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tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  March 24, 2017 3:30pm-5:01pm EDT

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not confident the bill will pass. house speaker paul ryan met with president trump at the white house, reportedly telling him republicans do not have the votes. a senior administration official says that although in public the president is standing by the speaker over the bill, the planning's aides are to blame him if there is an embarrassing defeat. the terroristy behind the attack in london was once investigated over concerns he was turning to extremism. he had a history of minor convictions but had never been convicted of terrorism. he was killed by a police officer. the bill for brexit will not be cheap. the european commission president says the u.k. will have to pay about $62 billion when it leaves the european union. he told the bbc there is no desire to punish the u.k. for leaving. still, he says, the eu must
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prevent other countries from following. the formal brexit process begins next week. french presidential candidate marine le pen was in moscow where she had an unprecedented meeting with vladimir putin tereus she said sanctions on russia are counterproductive. president putin says he is not trying to influence the french election. first round of voting in france is april 23. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 overalists and analysts in 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ scarlet: live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm scarlet lu. joe: and i'm joe weisenthal. we are 30 minutes from the close of trading in the u.s. the question is -- "what'd you miss?"
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i vote in george moments. house republican leaders are not confident they have enough votes to pass a health care bill -- a do or die vote in moments. will the white house be able to deliver on its policies? economics of people could be measured by a much more morbid gauge. mortality rates used as a measure of prosperity. joe: let's look at where major averages stand as we head toward the close. abigail doolittle is standing by. abigail: it's not surprising in the face of the drama in d.c. over the health care bill, if it will be passed or not, we have serious intraday volatility. we looked at the best gains for the week for the dow, s&p 500, and nasdaq earlier today, and now we are looking at declines.
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the nasdaq really helped by butngth in chip stocks, that uncertainty certainly weigh in on the minds of investors. as you and scarlet pointed out, it goes well beyond health care, but the idea that if this bill does not get past, it could put some of president trump's progrowth policies on hold. the dow is now down seven days in a row, the worst weekly performance since september 9, last year. that was the week when everybody was nervous that rates could rise very quickly. we saw a big selloff for stocks. this is the worst week since that week. on selling today, we are now at lowe's lower than on tuesday -- onare now at lows lower than tuesday. we look at some of the haven assets on the week. the s&p 500 down 1% on the week. the 10-year yield down.
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we have gold trading higher, and we also have the yen trading higher, represented in red because the dollar, of course, is declining against the yen. an off week on concern over if the health care bill will pass. in orange, we have the yen. in blue, the s&p 500. the period we're looking at is the biggest risk -- joe, i'm going to toss it back to you. joe: we have breaking news. "washington post" reporting that donald trump has said the health care bill has been pulled. we go to capitol hill for the latest. is it over for today echo what's going on? >> i'm just learning, as you are, the president apparently
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told "the washington post" there will be no vote today. this is news to everyone here. house republicans had planned on voting late this hour or in the next hour on this bill. they were widely seen to be short on the vote, but they were planning to go ahead. an official announcement has not been made, but a senior official source telling me house leaders are meeting right now, 3:35, privately to discuss the next steps. scarlet: house speaker paul ryan will be speaking on health care at 4:00 as well. this republican meeting taking place is a lead up to the house speaker addressing the issue at 4:00 p.m. we know speaker ryan went to speak to the president earlier today. do we have any sense of what was discussed at that meeting? sahil: we hear he was essentially conveying to the president where things stand on the health-care bill and the widespread expectation is that they do not have the votes. moderates are concerned the bill deep cuts ino
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subsidies. the word last night was that the freedom caucus demand it and received a provisions bill that essential benefits, and they thought that would make things worse. there are bleeding moderates on one hand, and far right conservatives on the other hand say it is too much like the informal care act. they simply do not have the votes to pass this. joe: obviously, congressional leaders in the white house wanted to get this done, out of the way. they kind of set up some artificial deadlines, however. there is no particular reason they cannot come back and take another stab at this later. some winsr trump gets under his belt, maybe related to
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taxes, putting someone on the supreme court. is there any reason to think later in the year they would have a better shot with better time and planning? sahil: the simple answer is no. if you try one major initiative at thefails, especially start of a presidency, when you are supposed to have a honeymoon period, you tend to not come back to it later. bill clinton tried to pass a health care bill early in his presidency and never came back to it. it will be difficult to imagine a situation where the dynamics republicans, when the honeymoon period is more than over, especially when they have moved on and consider they cannot get it done now. i do not mean they have to get it done today. potentially, they could keep working on this, keep trying to move votes and get it done next week or sometime this spring, but that seems unlikely, and it seems the president has made clear based on what our sources he wants to move on to
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other issues. joe: we have another headline from "the washington post" -- trump saying he does not blame paul ryan. there has been the question of who is to blame if it does not pass. is it ryancare, trumpcare? trump officially saying it is not paul ryan's fault. scarlet: interesting after we got word that the white house was ready to throw paul ryan under the bus. vote means we save trump .rom the democratic majority if the health care bill passes, obamacare is saved because it has so many issues. is he alone in thinking that? bit of anhink he is a outlier. i don't know that congressman geomet -- congressman coh
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gohmert's view is the majority. there always is blowback for doing a major change to the health care system. you can ask democrats of 2009 and 2010 that. the question of if that would outweigh the setback of failing on their single biggest promise when they have control of all levels of government -- either way, there is some pain around the corner. out i just want to point s&p 500 has just turned green. it has never been clear the extent to which markets are really concerned with the ahca. there had been selling off earlier, but now we got some official word on the vote the and pulled, it did not matter. stocks ticking up higher in the wake of that news. scarlet: it's interesting because all afternoon, stocks
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had been losing ground and accelerating some of their losses. now that these headlines have come out, the uncertainty is can and the white house move on with tax reform -- at least that's what some are thinking. when we get these headlines that the house is going to pull this health care bill, that means it is done for now. they are not going to go back to it and we can look ahead to tax reform, as the market seems to be doing? the trumpmargaret: administration saying there is going to be a vote, it's going to pass, do not need to talk about a plan b. there is only a plan a. this announcement now from president trump, apparently, is the end of the road for today. joe: who is going to take the blame for this aqua apparently donald trump says he does not blame all right and. some people are angry with the freedom caucus for failing to say yes. some people say donald trump could not get a deal together
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despite his vaunted abilities. within thend falls current republican party? who takes the hit? margaret: this is a spectacular question. earlier today, there were reports that president trump is standing by paul ryan, while his aides are saying they will blame paul ryan. either they are not going to blame speaker ryan or will do it behind the scenes while not doing it publicly or perhaps will name the -- blame the freedom caucus. -- one of the big reasons people care about this is taxes. when they get to the tax bill, will they do the same process where they sort of wait for paul ryan to craft a bill and see how it goes, or will the white house be more hands-on from the beginning?
