tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg July 27, 2017 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT
>> amazon tumbling after delivering higher expenses and a disappointing forecast. that pushed jeff bezos off the top of the rich list. >> that's right. starbucks is also slumping amid sales expectations. the pressure is on to make it big in china. >> the senate approving sanctions on russia. the bill also prevents president trump from lifting them
unilaterally. >> more bad news for struggling noble. bankruptcy may be the only way -- forward. >> good morning. this is daybreak asia. i am betty liu in new york where it is just after 7:00 p.m. >> it is just after 7:00 a.m. in hong kong. i am yvonne man. misslk about mrs. today -- es today in earnings. south korea coming in negative at 3% drawdown or the month of june. the estimate was for quite a sizable uptick at 1.1%. also not looking great. we are seeing it down .2%. economists were expecting a 1.6% spread. we did talk about gdp yesterday, which did slow down from the spread we have seen in the first quarter. we will continue to watch how
this ways out in korea in just about an hour's time when they inct -- plays out in korea just about an hour's time when they react. tech has a lot to the downside. day loucheave had a of earnings. we are going to amazon in a moment. eluge of earnings. we are going to amazon and a moment. we will have retail sales as well as inflation giving more clues. the fed seems to be on hold with rates. what is the boj going to do? it looks as if the ecb and others are on a tightening trend. that is why you had, yvonne, that kind of volatility in the u.s. market session. we will go over that in a moment, but i know that is setting you up or some volatility in asia. volatilityally, some to end the week to make things more exciting. you mentioned the dollar
recovering. we did get news on durable goods and the gdp number on friday to look ahead to. let's take a look at how asia is performing so far. in new zealand, we are seeing shares down fractionally about 10 -- about .1%. the kiwi hovering just below 75 u.s. right now. in oil, the sentiment seems to be changing in st. petersburg. the saudi's and the uae have agreed to cut supplies and that has given a boost to the price, $49.40 a barrel right now. at 7972, coming back from touching 80 yesterday. japan, you mentioned the data death coming up. aso, politics to talk about well. the prime minister stepping down
, the latest casualty in prime minister shinzo abe's tumbling approval rate. futures down about 25 points. we are seeing about 50 point run down at the open. a lot of earnings coming through, -- drawdown at the open. a lot of earnings coming through. betty: that's right, earnings, the outlook on the economy, ego data, a lot to ingest for investors. toant to collect the board see how the u.s. markets closed. close mixed. we had a spike in volatility midday in the session. the dow managing to hang on, but the nasdaq really taking a hit with tech shares. just reminder, we are watching live what is going on in washington, the debate over the health care bill, the so-called open votes ginny bill," to repeal the affordable care act. bill," toed "skinny
repeal the affordable care act. that vote will go late into the night, well beyond when we are on. get to courtney collins. a late night for senators. courtney: yes, it will be. the u.s. senate has bashed a measure -- passed a measure that would prevent president trump from removing sanctions on russia. it now goes to the president for his signature, but the white house has been giving mixed messages about whether that will happen. republican leaders have abandoned their proposed border tax, sending victory to retail groups that had opposed it. house speaker paul ryan and other senior figures had spent more than a year promoting the measure, but now it will be dropped in the interest of advancing general u.s. tax reform. it is not clear how the tax cut will find new sources of revenue.
for an has flagged noble elevated risk of default. it says it expects a quarterly loss of 1.8 billion dollars and announced more asset sales. investors are now looking at a bond coupon do saturday in a possible bankruptcy -- and a possible bankruptcy filing later. the mostmall caps grow in nearly 14 months as investors search for bargains in one of the worst-performing corners of the global equity market. heavy chinese gauge with wondersan 3% information among stocks surging by the 10% daily limit. the index has fallen more than 11% this year. global news 24 hour a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am courtney collins. this is bloomberg. yvonne: thank you, courtney.
stocks, as we mentioned, dropping in thursday's trade. every major index but the dow finishing lower. today in the markets? su keenan with more. we did have strong earnings reports. the s&p initially was up. end, it was lower. we did see the dow extend gains, but the nasdaq 100 sell the most. let's look at the earnings. rising to a record. verizon up the most in eight years. shares that missed got vanished. twitter -- actually, their earnings were ok, but the subscriber growth had investors concerned. ,f we go into the bloomberg volatility is part of the story here, and this is a chart for volatility across all assets.
you have the jpmorgan global volatility index in-flight and this blue, which really peaked in may and early july is the fix. it is starting to peak at -- is the vix. it is starting to peak as we get to the end of july. that is something we are noting because the calm is starting to get rattled. that: indeed, and part of calm being rattled is a flood of earnings. , baidu all hads earnings and volatility. let's start with intel. ok, we will come back to oil in a minute and go to intel because it was up 3% right out of the blocks. that was a surprising trend. they boosted their outlook and beat the highest analyst estimates. 14.8 beat the
estimate of 14.4. that's going to set up for a strong trade on friday. baidu shares also rose, revenue beating forecast, particularly the adjusted profit per ad. that came in at 246 versus a 150 estimate. up as much as 6% in trading through quarter forecasts, exceeding estimates. starbucks a very different story. tepid results, and that puts greater pressure on the deal they have made with china, offer ono china to sales. they are missing sales projections. they are closing stores. tea venture didn't work. they are cutting more than 3000 jobs. the chinese deal is the largest
in the history of starbucks. they are trying to take over control of 1300 cafes in china that they hope will make the difference going forward. on chinaoubling down for sure, starbucks. meanwhile, we just talked about oil. wti within striking distance of $50 a barrel. with the oil companies cutting their drilling budget, what behind that move? companies could need oral to get above $50, and it's not there yet. andeed oil to get above $50 it's not there yet. it hasn't been above $50 since may. while oil is moving higher on two things, yes, the opec cart is starting to take effect, but there is a huge drop in u.s. inventory since the beginning of the year, since january. that also is pegging prices higher. theset's look at companies, the drillers in
particular, conoco phillips. they have slashed spending in recent days, cutting their drilling budget as they make plans to cope with oil below $50. this has to do with the fact that investors are being very strict. they want you to's and within your cash -- to spend within your cash flow, no exceptions allowed, and cutting the budget is a response to this. you so much. let's dive into these amazon earnings, lower after hours on a disappointing earnings report that included projections of a potential loss in the third quarter. joining us now from's and cash from sanope francisco is a senior bloomberg analyst. is aom san francisco senior bloomberg analyst. a lot of disappointment for investors today. >> it really is. earnings,k at the topline growth was rocksolid for
aws, 40% plus. the guidance was around consensus for the third quarter. the cost of chasing revenue spending is increasing spending aggressively. they are getting very high demand for content and infrastructure. with interesting about this result is they are setting a trajectory of accelerated spending over the next couple of quarters. we think revenue growth should continue to be strong in the second half and spending should mute the earnings profitability. so, we could expect further drawdowns in profitability, but they are spending so much in terms of investment. is it showing there are cracks when it comes to e-commerce as well as cloud dominance? >> no, if you look at the topline growth, it is not suggesting any crack in either e-commerce or cloud. the cloud margins this quarter
were attributed to spending more and things like that. these guys are really going after revenue growth. spending is needed because if you don't expand, you can't drive the revenue. it's a catch-22 situation where we are seeing results of these investments, but as a result, they have to see more. -- then more. -- spend more. grew over 20% in the quarter. tell me about core retail sales. we are just about to interview ups's ceo. if amazon is doing well in the retail front, they are shipping more. that has to be good for ups. >> revenue growth accelerated this quarter. same thing with the guidance we saw in the third quarter which came in about consensus.
