tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg November 30, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EST
nejra: we're going to take you from new york to vienna and cover stories are frankfurt, london and washington in the hour. opec is said to have clinched a deal to curtail oil supply, confounding skeptics in its first cut in a years. markets are reacting favorably, but does this group still have to prove its credibility? vonnie: president-elect donald onmp looks to outline plans the same day steve nugent and wilbur ross are nominated for top jobs in his administration. and the bank of england's toughest stress test. we are about 30 minutes
from the close of equity trading here in europe, but the focus is still very much on the oil prices -- brent going above $50 a barrel for the first time since october. of course rallying as opec is said to have reached an agreement on an output cut. crude oil dominating the market for the moment, up 7.7% on brent crude. picture,k at the dig russia's indexes up and canada is up .7%. if we look at the ftse 100, we are up point 5%. space, thethe fx dollar is strong, up .4%. we are seeing the .8 percent. up
note the high correlation between the ruble and wti crude at the moment. looking at what is happening in the bond market space, we see treasury yields move higher on the 10 year. let me show you what is happening on the sector breakdown on european stocks. up for a second day, on track for the first monthly gain in three and energy stocks are leading the gains. no surprise with the rally we see in oil. materials closely following largely on chemical companies gaining with linda rallying today saying it is reviewing a revised proposal. we see metals rally, too. this chart with the dollar moving in tandem with the treasury yield premium versus its global counterparts, at its highest since 2007.
the dollar is poised for its best month since 2009 versus the yen. julie: in the united states, we are watching oil prices climbing and hovering near the highs of the session, even after we got the weekly inventory reports. on the one hand, it did show a drawdown in crude oil inventories and a build in gasoline and distillate inventories. oilking off the news -- keying off the news and with those prices higher, we see energy stocks rise and the overall index rise as well. however, the s&p 500 after touching an intraday record is often point 1%. tech stocks are down and we see interest rate sensitive groups like telecoms and real estate down today as well. of the oillatility market has been coming out with
the outcome of this opec meeting. indexs the oil volatility -- we saw elevated volatility coming down and oil stocks are benefiting as one might imagine. anadarko and halliburton seeing big gains. the other story has to do with the u.s. dollar and the 10 year yield continues to crop -- continues to climb. still on track now, u.s. treasuries, for their worst month going back to 2009. we have a chart on the bloomberg that shows that. here's the monthly move on the bloomberg barclays treasury index. drop in thisother month as a result of this bond rout. a lot of movement, that's for sure. time now to check in on the bloomberg first word news with
courtney donohoe in the newsroom. donaldy: president-elect trump says he will leave his business in total to focus running the country. he will hold a news conference with his children on december 15 to discuss the details. he says he's not legally obligated to hand off his businesses but that it is important to have no conflicts of interest. meanwhile, trump has chosen steve mnuchin to be secretary of treasury. he's a well-known hollywood financier and was bankrolling hits like "avatar." he spoke earlier at trump tower. >> we need to make sure our infrastructure is built for that when he first century, that we have roads and bridges and power grids and infrastructure that support this country and that's going to be the focus. trump also selected billionaire wilbur ross to be secretary of commerce.
