tv Bloomberg Best Bloomberg July 9, 2017 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
♪ "bloombergp on best," the stories that shaped the world in business. the g-20 summit began and it final of uncertainty for the world's most powerful nation, while a missile launch in north korea throws another wrench into the years of diplomacy. >> they are without question going to try to continue to pressure china to put more economic pressure on north korea. >> a new trading link provides access to china's markets. investors wonder what to make of june's u.s. jobs report. >> the bad news is this doesn't do a whole lot for wages. >> the leader of the left in britain explains his stance on brexit. >> it would be a partnership
with europe in the future, but not membership of the european union. >> assessing the latest plan to save the bank. >> there is clarity and transparency. >> and half of 2017 is in the books. was the playbook for the second half? there is some inherent momentum in the u.s. economy. >> we run the risk of a market event. >> most credit markets look pretty expensive. >> i don't know how you are supposed to trade in nuclear war. i'm not sure i would never do that. >> it is all straight ahead on "bloomberg best." ♪ anchor: hello and welcome. i'm david westin. this is bloomberg best, your weekly review of the most important business news, analysis, and interviews from around the world.
geopolitical tensions set the dominant tone this week leading up to the g-20 meeting and hamburg friday. hopeful began with a note for investors with the opening of a new bond link to mainland china. the bond connects between china and hong kong has finally gone live, the third that gives new access to the mainland's $10 trillion debt market. live atond connect went least in one direction, heading north into china. no timetable according to dignitaries today for southbound, but it is an inevitability. is going to happen -- it is going to happen. nearly $10 trillion bond market, but less than 2% of that is in the hands of foreigners.
there's lots of potential. a lot of risks, as well. a lot of questions about transparency in china's corporate bond market, and the issuing of ratings, whether they are a true representation of the risks. -- thechinese market chinese bond market is a bit like the chinese stock market. they can change policies of the drop of a hat. we saw a recent plunge in yields because of a crackdown that no one saw coming. foreign investors are a little bit unsure whether to get in. anchor: north korea has fired another ballistic missile. it is the 11th test this year at a time of renewed tensions between the u.s. and china. how should we interpret this aggravation and this move again? >> the timing was very intriguing because it is right on the eve of july 4, and tenant stay in the u.s..
also if you do so at -- independent stay in the u.s.. also a few days -- and dependence day -- independence day in the u.s. also a few days away from the g-20. there is speculation that it , which,ve been an icbm if they take it further, could reach the continental u.s., particularly the west coast. >> demand for assets has and a little bit in spite of concerns over north korea's missile tests. the u.s. confirms the rocket launch on july 4 was an internet middle -- was in and gotten a ballistic missile -- and intercontinental ballistic missile. >> they are without question going to continue to pressure china to put more economic pressure on north korea to deal with the growing threat of their nuclear program. before president trump took off
on air force one, he tweeted "trade between china and north korea grew almost 40% in the first quarter. so much for china working for us, but we had to give it a try." anchor: federal reserve will release the minutes from its june meeting, where officials forged ahead with a rate hike despite growing concerns over weak inflation. these fedys from minutes, there was no agreement on when the fed will again trimming. number two, a very rigorous debate showing quite a divided committee over the question of where inflation is headed. anber three, there was explicit mention of high equity valuations underscoring the message that senior fed officials gave last week. ofhor: very little in terms new information that the market was hoping for on the timing of the beginning of tapering. anything and this that you think
perhaps gives a shift to that? >> i think you are 100% correct. divided the committee appears to be, the more the minutes will ultimately be interpreted. if they can't build consensus internally, it will be much harder to deliver the combination of a taper and a rate hike by the end of the year. pretty confident we will get one of the other. bank hashe central published their account of the monetary policy meeting. it is kind of like the fed minutes without the detail. concerns that small communication changes can be misperceived, urged not to overestimate the impact of electoral cycles. the council also considered whether to adjust financial conditions. that outlook is essentially unchanged. notes that it can be
reviewed is the outlook improves. >> what they are intelligent is that the economy is doing a much utter -- is doing much better gin -- than the beginning of the year. they have said that the risks of the economy are now balanced. the next thing they have to talk about is what to do about the asset purchase program. that is one where markets will be quite sensitive. ♪ inhor: employment up 222,000 june, that's the good news. plus another 47,000 jobs, so we are well over forecast. ,nemployment rises to 4.4% largely because more people entered the labor force. take note, the bad news is this doesn't do a whole lot for