what is missing its profit. international margins continue to shrink. it's going to be a lossmaking business for a couple of quarters. story on the topline continues, but the profit margins will be coming down. certainly watching those margins. thank you for joining us. amazon shares, as you can see, despite the growth numbers and margin expansion are down about 3% in aftermarket trades. yvonne, that is shaving off the money for jeff bezos, but i don't think he's crying right now, right? he is near the top. earlier, the rise in amazon shares, he owns about 17%, made him very briefly the world's richest man, beating bill gates, warren buffett, those guys. they are yesteryear.
he is current. he is back down to number two, but clearly, having someone like jeff these is in the top three, talk to, or number one, is a two, ort these -- top number one, is a sign that these tech ceos are rising. it was only a matter of time before jeff bezos came out on top. close: you can see how this race is to the top as the world's richest human. we are only, what? $1.4 billion away? he enjoyed a couple hours of being number one. this will be a neck and neck race moving forward. the long-term bullish story for amazon is of course both retail sales we mentioned. plenty more ahead. you've yesterday, we mentioned, gaining -- ups, we mentioned, it gaining. we will talk to the ceo about how they are coping with the retail sector.
betty: this is "daybreak asia." i am betty liu in new york. in hongi am yvonne man kong. data coming from across the world. so, europe will highlight their second-quarter gdp numbers from a in and france. later on today, the u.s. will release its growth figures for the second quarter. let's get the latest now with a serious -- with betty. think of aomists pickup in consumer spending may have doubled. what would that mean for the fed's policy path?
kathleen hays is here with more. give us the rundown. what are we expecting from gdp numbers? >> we are asked acting a better number -- expecting a are better number in the second quarter than the first quarter, mainly because the consumer came roaring back after a very weak first-quarter. the forecast is for 2.9% growth. consumer spending, versus one point 1% in the first quarter. i want to show you a chart that shows he contributions being made by each component of gdp. the contributions being made by each component of gdp. consumer spending was maybe half of that one point 4%. in the orange far, you can see 1.4%. that --
in that orange bar, you can see the rise in consumer spending fullc interpreting two percentage points. inventoriesdrop in subtracted from first quarter gdp. with a rise in inventory, you're getting a healthy gain in gdp. there are some temporary forces .hat boost the gdp it lower energy prices. you didn't have to pay so much for your heating bill, to fill your car with gas. again, you saw the volatility in inventories. they were down, up, could be down again, so you can't really count on that. let's remember that donald for gdp rate is 3.4%. he's a long way from that. the federal reserve thinks gdp is 1.8%. is well above what the fed
continues the potential. but if you average the quarters together, you get under 2%. if the third quarter is not as strong, you do not feel encouraged to move forward with an interest rate hike by the end of the year. this is not make or break. i think it may be has more to do with the optimism in the stock market. but don'te to have, get too excited. kathleen: there you go. yvonne: joining us now today deeper into this is gina martin adams. think the markets will react if we get something to the upside? >> i think the market is going to discern why the acceleration comes. if it is inventory based, the market will probably largely ignore it. a big acceleration or consumption growth can be very
meaningful for the s&p. eriodyou look over long p ofs time, only a handful of indicators matter. betty: why is that? >> there are four things that matter, unemployment, commodity rate -- the rest of the numbers are less important. change over time. frankly, if we can get some recovery in business investment at this date of the cycle, the market could respond very positively. betty: if we look at stock as a shareholder assessment of the economy and where things are going, and if we look at consumer in particular, what are retail stocks telling us? to get really difficult
a read of the market at the consumer level right now, and that is because internet retail is taking over the consumer space. you can count a couple of things out of the consumer data. starbucks data was ready negative. earnings not as strong -- pretty negative. earnings not as strong as expected. amazon was decent. in general, consumer stocks are underperforming. are telling you a story of a weak consumer. i think that's because of where we are in the cycle and because internet is taking over the whole consumer space and creating a structural russi transition in that space. yvonne: does that affect topline growth as well? presumably, for the market, is already baked in. what we want to see is
forward-looking change to expectations or data. that's difficult to get out of gdp. the market trades well in advance of a second-quarter gdp report. what we are looking for more is risk. if, for instance, you find that in nation accelerated more than anticipated -- inflation accelerated more than anticipated, that could be impactful. may be people are investing more or the inventory bill tells us something about future growth. maybe that mean something for the market. but the headline number is less meaningful, frankly are. soty: all right, thank you much for giving us a preview of the gdp numbers tomorrow. you can get a roundup of that story and many more you need to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. it's on your terminal and available on mobile on the bloomberg anywhere app.