ross was an advocate for trump's economic program when trump was considered a long shot. democrats are choosing a minority leader in the house today. nancy pelosi is expected to prevail despite a challenge by tim ryan. british consumers are increasingly gloomy about their economic prospects. a research firm says the confidence index has dropped to the lowest since july, when u.k. voted to leave the european union. economy -- the economy is expected to slow down next year. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. nejra: we are following all development out of the opec meeting in vienna. opec has agreed to a deal on output cuts for delegates signing to reduce production by
1.2 million barrels a day. withng us is our reporter all the latest. we are still waiting for the for the details. we are waiting for the news conference but the delegates are leaving me behind the building there. we spoke to the minister who said he's happy with the decision. the iranians were a big part of this deal and it looks like there's going to be some sort of deal with them where the saudi arabians agree they could pump to 3.9 and then they would cut 3.79 and change. minister saying he's happy with the decision. this deal is huge if you think about how much time and effort and airfare has been used by these ministers around the world. it took more than half a year to
get this deal done. it started in april when talks broke down and they were able to get a consensus in algiers. that september agreement until now, it has been about the details and they were able to put aside their differences and decide on a cut between all members with two exemptions. what is next is how are they going to implement this deal and monitor it to make sure everyone stays on their exact quotas. seeingwe're certainly wti and brent up more than 7% right now. i wanted to ask about was looking ahead to next week, we see opec is likely to meet with non-opec producers. have the saudi oil minister saying there was no point having that meeting until we have that
agreement in opec. guest: they wanted the agreement in opec and and we wanted to tell you what we were willing to cut. there will be a meeting between opec and non-opec members. we know russia is said to be willing to cut 200,000 barrels per day. opec has asked non-opec members to cut 600,000 barrels. oman has agreed to cut 10%. it will be interesting to see what non-opec producers decide .o actually cut russia is really coming into play because for months, they have said they've only been willing to do a freeze from the very top. flatware putin saying he's .illing to cut 200,000 barrels -- flat amir putin saying he's puting to cut -- vladimir
saying he's willing to cut 200,000 barrels. so much.ank you we've got news breaking across the bloomberg -- iran pass minister saying they will cut production to 32 .5 million barrels a day. and we've got the news conference just beginning in vienna. across that for you and you can watch it on the bloomberg on live go. brent both vti and up about 8%. president-elect donald trump is starting to form his economic team. --has nominated mnuchin nominated steve mnuchin and wilbur ross. the dollar is strengthening and keeps getting stronger. it looks like we have a team beginning to form that will want
a stronger dollar and an opec agreement. will keep the dollar from continuing to strengthen? maybe the idea that these wonderful ideas are difficult to implement. there are two forces here -- one is the spending trump. he wants to build the wall and some people say it's good, but it is inflationary and not about the discipline. i happen to think yields go up because of high inflation expectations. what is good is investment in the u.s. is made easier. the plan to eliminate taxes on appreciation so you can depreciate assets the first year, restructuring the u.s. tax system to cost investment rather than consumption. those things are positives for the dollar. with thef this happens backdrop that a lot of good news
is priced into the dollar already. historically, the dollar goes up when there's anticipation of higher when there's anticipation of higher rates, not when rates actually go higher. i would like to caution people to making too many parallels about the early 80's. the situation was different. unemployment and high inflation and asset prices were lower. the dollar is no longer the primary funding currency of choice. dollar.not bet the vonnie: the euro has its own troubles right now. and we have the italian referendum on sunday. what is the outcome? axel: you don't see much stress in the market. you would think the italian referendum is likely going to fail. if there's such turmoil, why isn't the yen strengthening? there's a lot of complacency.
