Skip to main content

tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  February 1, 2017 3:30pm-5:01pm EST

3:30 pm
they ok the nomination of steve mnuchin for treasury secretary, and tom price to be health and human services secretary. democrats boycotted the vote yesterday. orrin hatch says the trade "left options."ecious few former vice president joe biden is backing tom perez to have the democratic national committee, calling the former labor secretary the best bet to bring the party back. joe biden cast perez, a dominican american civil rights champion oftireless working americans, immigrants, and the disabled. joe biden's support marks the highest endorsement in the crowded race to lead the democratic party. british lawmakers have backed a bill authorizing the talk of talks,n union exit pushing the measure passed its first major legislative hurdle. during two days of debate in the house of commons, many legislators from both governments and oppositions said
3:31 pm
they would respect the decision to leave the eu and back the bill. the conservative government wants to have the bill approved by early march, so we could meet a self-imposed march 31 deadline for triggering two years of eu divorce talks. strong words from british prime minister theresa may about president trump's travel ban, calling the order divisive and wrong. however, she said britain's interests are best served by continuing to engage with mr. trump as much as possible. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. scarlet: live from world
3:32 pm
headquarters in new york, i am scarlet fu. joe: i'm joe weisenthal. scarlet: u.s. central bank officials holding the benchmark interest rate steady, but did it announce confidence among consumers? facebook reports fourth-quarter earnings after the bell. we will look at how instagram is ramping up, but advertiser gross could be heading at speed bump. backlash on immigration. i sit down with cornell university president hunter rawlings. u.s. stocks are modestly higher with the s&p up, if you rounded up, by .10%. joe: the question is what did you miss? majorlook at where the averages stand as we head toward the close. abigail doolittle is standing by.
3:33 pm
abigail: we are looking at small gains. in the u.s., we have the dow and the s&p 500 up fractionally, with indexes flipping between small gains and losses all afternoon, right now trading slightly higher. than .5%, is up more helped by its overweighting to apple. if themportant to note s&p 500 happens to turn back down, it would be a five-day losing streak for the s&p 500, and the longest such streak since november. it will be important to see if the index can hold onto these gains. one index that remains down, the dow transport -- the third down day in a road -- in a row, on pace for its worst three-dislikes in september. despite the fact we have major averages slightly higher, there are bearish undertones worth paying attention to. relative to the decision to raise rates, not a lot of reaction to stocks. we look at a chart of the
3:34 pm
10-year yield out of the election. it is interesting to note we see a huge move up 53 basis points represented in red, because it tells a safe haven bonds are selling off. much of this happened after the election, perhaps on expectations trump's administration would be progrowth and changes at the fed. the interesting point here is an away way, the market did the work for the said. the interesting question is when will they raise, how many times this year? we have a chart that may suggest investors are ahead of the fed. 55228.k at g #vtb --blue, 10-year-year-old 10-year yield over the past five years. we see the 10-year yield is well above the index. the index is flipping up slightly, but relatively flat lines. hashe past, 10-year yield gone right back down to meet it
3:35 pm
heard the 10-year yield might be ahead of itself. perhaps we will see it move closer to 2% at some point in the first half of this year. joe: thanks, abigail. "what'd you miss?" let's dig deeply into the fomc's decision. bloomberg matt basel are is here with three charts you cannot miss, but before we dive into the charts, let's talk about the decision. what is your take away? matt: they were not interested in going out on a limb and signaling the next rate hike or anything, probably appropriate given where we are with the crosscurrents in the economy and the political situation. a slight marking up of the characterization of the economy, which makes sense, because we have gone good data, but other than that, no other changes. joe: it is a huge week for data -- we have the non-farm jobs report friday.
3:36 pm
let's go to the first chart including the adp report. your conclusion is job growth is slowing. what is the significance of this chart? matt: the white line shows year-over-year job growth according to the adp employment report. scarlet: better than expected. matt: yes, slightly better than expected, but on a year-over-year basis, we did not see an acceleration in job growth. the blue line shows the official government statistics -- the same measure we will get friday. you can see there has been a deceleration there lately. it is the slowest pace of job growth we have seen in about three years. this is one of the things we have been showing a lot -- the charts, comparing hard and soft data. the jobs report happens to be one of the hard data points that has been wobbly lately. we want to see that improve. we know that is the most important metric the fed likes to watch, anyway. scarlet: that, and average hourly earnings -- any sense of wage gains.