wages, up just 2/10 on the month , still well under the 2.9% high we saw in december. >> i still think despite this rather strong jobs report from the standpoint of jobs gain -- not necessarily from wages, -- the fed has one hike perhaps left in the year, and that is probably in december. anchor: president trump and president putin just finishing their meeting at the g-20. u.s. officials are saying that the u.s. and russia averaged an agreement for a cease-fire in southwest syria. those pictures you see were from before they went into their face-to-face meeting. >> the two leaders had real admiration for each other. they weren't just pleasant words. president putin referred to
donald trump as "your excellency, mr. president." president trump said it was "an honor" to be speaking to president clinton -- president putin. both said they expected a positive outcome. the meeting stretched far beyond the two-hour length. wasbviously the meeting extremely eye-catching, the melodramatic moment of the day. it is also very important to remember that there are a wide ranging conversations going on here. angela merkel says there are deep divisions emerging at the summit over trade. there is no agreement on the communique right now. you see a little bit of the g-7 summit in sicily where the paris climate issue hung over the whole thing. meeting is certainly
extremely important. it will be interesting to see what happens there. from the rest of the world, trade could be the most important story here this weekend. ♪ anchor: still ahead as we review the week on scarlet:," -- on experts lookst," ahead to what investors can expect in the second half of this year. up next, more of the week's top business stories. prime minister shinzo abe's party takes a beating in the tokyo election. >> i don't think this is actually about the economy at all in this case. anchor: this is bloomberg. ♪
let's continue our global tour italy,top stories with where they agreed on a new rescue plan for the troubled lender. the bank has laid out a five-year restructuring plan, which includes cutting thousands of jobs and selling assets. the eu said the troubled lender could receive 5.4 billion euros in state aid, only after shareholders and junior creditors had already treated 4.3 billion to the bank. re: now at the end of the troubles? -- are we now at the end of the troubles? >> they are obviously addressing some of the inefficiencies that have burdened the bank. i guess going forward, the key will be to maintain those efficiencies when it comes to lending processes.
the theme that has weighed on italian banks more generally is lending practices that should not really have been getting them into this situation in the first place. ♪ anchor: prime minister shinzo abe's ruling party was well beaten and a local election in tokyo. comment from the prime ministers say he is going to try to move forward with this. >> i don't think this is about the economy at all. tokyo's economy is doing pretty well. there are two jobs for every job applicants in tokyo. i don't think the economy was a factor. the start is down to power she has built up in the capital over the years as she has been governor, and the other lbp, abe and the his cabinet. voters are expressing their anger at the ballot box. anchor: japanese prime minister shinzo abe may scrap some of his
most divisive policies after his party's crushing defeat in the tokyo election. what is likely to be on the chopping block? guest: the most controversial policy he has in his plans is to change the pacifist constitution. that is something that divides the electorate. the question is, will given the state of his public support, the lack of discipline in his party, whether he is really prepared to push ahead with this idea which would take a lot of energy and mike portray him as someone less interested in the economy that he is that -- and might portray him as was someone less interested in the economy then perhaps he should be. ♪ >> there is little doubt the market was extracting a more --
was expecting a more hawkish tone from the rba. we didn't get that. we got was a very neutral statement. very little change from the previous statement. the aussie dollar sold off a little accordingly, down about 3/4 of a cent. they are often a little bit misplaced. not toe very anxious fuel that strength in any way, and perhaps stall and economic recovery in australia. anchor: automakers are gaining after june u.s. auto sales mostly bit market estimates -- mostly beat market estimates. is this a giveback for last month's dismal figures? it still might be a down month overall. the kleins we are seeing are
pretty substantial from gm, ford , -- the declines we are seeing are pretty substantial from gm, ford, fiat chrysler. up becauseres are what investors are really liking is a little bit of discipline on the incentives. they are not eating into their margins. lightpecially the mix of trucks and pickups and suvs, that is where automakers make their money, and where u.s. automakers make their money especially. that is the overriding theme of the sales. that is why investors are so bullish today. ♪ executives former appeared in london today, facing allegations dating back to the 2008 financial crisis. what happened in court today? >> they had the charges read out to the defenders and decide on bail. the judge decided that jenkins
must pay 500,000 pounds. because he is based in malibu, it is obviously a heightened risk for flight. they were also asked if they wanted to indicate a plea at this stage. that is not a formal arrangement, but they can give an indication. all four indicated they would plead not guilty. anchor: hsbc is said to approach peter hancock as a possible future ceo. >> he claims to have invented the derivatives business. he is a banker, but most recently ran an insurance company.