yvonne: a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. quarterly profits we are talking o --ngc,e for oh ngc it miss estimates, falling to its lowest in a year. prices were offset by cheaper gas and a lower relief. --upee -- rupee. betty: some of the world's biggest oil companies have reported earnings. shell generated almost as much cash in the second order as it did when oil was above $100.
conoco phillips posted second-quarter earnings that beat estimates. we are going to talk more about these days families want to be connected 24/7. that's why at comcast we're continuing to make our services more reliable than ever. like technology that can update itself. an advanced fiber-network infrustructure. new, more reliable equipment for your home. and a new culture built around customer service. it all adds up to our most reliable network ever. one that keeps you connected to what matters most. ♪
betty: we are counting down to the major market opens in asia. in japan we are watching the economic numbers, ahead of the open. you can see nikkei futures showing a slightly lower open. we start off with the jobless rates, the job numbers, 2.8%, is where we see japan's jobless rates for the month of june. that is below what economists had estimated at 3%. and come away below what we saw in the prior month. overall household spending coming in. good news am a coming in at
2.3%, quite robust. the expectation for household spending to rise by 0.5%. cpi, inflation numbers up 0.4%. that matches what economists had estimated. it is flat. no change what we saw in the prior months. that excludes food and energy prices remaining under -- unchanged. we see that robust consumer spending ticking up. the labor market is very tight. we are not seeing that wage growth. and none of the inflation, that is so key for the boj. yvonne: it was holding steady at 0.4%. they were expecting it to draw down lower because of the oil price we have seen in the past month. let's see how the yen is trading.
we are seeing it strengthen on the positivity in this news. the labor market continuing to tighten. the overall household spending is quite a surprise, up 2.3%. out 15 a straight months warehouse old spending has been in negative territory. we did not see the growth from a year before. could see a positive -- could be a positive sign. wage growth is tepid at best. betty: that is leading to the retail sales numbers, which we will get in a bit. that will affirm the view of the consumer in japan. yvonne: let's move on. how do these earnings play into the earnings results? the prime minister's popularity under increased rusher. let's get to adam haigh for more on this. what is your take on the numbers so far? adam: just looking at those headline numbers, it will take a
little bit of that pressure off prime minister shinzo abe. his poll ratings are under a lot of pressure. we have been reading reports this morning that his defense today.r may be resigning she would be the latest casualty in a series of how he is having to adapt to these poll ratings. these numbers ease that pressure a bit. elsewhere in japan today, there are a lot of earnings to get to. we are expecting -- in the market itself. when the market closes friday afternoon, we have big heavyweights coming up, , and yahooomura japan, reporting after the markets. there is a lot for japanese investors to get to. the dollar-yen and a reasonably tight range.
it will be interesting to see how that plays out. we have seen a, huge rally in the small-cap stocks. they have been the worst performers this year. what is going on with this turnaround? getting a little relief in the china index, the key gauge of small-cap, mainland chinese shares. yesterday we had a decent rally. the main thing apparent here that investors are telling us now, is that the valuation discounts, relative to bigger and of the pound found in the shanghai composite, people are buying these after the significant sell down we have seen. a lot of the worries and reasons why these stocks have been selling off in recent weeks has been because of a perceived increase of scrutiny from regulators.
that closed door with the president a couple weeks ago was a key moment. when he used a lot stronger people made the assumption these fledgling companies find it harder to get financing, relative to state enterprises. they were already under pressure from earnings that were struggling. it is a nice rally here and largely driven by the valuation having gotten a distant -- decent discount. betty: thank you so much. let's get the first word news with courtney collins. amazon has tumbled in extended trading after reporting a big jump in quarterly cost and offering a disappointing profit outlook. expenses rose 20% to more than $37 billion, while net income went to $.40 a share. they were expecting $1.42 a share.
this happened as amazon enters the grocery business with its $13 billion purchase of whole foods. has made aazing run jeff bezos the richest person in the world. shares of surged in new york, giving him a paper net worth of $93.2 billion, just ahead of bill gates. to second.ezos back he owns most of the count -- company he founded. sources are telling bloomberg that uber's ceo shortlist includes jeff immelt. there are six names on the list. hewlett-packard enterprise ceo, meg whitman, is one of them. hpe said meg whitman will be staying put. they will name -- they will name travis kalanick's successor by
september. the japanese defense minister set to quit over and a luggage -- an alleged cover-up in south sudan. she will offer her resignation later friday. the defense ministry said it had no information. whenad little experience she was hired last year. a string of scandals did not help area global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am courtney collins. this is bloomberg. betty: starbucks is going to spend $1.3 billion to buy out its venture partners in china. that will be the company's biggest deal ever, and part of a bet on the mainland to drive sales. our restaurant analyst is joining us now from princeton. tell us what the thinking strategy highness move is, jennifer.
jennifer: the strategy is to harness and control long-term growth for starbucks. as the united states slowly starts to mature, they have their eyes on china where they will double down and invest in long-term prospects. that is what you see behind the field today. betty: you have a lot of companies, everyone from mcdonald's to dunkin' donuts, yum brands, all of them see china as so big for them and so key. tell us how that will position the china business. what are they expecting out of it over the next five years? jennifer: their aim is to hit 5000 locations by 2021, which is an enormous amount of growth. they're using china as part of a technology incubator for the company, where they can learn lessons and bring them back to their locations around the world.