3:37 pm
you brought another chart, aggregate weekly payrolls compared to pce -- which does the fed rely on more? job: this chart looks at growth and adds the earnings component. it is looking at how fast jobs are growing, and also how fast wages are growing on top of it, and when you put the picture together, how fast is the total income going to workers growing? we have two different measures of that here in the white line and the yellow line. you can see because job growth has slowed, wages have not been growing fast enough to offset the decline. now we are in a situation where personal consumption growth, the blue line, is outpacing earnings growth. so, there is a questionnaire of how long can that sort of thing last? if earnings growth is slowing, can consumption growth continue to take off? joe: will people save us? matt: that is what we are seeing -- earlier this week we had data
3:38 pm
that showed the savings rate is going down. that is the question -- how much can the savings rate fall? we will see how this resolves itself on friday. joe: here's another chart -- g # 5749 in the terminal. it shows a contribution to gdp from businesses and consumers, and which one is pulling the load. matt: the blue line is business fixed investment growth -- growth. the white line has been the personal consumption growth we have seen in the previous chart. that is been carrying the day. aw it seems we are getting reversal in business investment, especially in the fourth quarter following the election. businesses seemed more positive. navy we have that coming back online. the question is not what happens to the consumer? are we had a point where the consumer starts to weaken, or can they continue to have that
3:39 pm
strength, put them together, and we get that above 2% growth rate? scarlet: the idea with the infrastructure spending plan, if it gets to $1 trillion, businesses would take the baton from the consumer? exactly, and ultimately that should filter through to a stronger consumer, putting people back to work, etc., for we have not gotten quite there. joe: guessing positive surveys from business -- does history suggest those surveys of businesses where they say things are looking good, feeling good, do translate into real data, or is it inconsistent? matt: it is a fascinating question because usually when we see big moves and survey measures that we have seen since the election, it is right when we are coming out of a recession. things are optimistic because they cannot get any worse, right? we see the same dynamic where we are several years into an
3:40 pm
economic expansion were people think it has been running long already. do you get the same dynamic, the boost in confidence, where it feeds through to higher economic activity at this advanced stage in the business cycle? scarlet: matthew boesler, thank you so much. coming up, jeff immelt says he is all for president trump's two 41 executive order on regulations, but the travel ban, something else. we'll hear from him in an exclusive interview. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
3:41 pm
3:42 pm
scarlet: and this is moments ago -- you are looking at marine one, the president arriving at dover air force base revive --
3:43 pm
are arriving for the remains of a u.s. soldier killed in yemen. this is marine one getting ready to depart for dover air force base. the pentagon has identified the deceased as william ryan owens, he was 36 years old. the first death to occur during the first counterterrorism operation of the trump presidency. joe:"what'd you miss?" jeffrey immelt, the chairman and ceo of general electric is weighing in on the job -- donald trump presidency so far. in an exclusive interview with his travels, he says ban on people from some muslim countries is proving problematic for multinational companies like ge. he relayed what he told employees after the executive order. jeff: i sent something out to employees because we have a lot of people that live outside of the united states, and they are
3:44 pm
confirmed -- concerned with what is going on. understand safety is important, but we also want to be able to work with the people that work for ge, and allow them to travel in and out of the united states. john: you oppose the ban. jeff: we said we understand the context, safety, but we think there are better ways to do it. we are not opposed to speaking out on that. you know, yesterday, the president sent out an executive order that said to regulations have to be canceled for everyone that gets added. i am all for that. too for going, we are speaking in the negatives, with outstanding back saying there are directions that will be very good for business. john: isn't that a threat to the advantages ge has built up? you specialized in hiring talent from around the world, i think you have 62% of your workforce from outside.
3:45 pm
certainly -- this limitation -- jeff: from a business standpoint, we are running the play the president has outlined. we are a huge out -- export appeared we are a small importer. the things the president talks about our talking to the things that people importing lots of products and exporting nothing. our place since the play the president wants to run. therefore, i think it is up to me to speak about how important it is that the u.s. have good relations with potential customers around the world, and we have people there -- you know , john, people there on the , saudi's,t are iraqis italians -- things like that. they can help us with local customers, provide that local face. john: in terms of building walls with mexico --does any of that helped manufacturing?
