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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Australia  Bloomberg  July 3, 2017 6:00pm-7:01pm EDT

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>> a mixed session for wall street. the tech selloff continues. the dollar strengthens on renewed optimism. betty: oil is extending its longest winning streak of the year. u.s. drillers cutting rates for the first time in 24 weeks. >> suvs and trucks give auto sales some hopes. we are not likely to reach last year's record numbers. betty: china and russia say they
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are getting on famously. the u.s. is warned about a new negative tone. >> hello from sydney. --re just past it :00 a.m. 8:00 a.m. betty: it is just after six a clock p.m. in new york. in the next hour, we will look at the asia-pacific trading day. the markets are now on their holiday break. they closed three hours earlier than usual. it was the same story we saw on friday, which was the tech shares dragging down the momentum in the rally. energy shares, financials listing the indexes. as you see, the nasdaq closing down .5%. the tech sector the worst performer overall. kind of a mixed look right now. setting you up for a softer tone in asia perhaps.
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pid,i: pretty cap it -- te and understandably going into a shorter trading session. is there a justification for the fed saying that the weakness is transitory. here in asia, looking a little seeingid, but we are tokyo and sydney futures looking high. we are up .1%. the kiwi dollars at 72.90. as the factory data howard the currency ahead. .6%ey futures are up by after two days of hefty losses. friday for the worst since the u.s. election. we are not expected to move, but looking for guidance as to where they can go from here. the aussie dollar at 76.55.
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look at commodities. this is on the back of the china pmi. by .2%.ures are up crude rallied 10%, just under 10% over eight days great that is after a tumble from the bear markets. perhaps u.s. rebuilds are starting to decline for the first time in 24 weeks on friday. that is taking some of the negative sentiment out of the market. let's get you caught up with the first word news. nina: china has told the u.s. that relations between the two powers are being affected by negative elements. the president, in a phone call with president trump was reported by state media. naval carrier.s. near a chinese controlled island. the two leaders will meet this week at the g-20 in hamburg.
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she has arrived in russia for talks with president putin just hasn't relations with the u.s. have hit rough waters. signw and beijing will agreements over the two day visit. russia china relations are the best in history as they were described. he said officials are seeking a window for putin and the president of china to meet on the side at the g-20. a response to the saudi inspired list of 13 demand in the letter to the him era of kuwait. maybe the month-long crisis can be resolved. qatar's leader remains strong with signing throughout the country in support. the saudi law will mean wednesday -- meet monthly to plan the next move. opec oil production moved to the highest of the year in june. members except from the output pumped more crude. cartel nations raise collective output by 260,000 barrels a day.
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cap of which came from libya and nigeria. rose stronglys with oil extending his longest run of gains this year. sinceng the longest rally 2012. global news. 24 hours a day. powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ betty: thank you. markets closing mixed on monday. that was the shortened trading day. trading weekned because of the independence day holiday, everybody off tomorrow. ramy inocencio is here with the numbers. start us off with what we saw today. ramy: we saw the mixed picture. the dow is a standout because it ended, not just in the green, but it touched a fresh day high up by 243 points. we did pair that back to end up 130 points. not hitting a record high in
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terms of the close. -- nasdaqlogy shares is down .5%. that is where we saw the biggest fall. pop into the bloomberg terminal with me. i'm a to show you a function brady can see the sector health of these 12 sectors. look at that, up 2%. information technology down .9%. out financials are doing pretty well on the first trading day of the week, up by 1.3%. losers, into the big information technology -- we will break this up our into the four biggest ones. facebook, andft, apple that shares down on the day. for every two that were up in terms of the s&p tech, the five stocks were down. all down on the order of their lowest since april. on the flipside, let's take a look at the winners. the big winners for energy all on the up. exxon mobil one of the biggest list before the energy sector here along with chevron as well
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as conoco phillips. interestingly, we are talking about this because of what is happening in terms of the oil account. look at the bloomberg terminal. i want to show you #1624. i want to tell you what is happening here. right-hand side, this is the first time we are seeing a pullback in terms of the active rate counts. just down by a couple. that is definitely pushing oil up $47.e order of 2%, that is its longest stretch in the past eight days. definitely a sigh of relief there. yours aheadoil, u.s. auto sales coming up today. we saw a reaction didn't we? ramy: i was watching the numbers come out earlier. we talked about these eating on the decline for the past five months.
