tv Bloomberg Markets Middle East Bloomberg April 19, 2017 12:00am-1:01am EDT
>> sterling hold its highest further the year as theresa may gambles on a snap election. the prime minister once a strong mandate pre-brexit. forecastf lowers its for gulf oil producers. measures will hurt saudi arabia. city joins goldman in backing raw materials. it says crude may rally to $60 by the end of the year. is live at the
show. >> it is 8:00 across the emirates. this is "bloomberg markets: middle east." in hong kong. we have breaking news out of malaysia. is growing by 5.1%. it is a slight miss him estimates. it is surging the most in more than eight years. one ofse this is just the things in play right now across asia markets. inflation expectations been felled across training. let's take a look at the function right now. when you talk about reflation trade, although we are seeing gains across markets in asia, the reflation trade does seem to be faltering. that is being felt across markets. you're seeing the #index -- the
hang seng index slumping for the most in months. downs seeing the asx 200 .7%. the japanese markets have been undecided. began is weakening .2%. one important thing right now that we got from the japanese markets was that japan's 10 year yields touching zero. this is the first time since november. that works into bank of japan's plan to keep a 10 year yield at zero. of course that is coming on the back of rising or falling global yields. tracy. tracy: yes, i'm glad you brought up japanese government bonds and the reflation trade. you're seeing a similar dynamic happening in the u.s. let's start with u.s. treasuries. tenure yields. reached 2.16% yesterday. we saw the dollar weakening yesterday.
it regained some of his losses today. that comes around goldman sachs calling time citing a slowdown of the inflationary momentum in the u.s. economy. you can see them reflected in the u.s. equity markets. the s&p 500 is down almost .3%. the dow jones down almost .5%. dragged down by energy producers and banks. speaking of banks, we did have first-quarter results from bank of america and goldman sachs. goldman sachs disappointing analysts, particularly in his income trading unit. better onerica did things, but even its shares were down .44% yesterday. still better than the bank index. finally in the middle east we are just under two hours away from the opening of the emirates markets in dubai and out without me. you see what happened yesterday, dubai was up half a percent. but i'm david was down .5%.
almost abia was down percent, close to its lows for the month and track down by al rajhi bank. let's get a check of the first word headlines. sophie kamaruddin the imf has raised its global load forecasts while warning that protectionism could undermine. 3.4% in them january outlook. that is by boys financial markets. growth does remain subdued and the risk of trade warfare is hot. secretary of state rex tillerson says iran is complying with its commitments under the nuclear deal. washington will evaluate about listing more sanctions. , tillerson said an interagency review would be
carried out and a decision would be made on its completion. reach compliance miss congress by 90 days. turkey's main opposition party has filed a formal request to annul sunday's referendum. it approves constitutional changes they give more power to the president. the opposition says the changes are illegitimate and it will lose all -- use all legal past the challenges. thousands of people rallied in protest. the eu is urging an investigation into what it calls allegedly regularities with the vote. was a 4.2% rise in quarterly profits thanks to on expansion in internet safe services. become best the income rose. tcs is the biggest player in india's tech outsourcing industry. it is facing lower demand from customers facing uncertain economic conditions. global news.
24 hours a day. powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ tracy: thank you so much. the day news in currency markets was sterling which got a jolt after theresa may surprise election announcement. let's head to a macro strategist. lots of people talking about that move in sterling. some people blaming it on short positions getting squeezed. that's a snap election fundamentally change anything for the u.k. or at least enough to sustain that rally in the pound? i don't think it changes much fundamentally in the short term. in the long-term it does have an impact on the brexit negotiations. that is a vital issue. it is long-term. isn't going to change anything in the u.k. economics in the next months or year? not at all.
with aservative party larger mandate will not be changing their policies. the immediate fundamentals are not necessarily major. however, the appreciation can continue. this is a squeeze on a short position. while there is a large move, there still remains on overhang of short positions on the market. this is a backdrop of improving fundamentals of the u.k. economy. growth continues at 1.7% for 2017. it was 1% lower a year ago. bonds is improving from a massive deficit. everything in the u.k. economy is improving compared to three months ago or six months ago, yet the cap -- the positions are very short. after some initial volatility, sterling appreciation can continue. big news this morning was the the 10 year jee got yield close to zero or at yield now. that is the boj pull target of 10 year yields.