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sahil: they are going to use the same process, the budget reconciliation process, which is the only way to avoid a wall of democratic oppression that stops them. omb director mulvaney suggested either today or yesterday that president trump was going to be more hands-on. you have seen in recent rallies he sounds very enthusiastic about tax reform in a way he has not sounded about health care reform. if he does take the lead on this, it will be a break from the way he has handed -- handled tolth care, handing it off other leaders in the house. it is a difference. we will see how that goes, but it's clear that a different approach will be needed because
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nobody is saying tax reform will be easy, and a number of house republicans have told me in the last few hours that if this does not succeed, if this fails, it will be a setback for republicans' ability to convince people they can get things done. scarlet: we are showing graphs of the markets, and you have the dow and s&p 500 paring their losses right now, making a little bit of a recovery. the u.s. dollar as well has been paring its losses. it is still down on the day in the week, but it has been giving up some of its decline is the headlines crossed that the u.s. government or the white house this legislation. back to you on capitol hill, as republicans gather to try to figure out their next steps, what is the mood of congress right now? sahil: very tense. this a lot of anxiety ahead. a republican congressman from new york told me that people are
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just storming past each other, not talking to each other. a lot are blaming the freedom caucus, driving a hard bargain or impossible bargain for speaker ryan to meet. on the other hand, speaker ryan facing problems on the moderate side, which was not problems we saw during the moderate -- during the president obama years because moderates tended to vote with the leadership. this is a high wire act that speaker ryan is going to have to engage in. it is a bit of an ominous sign. in the same way that moderates , we cantain demands expect them to have certain wishes and demands and red lines on things like infrastructure. any big thing they try to do where there are winners and losers. joe: i asked earlier about who rises and falls with the party. 2018 is a big deal. four republican congressmen,
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is it better that it did not happen or if it did? how does this shakeout electoral? margaret: i think we will see ,he debate on that shakeout now but many believe it is better that it did not happen because once you go on board with a vote, you are on board with a vote. and the weekend, we're looking for a decision on trying to press ahead for shelving the process -- or shelving the process and beginning immediately with tax reform. what is the strategy moving forward? we now have a real leadership test for paul ryan and president trump. if that now creates a new division between congress and the white house. scarlet: cameron, as you noted, as i'm sure you have been watching, stocks have been
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giving up some of their losses, almost turning positive. the s&p 500 has just turned green. the dow still negative. the u.s. dollar giving up some of its decline as well. all this week, there has been this haze over equities and risky assets because of this uncertainty over the health care bill. now that the vote has been tabled, at least for today, is it time to look ahead to tax reform? cameron: i think that is probably the case. callote was too close to basically all week. if you were making a bet on the outcome, you were essentially gambling. you might as well go to vegas because at least the drinks are free, right? i think there is a sense of relief that maybe we can put aside the noise in an environment where people do not have an edge and look ahead to something that will have more tangible economic benefits for the economy as a whole and for
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the market. more people maybe feel like they have more of an edge. joe: not only is there not a clear edge, it's not even clear if people have any real strong conviction about which we the vote goes, which way it should react for the markets. today, it looked like the vote was running into trouble, stocks pulled off. is there no real of these between any outcome here and a arket reaction? cameron: i think that is right. part of the reason is ultimately, the market will be determined by economic development, and once the economic outcome of health care -- it's hard to -- scarlett: passes when chamber of commerce? passes one chamber of commerce when there is still monumental struggle over big parts of the bill -- i personally think that the we can drop a line
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and the administration has decided to not ask questions we do not want to know the answer to, that accelerates tax reform. joe: nice chart on the screen right now, a company benefiting from medicare programs, shooting up to its highs of the day. some health care stocks actually love this. scarlet: i asked how some decide what to do and plan strategies, and one ceo said he just does not worry about it and looks ahead to things he can control. joe: let's say hypothetically health care is done for now and nothing in the future. what will be the contours of that debate? it will not be as simple as cutting taxes. different factions will have different priorities again. sahil: the big question for republicans is if they try to go
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big, bold, an ambitious and tried to do permanent tax reform that would entail being revenue .eutral if they do that, that would be very different from the other option, which is essentially to do a temporary 10-year tax cut, which happened under president bush because they did that through reconciliation. they did not have the votes to make it revenue neutral or did not really try in that case. republicans do not want to do the temporary one because businesses tend not to want to plan, as you know, for the near term or the medium-term. they like to plan the long-term. that is one big question they will have to face. another question is, as we discussed earlier, who takes the lead on this? another congressionally drafted proposal that president trump sort of tries to egg along but does not really put his fingerprints on in a significant way? speaker ryan has a tax reform plan that amounts to about $3 trillion in tax breaks.
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president trump wants to double that, and it's not clear he's on board with key components of .peaker ryan's plan there are a number of different questions and overall dynamics people the to watch for is how speaker ryan handles the conservatives in his conference and the moderates in his conference. if we see similar dynamics where both sides are making demands, it will be another tough balancing act. we have not seen them draw headlines yet. a lot of them have not gotten to engaged to the point of knowing exactly what they do and do not want, but these will be the questions moving forward to that debate. scarlet: absolutely. speaker ryan has a huge role to play. as the market looks ahead to tax reform, who are the players from the white house that we need to watch for? margaret: you will certainly be watching gary cohn, and his role is important on a number of fronts.
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his ability to reach across the caucus from conservatives to moderates and perhaps even weoss the partisan line -- may see that more in infrastructure than we did in tax reform, but either way, he is important to watch. the other is the interplay between steve bannon reince priebus. for a while, the story was about them as competing forces. as you see a weakening of speaker ryan's stock inside a trump white house, reince priebus' fortunes may be somewhat tied to that. scarlet: we want to recap the headline once again -- house republicans lacking the support and have canceled voting on the health care bill. speaker ryan will be speaking shortly, in about nine minutes' time.