it didn't end the best way for him, but his reputation is still somewhat intact. is 20 years old. the fact that they are looking at external candidates is not surprising in itself. if they then pick a second one for ceo and chairman it will be a big departure for the bank. anchor: global banks are preparing to move london-based operations as britain thursday -- asthe eu that prepares britain prepares to leave the eu. what are we talking about here? guest: they have said previously it could be a mix of the two. you get 2000 and the front office and the back-office. some of this will depend on how the negotiations unfold and how hard the brexit appears to be. what you have here is deutsche bank not only looking at the
people's aside, but on the assets side and making plans to set up a booking center in their front for office -- in their frankfurt office to route trading through there. that potentially is a way to address the passporting issue. ♪ anchor: the saudi led block with qatarvered ties with said that they reply showed complacency and a lack of seriousness to do with the problem, but stop short of imposing sanctions ramy: -- sanctions. >> the saudi led alliance has said they will meet in bahrain to discuss qatar's response to the list of demands. they have not said exactly when they would do this. we have to watch for the impact on qatar. that could come about through something like inflation, higher
food import prices, pressure on , higher financing costs. we also saw a downgrading of qatar's credit rating. they are one of the wealthiest countries in the world. the question remains how long , how long isstand comfortable with standing this kind of economic and political pressures from some of its once closest allies in the region. ♪ anchor: the bank of japan has asserted control over the nations bond yield, sending borrowing costs lower. the central bank offered to buy benchmarks 10-year note. after drop to 0.085% having more than doubled in the past week, while the yen with into a loss. >> what happened again today is the boj has said this is where
what the process to be. this is what we want the used to be. basically threatening the global market. that was putting pressure on japanese yields to also rise. that globalhink bond yields rising should put pressure on japanese bond yields to rise. they will act to make sure that the 10 year yield stays below or at the level they have set, which is 0.1%. ♪
he sat down with guy johnson to discuss political possibilities. guest: we did very well in the election. we didn't win the majority of seats, but we put on a very large number of votes. the put forward an incredible economic alternative to this government. this government doesn't have a majority. it has a very strange deal with the democratic unionist party, and it doesn't seem very stable. i think things could change quite quickly. we could at some point have another election. i don't know when, but we are ready for it. very ready for it. reporter: there are many unknowns in british politics of the moment. one of the great unknowns is where jeremy corbyn stands on brexit. we hear this all the time. i am curious as to why you are being as vague as you are on the subject. when are you going to provide a little transparency under thinking?
guest: fundamentally we want to make sure there is tariff free trade access to the european trade market. that is crucial. half of our trade is with europe . secondly that we do not become sort of offshore tax havens on the shore of europe, hence the response i just gave to the chamber of commerce about levels of taxation. thirdly that european nationals are guaranteed unilaterally rights to remain in britain with full citizenship and rights of family reunion. i think that is crucial. university maintain connections across europe and a broadly similar level of regulation of consumer products, environmental and workers rights. it would be a partnership with europe in the future, not membership of the european union. we accept the results of the referendum. reporter: is single market
compatible with brexit? guest: the single market is a concept that requires membership with the european union. what we are looking for is a tariff free access to european markets. our shadow team has had many discussions with the eu officials, members of the european parliament, and we have a good relationship with socialist parties all across europe who want to work with us in the future. i will be in brussels next thursday having an extended meeting to outline what our issues are. ♪ david: coming up on "bloomberg best," distinguished guests tell us where they see markets heading in the second half of 2017. and straight ahead, more of the week's top interviews with global financial leaders. australian treasurer scott morrison defends the rosy predictions in his latest budget. guest: our forecast hit very closely with where the ins is,
♪ david: welcome back to "bloomberg best." the deal proposed this week to rescue the struggling monte dei paschi bank is the latest chapter in an ongoing saga. already09, they have received and repaid 4 billion euros in taxpayer bailouts. , and jonathan ferro asked him why this plan will work better than all the others. guest: i think it is the first that the precautionary model is actually applied to a european institution. i do believe a lot of attention
has been paid to structure the plan. our aim was to have something which will allow the bank to start working again in a sort of stable and normal commercial framework. i think we did get there. reporter: there are some people that say the eu is being a little more lenient, more flexible with its own rules. from your standpoint, from the , what monte dei paschi do you think? guest: i think rules need to be implemented,hat but then we must have a checkpoint to see whether rules do actually function properly. whether rules need adjustments going forward. i think it is going to be a good