great examples are a third-party agreement with tencent for social gifting. things they are learning in terms of delivery, those are things that are important to growth in china, but can also benefit starbucks around the world. yvonne: it is interesting how they are shutting down these teavana stores, accepting defeat in terms of the tea market. when it comes to china, how are they doing this transition to get chinese drinkers to transition away from tea to coffee? what can we look for on that front? we cannotwith teavana overlook the fact that they had $1.6 billion in tea sales. tea business is still growing for starbucks. in china, they have embraced the sense of culture and educational -- education. there are helping people develop
coffee. i have been to stores in china. you have pamphlets on what coffee is about and how it is brewed. the educational process resonate strongly with the chinese consumer. yvonne: great to get your expected on all this, joining us with those starbucks earnings. we have pressure on ups. and vanishing brick-and-mortar stores. we hear from the cfo on overcoming those challenges. this is bloomberg. ♪
marketing and other expenses rose by 450 million in the april through june period. there was a 13% decline in operating profits. nissan has offered the slump at the cost of a $4000 incentive per vehicle. >> sales not only slowed in the u.s., but costs increased because of strong competition. however, we are seeing recovery in sales in china and europe, thanks to new models. we hope profit will recover. has reported profits that beat analyst estimates, 845 million singapore dollars. that is about $622 million u.s. they did better than the same period last year. bank income was a touch over $1 billion a year. aia says the value of new
business rose by a better than expected 39% in the first half, led by growth in china and hong kong. future profitability surged to $1.75 billion in the six months from may 31. those were the last results from the previous cfo. yvonne: singapore airlines returned after a surprise loss in the previous quarter, held by a surge in passenger numbers and a recovery. they posted an operating profit in three months through june, delivering net income of 173 million u.s. dollars. there was an unsafe -- unexpected loss in march, its first in three years. on the bloomberg is our interactive function, tv . we will have more on that as we talk about more earnings.
-- earnings with ups, coming up. here is the tv function on the right side of your screen. you can look into interviews we have done throughout the morning. over 4%f ups tumbled despite posting better-than-expected second-quarter earnings. they are facing a new headwinds from the online shopping boom. up shopores -- shutting means less demand for package deliveries. cfo, who joins us live from atlanta. richard, thank you for joining us. i know it is a late evening for you in atlanta. give us a sense of what it happened in the quarter for you. you have high volumes, it looks like a decent order. but also, fewer stores. richard: the thing that is important to remember is, throughout the united states the thereour or five months,
have been announcements of store closings. we have had substitute volume, not necessarily less volume. in the united states, our volume of the most 5% growth, which is healthy for ups. there were more packages going to homes because of online shopping and less packages going to the stores, which historically would have had more of the volume going there. happeningat has been over the past few years, we see more and keep -- more people buying more and more things. a few years ago what people were buying was books. today, they are buying tv, furniture, appliances. it plays into the volume and opportunity to continue to create profits and grow the business. been working at ups to make e-commerce more deliverable and profitable. it seems you're making progress in this quarter. but before in the past, you have been struggling to capitalize on
this booming e-commerce front. tell us what clicked in this quarter. richard: it is a journey. if you look at what ups has been doing the past few years, this quarter it all came together. we have continued to invest in buildings, to get the network when we technology, have implemented is orion, helps us run our delivery routes efficiently. we on the customer side, have a nap people can use called mychoice. 37 million people communicate with ups about their packages coming to them. what is interesting about that, a few years ago we did not communicate with the user. our customer was the company's shipping the packages. bity: talk to me a little
-- i know the foreclosures -- store closures have a negative impact on your numbers. i am curious because it comes at a time when we hear amazon are seeing their retail sales growth booming, rising over 23% in the quarter. is it a one-to-one correlation now? amazon shipping and selling more, it has to be a boon for your business. richard: i think the whole online industry itself -- even if you take the traditional, physical retailers, many built big businesses online. anytime there is more online, it continues to open up the market and create a larger market. as you buy more commodities, more things go into the network. on one hand, the physical stores -- the numbers have been rationalized. retail sales are still up. it is just coming in a different
way. we are prepared for that through the different investments we are making. we have over 7.5 million square feet of expansion warehouses and sort outre we packages, under construction today. betty: it feels weird to even say this right now, it is still so hot out, but that holiday season is around the corner. i know it is peak season for you. every year you are hiring more and more people. what you expect the season to be like, what are you preparing for, and how do you even it out so people are not so focused on the fourth quarter, and more even throughout the year? richard: if you look at the distribution of our income, there is income for all four quarters. we are a business that runs the entire year. in the u.s., we have 6% of gdp
on a daily basis. we do think our business is a year-round business. but we do have to prepare for the spikes. there are not a lot of businesses that can spike to a 100% increase from a four to six week period. we are helping customers understand -- if you look across the month, there are days it is lighter. if there is a way to move volume by customer expectation, that would also help in the delivery, because the capacity of the entire industry is a challenge during that time of year. how you do that is by starting to work with your customers early, making the adjustments, understanding you will continue to look at what changes -- about 2017, if you look at the workdays from thanksgiving to christmas, it is the most possible days of the calendar. if you go back a few years you would have had three or four less work days.
this year, christmas runs on a monday. and thanksgiving is not the last week of november, but the second to last week. it creates more work days, which means a holiday is spread a longer. yvonne: i have to break data from japan real quick, retail sales for the month of june. it looks like it did miss estimates, 0.2% growth month on month for retail sales. they were expecting a rise. we are seeing a bounceback from the previous month of 1.5%. the retail trade numbers year on year rising 2.1%, also falling short of estimates. it is perfect to talk about asia and what you are seeing in the international front for ups. you mentioned double-digit growth in the first quarter. has that been sustained? richard: when we look at the international profit, for example, we had 10 quarters in a row of double-digit profit
growth, when you adjust for currency. you look at export volume, we had 12% growth index for volume, led by europe, but very strong growth out of asia. when you look at what is europeng inside asia, in or the u.s., it is moving within asia. we continue to have a great model that is continuing to open opportunities for many different companies. you may have heard we announced a jv with a company out of china. ort is about small medium-sized customers in china by want to sell to the u.s. or europe. at the same time, we participated with alibaba in detroit last month. ist efforts and alliance about moving small or medium-sized customers in the u.s. and giving them an ability to sell into china. alliancesefforts and are a great, complementry
activity to balance trade and give small and medium-sized businesses in both continents the opportunity to participate in the global economy. yvonne: richard, stay with us. we will have plenty more after the break, when i talk about and thent venture, outlooks given the trade tensions we have seen with the u.s., of late. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ we are backrnings, with our guest, ups chief financial officer, richard peretz. a moment ago you were talking about this partnership you have in china with sf express and the potential of the chinese market. alibaba looks at the american market and says, there is a huge opportunity. i know last month, they held a gateway conference in detroit.