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from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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: what to go into the bloomberg to look a little further into the market reaction to this news -- want to go into the bloomberg. this is a three-day chart of hospital stocks, and they have had a massive surge over the last few days. we talked about how the general market is not clear what the relationship is, but some areas are clearly very sensitive to that. hospitals like it because they like more people having insurance, fewer people coming to the hospital without insurance. this is one sector that has been extremely sensitive to this news. you see in the middle when the house vote was delayed yesterday, they shot up today.
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scarlet: investors have court a ton of money into xlv. . have it here on my bloomberg it does not indicate if people are bullish or bearish on health care as a group because, as you mentioned, there are so many asisions within health care a whole. nevertheless, people are pouring money into the sector because this is a liquid way to trade. joe: we are waiting for house speaker paul ryan to talk at 4:00. what is your next big question? margaret: the obvious next big question is -- does health care come back at all, this month, this quarter, this year? if so, how tackle the next is if they take this and apply it to the next step. -- if so, how? there is valuable information to be gleaned about how disparate the interest in the republican .aucus are
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democrats are content to sit watchf they can just republicans destroy each other. this is a failure but a failure with opportunities. it is information the administration and speaker ryan can take and learn from. joe: some headlines coming from "the new york times." obamacaremp says when explodes, democrats may be open to a deal. trump -- there have been reports that trump said if they could not get a deal, he would wait for the eventual implosion of obamacare and blame it on democrats. that does not necessarily imply any sort of a minute thing. imminent thing. that does not imply they are immediately going to take another stab at this. scarlet: are we expected to hear from president trump anytime this afternoon?
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shannon: if you are bob costa from "the washington post" maybe. a group of reporters is standing outside press secretary sean spicer's office right now, try to get any sort of statement or confirmation. apparently, the president has made these statements, but as far as official word from the white house, we have not gotten anything yet. scarlet: it's interesting that the president is willing to talk to the media after this whole thing has been tabled. joe: interesting choice of media, too. -- the crooked media or whatever it is called. some interesting choices. from a market perspective, it's like we keep waiting for the thing that will rouse the market out of its slumber and boost volatility. could we just go on like this for a while? cameron: yeah. there is certainly precedent for
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extended periods of low volatility. volatility tends to cluster. if you have low volatility today and yesterday in the day before, statistically, you will have low volatility tomorrow. when that dam eventually does break, you will have high volatility that will cluster. there are so many micro issues in terms of the steepness of the curve and the amount of models and play -- models at play people who sell s&p options every week. there's a whole lot of gamma, using an option term, surrounding the market and a lot why.cro reasons scarlet: it seems like a theme around investors looking to europe and emerging markets, because things are a little bit
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less fully valued overseas then in the united states, while we wait for everything to get sorted out at home. cameron: if you look at the p/d multiple, thee s&p is almost six higher than .he emerging market index if you go back this decade, the range is about two to 6.5 or seven. on a relative aces, the s&p looks a lot more richly valued than it has in a wild. joe: we had these headlines from "the new york times" about trump saying maybe we can do something about health care after obamacare implodes. is it imploded? shannon: the trump administration is doing everything it can to try to make it implode. shortening the period where , reducing then up
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money for marketing to help so if people to sign up, you are an insurer, i do not you for following out of this market, because the administration is doing everything it can to pull back as much of the law as it can. the actions, they will be able to do a good job to make it difficult. the medicaid expansion, which was a large portion of this, still goes on, it is unclear whether hhs has the power to get rid of mandates like central health benefits. welcome to everyone tuning in live on twitter. we are at the closing bell, and we want to bring you up-to-date as a the s&p and nasdaq have been gyrating, but they pretty much closed unchanged on the day. joe: completely unchanged, s&p down not even 0.1%. they had been down lower on the
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first sign that the vote would not be voted on, but on the official news, they bounced back up. they bounced back up to flash, and the bloomberg dollar index has paired some of its losses as well. we are here with cameron price, the senior white house correspondent margaret, and shannon petty. "what'd you miss?"? lots. we will bring you up to speed on the gop health bill vote. the house has pulled the ville -- the bill, and we are waiting on speaker ryan to approach the lectern to explain what the next step is. let's start with you, margaret. as you listen to the development and watched and monitored everything, how different is this than the usual sausage making in washington? is this more volatile? margaret: this is really the first test of president trump's turn hiso manifestly
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campaign promises into a policy beyond executive orders. this is a virtual test of republican control. you have republicans in control of the house and senate, eight and this ismas is, the stumble out of the gate. it is unusual. the other thing is the sort of roller coaster of details, will there be a vote, will there not the about -- a vote? the one thing on the politics side now is how president trump talks to his voters, many of his voters in the key states in the midwest who rely either on the medicaid portion of this or who supported his promises to improve the system, they thought that would mean more coverage, cheaper cost. but is not what any of this is about. we will see how that goes on. joe: shannon, we talked about how maybe we will go on to taxes, but on the white house perspective, is it meaningful politically? shannon: i think it is.