case to sort of see to what extent the overall scheme actually works. as far as the bank is concerned, i think that for us, for me, for my management team, for all the employees of monte dei paschi, this is clearly a turning point. that is not settled. there is -- now settled. ande is clarity transparency on what the bank is and will be going forward, what is the impact of the final disposal of 26.1 billion gross npl. draw the line and opine on the overall european schemes have worked. i think we need more time to see . ♪ david: let's revisit a few of
the weeks most interesting reviews, starting with the exclusive conversation with the chair of the british lobbying group the city u.k.. he is confident they will remain in the center of euro business after brexit. guest: the thing you have to remember is that london is the eu's financial center. it has actually been built not over decades, but over centuries. it is not easily replicated in one place, or even in a number of separate places. and if it was to be replicated in any tangible way, it would take an awful long time. you need an awful lot of buildings to replicate that. for example, if worst came to worst and we weren't allowed to do you are related activities in london, you would have to move a bank -- do euro related activities in london, you would
have to move a bank the size of barclays out. we don't think that is likely. the right thing for the eu and the u.k. is to retain a significant proportion of that in the u.k. therefore we are looking for a free-trade agreement, some neutral access to each other's markets. ensuringso looking for that. at the same time, if things have to move, we can't move things that size in two years. we will be looking for a period where we avoid a cliff edge effect. reporter: so do you think it is doable with that kind of timeframe? guest: if there is some kind of transition arrangement, it gives time to solve that problem. ♪ there's a negotiation underway right now.
+++ we are getting on with building our business. we have seen a large number of international companies comes to the market, especially in the last few weeks, companies from all over the world relying on our international investor access, the strong representation we have, and the capital. that continues as a fundamental strength of london and 11 stock exchange that the london stock exchange -- and the london stock exchange. >> 75% of the earnings are overseas, and people understand that better now given the development of the last year. more generally, we have always been a very international market. the biggest ipo in europe this year coming to london to raise 3 billion euros of capital following from bank of cyprus, also moving their primary listing to london. i think you are seeing a very strong franchise. reporter: are you are any of
your colleagues putting in contingency plans for euro clearing, getting that pretends proposals could potentially move some into the thatone? -- giving proposals could potentially move some into the eurozone? guest: we have a bigger pool of -- we don't think it would be in anyone's interest to seek to disrupt those efficiencies. ♪ anchor: in this environment global early -- environment globally starting to talk about normalization of policy, the fact that the central bank is in talking about it come what does that say about the strength of our economy and the position we are in mark -- in? i think our central bank
showed a lot of discipline, a lot of measure in the way they dealt with things on the way down, and has held their mark after many months. they have had a very optimistic view about where things are headed. recently our employment numbers have been very strong. we've had a six-year high in job the wagepence -- growth needs to follow the improvement in profits. we have had to reasonable quarters now -- we have had two reasonable quarters now. reporter: are these assumptions you made in the budget to optimistic? -- budget too optimistic? guest: i don't think so. they are saying similar things about the australian economy. we will review it again in
♪ ."vid: this is "bloomberg best the third quarter gets underway this week, and we asked an array of respected analysts and economists what they predict for markets in the second half of the year. >> liquidity has been critical. we entered the year hoping that policies and global reflation would take us higher on risk asset. policies have generally disappointed due to what is happening on the political side. the global reflation is not as strong as hoped for. is there, but not as strong. a badtely it has been
liquidity, and that has meant that not just stock investors have done really great, but even diversified investment having given too much up by being invested in bonds. liquidity continues to be the main driver of markets around the world. >> market drivers have changed, but the critical sustainability handoff has remained elusive. talk to me about what you mean by that is how critical it is. guest: liquidity can take you higher for a while, but you need continuous influx of liquidity. that is hard to achieve, especially at central banks that have been determinate of liquidity investments. what we need to make that sustainable is validation from economic and corporate fundamentals. look for how economic and corporate fundamentals are doing, and unless we get the policy response on progrowth measures, that is going to be how to change. focus on fundamentals.