this is also a reflection of what is happening with global blonde -- bond yields over u.s. treasury yields continuing to fall. even though we see a slight rebound in asian treasures -- trading. when will this start recovering and will happen to the boj policy to continue on bond poses best purchases in the 10 year sector? >> for the boj they are being driven by what is happening in the global situation in their very much a derivative after the moment. 0% on the 10-year is the target. they will be worried about the flattening of the curve. that is certainly a concern. at some point they might start pulling back their purchases. but then that might send it towards capering. they will ignore some of the current moves. intomight move slightly negative. japanese growth is picking up slightly. on the treasuries issue, it is a much bigger issue. we are seeing the premium being
price that. what is the trump premium? there is no reason why we should go back to yields before the election. there's no reason to erase all of that move. what is the flaw the 10 year u.s. yield? is it 2.05%? i'm not sure exactly. we are getting more towards an equilibrium, more towards a stable level. a long-term move is for yields to rise again. i do not think there's any great excitement there either yet. tracy: we have seen some interesting moves in metals in particular. i'm looking at a chart of iron ore down 1.66% yesterday. it makes me want to make the terrible pun, iron ore more like ouch. please forgive me for that. how much further is that going to go? >> metals is the big issue at
the moment. rather than treasuries, which is a main driver of markets, china equity markets and metals are the big drivers of sentiment globally across all out that that the moment. what is happening in iron is particularly relevant. it is important to put in context that iron ore massively over perform on the upside in the wake of the election and continued to confound analysts. it is always higher than people expect. it will come back 30% from the february highs and that seems pretty extreme, but the move up was an extreme. this is probably an overreaction. the global economy has continued to pick up. yes we probably have a mismatch of excess supply in iron ore, but with the global economy continuing to pick up, i do not think iron ore will continue to fall longer-term. it will find a base soon enough. get -- give ito
to tracy's terrible pun. she made you smile. you can follow mark and his team on his blog. you can get a market run down in one click where there is commentary and analysis from bloomberg expert editors. come we will look at what could be influencing the value of saudi aramco's ipo. first we are tried -- crossing like to the auto show. this is bloomberg. ♪
live on tv and radio. i am in hong kong. tracy: i'm in dubai. let's get a great of the business flash headlines. cadillac says china's luxury auto sector is set to outpaced the market as young buyers consider premium brands. china surpassed the u.s. as biggest market as deliveries there doubled from a year earlier. they said the average age of mainland customers is 32 and 40% of them are first-time buyers. workers takeu.k. their first strike action later wednesday as worries mount about -- brexit'sxit affect on the auto sector. bmw u.k. plant since they took over in 1994. shipas hinted they might
production of the many to mainland europe. they operated totals $4.7 billion, 20% higher than a year ago. that was driven by robust earnings at volkswagen itself to just under $1 billion. speaking at the shanghai auto the ceo said china remains a key market. >> as long as we know the , the market is going to grow despite all the properties. china's electric vehicle market as been growing rapidly with many new players trying to secure a slice. let's go back to the shanghai auto show where a reporter is ofnding by with a ceo electric startup based in silicon valley. tells about the company. joined by a ceo
of a car company. silicon valley and also on the board of microsoft. this is backed by $.10 and another company in china. your unveiled an electric suv that will be hitting the market here in china in 2018. what was eugene a success in terms of sales for next year for this suv? four nio,n we have the suv we unveiled, is to get enough of a customer base for we are selling tens of thousands of these cars. it is to meet the lifestyle of people that by our vehicles very dark think we are embracing this concept, we're using technology to make everything about the buying experience very different
and much more of a pleasure. we have a lot of worries when we buy a car. we have to go through a lot of hassle. we have to keep them are -- car maintained and service. what if you could just enjoy your car? that is what we are focusing on. reporter: how important is it that you are working out the numbers. it is not the main driving force for the strategy. what we really set out to do , we arestarted nio focused on following three big problems. first is productivity loss. spend a lot of time in the car as a driver which is a waste of time. you're stuck in traffic, many people tried to-three hours. shanghai is probably the worst.
