tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg February 21, 2017 11:00am-12:01pm EST
on bloomberg markets. ♪ we are going to take you from new york to london in the next hour, and covering stories out of washington and sydney. here are the top stories we're following. does how bleak is the outlet for hsbc? we are going to hear from the cfo next. vonnie: what do world leaders think the direction president trump is taking in the united states? we will hear from the prime minister of australia. report writing revenue as commodity demand surges, especially -- we will hear from the ceos of both companies. mark: have a look at european equities trading right now, 30 minutes until the end of the
trading session. all of these equities are rising in the left-hand column, all of those currencies are falling. talk of fed rate hikes spurring money into the dollar today, especially by president patrick harker. the bond yields you can see rising across the board. group,ntinental hotels shares rising to a record. , ity a quarter of 1% announced plans to pay a special dividend of $400 million and reported a 4% increase in profitability last year. the measure of occupancy and rates, revenue per available room climbed. the company's 5032 hotels are based in the americas, the second-biggest growth in red par growth. 36% in the last 12
months. as we talk about the upcoming french presidential election, it is important to look at calls and puts. investors are piling into options protecting against declines on the cac 40 with the cac at its lowest level since 2014. you can see here relative to bullish calls, the latest polls show the anti-euro candidates like marine le pen are gaining ground, and the independent front runner. also today, the yield on the french 10 year has moved above ireland's 10 year, which is rated for notches lower when it comes to ratings from the ratings agencies. that is the first time that has happened since at least 2013. was more than 10 percentage points higher than france's. how things change.
let's have a look at what is happening to other matters today . on a macro basis, we have had some fascinating eurozone pmi, a gauge for economic activity rising to the highest level in the zero -- in the eurozone in all six years. this is the composite index that shows the manufacturing and services gauge. is this finally evident that the economy is picking up speed and is broad-based? national gauges shows that france outpaced germany and the first time since 2012, a development that could signal growth in the region is becoming broad-based. that would be very, very significant. 90 minutes into the trading day in new york, abigail doolittle has the latest. abigail: gains for major 500, and the dow, s&p nasdaq all trading higher after last week's rally.
we have records for the three major averages. and nasdaq are on pace for their fifth weekly gain in a row. 500 is up about 4%, on pace for test monthly performance since march of last year. when we hopped on to the bloomberg, it really puts this into context. this is a look at the three major averages since the election. we see big gains in the nasdaq and dow. we have this big jump higher after the inauguration, so stocks have been reinvigorated after the initial postelection pop. the idea that trumps administration will reinflate ,nd reinvigorate the economy with these gains you have to hope they will deliver in terms of a tax plan and other policies. it will be interesting to see if there is some -- ahead.
lots of movers and the retail space, we are looking at monza .ee's -- mondelez they all fell last week after kraft heinz announced it put in a big did for unilever and now that that was taken off the table, summer training higher today. some bloomberg intelligence analysts say these are probably a little bit too u.s. based. rounding it out we are looking at some strength for these retailers -- walmart, acs, and tiffany's all trading higher. -- macy's and tiffany's all trading higher. quarter it was a great and the slide down to the first quarter was a bit of a blip in the trend. a bloomberg intelligence believesays she macy's is setting up for more weakness. tiffany is trading higher after tiffany and janet partners have
appointed two new members to the board. plunging afteres the fourth-quarter estimate that missed estimates on a price dropping revenue. asked if he thought investors were missing anything in the report. >> we have had a good operating performance in 2016. in the fourth quarter, we just an impairment on the goodwill in our european private bank, and that along with the u.k. bank levy contribute to an operating loss in the fourth quarter. in the first three quarters of the year we had good operating performance and that was sustained in the third quarter, but it was impacted by a couple of significant items coming through. anna: a lot of analysts are interested in whether you are able to change the course of revenue growth at hsbc, whether you are able to really boost and
start growing revenue on the full-year basis at hsbc. are you confident you are able to do that? >> we are encouraged by some of the loan growth coming through, particularly in our asian markets in the fourth quarter 2016, creating some momentum. over the course of 2016, an interesting year, we managed to hold the revenues pretty much flat to slightly up in our largest business, commercial banking, and grew revenues in our global markets thinking business. that was certainly very encouraging. retail bank wealth management had a tough start to the year compared to a very strong start in 2016 on the back of the hong kong shanghai stock connect. overall the progress that the market and the business has does it gets demonstrated in 2016 has been very encouraging. the loan growth in the fourth
quarter gets us off to a good start in 2017. anna: you are clearly confident enough to be returning more cash to shareholders. if investors are disappointed by the one billion, will there be more to come in 2017? >> i certainly would not read too much into the one billion we have announced today, as we did veryn our release this is much related to the completion of the sale of our brazilian business which we closed out in july of last year. we returned to .5 million in the second half of last year and another billion will be a total of three and a half billion between august last year and now . i certainly would not encourage any of our investors to read very much into the one billion. we clearly have a strong common equity tier ratio, well above the top end of the range that we targeted in terms of ensuring that we are well capitalized in our businesses around the world.