it's just ann italian problem? you see it in the weaker euro but those positions are quite extreme and we are not at the end of the day yet. there might be some repositioning. if there is a risk off, the dollar often rallies. off, i would not put my bets on the euro moving either way. if they get reforms done, fantastic but nothing ever gets done smoothly. everything is a grinding process. we know how to playbook works. we know the banking system won't collapse because the ecb can keep any banking system alive. the market is moving along and banking reform is possible and italy is just politically difficult. there is a great column by mohamed el-erian on the bloomberg today talking about the messages to politicians from markets and the big expectation
of a shift away from central banks to fiscal policy. you have talked about the fact the dollar has been strengthening in anticipation of a lot of things coming. what sort of fallout do we see in the market if these fiscal plans in the u.s. and elsewhere don't materialize? axel: fiscal plans are used very broadly by various people. you arelanning means going to start building walls and fix potholes then that is ultimately not the best thing that's going to happen because you have low unemployment and that means inflation is going to go up. if fiscal planning means reducing barriers for investment i changing epa regulation and the financial service industry, that can be a positive. in europe, it's difficult to do structural reform and so draghi has been biting out his teeth. these policies are at their and and i think most people agree
with that. much't think there's easing possible in the eurozone, which means on a real basis, rates might have autumn and i think the market is underestimating that. i don't see a fed that wants to get ahead of inflation. i think there might be a disconnect in the market that maybe rates on a real basis are not going to go quite as much as anticipated. it's always in the context of where we are, but if we don't have structural reform -- maybe we get structural reform in u.s. and the markets are going to have a rough ride. interesting what you say about rates because i want to take you to this chart. the dollar has been moving in tandem with the tenure -- the 10 year treasury and gold moving the opposite way. you had very interesting insights on gold and i wonder where you think it's going from
here. two of the top forecasters see $1100 i the end of 2017. has: in recent months, gold been highly correlated to bonds. they tend to move in and out, but gold is fixated on that and and scenariosnews are priced in that real rates are going to go higher. in a few weeks and months, when the details come in on the actual reforms, yes, we have a rate hike coming up what is it in march or december? a lot of it depends on what the market is going to do and we have this thing where the tail is wagging the dog. get rid of the deductibility of imports, so these things will be watered down. this is again in the context of where valuations are. we will have more from the gold investor -- i see volatility going up and gold does
historically well in that environment. gold can suffer as we go through that condition. vonnie: thank you. the opec news conference is underway and we've got one personadlines -- saying the opec deal will start in january and saudi output at 10.70 8 be million barrels a day. the minister saying opec is back to form. saudi arabia saying non-opec is to contribute 600,000 barrels a to the cuts. we have a lot of headlines coming in. nigeria is exempt from the agreement. says theoal a minister next opec meeting is may 25,
but the biggest red flag is being raised at rbs which faced some major hurdles. a banking analyst with janus capital joins us. give us your take away of the stress tests. the performance themselves was probably broader than expected. was the best of the performers and it was to be expected. charterednd standard performing either side of the pass mark. it's important to air in mind they did i get the africa favorable treatment which is to be expected. that is a tough execution and there's discretion from the regulator on the consolidation. is to be expected.
royal bank was probably the surprise, not necessarily that it was the weakest, but the scale of the drawdown. 10% drawdown in pre-management action and therefore failing the test. now we are entering another phase of capital plan revision and business plan revision. i think it is the latter part that's the challenge for royal bank and royal bank investors. what does this mean for profitability? barrington: you hit the nail on the head -- that is the key issue. the degree of drawdown potentially gets mitigated over time when we get the litigation settlement. the problem here is this has been a 10 year journey, a long, winding and torturous one and we are enjoying another iteration of the capital plan and by implication, the business plan.
that means balance sheet reduction again, cost reduction again and that tends to drive revenue reduction. bankhesis is the core generates historically as much and we may be going lower. add in the excess capital and unfortunately, if you're occur -- pure core 180 p of core value, it's becoming a challenging investment case. vonnie: i was going to ask if the stress tests have become too severe now? no, i don't think so. when you see the performance of hsbc and lloyd's which have comfortably pass the tests and their drawdowns are very much
smaller than royal bank's, it proves the stress test is identifying idiosyncratic weakness. does this mean we are going to have fewer banks soon? are we going to have fewer banks this, especially after the brexit scenario? clearly this is a case for the breakup argument of royal bank. that's a difficult plan to execute at this stage. you need to put royal bank on a firmer footing. we have technological challenges there and they need to potentially settle the business. the consolidation could be quite challenging. you look at banks globally and you have interesting thoughts on italy and china.