or san francisco is also bad. how can technology free up that time. that will be fully realized and we level cointreau or level five autonomy when we really get there. also to reduce the carbon monoxide emissions around the world. it is equally a big problem in the u.s. as well. we have to solve that problem. the third problem is loss of life through injury and accident that lead to death with motor vehicles in the united states. the leading cause of death between people 5-24 is motor vehicle accident. economists technology can help prevent that. those are the three things we're considering. and china we say our vision is to give the users a joyful lifestyle. we think of nio as a user
enterprise. reporter: there are also lots of regulatory challenges, incentive subsidies, taxes, and that the manufacturer is unknown area what is your list in terms of the challenges? >> i am a technologist and many of these challenges we have solved. that is the power of technology. silicon valleyin and lead a team in silicon valley. over the last six months, the amount of innovation that is going into autonomous vehicles is mind blowing. ,very time you read about it i'm very confident a lot of these problems will be solved. already we are looking at charging in a matter of minutes. we are launching in china at the end of the year will have a good
battery technology. we can get charged quickly. reporter: from the startups run big name brands, is there risk of a bubble? >> i am excited about it. i do not think it is a bubble. there is a lot of innovation going on. think about all the centers that you have to drive in two reduce cost of going to economists technology. the battery technology, the charging. many technologies are tapping all of these. ,e are developing a full staff addressing how would you design it? it is a unique way of looking at the cost. reporter: one of the other challenges is attracting talent. the crackdown of the beaches in the u.s., how much is that going to affect you? getting, has always been a
great thing for silicon valley. many students are created by immigrants. i am a greater to the u.s. as a student and then got a visa and created many jobs. we do have access to great talent. we have over 300 people. that it willc still attract great talent and this will not affect the company's relationship to people, so far it is not been an issue. reporter: thank you, the ceo of talking about the electric suv that will be launched in china in 2018 and a challenges around the electric vehicle sector and autonomous driving. some exciting developments from nio. tracy: thanks so much.
that was a fascinating conversation. she is the u.s. ceo of nio, a china back electric vehicle startup. some people think great things are to come. coming up on our show, city sees oil surging to more than $60 a barrel by year end. --will look at what fueling what is feeling that call next. this is bloomberg. ♪
impairments of 1.3 billion versus 810 million last year. certainly some loan loss reserves seems to be picking up there. we will be discussing that more later in the show. but first, oil is never far from our minds. goldmanp has gained sachs in backing commodity saying the markets have to have a little faith area city thinks oil will rally to mid $60 by mid-and -- year and. a correspondent joins us from tokyo with more on this. walk us through the city call here. apologies for butchering your name. walk us through what they are saying? it feels like we have a lot of analysts talking about how we have to wait and sit tight for that rebalancing. pretty bade had a month in march for oil. there is a lot of concern about supplies and thankfully when
it's been happening is as opec has been cutting oil production, we've been seeing u.s. supplies and stockpiles rise. the market has been concerned beut it opec cuts, will it enough to offset the impact of the increased u.s. supplies. they were joining goldman sachs saying you have to be patient because we will see stockpiles strength and opec cuts will be enough. shery: this is the key issue right now. out thereing some that that the pace of inventory declines in the u.s. is slowing. what is the general consensus when it comes to u.s. oil stockpiles at the moment? reporter: at the moment we are seeing oil trade in the range of around 50 or 53 u.s. dollars per barrel. the problem has been that if oil supply start to come down, we
