner circle about whether he should select mitt romney, the former 2012 republican presidential nominee
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turned political foe. trump is scheduled to meet romney tomorrow along with senator bob corker. scarlet: isn't general petraeus still a criminal probation until april 2017? kevin: what we are hearing -- the investigation into his classifiedk of information from a his 2012 resignation, parts of it are still ongoing. we will have to see how that shapes up and whether or not that impact the decision at all. joe: and also you might say it -- hypocrisy,he, but even if he did, there would be no ramifications from republicans or voters? right?uld roll off, kevin: you have to member a lot of the grass-roots republican during the campaign were looking for a presidential candidate to attack hillary clinton, to arosecute hillary clinton" in
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way that others were not able to do. i think that perhaps, the vernacular surrounding that rhetoric is sort of what was behind it. joe: there was a lot of controversy today in over the weekend about kellyanne conway savaging mitt romney on tv. no one knows why she did it. some said oh, she is freelancing. did she want to get trump's attention by appearing on tv? is this a message from trump? i think we have a shot at it. let's listen. conway: people feel betrayed to think that governor romney, who went out of his way to question the character and intellect and integrity of donald trump, now are president-elect, would be given the most significant cap net post of all, and that's a decision only one man can make. i will respect it and i will support it 1000%. so, what is the leading
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theory for what this is all about? kevin: you've got to remember, and i put this western directly to senior transition sources and pretty much what they told me was this was a little campaign campaign, and a lot of the grassroots folks really roiled against the establishment, so for donald trump to select one of the political establishment figures, especially for the republican wrasse roots, that would be incredibly frustrating. so, kellyanne conway, if you will, represents the grassroots debate, and, you know, her political orbit suggest they feel strongly that that voice be heard. sense why't make people in the republican party cannot -- it does make sense what people in the republican with the ideaeal position.tting that
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it's going on tv that is the weird part, right? kevin: that is unprecedented that this public infighting is so public is very abnormal. but you know what? i have covered this campaign from the beginning. i have given up on saying how many times things are unprecedented. who knows what is going to happen next? scarlet: right, abnormal seems to be the consistency. kevin: he has been interesting. [laughter] scarlet: he had a weekend twitter storm and which he talked about how he won the electoral college in a landslide, but the wrist fraud in the popular vote. he said there was voter fraud indelibly, virginia, new hampshire, without offering any proof. how does this manifest in the coming days? he puts it out there and does not address it again? kevin: this is also unprecedented, but again, covering him for so long, if you look of the pattern -- he tweets these things, it is a bright,
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shiny object, everybody writes about it, gets all flustered, and then it goes away. the bottom line though is he is no longer the candidate. he is the president elect. whether or not he will continue this once he becomes president we will have to wait and see, but i can tell you white house press secretary josh earnest in a press reefing said the white house was not involved in any way, shape, or form behind joel stein and now hillary clinton's effort in wisconsin to back a , thist, but clearly recount, this popular vote debate is continuing, this rhetoric around it and it has taken on a life of its own. scarlet: thank you, joining us from washington. kevin: thank you, guys. joe: up next, we hear from the citigroup chief economist about the state of opec. this is bloomberg. ♪
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4:51 pm back on the opec officials trying to sell on word of production cuts. the minister is optimistic the ere will be a deal later this week. here is what he told reporters in vienna. >> we will cooperate. we will reach agreement. will this rhetoric help seal the deal? the foundations for the dealer
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looking shaky. citigroup's chief economist spoke earlier on bloomberg tv. >> deals of this nature have been hard to come by recently. it's not just the usual suspects. iraq,pec, the saudi's, the irani and's, and russia. in the background, their looms a likely increase in production. it is going to lead to a boosting u.s. reduction. it is very hard to see, as far as i can see, a successful injuring outcome of this freeze or cut, whatever they are trying to achieve. >> even if you do have a freeze or cut or whatever it is but they come up with, do you think we will see low oil prices -- oil prices low enough to remain stimulative to the global economy is a measure? whether oil prices are low enough depends on what causes
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them, right? if it is a boost in supply, it is stimulus. if it is demand, it's a reflection of weakness. if the u.s. starts producing in 17-18, iy more think we will see weaker oil prices. it really depends on what the u.s. does and whether opec will get its act together. cartels are notoriously fickle beasts, very hard to manage. >> how much of this is political and how much is economic? how big a factor is resin elect donald trump now -- president-elect donald trump's says let's drill more? difference a huge because this is a president that and eliminatelate environmental controls. boosted.ction will be
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that should be reflected in prices. especially when you get to 2018. julie: when you look at the energy landscape and you are trying to way that with the other economic factors around the globe, how important is the price of energy at this point. >> it is not my major concern. my major concern is that peace reigns in the international trading field, right, and we get the kind of fiscal boost in this something similar , -- i in other parts, including europe, possibly japan. , other resources
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will be lifted out -- lifted, alongside economic activity. restriction, highly successful will be damaging, i think with the negative supply shock. >> enough to return or reverse the trump trade? >> i doubt it, no. markets are still too deeply embedded in international exuberance. you have to wait to see what -- ally ready, andis shovel of course, the tax cuts. and markets are assuming the best. joe: that was citigroup's global chief economist. scarlet: coming up, what you need to know for tomorrow's trading day.
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this is bloomberg. ♪
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miss" --"what'd you the russell 2000 ended its winning streak. joe: everything flipped. scarlet: we will see along the last. in terms of tomorrow -- pay attention ahead of the italian referendum on wednesday. joe: and i will be looking add u.s. gdp coming out tomorrow. scarlet: and tiffany's is reporting earnings before the bell. we will see what the stronger dollar did or did not do.
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joe: and being right next to trump tower. scarlet: that is all. thanks for watching. see you back here tomorrow. joe:
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john: i'm john heilemann. i'm mark halperin. and "with all due respect" to net romney who is reportedly having dinner with donald trump, would you consider secretary of steak? ♪ of novemberaccused monday. more fallout from fidel castro's on the campus of ohio state university this morning. we start the week with three unsolved mysteries. lady's get to the green recount, but first of the riddle of kellyanne conway and an ongoing secretary of sta


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