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i think what it says more is the president cannot get congress to come together. this is not the only or most divisive issue this white house will have to deal with. tax reform will be also very divisive, the freedom caucus obviously very far from moderates on very many tax issues. infrastructure faces its own obstacles are not even things like immigration down the road, but you cannot get everyone to come in on health care, and health care is complicated, the president said, but repealing and replacing was one of the things of the things the party was most united on. the most troubling thing is, where does the party stand as a unit, and can they do anything? scarlet: we have heard all along the margaret -- the market was looking ahead to fiscal stimulus that republicans will bring. we knew health care would not get very far after it passed of the house if it did that. have priced markets
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in two much likelihood that tax reform will get done without thinking that there are quite a number of divisions in the party? cameron: there's quite a lot of issues, will he get done, and if so, when? i don't think there is any expectation it would be this year. is in the consensus. i would say there is a general belief it will get done, but so far in advance, you are so far away that the factor of the current price of stocks is relatively low in the sense there is not much in it. joe: we talked about after the election, the huge surge, stocks surging because of tax cuts and infrastructure stimulus antiregulation. can we look at the overall market or certain components and say, here is what they are pricing in, not, or is it all continuous? modeln: you can build a
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that does that, but you find it will not get the same output consistently, because drivers change. i think this rally started in november as a trump inflation rally, then people started to notice the rest of the world is doing pretty well, and it morphed into a more global growth recovery story. torlet: shannon, i want bring you back into the conversation, because we were talking about how the president has been remaking remarks -- been making remarks to the washington post and the new york times. it is interesting because he has talked down the mainstream media's influence. what does it signify the president is choosing to go first to the washington post and new york times after the health care bill has been put to rest for the time being? shannon: i really have no idea at this point. throughout the day, we will get more insight on this. trump woulddent
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want to pick up the phone and call someone if he did not like their story. he would call them up, not afraid to talk directly with reporters. he will often answer our .uestions we shout at him there are some reporters that covered him for a long time and have his personal cell phone onber, so despite the war media, there is a very open relationship between the president and the media to a certain extent. knowon as i get back in, i that is what the reporters will be trying to -- as soon as i get back in, that is what the reporters will be trying to do. joe: it is interesting seeing to the rising stars in the conservative media have been blaming, looking at breitbart, calling this ryancare, that is all on him. how will they conditioned this and what kind of influence do they have? this is who you see that trump is reaching out to.
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not just a wide cross-section of americans but the kind of ,stablishment republicans block not just voters but business, political interests. he is trying to signal that he -- not inrol of this control of the vote but of himself and strategy and situation, that he will talk directly to people, be upfront and say, it did not work out, try to walk away. well,, tryr him say, to put the blame on other people and say it was not really his failure? he is fed up by the white house's own accounts, reaching out to one out of four members of congress, personally lobbying them in person by telephone here he was very much hands-on in the effort. we got word onn, when the president will be speaking. shannon: he was scheduled to have a 4:00 pool spray, we which is what they call a gathering for republican -- reporters, but
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they were told to stay around after remarks of for the medal of honor recipient or the president will take questions on health care from the oval office. there will be cameras, and the bloomberg reporter jennifer johnson will be there as well. stay tuned. joe, he has said he does not blame paul ryan, even as reporting as indicated administration officials are blaming paul ryan. you mentioned the immediate aftermath of the election where everyone was calling trumpflation or reflation. now it is looking pretty good. back to the inflation component, the trade that is sensitive to the idea of a reflationary environment, or getting a different picture? cameron: we are kind of in a cause mode, fixed income -- pause mode, fixed income. you have the fed announcement, we are back in the old range.
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maybe that is a tactical issue of people who are underweight or short, taking some profit, but if you look at the oil story is another one, it has been a supply factor that has brought the oil price down, but oil going sideways to lower is not consistent with the reflation story, with copper and iron ore. it is a broad pause, but you often see that in march, trending the first couple months of the year often give something back in march before reasserting themselves in the spring. scarlet: a quick note to that we are awaiting speaker ryan to address the public. he was scheduled to begin at 4:00 p.m. after the house pulled a health care bill. when he speaks, we will take you there. joe: margaret, do you think speaker ryan is in jeopardy? speaker ryan watched john boehner go through this. he has an interesting potential insurance policy. it is too soon to talk about
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this, but something to keep in mind. you have the risk of what every modern public in house speaker faces these days, divisions in the caucus, freedom, tea party, lawmakers versus moderates. but remember paul ryan has long eyed as a-- long been potential presidential candidate . to the extent that president trump were able to throw him under the bus, that is the glass scenario. joe: i want to ask this question. health care political reform has caused problems for almost every administration that has tried to do it. obama did it but never -- lost his democratic majority and never got it back the entire time. what is it that seems to end in situations like this? margaret: because good health care is expensive but nobody
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wants to pay for it. you can be opposed to throwing it all of the benefits, you can be fiscally opposed, but as a person, if you are sick, someone in your family has a history of whatever, this is the sort of thing people want. so it is absolutely divisive, even within parties, the republican party, the question of, if you cannot pay for it, can you have it? scarlet: i love how you distill it to the bare essence. cameron, has wall street looked at it in a similar simplistic way? something everyone wants but we don't know how to pay for it. cameron: you have got different people being paid and every level. you have hospitals, insurers, device makers, you have got all these strata of the u.s. health care system where it is a for-profit enterprise. nationalized-payer
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systems that you have another other parts of the world, you do succession to get paid. that is one reason why the american percentage is so expensive. while we are spending, other people are reaping the profit. wall street is very invested because all these companies are making money off of health care. scarlet: when wall street is still invested, it is a preference to have the status quo rather than shake things up. cameron: it depends on your position. if you are along with hospitals, absolutely. your preference is the status quo. time,ong periods of gridlock has been associated with good market performance. you could probably argue that the devil you know is probably better than the one you don't. joe: every time there is a big thing out of washington, it is like a big learning experience -- scarlet: we saw paul ryan
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getting ready to speak. paul ryan: moving from an opposition party to a governing party comes with growing pains, and we are feeling those growing pains today. we came really close today, but we came up short. i spoke to the president just a little while ago, told him the best thing i think to do is to pull this bill, and he agreed with that decision. this is a disappointing day for this. doing big things is hard. all of us, myself included, we will need time to reflect on how we got to this moment, what we could have done to do it better, but ultimately it comes down to a choice. are all of us willing to give a little to get something done? are we willing to say yes to the good? [please stand by]
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we can do to help improve people's lives, and we will, because that is why i am here. i know it is why every number of this conference is here, to make this a better country. we want american families to feel more confident in life. we want the next generation to know the best days of the country are still ahead of us. i am proud of the bill we produced. it would make a dramatic improvement in the health care system and provide relief by people hurting under obamacare. what is most troubling is the worst is yet to come with obamacare. i am proud of the long, inclusive member driven process we had. any member who wanted to engage constructively, to offer ideas, good. i want to thank so many members who helped us make this bill better, a lot of members put work into this. i also want to thank the president, and the vice president, and tom price, mick mulvaney, and the entire white house team.