we continue to focus on investing capital in the growth of our business. we will certainly contemplate as we have done, share buybacks. anna: sorry, carry on. >> one other thing to note is in 2016, the dividends in respect of the year are little over $10 billion to our shareholders. sokept the dividend flat, they returned to the shareholders in 2016 has been a very strong performance, both in terms of cash and total shareholder returns. anna: how do you evaluate buybacks question mark if you look at what the share price has done since the brexit vote, more than 50%. how do you evaluate buybacks when there is other things you could be doing with that money? what is the analysis? 13.6%are sitting in a common equity to one ratio. as we shared with investors -- tier one ratio.
we set out for a of 12% to 13%. when we were operating comfortably above that and with well-capitalized subsidiaries around the world, supporting growth in the markets we have targeted, we certainly contemplate that and the most appropriate use of it across really three main dimensions. first and foremost, investing in the business and growth, second, the sustainability of the dividend in the long-term, and the opportunity to return cash to shareholders in the form of a buyback. in the second half of last year and now in the first quarter this year, looking at the propensity of our businesses to grow, we concluded it was the opportunity on the back of the sale of our brazilian business to bring some of that -- return some of that back to our shareholders. protectionism is something of a theme as we move into 2017.
are you preparing the finances at all for maybe some trouble if we trade financing? see anti-globalization and protectionism measures being brought in? >> there is no doubt about it, we live in interesting times geopolitical just geopolitically and from a regulatory point of view. this is what hsbc does, we operate in 70 countries around the world. our businesses close -- cover 90% of global trade. much in havingry the products and capability across that network to support the customers regardless of the environment in which we are operating. what we have done for many years, and certainly the last six years i have been in this role it is fair to say it has been interesting. we continue to adapt the business model and the network to support the customers across the network. if it becomes more interesting
than it already is, i am confident in our ability with the capital strength we have got to adapt to that and support customers' needs across the network. cfo speakingc exclusively to bloomberg television earlier. vonnie: breaking news, legg mason may be the subject of a takeover offer. shares of legg mason are up over 5%, about six and have percent on that news. up about five and a half percent after an insider from the company has received a takeover offer. courtney donohoe is in our newsroom. president trump says a new immigration order will be coming out very soon to replace the one blocked by a federal appeals court. the homeland security department has issued a pair of memos on immigration the calls for a crackdown on undocumented immigrants.