3:46 pm
jeff: i think that philosophically, you know, we believe in trade and we believe in the free flow of goods. an inherently, we do not think things like walls are good. that is maybe the macro answer. at the same time, what i would say is there is nothing wrong with president trump wanting to add manufacturing jobs in the united states. the president of china wants to add manufacturing jobs. the president of mexico wants to add manufacturing jobs. the chancellor of germany wants to add manufacturing jobs. his thrust on how do we help exporters, i think that is a good thing. john: what about the relationship with china? is the prospect of any kind of trade dispute with china -- does that worry you at all? jeff: it does, not just in the ge context, but the economic context. there is no big -- good case to
3:47 pm
be made with the two biggest economies on earth in a trade war. i think that relationship -- a bilateral relationship between the u.s. and china is significantly important for the whole world. so, that is one that i would be very strong on. deregulation,e of and the issue in particular here of corporate tax -- is that pointing, from america's of view first, not just ge's, is there something you wanted to do in that field? jeff: it will be a place where you have different camps. i respect walmart, but we will have a different perspective on tax reform than walmart. it does not mean they are a bad company, g is good, or vice versaer. we will have a different starting point. the voices need to be heard. if the president cannot act on tax reform with very public and
3:48 pm
-- with and republican a republican congress and republican presidency, that is a big miss. you had the joys of brexit. you have the possibility of marine le pen. are you confident about the future of europe? jeff: we never look at europe as europe -- we know the difference between france and germany. we were stopped in paris by a set of decisions that basically violated brussels rules, and we are, kind of, sitting there as an american company sucking our thumb in paris, and we had to fight our way out of paris. we had to fight our way out of brussels. it did not feel like the european union at that time. we have learned how to manage paradox as a company. have learned how to manage subtlety is a company. globalization -- people that see
3:49 pm
globalization from 30,000 feet at a resort or in a townhouse, a damk tank, don't know a thing about the way globalization really works. it is country by country, deal by deal. i wish it was all free trade, all that other stuff. that is not where we are. joe: that was general electric ceo jeff immelt in an exclusive interview from boston. hunterwe speak with rawlings, cornell university interim president. how trump's executive order on immigration is impacting the university? that is at 4:40 p.m. eastern. scarlet: russia reducing oil output by 117,000 barrels a day, putting it way ahead of schedule with his agreement with opec. the minister says it was double the amount originally planned. moscow is the largest of the 11
3:50 pm
non-opec producers that pledged forces with the cartel to produce -- reduce output. ratings company s&p cut under armour's credit rating to junk status, citing heavy competition and pressure on prices as the apparel company struggles through a salesman on. they lower the corporate credit -- corporate credit grade to double plea -- double b plus two triple b minus. naslund moving its u.s. headquarters from california to virginia. 750 jobs are associated with the move. the move brings its headquarters closer to customers. of chocolate maker says 85% its top customers and 75% of its factories are in the eastern u.s.. and that is your business flash update. joe: up next, facebook is
3:51 pm
releasing its fourth-quarter earnings right after the bell. we will break down the numbers in "numbers don't lie." this is bloomberg. ♪
3:52 pm
3:53 pm
scarlet: i am scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" facebook suggested the company would probably not keep up with explosive revenue growth for longer, and that raised eyebrows, causing the stock to fall, but the stock has since recovered. let's look at analysts ahead of the earnings in today's "numbers don't lie." the strong run is forecast to slow in 2017 mainly because of a large revenue base and peeking ad loads, the number of ads facebook allows for the number of news feed stores. advertising is essential -- it makes up 97% of its revenue with 84% of ad sales from mobile.
3:54 pm
you see mobile, the orange line, the real standout here. the social media giant, however, does expect its ability to push more ads to users to start to wayne by the second quarter. the user base is huge. as you can see here, daily active users, the yellow bar. mobile active users, that orange bar. bloomberg estimates show these numbers will likely rise further in the fourth quarter. facebook is capitalizing on all of these eyeballs. its average revenue per user the third his number could be helped by instagram as well. photo a isk owned inspectedp to see a surgeon revenuep in the next two years. one thing investors to be focused on is operating expenses. the number has grown over the past couple of years. the overall tone on the conference call may matter as
3:55 pm
well, maybe even more so than the results themselves. investors will be eager to hear if there will be continued caution or not from executives. we'll be following the facebook earnings release in just a few minutes. joe: thanks, scott. --thanks, scarlet. speaking of facebook, i want to dive into the terminal and what i call the facebook addiction index, a chart that divides the daily average users of facebook divided by the monthly average users -- how many people that check it out every month also check it out every day? the number has climbs. now it is up to nearly 66%. if you have a facebook account, there is a 66% chance you check it every single day. of course, we will get the q4 data, a election season, it will be fascinating to see the degree checked everyone
3:56 pm
day. scarlet: i would how many stopped doing that, because at one point it was getting too crazy. you can see the number has plateaued. it is the first day of february. you want to watch the retailers. the etf that tracks the retail sector tends to have a huge month in february. so, this is the heat map for x rt. you can see pretty big moves. you don't want to pay too much attention to 2017, because that is one day's worth of data, but before then, you can see monster moves. consistent 5.6% gain in the month of february. a 7.25% gain in 2014. the retailers do announce earnings in february, so perhaps a lot of the selling took place in january, as you can see on the heat map, and the people are
3:57 pm
ready to buy the shares. joe: love those kinds of charts. scarlet: the market close is next -- looking at the major indexes, we are not looking at major moves in the dow. up 27 points. the s&p gaining one point. this is bloomberg. ♪
3:58 pm
3:59 pm
scarlet: moments away from the
4:00 pm
closing bell. what'd you miss? day ofe change on the the federal reserve came out and said it is not doing anything of interest rates. they gave no indication of their next move. joe: after tuning in live on twitter, welcome to closing bell coverage. heard the opening bell. let's begin with our market minutes. point whener at this there really wasn't a lot to move on after the fed decision because it did not do anything. fed pretty quiet day for a day. janet yellen has a tendency to make a smooth, small ripple in the market. scarlet: i think that is the way they like it. utilities were the biggest laggards on the day. dominion a big loser here.