it was interesting when they create oneba can million jobs, u.s. jobs, in the next five years. he said, i think he can. what did you make of that? richard: obviously, we were encouraged by that. when we look at jobs it ups -- every 22 packages -- not only are the manufacturers and the small and medium-sized illnesses that are grading the transactions grading jobs in the local communities around the country, whether it be in china or the u.s., but also here at ups, we are grading jobs. as we have more international packages, those have more direct labor involved. we want to make sure those get across the ocean correctly and
are monitored appropriately. we are creating jobs at the same time. when we have a free trade agreement signed, what we see in countries that signed a free trade agreement is a 26% increase in volume. we are encouraged when we hear about updating or modernizing trade agreements. we saw thet month u.s. and china come through these trade talks, with not much breakthrough. relations havek been more frothy now. have you seen a difference in the last six months since president trump took office -- has escalated? i think what is happening, the administration is looking to make sure we have fair trade agreements, that we can in courage commercial activity. if you think a lot -- about trade agreements today, they
♪ yvonne: amazon tumbled up to delivering higher expenses and a disappointing forecast. that pushes jeff bezos at the top of the rich list. the pressure is on to make it big in china. nissan feeling the heat with profit hits by higher incentive spending in the u.s., now running up $400 per car. and more flat landing in japan.
retail sales missed estimates last month. the boj says it will take longer than thought to reach inflation. this is the second hour of "daybreak: asia." i'm yvonne man in hong kong. after 8:00s just p.m. in new york. i'm betty liu. we are watching all these economic numbers that have come out. inflation not really budging. there inentially flat japan, but we did see retail sales miss on the other end, household spending a nice tidy beat there. a mixed picture, as we have seen with economic numbers out of japan. yvonne: it is interesting to see what led to that spit -- search in spending. --surge in spending. try to push the inflation target beyond 2019 to reach that 2%. we are seeing it stalled for the
month of june. in all review the numbers been it. let's get to the first word news. have the we did weakness coming through from the nasdaq in the s&p 500, but we have the dow holding at a ride -- record high. let's see how that plays into equity markets here in asia. it not very positively. almost all markets opening lower. have australia's market coming under pressure in the early session, and the south orea's kospi coming off hide. stronger yen is weighing into the nikkei picture. it is up by 0.2%. it could be that we have a little bit of range bound training for the final trading day of the week, because remember, we have the msci asia index holding on to the levels
we have not seen since december 2007. look at the stocks we want to watch in the session today, because there are a few japanese companies coming through with earnings up. one company missed analysts estimates. it is up by 0.6%. nissan just coming online, down by about 3.3%, its first-quarter operating project meets the estimates. we were hoping to see a little bit of upside from the australian energy producers with oil surging above $49 a barrel. the market is a bit in better shape, but not much more. much. thank you so ye on theeep heour e stock he up with get to the first word news. after reporting a big
jump in forecasts and altering supporting profit outlook, expenses rose 28% to more than $37 billion while net income declined to $179 million, or $.40 a share. analysts expected more than that. enters the grocery business with its $13.7 billion purchase of whole foods. china's hna group is facing more questions from banks, working on its billion-dollar takeover. -- theretics operator is a questions about hna's leverage ratios. there are risks in the financial system and other serial view makers. the struggling commodity trade, with moody slagging in default.
they expected quarterly loss of $1.8 billion. more thanclosed down 30% in singapore. investors are looking into a possible bank filing later. fileshink that noble i don'tfile in the next two weeks or the takes longer than that. reporter: the end is night for one of the defining products of the apple era. the ipod is heading for the exit after years. it is illuminating the cheaper models, hinting at the lines of eventual demise. they were renovated with new colors in 2015, but the nano has not had a full upgrade since 2012, and the shuffle
since 2010. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm haslinda amin. this is bloomberg. yvonne: a flood of economic reports just out of japan earlier, showing the economy is picking up team. that inflation is holding steady in front of the weaker oil and service prices. retail prices coming in missing estimates. what does this mean for the bank of japan? kathleen hays joining us with more. a small improvement in inflation. we expected the core number to be in decline, but nothing to be concerned about. bloomberg intelligence will looking for the decline, and we saw a little improvement in the core. ifould say that on balance, i was at the bank of japan, i would say this is a good batch of numbers overall. up a chart that will
make it easy to tell the story for inflation. will start by looking at the white line, that is the overall cpi at 0.4%. let's start with the yellow line, that is overall. the yellow -- the white line has been coming up, that is the national number. this is the bank of japan's main number. 0.14%.s at then, the super core, which takes on fresh fruit and energy prices, tipped down to 0.1%. back to flats. there is a little improvement there. the labor market, let's take a look at that. to 2.8 percent from 3.1% in may. the job application ratio fell.
4596. this is the unemployment rate. it was supposed to go down to about 2.9%, it went down to 2.8%. ratio, to application was supposed to go to 1.51%. it is an improvement. the question is wages. there is not much oomph in wages. despite that chart you are looking at, there is more jobs than applicants to fill them, and unemployment is falling, tight labor markets about much movement in wages. that jobs applicant ratio is the tightest we have seen since the 1970's, i think. good news on the consumer spending front. we broke out of the 15 month downtrend. kathleen: if i am at the boj, i am saying -- the bank of japan
is having a hard time getting inflation to move higher. of all the major central banks, having this problem. the ecb and the federal reserve. but they are seeing a real impact, at least whether they say it is our policies or not, something is getting better. which is thending, overall number, it is on goods and services -- i didn't want to pull the chart up yet, but why not? what it shows you is the game we got. versused 2.3% in june, in may.% this is the first time you have seen a year-over-year name. -- gain. that is a nice improvement. what this chart tells you is, you see sweet spot before, but is there any reason to believe that continues? we don't know yet.