ultimately that is what value -- what validates asset prices, not liquidity. reporter: what is driving the dollar in the second half? guest: i think there has been a clear indication building up that trump agenda is not going to be put in place anytime soon. that was one of the major reasons why the dollar rallied quite a bit after the elections last year. i think we have fallen. we have seen some comments on janet yellen and financial stability. she has been referencing the very expensive valuation the u.s. has. all this is negative for the dollar. reporter: even if we get any kind of policy passed comedies think that is going to have any kind of boost for the dollar later on in the second half? this interpretation of the market when mr. draghi
talked about inflation, my own interpretation is that it will become -- it will take some time. ♪ have a situation now where there is more upside risk then maybe downside, given the pessimism out there. guest: slowly we are moving their. probably not today or the next week, but we expect when july comes to the end, pessimism will be excessive. we have already now in terms of data and the situation of the market, a lot of pessimism. it can run a bit further in terms of timing. anchor: right after the election, all the talk was on monetary and fiscal policy, here in the u.s., and what that would mean for the economy. it appears that handoff is not happening, certainly not as quickly as we thought.
what other risks is that handoff never occurs? how much of what we are seeing with growth and reflation is simply liquidity from the central banks being ejected into the marketplace? guest: i wouldn't be so pessimistic, particularly on u.s. growth. we think the u.s. economy can accelerate in this momentum even without fiscal policy, even without --. of course this would be helpful. what happened in the last year is a weaker dollar. that is helpful for economic growth. it is also built up in private wealth. private consumption has been pretty weak in the past year. the preconditions for higher growth, there is some inherent momentum in the u.s. economy which is overlooked right now. ♪ >> central banks around the world, the fed wants to remove accommodation.
they want to normalize rates. we believe they want to do it for structural reasons must we believe it would do it no matter the data. >> some people believe they risk taking away stimulus that is actually helping to fuel the economy, fuel the stock market. just for fun, let's bring up another bloomberg chart that core --u the pc and cpi the pce and cpi core. both have made such a sharp move down. you said central banks will raise rates anyway. what are the risks? guest: that risk is that we did that policy event, and it becomes a market event. the risk of being that the market sees stock market rates moving too fast. we have had three rate hikes in the u.s. in the past seven months. not extremely fast by historical startrds once they hiking, but they are hiking in the face of not a lot of
inflation and this mixed economic data. we run the risk of a market event. we thought just a few weeks ago we were getting the yield firm flattening so much that we were moving towards an inversion, which would be really bad. last week that reversed. reporter: which would indicate a recession possibly. do you feel we are anywhere near that? guest: anchor: no -- guest: no, not at this point. ♪ what are your expectations around treasury yields coming into this year? a lot of people had hot -- had skyhigh expectations. guest: we have moved our expectations down a little bit, but it is still pretty high. year yield u.s. 10 move up somewhere into the 3% range over the next 12 months. we did have that higher than 3%. we pull that down a bit now. the fed will put up rates faster than market is currently expecting.
when you combine that with tightening, that will lead to an output pressure on government bond yields. reporter: where do you see the credit stock market going from your? i know you prefer credit to stop permit -- to government bonds. the idea is you have seen most of the spread tightening in credit already. most credit markets look pretty expensive. it is not to say we think there is going to be a selloff. we just don't be seem to be getting much more tightening in spreads there. our view is that you will probably just earned the yield at the moment, and that will be higher than what you get out of government bonds. that may allow you to offset some of those losses you will see as yields move up in government bonds. ♪ thehis year we have had dutch elections, the french elections, the u.k. election. there is one in germany in september.