4:01 pm
they warn of a challenging year ahead. the worst days since august of 2011. there were some late headlines. didn't have as much of an effect on apple shares. apple is said to be developing more capable chips. to process more chips from intel. down.shares facebook results have just come out. let's take a look at the adjusted earnings per share. better than the average estimate and tops but we have seen last year. , $8.8 billion.e at the same time facebook has $5.8 billion in revenue. users, this is a big number everyone follows.
4:02 pm
1.2 3 billion users. the consensus estimate was $1.84 -- 1.8 4 billion users. joe: as you pointed out, all of the numbers have been beaten for facebook. daily average users coming ahead. revenue coming in at $8.81 billion versus $8.51 billion. all of the big numbers. is davidig deeper in sanrick and francisco, -- david let's start with you. the facebook train is not slowing down. >> scarlet: did you expect it to slow down? talking about the election, it
4:03 pm
might pull some people to go back. >> i don't think there was evidence of that. people are so obsessed with the users arefacebook going more regardless of the controversy. certainly it has hit the reputation and the elite intelligentsia media types. i don't think the average user was phased by that. they are continuing to build new businesses around video. they are doing an extraordinary job. instagram is doing well. they are a machine. >> they are on fire. 84%,h quarter, with analysts were looking for 85%. does that matter? guest: analyst looking for 85%. >> i don't think -- scarlet: it is pretty studied
4:04 pm
there. >> there are so many cylinders they are hitting on. you guys are good at digesting the numbers quickly. i expected a good quarter. they are continuing to roll forward. i don't think it will affect the company prospects and neither do investors. scarlet: on the earnings call, management said they expect 2017 to be an aggressive investment year. >> the single biggest thing they are investing in is new data centers. big will be their eighth one. these are multibillion-dollar projects. the other thing, they are investing a lot in is video. that is a huge growth area. they continue to invest and they think virtual reality is going to be a big part of their future.
4:05 pm
>> we should mention facebook lost that verdict. it lost a trial there with the jury awarding $500 million to the company's -- >> that has changed though. what is your take on these numbers? they look pretty fantastic. >> pretty consistent with what we have seen with google as well. continues to be wrapped up. there is a lot of room for growth left. last quarter on the conference call they did bring up the issue and how that is going to slow down. investors will look into that commentary again and see if this consistory user growth we have seen is alleviating those concerns are not. scarlet: why is the ad load
4:06 pm
slowing down? for facebook property specific. they are trying to strike a balance between the user experience and the advertising. they are hoping other properties, instagram will we saw a good ramp up my messenger, changed, it may have that. to strike the balance, they are controlling the ad load's. joe: the stock is trading at 13691 in after hours. was october 24 not long before the election. if it holds it is still bouncing around. it would be looking at an all-time high there. what is the big question. we are going to get the conference call. >> this question is a super
4:07 pm
interesting one in terms of near-term financial results. , this is the question, if they aren't putting more ads in the news feed can they charge more for the ads they are ready footing or create new kinds of ads where the ad prices are high and they can continue growing their ad revenue. so they can have more people they show the ads too. facebook gaining ground on apple. does facebook see it that way? >> to some degree they do. you get used to being compared to these other companies.