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i was expecting six months of declines, but then i saw these in a bloomberg terminal, it was another beach. there were more hits than mrs. this time, and that is pushing shares up. let's look at the biggest pops in terms of our auto companies here. fiat chrysler up 4%. general motors up all beating estimates. at their highest since march, especially for general motors. one company that was on the downward trend is your modern day electric car stock. that is tesla, down 2.5%. the closinge after bell which was at 1:00 p.m. eastern today. it announced that there were 22,000 cars that were shipped versus 25,000 in the first quarter. not enough battery packs. we will see how shares react to this when we open again on wednesday. about another day -- day in a have to go. haidi: thank you for that.
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have rescuedks u.s. auto sales again as remy was just touching on a few minutes ago. it is unlikely 2017 will match last year's record. manufacturers still selling expense trucks and sport utility vehicles. that is good news for investors. let's take a deeper look at the numbers. we are managing expectations, but things are looking up. were down 3%.les ford and gm were down 5% each area the market love it. this is counterintuitive because auto stocks have been beaten up of the past five months -- really the past year. what really happened was it was not as bad as people thought. there is some sentiment now that maybe the on the market is not going into a deep swoon, it is just deadly eroding. then if you look deeper at the which selling
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poorly are compact cars and family sedans. , alsore not selling well the rental agencies are in the middle of restructuring. they are not buying a lot of cars either, they are certainly not buying those cars. car companies do not make much money on them anyway. there are selling retail vehicles would sell at higher prices great pickup trucks and suvs celebrate margin. you have stable sales. it is slightly down, but near last year's record. it is only high margin, profitable stop. investors think they will double down and debt on that a bit. that is why we saw the stocks go up today. starting to see this dichotomy when it comes to auto buyers here? david: gasoline is still cheap. you're seeing car companies come out with new suvs over the past five years. they're much more fuel efficient than they used to be. there is not as much gear -- if you will not be's that with a gas hog.
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the vehicles are nicer. there what is hit. the other thing, baby boomers still by a lot of vehicles. they do not want to get into a sports car or sedan anymore. they like his that into walk ing that is more height. there is a lot of that. it is a sociological thing, but it is very true. ports car sales are getting killed in this market. the oldest of the boomers are in their 70's. suvs are more comfortable. millennial's are starting to get into family years. it is something more roomier for kids. it makes more sense for them. suvs are the in vehicle right now. betty: you mention it looked like these numbers are not going into a deep dive or deep swoon, but the market is deteriorating. of this be itense is or what might turn this around? .avid: the market is going down
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3% right now. it has been pretty consistently down all year long. pulling it has been back on rental fleet sales. retail sales have been flat or down ever so slightly. againould turn it around -- pretty good job news in the u.s. unemployment is very low. if you are to see some wage growth, you might see that bounce up a little bit better. i think we will not see a balance here, we are where we maybeing to be and slightly eroding. it will be a pretty healthy level of auto sales and enough for these companies to make very good money for some time to come. betty: thank you for that. david in detroit on u.s. auto sales numbers we got today. still ahead, we look at the risks and rewards of facebook's possibly intro into australia's market. they have a lot of competition. next, decision day in
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australia. find out why economists are unusually divided when it comes to what the rba will do next? rangsit university this is bloomberg. ♪
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betty: good morning. i'm in new york. haidi: i'm in sydney. you're watching "daybreak australia." bank of australia is expected to hold at its low rate. but we see some changes to see the bank set in step with his peers? a reporter here with some analysis. lots of cross currents for the rba here it what are we expecting here? global central banks were not signaling that so many of them are looking to start removing stimulus moving toward tighter holocene. cannot be any questions to put over the rba meetings today
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because we know they will keep their key rate at 1.5%. the economy has gotten stronger. there are so many cross currents, it is not time to think about responding to a stronger labor market with higher rates. but, because there is this global tilt toward hiring, there are wondering is reserve bank of australia going to jump on board? its policy statement move from neutral to something signaling down the road the next move could be a rate hike. we know a strong labor market, that is a plus. march-may, a lot of momentum in the australia labor market area on the other hand, you still have high household debt. raising rates would put more pressure on people to service that debt. goes i have services that are very sluggish. let's look at a bloomberg chart. it is #btv eight 943. look over here, you can