are seeing drilling activity increased. it has been increasing for 13 straight weeks now. while this has been increasing, there has been a lot of focus on whether opec will have to continue their cuts into the second half of this year. that is why there's going to be a lot of focus on the market for may when opec meet again. a lot of analysts say this is already put into the market so unless they extend the cut as assume we could see a big fall from there. tracy: thank you so much. we have more headlines crossing the bloomberg right now. we have a report from the national that arrow cap is potentially pursuing legal cases against formal answering. -- aerotech has an interesting story. looks like the drama is just
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you wouldn't pick a slow race car. then why settle for slow internet? comcast business. built for speed. built for business. >> these are the first word headlines. the pound surges as theresa may called an early election to win backing for brexit. opinion polls if her conservative party h1n1 point lead ahead of the vote on june 8 as she tries to build on the slim parliamentary majority one by her predecessor. she said because of the next election in 2020, the threat to that -- the country's withdrawal. >> we have seen consumer confidence remain high. record numbers of jobs and economic growth has exceeded all expectations. we have also delivered on the
mandates that we were handed by the referendum result. britain is leaving the european union and there can be no turning back. the ceo of credentials $1 trillion active manager says that investors should be looking for opportunity outside the united states. david hunt told bloomberg markets have been over the -- overly optimistic about trump's infrastructure plan. , india, and the eu provide more optimism about a global economy. >> we felt the markets have gotten ahead of themselves in pricing in a lot of these changes which are going to be very complicated and difficult to carry out. beany event, it is going to extremely hard to jumpstart the u.s. economy to the growth rates that the administration was talking about. >> the nikkei news says toshiba spinoffs.4 potential
theyately kyoto says sharp invest in toshiba's memory chip business. there's been little interest from japanese companies, but that government does not want the company to go abroad. have arabia's oil exports fallen to a 2015 low as the kingdom bears the brunt of the opec cut. the gory exports were just under 7 million barrels a day. belowcurrently pumping the ceiling set by the cuts. haveand other producers set to support the prices. global news. 24 hours a day. powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ tracy: thank you so much. there is plenty going on in markets. let's get the mark -- the latest from hong kong. >> certainly we have the order
of the day. it is reflected in a lot of the chinese stocks. .18.hina csi 300 down by it is headed for the lowest close in september 2015. we have taken our lead from what happened from global equity markets. you're still seeing a lot of weakness coming through from australia's asx 200. interestingly, we have started to see a lot of the base metal contracts which have been holding at lows come back. have a look at iron ore which is in their market territory. it is up 2.5%. you're still seeing weakness in the crude market. if we pulled out a little you can see old reflected as well. it is coming off a little from what we saw earlier. but it is holding around a five-month high at 1287 u.s. dollars an hour. let's take a look at stocks in the region.
you are seeing a little bit of upside. we did see morgan stanley saying stocks should be cut. morgan stanley also cut the shares of air china saying that the chinese airlines struggle to increase profits. china air had its biggest fall in 11 months. you can see brambles in sydney on an absolute tear. reflected in the fall and brambles down 24% over the past few months, but brambles coming back today after a solid third-quarter earnings. having a look at the general picture, telcos supported health care flat. seeing risk off across the board today. shery: thank you. the international monetary fund has lowered its growth forecast for saudi arabia and year.