to what extent could that election throw up a shock? guest: the german election is an interesting one. all these critical events, the consensus is that it is the one where we have the greatest certainty of the outcome, that merkel will be reelected. had thethe fact we greatest certainty of outcome, it is probably also the biggest risk. it was to lose its figurehead in the leadership role, it would be greater than all of the adverse outcomes we have had previously from brexit and the italian referendum. toorter: is it too early position to hedge ourselves against that risk? guest: by and large, the best way to navigate such political territory is just fred a portfolio through diversification globally and just tosset classes -- spread a portfolio through diversification globally and across asset classes. we generally see that implied
volatility is great for returns. the market normally is pretty good at pricing these risks. ♪ did you read much into this tech selloff, or was it just a list at the end of the first half? guest: i think it is maybe a shift in leadership. cap has had such a phenomenal run that violations -- tech has had such a phenomenal run that i valuations were high. reporter: it sounds like you see a rotation in leadership. where do the chips fall? guest: i think that ultimately the economy is going to move
forward. we see most of the data looking relatively good. given that, we expect to see some pick up in things like the consumer area, the health care area. these are areas that i think have very good balance sheets and growth stories. if at some point this momentum comes out of the text trade, you would -- the text trade, -- the tech trade, you would look at other things to redeploy some of that capital. ♪ reporter: when you look at the situation in north korea and the market is still just ok, you don't get that big risk mood, is that just a prudent response from investors? they look at that situation and don't really know how to price it in a serious way. is that complacency or a prudent
response from investors? guest: i don't know how you are supposed to trade in nuclear war. i'm not sure i would know how to do that. that is the case in the bull market. think about this cycle. i think this is the most interesting thing about this cycle. think of anything that could have happened the cycle short of an all-out global war come outside of the war on terror. think of everything that could have happened that didn't, and we still have not gone into an economic recession, not just globally, but in the u.s. i think that is the most important point. i hear people call for a bull market peak or recession, or it is different this time. it is not different. it is fed driven, credit driven. credit remains sound, and the fed remains accommodative, even rising rates.
♪ reporter: a plan b for brexit. >> there are just about 30,000 functions of the bloomberg. we always enjoy showing you our favorite on bloomberg television. maybe they will become your favorite. here is another you will find useful. o, or you can get important insight and quick takes into important topics. here is one for this week. >> americans own more guns than
anyone else on her. firearms are involved -- honors -- on earth. firearms are involved in the death of more than 33,000 people in the u.s. annually. it sparks arguments over gun ownership rights. in 2017, pro-gun advocates got a boost from republicans gaining control of the white house and both chambers of congress. in february, congressional republicans rolled back a rule adopted by president barack obama in 2016 that was aimed at preventing serious mental health problems from buying guns. >> joint resolution is passed. >> but that was just the most recent time congress has dealt with done restrictions. in 2013, congress defeated a bill to expand background checks. this was just months after a lace at sandy hook elementary school in newtown, connecticut come over 20 children were killed. in the u.s., 20 children die from bullet wounds each week.
gun rules are largely determined by states. since 2013, democratic states like california and oregon have expanded gun restrictions, though majority have weakened restrictions, and many now permit guns in more places like schools, restaurants, churches, and public buildings. also, all 50 states allow people to carry weapons that are concealed from public view. many states have expanded rights to use guns in self-defense. the u.s.'s original gun law is almost as old as the country itself. the second amendment right of have an their arms was established for malicious to protect themselves against the federal government. the u.s. supreme court ruled that it protected the gun rights of individuals, not just malicious. at least -- not just militias. here is the argument. the national rifle association and its allies argue that gun regulations only hurt law-abiding go niners because
the script -- law-abiding gun owners because criminals ignore them. fatal and nonfatal shootings have also declined. control advocates say limiting weapons will drive down gun related crimes, and the point to australia, where strict gun ownership laws were enacted after a historic massacre in 1996. since then there have been zero mass shootings. firearms related death rates have plummeted. while politicians try to tighten or loosen gun laws from one administration to the next, u.s. citizens continue to be caught in the middle of this legislative gunfight. ♪ david: that was just one of the many quick takes you can find on the bloomberg. you can also find them at bloomberg.com, along with all the latest business news and analysis, 24 hours a day.
♪ >> trump ails the g-20 is a major success as the u.s. is isolated on trade and climate change. the white house appearing to have forgotten which country has xi jingping as its leader. while australia is betting on infrastructure, looking at investment and toll roads to airports. wages once again fall flat.
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