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see in this part of the screen -- i'm cleaning that up for you, the bars are employment. red line is export. exports have been strong. another reason the rba can be encouraged to hang that higher rates than the road. peak, thisstart to could mean the labor market is speaking as well. there is probably a correlation. down,n see exports going jobs come down. as exports start rising, you can see jobs of gun stronger again. intelligence team is cautious on the second half. it china continues to deleverage, it is growing. commodity prices are already slowing. that is a concern. enough so that the bloomberg intelligence team was suggesting signal, rba is ready to
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even as they don't really need to. as he said, there is debate on both sides of this issue. some people think the next one will be a hike. others say no way, the next will be a cut. haidi: yes and pretty significant moves if you look at the work function depending on what data comes out. i want to bring in stephen, a market economics expert joining us from hamburg. great to have you. we have been saying that the rba has relatively high. you have the situation. let me bring up the situation to illustrate the conundrum they are in. weak wage growth, record low wage growth. record high household debt. home prices in major cities still high. what can they do? they can do nothing. sit on their hands another month or it has been 10-11 months and say last adjusted rates. they had the situation where
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they are trying to work out what is the best thing to get the economy growing at 3%. if you look at the recent forecasts, they are facing their gdp bouncing back to 3% or more within a month. that will continue to grace a little bit lower. that might happen, but as you were just discussing, there are some cross currents in the economy. our concern is that the consumer side of the economy, which is over 50% of gdp, remains sluggish. there has not been the income boost needed to fuel a pickup in consumer spending. we hear about every day, household debt, so the willingness and ability to take on more debt is somewhat limited. even though there are better moves, it is still not the sort see liftingmentum i australian gdp to 3%. on the contrary, i see some
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sluggishness coming through. mentioned the household debt, i want to pull up a chart on the bloomberg. it is g #dtv 956. pull it up. trend ofyou a rising the australian household debt, that is the white line. switzerland and certainly far above what we are ,eeing in canada and denmark which has recently started to come down. as you say, it seems like it would make sense that the next move is likely going to be a cut from the rba. why do you think economists such as yourself are split? why is the community so split? some see a hike, others see a cut -- when you see numbers like this? i look at the bloomberg interest rate survey that comes out every friday afternoon.
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have a look at who is forecasting what. my observation -- a casual observation -- is that global banks, the ones that are saying the rate hikes being delivered in the u.s. in being spoken about in canada, the u.k., and ecb, they are more hawkish on the australian economy that's perhaps because they are seeing great heights in their part of the world. if you look at the domestic banks here on australia, they are all on hold. a number of us think it will move down. i think the split is coming to this discussion about household debt. we get so much coverage about. one thing is important to remember which is against the rate cut, the debt is not just used for nothing, it is allocated to other financial assets. if you look at the number of assets on the other side of the debt asset balance sheet, household assets are at a record high as well. it is being used to boost well. consumers are still doing pretty
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well, it is a question of do they have the wherewithal to boost spending at a time when wage growth is so low? it seems like if central banks around the world, the fed, the ecb -- they were not looking to start raising rates, it would be much less of an issue. it would be very easy frustrated just to sit tight. look at chart 6554 looking at the aussie dollar. it has been climbing even though the key rate hike has been affected from the recent selloff yesterday. is this tiltsure toward removing stimulus around the world, putting on the rba, and have you sorted out in the market? stephen: that is a really good issue. the curious thing to me is the rally in the aussie dollar in recent reeks -- weeks.
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at the hawkish speculation has gathered momentum. rba police their own index of commodity prices. it was down 5% in the month of june. we know that while the iron or price and gold price are volatile, they generally have been tracking lower since the start of the year. int is going to put a dent income growth. you look at some of the big mining stocks, their share prices have been weakening along with this general falling commodity prices. yes they have rebounded a little in the last 10 days, but i'm still concerned about whether there will be excess supply of -- the two key commodities for australia. to theeeps tracking higher 70's, even if the rba does sound the hawkish tone, you are running a risk of hurting the path of the economy. tourism and education are very strong at this point.