4:08 pm
google has such percentage of digital ads. to see themselves growing. they are competitive and more looking at snapchat as a company they worry about. snapchat's ad revenue is relatively significant but it's users are growing rapidly. joe: it is still not entirely clear what facebook video strategy is going to be for a while. there have been reports lately that maybe it is eating up the gas pedal -- using up the gas pedal on that front. >> we do add markets. we compare that to tv advertising. obviously once we crack this morerement cord, there is
4:09 pm
accurately measuring the effectiveness of this advertising. this equation can flip quickly. all of these initiatives including the partnership they announced, they are still trying to crack the code. the opportunity is big. do, the bar is very high. scarlet: winner we going to see a breakdown of these businesses? >> i don't have the direct line into the brain of the cfo. probably it is a ways off. they are not going to start announcing it until the numbers are really soft. >> is that a technical term? >> it is.
4:10 pm
estimates from fairly knowledgeable outsiders instagram may be making revenue, getting up close to 900 million annualized. nobody really knows. we don't know if there is any profit. i think they are very happy with instagram as a business, it is holding back the onslaught. the video thing, one interesting thing about video, they may be working on a set-top box that could go even beyond what was being said in the article. facebook would like to have an app that allowed you to watch all of your tv while you were on facebook. then you could share with your friends that episode of homeland that was so cool. ishink that is where it going for facebook down the road. once they get there they can do that.e deals to
4:11 pm
intelligence,berg thank you very much. scarlet: some breaking news on hewlett-packard enterprise. after it split off its hardware art of the company, acquiring start up, they are buying the company to enhance security at intelligent edge. we don't have any financial terms disclosed in the acquisition. hewlett-packard making an acquisition of a security startup. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
4:12 pm
4:13 pm
4:14 pm
joe: apple is designing a new laptops thatre would take on more of the functionality currently handled by intel processors. let's bring in mark gurman. this is his scoop. how big of a deal is this that apple wants to design more of its own ships and not spend money with intel? >> this is not taking intel out completely replacing it. if is apple stepping up its chip augmenting intel and beginning to replace intel by replacing particular features. they used a apple design processor to power the touchscreen bar and security around it. now they are working on a next-generation version of it.
4:15 pm
>> this is interesting. investing more in hardware. how does this fit in with its point increase revenue from services? >> mark is the leading expert on these matters. companys always been a that has uniquely sophisticated synthesis of hardware and software. a huget really build services business unless it retains its hand in hardware. jim's is not a part of its business that was a huge business up to now. nowamount of cash they have is so vast that they can do things they might never consider before. maybe they are developing something to increase their
4:16 pm
bargaining leverage. lot of incentive, even to spend hundreds of millions. >> do we know that they will be successful? it is one thing to be working on a chip but theoretically it we could do this more efficient i efficiently. >> they are not going to reduce the user experience. they started working on this last year in terms of developing it with the motherboards that go into the new macbook pros. we might see this beginning this year. the chip has been successful in terms of the graphic and the ipad.
4:17 pm
this is the next step in the exploration of making its chip business core to its overall user experience. if they build their own ship, they can tune it all together. it makes them more difficult to finally tune everything. they are trying to improve the power efficiency on the thin laptops. now they can integrated more tightly. final question, would you be worried that apple is going to find a way to replace your chip as well? >> they have really big businesses. the mask is a small potatoes market. i don't think they should worry
4:18 pm
beyond how much they already worry. >> thank you very much. quickt: let's get you a check on how facebook shares are trading in after hours. we told you help the profit and sales beat estimates. the stock is up 2.4%. we are waiting for the start of the conference call. management has said that they expect 2017 to be an aggressive investment year. there is going to be focused on operating expenses. joe: the 2 billion mark on monthly average users. what'd you miss? federal interest rates are left unchanged. confidence has risen post donald trump's election. for more on what we can expect
4:19 pm
from the fed in the red to come, bring in matthew, great to have you on the show. what is your big take away? >> we don't think the fed was looking to send major signals. fed policy this year, our chief economist is looking for two fed rate hikes. that is more in less in-line what the market is thinking this time. they are going to look at the data very closely as we move forward throughout the year. one of the interesting aspects in my opinion was the fed is no longer blaming well inflation rates on the rise in the dollar and the decline in energy prices that we saw over the last several years.
4:20 pm
they expect inflation to hit their target by the end of the year. we are not going to see the fed is projecting in this point. >> you mentioned the dollar. donald trump has been juggling currencies. the message is the dollar is too strong. him are the risks of continuing to intervene in the market like this? >> i don't necessarily think that he is intending to intervene in the market. we think the dollar is strengthening on its own volition. there are plenty of reasons for the dollar to strengthen. the prospect of tighter fed policy is one of them. we think the dollar is going to do its own thing. the dollar will strengthen through the course of the year. if the fed does hike interest rates, we can see a stronger dollar. there is a different debate
4:21 pm
about what is really going on. whether this is driven by commodities mostly or if there is a core aspect to it. there is a question of whether we are going to see a sustained rise other than the blips that we have seen along the big decline. >> at the headline level it pretty much is about the rounding the base of facts. we focus on the core. the federal reserve is focusing on the core. inflation,ok at core the data we have gotten has been disappointing. core pc inflation is only going up. there are certain factors playing in. to 10%. to get
4:22 pm
joe: he is going to stick with us. we will be looking at manufacturing pricing data and other issues rated to inflation.