as an investor, where is the biggest risk now? barrington: in the very near term, we have to focused on italy. the latest polls were suggesting a six to eight point loss. i think if we get an outside loss or indeed a win, you will have very significant market movements. the downside risk lies around the idea that if you have a significant loss at the referendum, say by more than 10 or 15 points, there will be questions raised about whether renzi can form a government or a technocratic government can be formed. if neither of those scenarios are possible and you are forced to go to elections, it could be a complicated scenario. at that point, very difficult to implement reforms and it may be difficult if there is no
government in place, it may be difficult to implement a bailout plan and for the government to and fund thee debt other week banks. nejra: if only we could keep you for longer. thank you for joining us. what's take a look where european markets are trading just four minutes away from the close of equity trading. the stoxx 600 up for a second day, heading for its third of course, wed are watching oil. the vti up .8%. this is bloomberg. ♪
second set we are going to give you a check on brent crews -- brent crude. the first output cut in years -- both wti and brent rallying on that. , but itow $50 a barrel did go above 50 for the first time since the end of october. a close eye on that at the moment. western europeo from global so we can see what is happening in the equity space in europe as the markets close. up 3%,p 2%, greece norway up 1.4%. we were seeing the ftse gaining fx space, ain the little bit of a stronger story. franc, sterling much unchanged.
in terms of what's happening in the fixed income space, 10 year treasury yields hitting hard. for basis 10 year up points but we are seeing yields move higher and you can see what is happening in the commodities space. down one point 4%. that has been moving inversely to what is happening with 10 year treasuries. 600, we aree stoxx higher for a second day, up .3%. this benchmark is having its first monthly gain in three as well. that energy stocks are leading on that higher oil price and materials performing strongly both in the chemical space, a lot of that driven by the gains we have seen from linda after they say they are reviewing a revised proposal.
financials performing pretty well. some of that is down to the yields moving higher on those bonds. here is one of my favorite chart of the day -- the dollar climbing in line with the treasury yield premium. that was at its highest since 2007. it is also poised for its best month since 2009 versus the yen. vonnie: i'm looking at country market movers as it relates to the united states. a mixed picture when it comes to stocks. the dow jones up about .3% and the s&p 500 just fractionally higher. we are seeing the nasdaq lower
rates,ly on utility and the worst performer in the nasdaq at the moment. -- reits, the worst former at the moment. the yen is weaker, commodity currencies weaker as well and as you can see, the bloomberg dollar index which is a basket of 10 currency -- 10 currencies is up. , both wti and brent up 8% on the day. it's worth noting we are back below $50 a barrel for brent. look atad an effect but those deals. we will look at them another time. is below 13.
impact.e should see an 1% stronger off the back of the opec and non-opec you -- non-opec news. we got the new york fed's quarterly household loan survey inay and saw an increase things like credit card loans and applications for credit. we will look into that a little bit later on. that check again on the bloomberg first word news. courtney: house speaker paul ryan he made it clear what his priority will be in the new congress. ryan and the republican majority will try to repeal and replace the affordable care act. speaker ryan: we need to get relief to families as fast as possible. this law is hurting families in america. this law is canceling insurance plans people wanted. this law is giving repeated
double-digit premium increases. this law is raising deductibles so high that it doesn't even feel like you have insurance. we have to bring obamacare relief as fast as we can in 2017 and that is our plan. the government says obamacare sign-ups are running year. than this time last authorities in tennessee say wildfires killed at least three people and destroyed hundreds of homes and resorts. hurricane force winds whipped the flames and forced 14,000 people to flee. the fire began last week at the national park in the smoky mountains and fires continue throughout the town. in colombia, searchers have recovered the blacks -- the black box recorder of the charter jet that slammed into the hillside. the plane was carrying a when itn soccer team reported having an electrical failure. one of the crew members told authorities the plane ran out of fuel. in south korea, the president
may have bought herself some time -- a faction of her ruling party that was once in her favor is in teaching her and they say they would accept her resignation at the end of april. lawmakers have given her nine days to make a proposal. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. donohoe.ney this is bloomberg. on thefor more development out of vienna at this historic opec meeting, we're going to go to will managingbloomberg's editor for energy and commodities. we have this historic deal and an agreement to cut output for the first time in eight years. one of the things that is breakthrough deal