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you run a risk of the aussie dollar getting to a level that is uncomfortable and making the conundrum bigger for the rba. dollares the aussie higher which confuses the optimism in the economy. haidi: perhaps we will not know much more at all. stephen, thank you so much for that. market economics expert. and kathleen joining us for the conversation. we have more on the rba's decision later on bloomberg. if you are watching in hong kong, that is 20 minutes to 10:00. by a bombayoined stock exchange's ceo. that is at 11:40 if you're watching in hong kong. markets,uest on number
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that is coming on at 12:10 sydney time. ♪
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betty: let's get a quick check of the business flash headlines. ubs is streamlined its wealth management business in europe and will expand the role of the senior executives across the region. cross-border operations will be combined with domestic businesses to reduce the number of offshore booking centers from 10 to three. switzerland, germany, and the u.k.. wealth managers are under pressure from low rates in market uncertainty. haidi: executives told a london reported that they will deny conspiracy to commit fraud. by the mosteo's senior u.k. bank executive to
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face criminal charges since the financial crisis. it relates to funds made available to qatar in a deal that made $15 billion. we continue focus on bank action next and how they react to haidi: it is a: 30 a.m. here in
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sydney. futures showing a little more upside. i am here in sydney. in newi am betty liu york, where it is 6:30 p.m. you are watching "daybreak: australia." the japanese finance minister is strengthening his political power base to give him more control over the ruling liberal democratic party. he also pledged support for shinzo abe after a bruising defeat in tokyo elections. positiond put him in
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for rewriting japan's 70-year-old constitution. they are close to a free trade thanthat account for more a quarter of the world's economic output. a basic deal is in place. an announcement should come on thursday. japan once to move levies on auto exports. suv's and truck's continue to shore up the u.s. auto market. seems to be little chance of catching last year's record. be one of the best years in history. most automakers saw better sales than projected last month. investors like the news, pushing gm and ford shares higher. with production held back by a
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temporary shortage of batteries. 22,000 cars and suvs, impaired to 25,000 in the first quarter. tesla says the new model three will go into production on friday. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 27,000 journalists and analysts. this is bloomberg. haidi: thanks so much for that. let's get you a quick update on the markets. we get the trading day started in asia and new zealand. kiwi dollar at 72.92. eeks asgest gain in two w we have the strong factory data out of the u.s. futures and australia moving higher after it fell off yesterday.
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a more broad look around the region. a slightly weaker yen. we are set up for a stronger open as nikkei futures are stronger. of 16 last week. byt a reminder, the s&p up .25 percent. lack of volume going into the fourth of july. let's get more on what we should he watching as trading gets underway in asia. the all the dollar -- aussie be on the mind of policy makers because it has not done what they expected it to do. >> it has been on a really good run of late. just to listen to a couple of things. they made an interesting point. they are saying aussie dollar
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bulls, beware. rba to makewant the any kind of signal to the country. they are saying that they want to wait for the inflation numbers at the end of this month before the indicate any change of stance. rallyingt the aussie hard with any of these numbers. betty: folks at bank of america are asking, could this be the end of a bull run for equities? are you -- what are the indicators telling you? adam: this is a proprietary indicator that the folks at bank of america use. they use it as a contrarian indicator. they use it to see when things have gotten to euphoric levels in a bull market.
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they are saying that this is where we are at the moment for u.s. equities. the indication is that they will have some kind of cell down with any level of magnitude of u.s. stocks. of indicator is one of many that traders and investors use to gauge market timing. of course, allocations to u.s. stocks are very overweight. some people have then holding those downs. they have been moving money into european shares, which, of course, have been outstanding performers in the first half of this year. all of this builds to tell one more picture in this story of u.s. stocks. we are potentially entering some kind of inflection point where we could see some kind of turn in a bull market. we will see how it develops over
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the next few months. betty: thank you so much. u.s. factories are powering ahead. their fastest at pace in three years in june. yesterday in asia, the same. europe, latin america. many major economies have moved higher. will this fuel determination towards tightening? has more.hays here >> pretty impressive. like every economy nowadays, it has varying degrees of importance. it can fuel hiring and fuel investment. very impressive. i am going to show you a chart. btv973. the head number hit 57.8 in
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june. that happens to be the wonderful turquoise line. look how it shot up there. the other is production. look at the white line. the purchasing managers are asked about their businesses. are you hiring more? are you producing more? it is more of a survey. even so, both of those trends are moving higher. i want to give you some of the details about what is powering this move. new orders at a six-month high. 63.5 production growth. the employment gauge at 57.2, its highest since 2011. moreu, agiain, add one note, the question about investment leadtimes.