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in hissident gave all effort. he did everything he could to help people see the opportunity we have with the bill. he has been fantastic. we have got to do better, and we will. i believe that. this is a setback, no two ways about it, but it is not the end of the story. i know every man and woman in motivatedrence is now more than ever to step up our game, deliver on our promises. everyone is committed to seizing the opportunity we have, and i sure am. >> talk about real people, now you have a long vote [indiscernible] that you guys don't like it the white house doesn't like. will you try to help it along or prop it up? paul ryan: the question is, do we prop it along and try a prop it up, it is so fundamentally flawed, i don't know that is possible. what we are worried about, and you have heard me say this, is
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the coming premium increases healthwith the spiraling care system. that is my concern. we did not get consensus today. what we have is a member driven process trying to get consensus. we came close but did not get it. i thought the wise thing to do was not proceed with a vote, but to pull the bill. i don't think the law or anything close to it will be able to survive. >> will you work the inflation out? paul ryan: we will see what the next steps are. >> [indiscernible] responsible for the [indiscernible] today? paul ryan: there is a block of no votes that is why this did not pass. there were a subsistent -- sufficient number of votes that did not change. we were close. some of the members of that caucus were voting with us, but not enough.
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we met with the chairman earlier today, he made it clear the votes would not be there from their team, and that was sufficient to provide the balance to not have this bill passed. house,all slept in the with the promise to repeal obamacare, majority in the senate with the promise to repeal obamacare, the white house with the promise to mobile obamacare -- repeal obamacare. how do you go home with constituents saying, it is not even able in this administration we can't -- paul ryan: i wish i had a better answer. i believe obamacare is hurting families, not working, designed in a fundamentally flawed way. we believe this is the best way to go, but we do not get this consensus to get there. >> the bottom line is obamacare remains the law of the land. will that change in 2017? paul ryan: yeah, i don't know
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what else to say. it will remain the law until it is replaced. we did not have quite the votes to replace this law, so we will be living with obamacare for the first civil future. -- for seeable future. beworry is obamacare will getting even worse. we were doing the democrats a favor. we were doing architects of obama a favor by passing this before it gets lost. it will get worse, and i don't think the architects, i don't think they will be pleased, but when they see how bad it gets the based on the project and we are being told by the plans participating in obamacare, they will not like that either. .ive states, one choice over a third of the counties in america, one plan a and the projections we are being told from the people providing health insurance to these people is going to get even worse. i do not think the architects
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envisioned this future. it is not one we want for the american people. i wish we had the consensus needed to bring a bill to the floor to pass, but we don't. [indiscernible] do you have to keep the government open for five weeks to pass tax reform? how much capital [indiscernible] how does that injure those other bills? paul ryan: our members did everything they could to get consensus read this is how governing works when you are in the majority. we need to get 216 people to agree with each other to write legislation, not 210, 215 yard we need to hundred 16 people in -- 215, weo agree need to hundred 16 people in the house to agree. now we will move on, because we
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have big, ambitious plans to improve people's lives. we want to secure the border, rebuild military, get the deficit under control, we want infrastructure and tax reform. the last question about tax reform, guess, it does make a more difficult, but it does not make it impossible. we will proceed with tax reform, continue with tax reform. the president about tax reform, so we will perceive tax reform. this makes it more comfortable but obamacare taxes stay with obamacare. we will fix the rest of the text -- tax code. >> [indiscernible] paul ryan: members realize there are other parts because people have more agreement on what to achieve. we have more agreement on the
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need and nature of tax reform on funding the government, rebuilding the military, securing the border. this issue had a big difference of opinion, not whether we should repeal and replace but just how we should replace it. that is the growing pains of governing. we were a 10 year opposition party where being against things with easy to do. you just had to be against it. now in three months' time, we try to go to a governing party where we have to get 216 people to agree with each other there a we were not quite there today. we will get there, but -- [please stand by] the conference, we were on the promise wefilling a made, achieving an addition we
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all had for seven years, and we came a little short. " not quite there. on other issues, this bill would have made what we call phase two much, much better. thee are some things secretary of hhs can do to stabilize things, but we needed this to make it better. risk pools. -- smartera start way to get people affordable coverage while bringing down the health care costs for everybody else is to read -- put in the health risk pools. that will not happen now, and he will not be able to deploy that policy tool we think is better than obamacare. the -- we doof lose a lot of what we wanted. that was speaker ryan addressing the press, the public, saying i will not sugarcoat this, this is a disappointing day. the party is feeling growing
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froms -- pains, going minority to majority in the house and senate. i want to welcome back our guests margaret talev and shannon pettypiece. when you listen to speaker ryan address the press and talk about how their part -- there are members who could not vote, who'd you think he was addressing in saying that we are tempted to compromise, but we could not do it, sometimes you have to say yes to things you don't agree with? >> the attacking about the divide between the house freedom caucus on the far right leaning side of the house who wanted a full repeal, no mandates, no subsidies, complete repeal, and the more moderate who were concerned about people losing their hair -- health insurance, concerned about there not being a safety net for low income people. these two different sides and
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philosophies are fighting each other in the republican party, the side that health care is not a right, it is a privilege, who are against entitlements, and the side that feels like they need to take more responsibility for millions of people left without health insurance if this law was fully revealed. joe: margaret, what was your most interesting thing? margaret: i will give you two things. underscoring the president trump had all in -- sounds like he is praising himself and trump. we are going down together. ryan'stwo, paul statement that in the minority party, it is easy to just say no to everything. when you are in charge, you have to say yes. he is turning on his own caucus now. joe: they passed obamacare revealed like 20 times. there were no consequences or chances those the get signed
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into law, they had no problem passing. shannon: it was like a stunning news conference. you can pull out a billion newsbytes, maybe that obamacare is that law of the land. scarlet: shannon, you were covering law and retail for us. the republicans for all those years when they replaced -- opposed obamacare, did they not sit down and decided what each side wanted in a new health care bill? shannon: they did, and the leadership was very aware, the feelings in the far conservative tea party freedom caucus movement of this party, they miscalculated how tightly that group was going to lock behind this. there was the assumption by the president, gop leadership, the administration that they were in power, they could steamroll people into following them. i think they underestimated the grassroots, though, the