thousands more for border control agents to be hired. in asia, china's commerce ministers as a trade war with the u.s. should not be an option. he told beijing that disagreements are inevitable but you -- the u.s. and china can overturn it does overcome trade friction you'd british lawmakers want more business transparency when it comes to the overseas territories. parliament blocked but -- backed legislation to learn the true owners of companies registered in places like the virginia -- the british virgin islands and the cayman islands. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. mark: thank you very much. anglo american out with better than estimated earnings. they tell bloomberg what is next
vonnie: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i vonnie quinn. mark: live from london i am mark barton, roughly 14 minutes from the european close. saying nonprofit is jumping after prices surged on increased demand in china. anglo-americans profit more than doubled last year. bloomberg spoke to the chief executives of both. anna edwards asked mark cutirani for his outlook. mark c.: they both look pretty
good at the moment in terms of prices, probably some downside this year but the cost will be robust. we have gotten our cost from $77 to $29. i think the metals could do much better. we are hoping they do. diamonds, we think the market is starting to study so probably some downside but upside in the metals. anna: do you have some aggressive assumptions on what donald trump will spend on infrastructure or what the chinese economy will do to see metal prices go higher from here? .ark c.: no, not really i think underlying demand and the fundamentals are pretty good. the lesson we have learned over the last few years is try not to rely on others to create your fortune. you have got to put your own future in your own hands and that is what we have done the last few years so i'm not going to try to forecast mr. trump or china. we want to be a competitive
business improving our margins and want to make sure the future is in our hands. some of his policies might have an impact on your business in this sense of protectionism and the rhetoric around that, anti-globalization sentiment, all of that. saideo of bhp protectionism is an ill wind. is it an ill wind? mark c.: i think the protectionist conversation is a concern in conversation, but let's be frank. global trade has been a great thing for most people in the world. what we have got to do is make sure everybody comes along with us and that is important. in our case, when i talk about mr. trump, his position on infrastructure in the u.s. could certainly be a good omen for the mining industry, but beyond that i would not try and forecast any
of his other positions. i think common sense will prevail, people will see the benefits of global trade, but we certainly have to do a better job in making sure everybody comes along with us. vonnie: that was anglo-american ceo mark cutirani. we also spoke with angier mckenzie. manus cranny asked him about the focus on debt reduction. andrew: the caution is based on the fact that some prices are now a little higher than we would have expected them to be around now, and longer than we would see them being in the long-term, although we are obviously heavily invested in things like petroleum and copper where we see price risk to the upside. the other caution, it is a very uncertain world. just listening to the previous part of your program, we are not quite sure where the trump administration is going to settle down and what that might mean for world economic growth, but we are slightly alarmed by
the sentiment around reductionism because ultimately that will have a bad debt around protectionism because ultimately -- around protectionism because that will have a bad impact on world trade. i do not think there is any ifs or bots. >> i want to highlight two metals you have deep exposure to, copper and iron. , even yourices yourself are skeptical about a rally. how do you protect your cash flow? how do you hedge that? the way we protect our cash flow is protect our margin. we have already driven our production costs quite low but believe we could drive them lower with some things we have underway, so that is the best way. at the time, our productivity agenda will both reduce our unit cost and increase volumes.
in that way, even though prices are falling we can look after our gross margins. >> so volume is there for the price. copper is very different, citi thing they see a hundred thousand dollars a ton or more before the end and copper. andrew: do you see that? maybe not as quick as the end of the decade but certainly into the next decade. when we look forward to the itwth and demand for copper, seems to be the new supply that will come on. copper is one of those metals that even if china is moving into more of a consumption phase , it will want to use more electricity and most of that will often go down a copper wire. that is why in our investment program going forward it is much more biased to adding copper production than iron ore. jonathan: let's talk crude.
your shale assets, is now a good time to sell? andrew: i do not believe so. because i think the price could go higher. i also feel that in our shale business we are working very hard to drive down our costs, and by driving down our costs at the same time as we see the price rising we are getting ready probably. we are doing some experiments. we are fracking our uncompleted wells. to put we will start more risk back as the price improves and the costs go down here did i do not think we would get that kind of value if we were to rush right now, at least for our core assets which we value very highly. we also have a number of offshore, conventional investments underway with bp.
we are investing in a big project in the gulf. we of course won the competition to be the first foreign company back into mexico. week's time -- in a i will be going to sign that deal and that is more growth on our oil production. vonnie: that was ceo andrew mackenzie. mark: more than six months after the brexit vote, mark carney continues to defend the central bank's actions ahead of the referendum. ♪
speaking to the treasury select committee he suggested the boe will get no praise for alleviating risk. >> success is not working in terms of the financial stability around the referendum, the bank did take some serious steps in order to mitigate those. if we have not done that there would've been macro economic consequences and it is important that we did. i think that we just have to accept that we are never going to get any credit for it. mark carneyvernor under fire from the treasury select committee. have a look at where treasury markets are bearing -- fairing four minutes from the close. this is bloomberg. ♪
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the third day of gains, the highest since december 2. last to talk about today starting with u.k. stocks. we will talk about valuation for the ftse relative to the euro stocks 50. since its post brexit vote low the ftse has risen by 20%. u.k. stocks are trading near their cheapest levels in two years relative to their european peers. this stems largely from soaring 50 -- estimates for ftse for ftse. 31% this year, a mining and energy firms doubling, while forecasting a 2% increase for european stock companies. what a day for mining companies, starting with bhp reporting better than anticipated estimates.