4:23 pm
4:24 pm
scarlet: back with matthew, head , welobal interest rates want to take a deep dive into the bloomberg. what you see is the total u.s. debt weighted average. you see the aligned with the average historical average since 1980. you can see the average has been increasing since the aftermath of the financial crisis. let me extend this a little bit.
4:25 pm
it is projected to continue year 2021 andthe continue moving. there has been talk from treasury secretary nominee, now confirmed, steven mnuchin about these superlong bonds. for to is not for me say. if you polled investors about bond, the longer duration community would tell you we need bonds, we need liquidity in the 20 year part of the curve. start there and then make a talk about longer issues. at this time we are not expecting the weighted average of treasury issuance to follow that blue line on the chart. the marketissues is needs more treasury builds. the extension that we have seen
4:26 pm
has been more related to the .ownsizing of coupon issuance this is a new administration coming in. they may have different priorities. if they've pulled the market and i think they will, the market is not going to come out unanimously for 40 and 50 year bonds. scarlet: mnuchin is not yet confirmed. he is expected to be confirmed. >> more and more manufacturers say they are playing more for raw goods. this is the commodity rebound. what about pricing power. do think companies have the power to raise prices in this?
4:27 pm
>> people feel they have the ability to pay for higher prices. we have not seen that. we have seen good prices deflating. core goods prices deflating in the united states. >> we are here with matthew, he is going to stick with us. and particularly the unwinding. it has been a big question. check, stock is still higher after the company reported profit in sales that .eat estimates facebook is up by 2.5%. 133.we are at 28. scarlet: this is bloomberg.
4:28 pm
4:29 pm
4:30 pm
joe: we are back with matthew, at morgan stanley. a big debate that we did not get more clarity on today, what is the future of the fed balance sheet built up during the crisis. where do you see that going? timing, if we the get three rate hikes between now and march of 2018, that would be the right time for the fed to come out and announce basis asian of their agency mortgage back securities reinvestment. we are not anticipating the fed
4:31 pm
to announce a cessation of their treasury reinvestment. that is a bit out of consensus. perhaps more than a bit. we are in the minority on that view. we've got some time in our view just over a year before we would expect to see the balance sheet begin to roll down. look at the the fed is a light blue line. it has stayed stable. the ecb continues to expand. i wonder, what kind of problem does this currently pose for the central bank? how is it holding us back? >> i don't think it is holding us back. . would side with the fed it is supporting accommodated financial positions to continue
4:32 pm
to grow at a moderate pace. it is something necessary to keep downward pressure on the unemployment rate is we say the fed would like to see it run below the natural rate. necessary at it is some point over the coming 12-18 months. the fed will allow that to draw down. it will be the right time by the time we get there. joe: when we look back at this period, on the crisis and post crisis, and this $4 trillion balance sheet, what will be the a depressionict as fighting technique? >> it is impossible to predict the counterfactual. we don't know what would have happened. i would say we are going to look back on it fondly.
4:33 pm
perhaps investors in risky financial assets will certainly look back on it fondly and the fed did the right thing supporting the economic recovery -- recovery we have seen. scarlet: do you think the trump administration will put any pressure on? >> i don't know what the trump administration will end up doing on that front. i have enough confidence in the institution of the federal even ifto suggest that it was the case that they felt pressure they would not react. the fed is an independent body. they're going to do what is best in the context of the environment in which it is growing. quickwant to get you a check of metlife. fourth quarter missing estimates. aalysts were looking for
4:34 pm
dollar 35. $17.2 billion was the consensus estimate. that is sagging a bit down in after-hours trade. joe: theoretically an insurer should like to see this rising the core of any insurance business model. in the meantime a disappointment here. let's get more insight into facebook's results. carolyn just got off of the phone. what were the biggest takeaways. facebook and using how they are using facebook to get onto mobile. this is phenomenal numbers. 78% jump in earnings per-share. that is a full run.
4:35 pm
pretty phenomenal numbers. revenue of 50%. mobile dominating. businesses are increasingly making the transition to mobile. usinglion businesses facebook. >> what about investment? they warned this would continue to ramp up, this would be an aggressive year. analysts are sent you will want to focus on the growth forecast at facebook. >> they are not edging out. they are not backing away. they say our outlook remains exactly the same. they are going to be investing aggressively. they want to be investing. they say for longer-term business revenue growth is going to be slower than previous. they are going to be investing in headcount.