shows an apparent acceptance by saudi arabia that iran and still raise production. iran will boost output by 90,000 barrels a day. may will meet again on 25th, 2017. opec intends to extend the cuts by another six months and we are hearing reports that russia is to make a statement on output cuts in the next few hours. sorry if i have stolen your thunder, but some this up for us because it is a historic deal and confounded the skeptics. will: given that where we were yesterday, wondering if there was going to be a deal at all, they have come through with a deal that is probably as broad and deep as anyone expected. they have gone to the bottom range of what they outlined in algiers in september. iraq has agreed to cut production and that's a key
problem solved. they settled on something for iran. the russian news could be huge if russia indeed follows through. it looks like they are going to iser to cut production which a huge thing for the global market if it happens. that is the key thing because sometimes what happens is we get this agreement and it is not followed through and the quotas breakdown. is that what could happen as well, live minting the upside to oil? -- limiting the upside to oil? will: yes. we get into counting tankers, monitoring numbers, seeing how much people are exporting and compliance is a huge issue. historically, opec members have been willing to break their embargo. underestimate what an important day it is. saudi arabia, which is pretty
good at sticking to its opec commitments, has said it will cut production by more than half a million barrels a day. who is taking the biggest hit here? can saudi whether that kind of a cut where another non-opec company is taking a hit for a much smaller cost question mark -- smaller cost? arabia --ey saudi it's the biggest -- clearly saudi arabia. it is the biggest and most likely to comply with the agreement. saudi arabia's going to do most of the work, but they got most of the thing they wanted going into this meeting, which is iran's participation, albeit with an admission it could raise production a little bit first. iraq's for dissipation is important and russia's
participation. saudi arabia will take a big hit but it will walk away from this meeting thinking it has achieved most of what it wanted to accomplish. vonnie: we have seen a spike in rent and wti, but we have not gone much above $50. do we get more of an increase? will: i think people will want some time to digest today's howement and think about many barrels are likely to come out of the market and really find out the details of these non-opec commitments. opec says it's expecting country's out of opec to cut 600,000 barrels a day. that's an ambitious number and traders will want to see how that number comes together and who is committing barrels. a lot of these numbers are serious, oil could rally a lot further from here, but one morning -- they will be cheering in texas this evening.
hedge a lot able to of forward production at higher prices and it will be very interesting to see how many american barrels replace the opec barrels that come out of the market over the next few months. much, willk you very kennedy, for breaking down that historic opec decision for us. coming up, ecb president mario draghi speaks in madrid, addressing europe's week productivity and some of his harshest critics. this is bloomberg. ♪
european close on bloomberg markets. oil continues to dominate headlines. let's go live to vienna. >> we are joined by ecuador's foreign minister and the acting ecuador.ter for he's the only foreign ministry goes to the opec meetings. >> just a foreign minister. we have an oil minister. >> you went to algiers and you are here in siena. what was a difference in those meetings? >> there has been a growing consensus that something needs to be done. for the first time in eight years, this is not a minor achievement. the general political mood expressed through i think a historic declaration, but we had to work on the technicalities of what the exactnd
responsibility of each country was going to be. this is what we have achieved now. we have achieved a 4.45% .eduction of opec countries as purdue much a 1.2 million daily reduction, which i think is historic and hopefully will restore stability to the market. what we are hoping for is stability and to stop these nefarious cycles of boom and bust which are bad for exporters and producers. ifwill the deal stands non-opec opec members failed to agree on the 600,000 barrel a day cuts? >> this is what we have been working on. you guys have been reporting on it. we wanted to be something we do altogether.
there have been a lot of consultations and i think the to takes expecting opec a decisive first step and send a strong signal, but that signal was contingent on other countries and i think we will see announcement in the next two minutes -- in the next few minutes from important opec members -- >> are you alluding to russia? what are they going to cut? >> we will have to see. the general notion we have is there will be an additional in globalrrels less production by non-opec members. opec, that'sat to 1.8 million barrels less in the market and i think that will have a big impact on stocks and a significant impact on stabilizing the markets. theo you expect to extend
deal for another six months when opec meets next year? >> that is something we will have to review. -- there was no significant opposition but we thought it was technically more wise to have a look at the deal six months down the road and analyze how things are going and convene again. else --es russia, who non-opec numbers that are very interested in the deal we are making. a number of central asian countries and some opec members already have a special relationship with. in our region, latin america, , mexico,countries colombia, brazil -- in latin america, we will be talking to the latin americans.