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antiestablishment activism that propelled president trump to power, the antiestablishment activism triggered from this houserging on these freedom caucus t party leaning members to oppose this bill, partye they -- tea leaning members to oppose this bill. there was a very quick grassroots movement that i believe they underestimated because they felt, we are in power, let's get our bill through, everyone will fall in line. joe: i want to bring in the former chief of staff of senator of the architects of obamacare. we just heard paul ryan saying obamacare is still the law of the land, but it is imploding, we will see skyrocketing premiums in all these places where there is only one provider. how would you, what would you think about the current state of
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the market? >> it is nonsense. more than 12 million people join the exchanges last year. millions and millions of americans are getting health insurance that did not have it before. while there are some markets that are less stable than others , you know, this is not a program that is in any way imploding. i think it will be critical for the administration to do what they have been sent to washington to do, which is the government and responsible stewards of what is the law of the land, that means continuing with outreach to make sure that people continue to sign up for obamacare and also ensuring that the insurance markets stays stable, that is the responsibility as the stewards of our government. president trump speaking now saying we were very, very close, the tight margin. we note he is speaking in the roosevelt room, making comments following the crime it --
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speaker ryan as well. give us more from the president. he did speak is today after his meeting with the truckers and ceos, so is this a extension of his triumphant remarks, or how is he characterizing the failure to move the bill into the voting stage? saying: he seems to be what he has been saying for a while, let obamacare implode, the democrats will own it. it will be their fault, but it might not have to implode, there are actions they could take to help stabilize this bill. and like it or not, november 9, the republicans own health care. they can blame democrats to were four years from now, but they are in control now, this is their party, they are in the white house. they own health care. this initial spin is it will implode, we will try and blame democrats -- i don't know if that will be the right political cockiness in 2018 or over the next year when people start
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demanding action from the republican party. scarlet: let's listen in to house minority leader nancy pelosi speaking to write as well. -- speaking right now as well. nancy pelosi: i am happy to be here. the unity was very important message to the country that we are very proud of the affordable care act. yesterday was a seven-year anniversary of the president , and thehe bill american people expressed their support for it. that message became very clear to our colleagues on the republican side of the aisle. today is a great day for our country, a victory, a victory for the american people. for our seniors, people with disabilities, children, veterans . also it is not just about the 24 million people who now won't have to be off of health
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insurance, it is about the hundred 55 million that receive benefits in the workplace that will not be assaulted by some of the provisions the republicans put in the bill, especially last night when they moved the essential benefits package. exciting forpretty us. yesterday, our anniversary. today, a victory for the affordable care act and the american people. tomorrow is the 51st anniversary of reverend martin luther king that mr.g in a speech clyburn look -- quotes often to us. of all the forms of inequality, inequality in health care is probably the most inhumane and can sometimes lead to death. that was the spirit in which we came into this debate, honoring the vows of our founders of life, liberty and the pursuit of
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happiness, the healthy right to liberty to pursue happiness, so it is about our country and the vision of our founders. it is about faith, and is about the unity of the democrats when i did -- united by our values. i am pleased to yield. sorry, the democratic whip. this is a good day for the american people. years to assure that the american public would have access to affordable, quality health care. we went a long way towards that effort in 2010 when we adopted the affordable care act. much of the credit for passing then speakers to pelosi, now leader pelosi, who
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was indefatigable in her advocacy for assuring that every american would have the security of having the availability of health insurance. this bill went down today. it went down because the majority of the representatives of the american people in the house of representatives thought this was a bad bill, went in the wrong direction, left 24 million people kind, and raised cost for seniors between 50 and 64 very substantially. and everybody else would have paid more and got less insurance. and in fact, it was made worse last night. where the requirements for covering essential services was essentially gutted. but the american people are still going to rely on us to have that security, and i hope
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that we can work with the administration and with the other side and not just abandon this effort and not make efforts to destroy indirectly what we .id not destroy directly today that is ours once realogy as republicans, democrats, sent here by our people to make their lives that are, make sure they have jobs, make sure they have health care, make sure they have lived in a safe country. we will not abandon that responsibility, and we trust that republican colleagues will not either. i am pleased now to yield to my dear friend, the assistant leader of the democratic minority, jim clyburn of south carolina. >> thank you very much, mr. whip. scarlet: nancy pelosi saying this is a wonderful day for americans because obamacare
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remains the law of the land. i want to bring in our analysts on capitol hill. joining us by phone is the former chief of staff to senator baucus and one of the architects of obamacare. joe: shannon, i want to go to you first. trump said they were eager to work with democrats on the bill. is that remotely plausible? could be taken seriously as a future you could envision in which democrats and the white house worked together on the future of health care? source notlking to a long ago who said shortly after ,he election, president trump then president-elect trump seemed very open to working with democrats including chuck , and that trump is not an ideological guy, conservative republican. there are areas they can work together. this presidency could have gotten off on aim more tone of the issuesyou know,
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that hit off the bat, everyone could come together. i do think there is a possibility they could do that. i don't know if everyone else will go along with that, but as far as the president is concerned, he could. trump is alsodent speaking to reporters. he said with no democratic support we could not get there. it was a close vote. he said he would be totally open to democratic help on a new health care bill. he is now going for tax reform, which i have always liked. he said it has been an interesting experience. john, want to bring in the former chief of staff to senator baucus and one of the architects of obamacare which continues to stand. in the meantime, are you concerned while we wait for the future of health care legislation if there is any? are you concerned that they could accelerate the stresses on obamacare? john: yeah, of course.