signaling there is growing confidence in the mining industry across the world, better than expected dividend and the bond buyback. improved global bywth will be limited political and certainty. merkel -- profits more than doubled last year. it no longer needs to sell assets to reduce debt, what a difference a year makes for anglo-american. it shrank its business to a fraction of its former fine. many assets at anglo are earmarked for sales and are generating plenty of cash. since the 13 year low last january, anglo lost 500%.
bhp rio up 130%. quite astonishing. quite a bigth hsbc, day, down 6.8%, the biggest decline on a closing basis since 2009. fourth quarter missed estimates on a surprise drop in revenue. the bank will boost cost-cutting measures and initiate a buyback. the only one that has not risen since brexit is lloyds banking group. vonnie: so much happening in europe, a lot happening here to bank. this -- too. we really are waiting on more details from the trump administration about things that will affect the financial markets, but that is not to say that things are not moving. the dollar index is resuming its longer-term strengthening, and i picks -- i picked the dxy because the yen and euro have a bigger stake.
not so much the ruble. stronger oil prices, 54.40 for wti, up 2%. a similar pattern with brent. 2.42%, aear yield little bit of buying in treasuries. let's go to my terminal. emerging markets for a change, because you look at euros. have a look at what is going on in the more emerging of the market. in equity markets, eastern european companies -- countries are doing very well. south korea is higher. this is an interesting story to watch and we will have a closer look in the next several days. , upbonds of china as well 5.6 basis points for the 10 year. abigail doolittle has a deeper look at retail stocks in the u.s., they are moving. abigail: nice strength for the
retail stocks, including walmart and home depot. they are among the top of the dow and s&p 500. walmart beat by more than 1%. analysta bloomberg saying it is clear the company's strategies are working, focusing more on online and cost-cutting. a big earnings beat by a percent after a company did, it looks like spending continued. macy's is trading nicely higher on the day, but on the year we are looking at a 7% decline. they beat earning estimates and this decline or flex the fact that it was a week holiday season. a bloomberg intelligence analyst is telling us she expects the week trades of 2016 to continue into this year. in 2016 were down 2%
to 3%. this chart really shows what is going on, the 10 year chart of macy's and white. we see that same student -- 6%re sales were down about and this last quarter down about 2.7%. it looks like this weakness and sale -- same-store sales is really dragging on the stock so that, --y can fix vonnie: thank you for that deep dive. courtney donohoe is in our newsroom. courtney: european commission president jean claude juncker warns the u.s. -- u.k. will have to pay a hefty bill when it leaves the you. he said the british people must know they will not be allowed to leave for free. it is estimate the brexit bill could run $64 billion.