that is the role we will be playing. today's announcement, what we are seeing from russia and the sounds we are hearing from other corners of the world send a very strong signal. significantmost ,ntervention in production certainly in more than eight years, probably in decades. >> there was so much hype about were there. and you what were the toughest parts? >> these meetings are always long. they are tough. there comes a time when you have , anake a decision ultimatum, even. are we going to do this are not -- or not going to do this? what we demonstrated is there's enough cohesion in the organization and there were doubts about that. the aunt what journalists and analysts., people around the world thought.
we demonstrated opec is relevant in the 21st century. this organization is alive and well, it's taking matters into its hands, a relevant organization to this new century. >> will you be there december 9? >> i'm hoping to be there. we are checking to see if it's all opec members. -- maybe i will take a break. >> thank you so much for joining us. very optimistic and excited about this opec deal. he says opec is back. it certainly is an exciting day for opec. makes a historic agreement to cut oil output to 32.5 million barrels a day. we see wti and brent both rallying on that.
barrel and we0 a -- nancy breaking news pelosi has been reelected as the house minority leader. the democrat survived a challenge from ohio democrat tim ryan. pelosi, a democrat from san 2007isco was speaker from --ough 2011 and bested team bested tim ryan in a secret party vote to select the leader. ecb asup, we will talk we heard from the president, mario draghi, early -- earlier. and we have eurozone inflation data. this is bloomberg. ♪
stifling incentives for reform. speaking in richard -- speaking in madrid, he renewed his call for european governments not to miss this window of opportunity. mr. drawdy: lower interest rates tend to support rather than hinder the implementation of reforms. : lower interest rates tend to support rather than hinder the implementation of reforms. joining us from frankfurt is paul gordon who covers the european central bank. a lot of this was mario draghi pushing against criticism, right? yes.: he was referring to preliminary ecb research. with ultralow interest rates, governments have a fiscal space to offset some of the concerns
about pushing through economic reforms. he said those reforms are both urgently needed and essential to the euro area' every. sustainable recovery and he says the ecb cannot do that alone. so governments get work. that's the message. it is a message reverberating around the world when we talk about the limits of central bank policy. today, we got eurozone inflation accelerating for november ahead decemberb meeting on 8. what's the outlook for that and how might this latest inflation number play into that? : it's well below the ecb target of 2%. it hasn't been near that target in almost four years, so there's definitely nervousness about how climb.will core inflation is going nowhere and hasn't gone anywhere for the last five months.
headline inflation is going to pick up and headline inflation will drive most of that. the opec deal suggests that will accelerate, if anything. decide howl have to reliant is that recovery? heavily reliant is the message we are hearing. that suggests we are going to get some kind of extension, probably of quantitative easing. exactly what that would entail and whether it would happen remains to be decided. it could be a close call on the day. nejra: paul gordon, joining us from frankfurt. mario draghi speaking ahead of the ecb's december 8 meeting. let's look at where european markets ended the day. the stocks 600 gaining for a second day and european stocks having their first monthly gain and three. that werergy stocks
outperforming. no surprise, given what we have seen with the oil price. let's take a check on that as we gainingbti and brent after this historic agreement to cut output by opec. more than 8%. if we look at what's happening in the fx market, a bit of a stronger dollar story today. sterling, unchanged and a weaker euro. if you look at bond yields, 10 headingasury yield higher in europe tracking higher along with it. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ david: from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york, we are covering washington and new york. opec quenches the deal to cut , rising over 8%. the next u.s. treasury secretary, we will did -- dig into the latest. ♪ hyman joins us now with the latest. markets are moving a little bit on the oil news. julie: definitely. especially looking at oil stocks. energy shares are helping. we'll talk more.