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i think everybody who cares about the law and the patients that it serves are concerned about the white house with regard to have a plan to implement the law as it stands. youthe fact that they, know, they basically made the threats that they are going to difficult as possible for the law to operate. clearly that is something that i worry about. it is something people should reasonably worry about. it is not what people send folks to washington to do. they sent them there to fix problems, not exacerbate them. i think the white house would pay it serious political price if they did that, but it is something to worry about. scarlet: you heard speaker ryan's comments earlier where he addressed members of the freedom caucus saying that moving from a minority party to majority party yes. getting to what kind of relationship does
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he have with the freedom caucus? >> it is a strange relationship. they communicate and respect each other. it is not as bad as they would have been with speaker boehner, but stepping back from that for a moment, speaker ryan said something very remarkable just a few moments ago to reporters. he said obamacare is now the law of the land, you will have to live with it for the for seattle future. let's appreciate how extraordinary this is. the party that has campaigned on repeal and replace of this law the last seven years, won the house, one the senate campaigning on that, choked on their first big moment to get this done. republicans are disappointed, some of them don't know what the next steps are. i spoke to numerous republicans coming out of the meeting, nowker ryan downstairs, there is no plan. the president wants to move on to other things, seemingly tax reform. one republican congressman named steve womack said simply,
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republicans need to learn how to govern. that sort of says it all, the problems now that they have power. i want to go back to the market reaction to all of this. let's bring in the bloomberg stock reporter and the managing banktor from cindy private . i want to start with david on this. it is hard to discern the obvious market reaction to any of this. stocks went up and down, but not much. what do markets actually care about at this point? >> they care about the outcome of the legislation, because it will be an indicator have how tax legislation and reforms. it is a difficult subject because of complexity, and they know that, and they will have to think about tax reform and infrastructure and military spending and bits and pieces rather than the comprehensive
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piece of legislation. that will probably be a given take away. the market reaction was very much muted and very much expecting the republicans will be able to pass the competence ,f type of tax reform infrastructure spending, tax repatriation. they are expecting all of those things to take place. it was a call reaction. -- calm reaction. the bottom line is more reactive, and this will take a longer time than everyone thinks. scarlet: you wrote a story on this today, very tightly in that you pointed out investors have shifted their focus to tax reform. forget the health care bill. they are looking to the tax reform that has been promised by the white house. people, aretalk to they discourage about how the health care bill could go down in flames? >> almost the opposite. a lot of people almost did not care. they just want it out of the way. even though we will not get a guess or no vote, it seems to be
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out of the way. trump and ryan are saying what investors want to hear, shifting the thing to taxes. both are saying. even though the scenario that people were laying out, yes, if it is yes, we will move on, but now we say -- scarlet: president trump is speaking. let's listen in. president trump: thank you very much. we were very close, very tight margin. we have no democrat support, no votes from the democrats. they were not going to give us a single vote, so it is a difficult thing to do. i have been saying for the last year and a half that the best thing we can do politically speaking is let obamacare implode. it is exploding right now. many states have big problems,
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almost all states have big problems. i was in tennessee, they have lost half of their state in terms of an insurer. they have no insurer. that is happening to many other places. i was in kentucky the other day, similar things are happening. with noe is exploding democrat support. not quitete -- could get there, just a few votes short in terms of getting our bill passed. other people do not realize how are good our bill was because we were in phase one, but at phase two, which was mostly deciding secretary price, who is behind me, and phase three, which i think we would have gotten, it became a great bill. amy adams would have gone down, it would have been stable and strong. that is ok. we are very very close, and again, what will happen is obamacare unfortunately will explode.
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it will have a very bad year. last year you had over 100% places,s in various arizona i understand, it is going up very rapidly again like last year. it was 116%. many places 50%, 60%, 70%, i guess it averaged whatever it was, very high. this year should be worst. withwould be really good no democrat support is if the democrats let it explode, which it will soon, if they got together with us and got a real health care bill, i would be open to it. that will happen. i think the losers are nancy pelosi and chuck schumer because now they own obamacare. they 100% own it. this is not a republican health care. this is not anything but a , and theyealth care have obamacare for a little while longer until it ceases to
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exist, which it will at some point in the near future. remember, this is not our bill, this is their bill. when they all become civilized and get together and try and work out a great health care bill for the people of this country, we are open to it. where totally open to it. i want to thank the republican party. . want to thank paul he worked very hard. tom price, mike pence, who is right here, our vice president, great vice president, everybody worked hard. i worked as a team player, would love to have seen it passed, but i was very clear that it was not a speech made, there were not many that i mentioned that perhaps the best thing that could have happened was what happened today, because we will end up with a truly great health care bill in the future after this mess known as obamacare explodes.
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i want to thank everybody for being here. it will go very smoothly. i believe this is something -- it was an interesting time. we all learned a lot, learned a lot about royalty, the vote getting processed. we learned a lot about very arcane rules in both the senate and the house. for me, it has been an interesting experience. it will be leading us to a better health care plan. have a good afternoon. >> what is next on your priority? president trump: i will be going right for tax reform, which we could have done earlier, but worked out better if we had had some democrat support we had no support, so now we will go for tax reform which i have always liked. >> you talked about the speaker ryan. liked speakeri
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ryan. he has a lot of factions. it has been a long history of liking and disliking, even with the republican party, long before i got here. have had a great relationship. seems both sides like trump, and that is good. you see that more clearly than anybody. i will not speak badly about anybody within the party, but certainly there is a big history. , think paul really worked hard and i would say we were probably start going very sad -- strong on tax reform. >> [indiscernible] donald trump: there is not much you can do about it. bad things will happen to obamacare, not what you can do to help it. eventually, it is not sustainable. who theyance hombres,
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are leaving one by one as quick as you can leave, and you have states in some cases soon will not be covered. there is no way out of that. the one thing that was happening as we got closer and closer, everyone was talking about how wonderful it was. now we go back to real life, people see how bad it is. it is getting much worse. you saw when president obama 17 -- he knew he would not be here -- 2017 will be a very bad year for obamacare. you will have explosive premium increases, and the deductibles are so high, people cannot use it. it will go with that for a while, and i believe -- i know some of the democrats, and they are good people. i know they will come to us and say, let's get together and did a great health care bill or plan that is really great for the
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people of our country. that will happen. you talked about the house without any to him credit support. -- any democratic support. [indiscernible] donald trump: we were close, could have been closer than five or 10. in the end, we would have been 10 votes or maybe closer. it is hard to get almost 100%. you are talking about a very, very large number of votes among any group. we were close to doing it, but when you get no votes from the other side, meaning the democrats, it is a difficult situation. >> will you talk to the democrats now? donald trump: we have to let obamacare go its way. i would love to see you do well, but it can't. it is not a question of, i hope it does well. i would love it to do well. i want great health care for the people of this nation, but it
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cannot do well. it is imploding and soon will explode, and it will not be pretty. so the democrats do not want to see that, so they will reach out when they are ready, and when they are ready, we are ready. >> what about the house freedom caucus? donald trump: i am disappointed because we could have had it, so i am disappointed. i have surprised honestly. they really had it. it was pretty much there within grasp, but what will come out of it is a better bill. there were things in this bill i did not particularly like, and i think it is a better bill. both parties can get together and do real health care. that is the best thing. obamacare was rammed down everyone's throat 100% democrat. i think having bipartisan would be a big, big improvement. i think this is a good
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thing. i'm disappointed with my friends, but it is a hard time for them. they are very hard vote, but they are good people. >> [indiscernible] what specifically are those? donald trump: we could have had things i liked more, and if it was bipartisan, it would be the ultimate. and the democrats know that also, and someday in the not-too-distant future, it will happen. days? said -- 64 i never said repeal and replace obamacare? i said repeal and replace within 64 days -- it is a long time. but i want to have a great health care bill and plan, and we will. it will be in the distant future. there will be some democrat support that will happen, and it will be an even better bill. this is good, and it will be better the next time around.