sees japan asn the ultimate business opportunity. japanese lawmakers voted in december to legalize casinos, and he would like to build a resort featuring 10,000 slot machines, four times as many as he has in singapore. the divided u.s. supreme court has cleared the way for the execution of a convicted murderer in alabama. he tried to block the state for using a sedative linked to botched executions. justices sonya senate minority whip steven mayor and stephen brian said they would've taken it. presss holding a conference about a discovery beyond the solar system. theis speculation announcement will be about planets capable of supporting life. they have studied a so-called xo planet and have looked for clues whether life could exist beyond the earth. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600
journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. donohoe.tney this is bloomberg. mark: the euro is having a tough day despite the strong pmi data. attributing fed harker's hawkish comments. let's bring in strategist and blogger, richard jones. what a great option. i today. -- i wasound out reading you today. often i find out all of my information by reading you. this is a wonderful chart, showing how the 10 year yield and france has gone above the irish 10 year yield. it was only a few years ago that was 10% higher. richard: we are going to have to include france and the periphery
just in the periphery. that is quite an amazing chart and it shows you how much political anxieties are waiting on investors, and driving the french yields higher. as we spread to germany where the september 2012 levels above irish yields, we just cannot escape the political risk in europe. the real sense of anxiety. mark: we are not near the sort highs, are we? richard: no, nowhere near that. mark: that is what we have to watch out for. highest level since 2012, that sounds dramatic. richard: i think we need a really big surprise, and i think a le pen victory on the second ballot would be enough to blow the spreads out. the fact that we are edging has beend it consistent and ongoing since
beginning of this year, that is when it really started to take .ff, it is significant we need to watch political developments not only in france, that we have an election in germany and the netherlands. they really are driving markets for the moment. vonnie: we talk about the french 10 year and the spread of the german bund getting wider and wider. not crisis levels but definitely levels to watch. at the same time, the overall is -- 1.09%. is this just investors speculating or is there something to worry about? richard: in terms of what is driving it, you certainly will have some speculation but a lot of it i think is hedging. a lot of it is perhaps reducing exposure to france and putting that exposure into what is perceived as the safe haven of germany. you are right to highlight that
even though we have pushed out quite far in the spread and actual french yields have risen, we are nowhere near the levels we are seeing in portugal. yes, it is cause for concern but as mark and i were saying, we are not going up to levels during the crisis. by thisi am fascinated 30 basis point 10 year yield in germany. if you give your euros to the german government they are already weaker and you are getting 30 basis points in 10 years. is anybody actually doing that or do they claim a roll down trade? richard: i think they were doing that when those yields were below zero so if they loved it below zero, they probably really love it above zero. i am jesting a little bit. i do not think investors are putting money into germany because of the yield but because they view it as being safe. in switzerland with negative yields, that is not what you are looking for.
you are looking for safety, and that is what is driving bund yields. they are perceived to be safer than france. mark: why is the euro falling given the strength of today's pmi data? strong out of germany and france , france overtaking germany. what is going on with the euro? richard: i think because politics comes to economics. if you look at various euro pairs, euro-sterling is low. mark: why is the euro losing? richard: i think euro political risks are catching up what we have seen and the u.k. we have seen a massive fall in the pound since the brexit referendum but the european risks are coming to the fore. i think it is because of these political risks. mark: i was talking about an life earlier, the comment was
about mr. harker and parker has spoken, three rate hikes this year. knewchard said, we already he was pretty hawkish. why was everyone jumping on the dollar bandwagon today, was that post holiday euphoria? richard: i think it was. i think risk have been reduced ahead of the long weekend and now that we have come through the other side you get a little bit of risk reinstatement. i think harker probably had a little bit to do with it but i do not see his comments as being a game changer for the march meeting. we still have probabilities far too low for that meeting. 43, 44, we are back at 38, what is going on? richard: i think it is partly to do with some of the harker comments. the most important thing i think
is that we have two rate hikes priced in 2017 that is been fairly consistent over the past few weeks, and the dollar has not shifted. we need to look at the accumulation of them. mark: is march live? richard: it is live that investors do not think they will do anything. mark: richard jones, do follow him. vonnie: a great function and great commentary. coming up, an exclusive interview with australia's prime minister martin turnbull. he discusses his relationship with donald trump. this is bloomberg. ♪
martin turnbull's is the relationship with the u.s. remains "very strong" despite a dustup in the first phone conversation between the two leaders. bill waserview, turn asked about his current exchanges -- turnbull was asked about his current exchanges with trump. mr. turnbull: they have been constructive, frank, and forthright, and we have a very -- very deep engagement with the american administration and every administration. the australian-u.s. alliance, relationship is very deep. it is built over a century of fighting side in every major cons -- conflict. it is an economic partnership and is built on millions of people to people links and family links. do you view him as a man? mr. turnbull: he is a very big
personality and has a big job. >> in terms of the added difficulty with decision-making, this is someone who does so via social media, via twitter, there is an element of the unexpected. does that change the way you deal with the u.s.? mr. turnbull: no, we view our national interest methodically and we make our case very frankly and forthrightly when we are speaking to our american friends. as you would expect, with good friends, we are fairly circumspect about what we say in public. it is important we give very frank advice and frank exchanges with our american counterparts, but we do not lecture them through the media. it is very important to be able to talk frankly as good friends should. >> in the markets we have been trying to work out what is trump
the president versus trump the candidate? a lot of that has come to fruition in terms of pulling out of the tpp and immigration. do you think he means what he says? mr. turnbull: that is a judgment you have got to make. , people willdents always assume that president's and prime minister's mean what they say naturally. in terms of a sort of commentary on u.s. politics, i will leave that to all the collective talent at bloomberg. it is not my job to comment on u.s. political developments. >> all over we are seeing the borders of trade seemingly closed. where does that leave australia? what does free trade look like if we continue to get the populace uprisings in europe? we have got a number of european elections and if you were to be bearish, we could end up with a similar result to trump, to the brexit vote.