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the majority are looking further out into the future as they plan investments. they are moving ahead. that is another strong signal to the manufacturing sector of the united states. in china, that puts managers back above 50. japan's survey of manufacturers are getting a lot more optimistic. close, itthe pmi is still above 50. , it's global purchasing number state at 52.6. they were definitely losers. purchasing managers slowed. a tended to stay well above 50. local manufacturing is powering ahead. fed,: particularly the maybe they are doing the right thing after all. kathleen: it is one more thing they put on the table when they talk about what is happening
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next. manufacturing is growing. eventually, more investment. the fed has to be looking at this picture more broadly. jobs, are they growing? inflation is not rising. in the u.s., this is not translating into higher prices. we turn to europe. we heard from the european central bank. inflation is not self sustained. we have to be patient on policy. it is just like the u.s. they have pulled back after approaching targets. reuters had a story saying that some officials are cautious. they are worried about a change in their easing. change in the currency market after mario draghi spoke. the interpretation was that that would happen soon. is there any question about how
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this would play out in japan? very was anything that would signal a move towards higher rate. if you think you will be a central bank official and start raising rates, manufacturing is a signal. this is not enough to turn the tide. it is something that you could argue to make the case. haidi: adding building to that picture, if you will. a sunny april turns into a stormy july. views of the u.s. have turned negative since mar-a-lago. you remember that? this is bloomberg. ♪
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i am betty liu in new york. haidi: and i am haidi lun in sydney. a negative turn in relations with the u.s. according to a chinese broadcaster. the change in tone comes just days before the g-20, where he will be meeting with president trump. you are saying that maybe the honeymoon is over. the bromance has cooled. things are looking more delicate. >> may the honeymoon is not completely over. they are going through a rough patch. president trump was really like china or to help with north korea. they have to find a good allen's. president trump did have calls with abe and the deputy prime minister ping.
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both sides said that they think that they agree that china should do more on reining in north korea. pull itslly needs to socks up in terms of north korea. there have been a series of moments that have not pleased aging at all. have beene, we reporting on this u.s. destroyer that went very close to a small island in the south china sea area. china is one of the countries that has laid claim to it. billion arms deal was proposed by the trump administration. there was a proposal of listing china among the world's human trafficking offender.
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this is one of the issues that may make it not friendly. this is all adding up. when it comes to taiwan especially, this is a sensitive area for china. any movements there will be taken very seriously. president trump did break protocol accepting a phone call from the taiwanese president. compared tothat big those proposed by previous administrations. inis is a bit of a thorn china's side. isty: we see that xi jinping in moscow at the same time. rosalind: he has talked with vladimir putin. there will be formal talks on tuesday. that relationship appears to be proceeding in the normal matter.
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patches, had a rocky as with the u.s. vladimir putin will meet with the u.s. president for the first time at the g-20. they will meet to discuss north korea. interesting a very meeting, given the tensions surrounding the relationship. betty: thank you so much. rosalind chin there on the dynamic between putin and trump. we can get to the stories that you need to get your day going. bloomberg subscribers can no to their terminals. this is also available on mobile. you can customize your settings so that you only get the news on the industries and the assets that you care about.
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betty: good morning.