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i don't think it will be too long. >> anything you want to change? donald trump: i don't want to speak about specifics, but there are things are good have liked even more. this was a very very good bill, and tom price, dr. tom price, who really is amazing on health care in his knowledge, i thought he did a and testing job, same with mike pence. they did -- he did a fantastic job, same with mike pence. thank you very much. joe: and i want to bring back everyone who is joining us to talk about the extraordinary developments. we have shannon pettypiece, dani burger, and from sydney private bank, david.
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i want to go to the white house perspective, what, to you, was a key thing from donald trump? shannon: i am quite interested in the president's relationship with speaker ryan. obviously he was very complementry, said paul worked very hard, did not throw him under the bus, but there is a lot of people inside this white house and among trump's close advisers who have never liked paul ryan. to try this as a moment and push paul ryan out of the sphere of influence as well as president trump's chief of staff, reince priebus. an interesting dynamic, because that will determine how well he can get the rest of his legislative agenda through congress. does he have a house because we can come together and work with him, or will there be an increasingly tense relationship between some of the trump white
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house and the president and speaker? scarlet: of course, speaker ryan mentioned we will move on with the rest of the agenda. we will secure the border, improve the military, close the deficit. he wasted three things -- listed three things before tax reform. the president said he would go for tax reform first. is there a disconnect? >> i am not sure various spirit we know tax reform is close to speaker ryan's heart. he talks about it all the time. if the president said this is what they will do next, i don't think that will be protest. it is true that they have other agenda items in the way, they have to raise the debt limit, fund the military, pass a budget through congress which will be tougher than passing the health they can'tecause bypass the 60 vote threshold, so they need democratic help to do it. one thing i saw was remarkable, president trump wants to work
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with democrats to fix the system. the only thing that will happen from the moment we are reporting on this topic is if they drop the repeal promise. if president trump decides he will not undo the law, that he will fix hearts of the market that do not work, and there are dozens that do not have insurers, people fleeing the market, prices going up in rural areas, democrats want to fix these, but not if it means undoing the benefits in the law. if that is in the accord that he takes, we will see a level of bipartisanship on health care we have not seen in a long time, but it remains to be seen if they can get their. the problem, they have spent seven years making this idea, backing off, moving to something else will not be easy to do. joe: let's bring it back to the markets. you heard trump talk about, we will move on to tax codes now.
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will that be easy? taxcuts sounds good, but reform, you have part of the republican party that wanted to be revenue neutral. will it be smooth sailing? david: not at all, and the freedom caucus -- what is interesting about what he said actually was the degree they were able to come to terms. 10 or 15 is the number they used, implying the freedom caucus was quite together. they will want deficit neutral .r deficit reducing tax reform it was not part of the concept of tax reform they did or they were considering. they will bring on be back, tax repatriation, and spend it. they would look at certain areas like corporate reform. this is an indication that the struggle will be sourced significantly different. scarlet: looking ahead, how does this change what you do in your day job, when you are managing money and looking how to
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allocate your investments? inid: it actually changes it significant ways, makes me look at a variety of things that are subtle but important. we would expect this to take a longer time, which would mean market volatility remote -- may return, hitting different entry points. it will change in the mix in terms of what we are looking to. we will see more investment in emerging markets and european markets, and the dollar will do less as well. we saw the beginning of that in the last couple of weeks. it changes the asset allocation, but it does not change the fundamental view that having equity exposure and the portfolio will work over the next 18 to 24 months. we have not lost our central enthusiasm. this is a moment to consider how to build the right portfolio. the ideatipulate markets are focused on tax reform and really want it. is there a timeline by which people would start to get disappointed, like late into
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2017, presenting real progress on the bill? what is the next key thing to watch? shannon: i think the consensus is late next year, early -- this year, early next year. we had people saying they are looking at the end of this year, around august 2017, to get that passed. but we had someone say that even though tax reform is one of the focus is, it makes tax reform or difficult but not impossible. -- more difficult but not impossible. banking stocks for example, one group that would reform,a lot that tax they wrapped up their last worst week in january, so there are seeds of doubt be implanted into the market. scarlet: david, give us your final thoughts as you look ahead. you look at markets -- emerging markets and europe.
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are we talking about the financial sectors once again because of yield curves steepening overseas as opposed to hear? david: the motivation is different. it is a relative value basis. we are seeing a 45% discount to the relative value of the u.s. , and if you saw the dollar go down, that would make them fall more -- far more attractive than they are. it is really all about when to invest and what. there is an opportunity to move -- move out of the money out of emerging markets into europe, and that would require dollar stability. we see that on the horizon. thisritical thing is when will all happen. markets are anticipating this will occur in the third quarter. if it does not, if something does not come together, we could see a far different outlook in 2018. scarlet: thank you to all of our
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guests who have joined us today. we also have shannon pettypiece at the white house, people on capitol hill, and dani burger on set. a lot of headlines to digest. joe: i don't think we took a break, an amazing 90 minutes. scarlet: and a lasting comments from speaker ryan is that they are movie -- moving on. they are moving on to the military and tax reform. they will not stop and bemoan what happened today. we will be back with more bloomberg markets and the latest out of washington. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ mark: welcome to "bloomberg
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markets." we are covering breaking news out of washington where the g.o.p. has pulled unexpected vote on the embattled health care bill. a few hours ago president trump commented on the developments moments ago. obamacare, wep: could not quite get there. we are a small number of votes short. in terms of getting our bill passed. a lot of people don't realize how good our bill was. mark: we are joined by democratic congressman. john norman of kentucky he is a ranking member of the house budget committee enjoins us from capitol hill. thank you for your time. we appreciate it. reaction, or is this expected as the process started to unfold? >> i think over the last few days, it became pretty clear republicans did not have e


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