let's hear more from his deputy director. it is a difficult environment. scenario whichhe is most likely to play out, is one of recovery. it is buttressed by strong economic data we are seen at the end of last year and earlier this year. but of course there are many threats to these prospects. you just listed some of them. i would be happy to elaborate on them as you see fit. >> no better time than now. once you elaborate on the now. worried about are the increasing pressures toward in with looking policies that have emerged in various parts of advanced economies. manifestation of
those pressures. having them in our baseline because at the moment we do not see them as the most likely outcome. we are concerned that should politicalot just pressures, but also actions, that would not only have economic consequences directly by curtailing global sources of growth such as trade, but also indirectly through their impact on market confidence. >> so have you see the rebound in commodity prices affecting the global economy? in particular, the cne rebound in emerging markets? >> for commodity prices we have seen a general recovery in
prices. it is remaining very low to where they were a few years back, but they haven't moved up. our reading of the reason is primarily that there are signs that global demand is strengthening. industrial demand and production are picking up, global trade is picking up. of course there are some other of different commodities for oil prices and the opec agreement put some restriction on supplies. it is a bit of a variety of factors at play. i was say wemarket see a lot of differentiation. generaly importers in are doing quite well. that is the case for a lot of economies in asia. commodity exporters are still reeling from the big decline in
prices over the past few years. that was the deputy director of the imf talking about the new growth forecast. here in the region their earnings results are coming in. we have emirates nbd porting first quarter profits. it was better than expectations of 1.7 9 billion total income. it was better than the expected best slightly smaller than that 3.8 6 billion. we will be discussing those results that keep pouring in later on in the show. first let's get back to the imf conversation and turn closer to this part of the world because the international monetary fund has lowered its growth forecast for saudi arabia next year. it has dropped the protection to 1.3% down from 2.3% setback in january. joining us is a reporter from
franklin templeton investments middle east. he is the chief investment officer for a company. thank you for joining us. i want to start with saudi arabia. this is a function on the bloomberg. you can see that the ims projection for saudi arabia's economic growth in 2017 and 2018 is actually more pessimistic than what economists surveyed by bloomberg are forecasting. they are saying growth will increase by the .6% in 2017 and 1.8% in 2018. what does the imf see that the rest of the market has? the imf numbers reflect the adjustments made in the oil economy. let's not forget that most of the gdp of saudi arabia is oil production. the cuts that were enforced in november way down on growth expectations. what we care about is the nonoil growth. is that there is an
acceleration of the nonoil growth in the economy. that is probably embedded in the bloomberg forecast that you mentioned. tracy: let me ask you in existential question. if things like we have people in the market who are positive on saudi arabia at the moment, yet we have issues surrounding the economy and slowing economic growth. how are people squaring that tension? >> the approach is to be very selective. saudi arabia is going through. a great conservation with government policy driving their responses in different sectors very differently. our response is to become selected in the saudi market and look for sectors that are being government and policy they can unlock their potential. there are areas of the economy that are suffering from lefties and subsidies. that is where will be more vulnerable. shery: as tracy was saying, we are getting earnings and fast
across the region. emirates is back. asrates nbd also beating limits -- estimates. what is your sense of the earnings season right now? the earnings season is a challenge right now and he goes to the heart of the matter of the equity market. we are encouraged by the long-term instructor -- structural growth. but short-term, we do see some pressure coming through at these levees get removed as profits begin to get crimped by government policy. we see headwinds on earnings, the economiesms are put on a much more sustainable footing. the evaluation has become more reflective of that environment. we are seeing value selectively in areas of the economy. shery: is there a sector that you should buy? trading ate clearly
multiples today. they are highly capitalized. pressurenow much less on nonperforming loans given the repayments governments have in making. we view it as being highly leveraged. there are very specific opportunities that we are buying. shery: stick around. chief investment officer for a company. we have a lot more coming up. we have to discuss saudi getting how it is playing out for investors. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
tracy: you're watching bloomberg. shery: a quick check of the headlines. saudi arabia will transfer airports to its sovereign law fun and it is part of a push driven by lower oil prices. the airports will be turned into companies before being handed over to help improve accountability. they try to revive its aviation industry after being overtaken by competitors in the uae and qatar. a next goldman banker has been named to run to buy $35 billion investment company. he will become the ceo of dubai holdings. the company says it will follow a new strategy aimed at boosting growth. plans to region a deal with the imf by the end of the month.