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i am betty liu here in new york. haidi: and i am haidi lun in sydney. the three biggest shippers are expected to establish a combined container operation this week. there have been approval delays. all of the necessary international permits have been attained. the venture will create the carrier.ixth largest it is set to launch in april. refiner japanese oil hopes to raise $1.2 billion from a-shares sale. opposition from the company that controls about 34% of the stock. one third is needed to block the merger. haidi: a chinese name does not
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have the cachet of a french or italian one. they attracted thousands. tang ranked fifth among chinese liars among the european brands. apple is said to be working on technology that a phonesers to open using facial recognition technology instead of a fingerprint. nrated security system scans the user's face. apple is testing iris scanning, that may not be ready at launch time. phase could become the identifier. facebook is seeking a p or payments in australia.
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just announcedat that they are coming into the australian market. this has all been blocked on the initiative group. it is good to have you on the program. this could be just the patent proper course by facebook in several markets including australia. is there any reason why? facebook would want to target australia with payments. >> good morning, betty. australia is quite at the forefront of most payments technology. consumers are very quick adopters of new ways to pay, as evidenced by the fact that australia leads the world in contactless payments. in terms of person to person payments, which is what facebook
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was injured is focused on, it is an interesting market. it is hard to make any money out of it. you and i do not want to pay each other to pay each other, if you know what i mean. there are lots of ways you can pay other people which costs you nothing. bety: why would this particular to australia though? i would imagine that all around the world, people do not want to pay each other to pay each other? u.s., venmo is the prevalent p to p system. it has taken off very strongly. way toebook, it is a keep people to stay on their page. they want people to interact
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with facebook and purchase things through facebook. having payments on their facilitates that. banks? how about the advanced are the banks with p to payyments? the on the go system. how much are they at the forefront of this? lance: later this year, the banks and the payment industry the new payments platform. one of the services will be an pstant, real-time, p to system called osco. that will mean that i can pay haidi instantly and the money will immediately move from my account to hers. that is quite different than facebook messenger in the u.s.,
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which is a debit card to debit card system, which can take 3-5 days. haidi: is this kind of a self-cannibalization for the banks? lance: it is true that there will be some movement of the direct movement system. onto the new platform. it's really going to attack cash and checks. if you and i go out and we need to split the bill after dinner, we do not need cash. do not write me a check in australia. other theco each money. we can immediately pay and settle our debts. haidi: the interesting thing we were talking about, it seems to be there needs to be
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consolidation. chat is just second nature. why has australia not caught on? lance: not as quick? i think that australia has been i think that australia has been very well served by lots of different payment systems, whereas other parts of the globe have not had the same level of infrastructure. absolutelye chat tapped into that. everybody is using it to pay each other and pay merchants. for, cards have dominated many years. cap and go payments are really quick at points of sale. quickly, are we setting ourselves up for a battle between the tech companies and the banks? who do you think is going to win
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out? the tech -- lance: companies are using the banking rails to move the money. it is all about the customers. who gets the customers on their app, on their website? the banks would prefer you to be theirg at their app, website. facebook would prefer you to look at its. different aspects of the population will gravitate towards their own comfort zone. not everybody uses facebook. not everybody uses internet banking. it is different things for different people. a kind of competition is good for the market. haidi: the managing director of the initiative group. for the next couple of hours, "daybreak: asia." we will continue to look at the electionsom the tokyo
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and the increasing number of scandals engulfing the abe administration. mind that he is not in any immediate threat in terms of losing his job. what is next in terms of damage control leading up to this national election next year? there has been talk about unpopular policies, including revising the pacifist constitution. also, maybe another delay in the sales tax hike. betty: we are going to talk to david could love, the mainstay capital advisor right here in this country. he is going to weigh in on the foreign investors' view on japan. obviously, the tech selloff that we have seen and also commodities. we are going to continue
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to look at the outlook when it comes to the market. a lot has been happening in terms of the market. whoooo. you're searching for something. like the perfect deal... ...on the perfect hotel. so wouldn't it be perfect if there was a single site where you could find the right hotel for you at the best price? there is. because tripadvisor now compares prices from over 200 booking sites... save you up to 30%... ...on the hotel you want. trust this bird's words. tripadvisor. the latest reviews. the lowest prices.
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>> asia-pacific shares are set to rise after wall street saw some fresh highs on renewed optimism. oil is extending its best winning streak of the year. brent is on its longest run since 2012. 's and truck's give hope to auto sales, although we are not likely to hit last year's numbers. >>


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