4:36 pm
it is accelerating to 17,000 people, up one third. it is going to accelerate more in 2017. finally, great earnings. good revenue. not all good news for facebook, losing in court with oculus. what is the story here? >> it is a $500 million deal. that is a quarter of the price tag they paid in 2014. this is a big loss for mark zuckerberg. this is not true, he says. the case surrounded oculus being built on stolen technology. they have been saying and the judge went with nymac.c -- ze
4:37 pm
a quarter of the price tech, that has to smart. scarlet: thank you for your insight regarding this latest quarter. let's get to mark crumpton. >> president trump is aboard marine one on an unannounced trip to honor the remains of a u.s. service member killed sunday during a special forces raid in yemen. william owens died the first counterterrorism opt -- operation mr. trump approved as president. the raid left other u.s. commandos wounded and 14 militants dead. the republican-led senate has confirmed rex tillerson as donald trump's secretary of state.
4:38 pm
most in the democrats opposed the nomination, angering republicans who considered the former exxon mobil ceo to be highly qualified for the post. tillerson's ties to russia and his stand on moscow has been a point of contention. the national security advisers of the administration is putting iran on notice after 80 test of a ballistic missile. the trump administration condemned such actions by iran. the missile test ended with a failed reentry into the earth's atmosphere. hospital,of the george h.w. bush and barbara will handle the pregame coin toss at the super bowl. roger goodell made the announcement today. released fromntly houston methodist hospital where the former president receive treatment for pneumonia and mrs.
4:39 pm
bush was treated for bronchitis. the super bowl is in houston on sunday. global news powered by 2600 journalists and analysts. i'm mark crumpton. scarlet: thank you. joins up, hunter rawlings us. his take on the immigration crackdown, and its impact on cornell. ♪
4:40 pm
4:41 pm
scarlet: what'd you miss? last academic year the seven countries in terms executive orders sent 17,354 students to study in the u.s.. joining us to discuss this travel ban is hunter rawlings.
4:42 pm
he joins us from ithaca, new york. thank you for joining us today. give us a sense of the complications this creates for cornell when it comes to students and faculty. >> the main problem was confusion. no one was sure what the facts were and it seemed to be changing every hour or so. no one could good a grip on what it meant. ,hat was the first take away total confusion. in the sense that things were going in the wrong direction. that has caused a lot of stress for our students from abroad. some were caught abroad. others were here but did not know what it meant. >> tell us what it means for , what is theisions conversation on that now. >> it is too soon to know. we have continued to make
4:43 pm
decisions as we normally do. the backdrop is obviously hard to decipher at this point. we have to remain a little wary. we are pursuing students the way we always have end they are especially important to us. we are magnets for talents these days an american research universities and we bring a lot of talent to the country. study thirds of students stem subjects. some continue to form companies here. university, talk about the ability to attract and retain talent in this environment. is it diminished? >> it is too early to say. it is not good news so far. the confusion is what is causing most trouble now.
4:44 pm
magnet forare a talent, all of these research universities trawl top faculty, top students from abroad. many go into the stem fields which are crucial not just for knowledge but also for the american economy. scarlet: donald trump works america first where does that stand? >> we have a lot of homegrown talent, that is for sure. we have great students. aer the past 20 years or so lot of talent is coming from abroad and all you have to do is look at the nobel prize winners, look at the leaders in scientific and engineering , you see thefields talent that comes from anywhere these days. you don't want to restrict the supply of talent in a knowledged based age. >> donald trump has scolded the defense sector for fighter
4:45 pm
jets that are too expensive. what is the higher education sector doing to get ahead of the president tweeting about education being unaffordable? >> fortunately schools like cornell have more students trying to get in then we can take. where you a market can pick and choose and we do. that goes with the territory and that is true with the other great research universities. we do compete with universities and other countries. great britain, germany. france. all across the world there is an open competition and a fierce one for top students and faculty. especially those who are creating the new knowledge that leads to economic development. >> there is a lot of competition. do tuition prices need to be so high?