june sales, which is a narrower part of this was up 0.2%, down on1.5% in may. supermarket sales are a more narrow purported of this, they rose 0.2%. for at least a month, it is looking better. if you want more of those green bars, if you pull are seeking more jobs, if wages start rising, if they feel more confidence, maybe they will get more inflation. yvonne: kathleen, thank you. we will have more in a moment. 2% inflation will take longer than thought. some say the economy is finally on the mend. betty: and later, bitcoins barriers to survival. why optimism could be overrated. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
yvonne: good morning, this is "daybreak: asia." let's do a quick check of the business headlines. there was a surprise loss in the previous quarter, held by a surge of passenger numbers and a recovery in cargo. in june,ed a profit delivering overall net income of $173 million. they had expected a loss. shares tumbled after revenue from its operating business will decline further. prophet was well above estimates, but revenue is $7.7 billion, which is down percent -- -- which is down. it comes down to whether it
will reduce costs and future and we will continue to modernize the bank. keep of the investment, because we need to move on with the modernization program. a bit of a mixed picture, but we have focused on cost. now we need to focus on revenue. first-order profits fell after a small in fixed income. to $175 million, although revenue jumps from a year earlier to $1.4 billion. they asked -- they plan to expand their business after buying baltimore-based company. issignal hill's expertise what we were after the most. we will consider more m&a opportunities after we see synergy from this deal. as we saw in japan, court
percent prices rose 0.4 in june, at change from last month. despite rising energy costs, inflation remains far from reaching the 2% target. joining us from tokyo is the head of japan economics at bank lynch.ica-merrill does this change the story at all for you on japan? no, these numbers do not change our view that despite the market tightening and upward the tick up in inflation will be muted in the long-term. betty: so what does this mean? it seems that every time we get these numbers, there is chatter about what the boj might do. are they on hold for the time being? no choice butve to be on hold for the perceivable future.
-- the foreseeable future. i think the challenge they face is that inflation expectations remain very, very weak. if you look at private service prices, which should be the most sensitive to the take up, -- there is. i think it is going to take a lot more time for this kind of pricing behavior to slowly change. betty: how long is that really going to take? this is not the only conundrum that japan is facing, this tepid inflation. can you blame it on external -- all the the talks talks on how the phillips curve is broken? izumi: to be fair, the bank of japan faces a unique challenge in the sense that there is a good chunk of japan -- it is very sticky.
20% is rents, which does not respond to the business cycle, and then you have the public service prices which are hard to lift in a democracy. in that sense, it is hard to engineer 2% inflation on the back of private service inflation alone. then, there are glaring weaknesses in things like the price of eating out and maintenance repair fees. we have to see more progress on that end, and we just are not seeing that right now. yvonne: talk to me about politics in japan right now. we have seen a bit of fallout, ever since seeing these tumbling approval report -- approval ratings were shinzo abe. we learned that the defense minister is set to quit. the really isn't much of an alternative to anyone replacing point, butat this
does it affect markets of the economy? it has not really impact of the markets quite yet, but i think in my conversations with investors, it has become a bigger concern over the past couple of weeks. i think what we can say here is passed -- over the last four years, politics was a nonfactor. you could ignore it and focus on the macro alone. to changes starting with the drop in cabinet approval ratings. on the case that he survives this, it is a good challenge, but we are looking toward a scheduled cabinet reshuffle to see if he can put a floor to these falling approval ratings. betty: since we did get those housing numbers, perhaps one of the writer numbers of the data, it makes me wonder about the sales packet increase? will they have to delay this until 2019?
approval rating, in mena be the popular choice of the moment. izumi: we don't think the consumption is at this point. i think pushing it further would be the right choice to ensure that we do not have a return to a deflationary environment. you mention overall household spending number, but that is a volatile number. in june, it was pushed up by a massive increase in housing repair fees. if you look at core household spending, it is picking up, and so are other indicators. i don't think consumption moment is strong enough. they: was going to bring up surprising household spending numbers. what would help keep the momentum up and not be a transitory situation is you are describing it? i think as a matter of
macro policy, i think fiscal policy has to be at the very least neutral to ensure that private demand has the space to recover. second, we would hope for continuation in wage growth and improved consumer confidence so that consumers deal that this pick up in a improvement in the wage fixture is not transitory, but here to stay. devalier, the head of economics for bank of america-merrill lynch. sales willis betting pick up speed in the u.s.. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
of earnings around the globe. checking on nissan in tokyo. there are down 4.2% this morning after first quarter profit was hit i higher spending on incentives in the u.s.. one ofest, here we have our analysts. it is hitting the carmakers hard in asia. continuethink we will to see that for the remainder of the year. u.s. sales have dipped quite a the 2014-2015 level. know, gm this week reported earnings as well, and they are cautious about the second half. yvonne: and you see any kind of relief at all this year? steve: i do not, i see incentives increasing. thatentioned later
incentives will likely increase because inventories are relatively high, and at the same usually in north america, september is usually the model change. they will have to clear some of that inventory before they bring in the new product. we will see an increase in incentives for the remainder of the year. betty: these incentives, they are a double-edged sword. they're helping increase the sales, but it is hard to wean consumers off that. do you expect that to become deeper and wider? expect to see it become deeper. but you are right, there is a risk. one of the ways they incentivize consumers back into the showroom is by attractive leasing programs that the industry in north america have been facing. that will impact the balance sheets for the auto industry, and nissan as well.
that is something to keep track of for the remainder of the year. yvonne: is hyundai any different? steve: hyundai is a little bit of a different story. ae impact for hyundai is negative impact mostly in asia and china. china is one of the biggest on top ofr them, north america. north america has been doing ok, but in china, they have also the last fewn months since march, after they missiles u.s. made next to north korea. yvonne: there is that factor there as well. out of all the asia auto -- automakers you have seen, what is the least vulnerable to the headwinds we do see in the u.s. market? markers --asian auto
automakers, i think we are going to hear pretty much the same they for them, because have huge exposure in the united states. in china, they are probably going to do a little bit better because they are taking some market share from the south korean brands. if ones that are globally, you look at the global auto market, the ones that will the wholeare better, industry is in a downturn globally, especially the u.s. and china, the biggest markets. i think the chinese automakers, came on here earlier this week to talk about a few, and those automakers will fare better than the global peers. it also have volkswagen -- yvonne: plenty going on there as well. steve: there is a lot of volatility in the market, especially in the second half.
yvonne: maybe china can come through here. let's get a wrapup and look ahead at some of these automaker earnings. lost to digest. the second quarter profit be analysts estimates. analysts estimates. wasbanks is net interest over $1 billion u.s. and has declared interim dividends up. also, the value of the new business rose about 39% in the first half with growth in china and hong kong. to $1.75lity surged billion. these are the last results under mark zucker, who pass the chief executive officer baton to someone else on june 1.