after the copper producer has seen its fiscal deficit rise but the foreign exchange reserves falling. economic growth is lowest since 1998 spurring the need for the eighth deal. it was a mixed day of trading in the markets yesterday with dubai getting the most in two weeks while the saudi currency fell to its lowest in two months. we have a reporter with more. start with saudi arabia because that was probably the most interesting story yesterday. what is going on there? goinger: we see saudi through very sharp moves in the past few days. yesterday we had one of the biggest blue-chip names in the losing at least 1% each. that itself have a big impact in the market. one company has been going some issues in the past
three sessions. on top of a resolution, you have insurers in the state that are suing several companies for matters related to 9/11. headlines people do not like to see, especially in saudi where the market is so .uch driven by retail investors sentiment is very delicate about those matters. yesterday's trade was much driven by that kind of sentiment. tracy: it is interesting. we saw that 9/11 issue getting talked about in the bond market, now it has come home to the equity markets. , we had somemarket interesting things happening with the telecom companies. what are you watching? >> that is exactly the opposite. last week they presented good results, one of the first time since 2008 that they presented positive net income. it was a surprise for the
markets. we have stocks jumping more than 20% in the past few days, in the past four sessions. speculationlot of going on related to its competitor which is not resented results yet. a lot of people are betting this should be the trend for them as well. it is hard to come up with a conclusion. it is speculation in the market. that is no clear evidence they will meet the good numbers we saw for the other company. lot of volume of trade with both names. they are increasing on a daily basis within the saudi markets. shery: what about the uae? anything there? >> we have some important announcements made today. we had emirates nbd, a huge bank in dubai. we should see a lot of activity
with their shares here in the dubai stock exchange. we had emirates islamic, not as liquid as emirates nbd, but also an important name here in the uae. who we were arabtec talking about earlier today. the company is going through a major restructuring. we had generally -- general assembly yesterday into pie to -- dubai to approve this huge program they are going through offeringludes a rights of 1.5 billion in the currency. basically, minority shareholders will be wiped off. since stock has lost 30% february when they announced this whole thing. bigwe have a report in a newspaper here in the uae saying that the current management is
going to courts against the previous management. it has been a big trauma within the uae market. tracy: drama indeed. you have a lot to write about today we will let you go. let's talk about emerging markets in general. the right to earn em status has never been tighter with pakistan gaining that status next month and saudi arabia is steering its stock market in that direction as well on course for a possible inclusion potentially next year. consultantmpleton's is still with us. inething that fascinates me markets is the power of index providers in the power of benchmarks. the power seems to be growing with the rise of passive investing. how much of a big deal is the msci e.m. or frontier market index to investors right now?
>> indexes have become massive. the msci has become massive in terms of market flows. is emerging market index tracking $2 trillion. the global markets are tracked by over $11 trillion. any index inclusion into either one of those indices brings with it a significant amount and strong investor returns. buying intod we be saudi arabia or kuwait now before they get included in these msci benchmarks? >> the history of emerging is an includes in exciting conclusion. it shows that if we look at the last 20 inclusion in the 1994ing market index since , the median return in the one year prior to inclusion has been 55%.
themedian return in two-year. preceding the inclusion has been closer to 67%. clearly with inclusion comes significant equity flows. but much further than qatar in in the yearh rally prior to inclusion of the index. manyis one factor among that one would consider in making investment considers desk considerations in either of those markets. i wish we had more time to discuss this. tracy: thank you so much for joining us. show, thelater in the six-month high as theresa may call a snap election. we will be live in london next. this is bloomberg. ♪
theresa may's surprise election announcement. there was quite a surprise yesterday. why was a vote: the first place? call ed -- called in the first place. reporter: she blames the other party and says the she is not getting the consensus in westminster to do what she calls the best deal for the united kingdom. this is actually not rebels within her own party. what is clear is she will increase your majority. she has a majority of 17 right -- in the 650 seat part of parliaments. it does not give her the freest hand she wants to brexit her way . the fascinating things that has happened is the resilience of the data set last
june essentially. how does u.k. economic strain actually play into may's calculations here? moreata has been resilience. one of those pointing to the sweet spot that the u.k. economy is in right now. the sterling is nearly 20% at one point. but u.k. lot of value exports select access to the european markets they did before. there is a sweet spot here. perhaps there is a sense among some that if the consensus party goes up and tries to do a election now it could stop the election -- the next one until 2022. that is one of the key questions. give us more details on what is to come next. now that the general election has been called. >> she needs to win two thirds
of the mp support to go through with her june a plan. that looks likely to be the case. the parties scramble frantically to make sure they have constituents come all makers for constituents to vote for. surprise even to those in her party. parliament will be dissolved on the third of may. looking for the health of exactly where the parties are standing on. that will be any part of party standing on the ripping of script.it that was an edwards outside westminster planning to talk about there. that is it for this edition of bloomberg markets: middle east