mr. turnbull: we have a free trade agreement with the united states, which is working very well. we have entered into new free trade agreements with china, korea, japan, and enhanced new freight -- new trade agreement with singapore. we are working on agreements with india and indonesia, and we are open for business. we are looking to see how we can continue with the intent of the ttp, even though the united states has called out of it. we are focused on opening up more markets all the time. it is easy to get pessimistic because of a few political .evelopments i think the trajectory in favor of free trade will continue, but certainly from our point of view, regardless of what happens in other places, from our point of view it is manifestly in australia's interest to have access to more markets. and of course, it benefits
australians being able to have cheaper goods that they can buy at the shop. bothnefit from free trade on the export side and the import side. , and that hasn been clear for a long time. trade means jobs. we are a much more trade dependent economy, for example, than the united states, so it is critically important for us as a big trading nation to have access to more markets. that is what we sought to do. mark: australia prime minister martin turnbull in an exclusive interview. time for the bloomberg business flash to look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. shares of intercontinental hotels rising to the highest level since 2003. they say they will pay a special dividend of $400 million. the maker of oreo cookies and
triscuits is overhauling its line of snack foods. mondelez is introducing a line without artificially gradients and gm owes the ingredients and .mo's their sales have fallen in the last four years. that is the latest in the bloomberg business/. .- business flash battle of the charts coming up, currencies face-off, active versus passive. this is bloomberg. ♪
feature on the bottom of your screen. charts where he takeit is simone foxma. >> thank you for having me. i want to show you the chart that is really central to the biggest debate in asset that internet, active management versus passive. what you will see here -- vonnie: it is ok. mark: we will get rid of that. >> so what i wanted to look at is the assets invested in equity focused visual funds, that is the yellow, versus the assets etf's, by passive passive index funds. what you can see is just 10 years ago, passive assets were just a fraction of overall assets invested in these types of funds, and now they are quickly catching up. last year, active assets were really sort of flat. i think what this demonstrates
is that investors are really asking themselves the question, should i be paying more for asset management? mark: where can you find a chart? btv -- can find that at g# vonnie: we are all going to attend that meeting. mine is a function more than a chart. i am looking at carrier returns for the first month of the year, it is interesting to see what is outperforming. markets andemerging -- we knew this -- the ruble is doing the best, returning seven and a half percent. higher interest rates in the u.s. and lower interest rates in countries like brazil are making that a very attractive trade. when i was reading the research, people were saying the u.s.
dollar, they are moving out of the u.s. dollar as a carry funding currency and moving into things like ruble and the yen. mark: you know it is tradition attendee on first botc, but i am thinking of changing the tradition. just kidding. simone, you are the winner. >> thank you so much. mark: both going to be fantastic charts. have a look at where european equities finished, the highest level since december 2016. the big three in the u.s.. the big decline are in london, hsbc driving down the ftse. ♪
from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, we are taking you from washington, d c to cincinnati and london. here are the top stories on the bloomberg from around the world. another day, another record for the u.s. major averages. the s&p 500 gaining nine out of the 10 last sessions. consumer discretionary funds are leading. better than expected earnings from walmart, and macy's. that is boosting confidence. shares of walmart on pace for the biggest gain in nine months. snap takes its roadshow to new york, raising questions about declining user engagement and ownership structure. we are halfway into the trading day this