♪ yvonne: it is 8:30 in singapore. looks to be a scorching hot day. we are i half hour away from the open. betty: you're watching "daybreak: asia." let's get to the first word news with haslinda amin. haslinda: japan's key inflation gauge was unchanged from june consumer prices. however, unemployment fell to 2.8% and household spending rose -- to bringain they percent, its first gain in
more than a year. inflation remains far below the boj's 2% target. $653 million, more than analysts expected. baidu bounced back from government regulations that squeezed it. it was good timing, with baidu investing heavily in the suburban cars. the five decade global war with libor is heading for retirement. it will phase out by 2022, saying there is not enough meaningful data to sustain it. libor has been linked to some a banking's biggest scandals, resulting in $9 billion in fines. the assumption that we have a market and money that will
support libor has not happen. the structure depends on our expert judgment. they do well. scandal,ot another this is about long-term sustainability of the structure. haslinda: rolls-royce is raising ae by in luxury, announcing new car. it is the latest in the line of machines used. it is the second version of the roles flagship that was produced and only truly modernized in 2003. it comes with a price tag of $440,000 u.s. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm haslinda amin. this is bloomberg. it is time to see how the
asian markets are doing this morning. but get to the latest with juliette saly. juliette: it is take your privates on a friday day. we are seeing the markets come af -- take your profits on friday day. we are seeing the markets come off, and weakness coming through with the s&p. a bit of a stall in this rally. kospi is leading the decline. we had a solid rally yesterday. 1%.kospi down australia's market being her today despite the rebound we have seen in the energy story. weakness in new zealand, and you have the yen playing into things in japan. earnings coming
through, including nissan. the nikkei off by 0.4%. the yen holding strong, up by 0.2%. pushing through that 111 point level. seeing that momentum come through from asian currencies. just in terms of commodities, this is an interesting chart to fine on the bloomberg. bit,ve seen gold swing a touching a six week high. the dollar getting a bit of momentum. not so much into the safe haven place. this triangle shows you the range gold has made in the last couple of years. mitsubishid -- -- it couldists rally towards 450 u.s. dollars.
it is interesting when you look at that golden triangle. weing a quick look at oil, are at about $49 a barrel, holding strong. the next question is, will it get to $50? we will ask our next guest. betty: we are just a hair away from the $50 level. sayse meantime, moody's there is an elevated risk of default after the company is warning that quarterly losses could drop $1.8 billion. we asked whether noble is finally coming clean. fair,bably not, but to be i have not tried to model out the cash flow or do liquidity analysis on this company. what i have said previously was look att a more silver
offtake agreements and contracts they have would yield the book value that was below zero. that, butting toward i don't know they will ever get it to that level. it may not be relevance, because at the end of the day, liquidity is going to determine whether and for how long this company survives. reporter: it is interesting you point that out. there is $1.5 billion in debt coming over the next few years. systemic? this as you have looked at noble group. those loans and bonds, quite likely to be singaporean banks in this. do you see the potential for greater systemic fallout here? ifi would be very surprised it presented a systemic risk, even just a semaphore -- to
singapore. i think that was a situation where markets were not prepared for a large, asian commodity trader to hit the wall and run out of liquidity. i think that the situation is quite different from noble, have a steep glide slope, but nonetheless a glide slope down to where it is now. banks and other parties are well prepared and can absorb the losses. anchor: do you think bankruptcy will be the endgame? >> if i had to pick an outcome, yes. i think that noble files. i don't know if it files in the next two weeks, or it could take significantly longer than that. it is really difficult from the outside at this point to figure out how much value is in the company, but it doesn't seem the to generate cash, and
biggest piece of the puzzle in terms of how long it would take to file is how long the banks keep rolling loans. that is something you would have to ask them. anchor: when did you close your short on this one? 2015,hink we closed it in which is right before -- 2015 was the year we went from only trading internal capital to managing outside capital. in 2015, we had to close out our entire book as we started a new book for our fund management firm. betty: that was the muddy waters ceo speaking with juliette chatterley. the energyack to prices. it will be get to $50 oil? crude holding those gains above 50 bucks a barrel.
optimism grows that opec's output curves are trimming that global glut. let's bring in someone who has been a big voice in commodities. he is the head of global commodities at bank of america-merrill lynch. let's focus on oil right now. one month ago, everyone said forget these forecast on oil prices. they areis discredited not working. did we speak too soon? francisco: i think the change in view that we started in early may was proved to be correct, that the market has become very range bound. below $45 a barrel, we lose .upply above $55 a barrel, we gained two months supply. and it is around $47,
right? francisco: yes, we expect the 45 -- $47 average. you have almost 2 million barrels a day in the u.s. alone. within 12 months, you will have a lot of supply, it prices raise all the way to 55 dollars or $60. i think there will be a little bit of pressure heading into the month of august, where we see big inventory growth. but once you get into the refining, maintenance cycle in september, october, particularly as we enter a huge jump in shale production in the u.s. in the fourth quarter. those are really the fundamentals. there is also geopolitics which have become a lot more front and center. betty: and you think that is priced in here with some of this
tightness? francisco: i don't think so. i think the geopolitics could add a next her five dollars a barrel. we're talking about venezuela. if we go all the way to the saudi, qatari breakdown with sanctions. and also the russian sanctions with the bill the just passed. francisco: all this will build in the background. i am a bit concerned about that. the market is not expecting any sanctions or major disruptions. it leaving again after ramping up. there are issues that could hit the market place the geopolitical front. this risk changes a lot of it. betty: but it does not change your view -- you said opec has lost some credibility here with prices. this does not change your view? francisco: it does not change. if the price of oil gets all the
way until the $55 range, we will have the lowest supply from the u.s. show producers last year. you have almost a 2 billion barrels swing. every dollar is going to be highly contested as we move higher, because producers will come in and start selling more and more barrels. we will be nickeling and diming. francisco, i think we heard that from some of the oil majors as well. the message they send out was $50 crude, we can get by. we will see if exxon, chevron, bp will continue next week, what does that mean for opec? do they need to discuss deeper cuts? francisco: i think opec should stick the course. will lose market
share. this market share is very valuable. in au lose market share, very meaningful way, it will be very hard to make it back up. my sense is that opec will stay the course. the saudi's are trying to put pressure on iraq. we will see her much that works. ecuador has pulled out of the deal. opec is not in a great position. they are trying to end the price war, and how the market rebounds is higher through an increase in price. see wtifinitely do not on an average basis for 2018 much higher than $65 a barrel, for the reasons we discussed. you will have a huge response from the shale producer community. we're looking at ranges of one dollar, two dollar, three dollars. stay with us.