4:46 pm
i wonder if the president is going to target tuition prices. fortunately the middle class can afford to get into our schools. there is such a variety of higher education in this country we don't have a system of higher education the way most countries do. we compete with each other for students. there are all kinds of schools to go to. small, large, church schools, small, large, church schools, public schools. private. -- >> if your donors want a tax induction. what are your thoughts on this
4:47 pm
mechanism? on this kind of approach? >> our donors have always been generous with financial aid. they like supporting students. one of the things that is true you go to cornell and come from a family with small means, you get help. we met students based on their ability, not their ability to pay. rather on their mental ability. we try to make it possible for every student who gets in to cornell to come. that is a pledge that we make and so do our peers in the u.s. research sector. it is been a track record that is quite remarkable. if you look nice much of the sticker price but the price people wind up paying it has been study. scarlet: are these restrictions on gifts, research, is this an effective way of addressing the cost of higher education? >> it is certainly not. donors want to invest in the
4:48 pm
future. this is an investment. a sensible investment to help students. to help cornell. to help the united states of america. to give him a tax incentive is important. especially now when a lot of the public support for research universities is going downhill and has been for two years. we have to counteract that somehow. scarlet: hunter rawlings, joining us from ithaca. thank you so much. joe: facebook shares are gaining in late training. ceo facebook gains, its gains. he has made $3 billion this evening with the stock surge. $59fortune reaching
4:49 pm
billion. quite a good evening for mark zuckerberg. this is bloomberg. ♪
4:50 pm
4:51 pm
joe: markets have rallied since the presidential election on talk of tax cut's and reflation. how much does president trump have to deliver on the things he promised before markets get disappointed? mark.d >> he has to deliver a lot to make up for the damage that has been done. in late november, the market was focused on what they wanted to hear. the parts of the offering they were excited about, they are
4:52 pm
ignoring the trade isolationist threats. trump has delivered much more on the protectionist threats. that is quite worrying. >> was in this predictable? it always seemed like the taxes and fiscal stimulus was an afterthought. >> it is interesting you say that. he is doing what he promised. the market did not expect him to do what he promised. the market was convinced he is going to tone down his extremist comments and focus on the market. he has not shown that at all. he has came at the borders more than anything else. >> you are a former trader. explain this psychology where people pick out a certain story and then get into that story
4:53 pm
even if the facts don't seem to back it up? the markets are driven by narratives more than anything else. that, just into seeing trump will be brilliant for markets, we still see it talked about. it is now starting to be doubted. we see no sign of this infrastructure package. little sign of this tax package going to come through. markets are still talking about reflation still good. it might still be good. at the moment markets need to change the narrative and focus on the fact that trump is undermining brand usa. we have seent like something selloff yet. markets are pretty closed -- close to their all-time highs. what would be that moment what
4:54 pm
people say there really is a big gap between what we expected and what is going to happen. of the things i am wondering about as well. markets have been trading well. it is nothing to drastic yet. the moment it might be a technical thing. markets are very complacent. see more of a selloff. at the moment i am not seeing the sudden catalyst. what be worrying is if they impose one of the border taxes on mexico or china. that would be a big blow. >> it doesn't seem like there is any other story right now besides u.s. politics. every discussion circles back to trump. you see a lot of different things. ,f there is one other thing
4:55 pm
besides the u.s. administration what would you say that it is? >> unfortunately you are right. it is dominating everything else. the other story is european problems are growing again and they are being overlooked amid the truck twitter storm. the situation in greece and french elections are getting more worrying. butways am quite complacent i'm certain to get more worried. joe: that was mark, bloomberg macro strategist from singapore. scarlet: coming up, what you need to do to get for tomorrow's trading day. ♪
4:56 pm
4:57 pm
scarlet: u.s. stocks closing modestly higher after the federal reserve decided not to annge anything, didn't get indication on whether it will change. joe: facebook rising to what will be an all-time high if it opens there tomorrow. beating every number imaginable. scarlet: and overnight cosco
4:58 pm
will release its january sales revenue. it always does that. joe: i will be looking at the bank of england tomorrow announcing its policy decision. scarlet: we will bring you that decision and mark carney's news conference live. amazon chipotle release results tomorrow. itssche bank releases earnings as well. joe: another big day for earnings. scarlet: thank you for watching. joe: have a great evening, this is bloomberg. ♪
4:59 pm
the senate has approved rex tillerson as donald trump secretary of state.
5:00 pm
democrats skipped a vote to advance oklahoma attorney general scott pruitt's nomination to lead the epa and they did vote the same with a vote for mick mulvaney to have the omb. a panel of the nominees through emergency action. the ok'd steven mnuchin and tom price. the senate has voted to proceed to consider that the devos -- betsy devos' nomination. two republican say they will not vote for her. donald trump's choice for the supreme court met with senators ahead of his confirmation vote. the president announced his nomination last night. george h.w. bush and first lady barbara will handle the coin toss at the super bowl. mr. and mrs. bush were released from the houston metho


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on