betty: this is "daybreak: asia." i'm betty liu in new york. yvonne: and i am yvonne man. francisco blanch is still with us. we're talking about bitcoin. it going trading is expected to surge above $1 billion. take a look at the wild ride we have seen in that currency. advising investors to because this against a surge in optimism. from the latest
memo to investors that speaks to what you mentioned in your report. i want to bring up this quote. my view, digital currencies are nothing more than an unfounded bad, and maybe a pyramid scheme." what do you make of that view? is that what concerns you the most about bitcoin, that it does not have much value for investors, for the lack of regulation? francisco: we recently released a report analyzing bitcoin from a market perspective, and we look at what makes it a cur rency. is --ency or store value maybe reciprocation. bitcoin scores great on diversification. it happens in the virtual space, and is literally offering zero
correlation to every other asset out there. but the one issue of concern is returns. far, butven great so because of that, extreme diversification's -- you cannot really correlate that going to anything, and it is hard to correlate whether it will go up or down or disappeared. or maybe grow into a bigger market. i think the biggest concern with bitcoin, on top of other issues with which we have seen before. but digital currencies are indeed filling of function. i am not sure i agree with the remarks. there is value in the actual digital currency market, in terms of providing the a smart contract, how people are interacting around the world, the fact that our digital consumption is rising, and you are increasingly able to paper digital
consumption online, whether it is university courses or gaming or whatever it is you are doing. there is more interest on that side. betty: every time a company says they will accept the coin, gives them more edge. is there any trajectory we can compare bitcoin to in another asset? where we can say it went from an and should trade to something that becomes more mainstream? francisco: if you look through history, there are many instances were currencies have shown up and become the dominant force in global trade. silver is the best example. we ended up with silver being the world's currency for nearly four centuries. that is because the spanish went into bolivia and found an enormous mine of silver, which built the scale. that created liquidity, and that became the world currency.
it became the basis for the u.s. silver dollar, and today's dollar is a derivative of the initial silver certificate. if you look at the history of currency, clearly our currencies are somewhat constraining in nature, particularly in a digital world, and i think other currencies are filling a bit of that gap which enables someone in japan to connect with somebody in canada, and be effectively connected to someone in chile. it in context. that is what digital currencies are doing for us. they are connecting the world 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and what i am surprised about with bitcoin is a huge surge in liquidity. you cannot fake that. betty: real money. realisco: real money and
transactions. people are creating it. you can make up a futures contract or create a bond or in equity, but liquidity is hard to create and find. we will see if it grows, for the time being, i think the claim and digital currencies have managed to create something out of nothing, which is not just the value that he is doubtful about, but liquidity is growing very meaningful. francisco, the cftc presents bitcoin options. that?g of a milestone is francisco: i think it is a very important milestone to see how the cftc, which is the u.s. regulator for futures markets, which markets like oil futures are coin futures or interest rates or equity futures, like
the vix, has come out and said we are approving this. i think it is interesting again, it gives another layer of support, but the critical thing for bitcoin in my mind, something we have not seen yet and i am not sure we will see it, it needs to become accepted as acceptable collateral. today, there are many things that are collateral. surplus, even art. homes are collateral. but not bitcoin. bitcoins are taken as collateral, that is when the market can build scale, which means the financial system is becoming more comfortable with the idea of digital currencies. we have not seen it yet, but a critical step in my mind that we are encouraged to see develop in
the space, and possibly more liquidity and volume. stuff. very interesting francisco, thank you. it is the wild wild west of currencies. course, you can get a roundup of stories to get your day going in today's edition of "daybreak." go> in yourdayb < terminal. you can also access it in the bloomberg app. be sure to check it out. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
morning, this is "daybreak: asia." for a few moments earlier today, there was a new name on top the bloomberg billionaires list. jeff bezos is the richest person in the world. ensuing share decline pushed him back down. let's check all that with -- withs poster spencer. he joins us live from seattle. i have an idea that this is not the end of the battle. and bezos has been knocking on the door for a while now and briefly surpassed gates today, and then slipped back to
number two. they had a week profit performance this quarter, so he is probably going to get back down tomorrow, but we will see him rise again. betty: what does this say about jeff bezos's desires and ambitions? it says a lot about amazon itself, and we have seen in terms of a long-term strategy, suchs really made ambitious targets when it comes to online retail and everything alike in terms of investments in the cloud, and it speaks to a growing rise in another self. rolls all of his wealth back into the company. he pays himself about $80,000 a year in salary, so his wealth is not in taking money out of amazon. he pours it back in, so his wealth is based around stock price. you are correct. rs byns over investo
continuing to move the sales numbers up. investing in growth, investing in growth, investing in growth, and that is why investors have grown patient with this low profit margin number. even though there was some disappointment today, the stock did not pull back to much and is up substantially for the year. betty: thank you for joining us today. jeff bezos briefly at the top. i've a feeling it will be too long before we see him back up there again. that is it for "daybreak: asia." $92 billion is what he was worth at the top. it is 1.4 billion away from bill gates. standby for "bloomberg whoooo.
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♪ it is 9:00 a.m. in hong kong. i am david ingles. toshiba slumping as a california judge rules western digital can try to stop the chip sale. retail sales out of japan miss testaments. the boj admitting the 2% target will take longer than thought. haidi: further and further away. i am haidi lun in sydney. more bad news for noble group, bankruptcy may be the only way forward. this is "bloomberg markets: asia." ♪